Archive for 2012

America – and Western Civilization – Was Founded on a Conspiracy Theory

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by George Washington.

The Constitution, Magna Carta and Democracy Itself Are Based on the Idea that – Without Checks and Balances – Those In Power Will Take Advantage of Us

America was founded on a conspiracy theory: that Britain’s King George and his men were conspiring against the colonists.

The Declaration of Independence recites a series of conspiracies:

When a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism … The history of the present King of Great Britain [and others working with and for him] is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States. To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world.

***

He has called together legislative bodies at places unusual, uncomfortable, and distant from the depository of their public Records, for the sole purpose of fatiguing them into compliance with his measures.

***

He has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither, and raising the conditions of new Appropriations of Lands.

***

He has made Judges dependent on his Will alone, for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries.

He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harrass our people, and eat out their substance.

He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies without the Consent of our legislatures.

***

He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his Assent to their Acts of pretended Legislation:

***

For protecting them, by a mock Trial, from punishment for any Murders which they should commit on the Inhabitants of these States:

***

For abolishing the free System of English Laws in a neighbouring Province, establishing therein an Arbitrary government, and enlarging its Boundaries so as to render it at once an example and fit instrument for introducing the same absolute rule into these Colonies:

***

For suspending our own Legislatures, and declaring themselves invested with power to legislate for


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Secular Bull and Bear Markets

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Was the March 2009 low the end of a secular bear market and the beginning of a secular bull? Without crystal ball, we simply don’t know.

One thing we can do is examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of possibilities. An obvious feature of this inflation-adjusted is the pattern of long-term alternations between up-and down-trends. Market historians call these “secular” bull and bear markets from the Latin word saeculum “long period of time” (in contrast to aeternus “eternal” — the type of bull market we fantasize about).


 

 

If we study the data underlying the chart, we can extract a number of interesting facts about these secular patterns:

 

 

The annualized rate of growth from 1871 through the end of August (the most recent inflation data) is 2.03%. If that seems incredibly low, remember that the chart shows “real” price growth, excluding inflation and dividends. If we factor in the dividend yield, we get an annualized return of 6.66%. Yes, dividends make a difference. Unfortunately that has been less true during the past three decades than in earlier times. When we let Excel draw a regression through the data, the slope is an even lower annualized rate of 1.73% (see the regression section below for further explanation).

If we added in the value lost from inflation, the “nominal” annualized return comes to 8.89% — the number commonly reported in the popular press. But for a more accurate view of the purchasing power of the market dollars, we’ll stick to “real” numbers.

Since that first trough in 1877 to the March 2009 low:

  • Secular bull gains totaled 2075% for an average of 415%.
  • Secular bear losses totaled -329% for an average of -65%.
  • Secular bull years total 80 versus 52 for the bears, a 60:40 ratio.

This last bullet probably comes as a surprise to many people. The finance industry and media have conditioned us to view every dip as a buying opportunity. If we realize that bear markets have accounted for…
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Swing trading portfolio – week of September 24th, 2012

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

Swing trading virtual portfolio

 

One trade virtual portfolio

 





France Set to Implode; Troika Soap Opera; Grappling with Neo-Nazis

Courtesy of Mish.

The soap opera in Greece continues with Germany and France tugging on opposite sides of the rope, and support for Golden Dawn, an alleged neo-Nazi party rising in the wake.

French president François Hollande is on the sidelines, not wanting another battle with German chancellor Angela Merkel who has her own set of problems.

However, the French Prime Minister says Give Greece More Time.

Jean-Marc Ayrault, the prime minister, taking a clear swipe at those in Germany insisting on a hard line against Athens, warned that a Greek exit from the eurozone would be “unmanageable” and could be “the beginning of the end of the European project”.

Speaking in an interview with the French news website Mediapart, Mr Ayrault said: “We can already offer [Greece] more time . . . on the condition that Greece is sincere in its commitment to reform, especially tax reform.”

France’s chief fear is that a compounding of the eurozone crisis would turn the spotlight of the financial markets on itself and the country’s public debt, which is set to exceed 90 per cent of GDP.

France Set to Implode

France wants to give Greece more time because it needs more time. Of course France will not admit that, instead insisting it will meet its deficit targets, primarily by hiking taxes.

Forget about it. France has no chance of meeting its deficit reduction targets because ridiculous tax hikes in the middle of a recession, while simultaneously making it harder for businesses to fire workers are exactly the wrong things to do.

Instead of meeting its targets, I propose Hollande’s policies have made it highly likely France is poised to implode. It should not take more than a few months, if that.

Troika Soap Opera

Please consider Paris focuses on Athens’ Achilles heel

Greek media have called the negotiations – which have seen late-night sessions at the finance ministry and departures at short notice of senior EU and IMF officials – the “troika soap opera”.



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The Fed Has Another $3.9 Trillion In QE To Go (At Least)

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Some wonder why we have been so convinced that no matter what happens, that the Fed will have no choice but to continue pushing the monetary easing pedal to the metal. It is actually no secret: we explained the logic for the first time back in March of this year with "Here Is Why The Fed Will Have To Do At Least Another $3.6 Trillion In Quantitative Easing." The logic, in a nutshell, is simple: everyone who looks at modern monetary practice (as opposed to theory) through the prism of a 1980s textbook is woefully unprepared for the modern capital markets reality for one simple reason: shadow banking; and when accounting for the ongoing melt of shadow banking credit intermediates, which continues to accelerate, the Fed has a Herculean task ahead of it in restoring consolidated credit growth.

Shadow banking, as we have explained many times most recently here, is merely an unregulated, inflationary-buffer (as it has no matched deposits) which provides the conventional banking credit transformations such as maturity, credit and liquidity, in the process generating term liabilities. In yet other words, shadow banking creates credit money which can then flow into monetary conduits such as economic "growth" or capital markets, however without creating the threat of inflation – if anything shadow banks are the biggest systemic deflationary threat, as due to the relatively short-term nature of their duration exposure, they tend to lock up at the first sing of trouble (see Money Markets breaking the buck within hours of the Lehman failure) and lead to utter economic mayhem unless preempted. Well, preempting the collapse in the shadow banking system is precisely what the Fed's primary role has so far been, even more so than pushing the S&P to new all time highs. The problem, however, as we will show today, is that even with the Fed's balance sheet at $2.8 trillion and set to rise to $5 trillion in 2 years, it will not be enough.

Before we begin, we urge readers new to this topic to read some of the more pertinent posts we have written on the issue of shadow banking, as it is not a simple subject. Some of the more relevant ones:


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The Global Trade Cycle Turns Lower

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

It should come as no surprise – to anyone but the most whocouldanode crowd – but global trade volumes are slowing notably, and surprise surprise, Europe is leading the lag. Between the total lack of any sustainable trade advantage that the PIIGS suffer from (discussed here) and recent outlook cuts from FedEx and UPS (detailed here), it is not a shock that the following detailed charts of Import and Export volumes for China, US, Japan, and Europe are starting to drop notably. Just as we pointed out here, Europe remains the hub of around half of World Trade and as is clear, the myth of decoupling among the world's largest economies is smoke-and-mirrors as it is a lead-lag relationship that is now proven to be entirely un-decoupled as 'obviously' the import and export sides of the world's imbalanced economies show trade is falling in a hurry.

 

As Barclays notes:

The weakness of the euro area is particularly apparent in considering global trade, where the slump in euro area import demand is discernible. Additionally, there has in recent months been a leveling out in import volumes for the US and Japan, while Chinese imports (albeit a more volatile series) also weakened up to August. In turn this has led to weakness in exports at the global level, with Asian exports to Europe particularly adversely affected.

 

Source: Barclays





You’re Dreaming If You Think The Euro Crisis Is Resolved

You're Dreaming If You Think The Euro Crisis Is Resolved

Courtesy of The Automatic Earth

 

The German edition of Der Spiegel opens the new week on Monday morning with a series of articles on the European situation, which make clear, as if that were still necessary, that Europe is still an absolute mess. You know, just in case you thought it was not. That Mario Draghi's latest unlimited whatever it is had somehow chased away the demons.

First, Der Spiegel writes that the Greek deficit is twice as high as previously thought,, at €20 billion, according to a preliminary version of the long awaited troika report. The gap has to be closed for the next tranche of bailout money to be paid.

Second, eurozone countries plan to let the ESM balloon to over €2 trillion ($2.6 trillion). Remember that the German Constitutional Court limited Berlin's part to about €119 billion recently. Creative accounting to infinity and beyond. The efforts to keep the union together will blow it apart.

Third, former German FInance Minister Steinbrueck works on a banking plan that would split up investment and retail activities for Germany's banks (including Deutsche), think Glass Steagall. He wants to ban commodities speculation. And he wants a bank-ESM, a fund paid for by banks that can be used to bail them out, rather than taxpayer money.

There's lot more going on, and going wrong, in Europe, no matter what Draghi does, and no matter what plans José Manuel Barroso unveils. When I saw that the latter was seriously talking about establishing a European army, I couldn't help thinking: will it bring all those translators to the battlefield too?

Europe is not a country, it is not a culture, and it is not a language. It is a loose union that consists of many of each. Europe can hold together in times of plenty, and it will fall apart in meagre times. The only thing Europeans have power over – to a degree – is how the process of unravelling will unfold; they can't stop the process. The present attempts to hold the union together at all costs will be extremely costly, they have zero chance of succeeding, and they will lead to violence. The alternative, an attempt to live together as good and peaceful neighbors outside of a currency union, is not even considered. And I'm pretty sure…
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CBO on Electric Cars – Don’t Buy Them!

Courtesy of Bruce Krasting.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) did a good job of shredding the electric car industry and the government’s role in its evolution with this report (Link):

 

I’m not knocking electric cars, I’m knocking DC’s role in this industry. Washington has provided the loot necessary for research on battery design, it has committed to up to $25Bn of soft loans to the auto industry and it is subsidizing every electric car that is sold. Without the massive support from our “rich” Uncle Sam there would be no electric car industry in the USA. The question is, “Is this money well spent?”

The government’s role with electric cars goes back to the 2009 emergency spending program ARRA (American Recovery and Reinvestment Act):

ARRA provided $2 billion in funding to the Department of Energy (DOE) for grants under that program. Of that amount, $1.5 billion was awarded to battery producers, intermediate suppliers for those producers, and recyclers of vehicle batteries; the other $500 million was awarded to manufacturers of components for electric vehicles and intermediate suppliers of that manufacturing.



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Latest Trading Jobs

Courtesy of Declan Fallon

The latest round of trading jobs are available here:

Fixed Income – Quantitative Analyst
Fixed Income – Business Analyst
Fixed Income – C++ Developer
Fixed Income Implementation Consultant
EM Fixed Income Sales
Desk Analyst, Fixed Income
Director Fixed Income Trading
Associate Trader – Fixed Income
Developer – Java, Fixed Income
Fixed Income Business Analyst
Manager of Fixed Income Technology
Business Analyst – Fixed Income
Fixed Income

Other jobs of interest include

Senior Investment Advisor
Investment Advisor Representative
Investment Advisor II
Investment Specialist
Entry Level Investment & Insurance Advisor – Financial Advisor
Management Trainee Investment Advisor
Investment Advisor, Management Trainee
Financial Advisor – Investment Advisor Representative
Investment Advisor
Credit Risk Manager and Modeler
Private Bank – Alternative Investments Group – Head of Equity Strategies
Senior Equities Compliance Officer
VP – US Equity Finance Trader
Equity Sales Trader
Credit Risk Manager
Portfolio Manager II
Senior Relationship Manager – High Profile Firm
Execution Trader, Fixed Income & Protected Growth
Stock/Options Trader: Trade Firm Capital
Single Stock Vol Trader
Trader/Portfolio Manager
High Frequency Trader / Scientist
Associate – Senior Sales Trader
Proprietary Equity Trader
Experienced Equity Options Trader
Equity Sales Trader
Proprietary Equity Trader Position

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KISS for Traders

KISS for Traders

Allan Trends Weekend Update

Courtesy of Allan of Allan Trends

New Signals

SPX Hourly Trend Model————–>LONG (hourly charts are specifically for day-trading)

TJX Daily Trend Model——————>SHORT

GS Weekly Trend Model—————–>LONG

Weekend Market Analysis

Is there any reason to not trade this model, or for that matter, to trade only this model?

[click on charts to enlarge] 

 

VXX Trend Model & XIV

 

Boredom would be one reason. In over three months, there has only been a single trade. The success of this model is especially satisfying because it represents a refusal to heard, to graze in the crowd of the nasayers who complain that volatility (VIX, VXX, XIV) is a rigged game, only useful as a hedge, or a very short-term trade. What our algorithm says is a trend is a trend, whether it be in volatility, stocks, precious metals or entrails. Trend following is a just too simple minded approach to trading to garner much respect from most market technicians.

For me, the less lines and noise on the chart, the better I see what is really happening.

 

SLV & GLD Daily Trend Models

 

Silver and Gold are quickly becoming my second favorite trend models. As I suggested so many times, precious metals are some of the best trending commodities and both SLV and GLD have provided excellent trends to participate in this summer. Going into fall, they are both still Long, but look at all of that air between price and the trend line. That space may need to get filled before another leg up.

As for the indices, let’s take a look at the performance of the Dow over the summer:

 

DJIA Daily Trend Model

 

What strikes me most about this chart are the two excellent trend signals. But also note how well the trend line provided support and/or entry points all of the…
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ValueWalk

#1 Performing Global Macro Hedge Fund Sees More Shorts Opportunities Ahead As China Bursts

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Crescat Global Macro Fund update to investors on 1/19/2019

Crescat Global Macro Fund and Crescat Long/Short fund delivered strong returns for both December and full year 2018 in a difficult market. Based on ...



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Zero Hedge

Johns Hopkins, Bristol-Myers Face $1 Billion Suit For Infecting Guatemalan Hookers With Syphilis 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A federal judge in Maryland said Johns Hopkins University, pharmaceutical company Bristol-Myers Squibb and the Rockefeller Foundation must face a $1 billion lawsuit over their roles in a top-secret program in the 1940s ran by the US government that injected hundreds of Guatemalans with syphilis, reported Reuters.

Several doctors from Hopkins an...



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Phil's Favorites

Divisive economics

 

Guest author David Brin — scientist, technology consultant, best-selling author and futurist — explores the records of Democrats and Republicans on the US economy in the following post. For David's latest posts, visit the CONTRARY BRIN blog. For his books and short stories, visit his web...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stock declines did not break 9-year support, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We often hear “Stocks take an escalator up and an elevator down!” No doubt stocks did experience a swift decline from the September highs to the Christmas eve lows. Looks like the “elevator” part of the phrase came true as 2018 was coming to an end.

The first part of the “stocks take an escalator up” seems to still be in play as well despite the swift decline of late.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- All of these indices hit long-term rising support on Christmas Eve at each (1), where support held and rallies have followed.

If you find long-term perspectives helpf...



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Digital Currencies

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

 

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

Blockchain technologies can empower people by allowing them more control over their user data. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ajay Kumar Shrestha, University of Saskatchewan

Blockchain has already proven its huge influence on the financial world with its first application in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It might not be long before its impact is felt everywhere.

Blockchain is a secure chain of digital records that exist on multiple computers simultaneously so no record can be erased or falsified. The...



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Insider Scoop

Cars.com Explores Strategic Alternatives, Analyst Sees Possible Sale Price Around $30 Per Share

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related 44 Biggest Movers From Yesterday 38 Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Mid-Day Session ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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