Courtesy of Doug Short.
Note from dshort: Here is an update on the Nikkei 225, prompted by the fact that on Friday the index went negative for the year, down 0.18%, after hitting a 2012 year-to-date peak of 21.29% on March 27th.
Here is a look at the Nikkei 225 which gives an overview of the cyclical rallies and their duration during Japan’s secular bear market, now in its 22nd year.
The table below documents the advances and declines and the elapsed time for the major cycles in the Nikkei.
Japan’s Q4 Real GDP -0.7%
The latest Real GDP from Japan is through Q1, which came in at a 4.1% compounded annual rate of change, a sharp rebound from 0.1 revised Q4 GDP. Japan’s GDP has been oscillating since the devastating quake and tsunami of Q1 2011.
Here is a revealing snapshot of real GDP showing the percent off the most recent peak across time. The underlying calculation is to show peaks at 100% on the left axis. The callout shows the percent off as of the most recent GDP release.
Note: The “recessions” highlighted in the third chart above are based on the OECD Composite Leading Indicators Reference Turning Points and Component Series. I use the peak-to-trough version of data (peak month begins the gray, trough month is excluded), which is conveniently available in the FRED repository. As we can readily see, the OECD concept of turning points is much broader than the method used by the NBER to define recessions in the US.
