Archive for 2012

You Have No Privacy, Conduct Yourself Accordingly

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by CrownThomas.

Former NSA employee William Binney (a very brave man), again tries to warn people about what is happening right now in regards to our civil liberties (or lack thereof). This disturbing video adds clarity to why the government is building that massive site in Utahthey simply need more space to consolidate the trillions of communications they’re collecting.

Re: I’m not doing anything wrong, so what do I care if they know what I say and do?

“The problem is, if they think they’re not doing anything that’s wrong, they don’t get to define that. The central government does.”

Re: How has this initiative been under Obama

“Oh it’s gotten worse”

 

 

Interestingly, he comments on Petraeus:

“If you ever get on their enemies list, like Petraus did, then you can be drawn into that surveillance.”

 

Happy texting.





Next Up For A “Recovering” Europe: A 30-50% Collapse In Wages In Spain, Italy And… France

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Several weeks ago Europe officially entered a double dip recession, and based on various secondary economic indicators, even Europe’s primary economic powerhouse, Germany, is on the verge of negative economic growth. The reasons for Europe’s woeful macroeconomic state are numerous, but boil down to two primary ones: i) massive external imbalances among Eurozone nations (think soaring peripheral debt) coupled with the inability to devalue the common currency as that would mean a failure and collapse of the joint currency union, ii) a desperate need for the periphery to regain price competitiveness (via wages and labor costs) with Germany in order to arrest and collapse an unemployment rate (general, but especially youth) that not even the most optimistic pundits dare claim is sustainable.

Said otherwise, most European countries (including France) face a desperate need for external devaluation, which is impossible under a monetary union, leaving only internal devaluation as an option. This is where the much maligned concept of austerity comes in:  from a macroeconomic perspective, austerity is not so much an exercise at moderating the pace of debt increase (as neither Spain nor Italy have reduced their rate of debt issuance), but of gradually becoming more price competitive with Germany: a key outcome that will be needed for the Eurozone to have any chance of survival, i.e., lowering sticky unemployment rates from levels that virtually assure social “disturbances” in the months and years ahead.

And herein lies the rub: because while protests against “austerity” (which as we observed recently has still not been truly implemented in Europe, and certainly not in Portugal or Spain) are a daily event in most PIIGS nations, “you ain’t seen nothing yet.“ The reason: to achieve the unavoidable macroeconomic rebalancing, and to collapse the spread between soaring labor costs in the periphery and those of Germany (see chart below), the bulk of European countries will need to see wages collapse by anywhere between 30% and 50% to compensate for the lack of state-level currency devaluation optionality. And yes, this includes France.

Goldman’s Huw Pill explains the scary future facing peripheral European workers:

We ask the following question: For the Euro area countries of interest, how big a real exchange rate depreciation (which (to recall) in monetary union means (to


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Investor Sentiment: This is an Issue

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by thetechnicaltake.

Ok, this is becoming an issue with this market. When looking at the sentiment data, we note 3 things. One, the bearish extremes in investor sentiment are not too extreme. The recent bearish extreme in the “dumb money” indicator (i.e., bull signal) has lasted all but one week. The last signal on June 8, 2012 lasted all but one week as well. Our models (over 20 years of data) usually see 2 or more weeks of bearishness amongst investors before a bottom is forged. Two, there is no consensus among the various sentiment data. For example, company insiders (i.e., the “smart money”) are typically buying when the “dumb money” is selling. But this past week, we find company insiders actually selling to a degree last seen when the Fed announced QE3. Three, there are no bears. When looking at the leveraged Rydex investors (personal data), we find that they are becoming more bearish, but they haven’t acted on that bearishness. They essentially have moved to the safety of the sidelines. Without committed and invested bears, there will be no short covering, and without short covering, there will be little fuel to power any rally. So the problem with this market is that it can’t seem to sell off enough to produce a sustainable rally. There are not enough bears or bulls. If the market went lower, we would see more of each.





Futures Test Friday Highs As Avalanche Of PMIs Begins With China Beat

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Good is ‘good’ it seems once again – though we do remember just a few short weeks ago when the world and his pet rabbit were hanging on every word from the Chinese leaders and their next epic embarkation on the stimulus highway. Not necessary now though; as HSBC’s China Manufacturing PMI confirms Friday’s NBS version that China is ‘expanding’ once again (though marginally). The highest print for the HSBC number in 14 months – makes perfect sense given the way the world is behaving with world trade collapsing and the mercantilist nation’s key customer (that would be the USA) seeing spending slowing. Nevertheless, it’s enough to run to late Friday highs in S&P 500 futures and flush out those nascent stops.  We just hope this ‘expansionary’ print is not a false hope as it was in October 2011… An evening full of PMIs has begun (see below)…

 

 

And S&P 500 futures knocked off that late-day spike high…

 

as EURUSD jerks back up to 6-week highs at 1.3047…

 

PMI Tracker – So Far 4 losers and 6 winners… (we will update as the evening progresses)

 

UPDATE: ES leaking back off highs…

 

Charts/Data: Bloomberg





Measuring the Performance of the Ivy Portfolio

Courtesy of Doug Short.

I’ve been posting a monthly moving average update for the five ETFs in featured in Mebane Faber and Eric Richardson’s Ivy Portfolio since the spring of 2009, when I featured my review of the book.

In addition to the these monthly updates, a couple of years ago I made a some generic studies of momentum investing with moving averages.

Learning from the S&P 500 Monthly MAs
Learning from the Nikkei Monthly MAs

Investing strategies are not the primary focus of my research, and I don’t personally track the performance of the Ivy Portfolio other than to highlight the monthly signals. For ETF performance tracking and backtesting, I use ETFReplay.com, an excellent website for analyzing the performance of individual ETFs and ETF portfolios based on customized moving-average strategies. There are many free tools on ETFReplay.com. However performance backtesting of portfolios does require a paid subscription.

The image below illustrates my research on the Ivy Portfolio since 2007. If you click the image, you’ll open a HUGE version that also shows the monthly performance over the complete range as compared to SPY (SPDR S&P 500 Index). For cash, I’ve used SHY (Barclays Low Duration Treasury (2-yr).

 

 

Now, the portfolio in this illustration doesn’t *exactly* match the Ivy five. I picked 2007 as my starting point to show the performance from before the market peak in the Fall of that year. Thus I was forced to make one substitution for the Ivy ETFs — EFA (iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund) in place of VEU (Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF), which was launched in early 2007 and didn’t produce a 10-month signal until December of that year. But the substitution presumably understates the all-Vanguard IVY portfolio: I make this assumption because VEU monthly has clearly outperformed EFA since March 2009 (99.8% versus 87.2%).

For anyone interested in researching momentum investing with ETFs, the ETFReplay.com website is an outstanding resource, one that I’m pleased to include in my dshort Favorites.


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Biotechs Galore – A Few For Consideration

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Biotech Corner: Monoclonal Antibody Companies (Part 1)

From The latest Market Shadows newsletter: A Failure to Communicate: Numbers, Rates & Lies

By Pharmboy

Biotech stocks are my passion. My alter-ego is a scientist, working in the field of biotech, and I love it.

The days of becoming the next Genentech or Amgen are over. Big Pharma will become the juggernauts that will sell and market the drugs, while smaller companies will fill the pipelines and keep the juggernauts running.  Premiums being paid to buy phase 1 compounds are increasing. Phase 1 includes all preclinical testing. The larger companies are paying 100M for phase 1 compounds, whereas it only takes about 25M to get to phase 1. (Phase 1 compounds are those that have completed very early trials, but for which there is no efficacy data yet.)

Typically, biotechs are more efficient than Big Pharma companies. The return on investments for biotech companies, if they are efficient and successful, is north of 300%. That is not a bad return….but biotechs are high risk and often have many failures that eat into those potential gains.

I am going to focus on a few companies that have a communal relationship to a technology – the monoclonal antibody (mAb) technology. Monoclonal antibody technology had its first success in 1986, when muromonab was approved for transplant rejection. mAb’s are specific to a particular target.  When a mAb binds to its target, it stimulates an immune response. The immune system then attacks the target and ‘kills’ the target.

Monoclonal Ab technology has exploded, with ‘tags’ now being attached to the mAb. Those tags can be radionucleotides, anti-neoplastic agents, other antibody-drug conjugates (ADC), and other proteins.  All of these tags are released when the mAb binds to its target, the conjugates then perform their actions. There is a very good review here.

 

 

There are several companies that have employed the technology of attaching a drug (ADC) to their specific mAb. One company that has both in-house and licensed-out technology is Seattle Genetics (SGEN, $25.31). SGEN is poised for growth – IF a few of its mAb’s prove to be effective in treading various blood cancers. The company licenses out its technology to Roche (Genentech), Celldex (CDLX), Progenics (PGNX), Abbott (ABT), Astellas and many other companies for various types of cancer.…
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The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since Their 2000 Highs

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Here is a update in response to a standing request from David England, a professor who has developed a popular college level stock market classes at John A. Logan College in Carterville, IL. In his presentations, he likes to disprove the standard message of Wall Street, “Don’t worry! The market will always come back.” I furnished David with some charts, and I now share them with regular visitors to my Advisor Perspectives pages.

Specifically, David had asked for real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq Composite. So I created two overlays — one with the nominal price, excluding dividends, and the other with the price adjusted for inflation based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (which I usually just refer to as the CPI). The charts below have been updated through Friday’s close.

 

 

 

 

The charts require little explanation. So far the 21st Century has not been especially kind to equity investors. Yes, markets usually do bounce back, but often in time frames that defy optimistic expectations. Investors in the Nikkei 225 have been waiting a long time for a return to the peak of 1989.

The charts above are based on price only. But what about dividends? Would the inclusion of dividends make a significant difference? I’ll close this post with a reprint of my latest chart update of the S&P 500 total return on a $1,000 investment at the 2000 high.

 

 

Total return, including reinvested dividends, certainly looks better, but the real (inflation-adjusted) purchasing power of that $1,000 investment remains negative.

 

 

 

 





Goldman’s Top Ten Market Themes For 2013

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Whether you trust the squid and their thought process or believe in ‘better the devil you know’, Goldman’s top thinkers – from Garzarelli to Himmelberg and from Stolper to Hatzius and Wilson – lay out the top ten global macro themes from their economic outlook that will dominate markets in 2013. Agree or disagree, one thing is for sure – these ten ‘themes’ will impact us all one way or another and for each theme, Goldman discusses the wider implications for markets, and the potential issues and options for investing around them. Aside from the ten key themes, they provide succinct macro outlooks for rates (steeper curves and seniorty shifts), FX (moderate USD weakness amid broad stability), equities (accelerating growth and risk reduction underpin a solid 2013), and credit (‘search for yield’ has less to find).

Strawman – or investing bible – there is a little here every bull, bear, and arbitrageur…

 

Goldman’s Top Ten Key Themes (and our annotated summary):

1. Global growth: A ‘hump’ to get over, then a clear road ahead – The biggest challenge from a markets perspective is that we see risks to growth concentrated early in the year, with Q1 likely to show a step-down in growth globally. Fiscal restraint plays a major role in that story: we expect a big increase early in 2013, but a significant fading on both sides of the Atlantic thereafter.

2. More unconventional easing in the G4 – The danger of positioning for a weaker JPY is that a convincing shift may require the BoJ to ‘out-ease’ a committed Fed, which we do not expect.

3. Termites eat away at the foundations of the ‘search for yield’ – Even though we expect the search for yield to continue, the risk-reward is falling.

4. Housing stabilisation and private-sector healing in the US – While we see continued healing in the household sector and ongoing gains in both housing starts (20% growth in 2013) and home prices (2%-3% growth in 2013), this may now already be priced in by markets.

5. Euro area a smaller driver of global risk, but still a source of tails – The best opportunities to take directional exposure to Europe have come either when the market believes that the system is close to collapse (as it did again in…
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U.S. Equities, ETFs Seek Higher Ground, Look For Santa Rally

Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

U.S. equities, ETFs seek higher ground as December starts and investors wonder if Santa will show up for the traditional year end “Santa Rally”

spy, dia, qqq, iwm s&P 500, etfsU.S. equities and ETFs were mostly flat on Friday as November drew to a close.

For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSEARCA:DIA) gained 0.1%, the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) added o.5% for the week and the Nasdaq 100 ETF (NYSEARCA:QQQ) added 1.4% from last Friday’s close.  The Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA:IWM) also put in a good week with a gain of 2.1%.

For November, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSEARCA:DIA) declined 0.5%, the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) gained 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite (NYSEARCA:QQQ) added 1.1%.

 

 

On My ETF Radar

s&p 500, spy, nysearca:spy, etfs, s&p 500 etf

chart courtesy of StockCharts.com

In the chart of the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) above, we can see how the index has reclaimed its 200 day moving average and broken through resistance at the 1400 level which has been a major battleground for the last few weeks.  Next major resistance levels are at the blue 50 day moving average and recent highs between 1430-1460, with the upper band just 3% from today’s levels.

The S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) will have to break through these levels to reestablish its uptrend, however, the index has already reclaimed most of the ground lost since the beginning of the correction in early October.

As we enter December, the topic of the seasonal “Santa Rally” comes into view and the fiscal cliff could put Santa in jeopardy this year which could be bad news for stocks and ETFs because as famed investor Yale Hirsch said, “if Santa fails to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.” Read Santa Claus Jeopardy!

ETF News You Can Really Use

The fiscal cliff continues making daily headlines and we can expect more volatility and jousting around that subject during the upcoming week.  It was the  major topic of discussion on the Sunday talk shows as Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said tax increases for the top 2% of Americans were mandatory for a deal on the fiscal cliff.

Geithner said Republicans in Congress will be responsible for hurting the economy if they refuse to raise tax rates on the highest-income earners as part of a deal.  He challenged…
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Weight Inflation: A Rising Tide Of Fat Lifts All Scales

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Remember when after the Fukushima explosion, in order to avoid panic Japan doubled the maximum dose of “safe” daily radiation allowed, and then raised it some more? This is kinda like that, but instead of Gamma rays you have Twinkies..





 
 
 

ValueWalk

#1 Performing Global Macro Hedge Fund Sees More Shorts Opportunities Ahead As China Bursts

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Crescat Global Macro Fund update to investors on 1/19/2019

Crescat Global Macro Fund and Crescat Long/Short fund delivered strong returns for both December and full year 2018 in a difficult market. Based on ...



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Zero Hedge

Johns Hopkins, Bristol-Myers Face $1 Billion Suit For Infecting Guatemalan Hookers With Syphilis 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A federal judge in Maryland said Johns Hopkins University, pharmaceutical company Bristol-Myers Squibb and the Rockefeller Foundation must face a $1 billion lawsuit over their roles in a top-secret program in the 1940s ran by the US government that injected hundreds of Guatemalans with syphilis, reported Reuters.

Several doctors from Hopkins an...



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Phil's Favorites

Divisive economics

 

Guest author David Brin — scientist, technology consultant, best-selling author and futurist — explores the records of Democrats and Republicans on the US economy in the following post. For David's latest posts, visit the CONTRARY BRIN blog. For his books and short stories, visit his web...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stock declines did not break 9-year support, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We often hear “Stocks take an escalator up and an elevator down!” No doubt stocks did experience a swift decline from the September highs to the Christmas eve lows. Looks like the “elevator” part of the phrase came true as 2018 was coming to an end.

The first part of the “stocks take an escalator up” seems to still be in play as well despite the swift decline of late.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- All of these indices hit long-term rising support on Christmas Eve at each (1), where support held and rallies have followed.

If you find long-term perspectives helpf...



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Digital Currencies

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

 

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

Blockchain technologies can empower people by allowing them more control over their user data. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ajay Kumar Shrestha, University of Saskatchewan

Blockchain has already proven its huge influence on the financial world with its first application in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It might not be long before its impact is felt everywhere.

Blockchain is a secure chain of digital records that exist on multiple computers simultaneously so no record can be erased or falsified. The...



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Insider Scoop

Cars.com Explores Strategic Alternatives, Analyst Sees Possible Sale Price Around $30 Per Share

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related 44 Biggest Movers From Yesterday 38 Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Mid-Day Session ...

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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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