Archive for 2012

Gallup Poll Visualizes Effect of Obamacare

Courtesy of Mish.

Gallup’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is 8.3% for November, up nearly one percentage-point over October’s rate. Gallup’s underemployment jumped from 15.9% to 17.2%.

The Gallup survey, which polls approximately 30,000 people monthly, was radically different from the BLS report  that came out a day later.

Please consider the Gallup economic report U.S. Unadjusted Unemployment Shoots Back Up.

U.S. unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, was 7.8% for the month of November, up significantly from 7.0% for October. Gallup’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is 8.3%, nearly a one-point increase over October’s rate.

Underemployment, as measured without seasonal adjustment, was 17.2% in November, a 1.3-point increase since the end of October. The uptick in November also puts an end to the six-month trend of improvements or no change. Still, underemployment has improved 0.9 points since November 2011.

Gallup’s U.S. underemployment measure combines the percentage who are unemployed with the percentage of those working part time but looking for full-time work. Gallup does not apply a seasonal adjustment to underemployment.

The increase in underemployment is the result of an increase in the number of people unemployed as well as the number of people working part time but wanting full time work, which rose to 9.4% in November from 8.9% in October. The number of workers wanting full-time positions generally increases during the holiday season as more people take on part-time seasonal work. Compared with this time last year, the percentage of workers desiring additional work is down a modest three-tenths of a point.

Obamacare Responsible?

Gallup did not offer reasons for this shift but I suspect two.

  1. Large numbers of part-time workers were hired as a direct result of Obamacare in September and October.
  2. Additional seasonal workers were hired early.

For more on Obamacare and the effect on jobs, please see…



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Gauging Investor Sentiment with Twitter: New Update

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.


The Downside Hedge Twitter Sentiment indicator for the S&P 500 index (SPX) continues to confirm the rally out of the November lows. Tuesday’s break above 1425 brought with it a lot of tweets from traders going long with the belief that the market should go higher. However, Thursday and Friday’s readings give us our first warning that prices may consolidate further as the daily indicator has broken its recent uptrend line. It is currently following price which tells us that market participants are chasing the market rather than buying or selling based on their own projections. A large number of negative tweets mentioned the weakness in Apple (AAPL) and the ramifications to the major indexes if AAPL continues to fall. Many investors don’t believe SPX can hold up if AAPL breaks below the 500 level.

The smoothed sentiment indicator is still reading above zero and is sitting right on its up trend line. This reflects the belief by market participants that the current rally can continue. However, it leaves us in a position where we need to see how it reacts to either a dip to the 1400 level or a run back up to the recent highs. We’ll be looking for confirmation or a divergence from any move for clarity.

Twitter support and resistance levels moved up last week as market participants started tweeting about prices above the market. This adds further evidence that they are optimistic going forward. 1460 on SPX was the most likely level targeted in tweets and we even got a few for 1500 again. We consider 1435 as minor resistance with 1460 and 1500 as major resistance.

Below the market, 1398 and 1400 were about the only levels mentioned. Those levels were tweeted often as a place traders would buy. This is creating a very strong and critical support level. We didn’t get enough tweets at the 200 day moving average near 1385 to even register on our charts so we can’t consider it anything but minor support. This is a bit disconcerting because that leaves a lot of white space below 1400. If the 1400 level breaks it will most likely bring very harsh selling as it catches people on the wrong…
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Foodstamps Soar by Most in 16 Months: Over 1 Million Americans Enter Poverty in Last 2 Months

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

And we thought last month's delayed foodstamp data was bad. The just reported foodstamp number for September was a doozy, with 607,544 new Americans becoming eligible for foodstamps, as a record 47.7 million Americans are now living in poverty at least according to the USDA. The monthly increase was the highest since May 2011, and with August's 421K new impoverished America, over 1 million Americans made the EBT card their new best friend. It is unclear just which atmospheric phenomenon will get the blame for this unprecedented surge in poverty, which comes at a time when the pre-election economic data euphoria was adamant that the US economy was on an escape velocity to utopia. Instead what we do know is that in August and September, over three times as many foodstamp recipients were add to the economy as jobs (324,000). We also know that with the imminent impact of Sandy, which will send foodstamp recipients soaring, it is now looking quite possible that the US may end 2012 with just over a mindboggling 50 million Americans living in absolute poverty and collecting the $134.29 average monthly benefit per person, instead of working. Welcome to the recovery indeed.

Individual Americans on foodstamps:

Foodstamps at the household level rose to a record 24 million:

Aggregating foodstamp, disability and nonfarm payrolls data shows that since the start of the Depression in December 2007, 21.8 million Americans have shifted more or less permanently to the entitlement line, even as the US still has to generate 4.4 million jobs just to break even.

And the same shown on a monthly basis:

Source: SNAP





Swing trading portfolio – week of December 10th, 2012

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

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One trade virtual portfolio

 





Guest Post: Nearing The End of Serfdom’s Road

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by James E. Miller of the Ludwig von Mises Institute of Canada

Nearing The End of Serfdom’s Road

In France, Minister for Energy and Environment Delphine Batho recently proposed a light curfew to pertain to “in and outside shops, offices, and public buildings” between 1 a.m. and 7 a.m. beginning next July. Some merchants are up in arms as the rule adds to existing bans such as the forced closing of stores on Sunday and night shopping in general. If enacted, the illumination ban will quickly disperse Paris’s reputation as the “City of Light.”

France’s Commercial Council is criticizing the decision as being anti-business and economically damaging. However, the fact that these assumed defenders of free enterprise are surprised at such a proposal is the real puzzle. In a country run by a government that is happily bloodletting the productive capacity of the people through a hike on the income tax and a tax on financial transactions, this latest nanny-state resolve should be fully expected. It is not a power grab but a mere reassertion of the authority the central state has over the private affairs of society.

The “lights out” edict is just another piece of evidence of a disturbing truth: the road to serfdom is not ahead of the West; we have already reached its end.

Such a statement may be objected to as private property and a certain degree of freedom still exist in the West.  But this is these just a mirage. The property tax effectively nullifies the notion of private property. In many places, police brutes allow themselves into your home and on your land with little recourse possible. Billions of electronic correspondences are collected daily by the Federal Bureau of Investigation of the United States. In 1961, the United Nations released the Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs which has since served as a framework for drug prohibition in all major countries.

As William Grigg points out,

Drug prohibition is a subset of slavery – in both its philosophical premise (the denial of individual self-ownership) and its role in creating a huge and growing population of people in chains.

Ownership of one’s body and those resources to which it appropriates itself is…
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Investor Sentiment: More Issues

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by thetechnicaltake.

Add extreme selling by corporate insiders to last week’s list of worries. This “smart money” is selling to a degree last seen February 18, 2011. Following this signal, the SP500 spent the next 6 months going sideways before falling 18% over a 4 week period in August. Of course, the market was “saved” by Operation Twist. Last week’s issues included: 1) only modest extremes in investor sentiment at the recent bottom; 2) lack of consensus amongst the various sentiment data; 3) the lack of both bulls and bears in this market; in essence and by our measures, investors are just moving to the sidelines. The problem with this market is that it can’t seem to sell off enough to produce a sustainable rally.





Preview Of The Key Events In The Coming Week

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The upcoming week is comparatively less loaded with policy events, though the ongoing fiscal cliff negotiations in the US remain one of the key developments to follow. Important is also the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, where Goldman and everyone else now expect the Fed to increase their monthly asset purchase target under the QE3 program to $85bn per month, up from $45bn per month; this will keep the pace of asset purchases constant after the Operation Twist expires at the end of December, as Zero Hedge predicted the day QE3 was announced. There are is a handful of other central bank meetings in emerging economies (Russia, Indonesia, South-Korea, Philippines, Chile) although consensus expects no change to the base-rate in most cases. On the data front industrial production numbers for October will be released around the world including in the Euro-area, US and China. We also get the US retail sales number and December flash PMIs for the Euro-area and China.

The Week Ahead

Monday December 10

  • Russia MPC: We and consensus expect the overnight auction-based repo to remain unchanged at 5.50% from November.
  • Also Interesting: Japan GDP, Turkey GDP, Sweden IP, France & Italy IP, Italy & Spain GDP, Czech CPI, Norway CPI, China Trade Balance, Israel MPC Minutes.

Tuesday December 11

  • US Trade Balance (October): Consensus expects -42.5bn for October, a slight worsening from -41.5bn in September.
  • Indonesia MPC: Consensus expects no change to the reference rate currently at 5.25%
  • Also Interesting: Turkey CA, Hungary CPI, Japan Machinery Orders.

Wednesday December 12

  • UK ILO Unemployment Rate (October): Consensus expects 7.9% up from 7.8% in September
  • US FOMC Meeting: We expect that the FOMC will increase the monthly QE purchases to $85bn per month from $40bn per month to keep pace with the purchases under the Operation Twist program which expires at the end of December.
  • Also Interesting: India IP, Germany HCPI, Euro Area IP, UK employment growth, Israel trade balance, Russia trade balance, Mexico IP, Brazil monthly GDP.

Thursday December 13

  • South Korea MPC: Consensus expects no change to the 7-day repo rate currently at 2.75%.
  • Philippines MPC: Consensus expects no change to the overnight borrowing rate currently at 3.5%.
  • US Retail Sales (November): We expect 0.6%mom, Consensus expects 0.5%mom, up from -0.3%mom in October
  • BOJ


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The Collective Conscious Crack Up Boom……Evil Plan 101.0

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tim Knight from Slope of Hope.

231

From Slope of HopeWell, my fellow Slope-a-Dopes, although this will undoubtedly be a dreadful decidedly devastating disappointment to many of you, I have chosen to put away my almighty artistically asinine alliteration pen for this Sunday's super significant spectacularly special EP.  Instead of dazzling you with my proficient pathetically putrid pitiful prose, I will focus my alertly astute attention on a stupefyingly serious subject.

Ludwig Von Mises' Crack Up Boom

For those of you not familiar with the term Crack Up Boom, John Nyaradi sums it up nicely:?

"In his writings, Ludwig argued in favor of free markets, capitalism and individual freedom and warned against the dangers of credit expansion, hyperinflation and governments using monetary policy to create artificial economic prosperity.

He argued that inevitably such actions would lead to inflation and then hyperinflation and finally to a place known as the “crack up boom” where everyone realizes that inflation is out of control and wants to get rid of paper money and get “real” things, no matter how much it costs to do that. In its most extreme incarnation, nobody wants paper money for anything and then the financial system collapses."

You may have noticed that I bolded the last line in the first paragraph above.  The reason for this should be quite clear, as it precisely describes exactly where we are in the U.S. economy today. There can be absolutely no doubt, that the men currently conducting our Nation's fiscal & monetary train wreck, have entirely embraced the concept of monetary expansion, as the categorically correct antidote for our economic malaise.  Be it via the continued increase in spending initiatives funded by further untenable public treasury debt burdens, or the outright multiplication of the money supply, our financial authorities have chosen to press on regardless, undaunted by the near total abrogation of any modicum of monetary or fiscal jurisprudence.  

This from the departed Ludwig Von Mises in his own words:

"This first stage of the inflationary process may last for many years. While it lasts, the prices of many goods and services are not yet adjusted to the altered money relation. There are still people in the country who have not yet become aware of the fact that


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Weekly Market Commentary: Positive Action on Low Key Week

Courtesy of Declan Fallon

Calm before the storm? It was a relatively quiet week for markets.  Daily charts tested key support levels of 200-day and 50-day MAs, while the point shift in these markets was relatively minor.  Weekly market breadth was also relatively unaffected.

The Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA had one of the smallest changes for 2012. It’s also in neutral territory, but rising, in line with a seasonal ‘Santa Rally’

The Nasdaq is caught in a bit of trading range, with 3,100-3,196 likely to play as supply in the latter part of December. The light breadth action reflecting this indecision.

Small Caps remain the index of choice. The ‘bear trap’ is playing nicely for bulls.  A break above 868 would be very positive for the index, and it could be a big performer in 2013.

The S&P is also coming off a ‘bear trap’, but it looks like there is a bit more potential in Small Caps to maximize its benefit. However, the S&P should see 1,474 broken as part of the Santa Rally and typical reaction to a ‘bear trap’

Despite the quiet week, bulls can be pleased with how things finished last week, and can be optimistic for the coming week. Stops can go on a loss of ‘bear trap’ lows.

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Zero Hedge

Johns Hopkins, Bristol-Myers Face $1 Billion Suit For Infecting Guatemalan Hookers With Syphilis 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A federal judge in Maryland said Johns Hopkins University, pharmaceutical company Bristol-Myers Squibb and the Rockefeller Foundation must face a $1 billion lawsuit over their roles in a top-secret program in the 1940s ran by the US government that injected hundreds of Guatemalans with syphilis, reported Reuters.

Several doctors from Hopkins an...



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Phil's Favorites

This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen"

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018.

By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS, although on many months the (balance sheet) B/S does not actually shrink by this full amount which depends on the redemption schedule) and by end-Q4 markets also experienced some of the largest volatility and drawdowns in nearly a decade.

As Nomura&...



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ValueWalk

The Competition For Capital Has Made Stocks Cheap

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The new year is upon us, and now is the time many investors look at what 2018 was and prepare for what 2019 might be. Recession jitters are starting to pick back up again, especially now that the full picture of 2018 is in the books. But what if you could pick only one theme for 2018? Jefferies strategist Sean Darby and team have a suggestion which is especially timely given that it appears to mark the end of an era.

StockSnap / PixabayVolatility carries into the new year

This past year was one of extremes, and the markets ended i...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stock declines did not break 9-year support, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We often hear “Stocks take an escalator up and an elevator down!” No doubt stocks did experience a swift decline from the September highs to the Christmas eve lows. Looks like the “elevator” part of the phrase came true as 2018 was coming to an end.

The first part of the “stocks take an escalator up” seems to still be in play as well despite the swift decline of late.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- All of these indices hit long-term rising support on Christmas Eve at each (1), where support held and rallies have followed.

If you find long-term perspectives helpf...



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Digital Currencies

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

 

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

Blockchain technologies can empower people by allowing them more control over their user data. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ajay Kumar Shrestha, University of Saskatchewan

Blockchain has already proven its huge influence on the financial world with its first application in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It might not be long before its impact is felt everywhere.

Blockchain is a secure chain of digital records that exist on multiple computers simultaneously so no record can be erased or falsified. The...



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Insider Scoop

Cars.com Explores Strategic Alternatives, Analyst Sees Possible Sale Price Around $30 Per Share

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related 44 Biggest Movers From Yesterday 38 Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Mid-Day Session ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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