Archive for 2012

Gauging Investor Sentiment with Twitter: New Update

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.


Over the last week the Downside Hedge Twitter Sentiment Indicator stayed strong as a large majority of the tweets called for higher prices or talked about the market holding support. The smoothed sentiment indicator stayed above zero showing strength over several days even as the market consolidated. Of note is Friday’s high reading on daily sentiment. The markets closed mixed, but daily sentiment recorded our second highest reading ever. Usually we only see high readings on significant price movement to the upside. A high reading on a flat day near market highs is in response to people tweeting their anticipation of a move higher (rather than calling a top or shorting the current level). We’ll be watching to see if this indicates an overbought condition or is forecasting the next move.

Twitter Support and Resistance levels on the S&P 500 Index tightened substantially last week with most tweets calling for 1450 as a bottom and 1500 as a top. We see these levels as primary support and resistance with 1400 as the next major support level. We still have 1440 and 1422 on our radar, but consider them now to be minor support. This change is due to the large volume of tweets that consider 1450 as critical (rather than the previous break out point of 1440).

1475 on SPX is becoming minor resistance as people point to the most recent high as a level that needs to be overcome. However, 1500 remains major resistance as it is mentioned in a large volume of tweets over a two month period. The outliers on the high side from two weeks ago were not reiterated last week so it appears that the current consolidation is dampening the enthusiasm seen on the break above 1440.

We’re watching for a break above 1475 on SPX or below 1450 for the next directional move. A break out above 1475 should carry the market to 1500. A break down below 1450 could bring a correction that falls to minor support at 1422 or even major support at 1400.


For background information on this indicator, see Gauging Investor Sentiment with Twitter.

Blair Jensen at Downside Hedge tracks Twitter sentiment and provides hedging strategies for individual investors.

 

 

 

 





Swing trading portfolio – week of September 17th, 2012

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

Swing trading virtual portfolio

 

One trade virtual portfolio

 





Email From Lead Analyst, Weekly Petroleum Supply Team on Possibility of Recession

Courtesy of Mish.

In response to Petroleum And Gasoline Usage Charts for June, July, August; Unemployment vs. Gasoline Usage Analysis, a post based on weekly petroleum stats from reader Tim Wallace, I received a very nice email including a superb set of charts from James Beck, Lead Analyst, Weekly Petroleum Supply Team for the Energy Information Administration.

James gave me permission to use his name and his charts as long as I mentioned that his email reflects his personal opinions, not necessarily that of the EIA. 

It is a pleasure to get an email from a government worker who takes his job seriously, is exceptionally knowledgeable on his subject, and is willing to be quoted by name.

James writes …

Hello, Mike and Tim,

Thank you again for using the data from the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) in your analyses of the demand of petroleum and gasoline. As the Lead Analyst for the WPSR at the Energy Information Administration, I always appreciate when others use our data in providing analysis!

I have updated my charts that I sent to you a few months ago. I have included Total Petroleum “Product Supplied” (a proxy for demand), Gasoline Product Supplied, Total Distillate (Diesel and Heating Oil) Product Supplied, and Kerosene Jet Fuel Product Supplied charts for you to review. These charts (with all of their data included) are based on the EIA’s Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) data. The reason to look at the monthly numbers is that they are more reliable than the weekly as the survey is of the entire industry and there is a great deal of extra time used to verify the data. Many people believe that the monthly numbers are a revision of the weekly numbers. This is not true. These are separate surveys. Where the monthly surveys the entire industry and collects much more detailed information, the weekly information is based on a sample of the industry drawn from the monthly reporters, collects less information, and is focused on timeliness versus completeness. The weekly numbers are estimates of the most recent week’s data based on the sample and are a snapshot in time. The weekly is a very good indicator of the data, but the monthly is the touchstone (at least until the Petroleum Supply Annual (PSA) is released--which


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Spain is Greece… Only Bigger and Worse

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Phoenix Capital Research.

 

 

Swing by www.gainspainscapital.com for more market commentary, investment strategies, and several FREE reports devoted to help you navigate the coming economic and capital market changes safely.

 

As I’ve outlined in earlier articles, Spain will be the straw that breaks the EU’s back. The country’s private Debt to GDP is above 300%. Spanish banks are loaded with toxic debts courtesy of a housing bubble that makes the US’s look like a small bump in comparison. And the Spanish government is bankrupt as well.

 

Indeed, in the last month alone we’ve seen:

 

  1. Spain’s banking system saw a bank run to the tune of €70 billion in August. The market cap for all of Spain’s banks is just €114 billion. So Spanish banks need to raise at least €20+ billion or so per month in the coming months to stay afloat. This is without depositors pulling additional funds in September onwards. That’s really bad news.

 

  1. Spain’s now nationalized Bankia just took another €5.4 billion from Spain’s in-country rescue fund. This indicates that once nationalized, problem banks DO NOT cease to be problems.

 

  1. The region of Andalusia is requesting a bailout from the Spanish Federal Government. This comes on the heels of bailout requests from the regions of Valencia, Murcia and Catalonia (none of which want any “conditions” on the funds).

 

  1. Spain has set aside €18 billion to bailout its regions. The current bailout requests already amount to €10.8 billion. That’s just from this year alone.

 

If you need more info on Spain, the bullet items from them that you need to know are that:

 

  1. A huge portion of Spain’s banking system (representing over 50% of mortgage loans AND deposits) was totally unregulated up until just a few years ago.
  2. Spanish banks were drawing €337 billion from the ECB on a monthly basis to fund their liquidity needs.
  3. Every political figure and bank in Spain is HIGHLY incentivized to lie about the true nature of the Spanish banking system (a private text message from the Prime Minister claimed the REAL capital needs were closer to €500 billion… which is assuming he knows what he’s talking about/ the banks were honest with him… which I HIGHLY


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Postcards from a Furious China

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Over the past 48 hours we have written much, describing the perfectly expected surge in nationalist fervor and anti-Japanese sentiment, as the Senkaku Islands Snafu hits its boiling point – a Japan whose GDP is now declining in real terms, whose economy has been crippled by years of deflation, whose infrastructure is impaired due to anti-nuclear power sentiment, and one which generally can not afford an all out diplomatic, political and economic conflict with China, and may thus ask itself: why escalate and just who prompted it do so now? A Japan whose economic status is best summarized with the following chart:

Instead we'll let the pictures do the talking.

From brightonatreddit

Demonstrations in Changsha, Hunan

A store display in Nanjing bears the sign THE DIAOYU ISLANDS BELONG TO CHINA!.

A banner on a store called pattad reads: "pattad firmly defends China's right to the Diaoyu Islands. / We will give a 15% discount to customers who yell THE DIAOYU ISLANDS BELONG TO CHINA! in the store / We will give a 20% discount to customers who yell JAPAN ALSO BELONGS TO CHINA!"

Demonstrations in China

Chinese protestors congregate outside the Japanese embassy in Beijing.

At an auto show, a Chinese brand car is draped in a PRC flag that reads PATRIOTIC SPENDING / BUY CHINESE GOODS.

Chinese flags outside a sushi restaurant.

A sushi restaurant in Suzhou is demolished by protestors.

Rioters in Qingdao demolish shops.


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The Market and Quantitative Easing: A Quick Snaphot

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Late last month I featured an interesting chart by Phil Gose, of Capital Resource Management in Iowa. The chart featured the S&P 500 with annotations on key events, including Fed intervention, over the past five years. At that time many market pundits were speculating that Fed Chairman Bernanke will use his Jackson Hole, Wyoming, speech to set the stage for another round of Quantitative Easing, aka QE3. And that’s exactly what he did. The actual announcement of QE3 came in the press release at the end of the two-day September FOMC meeting last Thursday.

Here is Phil’s updated chart, sent to me Friday afternoon. Phil added annotations to show how much “pop” the market experienced after each announced event. You can study this picture and come to your own conclusions, but it is especially interesting to see the previous gains prior to the “sugar” wearing off.

 

 

Will we get a comparable pop this time? Or has much of it already been priced into the S&P 500 at the current level. Stay Tuned!

 

 

 

 

 

 





The Chart Spain’s Mariano Rajoy Wishes Could Be Swept Under The Rug

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

A week ago, after peripheral European bonds soared and yields plunged on more hype and more promises that the ECB may monetize debt on the one condition that insolvent countries hand over sovereignty to the Troika ala Greece, we were not all surprised to learn that “suddenly, nobody in Europe wants the ECB bailout.” And why should they? After all, The whole point of the gambit was to lower bond rates, which happened, which would allow insolvent government to stack even more debt courtesy of lower rates on top of record debt, taking the insanity of the old saying “fixing an insolvency problem with liquidity” one step further, and revising it to “fixing an insolvency problem with more insolvency.” Furthermore, if the mere threat of the ECB stepping in and crushing any shorts or supporting longs was enough, why even bother with actual intervention. Simple: even infinite monetary dilution has its limits. That limit is and always has been cash flow, because a central bank can only dilute wealth, never create it. And for Spain said limit is approaching fast.

Recall that as we calculated on September 3, Spain is rapidly running out of cash: its consolidated cash balance has plunged from over €50 billion in March to just over €20 billion in July and dropping at an alarming rate. The cause for this drop: a budget deficit that refuses to go away, and with ~25% unemployment, what the government does to the tax rate is irrelevant as the Laffer curve crosses into the twilight zone of the Laughter Curve.

Recall also that Goldman made it very clear that Rajoy has to request an ECB bailout last week, because while he may posture for political reasons knowing once he invites the Troika his political career is done, and such posturing will cause even greater conditionality to be ultimately imposed on Spain, the real gating issue is cash.

Enter the chart that Rajoy wishes did not exist: the net cash in/outflow into the Spanish treasury due to bond/interest activity.

As is quite obvious on the chart above, and explains Goldman’s urgency with a formal Spanish ECB activation request, the closer we get to October, the closer Spain gets to running out of cash. And in that particular…
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The Fed’s Drugs Won’t Work Anymore

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Burkhardt.

QE3. No QE3. The markets have been injected with this hopium for months and have been let down on every occasion except for this last one. The Fed’s issuance of this last round of quantitative easing has rendered future doses of this drug ineffective.

It was explicitly stated that the Fed would issue QE as needed in unlimited amounts until the market is able to create enough jobs to stimulate dramatic growth. This means that there will not likely be any future spikes in the market as a result of another QE announcement…the market no longer questions whether or not more drugs will come, now they expect them.

The Fed had been using “QE hype” to rally the markets. Every time we were on the verge of a collapse another QE announcement would be made bringing us a few feet back from the fiscal cliff. But that tactic wont work anymore…

The Fed’s actions are fiscally irresponsible and the U.S. will quickly suffer the consequences of this poor decision. If the economic change needed to return to growth is structural then a monetary fix, or QE, isn’t the remedy.

The U.S. Dollar is on the decline against other major currencies, and investors are losing confidence in the Fed’s ability to manage the ensuing risk of another recession. Question that remains, what happens when the QE drug gets taken away?

It’s time to hedge; if the value of the U.S. dollar collapses how will you respond? Diversification is key. Learn to manage your risk by looking a head; join the Forward Thinking waiting list now.

Your currency analyst,

Justin Burkhardt





Trading Jobs

Courtesy of Declan Fallon

The latest set of trading related jobs are listed here:

Senior Investment Advisor
Investment Advisor Representative
Investment Advisor II
Investment Specialist
Entry Level Investment & Insurance Advisor – Financial Advisor
Financial Advisor / Insurance and Investment Services
Management Trainee Investment Advisor
Investment Advisor, Management Trainee
Financial Advisor – Investment Advisor Representative
Investment Advisor
Investment Advisor
Credit Risk Manager and Modeler
Private Bank – Alternative Investments Group – Head of Equity Strategies
Senior Equities Compliance Officer
VP – US Equity Finance Trader
Equity Sales Trader
Credit Risk Manager
Portfolio Manager II
Senior Relationship Manager – High Profile Firm
Execution Trader, Fixed Income & Protected Growth
Stock/Options Trader: Trade Firm Capital
Single Stock Vol Trader
Trader/Portfolio Manager
High Frequency Trader / Scientist
Associate – Senior Sales Trader
Proprietary Equity Trader
Junior Equity Trader
Experienced Equity Options Trader
Equity Sales Trader
Proprietary Equity Trader Position

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Richard Koo Explains It’s Not The Fed, Stupid; It’s The Fiscal Cliff!

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While Koo-nesianism is only one ideological branch removed from Keynesianism, Nomura’s Richard Koo’s diagnosis of the crisis the advanced economies of the world faces has been spot on. We have discussed the concept of the balance sheet recession many times and this three-and-a-half minute clip from Bloomberg TV provides the most succinct explanation of not just how we got here but why the Fed is now impotent (which may come as a surprise to those buying stocks) and why it is the fiscal cliff that everyone should be worried about. As Koo notes, the US “is beginning to look more like Japan… going through the same process that Japan went through 15 years earlier.” The Japanese experience made it clear that when the private sector is minimizing debt (or deleveraging) with very low interest rates, there is little that monetary policy can do.The government cannot tell the private sector don’t repay your balance sheets
because private sector must repair its balance sheets. In Koo’s words: “the only thing the
government can do is to spend the money that the private sector has saved and put that
back into the income stream” – which (rightly or wrongly) places the US economy in the hands of the US Congress (and makes the Fed irrelevant).

 

DEIRDRE BOLTON, BLOOMBERG NEWS ANCHOR:  Based on the data points, the economic data points we’ve got in the past month, how likely is it that the U.S. is heading towards a lost decade? Is it more or less likely than what you told us about four to six months ago?

RICHARD KOO, CHIEF ECONOMIST, NOMURA RESEARCH INSTITUTE: Well, it is beginning to look more like Japan. The amount of house price declines, the commercial real estate price declines there, all following the Japanese pattern very precisely and very slow GDP growth, even with all this monetary easing, QE2, possibly QE3.

So yes, to me, the United States is going through the same process of what I call balance sheet recession, that Japan went through 15 years earlier.

BOLTON: You mentioned the possibility of QE3. What should Ben Bernanke do today in his speech and then what should he do as a follow-up action?

KOO: Well, actually, the Japanese experience told us that when
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Phil's Favorites

Congress is considering privacy legislation - be afraid

 

Congress is considering privacy legislation – be afraid

Courtesy of Jeff Sovern, St. John's University

Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis called privacy the “right to be let alone.” Perhaps Congress should give states trying to protect consumer data the same right.

For years, a gridlocked Congress ignored privacy, apart from occasionally scolding companies such as Equifax and Marriott after their major data breaches. In its absence, ...



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Zero Hedge

Key Events This Week: Trade War, EU Elections, Durables, PMIs And Fed Minutes

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Looking at this week's key events, Deutsche Bank's Craig Nicol writes that while the unpredictable nature of US-China trade developments will likely continue to be the main focus for markets again next week, we also have the European Parliament elections circus to look forward to as well as various survey reports including the flash May PMIs which may offer some insight into the impact of trade escalation on economic data. The FOMC and ECB meeting minutes are also due, along with a heavy calendar of Fed officials speaking.

The European Parliament elections will kick off next Thursday with voting continuing into the weekend across the continent, with results expected on Sunday. With the elections surrounded by internal and external challenges for the EU, members di...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Will S&P 500 Double Top Derail The Rally?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The rally off the December stock market lows has been strong, to say the least. The S&P 500 rallied 25 percent before hitting and testing the 2018 high.

The old highs proved to be formidable resistance and ushered in some volatility in May… and a 5 percent pullback.

In today’s 2-pack, we look at that resistance level – could that be a double top? We can see similar patterns develop on the S&P 500 Index and its Equal Weight counterpart.

Both indexes are testing short-term Fibonacci retracement levels of the recent decline at point (2).

What takes place here after potential double top highs will be important. Stay tuned...



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Insider Scoop

60 Biggest Movers From Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Gainers
  • Fastly, Inc. (NYSE: FSLY) shares jumped 50 percent to close at $23.99 on Friday. Fastly priced its 11.25 million share IPO at $16 per share.
  • Outlook Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: OTLK) shares climbed 37.3 percent to close at $2.10 on Friday after the stock rose over 68 percent Thursday following an Oppenheimer initiation at Outperform with a price target of $12.
  • Cray Inc. (NASDAQ: CRAY) shares rose 22.5 percent to close at $36.52 after Hewlett Packard Enterpri...


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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap May 18, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

China – U.S. trade talk continued to dominate the week.   A heavy selloff Monday was followed by 3 up days, with Friday moderately down.

On Monday, Chinese officials announced retaliatory tariffs against the U.S., hitting $60 billion in annual exports to China with new or expanded duties that could reach 25%.

Then on Wednesday:

The Trump administration plans to delay a decision on instituting new tariffs on car and auto part imports for up to six months, according to media reports.

...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>