Archive for 2012

Key Events In The Coming Week And Month

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

After last week’s event-a-palooza, where the headlines, the spin, the erroneous HFT trading, and the propaganda (Draghi is too cold; Draghi is too hot; Draghi is just right) just refused to stop, we finally enter the summer proper where all of Europe is on vacation, as is congress. Add on top of this a very light macro event week and an earnings season which has seen the bulk of companies already report, and we expect the volume in the coming 5 days to be among the lowest recorded in 2012, and thus in the past decade. Which of course means that the cannibalization among the market makers will continue as more and more firms succumb to “trading anomalies.”

Goldman recaps the key macro events in the coming week, few as they may be:

In the upcoming week, we enter the less data-intensive period of the month. There are few major data releases, which could change investors’ take on the global business cycle. However, there are a number of central bank meetings, with the RBA, BOJ the most important ones, together with the inflation report from the BOE. But we will also get rate decisions in Korea, Indonesia and Peru. On the data front we will look at the US trade balance and China CPI numbers.

Most of the focus in the week ahead will likely remain on the ECB decision, including the political debate across the Eurozone that usually follows important announcements. We expect continued headline-induced volatility and some focus on the “if” and “when” of any additional support for Spain.

Mon 6 Aug

  • Indonesia GDP

Tue 7 Aug

  • Australia RBA Cash Rate Announcement: Consensus expects a flat rate of 3.50% for August.
  • United Kingdom Industrial Production: We expect a decline to -4.3% yoy from -1.6% yoy previously.
  • Germany Factory Orders: Consensus expects a decline to -0.8% mom from 0.6% mom previously.
  • Also interesting: Switzerland Harmonised CPI, US Consumer Credit, Italy GDP.

Wed 8 Aug

  • Brazil IBC-BR Monthly Real GDP: We expect an increase to 1.5% yoy from 1.1% yoy previously.
  • Brazil Inflation – IPCA (IBGE): We expect an increase to 5.17% yoy from 4.92% yoy for July.
  • Germany Trade Balance: Consensus expects a decline to 14.6B from 15.3B previously.
  • United Kingdom Bank of England Inflation Report
  • Germany Industrial


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Escalation of the Extortion Racket: Now It’s ‘The Dissolution Of Europe’ Not Just The Eurozone

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by testosteronepit.

Wolf Richter   www.testosteronepit.com

It has been an onslaught. Eurozone heads of state, top politicians, unelected kingpins, and bureaucratic honchos threatened everyone in sight with the demise of the euro, or promised to do “everything” or “whatever it takes” to save it even if it violated treaties or the very foundation of European democracy. In between the lines, bit by bit, the mammoth costs of continuing the endless bailouts or of breaking everything to pieces finally oozed to the surface.

Sunday it was Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti, whose country, after years of living beyond its means, is suffocating under a mountain of debt. He needs the European Central Bank to print a trainload of euros and massively buy up Italian sovereign bonds to force their yields down and keep Italy financially viable—which is precisely what the treaties that govern the ECB don’t allow it to do, though the ECB had done it before, despite all-out opposition from Germany, including the resignation of ECB Council Member and Bundesbank President Axel Weber and ECB Chief Economist Jürgen Stark. After buying €211 billion in sovereign bonds, the ECB stopped in March. And since then, all heck has re-broken loose.

So Monti went on attack. The Eurozone bailout chaos and Germany’s resistance to ECB printing operations have created tensions that show “the traits of a psychological dissolution of Europe,” he told the Spiegel, a threat designed for German consumption—the latest in a series of escalating threats issued by politicians of debt sinner countries. And like his predecessors, he took it a step further than anyone before him.

Further even than Alexis Tsipras, the firebrand leader of Greece’s left-wing SYRIZA party, who’d threatened during the chaotic election, “If Greece doesn’t get its next loan installment, the Eurozone will collapse the following day.” But now comes Monti—and it’s no longer just the demise of the 17-member Eurozone but the dissolution of Europe. Europe as a whole. If the ECB doesn’t print whatever it takes to bail out Italy, “the foundations of the project Europe are destroyed,” he said.

Then, indefatigable, the unelected technocrat went after democracy itself: “If governments let themselves be tied down completely by the decisions of their parliaments,” he said, and he was directly addressing Germany, “then the breakup of the Eurozone is more likely…
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Libor May Be Manipulated, But Silver Is Not, CFTC To Conclude

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

In what may be the most amusing news of the day, according to the FT the CFTC will shortly drop its 4 year old investigation into silver manipulation, “after US regulators failed to find enough evidence to support a legal case, according to three people familiar with the situation.” How about evidence to support an “illegal” case? Of course, that this is happening after the recent discovery that the world’s most pervasive fixed income benchmark was manipulated for years, if not decades, can only be reason for laughter and wonder if the CFTC used the same assiduous diligence methods in pursuing the alleged perpetrators of precious metal manipulation as it did in letting the fraud at PFG slip through its fingers for two decades. We will probably never know, or at least not until an email mentioning bottles of Bollinger and silver price “fixing” in the same sentence inexplicably turns up and makes a complete mockery of the CFTC yet again.

From the FT:

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission first announced that it was investigating “complaints of misconduct in the silver market” in September 2008, following a barrage of allegations of manipulation from a group of precious metals investors.

 

In 2010, Bart Chilton, a CFTC commissioner, said that he believed there had been “fraudulent efforts” to “deviously control” the silver price.

 

But after taking advice from two external consultancies, the first of which found irregularities on certain trading dates that it believed deserved more analysis, CFTC staff do not have sufficient evidence to bring a case, according to the people familiar with the situation.

 

The CFTC has analysed over 100,000 documents and interviewed dozens of witnesses since it began investigating the market in 2008, it said last year. The people familiar with the situation said the evidence included records from JPMorgan.

 

The conclusion of the investigation will come as a relief to JPMorgan. Although no company or individual was named in the CFTC investigation, the Wall Street bank has suffered a torrent of allegations from silver investors on the blogosphere.

The FT continues by referencing the inventor of CDS herself: Blythe Masters:

Blythe Masters, head of commodities at JPMorgan, in an April interview with CNBC


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Knight to See Another Day Following 60%+ Convertible Dilution

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

According to CNBC's David Faber, Knight Capital will live at least for another day and avoid bankruptcy. Instead, it will experience dilution which will make its equityholders almost wish the company was filing. Knight, via Jefferies, is about to stick its shareholders with a massive dilution following the issuance of a $400 million convert bond at a $1.50 conversion price, or more than 60% dilution from Friday's $4.05 closing price.

This effectively means that the equity slice is for all intents and purposes wiped out and will be crammed down by a convert (technically upon conversion pari passu with the equity, but implicitly a 60%+ discount to market to stimulate new strategic investor interest), which itself may also be at risk, if Knight's action is insufficient to restore confidence in the firm from its counterparties. It also means that since the convert is unsecured, those who invest in it could face full write down on their investment shortly, which likely means the previously discussed TD Ameritrade and Getco.

But the good news, at least for Knight's 1400 employees, is that they will have a job for at least a few more days until the true fallout of last week's mega trade blunder is understood.

As for what happens next for KGC stock? It may well bounce following a sharp but brief short covering rally, only to be followed by an exodus as investors take the opportunity to cash out from a firm which has already indicated it will do anything to preserve its viability, including nearly complete dilution.





The Lingering Locust Clouds Of Zombie Money

Courtesy of The Automatic Earth.

For the financial markets, the situation in Europe can't get bad enough. The worse it gets, the higher the likelihood that more taxpayer funds will be pumped into the system. These funds will not achieve their ostensible goal, which is to "heal" the economies of the countries whose taxpayers are forced to pick up the tab. Those economies have been battered and indebted so badly that there's zero chance of them returning to "normal" growth and paying "normal" returns for many years to come, if ever.

To keep the large investors who shape the markets happy, the only resource left is taxpayer funds. Which is very fundamentally wrong, not just morally, but especially economically. It constitutes a de facto return to feudalism (the lord of the manor levies ever higher "taxes"), which, at least from our 21st century point of view, is quite simply not an economic – never mind societal – model that works.

Hints like those provided by ECB head Mario Draghi last week, that work is being done on more bailouts and more bond buying programs, can still send the markets into a tizzy. Not because there are expectations of economic recovery, but because there's more free lunch to be had for the few at the cost of the many. Which is why what we see is that while the economic situation in Europe continues to decline, stocks rise. Those in the know and with a seat at the table are all in: they have their shorts and default swaps all prepared, and if that isn't enough, they will be bailed out. They win whatever happens.

European taxpayers, if they have paid attention, can and will expect no such thing. Indeed, they are guaranteed to lose both their wealth and their freedom, whatever happens. That is, until they break free from the shackles of the financial system. They will have to gather by the millions in city squares and in front of palaces and parliament buildings to accomplish that. And that is something they won't do until things get really bad. Well, don't worry, they will.

Meanwhile, the mainstream economic focus, which through the media has become just about everyone’s only focus, is simply completely wrong. While everybody


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Days of Destruction, Days of Revolt

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tim Knight from Slope of Hope.

I just finished Days of Destruction, Days of Revolt by Chris Hedges and Joe Sacco. It is superb, and I've spent a fair amount of time typing in passages from the book below in order to capture some of its theme.

The "me" of twenty years ago wouldn't be caught dead reading a book like this. It is, after all, an unflinching assasination of our present capitalist system. As a younger person, I was wholeheartedly (and more than a little ignorantly) devoted to a dog-eat-dog, lassiez-faire capitalist system. And, in my adult life, I have lived that way, at least inasmuch as I created, built, and sold a successful business and have, before, during, and after that time, been a very active participant in the financial markets (both by way of trading as well as writing). 0805-revolt

Experience and observation have moderated my views, however. At the outset I will say that I still regard capitalism as the most proper, natural, and constructive economic system, but I'm a much firmer believer in a modified version – – consistently-regulated with a distribution of wealth more akin to the 1970s than the present day – – than I ever imagined I would be.

This passage from the preface of the book captures the pages that follow nicely:

 
 

The ruthless hunt for profit creates a world where everything and everyone is expendable. Nothing is sacred. It has blighted inner cities, turned the majestic Appalachian Mountains into a blasted moonscape of poisoned water, soil, and air. It has forced workers into a downward spiral of falling wages and mounting debt until laborers in agricultural fields and sweatshops work in conditions that replicate slavery. It has impoverished our working class and ravaged the middle class. And it has enriched a tiny global elite that has no loyalty to the nation-state. These corporations, if we use the language of patriotism, are traitors.

Days of Destruction take the rather novel approach of combining superb journalism (Chris Hedges) with world-class graphic art (Joe Sacco). It is part graphic novel and part diatribe. And, I need to tell you right now, this is not a feel-good book, and the balance…
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“Did Somebody Repeal The Laws Of Mathematics?”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

From Grant Williams’ latest Things That Make you Go Hmm.

Remember late-2010? When Spain wasn’t a problem, but merely a potential problem? I do:

(FT, November 17, 2010): For some of the world’s biggest hedge funds, typically regarded as the savviest traders in the market, there is now one big question facing the eurozone: what is going to happen to Spain?

 

While Europe’s politicians are grappling with the crisis unravelling in Ireland, hedge fund managers are already turning their attention to  the issue of how – and if – a peripheral crisis in Ireland could leap via Portugal and Spain to become a systemic crisis for the eurozone as a whole.

 

“The Irish problem will be contained,” says Guillaume Fonkenell, chief investment officer at Pharo, one of Europe’s biggest and most successful macro funds, which specialises in trading on macroeconomic events and trends. “For us contagion is the issue … If the market loses confidence in Spain, then all bets are off. Spain is too big to bail.”…

Back then, the general opinion was that if the contagion spread to Spain the game was over because there wasn’t enough money with which to bail out an economy the size of The Kingdom of Spain. I’m not sure exactly what happened— maybe I wasn’t paying attention—but suddenly, almost two years on and in an environment where even the rich nations of Europe are seeing an undeniable slide towards recession, there is no talk about Spain being ‘too-big-to-bail’ anymore.

Did somebody repeal the laws of mathematics?

Presumably, if the contagion reaches Italy that would be OK too now, I guess.

As it first hit the headlines as a potential problem, Spain made a presentation to potential investors that highlighted how strong the country actually was despite the conjecture amongst market participants. The presentation is highly educational and can be found in full HERE, but as a taster, here’s one particular slide that caught my eye:

Oh, to hell with it… here’s another:

Some opportunity.

* * *

Full letter:

 





Breakout Or Fake Out?

Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

A roller coaster week ends flat and leaves more questions than answers

Last week’s roller coaster ride took investors on a dizzying ride as global markets struggled for direction and remained within the recent tight trading range.

On My Wall Street Radar

The fundamentals were mostly terrible but markets shook off bad economic news and central bank inaction to focus instead on promises for better days and a better than expected  jobs report.

chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

In the point and figure chart above we see how the rally took prices back to recent resistance levels but the buy signal remains intact with an upside target of 1550.  Heavy resistance is at 1400 while support is at 1360 and even stronger support at the bullish support line at 1350.  A break below that would be a major trend change to the bearish side.

For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSEARCA:DIA) was up 0.2%, the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) gained 0.4%, the Nasdaq 100 (NYSEARCA:QQQ) advanced 0.3% and the Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA:IWM) declined 1.0%.

U.S. Treasuries (NYSEARCA:IEF) declined on the week.

So we remain locked in the recent trading range but with a slight bias to the upside that would be further confirmed with a break above current levels.  Expect more volatility and choppy conditions ahead.

 View From the Summit

Last week’s headline makers were the Federal Reserve standing pat and Mario Draghi saying that his European Central Bank was going to come up with a plan to buy Spanish and Italian bonds.  Markets at first didn’t like the news but rallied hard on Friday on speculation that European governments would rally around Spain and Italy to save the European Union.  Further support came from Greece where new pledged of austerity bolstered confidence that the country would continue to be kept on European life support.

July payrolls were the good news on Friday as the number came in at a better than expected 163,000 compared to last month’s weak 64,000, however, overall unemployment edged up to 8.3%.  ISM made a slight advance along with consumer confidence.

On the negative side of the ledger, global PMIs continue to drop, construction spending in the U.S. dropped, car sales and factory orders were down and ISM remains in contraction mode.

After a heavy…
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Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David’s free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends – “How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week.” Tell David PSW sent you. – Ilene





 
 
 

ValueWalk

#1 Performing Global Macro Hedge Fund Sees More Shorts Opportunities Ahead As China Bursts

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Crescat Global Macro Fund update to investors on 1/19/2019

Crescat Global Macro Fund and Crescat Long/Short fund delivered strong returns for both December and full year 2018 in a difficult market. Based on ...



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Zero Hedge

Johns Hopkins, Bristol-Myers Face $1 Billion Suit For Infecting Guatemalan Hookers With Syphilis 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A federal judge in Maryland said Johns Hopkins University, pharmaceutical company Bristol-Myers Squibb and the Rockefeller Foundation must face a $1 billion lawsuit over their roles in a top-secret program in the 1940s ran by the US government that injected hundreds of Guatemalans with syphilis, reported Reuters.

Several doctors from Hopkins an...



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Divisive economics

 

Guest author David Brin — scientist, technology consultant, best-selling author and futurist — explores the records of Democrats and Republicans on the US economy in the following post. For David's latest posts, visit the CONTRARY BRIN blog. For his books and short stories, visit his web...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stock declines did not break 9-year support, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We often hear “Stocks take an escalator up and an elevator down!” No doubt stocks did experience a swift decline from the September highs to the Christmas eve lows. Looks like the “elevator” part of the phrase came true as 2018 was coming to an end.

The first part of the “stocks take an escalator up” seems to still be in play as well despite the swift decline of late.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- All of these indices hit long-term rising support on Christmas Eve at each (1), where support held and rallies have followed.

If you find long-term perspectives helpf...



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Digital Currencies

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

 

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

Blockchain technologies can empower people by allowing them more control over their user data. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ajay Kumar Shrestha, University of Saskatchewan

Blockchain has already proven its huge influence on the financial world with its first application in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It might not be long before its impact is felt everywhere.

Blockchain is a secure chain of digital records that exist on multiple computers simultaneously so no record can be erased or falsified. The...



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Insider Scoop

Cars.com Explores Strategic Alternatives, Analyst Sees Possible Sale Price Around $30 Per Share

Courtesy of Benzinga.

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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

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Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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