Archive for 2012

THe WoRLD iS FIAT…

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by williambanzai7.

THE WORLD IS FIAT

 

 

COLUMBEN: THE WORLD IS FIAT

(WilliamBanzai7)

In the year two zero one and two
ColumBen sailed the fiat ocean blue.

He had three ships and left insane;
QE 1, 2 and 3 and a Keynesian brain.

He schemed by night; he fooled by day;
This PhD farce always got his way.

A Keynesian compass helped him know
How to schtup each and every average Joe.

Ninety men were on board;
Those men worked while the bankstas snored.

Then when the workers went to sleep;
The bankstas screwed them like big sheep.

Day after day they looked for Ponziland;
They dreamed of fiat trees and Ponzi sand.

October 8 their dream came true,
You never saw a bigger BLS Bullshit stew!

Look: “Employed Indians!” ColumBen cried;
His heart was filled with joyful pride.

But “India” the land was not;
It was Amerika, and it’s economy was shot.

The angry natives weren’t very nice;
All they gave the bankstas was a noose.

ColumBen sailed to find some Ponzi gold
To bring back home, as he’d been told.

He made the trip again and again,
But all he found was an empty Keynesian pen.

 

 

.
THE WORLD IS FLAT





As Hugo Chavez Wins Presidential Re-election Someone Makes Absolute Killing On InTrade

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Moments ago the Venezuelan Electoral Council (one wonders if the term ‘Hanging Chad’ has a different meaning down there?), announced that with 90% of the votes counted, and an 80.4% turnout, the winner of 54.4% of the vote, and still reigning presidential champion, is Venezuela’s Hugo Chaved. This is not surprising. What is quite stunning however, is that someone made an absolute killing in the Chavez reelection contract, which after trading in the 80s range (indicating an 80% probability of reelection), dipped moments ago to the low 20s, following speculation Chavez may be on the way out, only to soar to 99.9 as of the last trade. In other words, someone just made 5x their money on the Chavez vote in minutes, money which has most likely been well spent on Cuban Cohibas by now. Congrats.

Source: Intrade





Why ‘Savers’ Should Vote Republican And ‘Homeowners’ Democrat

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Forget the nuances of taxes, abortion rights, social warfare welfare, religion, or entitlements. The following chart is all the average US Citizen needs to know in order to unflap that hanging chad in November…

 

 

Of course, we are being a little disingenuous, but the last 50 years of election cycles show a very clear rise in interest rates post-election when Republicans win and an even more pronounced drop in interest rates post-election when the Democrats have won.

 

However, it might be different this time…

 

Source: Citi





As World Awaits Venezuela Presidential Results, Tanks Enter Caracas

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Update: HUGO CHAVEZ WINS VENEZUELA RE-ELECTION, ELECTORAL COUNCIL SAYS. Contrary to exit polls as noted earlier, Chavez won 54.4% of the vote, with 90% of the votes counted, and a 80.4% turnout, according to the Electoral Council. At least the local APCs are fully stocked on Whoppers for the next few days.

While the world awaits with bated breath to find out if Hugo Chavez has lost the first “presidential” election in 14 years (an outcome with major implications for the crude market), which according to the latest exit polls he was trailing 48.1% to 51.3% to challenger Henrique Capriles, Diebold post-processing and hanging chad pro forma-ing notwithstanding, the question is what happens if there is a peaceful overthrow at the helm of the Latin American commodities powerhouse. And we use the term “peaceful” loosely: because the twitter stream is currently abuzz with a picture of tanks in Venezuela’s capital as seen below. Hopefully they are merely waiting in line at the drive thru for the latest BK value meal and nothing more.

And since everyone knows what Hugo Chavez (who recently took possession of the country’s LBMA gold stash, perhaps rather prudently) looks like, here is what Venezuela’s next leader may very well look like if Caracas has not figured out how to operate the Diebold machines yet.

More from Reuters.

Venezuela’s presidential election looked headed for a close finish on Sunday with Hugo Chavez facing an unprecedented challenge to his socialist rule from a young rival tapping into discontent over crime and cronyism.

 

An energetic campaign by centrist state governor Henrique Capriles, 40, has united the opposition and turned him into its best chance in 14 years to unseat the popular president and take the reins of South America’s leading oil exporter.

 

Chavez has used record oil revenue to support ideological allies around the world while preaching a fiercely anti-Washington line, so the election is being watched eagerly from the United States to Belarus and Iran.

 

Polling stations closed at 6 p.m. local time (2230 GMT), except for those that still had voters waiting in line.

 

Sources on both sides predicted a narrow victory based on their own monitoring. Several unofficial exit polls gave divergent results,


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Merkel Protected by 6,000 Police; Expect Huge Anti-Austerity Protest; Greece Needs Time and Money (And Something Else)

Courtesy of Mish.

German chancellor Angela Merkel is visiting Greece this week in an alleged show of solidarity. Reuters notes it will take 6,000 police to protect her.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel will tell Greeks she wants to keep their country in the euro when she visits Athens this week, but she faces a hostile reception from a people worn down by years of austerity and recession.

Many Greeks blame Merkel, who has publicly chastised them for much of the past three years, for the nation’s plight. Opponents, some of whom have caricatured her as a bullying Nazi, have promised protests on Tuesday during her first visit to Greece since the euro zone crisis erupted there in 2009.

“She does not come to support Greece, which her policies have brought to the brink. She comes to save the corrupt, disgraced and servile political system,” said Alexis Tsipras, who leads the opposition Syriza alliance. “We will give her the welcome she deserves.”

About 6,000 policemen will be deployed in the capital for her 6-hour visit, turning the city centre into a no-go zone for protest marches planned by labour unions and opposition parties.

“We don’t want her here,” said Yannis Georgiou, 72, who has seen his pension cut by one third. “We will take to the streets against austerity and against the government. Maybe Merkel will hear something and see what we’re going through.”

Solidarity? Really?

Is Merkel’s visit really a show of solidarity? Solidarity between whom? Between politicians conspiring to screw Greeks for the benefit of banks?

Merkel Arrival in Athens to Be Met by Anti-Austerity Protesters

Bloomberg reports Merkel Arrival in Athens to Be Met by Anti-Austerity Protesters

“Mr. Samaras said we should welcome Mrs. Merkel as she deserves,” said Alexis Tsipras, the head of Syriza party, which finished second in the June elections and has urged workers, the unemployed and young people, to join the rallies. “We completely agree.”

Samaras has warned that soaring unemployment and political unrest risk the kind of upheaval that undermined the Weimar Republic in post-World War I Germany and ushered in the Nazis. His coalition is currently negotiating a new round of budget cuts to unlock the next aid payment to keep the country afloat.

GSEE and ADEDY, the umbrella


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Guest Post: America’s Hijackers – Where Are They Now?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Mark McHugh of Across The Street blog,

Spoiler Alert: They’re mostly still in office  (so much for building suspense).

On October 3, 2008, 338 elected officials (263 House reps, 74 Senators and 1 President) took it upon themselves to save America from certain financial doom by passing the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008, completely ignoring the will of the American people,  opting instead to fulfill a Thomas Jefferson prophesy:

“The end of democracy and the defeat of the American Revolution will occur when government falls into the hands of lending institutions and moneyed incorporations.” 
~ Thomas Jefferson

Texas representative Ron Paul had this to say:

“The money for this bailout does not just materialize out of thin air. The entire burden will be borne by the taxpayers, not now, because that is politically unacceptable, but in the future….our children and grandchildren will be burdened with increased taxes in order to pay that increased debt…. For years, many people have been warning about the housing bubble and the inevitable bust. Congress ignored the impending storm, and responded to this crisis with a poorly thought-out piece of legislation that will only further harm the economy. We ought to be ashamed.”

The most memorable component of that piece of treason legislation was the $700B TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program), which was scrapped by Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson 11 days later in favor of the Capital Purchase Program (CPP), which injected money directly into banks.  In February 2009, new Treasury Secretary Turbo Geithner ended the CPP and announced the Capital Assistance Program (CAP), which also blasted money directly into banks.

Fun Fact: Hankenstein Paulson worked at Goldman Sachs for 32 years and served as Treasury Secretary for 31 months.

So TARP never happened; making discussions of the program’s merits every bit as psychotic as analysis of Ross Perot’s presidency, but that didn’t stop CNBC from having a birthday cake for TARP, nor does it prevent politicians from claiming that the fictitious program was somehow profitable.  To make that claim, you must use accounting techniques pioneered by Homer Simpson in “Lard of the Dance” :

Homer Simpson: Okay, boy. This is where all the hard work, sacrifice, and painful scaldings pay
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Paris Luxury Apartment Prices Slide As French “1%”ers Dump Real Estate To Avoid Soaring Taxes

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Back in July, when the news of the French foray into the “fairness doctrine” hit, and we learned of Hollande’s plan to tax all those making over €1 million at a 75% tax rate, we said that “we are rotating our secular long thesis away from Belgian caterers and into tax offshoring advisors, now that nobody in the 1% will pay any taxes ever again.” We should have also added that we are buying all the available long-dated call options in French real estate firms, with the imminent surge in luxury real estate dumping, once the French “1%” decide they want nothing to do with a regime that is hell bent on confiscating 75% of their annual cash flow at first, and slowly moving toward pocketing the balance of their assets (remember what we said in September 2011: that 30% global tax on all financial assets in a New Normal insolvent, and wealth redistributive world, is inevitable, and it is coming). Sure enough, the wholesale dump of luxury properties has now begun.

AFP writes: “A flood of top-end properties are hitting the market as businessmen seek to leave France before stiff tax hikes hit, real estate agents and financial advisors say. “It’s nearly a general panic. Some 400 to 500 residences worth more than one million euros ($1.3 million) have come onto the Paris market,” said managers at Daniel Feau, a real-estate broker that specialises in high-end property.” But that would mean that in the New Normal real estate is once again merely a credit-bubble dependent, flippable asset: not a long-term housing investment, but merely one in which the pursuit of the greater fool is all that matters (not news to anyone here, but certainly news to all those who actually believe that ‘housing has bottomed’).

Turns out it hasn’t, and just like the stock market, it was simply an alternative asset class for those closest to the ZIRP cost basis, to invest their money until Uncle Socialist comes a-knocking.

From AFP:

A flood of top-end properties are hitting the market as businessmen seek to leave France before stiff tax hikes hit, real estate agents and financial advisors say.

 

“It’s nearly a general panic. Some 400 to 500 residences worth more than one million euros ($1.3 million) have come onto the Paris


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The Three Toughest Questions For China Bulls

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Whether you believe China is an economic miracle – or a government-sponsored fraud; and can ignore the broken growth model or believe that the CCP can bailout the world; Michael Pettis, of China Financial Markets, provides a much-needed dose of reality for bulls and bears when it comes to the future of the global growth engine. After summing up (and laying-waste to) the three mainstays of China bulls' arguments: he asks the three toughest questions any China bull must be able to answer. Analogizing China's position perfectly he cites Mills: "Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works." Simply put, the bull argument cannot ignore the hidden bad debt.

Via Michael Pettis, China Financial Markets: How To Be A China Bull

There seems to be a worried resistance to the idea that we may have reached a major and difficult transition. The unwillingness to acknowledge the difficulty of the transition, however, can only make the transition all the more difficult.

[The Bulls] are largely constrained themselves to three arguments, which are the same three very unsatisfying arguments that we have heard many times before.

First, they presented historical data showing rapid Chinese growth rates in the past three decades and proposed past growth rates as evidence of rapid Chinese growth rates in the next two decades. I probably don’t need to explain why this is a very weak argument.

Second, they asserted (many times) that since past predictions of failure have all turned out to be wrong, future predictions must also be wrong. If this were true it would, of course, be irrelevant, in the same way that people who predicted in 2002 that the Spanish real estate market was out of control might have been early but they most certainly weren’t wrong. Rudiger Dornbush once said: “The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought, and that’s sort of exactly the Mexican story. It took forever and then it took a night.”

But this argument, that past predictions have always been wrong, isn’t true. There have been predictions of failure in the past 20 years that


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Five Fun ‘Pre-Earnings’ Facts For The “Buy-The-F$$$ing-Dreamers”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

With the S&P 500 once again testing multi-year highs, forward P/Es over 14 in a real-rate environment which suggests single-digit P/Es, abnormal micro-structure (mega-caps outperforming and high-beta fading in an up-tape), and a buy-the-f$$king-'dream' mentality soaking in everywhere, we take a close-up view of the earnings season reality that is about to come crashing down on multiple-expansion hopes. Following on from the five most ridiculous charts in US equity markets, these five 'facts' will be assuaged by every long-only manager as 'priced-in' – we suspect otherwise.

 

 

  1. Downward EPS revisions have outnumbered upward revisions for 22 weeks
  2. For the S&P 500 companies, there have been 91 negative pre-announcements versus 21 positive
  3. The 4.3x negative-to-positive pre-announcement ratio is the highest since 2001
  4. Of the S&P 500 companies that have reported thus far (25 total), only 52% have exceeded expectations (long-term average is 63% and last four quarters average 67%)
  5. Overall Q3 earnings are expected to fall 2.5%

And as a reminder – Via Citi:

When investors consider the earnings expectations for the next several quarters, it must be noted that a few sectors seem to have an abundance of optimism that may or may not be warranted. For example, the Materials sector is showing a big bounce in 1H13 earnings projections that may require much more clarity on global economic reacceleration, while Financials are expected to rise sharply as well. Hence, these two areas might require some ratcheting down of forecasts and management teams may begin to do so in the next few weeks.

We have highlighted some of current measures of complacency, which may not be entirely appropriate in the very near term (next couple of months) given the US elections and the related fiscal cliff, recent European social unrest and the need to curtail some of the profit growth enthusiasm. In the medium term (2013), many of the analytical models we use still argue for overall market gains, and thus we believe weakness should be seen as a buying opportunity.

(h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer)





Jon Ronson: Strange answers to the psychopath test

Jon Ronson: Strange answers to the psychopath test

 

Quotes by Jon Ronson

"Well, I think I have a precarious sense of self anyway, but I'm also sane enough to notice when it's slipping."

"Capitalism, at its most remorseless, is a physical manifestation of psychopathy."

"It's a lot harder to convince people you're sane than it is to convince them you're crazy."

"[Journalists take] the outermost aspects of our interviewee's personality, and we stitch them together like medieval monks. We leave the normal stuff on the floor."

“He’s a grey area in a world that doesn’t like grey areas. Yet that’s where you find the complexity, the humanity, the truth.” 

Read more here >

 





 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

Overpriced tech IPOs sell grand visions but aren't worth their valuations

 

Overpriced tech IPOs sell grand visions but aren't worth their valuations

rblfmr / Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Colley, Warwick Business School, University of Warwick

The year of the tech IPO is 2019. Uber went public on May 10 with a US$82.4 billion valuation. Fellow ride-sharing app Lyft floated in March with a U$24 billion valuation and Pinterest had a US$10 billion IPO in April...



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Zero Hedge

Futures Slides As Trade Tensions Escalate

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

S&P futures were lower on Wednesday as investors sought safety in bonds, the Japanese yen and Swiss franc in muted trade amid renewed worries over the U.S.-China spat after reports Washington is considering cutting off the flow of American technology to as many as five Chinese companies including Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology, the world's largest supplier of video surveillance products, expanding the US crackdown on China beyond Huawei to include world leaders in video surveillance. The dollar and 10Y yield were unchanged ahead of today's FOMC Minutes.

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Emerging Markets About To Submerge If 3-Year Support Breaks?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Are Emerging Markets about to “Submerge” and head a good deal lower? What they do at (3) will go a long way in answering this question!

Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) has been lagging the broad market for the past 15-months. They hit their 50% retracement level of the last year’s highs and lows and falling resistance at (2) recently. The weakness of last has EEM trading below its 200-MA line.

EEM has spent the majority of the past 3-years inside of rising channel (1), which reflects that this trend remains up. The weakness of late has it testing the bo...



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Insider Scoop

Amgen To Buy Danish Collaborator Nuevolution For $167M

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Amgen, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) took a logical step forward in buying a preclinical biotech it has been collaborating with since 2016. 

What Happened

Amgen announced Wednesday an agreement to buy Copenhagen-based Nuevolution for $167 million.

Th...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap May 18, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

China – U.S. trade talk continued to dominate the week.   A heavy selloff Monday was followed by 3 up days, with Friday moderately down.

On Monday, Chinese officials announced retaliatory tariffs against the U.S., hitting $60 billion in annual exports to China with new or expanded duties that could reach 25%.

Then on Wednesday:

The Trump administration plans to delay a decision on instituting new tariffs on car and auto part imports for up to six months, according to media reports.

...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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