Archive for 2011

Overnight SHIBOR Goes Whoosh

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Just four words for global liquidity watchers: Overnight and 1-Week SHIBOR.

Overnight… yes, this is a 3% (absolute) increase in Overnight interbank lending rates in one day (or for the purists a doubling in the rate from Friday).

1 Week:

Source: Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate





REPO 2011: EURO RoYaLe

Courtesy of williambanzai7

REPO 2011

 

 

.

EURO CONTAINMENT DIAGRAM

 

THE HELLENIC MOONERS THE HELLENIC MOONERS

 

 

EURO ROYALE

"All is for the best, in this best of all possible worlds…" Dr Pangloss--Voltaire’s Candide

 

 

 

GYRO GRIP

 

 

LEXA-PAPANDREOU GREEK CAN

 

WB7: Get my drift? 

TBTF





Another Broker Halts Trading In Gold And Silver Products

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

CMC Markets, a broker out of Australia which offers Contracts For Difference (CFDs), has just formally joined the increasingly larger group headed by Forex.com (discussed on Saturday) which is now advising customers that gold and silver trading will be prohibited in a month. Specifically, CMC has said that beginning July 29, it will no longer offer nor roll any of its existing gold and silver CFDs. What is curious is that unlike Forex.com, which advised clients it is halting comparable trading on July 25 as pertains to spot OTC products (XAU and XAG), CMC’s halt is impacting gold and silver futures. While we still are not confident we understand precisely what span of products is prohibited by Dodd-Frank, it appears that ever more brokers are interpreting the law loosely enough to where practically all gold and silver products will soon be removed from retail participation. Readers, however, can rest assured that the CFTC, which is urgently delaying any of the Frankendodd provisions that impair Wall Street bottom lines, will not move a finger to address or resolve this issue which will suddenly affect millions of retail investors in the US, and around the world.

From CMC Markets:

h/t Steve





Japan Posts Second Biggest Trade Deficit In History

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

For those who may not have noticed it, the headline says “deficit” and pertains to Japan: once upon a time a booming export economy. The reason: the ongoing collapse in export trade, after May exports dropped by 10.3% from a year ago, and just better than April severe economic contraction of 12.4%. Consensus was for an 8.4% decline. The net result was a monthly deficit of 853.7 billion yen, or $10.7 billion, the second biggest inverse surplus ever. And just like in Europe, where things are going to go from insolvent to perfectly solvent any minute now… just not yet… so in Japan the economic renaissance which will cause the economy to surge (unclear how: no new monetary stimulus, and the recently announced fiscal stimulus of Y500 billion in new loans will do precisely nothing to boost anything except for some corrupt bureaucrats Swiss bank accounts) is coming any minute…. just not yet. Bloomberg says: “Shortages of power and parts have disrupted production and slowed overseas sales, prompting Japanese companies including Honda Motor Co. to forecast weaker earnings. Higher unemployment in the U.S. and weakening demand in Asia indicate Japan won’t be able to rely on global demand to pull itself out of a slump caused by the quake.” And the understatement of the weekend comes from BNP economist Azusa Kato: “The state of the global economy is a little worrying. Both the U.S. and Europe aren’t doing that great and emerging economies are also tightening at an incredible pace, increasing uncertainty.” Surely this enough is enough to explain why futures are up, since the Fed has no option but to do QE3. Alas, as the dumber by the minute algos continue to not realize, the market has to plunge from here (just like what crude has been doing for the past 2 weeks), before the Fed gets the greenlight to engage in Operation Twist 2.

More from Bloomberg:

Recent data suggest the economy’s contraction has extended into this quarter. Machinery orders fell 3.3 percent in April, the first decline in four months, a sign companies are reluctant to spend after the March disaster. The unemployment rate climbed and households cut spending in April.

Honda Motor, Japan’s third-largest carmaker, last week forecast a bigger-than-estimated 63 percent decline in full-year profit, citing production disruptions on parts


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Guest Post: The Only Way Forward Is To Accept Reality: Default Is Not The End Of The World

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Submitted by Charles Hugh Smith from Of Two Minds

The Only Way Forward Is to Accept Reality: Default Is Not the End of the World

The catastrophe isn’t default, it’s “extend and pretend.”

Unwelcome crises are part of life. What’s unnatural isn’t crisis, it’s pretending that life should be nothing but a smooth, uninterrupted rise in consumption.

Yes, I’m talking about Greece and the EU. The situation is somewhat analogous to finding out your total cholesterol is over 300. Gee, I thought I was eating well, and was in pretty good shape… alas, that was all wishful thinking; normal is 180. At 300, you’re at serious risk of long-term health problems.

So the European Central Bank injects 120 billion euros of “medicine” to cure you, and a year later your cholesterol readings are 395. Hmm. The “medicine” didn’t work; instead, it actively prolonged and deepened the crisis.

Humans need time to accept new realities, and to make necessary adjustments. People lose their wealth, they adjust. They lose their successful careers, they adjust. They face health crises, they adjust. This kind of wrenching adjustment is not abnormal, it is utterly normal.

Cholesterol at 300 is a crisis. We need to drop that 120 points down to 180. Everything about our lifestyle has to change to deal with this reality. So we go through a period of adjustment to the new reality. Sometimes the adjustment period is wrenching. People have to give up much of their lifestyle. But denying reality doesn’t help, and bemoaning the pain don’t help, either; both of these responses actively hinder the adjustment.

I was interviewed Saturday evening by guest hosts Paul Vigna and Ina Parker on the John Batchelor WABC radio program, and the topic was (unsurprisingly) Greece. Both Paul and Ina asked good questions, and so my primary aim was not to ramble too long or incoherently. (Who knows if I succeeded or not.)

One of their questions spoke directly to the central issue: “If Greece defaults, what happens next?”

I answered that Greece goes through a re-set, a painful but brief period of adjustment, and with the bad debt gone, then the economy would be cleared for new businesses to take root.

The Eurozone debt “crisis” is nothing but another credit cycle, in which debt expands beyond the carrying capacity of consumers and economies. Debt then contracts…
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Next Week’s Key Events: Political Developments In Greece, FOMC and Industrial Surveys In Euroland

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Goldman Sachs summarizes the key events in what promises to be a most exciting week:

First and foremost, last week was marked by substantial political volatility in Greece. After intense political workings over the week that almost caused government instability, a new cabinet was appointed on Friday (June 17) and the Prime Minister will seek a vote of confidence in the parliament over the next few days and no later than Tuesday, June 21 (as local press reports). Should the vote be successful, it would pave the way for the approval of the new austerity measures over the following few days and remove hurdles towards the disbursement of the next IMF/EU tranche of the existing program. The Prime Minister also continues to invite the main parties to overcome their divisions and work on a national consensus.

The Eurogroup Finance Ministers are meeting Sunday night and Monday (June 19-20), while a G7 conference call on Greece is scheduled for Sunday night as well. Germany has already softened its position regarding private sector participation in a second Greek support package. More headlines with respect to the Greece rescue can be expected in the coming days. The upcoming week will also be marked by the EU summit of Heads of State towards the end of the week.

Beyond Greece the two key events are the FOMC meeting and press conference, which will be interesting, given the Fed currently faces a challenging deterioration in the growth-inflation trade-off.

Finally, cyclical data disappointed last week, further adding evidence of a “soft patch” with the Philly Fed and the U of Michigan consumer confidence reports printing below consensus. Next week, we will find out whether European survey data and US durable goods orders confirm this trend of cyclical deceleration or whether they point to cyclical divergence across the Atlantic.

Overall, we maintain a reasonably constructive stance across our FX recommendations, with long exposure in Asia (PHP, MYR, CNY), and expect further broad Dollar weakness. This also includes EUR/$ where the currently emerging compromise on additional Greek funding and reforms should warrant a gradual decline in the fiscal risk premium. Finally, we remain concerned about the current account position in Turkey and will watch the CBRT meeting on Thursday (June 23). [Translation: Goldman is now desperate to get its clients to short the USD...]

Monday 20th

Hungary Monetary Policy
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Agrium Increases Q2 EPS Guidance: $4.10-4.40 vs. $3.38-3.88 Prior

Courtesy of Benzinga

“>

Agrium (NYSE: AGU) cites strong retail performance and crop fundamentals for the increase in Q2 guidance. The company announced today that it expects to earn between $4.10 to $4.40 diluted earnings per share on continuing operations in the second quarter of 2011, or $5.12 to $5.42 for the first half of 2011. The significant increase from the previous guidance of $3.38 to $3.88 diluted earnings per share from continuing operations for the second quarter is due to very strong Retail performance and increasing nutrient pricing supported by continued strong crop fundamentals.

The guidance excludes any additional impact from second quarter share-based payment expense or mark-to-market gains or losses on natural gas or other commodity hedge positions.

“The strength in our earnings outlook is due to excellent performance from all three of our business units, which is particularly impressive given that the North American spring planting season has been hampered by excessively cold and wet weather this year. Record global crop prices are driving demand for all crop inputs, and Agrium’s strategic investment across the global agricultural value chain is capturing the benefits from the strength in these underlying fundamentals,” said Mike Wilson, Agrium President and CEO.





Agrium Increases Q2 EPS Guidance: $4.10-4.40 vs. $3.38-3.88 Prior

Courtesy of Benzinga

“>

Agrium (NYSE: AGU) cites strong retail performance and crop fundamentals for the increase in Q2 guidance. The company announced today that it expects to earn between $4.10 to $4.40 diluted earnings per share on continuing operations in the second quarter of 2011, or $5.12 to $5.42 for the first half of 2011. The significant increase from the previous guidance of $3.38 to $3.88 diluted earnings per share from continuing operations for the second quarter is due to very strong Retail performance and increasing nutrient pricing supported by continued strong crop fundamentals.

The guidance excludes any additional impact from second quarter share-based payment expense or mark-to-market gains or losses on natural gas or other commodity hedge positions.

“The strength in our earnings outlook is due to excellent performance from all three of our business units, which is particularly impressive given that the North American spring planting season has been hampered by excessively cold and wet weather this year. Record global crop prices are driving demand for all crop inputs, and Agrium’s strategic investment across the global agricultural value chain is capturing the benefits from the strength in these underlying fundamentals,” said Mike Wilson, Agrium President and CEO.





Agrium Increases Q2 EPS Guidance: $4.10-4.40 vs. $3.38-3.88 Prior

Courtesy of Benzinga

“>

Agrium (NYSE: AGU) cites strong retail performance and crop fundamentals for the increase in Q2 guidance. The company announced today that it expects to earn between $4.10 to $4.40 diluted earnings per share on continuing operations in the second quarter of 2011, or $5.12 to $5.42 for the first half of 2011. The significant increase from the previous guidance of $3.38 to $3.88 diluted earnings per share from continuing operations for the second quarter is due to very strong Retail performance and increasing nutrient pricing supported by continued strong crop fundamentals.

The guidance excludes any additional impact from second quarter share-based payment expense or mark-to-market gains or losses on natural gas or other commodity hedge positions.

“The strength in our earnings outlook is due to excellent performance from all three of our business units, which is particularly impressive given that the North American spring planting season has been hampered by excessively cold and wet weather this year. Record global crop prices are driving demand for all crop inputs, and Agrium’s strategic investment across the global agricultural value chain is capturing the benefits from the strength in these underlying fundamentals,” said Mike Wilson, Agrium President and CEO.





Agrium Increases Q2 EPS Guidance: $4.10-4.40 vs. $3.38-3.88 Prior

Courtesy of Benzinga

Agrium (NYSE: AGU) cites strong retail performance and crop fundamentals for the increase in Q2 guidance. The company announced today that it expects to earn between $4.10 to $4.40 diluted earnings per share on continuing operations in the second quarter of 2011, or $5.12 to $5.42 for the first half of 2011. The significant increase from the previous guidance of $3.38 to $3.88 diluted earnings per share from continuing operations for the second quarter is due to very strong Retail performance and increasing nutrient pricing supported by continued strong crop fundamentals.

The guidance excludes any additional impact from second quarter share-based payment expense or mark-to-market gains or losses on natural gas or other commodity hedge positions.

“The strength in our earnings outlook is due to excellent performance from all three of our business units, which is particularly impressive given that the North American spring planting season has been hampered by excessively cold and wet weather this year. Record global crop prices are driving demand for all crop inputs, and Agrium’s strategic investment across the global agricultural value chain is capturing the benefits from the strength in these underlying fundamentals,” said Mike Wilson, Agrium President and CEO.





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Auto Shares Surge As Fiat, Renault Confirm Merger Talks

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

With President Trump in Japan for a state visit and most of Europe headed to the polls to vote in the quinquennial EU Parliamentary elections, there was enough news to keep market watchers occupied during what was supposed to be a quiet holiday weekend in the US. 

But on top of these political headlines, on Saturday afternoon, the news broke that Italian-American carmaker Fiat Chrysler had approached France's Renault with a merger proposal that would leave the shareholders of each carmaker with half of the combined company, in a tie-up that would create the world's third-largest au...



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Phil's Favorites

Trump and the problem with pardons

 

Trump and the problem with pardons

Courtesy of Andrew Bell, Indiana University

As a veteran, I was astonished by the recent news that President Trump may be considering pardons for U.S. military members accused or convicted of war crimes. But as a scholar who studies the U.S. military and combat ethics, I understand even more clearly the harmful long-term impact such pardons can have on the military.

My researc...



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Insider Scoop

Jefferies Sees 60-Percent Upside In Aphria Shares, Says Buy The Dip

Courtesy of Benzinga.

After a red-hot start to 2019, Canadian cannabis producer Aphria Inc (NYSE: APHA) has run out of steam, tumbling more than 31 percent in the past three months.

Despite the recent weakness, one Wall Street analyst said Friday that the stock has 30-percent upside potential. 

The Analyst

Jefferies analyst ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...



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Chart School

Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!


Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

This is a classic! ha!







Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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