Archive for 2011

Overnight SHIBOR Goes Whoosh

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Just four words for global liquidity watchers: Overnight and 1-Week SHIBOR.

Overnight… yes, this is a 3% (absolute) increase in Overnight interbank lending rates in one day (or for the purists a doubling in the rate from Friday).

1 Week:

Source: Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate





REPO 2011: EURO RoYaLe

Courtesy of williambanzai7

REPO 2011

 

 

.

EURO CONTAINMENT DIAGRAM

 

THE HELLENIC MOONERS THE HELLENIC MOONERS

 

 

EURO ROYALE

"All is for the best, in this best of all possible worlds…" Dr Pangloss--Voltaire’s Candide

 

 

 

GYRO GRIP

 

 

LEXA-PAPANDREOU GREEK CAN

 

WB7: Get my drift? 

TBTF





Another Broker Halts Trading In Gold And Silver Products

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

CMC Markets, a broker out of Australia which offers Contracts For Difference (CFDs), has just formally joined the increasingly larger group headed by Forex.com (discussed on Saturday) which is now advising customers that gold and silver trading will be prohibited in a month. Specifically, CMC has said that beginning July 29, it will no longer offer nor roll any of its existing gold and silver CFDs. What is curious is that unlike Forex.com, which advised clients it is halting comparable trading on July 25 as pertains to spot OTC products (XAU and XAG), CMC’s halt is impacting gold and silver futures. While we still are not confident we understand precisely what span of products is prohibited by Dodd-Frank, it appears that ever more brokers are interpreting the law loosely enough to where practically all gold and silver products will soon be removed from retail participation. Readers, however, can rest assured that the CFTC, which is urgently delaying any of the Frankendodd provisions that impair Wall Street bottom lines, will not move a finger to address or resolve this issue which will suddenly affect millions of retail investors in the US, and around the world.

From CMC Markets:

h/t Steve





Japan Posts Second Biggest Trade Deficit In History

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

For those who may not have noticed it, the headline says “deficit” and pertains to Japan: once upon a time a booming export economy. The reason: the ongoing collapse in export trade, after May exports dropped by 10.3% from a year ago, and just better than April severe economic contraction of 12.4%. Consensus was for an 8.4% decline. The net result was a monthly deficit of 853.7 billion yen, or $10.7 billion, the second biggest inverse surplus ever. And just like in Europe, where things are going to go from insolvent to perfectly solvent any minute now… just not yet… so in Japan the economic renaissance which will cause the economy to surge (unclear how: no new monetary stimulus, and the recently announced fiscal stimulus of Y500 billion in new loans will do precisely nothing to boost anything except for some corrupt bureaucrats Swiss bank accounts) is coming any minute…. just not yet. Bloomberg says: “Shortages of power and parts have disrupted production and slowed overseas sales, prompting Japanese companies including Honda Motor Co. to forecast weaker earnings. Higher unemployment in the U.S. and weakening demand in Asia indicate Japan won’t be able to rely on global demand to pull itself out of a slump caused by the quake.” And the understatement of the weekend comes from BNP economist Azusa Kato: “The state of the global economy is a little worrying. Both the U.S. and Europe aren’t doing that great and emerging economies are also tightening at an incredible pace, increasing uncertainty.” Surely this enough is enough to explain why futures are up, since the Fed has no option but to do QE3. Alas, as the dumber by the minute algos continue to not realize, the market has to plunge from here (just like what crude has been doing for the past 2 weeks), before the Fed gets the greenlight to engage in Operation Twist 2.

More from Bloomberg:

Recent data suggest the economy’s contraction has extended into this quarter. Machinery orders fell 3.3 percent in April, the first decline in four months, a sign companies are reluctant to spend after the March disaster. The unemployment rate climbed and households cut spending in April.

Honda Motor, Japan’s third-largest carmaker, last week forecast a bigger-than-estimated 63 percent decline in full-year profit, citing production disruptions on parts


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Guest Post: The Only Way Forward Is To Accept Reality: Default Is Not The End Of The World

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Submitted by Charles Hugh Smith from Of Two Minds

The Only Way Forward Is to Accept Reality: Default Is Not the End of the World

The catastrophe isn’t default, it’s “extend and pretend.”

Unwelcome crises are part of life. What’s unnatural isn’t crisis, it’s pretending that life should be nothing but a smooth, uninterrupted rise in consumption.

Yes, I’m talking about Greece and the EU. The situation is somewhat analogous to finding out your total cholesterol is over 300. Gee, I thought I was eating well, and was in pretty good shape… alas, that was all wishful thinking; normal is 180. At 300, you’re at serious risk of long-term health problems.

So the European Central Bank injects 120 billion euros of “medicine” to cure you, and a year later your cholesterol readings are 395. Hmm. The “medicine” didn’t work; instead, it actively prolonged and deepened the crisis.

Humans need time to accept new realities, and to make necessary adjustments. People lose their wealth, they adjust. They lose their successful careers, they adjust. They face health crises, they adjust. This kind of wrenching adjustment is not abnormal, it is utterly normal.

Cholesterol at 300 is a crisis. We need to drop that 120 points down to 180. Everything about our lifestyle has to change to deal with this reality. So we go through a period of adjustment to the new reality. Sometimes the adjustment period is wrenching. People have to give up much of their lifestyle. But denying reality doesn’t help, and bemoaning the pain don’t help, either; both of these responses actively hinder the adjustment.

I was interviewed Saturday evening by guest hosts Paul Vigna and Ina Parker on the John Batchelor WABC radio program, and the topic was (unsurprisingly) Greece. Both Paul and Ina asked good questions, and so my primary aim was not to ramble too long or incoherently. (Who knows if I succeeded or not.)

One of their questions spoke directly to the central issue: “If Greece defaults, what happens next?”

I answered that Greece goes through a re-set, a painful but brief period of adjustment, and with the bad debt gone, then the economy would be cleared for new businesses to take root.

The Eurozone debt “crisis” is nothing but another credit cycle, in which debt expands beyond the carrying capacity of consumers and economies. Debt then contracts…
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Next Week’s Key Events: Political Developments In Greece, FOMC and Industrial Surveys In Euroland

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Goldman Sachs summarizes the key events in what promises to be a most exciting week:

First and foremost, last week was marked by substantial political volatility in Greece. After intense political workings over the week that almost caused government instability, a new cabinet was appointed on Friday (June 17) and the Prime Minister will seek a vote of confidence in the parliament over the next few days and no later than Tuesday, June 21 (as local press reports). Should the vote be successful, it would pave the way for the approval of the new austerity measures over the following few days and remove hurdles towards the disbursement of the next IMF/EU tranche of the existing program. The Prime Minister also continues to invite the main parties to overcome their divisions and work on a national consensus.

The Eurogroup Finance Ministers are meeting Sunday night and Monday (June 19-20), while a G7 conference call on Greece is scheduled for Sunday night as well. Germany has already softened its position regarding private sector participation in a second Greek support package. More headlines with respect to the Greece rescue can be expected in the coming days. The upcoming week will also be marked by the EU summit of Heads of State towards the end of the week.

Beyond Greece the two key events are the FOMC meeting and press conference, which will be interesting, given the Fed currently faces a challenging deterioration in the growth-inflation trade-off.

Finally, cyclical data disappointed last week, further adding evidence of a “soft patch” with the Philly Fed and the U of Michigan consumer confidence reports printing below consensus. Next week, we will find out whether European survey data and US durable goods orders confirm this trend of cyclical deceleration or whether they point to cyclical divergence across the Atlantic.

Overall, we maintain a reasonably constructive stance across our FX recommendations, with long exposure in Asia (PHP, MYR, CNY), and expect further broad Dollar weakness. This also includes EUR/$ where the currently emerging compromise on additional Greek funding and reforms should warrant a gradual decline in the fiscal risk premium. Finally, we remain concerned about the current account position in Turkey and will watch the CBRT meeting on Thursday (June 23). [Translation: Goldman is now desperate to get its clients to short the USD...]

Monday 20th

Hungary Monetary Policy
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Agrium Increases Q2 EPS Guidance: $4.10-4.40 vs. $3.38-3.88 Prior

Courtesy of Benzinga

“>

Agrium (NYSE: AGU) cites strong retail performance and crop fundamentals for the increase in Q2 guidance. The company announced today that it expects to earn between $4.10 to $4.40 diluted earnings per share on continuing operations in the second quarter of 2011, or $5.12 to $5.42 for the first half of 2011. The significant increase from the previous guidance of $3.38 to $3.88 diluted earnings per share from continuing operations for the second quarter is due to very strong Retail performance and increasing nutrient pricing supported by continued strong crop fundamentals.

The guidance excludes any additional impact from second quarter share-based payment expense or mark-to-market gains or losses on natural gas or other commodity hedge positions.

“The strength in our earnings outlook is due to excellent performance from all three of our business units, which is particularly impressive given that the North American spring planting season has been hampered by excessively cold and wet weather this year. Record global crop prices are driving demand for all crop inputs, and Agrium’s strategic investment across the global agricultural value chain is capturing the benefits from the strength in these underlying fundamentals,” said Mike Wilson, Agrium President and CEO.





Agrium Increases Q2 EPS Guidance: $4.10-4.40 vs. $3.38-3.88 Prior

Courtesy of Benzinga

“>

Agrium (NYSE: AGU) cites strong retail performance and crop fundamentals for the increase in Q2 guidance. The company announced today that it expects to earn between $4.10 to $4.40 diluted earnings per share on continuing operations in the second quarter of 2011, or $5.12 to $5.42 for the first half of 2011. The significant increase from the previous guidance of $3.38 to $3.88 diluted earnings per share from continuing operations for the second quarter is due to very strong Retail performance and increasing nutrient pricing supported by continued strong crop fundamentals.

The guidance excludes any additional impact from second quarter share-based payment expense or mark-to-market gains or losses on natural gas or other commodity hedge positions.

“The strength in our earnings outlook is due to excellent performance from all three of our business units, which is particularly impressive given that the North American spring planting season has been hampered by excessively cold and wet weather this year. Record global crop prices are driving demand for all crop inputs, and Agrium’s strategic investment across the global agricultural value chain is capturing the benefits from the strength in these underlying fundamentals,” said Mike Wilson, Agrium President and CEO.





Agrium Increases Q2 EPS Guidance: $4.10-4.40 vs. $3.38-3.88 Prior

Courtesy of Benzinga

“>

Agrium (NYSE: AGU) cites strong retail performance and crop fundamentals for the increase in Q2 guidance. The company announced today that it expects to earn between $4.10 to $4.40 diluted earnings per share on continuing operations in the second quarter of 2011, or $5.12 to $5.42 for the first half of 2011. The significant increase from the previous guidance of $3.38 to $3.88 diluted earnings per share from continuing operations for the second quarter is due to very strong Retail performance and increasing nutrient pricing supported by continued strong crop fundamentals.

The guidance excludes any additional impact from second quarter share-based payment expense or mark-to-market gains or losses on natural gas or other commodity hedge positions.

“The strength in our earnings outlook is due to excellent performance from all three of our business units, which is particularly impressive given that the North American spring planting season has been hampered by excessively cold and wet weather this year. Record global crop prices are driving demand for all crop inputs, and Agrium’s strategic investment across the global agricultural value chain is capturing the benefits from the strength in these underlying fundamentals,” said Mike Wilson, Agrium President and CEO.





Agrium Increases Q2 EPS Guidance: $4.10-4.40 vs. $3.38-3.88 Prior

Courtesy of Benzinga

Agrium (NYSE: AGU) cites strong retail performance and crop fundamentals for the increase in Q2 guidance. The company announced today that it expects to earn between $4.10 to $4.40 diluted earnings per share on continuing operations in the second quarter of 2011, or $5.12 to $5.42 for the first half of 2011. The significant increase from the previous guidance of $3.38 to $3.88 diluted earnings per share from continuing operations for the second quarter is due to very strong Retail performance and increasing nutrient pricing supported by continued strong crop fundamentals.

The guidance excludes any additional impact from second quarter share-based payment expense or mark-to-market gains or losses on natural gas or other commodity hedge positions.

“The strength in our earnings outlook is due to excellent performance from all three of our business units, which is particularly impressive given that the North American spring planting season has been hampered by excessively cold and wet weather this year. Record global crop prices are driving demand for all crop inputs, and Agrium’s strategic investment across the global agricultural value chain is capturing the benefits from the strength in these underlying fundamentals,” said Mike Wilson, Agrium President and CEO.





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Johns Hopkins, Bristol-Myers Face $1 Billion Suit For Infecting Guatemalan Hookers With Syphilis 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A federal judge in Maryland said Johns Hopkins University, pharmaceutical company Bristol-Myers Squibb and the Rockefeller Foundation must face a $1 billion lawsuit over their roles in a top-secret program in the 1940s ran by the US government that injected hundreds of Guatemalans with syphilis, reported Reuters.

Several doctors from Hopkins an...



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Phil's Favorites

This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen"

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018.

By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS, although on many months the (balance sheet) B/S does not actually shrink by this full amount which depends on the redemption schedule) and by end-Q4 markets also experienced some of the largest volatility and drawdowns in nearly a decade.

As Nomura&...



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ValueWalk

The Competition For Capital Has Made Stocks Cheap

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The new year is upon us, and now is the time many investors look at what 2018 was and prepare for what 2019 might be. Recession jitters are starting to pick back up again, especially now that the full picture of 2018 is in the books. But what if you could pick only one theme for 2018? Jefferies strategist Sean Darby and team have a suggestion which is especially timely given that it appears to mark the end of an era.

StockSnap / PixabayVolatility carries into the new year

This past year was one of extremes, and the markets ended i...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stock declines did not break 9-year support, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We often hear “Stocks take an escalator up and an elevator down!” No doubt stocks did experience a swift decline from the September highs to the Christmas eve lows. Looks like the “elevator” part of the phrase came true as 2018 was coming to an end.

The first part of the “stocks take an escalator up” seems to still be in play as well despite the swift decline of late.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- All of these indices hit long-term rising support on Christmas Eve at each (1), where support held and rallies have followed.

If you find long-term perspectives helpf...



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Digital Currencies

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

 

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

Blockchain technologies can empower people by allowing them more control over their user data. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ajay Kumar Shrestha, University of Saskatchewan

Blockchain has already proven its huge influence on the financial world with its first application in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It might not be long before its impact is felt everywhere.

Blockchain is a secure chain of digital records that exist on multiple computers simultaneously so no record can be erased or falsified. The...



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Insider Scoop

Cars.com Explores Strategic Alternatives, Analyst Sees Possible Sale Price Around $30 Per Share

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related 44 Biggest Movers From Yesterday 38 Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Mid-Day Session ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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