Archive for 2011

43,454,601,693,238 Reasons Why The World Is Broke – Presenting The Interactive Global Debt Clock

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

By now everyone has had a chance to play with the US debt clock. But what about its global cousin? Courtesy of The Economist, we now have a convenient way to track the hundreds of millions in dollars added each and every hour by the global governments who see to spur global deleveraging by, you guessed it, adding more debt. Yes, in the process the world’s sovereigns are transferring default risk away from global corporations to sovereigns, but few in the #OWS crowd appear to have yet figured out this rather disturbing and very insidious usurpation of sovereignty by the global corporatocracy, so said risk and leverage transfer will continue until such time as any and all paper backed by these insolvent corporate shells (f/k/a countries) is completely worthless. Regardless, one should not forget that like in the sandalone case, the “debt clock” below only tracks on balance sheet debt. Should one add the NPV of all “welfare state” obligations (pensions, retirement, healthcare), the number will be well over quarter of a quadrillion dollars. Have fun funding that, never mind paying it off…

From the Economist:

The clock is ticking. Every second, it seems, someone in the world takes on more debt. The idea of a debt clock for an individual nation is familiar to anyone who has been to Times Square in New York, where the American public shortfall is revealed. Our clock shows the global figure for all (or almost all) government debts in dollar terms.

 

Does it matter? After all, world governments owe the money to their own citizens, not to the Martians. But the rising total is important for two reasons. First, when debt rises faster than economic output (as it has been doing in recent years), higher government debt implies more state interference in the economy and higher taxes in the future. Second, debt must be rolled over at regular intervals. This creates a recurring popularity test for individual governments, rather as reality TV show contestants face a public phone vote every week. Fail that vote, as the Greek government did in early 2010, and the country can be plunged into imminent crisis. So the higher the global government debt total, the greater the risk of fiscal crisis, and the bigger the economic impact such crises will have.

h/t ReboilRoom





Jim Rogers Tells Kudlow: “I’m MUCH More Of A Capitalist Than You Are Larry…”

Courtesy of The Daily Bail

MUST SEE – Jim Rogers Tells Kudlow: "I’m MUCH More Of A Capitalist Than You Are Larry, Let The Damn Banks FAIL! Why Are We Saving The Bondholders!"

CNBC Video – Kudlow and Jimmy Rogers – Oct. 11, 2011

Runs 3 minutes.  Kudlow says it’s a done deal that Greece will fail and predicts massive QE from the Fed and the ECB.  Rogers calls Bernanke a liar.  This is a great clip. 





Free Trade Or Fair Trade? 20 Reasons Why All Americans Should Be Against The Insane Trade Policies Of The Globalists

Courtesy of Michael Snyder of Economic Collapse

It is absolutely amazing how many Americans are still convinced that more "free trade" is the answer to our economic problems.  The truth is that there is a vast difference between "free trade" and "fair trade", and in this article I will prove that all true conservatives and all true liberals should be completely against the insane trade policies of the federal government. 

Yes, we will always need to trade with other nations.  Other nations make or have things that we need to trade for.  Balanced trade relationships with other nations that have similar economies and that share similar values can be very beneficial.  For example, our trading relationship with Canada, though not perfect, is generally beneficial to both sides.  However, the United States also has dozens of trading relationships that are highly destructive to the U.S. economy. There are some predatory nations that are blatantly and openly cheating and everyone can see it.  They are getting away with bloody murder and they are robbing us blind. 

The United States of America is being taken advantage of, and as a result thousands of good businesses are being destroyed and millions of good jobs are being lost.  If you are an American and you are in favor of all of the unfair trade that is currently going on, then either you don’t know much about economics or you actually want to see the U.S. economy be destroyed.

Congress has just passed new free trade agreements with South Korea, Colombia and Panama.  The Obama administration has also made "the NAFTA of the Pacific" a very high priority.…
continue reading





Guest Post: Yet Another Reason Why the Euro Is Doomed

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Charles Hugh Smith from Of Two Minds

Guest Post: Yet Another Reason Why the Euro Is Doomed

The euro crisis is already concrete in everyday life in the debtor nations, but it remains abstract in the donor nations. Imposing hardship on the northern citizenry to “save” the euro is politically impossible because the “gains” from the hardship are theoretical while the hardships will be immediate and real.

I have previously discussed the many profound financial reasons why the euro is doomed. But there is another political/financial reason why the euro’s unraveling is inevitable. To understand this dynamic, we must start with this reality: in the wealthy countries of the north, the crisis is abstract; there is so much wealth and apparent financial stability, the notion that some sort of real-world hardship could actually spread from the southern Eurozone to the north is simply impossible to grasp.

In the nations impacted directly by the crisis, there is nothing abstract about the unraveling; it is now part of everyday experience.

We can distill this profound disconnect between the abstract (northern member nations) and the concrete (southern member nations) down to a simple question: how can leaders of still prosperous nations to whom the crisis is completely abstract in terms of daily life possibly make the kinds of decisions needed to impose hardship on their populations for a “cause”--”saving the euro”--which has no apparent connection to their everyday lives?

The answer is that it will be impossible for political leaders to impose hardships in the real world (higher taxes, austerity, etc.) for “gains” (saving the euro) which are invisible and abstract.

The costs of austerity and much higher taxes needed to fund trillions of euros of bank/sovereign bailouts will be immediately felt by the taxpayers and citizens of the northern “donor” nations, while the supposed gains reaped by saving Euroland banks and bondholders from any losses are at best theoretical: in practice, the real benefits would flow from forcing the banks into recognizing their insolvency and by writing off all the bad debt in the Eurozone, effectively wiping out the banks and bondholders.

Erasing debt also erases assets. But if the debt can never be paid, then the asset has already ceased to exist in every way but a bogus accounting entry.

My interview with
continue reading





Yet Another Reason Why the Euro Is Doomed

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Charles Hugh Smith from Of Two Minds

Guest Post: Yet Another Reason Why the Euro Is Doomed

The euro crisis is already concrete in everyday life in the debtor nations, but it remains abstract in the donor nations. Imposing hardship on the northern citizenry to "save" the euro is politically impossible because the "gains" from the hardship are theoretical while the hardships will be immediate and real.

I have previously discussed the many profound financial reasons why the euro is doomed. But there is another political/financial reason why the euro’s unraveling is inevitable. To understand this dynamic, we must start with this reality: in the wealthy countries of the north, the crisis is abstract; there is so much wealth and apparent financial stability, the notion that some sort of real-world hardship could actually spread from the southern Eurozone to the north is simply impossible to grasp.

In the nations impacted directly by the crisis, there is nothing abstract about the unraveling; it is now part of everyday experience.

We can distill this profound disconnect between the abstract (northern member nations) and the concrete (southern member nations) down to a simple question: how can leaders of still prosperous nations to whom the crisis is completely abstract in terms of daily life possibly make the kinds of decisions needed to impose hardship on their populations for a "cause"--"saving the euro"--which has no apparent connection to their everyday lives?

The answer is that it will be impossible for political leaders to impose hardships in the real world (higher taxes, austerity, etc.) for "gains" (saving the euro) which are invisible and abstract.

The costs of austerity and much higher taxes needed to fund trillions of euros of bank/sovereign bailouts will be immediately felt by the taxpayers and citizens of the northern "donor" nations, while the supposed gains reaped by saving Euroland banks and bondholders from any losses are at best theoretical: in practice, the real benefits would flow from forcing the banks into recognizing their insolvency and by writing off all the bad debt in the Eurozone, effectively wiping out the banks and bondholders.

Erasing debt also erases assets. But if the debt can never be paid, then the asset has already ceased to exist in every way but a bogus accounting entry.

My interview with Max Keiser and Stacy
continue reading





10 Essential Fiscal Charts Demonstrating America’s Disastrous Condition

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

By now nobody should have any doubts as to just how disturbing America’s fiscal debacle is. For those naive and innocent few who still think there is a Hollywood ending with a pot of gold awaiting everyone at the end of the rainbow, we present the following "10 essential fiscal charts" from the Pew Policy Institute.

To be sure, these are all charts summarizing data that has appeared on Zero Hedge repeatedly over the years in some way shape or form. Pew does, however, have a flair for dramatic visual presentation. In Pew’s own words: "Since April 2010, the Pew Fiscal Analysis Initiative has published several reports explaining the medium-and long-term fiscal challenges facing the federal government. With stagnating economic conditions and the passage of new legislation, especially the Budget Control Act of 2011, the outlook for the deficit and debt has changed considerably over the past six months. We have created 10 charts that illustrate how the choices made over the last 10 years contributed to our nation’s debt and the challenges currently facing the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction." So without further ado…

Source: Pew 





Morgan Stanley’s Japanese JV Supports Euroexposed Bank… By Cutting 20% Of Its Workforce

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Remember when Morgan Stanley pulled out the kitchen sink two weeks ago in support of its surging CDS (which incidentally will be the sole reason for the bank’s “surprising” EPS beat when the bank pulls a DV(D)A page right out of JPMorgan’s playbook) by enlisting the support of Japanese JV Mistubishi UFG with promises that it would never let its bigger US brother down? Well, we now have the first indication of just “how” said plan will look like. As Reurters reports, the JV “is planning to cut 1,200 to 1,300 jobs, or about 20 percent of the total workforce, a source familiar with the matter said on Monday. A spokesman at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley said his firm made a call for early retirements earlier this month but declined to say how many workers responded. A previous call for early retirements in February cut about 270 jobs. The company had about 6,600 employees at the end of March.” And there you have it. With supporting JV partners such as these, who needs CDS vigilantes, or the difference between gross and net exposure when bilateral netting is discovered to be the biggest fraud ever?





Guest Post: America’s Wealth-Defined Society

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Ben Tanosborn

America’s Wealth-Defined Society

Many of us wonder whether the Occupy Wall Street movement will continue to grow and establish roots, to offer some hope for change… or whether it will be stopped and smothered… not by the Fat-Cats represented in that odious One Percent, but by the Squires, that Nineteen Percent of enforcers, or bystanders, of predatory capitalism that has taken over America; what is now Corporate America.  The Squires are the only middle-class left in the United States today, even if there are many others who illusorily think of themselves as middle-class, not wanting to be included in a bottom 80 percent, the place where they belong if only they would wake up to reality, set aside their pride.

For almost three generations most anyone in America considered themselves to be part of that mythical middle-class.  Lower class was a term seldom mentioned; only people down on their luck and one-third or more of blacks and browns living in virtual poverty, belonged to that class swept under the rug.  Be that as it may, the majority of Americans by most any standard were affluent enough not to worry about the many wealth rungs in the socio-economic ladder, or where they stood in it.

However, political economics during the past three decades have helped create greater inequality, much greater wealth differences between lower and higher rungs.  And, what may be even worse, it also helped erase the upward economic mobility it once existed in the lower rungs, where 80 percent of the nation’s population resides.  Such mobility has completely disappeared.  Ronald Reagan made greed a top virtue for Americans, and much of the population was ready to live by that creed.  But as it turned out, only a small percentage was successful at it – and not entrepreneurially but predatorily – most others still smarting from a real estate bubble, as acquisition of a home mortgage was dabbed part of the American dream… what should have been called the American nightmare.

The Occupy Wall Street movement, whether by art or by design, has been careful not to make their common cause one of a struggle between classes, and that has been, at least initially, a wise thing.  Having said that, however, it would be wise and survivalist for them to realize…
continue reading





Two Big Reasons You Should Still Worry About This Market

Courtesy of Joe Weisenthal of The Business Insider

red flag madrid spain may

Image: Wikimedia Commons

With stocks bouncing back, and the economy showing signs of not dying, you may be tempted to finally relax a little bit, and get some sleep, feeling confident that 2011 is more likely to be a replay of 2010 than 2008. 

Maybe.

But even amidst the positive energy of the past two weeks there were red flags popping up.

The first is extreme correlation: Even on the good days, EVERYTHING that’s not the dollar is going up. We keep pointing this out, that gold, for example, has been doing the exact same thing as stocks day in and day out. But it’s not just that. Gold, Swiss Franc, the euro, equities, copper, silver, etc. all moving the same in lockstep. One day the dollar is down and they’re all up, and one day the dollar is up and they’re all done.

The general belief is that extreme correlation is a sign of market pressure — of an unhealthy market that wants to snap.

And in fact there are others signs of this as well.

Various measures of funding strain, like LIBOR rates, continue to shoot up, with no slowdown, basically ever since the beginning of August.

chart

Of course, a little perspective is needed on this front. We’re still nowhere near as bad as where things were the great financial crisis.

chart

Bottom line though: There ARE signs of worsening strain on the system, persisting even as things have gotten better over the last few days. Until you see correlations fade and some of these bank funding measures improve, better not turn your back.

 





Chinese M2 Growth Dropping To 9 Year Low Means More Pain In Store For SHCOMP

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

When it comes to the gyrations in the stock market, there are those who, quite foolishly as of late, believe that market moves are driven by such arcania as fundamentals and/or technicals, or, much more relevant lately, are purely a function of overall liquidity in the system. Which brings us to China where unlike the US, the stock market has been in full on collapse mode until last Monday when the government, rightfully so, decided to bail out its own banks while letting European ones fend for themselves. Yet, unfortunately for China bulls such as Jim O’Neill, we have some bad news: the core indicator of overall systemic liquidity, M2, just tumbled to a 9 year low as of Friday, printing at 13% on expectations of 14%. Not only that, but the direct loans in the financial system, dropped far below the 550Bn CNY estimate, at just 470Bn, the lowest since December 2009. Granted, this is all “on the books” stuff (yes, we know, we know, communist regime and goal-seeked econometrics – check), so who the hell knows what is happening with the uncontrollable shadow banking system. Well, nobody, but since robots only have overt data to play with, regardless of how manipulated it may be, the following two charts will probably be a wake up call to anyone expecting a China driven “risk renaissance” absent the PBoC deciding to do away with its inflation-fighting regime, and launching into print speed ahead (something several hundred millions migrant workers would not be delighted with).

China M2 Change…

And M2 vs SHCOMP YoY change.

charts: Bloomberg





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Enemy Of The People?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Via The Zman blog,

There has never been a time when normal people did not know the media was biased and biased in a predictable direction. For every non-liberal in the media, there were at least ten liberals. The ratio was probably higher, but then, as now, some lefties liked to pretend they were independents or some third option.

The media used to invest a lot of time denying they had a bias and an agenda, but the only people who believed them were on the Left, which had the odd effect of confirming they had a bias and an agenda.

...



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Phil's Favorites

A 2019 Earnings Recession?

 

A 2019 Earnings Recession?

Courtesy of 

Shout to Leigh!

On the new Talk Your Book – Josh Brown is joined by Leigh Drogen of Estimize, one of the leading providers of crowdsourced financial and economic data to talk about the trend in corporate profits that could potentially lead to an earnings recession later this year.

What is the thing that Leigh is seeing in the data that Wall Street isn’t yet picking up on? What segment of the stock market is most at risk? Why is the crowd smarter than the narrow consensus of Wall Street analysts?

Check out Estimize ...



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ValueWalk

D.E. Shaw Investment Calls For Leadership Change At EQT

By ActivistInsight. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Elliott Management has offered to acquire QEP Resources for approximately $2.1 billion, contending the oil and gas explorer’s turnaround efforts have done little to lift the company’s share price. The company responded and said that a thorough review of the proposition is imperative in order to properly act in the best interests of shareholders, “taking into account the company’s other alternatives and current market conditions.” The news came only a month after Travelport Worldwide agreed to sell itself to Siris Capital Group and Elliott’s private equity arm Evergreen Coast Capital for $4.4 billion in cash and two months after Athenahealth was bought by Veritas and Evergreen for $5.7 bi...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold & Silver Testing Important Breakout Levels!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Gold and Silver from a long-term perspective have created a series of lower highs over the past 8-years. Will 2019 bring a change to this trend? A big test is in play!

Gold since the lows in 2016 has created a series of higher lows, while Silver may have created a double bottom.

Gold & Silver are currently facing break attempts a (1) and (2). These falling resistance lines have disappointed metals bulls for the past few years.

The direction of Gold and Silver weeks and months from now should be highly influenced by what each does as they are attempting to break above important resistance levels.

To become a member of Kimbl...



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Insider Scoop

UBS Says Disney's Streaming Ambition Gives It A 'New Hope'

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related DIS Despite Some Risks, Analysts Still Expecting Double Digit Growth From Communications Services In Q4 ...

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Digital Currencies

Russia Prepares To Buy Up To $10 Billion In Bitcoin To Evade US Sanctions

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

While the market has been increasingly focused on the rising headwinds in the global economy in general, and China's economic slowdown in particular, while the media is obsessing over daily revelations that Trump may or may not have colluded with Russia to get elected, a far more critical, if underreported, shift has been taking place over the past year.

As we reported in June, whether due to concerns over draconian western sanctions and asset confiscations following the poisoning of former Russian military officer Sergei Skripal, or simply because it wanted to diversify away from the dollar, Russia liquidated virtually all of its Treasury holdings in the late spri...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's failure based on his personality, which was evident years ago. This article, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump became president, in July, 2016, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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