Courtesy of Mish.
I am amused by the Shadow Weekly Leading Index Project which claims the probability of recession is 31%. I think it is much higher.
When the NBER, the official arbiter of recessions finally backdates the recession, May or June of 2012 appear to be likely months. Let’s take a look at why.
US Manufacturing PMI
Markit reports PMI signals weakest manufacturing expansion in 11 months
Key points:
- PMI lowest since July 2011, suggesting slower rate of manufacturing expansion
- Rate of output growth broadly unchanged
- New orders rise at weakest pace in four months
- Input costs fall for first time in three years
Durable Goods Orders Plunge
Those numbers do not look good but they are hardly disastrous. Here are some numbers that are disastrous.
Philly Fed Survey
For the second consecutive the Philly Fed Survey has been solidly in the red….
