Courtesy of Mish.
Initial Reaction
The establishment report of +146,000 jobs was about what most expected.
However, beneath the surface, this report looks grim.
The household survey shows a loss of 122,000 jobs. The unemployment rate dropped by .2% because the labor force fell by 350,000 and those “not in the labor force” rose by a whopping 542,000.
Thus, we are back to the previous 2012 pattern of witnessing unemployment rate drop largely because of a massive increase of those “not” in the labor force.
No Effect From Hurricane Sandy
Hurricane Sandy had no effect. The BLS reports “Our survey response rates in the affected states were within normal ranges. Our analysis suggests that Hurricane Sandy did not substantively impact the national employment and unemployment estimates for November.”
November BLS Jobs Report at a Glance
- Payrolls +146,000 – Establishment Survey
- US Employment -122,000 – Household Survey
- Involuntary Part-Time Work -168,000 – Household Survey
- Baseline Unemployment Rate -.02 at 7.7% – Household Survey
- U-6 unemployment -.02 to 14.4% – Household Survey
- The Civilian Labor Force -350,000 – Household Survey
- Not in Labor Force +542,000 – Household Survey
- Participation Rate -.2 to 63.6 – Household Survey
Recall that the unemployment rate varies in accordance with the Household Survey not the reported headline jobs number, and not in accordance with the weekly claims data.
Quick Notes About the Unemployment Rate
- US unemployment rate -.2 to 7.7%
- In the last year, those “not” in the labor force rose by 2,380,000
- Over the course of the last year, the number of people employed rose by 2,648,000
- Long-Term unemployment (27 weeks and over) was 4,786,000 a decline of 216,000
- Ratio of long-term unemployment to overall unemployment is 40.1%. Once someone loses a job it is still very difficult to find another.
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