Courtesy of Doug Short.
Each Friday I post an update on the public release of data from the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). Dwaine van Vuuren, CEO of RecessionAlert.com, and his collaborators, including Georg Vrba and Franz Lischka, have developed a powerful recession forecasting methodology that shows promise of making forecasts with fewer false positives, which I take to include excessively long lead times, such as ECRI’s September 2011 recession call.
Here is Dwaine’s 2nd estimate and alert level posted yesterday in advance of Friday’s ECRI’s weekly update.
| Thursday 26 July 2012, 2nd estimate : The Shadow WLI is 122.2 with a growth metric of -1.82. The lower estimate for ECRI’s posting on Friday 27th July is WLI= 121.94/WLIg= -1.95 and the upper estimate is WLI= 122.44/WLIg= -1.72. Since the WLIg is now above its recession trigger of -2.64, we downgraded alert status from DEFCON-3 to DEFCON-4. |
For a detailed discussion, visit Dwaine’s Shadow Weekly Leading Index Project on his website.
