Courtesy of Doug Short.
The rally in Europe continues and the monthly employment report saw a surprising drop in the unemployment rate. The S&P 500 rallied at the open, but the enthusiasm waned during the day. The decline can perhaps be attibuted to some combination of skepticism over the employment statistics or the decision to book gains after a positive week. In any case the index finished the day essentially flat, down 0.02% but for with a weekly gain of 7.39% — the best gain since the 10.71% gain the week the market bottomed in March 2009.
The index a year-to-date loss of 1.06% and is 8.75% off the interim high of April 29. It remains about 34 points above its 50-day moving average.
From an intermediate perspective, the index is 83.9% above the March 2009 closing low and 20.5% below the nominal all-time high of October 2007.
Below are two charts of the index, with and without the 50 and 200-day moving averages.
For a better sense of how these declines figure into a larger historical context, here’s a long-term view of secular bull and bear markets in the S&P Composite since 1871.
For a bit of international flavor, here’s a chart series that includes an overlay of the S&P 500, the Dow Crash of 1929 and Great Depression, and the so-called L-shaped “recovery” of the Nikkei 225. I update these weekly.
These charts are not intended as a forecast but rather as a way to study the current market in relation to historic market cycles.
