Courtesy of Doug Short.
All eight of the world indexes on my watchlist saw weekly volatility, ranging from one to three days each of a one percent plus move — up or down. But the average of the eight was a flat finish 0f 0.03%. Two of the Asia-Pacific indexes took the top and bottom spots. The Nikkei was the best performer with a 2.67% gain, and the Shanghai Composite was the worst, dropping 1.99% and thus beating the nearby Hang Seng’s 1.24% decline to secure a solid last place.
In the aftermath of last Sunday’s Greek vote. Greece’s Athens Index, not on our watchlist, surged another 8.59% last week. It is now sports a 27.72% gain off its historic low of June 5th.
The table inset in the chart below shows that, unchanged from last week, five of the eight markets are in bear territory — the traditional designation for a 20% decline from an interim high. The BSE SENSEX sits just 80 basis points above the bear threshold. Like last week, the FTSE 100 is now 9.48% off its interim high, about half a percent above the “correction” level (a decline of 10%), which is an improvement over its -10.06% correction level last Friday.
As for YTD performance, here is a table showing the 2012 peak percentage gains, sorted in that order, and current YTD gains for the eight indexes. Despite last week’s gains, the gap between 2012 highs and the YTD performance clearly highlights the worldwide volatility in equities so far this year.
A Closer Look at the Last Four Weeks
The tables below provide a concise overview of performance comparisons over the past four weeks for these eight major indexes. I’ve also included the average for each week so that we can evaluate the performance of a specific index relative to the overall mean and better understand weekly volatility. The colors for each index name help us visualize the comparative performance over time.
The chart below illustrates the comparative performance of World Markets since March 9, 2009. The start date is arbitrary: The S&P 500, CAC 40 and BSE SENSEX hit their lows on March 9th, the Nikkei 225 on March 10th, the DAX on March 6th, the FTSE on March 3rd, the Shanghai Composite on November 4, 2008, and the Hang Seng even earlier on October 27, 2008. However, by aligning on the same day and measuring the percent change, we get a better sense of the relative performance than if we align the lows.
A Longer Look Back
Here is the same chart starting from the turn of 21st century. The relative over-performance of the emerging markets (Shanghai, Mumbai SENSEX, Hang Seng) is readily apparent.
Check back next weekend for a new update.
Note from dshort: At the suggestion of Joerg Willig, a finance professional in Germany, I replaced the DAX index, which includes dividends, with the price-only DAXK, which is consistent with the other indexes.
