Trying the Tops on Tuesday - As Usual

Seriously, this is 4 Tuesday's in row – is anyone seeing a pattern?

Of course this Tuesday we are 100 Dow points lower than we were last Tuesday and the BS pre-market pump job at 6am has already faded (7:30) although we're still working short bets on the Russell futures (/TF) and the Euro (EUR/USD) from 813 and $1.256 as I put up a note in early morning Member Chat as we spiked on – get this – the news that Draghi cancelled his appearance at Jackson Hole this weekend.

Why would it be good that Draghi is NOT going to the last Central Bankster conference of the year but the buzz is that he MUST be so close to a masterful solution to all of Europe's problems that he can't be bothered to gather with his brother bankers on the eve of his triumph. The announcement was timed to coincide (10 minutes before) bond auctions by Spain ($2Bn 3-month notes at 0.95%) and Italy ($3.75Bn of 2-year notes at 3.06%) and the Euro jumped 0.7% into the auction – lowering the effective rates and both auctions were a "success".

That pulled the EU markets off the floor (still down half a point at 8am) and got the US futures out of the red zone as we finally pushed the Dollar under that pesky 81.50 line, goosing the indexes and commodities. Unfortunately, it's just a sugar rush and we've already run out of steam but I'm sure someone will start another rumor around 9:15 to get us back to green into the open.

As I said last Tuesday, with the Dollar at 81.50 we're looking for adjusted levels of: Dow 13,464, S&P 1,428, Nasdaq 3,060, NYSE 8,160 and Russell 816 and we held the Nasdaq yesterday but that was all so no reason to capitulate on our bearish stance just yet. Last Tuesday we also discussed 3 more trades (there we 3 the Tuesday before) to make 300% if the market did break higher and our first batch had several 100% winners so let's see how our 3 new trades did in a downtrend:

2 FAS Oct $107/117 bull call spreads at $2.05, selling 1 BBY 2014 $15 puts for $3.75 for net .35 is now net $1.52 – up 334%
AGQ Oct $38/45 bull call spread at $3.10, selling BTU 2014 $20 puts for $3.60 for net .50 credit, now $1.18 – up 236%
3 DIA Oct $135 calls at $4.05, selling 1 HPQ 2014 $20 put for $3.80 for net .25, now -$2.56 – down 924%

HPQ had a rough week, dropping 20% and that killed that trade, which was the most leveraged of the 3 but not a bad consolation on the first two considering the market moved against us. Of course, setting a stop somewhere before you have a 100% loss can save you a fortune in these situations as well! We never did made our levels and, as we discussed yesterday, our bearish positions had a fabulous week so the hedges certainly did their job.

Obviously, we take the money and run on the first two hedges and there's no need for 3 new hedges when the DIA spread can now be played with 2 DIA Oct $135 calls at $1.23 selling the HPQ $15 puts for $2.30 for net .16 and, if you don't mind owning HPQ for net $15.16 (12% off the current $17.21 price), then there's not much to worry about on this trade but, as I said last week – we are NOT bullish and these are just small hedges against our generally bearish bets.

Realistically, if we played all 3 spreads with even distributions, we laid out .10 in cash and the two winners made $2.70 while the loser dropped $2.56 so, even without stopping out the loser, we're no worse for the wear on the drop. A great example of why all your eggs should never go in one basket.

Speaking of broken egg baskets – check out this Bespoke chart of the Shanghai Composite – what a mess! Our stock indexes are currently back where China was in late 2007-early 2008 and a lot of the reason we're back there is the way we're so enthusiastic about potential expansion into China and the growing Chinese demand for our goods and services and swelling Chinese Middle Class and the endless Chinese demand for commodities and…. hey, what's that smell? Smells like BS to me…

You can read 100 articles and the Punditocracy on the MSM can hit those talking points until they are blue in the face but this chart is A FACT! The Shanghai is down 66.6% from the top and anyone on TV using CHINA as a reason to be bullish should be given a few hundred volts through is chair! What if the US market looked like this and people tried to tell you how great things were? Would you say "well, that certainly not what I see here but, if you say so – it must be true"? Just because the MSM assumes you're an idiot, doesn't mean you have to invest like one.

Despite the "great" bond auction this morning, the rats are leaving the sinking ship of state in Spain at an ever-accelerating pace. The chart on the left shows the outflows from Spanish banks, where deposits fell 4.7% in July alone. A few more months like this and there won't be any banking system left to save!

Spain's once-wealthy Catalonia region has officially requested an emergency liquidity injection of $6.5B this morning from Madrid's sadly insufficient bailout fund. Don't worry Spain, Germany says CHINA will buy up all your debts (not a joke, sadly). Spain officially admitted they are in a recession today as Q2 GDP fell 1.3% after falling 0.6% year/year in Q1 and is projected to fall further in Q3.

At this point, even the Swiss are running out of money, and patience, as the SNBs policy of supporting the Euro at all costs. The SNB is currently holding 230 Billion Euros, which is 1/2 of their entire GDP, adding 34Bn in July alone. If not for Swiss support, the Euro would surely be at $1.20 or less – even against the weak Dollar. "The minimum price is not for eternity," said SNB's Jordan, "this is an extreme measure for an extreme situation." Any sudden removal of this support can have a sudden and devastating effect on the Euro.

Just ahead of the open we're getting our predicted pre-market re-pump and that's fine with us because – we don't care IF the game is rigged as long as we can figure out HOW the game is rigged and place our bets accordingly. The Russell bottomed out at 808 – up $500 per Futures contract and the Euro hit $1.24, which doesn't seem like a big move (.016) but it's $10 per .001 so up $160 per contract on that one and that is how we pay for our Egg McMuffins.

Now we get to sit back and watch the fun!

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stjeanluc

Member

August 28, 2012 11:28 am

The irony is just so sweet…

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/08/28/1135281/dead-parrot-sketch/

“I’m really sick of this government giving away our taxes to those corrupt Greeks,” said the owner of a pet shop in Amsterdam who asked not to be identified by name because he does not declare all his income to the authorities.

August 28, 2012 11:30 am

Add one continent to the list of problems:

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/08/28/1134681/is-australia-in-the-same-boat-as-europe/

The crisis-stricken economies along the eurozone periphery share one key characteristic: their external debt is too high and their net international investment position (NIIP) – measuring the difference in stock value between assets held abroad and asset held domestically by foreigners – is deeply negative. Yet, a closer look and you will find Australia and its neighbour New Zealand in the same company, with negative NIIP well above countries such as Turkey and Brazil.

revtodd64

August 28, 2012 11:32 am

Phil – Just in case you thought there are not women at the GOP Convention:
http://www.theonion.com/articles/gop-convention-to-feature-strong-lineup-of-conserv,29339/

Pharmboy

August 28, 2012 11:42 am

FWIW….not that we are uninformed….Paul McCulley, the former legendary economist and fund manager at PIMCO, who was once being touted to join the Fed as a policymaker, told me last year at the Altegris-Mauldin conference, the YoY trend in the three-month moving average of core capex orders had for a long time been his preferred indicator of how the broader economy was going to fare a few quarters into the future. Well, if you are bullish on U.S. growth prospects over the near-term, I suggest you look at the chart below.

Notice how the YoY trend just sliced below the zero-line in July (to -1.7% from +1.1% in June).Only once in the past did this NOT tip the overall economy into recession and that was back in September 1998 when the Asian crisis was at its peak, LTCM had to be wound up and Russia defaulted … not exactly a pretty sign even if the recession was delayed for another two years.

In terms of sectors, it was order declines in machinery, electrical equipment and communications equipment that far outpaced gains in metals, autos, aircraft, and computers.”

rainman

August 28, 2012 11:47 am

IBM Envisions Watson as Supercharged Siri for Businesses

August 28, 2012 11:48 am

Unclaimed Corpse Indicator (and 37 Others):

The Concept: Because of high funeral costs, family members never claim the bodies of the deceased so the state will pay for costs.

The Proof: In 2009, at the height of the financial crisis when non-farm payrolls were falling by more than half a million a month, Detroit logged a massive increase in the number of unclaimed bodies at its morgue. State payouts for burials nearly doubled over a two month period compared to just a year earlier.

shadowfax

August 28, 2012 11:51 am

IWM is looking really bad 80.40 line would not be good and that FIB is 80.26. Phil your hold call is solid in my book.

Phil

Author

August 28, 2012 11:53 am

Tampa strippers encourage GOPers to party like a liberal

But if past conventions are any indicator, Republicans are likely to outspend Democrats heavily at topless bars and strip clubs, says Angelina Spencer. She heads the Association of Club Executives, an organization for the nation’s 4,000 “gentleman’s club” owners. The group talked to members in the host cities of past conventions.

“When we compared spending,” Spencer notes, “the average showed Republicans spending $150 per person at an adult club, versus Democrats, who averaged $50 a person.”

Asked about the notion of Republicans patronizing strip clubs, convention spokesman James Davis told CNN, “We’re focused on having a great convention and nominating Mitt Romney.”

Some clubs hired more dancers or installed extra ATM machines. Some spent money on renovations or put the Republican logo on their signs.

While Tea Party favorite and former Alaska governor Sarah Palin won’t be there to address the convention, her porn star impersonator was in Tampa to undress for anyone not adhering to their family values.

Australia/StJ – Without Asia growth they are screwed.

Things That Shouldn't Be Said In Modern Society To Be Said At Least 1,400 Times At RNC

“It’s almost as if these people are unaware that the Enlightenment, the scientific revolution, various civil rights movements, and the entirety of social progress over the previous several centuries even occurred,” Wright added.

Scholars also affirmed that sentiments relating to economic opportunity, natural resources, and human culture that should never exit a person’s mouth would in fact be chanted in unison throughout the convention, easily bringing the total count of grossly inappropriate utterances into the hundreds of thousands.

According to the vast majority of experts contacted, such bizarrely out-of-date concepts, if ever fully acted upon, would nullify scores of generations of human advancement.

“If this gathering were held in the 1700s or 1800s, a certain fraction of the comments they will make on issues like religion and commerce might be considered somewhat appropriate by people of the time,” anthropologist Gregory Switzer said. “But much of what is said at the RNC about fairness and the treatment of fellow human beings in need, for example, is far more consistent with the very beginnings of rudimentary social empathy in our species dating back to the earliest emergence of human civilization some 10,000 years ago, when our barely developed ancient ancestors would literally smash each other’s skulls in with large rocks without a care or second thought.”

In stark contrast, scholars noted, several hundred things that desperately needed to be said in modern society would be uttered throughout next week’s Democratic National Convention by gutless speakers who would not possess anything remotely close to the strength or resolve needed to act on them

ROFL – I love that article!

Lance Armstrong Lets Down Single Person Who Still Believed Him

RNC Builds Levee Out Of Poor People To Protect Convention Site

Capex/Pharm – More scary stuff…. Corpse indicator funny. Huge drop-off in trash too – all bad signs.

Mining stocks are starting to feel the pain:

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e20eb9f4-ef6a-11e1-9580-00144feabdc0.html#axzz24rAorAEq

Ms Bartels argues that management teams’ ability to control costs will become more important given the subdued price outlook. “Mining groups may not be able to control their revenues but they can control their costs,” she says.

The danger is that miners – as they did in the prolonged downturn of the 1990s – cut too drastically leaving themselves short of manpower and growth opportunities come the recovery.

“Cost control is not about slash and burn,” says Ms Bartels, “but being smarter about what they chose to do and how they do it, whether they are riding commodity highs or lows.”

dclark41

August 28, 2012 11:58 am

Phil
Are you thinking that no stimulus will come (in September)? Or, that it may or may not come, but even if it does it has lost it's effectiveness (sans a very short term pop upon announcement)? I have become a moderately short (SQQ,VXX, USO) against some very long term positions. I have been effectively neutered to a little baby on the sidelines sucking his thumb watching the big boys play!

aussie260

August 28, 2012 12:01 pm

stjeanluc/australia. aussie banks made 35b npat this past year, very profitable. australia has floating fx rate so banks not reliant on offshore for liquidity. however, they are reliant for term preference. internal economy is still relatively ok but external position is not. currency is way overvalued

August 28, 2012 12:07 pm

This market will continue to until it

August 28, 2012 12:15 pm

Phil
Do you have a link to the actual words repeated?

August 28, 2012 12:16 pm

dclark – I noted that they were sucking premium out of both sides a few weeks back, but the net shorts were falling as they were selling Aug/Sept puts OTM. The bots are using the PP to perfection, on the daily plays, and the trend lines are acting as support/resistance. It is a waiting game. I still think they head fake this thing. TLT remains elevated.

Speaking of TLT…the Calendar play is holding well, up about $40/contract. If it continues up, we are going to need to set a stop on it at $30/contract. I don't want it to get away if there is a sell off, as it will skyrocket and the short sale calls will burn us. Patiently waiting, but I have a finger on the trigger.

August 28, 2012 12:17 pm

The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities increased 0.5 percent from June 2011, the first gain since September 2010

denlundy

August 28, 2012 12:18 pm

TZA weekly $15 calls back at $1.45 with TZA at $16.45 This should still be a play as we yo yo back and forth until uncle Ben speaketh?

August 28, 2012 12:22 pm

denlundy
You really have to get in and get out or join me on the sidelines!

August 28, 2012 12:33 pm

Pharm
It seems like the low volume environment gives them a better opportunity to manipulate the market, news, and the players. And everyone is playing along nice, for now. The question is when does someone throw in the towel and call bad BAD? My problem is I haven't been told the script!
Your responses always appreciated.

Australia / Aussie – I guess they will soon join the race to currency debasing!

August 28, 2012 12:35 pm

Why bother with facts when the fiction sells so much better:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/fact-checking-for-thee-but-not-for-me/2012/08/28/cccd6036-f11d-11e1-892d-bc92fee603a7_blog.html?wprss=rss_plum-line

The Washington Post’s “Fact Checker” awarded Romney’s ad “four Pinocchios,” a measure Romney pollster Neil Newhouse dismissed.

“Fact checkers come to this with their own sets of thoughts and beliefs, and we’re not going to let our campaign be dictated by fact checkers,” he said.

It's going to a fun 3 months!

August 28, 2012 12:46 pm

Ann Romney to Show the Softer Side of Mitt at Tuesday RNC Speech
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/ann-romney-show-softer-side-romney-tuesday-rnc-153420906.html;_ylt=AjTkbSacKFitgGfHWZFN0faiuYdG;_ylu=X3oDMTQzaTFvazVwBG1pdANGaW5hbmNlIEZQIEp1bWJvdHJvbiBMaXRlBHBrZwM3MTZjMDUxZC0wMWU3LTM1NTYtYThhZS1hNWU4YWJjOTBkODMEcG9zAzEEc2VjA2p1bWJvdHJvbgR2ZXIDZWMxODM5NDAtZjEyNS0xMWUxLTlmYmQtY2Q4NGVhMDNhYTU3;_ylg=X3oDMTFpNzk0NjhtBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25z;_ylv=3
She would be wise to skip religion considering that known view on women.

iTrade

August 28, 2012 12:48 pm

SQQQ sept $38 are $1.55
– planning on DD if they catch $1.45

August 28, 2012 12:52 pm

Demand down Oil contracts need to be flipped to April 7 months out. Looking better for the heating season.
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/marketquotes/index.php3?market=DX

Stimulus/DC – Our rule of thumb is $10Bn of G20 stimulus buys one S&P point for 6 months. We're up 140 points from when Draghi fever began and less than $500Bn committed (mainly by China) plus the drip of Twist, which is good for about $400Bn but, since it's monthly, it's more like $80Bn tops so 58 S&P points justified from 1,280 is 1,338 and we're at 1,410 so about $700Bn to maintain this plus 2 months of decay on the original $500Bn (the Fed's drip doesn't decay until they stop the program) brings us back to $800Bn needed just to maintain where we are. That's a lot of money and it's very unlikely the ECB will come up with that much on its own and I don't think the US is good for anything at the moment so – EVEN if we do get some sort of QE/Stimulus – it's going to have to be a lot to justify the run-up.

Link to words/Shadow – You mean the RNC? That's a joke article from the Onion, click the title.

TZA/Den – It's more like a futures play – nothing you want to leave alone to go to the bathroom – let alone overnight! I'm getting bored with it now as it didn't do what we wanted it to and the Dollar is just playing dead at 81.33. I'm more inclined to pull the plug even than ride anything out but there's still a better than 50% chance of another down leg to 808 on the RUT.

"We're not going to let our campaign be dictated by fact checkers" – ROFL. Really GOP people – how can you seriously have any respect for this party? 20 Historical Facts That Republicans Distort Or Just Get Plain Wrong ..

jyoti

August 28, 2012 12:53 pm

What's Draghi up to???
http://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2012/08/28/ecb-spain-stand-by-for-the-big-guns-barrage/

August 28, 2012 1:04 pm

LLY @ 52 wk highs….

August 28, 2012 1:05 pm

11:00 AM On the hour: Dow flat. 10-yr +0.13%. Euro +0.54% vs. dollar. Crude +0.83% to $96.26. Gold -0.09% to $1671.75.

11:39 AM European shares close with solid losses, helped only for a moment by news Mario Draghi is skipping Jackson Hole due to a heavy workload (a bond-buy program?) back home. Bailout requests lose their ability to shock as Catalonia's request for a rescue from Madrid (itself needing assistance) doesn't move the needle. Stoxx 50-0.9%, led by Spain and France each 1% lower

12:00 PM On the hour: Dow +0.05%. 10-yr +0.15%. Euro +0.53%vs. dollar. Crude +0.6% to $96.04. Gold -0.09% to $1671.75.

1:00 PM On the hour: Dow +0.07%. 10-yr +0.14%. Euro +0.57% vs. dollar. Crude +0.75% to $96.19. Gold -0.21% to $1669.75.

Tropical Storm Isaac is upgraded to Category 1 hurricaneby the NHS, with sustained winds of 75 mph and moving northwest at 10 mph. Natural gas (UNG) and gasoline (UGA) futures remain flat to moderately lower. WTI crude (USO) +0.5%.

"Nothing has been decided … nothing is predestined" says Dallas Fed chief Fisher, speaking in a phone interview about another round of stimulus. Not owning a vote on the FOMC, Fisher would like someone to show him the link between further Fed easing and putting people back to work.

Low volatility may be here to stay, argues BNP's Gerry Fowler, the result of an "extreme" risk-on, risk-off environment where investors sit on their hands until some central banker or government official utters something. The resulting high volatility on just a few days makes all other trading sessions snoozers. It's enough to drive even Louis Bacon to the golf course.

Operating profits for non-financial Canadian corporations put in their worst H1 performance since the bursting of the dot-com bubble, falling 5% in Q2 on top of a 5.1% drop in Q1. The report comes not long after BOC Governor Carney's demand for companies to put their cash to work or give it back to shareholders.

The top 10 global investment banks saw a 7.5% hit to revenue in H1 vs. the same period a year ago, according to Coalition. The declines were across nearly all lines, but 2 areas – prime brokerage for equities and emerging markets fixed income – saw gains.

Fitch downgrades 7 mid-size Italian banks, noting their reliance on ECB funding as wholesale markets continue to tighten. The agency isn't worried about central bank funding going away though, as the ECB continually seeks to widen the range of eligible assets available as collateral for loans.

Truck volumes look "weaker than normal" in August, Citi's trucking analyst says: "It appears that August loads were barely positive Y/Y and roughly flat sequentially (typically August volumes improve from July). Multiple carriers cited uncertainty over the election and overall economic softness as the drivers of August weakness and expected September softness."

The back-to-school shopping season has seen a flood of shoppers hit outlet stores looking for bargains, according to Tangers Factory Outlet Centers (SKT +0.4%) CEO Steven Tanger. The company has a good handle on retail traffic with its 39 outlet shopping centers spread out across North America. The nugget also jibes with the recent round of earnings CCs from retailers with execs highlighting the performance at outlet stores a bit more than normal.

Sears Holdings (SHLD +0.5%) continues to build new brands amid the highly-dissected slicing and dicing at the company, showing that it has a bit more on its mind than just managing its real estate assets. A new "guy's guy" line called Outdoor Life Line will launch this weekend at 800 stores and hit Sears' website next month. The Kardashian Kollection is also makes changes, branching out into more plus-sizes to follow an industry-wide trend to make plus-sized shoppers a higher priority.

Gartner's Q2 Indian PC market share data drives home the price Dell (DELL) is paying in emerging markets for refusing to sacrifice margins to maintain share. Dell's share of the Indian PC market, which skews towards the low-end and has remained a bastion of growth, fell 380 bps Y/Y to 12.9%. Lenovo (LNVGY.PK), which has been competing aggressively on price, saw its share rise 620 bps to 16.6%, while H-P's (HPQ) share rose 190 bps to 13.1%. Dell's sales to BRIC markets fell 15% Y/Y in the July quarter.

Motorola Mobility (GOOG) has agreed to license some of its standards-essential patents to Apple (AAPL) in Germany. The deal doesn't cover Motorola's non-standards-essential software patents, one of which led to a German iCloud ban, and 7 of which were recently asserted in an ITC complaint. The deal could be a way for Motorola, which is in a better patent position than Android rivals, to appease regulators worried about its use of standards-essential IP in patent suits. (earlier)

Three lunchtime reads:

1) Five stocks that could jump 20%

2) A new take on the 4% rule

3) Finance is in need of a technological revolution

aaronc

August 28, 2012 1:21 pm

VXX – Reverse stock split just announced.

August 28, 2012 1:31 pm

Historical facts / Phil – Wow, reads like the historical editing of Joe Kernen's book…

hemas03

August 28, 2012 1:47 pm

Phil, do you still fancy those PCLN 540 Sep Puts at $3? They didn't fill for me a coupe of days ago, so there is a new opportunity right now.

scottmi

August 28, 2012 1:52 pm

VXX/aaronc – as i read the news item, it looks like only UVXY is reverse splitting. i have not seen any statement that VXX is, but i would not be suprised if it follows sometime soon.

August 28, 2012 1:55 pm

VXX / AAron – I would not be surprised. The last time they split in Nov 2010 they were trading around 11 as well.

rustle123

August 28, 2012 2:01 pm

Alert TMZ and CNBC, found video of Mario Draghi and what he's doing:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeAOZrpSykE

August 28, 2012 2:04 pm

From Pillows at Slope….IF these (Gas futures) break that glass ceiling…things are not going to be good for the little guy…..nope, no good at all.

August 28, 2012 2:07 pm

VXX/STJ SCOTTMI – You guys are right it's the UVXY. It would be nice though.

August 28, 2012 2:10 pm

SQQQ/ITrade – Keeps falling just short. Good indication our channel is right though.

Draghi – If they had a plan (and don't forget it was two months ago that he said he had one) then it would have been announced. I think he's buying time because the ECB meeting is the 6th but I still don't see how they can do anything without the German vote on the 12th and if Bernanke punts (which I'd say is 75%) – I don't see people being that patient. Draghi's a GS guy and he know better so there is no way he blew off Jackson Hole if he had something to announce. There is a teeny, tiny chance that they are legitimately all just getting back from vacation and the only way to coordinate with a Fed announcement is to meet all week and iron out details but – not after 2 months of BS.

Joe Kernan/StJ – I can't believe someone in the nanny state hasn't taken that poor girl away from him to a safer place!

PCLN/Hemas – I don't know, Shatner's back… Just kidding – of course I still like them.

VXX/Arron – Not VXX, the ultra that tracks it.

And what Scott said!

August 28, 2012 2:11 pm

VXX / Aaron – You mean it would be nice so you could short it again? 🙂

August 28, 2012 2:13 pm

Kernen / Phil – Of course there is always a chance that Blake Kernen turns out like that young kid who spoke at the RNC convention 8 years ago but is a staunch Democrat now….

August 28, 2012 2:20 pm

Reversed splits!
The idea is to attract those who have rejected it. The outcome is usually bad.

mjjwo9b

August 28, 2012 2:23 pm

Kernen – With youth there is always hope; not so much with the old cur dog.

August 28, 2012 2:34 pm

Pharm
Excellent! That chart was about what I detailed about IWM this AM. Doesn't matter what index all the same, kind of tells a story or warning.

August 28, 2012 2:38 pm

Phil:
You holding TZA overnight?

August 28, 2012 2:40 pm

Phil:
Just saw your earlier answer to my question. Forget I asked.

August 28, 2012 2:44 pm

Pennant forming on 3 min SPY with Higher Lows. IF they follow TA…should break up, not down. Char it SPY 5 min (Cobra), but same info.

August 28, 2012 2:47 pm

VXX/ STJ – That would be a nice long term trade, but I'm on the other side presently. Short some Jan 13 10 Puts. Sitting on a nice profit but haven't gotten nearly the pop I would have expected by now. Holding till Jackson Hole then I'll reevaluate.

August 28, 2012 2:52 pm

Pharm
Another excellent chart shown the trend/trap/POINT!, I see. I gave up on posting my charts all I seen to know how to is links to others and I don't search for them, I creat them.

August 28, 2012 2:57 pm

Shadow – all my (borrowed) charts are excellent…heck, all my posts are excellent…. 😉

1020 – no comments from the peanut gallery!

August 28, 2012 3:00 pm

Kernan – Very clever by the way, making his 10 year-old daughter the co-author. It makes the book virtually attack-proof as no on wants to rip to shreds the misguided musings of a child. Also probably had some nice tax advantages….

2:00 PM On the hour: Dow -0.11%. 10-yr +0.21%. Euro +0.56% vs. dollar. Crude +0.72% to $96.16. Gold -0.4% to $1666.55

Fed a Profit Center for Taxpayers? Congratulations to CNBC for one of the silliest economic assertions in history.

Federal Judge dismisses prominent evangelical college’s lawsuit against Obamacare

Seems real: An ECB Member Gave A Speech In German That Laid Out Exactly The Plan To Save Europe

Anti-EU, Anti-Brussels Sentiment Rises in Netherlands; Don't Expect Much (Except Bickering) From a "Merkollande"…

How To Make $500,000 With Credit Suisse Betting For A Big Jackson Hole Disappointment

CIO of Buffett's Gen Re says France Debt ‘Significantly Overvalued’

Barclays Has 3 Reasons Why China Isn't Ready To Stimulate Its Slowing Economy

SocGen: A Bunch Of Industries Are Collapsing In China's Bad Debt Nightmare

So is the Venezuelan oil fire out or not? Venezuela’s energy minister insists the inferno that has halted operations at its largest refinery is “totally extinguished," but recent a live broadcast by Venezuelan TV – which was swiftly cut off – showed flames and black smoke in at least one of the fuel storage tanks. Valero (VLO +1%) is the leading gainer among refiners; also XOM +0.3%, CVX +0.5%.

Vehicle Miles Driven Just Hit A New Post-Crisis Low

Tesla Motors (TSLA +3.4%) bounces back after shares were rattled yesterday on early word that GM was partially pulling the plug on its Chevrolet Volt production. Sentiment today could be influenced by a finalization by the Obama administration on new rulesthat will require cars and trucks to average 54.5 mpg starting in 2025. If the highly-debated reg sticks it's not a bad thing for Tesla as its Model S already sports a hard to match mix of power and fuel efficiency. The stats: An equivalent mpg rating of 89 and 0-to-60 mph acceleration of 4.4 seconds

Yelp (YELP -4.6%) is selling off ahead of tomorrow's lockup expiration; shares have now mostly given back Friday's gains, and are down 29% from their Aug. 10 close. 52.7M shares will becomeeligible for sale tomorrow – by comparison, only 7.15M shares were sold in Yelp's IPO. VC investors hold large stakes in the company, as do chairman Max Levchin and CEO Jeremy Stoppelman.

Analysts question the idea Nokia (NOK -5.8%) will be a major beneficiary of the Apple-Samsung verdict. While expecting Windows Phone to get a lift from the ruling, Berenberg argues Nokia'supcoming Lumia phones still have "no chance" of competing against Apple and Samsung, and that the market is pricing in margin, ASP, and and market share improvements that might not arrive. MKM recommends buying October 3.5/2.5 or 3/2.5 put spreads.

The next iPhone (AAPL) won't feature an NFC chip, thinks AnandTech, after doing a technical analysis of the front assembly pictures that fueled speculation in this direction. The could be contributing to today's selloff in NXP (NXPI -2.9%), the early leader in the NFC chip market. Broadcom (BRCM) has also developed NFC chips, and plans to integrate the technology with its Wi-Fi/Bluetooth combo chips. (NFC challenges)

Nanny state much? GOP platform calls for prosecutors to "vigorously" prosecute porn – This is what I love about Conservative – keep the government out of my face unless you are doing something I don't like and then I want them to hunt you down like a dog.

Romney's Plan To Increase Defense Spending Is Ludicrous

Here are updated charts of the odds for the President, House and Senate