Courtesy of Doug Short.
Despite the upward revision to Q4 GDP, the S&P 500 ended its four-day winning streak with a loss of 0.47%. After all, Q4 GDP is old news, right? And Chairman Bernanke’s congressional testimony didn’t help matters: He made no promise of further easing and offered a sobering opinion that the housing market “remains far from normal.” Today’s loss puts the year-to-date gain at 8.59%, and CNBC heralded the achievement with a post-close headline: S&P 500 Logs Best Start to Year Since 1991.
From an intermediate perspective, the S&P 500 is 101.9% above the March 2009 closing low and 12.7% below the nominal all-time high of October 2007.
Below are two charts of the index, with and without the 50 and 200-day moving averages.
For a better sense of how these declines figure into a larger historical context, here’s a long-term view of secular bull and bear markets in the S&P Composite since 1871.
These charts are not intended as a forecast but rather as a way to study the current market in relation to historic market cycles.
