Archive for 2012

JCPenney to Eliminate All Checkout Clerks, Instead Using RFID Chips and Self-Checkout; End of JCPenny? How Many Jobs At Risk?

Courtesy of Mish.

By 2014 JCPenney PLans to Eliminate All Check-Out Clerks, and instead use self-checkout machines and RFID chips.

Struggling retailer JCPenney is making some big changes that will affect customers and its clerks. The store is getting rid of its check-out counters.

CEO Ron Johnson said it will remove check-out counters in stores and replace them with a system that won’t require clerks. It’s all part of an effort to return the department store chain to profitability.

Shoppers will be able to use self check-out machines, similar to those found in grocery stores.

JCPenney is also planning to replace traditional bar codes on price tags with high-tech radio frequency identification, or “RFID” chips to make purchases faster.

Johnson told “Fortune” magazine he hopes to phase out check-out counters by 2014.

End of JCPenny?

My first thought was a question: Will this work?

A move to entirely self-service is a risky bet-the-company type of move.

Given that many large grocery stores have both self-checkout and manned checkout lanes, I suspect in reality that JCPenny will not go big-bang with this concept but instead will use a series if trials to see how customers respond.

How Many Jobs At Risk?

I personally loathe self-checkout but it’s not my opinion that counts. If there are enough who think like me, and JCPenny does go big-bang, this move will the death of JCPenny.

However, If I am wrong, then note that JCPenny has 1100 stores so we are talking about the elimination of lots of jobs. Also note that if the move by JCPenny is successful, other stores will follow….



Continue Here






Did The Market Remove Its Own QE Punchbowl?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

There are only three words that send a chill down the spine of Ben Bernanke – Ron, Paul, and Deflation. His life’s work is devoted to the avoidance-at-all-costs of the latter (and probably the former in reality). As we discussed here two weeks ago, his actions in extreme monetary policy have all occurred at periods when the market’s expectations of future rapid de- or dis-inflation have increased rapidly. As we noted then: without inflation break-evens dropping, the Bernanke put will not arrive; but the market in its infinitely efficient wisdom has created a self-defeating spiral of BTFD reflexive front-running on any rapid spike down in future inflation expectations – which implicitly sparks a non-dis-inflationary reaction and removes Bernanke’s punchbowl for another day. This has occurred 4 times this year – with this week’s early plunge being caught by Draghi and Hilsenrath – and with inflation break-evens almost at their highest in 10 months, it would appear the ‘desperate-not-to-miss-the-life-giving-rally’ market just removed its own blood supply.

 

Each time the inflation break-evens have cracked down hard towards 2.0%, Bernanke has stepped up bowl-in-hand and ladled out the yummy QE Kool-Aid; 2012 has seen 4 ‘mini-spikes’ which have all been triggers for responsive equity buying to front-run Ben’s-Bowl. But as is clear, the more this occurs, the less likely the bowl is to actually appear!

 

Data: Bloomberg





Weekly Market Commentary: Comprehensive Breadth Recovery

Courtesy of Declan Fallon

Market Breadth continued its improvement on the weekly time frame.  The April low is playing out as a major swing low for breadth and the rally from this low still looks to offer further upside.

The Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks Above the 50-day MA is net bullish (technically) with 59% of Nasdaq stocks above their 50-day MA.  Plenty of room for upside.

The Nasdaq Bullish Percents had a more low key week. Technicals for this instrument are still net bearish. The April low hasn’t followed through yet.

While the Nasdaq Summation Index bucked the trend by closing down last week, although the April swing low is clear and technicals are net bullish.

The improvement in Nasdaq breadth has nicely shaped the parent index.  There is a clear ‘handle’ forming above 2,885 with the spike lows into 2,800 over the past few weeks indicating demand.  Below this is a good place for stops on long positions.  Technicals net bearish but improving.

The S&P had an interesting close to the week. It managed to push above a past resistance level at 1,370 and work a challenge of the earlier ‘bull trap’.  However, it continues to ride former channel support turned resistance.

The Russell 2000 was quiet.  It still has lots of work to do before it gains some fresh air above.

Positive stuff for next week with the Nasdaq best placed to post further gains.

Follow Me on Twitter


Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com. I offer a range of stock trading


continue reading





How Much More Does The Bear Market Have To Go?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The secular bear market that the US has been caught in for a better part of the last decade will end. Eventually. The only question is when. Last week we reported that the bulk of market gains year to date, has been driven exclusively by PE multiple expansion, which is to be expected: EPS forecasts for the end of 2012 are now the lowest they have been since the beginning of the year. Yet while such sharp, sudden and short and bear-market rallies, exclusively on the back of the global central banks, are to be expected, the bigger question is how much more of a secular decline in PE multiples is to be expected before the bear market ends and a new bull market can begin. As the following chart from Crestmont Research shows there is quite a bit more to go, even with Fed assistance (or rather, because of it, and its forced rejection of reaching a fair clearing price sooner rather than later), before the bear market is officially over. Just over 50% more. To the downside.

How the Bear Market declines have looked in perspective, and where we ultimately have to go before all the artifical supports are cleared out:

 

And the Bull Markets preceding them…

h/t Things That Make you go Hmmm





A Completely Screwed Up System

Courtesy of Bruce Krasting

A Completely Screwed Up System

The following chart from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) shows who pays federal income taxes in America.

 

It should come as no surprise that individuals with the highest incomes pay the most in taxes. The top 20% pay 94% of all income taxes according to the CBO. It should also be no surprise that the bottom two rungs (40%) of the income groups pay very little taxes. But it was surprising to me that the bottom 40% actually pay a negative income tax.

How does one pay negative taxes? Tax transfers to low income groups exceed their tax liabilities. Two examples of these transfers are the EITC (Earned Income Tax Credit) and ACTC (Additional Child Tax Credit).  The following chart from the Congressional Research Service (CRS) describes the effective negative tax rate phenomenon.

For those earning up to $26,000, there are no income taxes levied, but those individuals pay FICA (Social Security taxes). The value of the tax credits available to those individuals is greater than their SS taxes. Therefore, the group, ends up with a negative tax rate.

I favor this type of income redistribution. I think high-income groups should end up supporting lower income groups. I have no problem with negative effective tax rates for individuals and households that are at, or below, the poverty line.

But….

The CRS reported:


continue reading





Biggest EPS Miss Since Lehman, And This Time It’s Not The Tsunami’s Fault

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Yes, we know it doesn’t matter because Ben & Mario have got our backs at whatever multiple is required to levitate the economy market, but as Citi’s credit desk points out; despite the constant chatter about EPS beats (despite top-line misses), the trick is that analysts have been dragging down expectations since the earnings-cycle began and so judging ‘misses’ must be done against a ‘frozen’ pre-earnings number. If we do this ‘fair’ approach to considering expectations, the percentage miss in the S&P 500′s EPS for Q2 2012 is as bad as the Q2/Q3 2011 Tsunami-driven miss – and the worst we have seen since Lehman Brothers shuffled off this mortal coil. So as usual, be careful what truth you believe and consider just how much more ‘hope’ is now in this market given this reality.

 

 

Citi Credit Weekly

Undoubtedly, part of the reason that Spain and Greece have come back into focus is that the earnings of US companies continue to be so uneven. With more than half of S&P500 companies having reported, we’re only now starting to get the full picture, and viewed from the top down perspective it’s far less pretty than even last week led us to believe. Relative to expectations, top line revenues have been especially weak, with nearly all sectors surprising to the downside, even as EPS and EBITDA have tended to beat.

 

But even those sorts of statistics tend to hide the true weakness because equity analysts tend to revise expectations down while earnings season is still ongoing, which explains why some 72% of S&P500 companies manage to beat expectations in a weak quarter.

 

To get a truer picture of the magnitude of disappointment, it’s necessary to freeze estimates prior to the start of earnings season, so that those companies reporting later don’t get the benefit of having the bar set lower by the early reporters. And viewed this way, we see that earnings surprises have been about as bad as the third quarter of 2011, which were impacted by the Japanese earthquake and the debt ceiling debate.

Source: Citi





Eurogroup Head Confirms “It Has Become Serious”, As He Is Back To Lying

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The insolvent banana continent is back. Recall back in May 2011: 

When it becomes serious, you have to lie.” -Jean Claude Juncker

Ergo, things in Europe are very serious again because the Eurogroup’s head, who until recently promised he was quitting his post because “he had gotten tired of the Franco-German interference in managing the region’s debt crisis”, only to spoil the fun and say he was lying about that too, is back to doing what he does best – lying. To wit: “the euro countries are preparing together with the bailout fund EFSF and the European Central Bank to buy government bonds if necessary clip euro countries.” And now cue Schauble: “Federal Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble has rejected speculation about impending purchases of government bonds by Spanish EFSF and ECB.”

From Suddeutsche Zeitung:

“No time to lose”: The chairman of the €-group sees a crucial point of the debt crisis has arrived. Jean-Claude Juncker supports plans by ECB chief Draghi for the purchase of government bonds – and Germany are partly to blame for the crisis. Berlin treats the euro area “as a branch.” Also called “chatter on the withdrawal of Greece” is not helpful.

 

Juncker confirmed that the euro countries are preparing together with the bailout fund EFSF and the European Central Bank to buy government bonds if necessary clip euro countries. Because there is no doubt, he said. “It is still necessary to decide exactly what we will do and when.” This depended “on the developments of the next few days and from reacting as fast as we need.”

And to think only yesterday the only person whose opinion matters, Germany’s Finance Minister,  “denied plans for a new aid program for Spain, according to newspaper Welt am Sonntag, after the media reported European Union leaders aim for Spanish government bond purchases by the European rescue fund and the European Central Bank.”

We leave it up to readers to figure out which of the above two is telling the truth, but in the meantime, here are some other soundbites from the man who is back to desperation pleading with markets:

  • JUNCKER SAYS MUST USE ALL AVAILABLE TOOLS TO SAFEGUARD EURO
  • JUNCKER: EMU READYING FOR EFSF/ECB INTERVENTION
  • JUNCKER SAYS MARKET REACTION ON SPAIN, ITALY INAPPROPRIATE


continue reading





View From The Bridge: Going For Gold

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Clive Hale from View from the Bridge

Going for Gold

There seems to be some surprise that the opening ceremony was “very British”. What were people expecting? Mongolian hordes; Eskimo Nells? The very pointed reference to the NHS being at the centre of British values will no doubt have gone over the head of Andrew Lansley (Secretary of State for Health) and most of the audience, who are blissfully unaware that his cunning plan is to emaciate the service so he has an excuse to privatise it on the cheap for the benefit of his “friends”. A tactic Mitt Romney would have approved of along with burying the “special relationship”, which he cares little for, as we have no natural resources, our armed forces are dwindling to mere crowd controllers and republicans have no use for a monarch. Having been part of the organising committee for the 2002 US Winter Olympics he may think he has the right to opine on the ability of the Brits to host such an occasion, but as David Cameron said, putting the games on in the middle of nowhere, Salt Lake City, compared to London, bears no comparison.

So we have two weeks of sport to take our minds off the global financial malaise. The EU commissars have all gone on holiday, but not before Mario Draghi (ECB Chairman) announced that he will do whatever it takes to save the euro. Really? His statement did knock the Spanish 10 year bond yield back below 7%, but this had become a one way and illiquid trade that was due for break. We have seen it all before with Greece. Denial, denial, denial all the way until days before default restructuring. Talking of which, the Greeks think they are in line for a further handout. Those whirring sounds you can hear in the distance are printing presses knocking out “new” drachma.

The question being asked now is, “where are the risk free assets?” In truth there have never been any. Cash has rarely, if ever, beaten inflation and are there any bankers left that you trust? Last week Barclays put aside £450 million to provide for “Lieborgate” claims stating they had no idea what the final figure would be. Try adding a few more “noughts” guys and…
continue reading





Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David’s free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends – “How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week.” Tell David PSW sent you. – Ilene





 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

Overpriced tech IPOs sell grand visions but aren't worth their valuations

 

Overpriced tech IPOs sell grand visions but aren't worth their valuations

rblfmr / Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Colley, Warwick Business School, University of Warwick

The year of the tech IPO is 2019. Uber went public on May 10 with a US$82.4 billion valuation. Fellow ride-sharing app Lyft floated in March with a U$24 billion valuation and Pinterest had a US$10 billion IPO in April...



more from Ilene

Zero Hedge

Futures Slides As Trade Tensions Escalate

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

S&P futures were lower on Wednesday as investors sought safety in bonds, the Japanese yen and Swiss franc in muted trade amid renewed worries over the U.S.-China spat after reports Washington is considering cutting off the flow of American technology to as many as five Chinese companies including Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology, the world's largest supplier of video surveillance products, expanding the US crackdown on China beyond Huawei to include world leaders in video surveillance. The dollar and 10Y yield were unchanged ahead of today's FOMC Minutes.

...



more from Tyler

Kimble Charting Solutions

Emerging Markets About To Submerge If 3-Year Support Breaks?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Are Emerging Markets about to “Submerge” and head a good deal lower? What they do at (3) will go a long way in answering this question!

Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) has been lagging the broad market for the past 15-months. They hit their 50% retracement level of the last year’s highs and lows and falling resistance at (2) recently. The weakness of last has EEM trading below its 200-MA line.

EEM has spent the majority of the past 3-years inside of rising channel (1), which reflects that this trend remains up. The weakness of late has it testing the bo...



more from Kimble C.S.

Insider Scoop

Amgen To Buy Danish Collaborator Nuevolution For $167M

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Amgen, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) took a logical step forward in buying a preclinical biotech it has been collaborating with since 2016. 

What Happened

Amgen announced Wednesday an agreement to buy Copenhagen-based Nuevolution for $167 million.

Th...



http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Weekly Market Recap May 18, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

China – U.S. trade talk continued to dominate the week.   A heavy selloff Monday was followed by 3 up days, with Friday moderately down.

On Monday, Chinese officials announced retaliatory tariffs against the U.S., hitting $60 billion in annual exports to China with new or expanded duties that could reach 25%.

Then on Wednesday:

The Trump administration plans to delay a decision on instituting new tariffs on car and auto part imports for up to six months, according to media reports.

...

more from Chart School

Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



more from Bitcoin

Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



more from Biotech

ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



more from ValueWalk

Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



more from Our Members

Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



more from M.T.M.

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

more from Promotions





About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>