Archive for 2011

Find A Job? Good Luck In This Economy – 10 Reasons Why The Latest Unemployment Numbers Are No Reason To Cheer

Courtesy of Michael Snyder of Economic Collapse

The U.S. government is telling us that the unemployment rate fell all the way down to 9.0% in January.  Should we all cheer?  Is it now going to be a lot easier to find a job?  Has the economy finally turned around?  Are happy days here again?  Well, it is a good thing to have a positive attitude, but the truth is that there is just not much to cheer about when you take a closer look at the recent unemployment numbers.  First of all, the U.S. economy only added 36,000 jobs in January.  Economists had been expecting an increase of about 145,000 jobs, and an increase of 150,000 jobs per month is necessary just to keep up with population growth. 

So why did the unemployment rate go down?  Well, the government says that over half a million Americans suddenly dropped out of the labor force in January.  That doesn’t make a lot of sense, but this is how the government calculates their numbers.  So what happened to those 500,000 Americans?  Did they all win the lottery?  Have they all become independently wealthy?  Did they all die?  No, the vast majority of them are still around and the vast majority of them still desperately need jobs.  It is just that the government does not count them as "looking for work" anymore.

It would be great if the employment situation in America actually was getting better.  All the time people send me absolutely heartbreaking stories about what they have had to endure in this economy.  Soon I hope to share some of those stories with you all.  It is hard to try to describe the absolute horror that many Americans are going through right now.

People would like to believe that things are going to get better, but unfortunately that is just not going to be the case.  The government can try to massage the numbers to make them look better, but the truth is that the tens of millions of American families that are deeply suffering right now are not fooled.

The following are 10


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1,000 Years of Forgetting

By  The Technium

1,000 Years of Forgetting

Beatles3000

One thousand years from now, much of what we know will be forgotten. That’s been true in the past. We have only a fragmentary cultural memory of what happened 1,000 years ago. And what we think we know about 1000 may in fact be quite garbled. In a very witty demo of this, this youtube clip, the Beatles 3000, imagines how corrupted our current ideas of "what everone knows" will most likely be in 10 centuries. Ever heard of the Beatles?  (Thanks, Mark)





HD Twilight Landing At LAX (Cockpit View)

Very cool video and song combination. 

Come on, come on
It’s alive and breathing
Come on, come on
Come alive today
(This city’s killing me)
Come on, come on
It’s a heartless beating
The sun is burning down Los Angeles (one more holiday)

The sun is burning down Los Angeles (I will not celebrate)

Sugarcult, Los Angeles

 HD Twilight Landing At LAX (Cockpit View)





Coming to your city…Naples, Florida

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

One of my many pleasures doing the blog is the relationships I have established around the globe. I am honored and humbled when a viewer says “if your ever in my town, lets get together.”

A group of investors in Naples, Florida has ask me to come down and conduct a private meeting this Thursday evening, February 10th.

 I have decided to  conduct a “Power of the Pattern/Technical Analysis” workshop this Thursday afternoon, from 3:45 to 5:15. The meeting will be held at the Premier Executive Center,  1419 Panther Lane, Naples, Florida 34109. ( 239.591.6617) To cover the cost of the room, I will be charging $30 per person for the hour and a half workshop. Seating will be limited. 

Please RSVP by Wednesday evening to Kimblechartingsolutions@gmail.com if you would like to attend or would like further details about the workship.





Graham Summers Free Weekly Market Forecast (Euro Reversal Edition)

Courtesy of Phoenix Capital Research

Well, the Euro hit my target to a “T” at 137.5 last week. Indeed, the European currency just poked its head above this line before falling back below it again. Having gone nowhere but up since early January, this move represents not only the Euro’s first correction of any real size, but ALSO a reversal week: a week in which a security hits a new high before falling.

 

This reversal is even more noticeable on the weekly chart, though the correction is not a sharp one… yet.

 

 

Indeed, if this correction picks up speed, it will trigger the developing Head and Shoulders pattern I’ve been noting for several weeks. As readers well know, I believe the Euro will no longer exist in its current form within a year.

On that note it’s worth considering that should this H&S pattern be confirmed, the downside target is 118: the exact low from the June ’10 collapse. However, I think we’ll be breaking even this line and seeing the Euro at new lows below 118 before we get through the first half of 2011.

 

This would result in the US Dollar staging a sizable rally, not because the US’s financial position somehow improved, but simply because the Euro accounts for over 50% of the US Dollar index. So any collapse in the European currency will push the US Dollar higher.

This in turn would hurt the commodities space, which continues to move as anti-inflation hedges. However, I want to be clear here. I would not view a rally in the US Dollar as negating my forecast for massive inflation, if not hyperinflation within the next two years.

Indeed, we’ve already seen asset prices explode higher WITHOUT the Dollar falling.

 

These gains occurred at a time when the US Dollar didn’t fall a CENT. So the idea that you need the US Dollar to collapse in order for inflation to hit is a lie. However, at some point, the Euro collapse will end.…
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Oil has joined the Past… NG is the Future!

This is very interesting.  I’d be interested to know what others think about it. – Ilene 

Courtesy of Jack H Barnes (writing at Zero Hedge

The natural gas cartel, a dream of Russia’s just a few years ago, is dead. It died when a natural gas revolution broke out and Gazprom lost.  Energy importing nations around the world are evaluating their own geology, currently, to see if they have shale reserves that can be tapped.  Nations like Argentina, Germany, Poland, France, and Sweden are looking into their national shale reserves.

The shale gas revolution is changing the world we live in, and the power structures of the past.  It is also quickly changing the politics of future energy relationships.  Nations that had to be nice to an exporter, due to energy supplies, will be freed of their need for discretion.

Shale gas is quite simply changing the whole energy paradigm in real time.  The unlocking of source rock, has altered the future history of mankind.  The world has discovered and unlocked its newest true world changing source of stored energy.

  • In the 1700’s, the world used wood for its energy source. The great mansions were heated with wood.
  • In the 1800’s, coal provided the go-to source of transportable fuel.   It allowed railroads to rapidly move people at a pace faster than a horse. Coal powered the Industrial Revolution.
  • In the 1900’s, crude oil became the primary fuel.  It was refined into fuel for aircraft, for ships at sea and into gasoline and diesel.  Crude oil provided the necessary cheap energy to fuel the rapid expansion of civilization to the rest of the world.
  • The 2000’s arrived with the onset of peak light sweet crude oil.  The US had peaked in overall oil production decades before, and as the new century started its reserves in both oil and conventional natural gas where shrinking.

It was in this situation, that a group of small O&G companies, starting with Mitchell and working separately to start, but building on knowledge learned in the field, figured out how to unlock the natural gas in the Barrett shale formation in Texas.

The technology was soon adapted to oil shale wells in the Bakken formation along the Montana/North Dakota border.  These two events have changed how the oil & gas industry looks at resources today.  Shale, depending on type, can…
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Sparrow’s Belch in a Typhoon

Courtesy of Bruce Krasting

Who knows where the headline risk will come from this week. It could be a surprise number from one of the many releases. I’m looking for hot inflation numbers from all around the globe. We might have a riot someplace new that gets people’s attention. There has been a lot of that lately. Hard to believe it is just going to fade. One area that might get some press (and move prices around) is the President’s budget.

This budget covers the period 10/1/2011 through 9/30/2012. That makes this all about elections. That being the case don’t expect to see any evidence of that “fiscal responsibility” we keep hearing about.

That’s not to say that the Administration won’t make a big deal of some big cutbacks they will propose. We got a whiff of that from the Presidents budget director Jacob Lew. He listed $750mm of savings that will be proposed in a NYT OpEd piece.

The billion or so of savings will not make a dent in the growing expenditure line. Depending on where the revenue estimates are made the deficit will come in around $1.2 T (1.5T in 2011). Depending on how honest the numbers are, the media is going to have a field day, and so will the Republicans. While the notion of another mega deficit in 2012 is not a surprise on Wall Street it is not going to over so well on Main street. But what can the President do? Answer: Nothing.

One character in this drama is Alan Simpson. The former Co-head of the Deficit Commission is 80 years old and has a very bad habit of saying things that color the debate. He did it again recently. But as whacky as this guy is, he is right. There is no way the US is going to make any dent in the deficit unless Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and the Military (“the Big Four or BF”) are put on the table and sliced up. The discretionary budget comes to only 10% of outlays. There is no room to make big changes. Simpson had this to say about cuts outside of the BF: (Bloomberg link


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The “Risk On” Lemming Stampede – LCMGroupe February Market Commentary

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Below, we present the February market commentary courtesy of Gordon T Long/LCMGroupe.

Paper abstract:

We are experiencing unprecedented moves in financial equity markets as a direct result of the US Federal Reserve money printing operations. The Federal Reserve is no longer operating as the traditional "Lender of Last Resort" but rather is now experimenting in untested waters as the "Buyer of First Resort".  Everything is being done by the US government to restore consumer confidence in an attempt to restart the US economy, which even after trillions of government spending, lending and guarantees is at best lethargic. Employment is no longer just a US problem as systemic growth and rebalancing issues face the entire globe. These issues are acute enough to now be seen to be igniting social unrest in many countries other than just the EU.


The "Risk On" Lemming Stampede (pdf link)

 

Those wishing to receive automated market updates can sign up for a free 3 month trial subscription by e-mailing:  lcmgroupe@comcast.net with "MMU" in the subject heading





Guest Post: Silver Breaks Its Golden Shackles

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

From Adrian Douglas Of Market Force Oracle

Silver Breaks its Golden Shackles

On September 21, 2010 I published an article entitled “More Forensic Evidence of Gold & Silver Price Manipulation”. In that article I showed how silver from 2003 to 2010 had never traded freely at all; I showed that silver was algorithmically traded with gold and there was a very clear relationship between the price of gold and the price of silver. For those who haven’t read the previous article the following figure 1 (figure 4 in the previous article) demonstrates the inter-relationship.

Figure 1 Cross-plot of Silver versus Gold 2003-2010

Figure 1 is a cross-plot of the price of gold against the price of silver for every trading day from June 2003 to September 2010. There are two linear relationships, one is pre-2008 (black line) and the second is post 2008 (green line). The best fit equations for the two data sets are also given on the chart.

The stunning revelation from the data analysis was that if on any day I knew what the price of gold was I would be able to calculate the silver price from the equation of the relationship! How is that possible in a free market? It simply is not possible and so the conclusion is that silver is not in a free market but is manipulated to move algorithmically with the price of gold. I have written many articles that show that gold is itself manipulated and suppressed (for example, see Gold Market is not “Fixed”, it’s Rigged)

I have updated the chart of Figure 1 which is shown in Figure 2

Figure 2 Cross-plot of Silver versus Gold 2003-2011

Since September 2010 silver has broken its golden shackles. The algorithmic trading that kept the price of silver subdued for seven years has been completely annihilated.

On Friday silver closed in complete backwardation on the Comex. Spot silver closed at $29.075/oz while FEB 2011 closed at $29.064/oz and DEC 2015 closed at $29.026/oz. I believe this is the first time in history that this has happened. Silver traded in backwardation between the spot price and futures contract up to one year out during the blatantly manipulative precious metals bashing of January, but now the entire futures structure is in backwardation. This is a sure sign there are shortages of…
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Corn Prices To Soar As Chinese Imports Increase Ninefold Compared To Official Projections

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Cotton, wheat, rice, and now corn. If revised Chinese import estimates by the US Grain Council are even remotely correct, look for corn prices of $6.80 a bushel at last check to jump by at least 15% in a very short amount of time. As the FT reports, “Corn prices – and with them, the price of meat – are set to explode if the latest import estimates from China are correct. The US Grain Council, the industry body, said late on Thursday that it has received information pointing to Chinese imports as high as 9m tonnes in 2011-12, up from 1.3m in 2010-11.” Why is this a concern? Because “the US Department of Agriculture, which compiles benchmark estimates of supply, demand and stocks, forecast Chinese imports at just 1m tonnes in 2011-12.” In other words, the whole forecast supply-demand equilibrium is about to be torn to shreds. And all this excludes the impact of neverending liquidity by the one and only, which will only make the speculative approach to surging corn relentless.

For those who think that there is any even remote hope of a respite in the endless climb in prices, we suggest reading the following:

The most China has imported in modern history is 4.3m tonnes in 1994-95 and 3m tonnes in 1978-79. For most of the past 50 years, Beijing has been largely absent from the international market, as domestic production was enough to meet demand.

But Terry Vinduska, the chairman of the council, said after visiting China that “estimates given to us were that China is short of 10m-15m tonnes in stocks and will need to purchase corn this year”. He pointed to about 9m tonnes in imports. “We learned the government normally keeps stocks at 30 per cent but they are currently a little over 5 per cent, which may lead to imports of 3m-9m tonnes.”

It is not the first warning of forthcoming massive imports. Recently, David C. Nelson, at Rabobank, one of the world’s largest lenders to the global agribusiness industry, warned that because China’s animal protein industry is so large, the order of magnitude of China shifting to become a net importer of corn could possibly be measured in tens of millions of tonnes, and in just a few years time.

“We note that China could


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Zero Hedge

Americans' Economic Hope Has Collapsed

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Which came first, the confidence or the stock market rally?

One thing is for sure, the crash in stocks in December has crushed the hope of Americans that their economic future is going to be better under President Trump.

Overall confidence dipped to 58.1 - a 4-month low, but, U.S. consumers this month were the most downbeat on the economy since November 2016, a third straight drop after expectations reached a 16-year high just three months earlier, as the partial government shutdown wears on toward a fourth week.

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Triple Breakout Test In Play For S&P 500!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the rally of late about to run out of steam or is a major breakout about to take place in the S&P 500? What happens at current prices should go a long way in determining this question.

This chart looks at the equal weight S&P 500 ETF (RSP) on a daily basis over the past 15-months.

The rally from the lows on Christmas Eve has RSP testing the top of a newly formed falling channel while testing the underneath side of the 2018 trading range and its falling 50-day moving average at (1).

At this time RPS is facing a triple resistance test. Wil...



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Phil's Favorites

Brexit deal flops, Theresa May survives -- so what happens now?

 

Brexit deal flops, Theresa May survives -- so what happens now?

Courtesy of Victoria Honeyman, University of Leeds

As the clock ticks down to March 29 2019, all of the political manoeuvring, negotiating, arguing and fighting is coming to a peak. In the two and a half years since the 2016 EU referendum, views on both sides have hardened and agreement still seems as far away as it was the day after the referendum.

With Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement disliked by all sides, and voted down by an unprecedented majority in the House of Commons, everyone is wondering what can and should be done next?

...



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Digital Currencies

Crypto-Bubble: Will Bitcoin Bottom In February Or Has It Already?

Courtesy of Michelle Jones via ValueWalk.com

The new year has been relatively good for the price of bitcoin after a spectacular collapse of the cryptocurrency bubble in 2018. It’s up notably since the middle of December and traded around the psychological level of $4,000... so is this a sign that the crypto market is about to recover?

Of course, it depends on who you ask, but one analyst discovered a pattern which might point to a bottom next month.

A year after the cryptocurrency bubble popped

CCN...



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ValueWalk

D.E. Shaw Investment Calls For Leadership Change At EQT

By ActivistInsight. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Elliott Management has offered to acquire QEP Resources for approximately $2.1 billion, contending the oil and gas explorer’s turnaround efforts have done little to lift the company’s share price. The company responded and said that a thorough review of the proposition is imperative in order to properly act in the best interests of shareholders, “taking into account the company’s other alternatives and current market conditions.” The news came only a month after Travelport Worldwide agreed to sell itself to Siris Capital Group and Elliott’s private equity arm Evergreen Coast Capital for $4.4 billion in cash and two months after Athenahealth was bought by Veritas and Evergreen for $5.7 bi...



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Insider Scoop

UBS Says Disney's Streaming Ambition Gives It A 'New Hope'

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related DIS Despite Some Risks, Analysts Still Expecting Double Digit Growth From Communications Services In Q4 ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>