Courtesy of Doug Short.
With a somewhat lower than consensus Q4 GDP, the S&P 500 sagged at the open and wallowed in shallow red through most of the day. A modest afternoon rally gave hope of a positive finish, and the index did make it into the green in the final 30 minutes. But a selloff near the close gave Friday a fractional loss of 0.16%. For the week the index gained a meager 0.07%. The index has a year-to-date gain of 4.67%. It is 3.47% below its interim high at the end of April 2011.
From an intermediate perspective, the S&P 500 is 94.6% above the March 2009 closing low and 15.9% below the nominal all-time high of October 2007.
Below are two charts of the index, with and without the 50 and 200-day moving averages.
For a better sense of how these declines figure into a larger historical context, here’s a long-term view of secular bull and bear markets in the S&P Composite since 1871.
For a bit of international flavor, here’s a chart series that includes an overlay of the S&P 500, the Dow Crash of 1929 and Great Depression, and the so-called L-shaped “recovery” of the Nikkei 225. I update these weekly.
These charts are not intended as a forecast but rather as a way to study the current market in relation to historic market cycles.
