Courtesy of Mish.
On Friday, I lost a bet made in March of 2010 regarding unemployment. I bet that the unemployment rate would not dip below 8% before June 2015.
I crunched numbers many ways and simply decided there is no way the economy could possibly grow enough jobs. It didn’t and still won’t.
I posted this chart at the time.
Monthly Job Growth 1999-2009
At the height of the housing bubble economy only added 212,000 jobs a month. I figured we would not come close to that, yet even if we did, it still would not do it.
A miscalculation got into my way, otherwise known as a plunge in the participation rate. I knew full well the participation rate would drop on account of boomer demographics. But I never expected the plunge we got.
Were it not for millions dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate, even with the September barrage in part-time jobs would still be over 10%.
Had I made a similar bet on employment, rather than unemployment, the bet would still be going on. Interestingly, that bet would not have seemed as good to me at the time because the economy is naturally growing and employment with it.
Total Nonfarm Employment
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