Archive for 2012

Congrats NY Giants

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

A fun game for the impartial viewer.  I know a lot of readers are from NYC (adopted or otherwise) so congrats.


Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio. Securities mentioned may or may not be held by the author in the mutual fund he manages, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX). For a list of the aforementioned fund’s holdings at the end of the prior quarter, visit the Paladin Funds website at http://www.paladinfunds.com/holdings/blog





MaDoNNa BoWL 2012

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by williambanzai7.

LADY HALFTIME





Q&A with Alan Boyce: Freddie Mac and Inverse Floaters

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by rcwhalen.

Further to my earlier post, Freddie Mac Mortgage Predator | Alan Boyce on Inverse Floaters <http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/freddie-mac-mortgage-predator-alan-…, below is a Q&A prepared by Alan Boyce, CEO of The Absalon Project, on the uproar regarding the way that Freddie Mac manages its portfolio.

Absalon is a joint venture between George Soros and the Danish financial system.  Previously, Mr. Boyce was the senior managing director for investment strategy at Countrywide Financial Corporation, where he was responsible for secondary markets, the hedging of mortgage servicing rights, and the balance sheet for Countrywide Bank and Balboa Insurance.  — Chris

Q&A with Alan Boyce: Freddie Mac and Inverse Floaters

1.           Isn’t it meaningless to look at the inverse floaters in isolation? To assess risk, shouldn’t we look at the entire portfolio held by Freddie Mac?

Analyzing Freddie Mac’s portfolio as whole would be the best way to measure its risk, but the enterprise has never disclosed the securities that it is holding, nor has it announced any intentions to change this practice. Without full information, analysts can only look at what Freddie Mac is forced to disclose, which is precisely what led to the discovery of these highly levered inverse floaters. To truly evaluate the risk of the firm, analysts would need to understand the composition of the entire portfolio, the hedges and liability structure. However, until this occurs, commentators must use the information that is available.

The US mortgage market represents $10 trillion, with the vast amount of outstanding loans being callable, 30 year, fixed rate notes. Most of these loans are securitized into Agency MBS. Thus we have a very large bond market that is exposed to long-term interest rate risk and prepayment risk. As a holder of $650 billion of mortgage loans and MBS (both straight pass-throughs and structured REMIC parts), Freddie Mac is heavily exposed to long-term interest rate and prepayment risk. While hedging interest rate risk is possible through the mortgage market, there is insufficient market depth for Freddie Mac or any other large market participant to hedge its exposure to prepayment risk. Over the last two decades, hedges have been done in the US Treasury and Dollar interest rate swap markets, which are just large enough to help.

In at least 29 separate transactions over a 6-month period, Freddie Mac provided the…
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Things That Make You Go Hmmm – Such As The Global Central Planning Groundhog Day

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Grant Williams submits his latest weekly thoughts on the big picture.

February 2012 finds the world in its own timeloop as we remain trapped in our very own Groundhog Day watching politicians try endless new and inventive ways to ‘fix’ a simple problem of way, WAY too much debt. It isn’t complicated. The world grew fat and happy on the sugar rush provided by a decades-long injection of cheap and easy credit and now it’s time for the crash diet. Trying to avoid the ‘crash’ seems to be uppermost in everybody’s mind.

Since 2008 and the bursting of the great credit bubble, central banks have been printing money hand over fist in a desperate attempt to generate the inflation they feel is necessary to drag the world out of a perceived deflationary spiral. The chart (left) shows the growth in ‘assets’ of G-3 Central Banks over the last 17 months alone, during which time, they have increased by 32%.

To date, the level of the various benchmark CPI indicators would suggest there have been no deleterious effects, but just because the results aren’t showing up where those in charge of measuring them are LOOKING, doesn’t  mean they aren’t showing up at all.

Look at food prices across Asia. Look at housing prices in Hong Kong. Look at fuel prices in Nigeria. Look at heating costs in the UK.

Look at gold.

Targeting inflation is a dangerous game to play because – well, because it is impossible. You cannot target ‘inflation’ per se, only a specific measure of a specific collection of items, and the wider that collection of items is, the harder you make it for yourself. But despite what seems fairly obvious to many – namely that ‘inflation’ cannot be finely controlled by setting interest rates (though, if caught in time and tackled aggressively enough it can sometimes betamed as Paul Volcker demonstrated), the minds in charge of setting policy have a peculiar attitude towards something that is so imprecise and so multi-faceted. The general level of certainty surrounding interest rate policy, quantitative easing and inflation amongst Central Bankers is a constant source of amazement to me.

The playbook for the game we are playing now was drawn up a long time ago and we can’t say we weren’t shown…
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Hedge Funds Start 2012 At A Blistering Pace

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Not too surprisingly, following an atrocious year for hedge funds in 2011, 2012 has opened with a bang, as virtually all of the brand name funds are green for the year, while the best performers are all the European focused funds which last year crashed and burned. Call it sector rotation into the most hated names (something we took advantage of two weeks ago with our bizarro market strategies), or just call it a dead cat bounce, one can see why nobody wants the party to end: just a few more months like January, and everyone will be above the high water mark, valuations be damned.

Best and worst Hedge Funds of 2012:

Select hedge fund performance:

And complete HSBC breakdown:

HedgeWeekly2012_No05






Weekly Market Commentary: Breakout in Nasdaq

Courtesy of Declan Fallon

A good week for the indices and the Nasdaq in particular.

The Nasdaq pushed to a new multi-year high on higher volume accumulation. It has the look of a solid breakout which can probably withstand a few weeks of weakness before pushing on. Assuming a period of consolidation follows it will be important for 2,700 to hold.

Nasdaq Breadth continued to improve. The Percentage of Nasdaq stocks above the 50-day MA cleared a set of reaction highs dating back to the latter part of 2009, leaving the single swing high created from the rally off the March 2009 low at 83% as the last area of resistance. This strength may offer enough the groundwork for a 1 year+ rally.

The Nasdaq Bullish Percents have plenty of room to maneuver before turning overbought; another reason to suggest there is more to come.

There was another powerful push in the Summation Index, the fourth big move in a row – impressive stuff and one which suggests a slowing of this rally is another few weeks away.

The Russell 2000 had a good week, pushing inside the prior head-and-shoulder consolidation, but there is still room to run resistance and new highs.

The S&P has to clear 2011 highs before it can challenge the 2008 high. It did manage to finish the week higher, but not with confirmed accumulation.

The Nasdaq remains the index of choice for bulls. A period of weakness will offer sideline monies a chance to partake, but it will be important for 2,700 support to hold on the weekly timeframe.  The Russell 2000 and S&P should come along for the ride, but are likely to lag action in Tech indices.

——

Follow Me on Twitter



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Larry Summers on Labor Participation Rate

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Bruce Krasting.

Larry Summers Blows It on TV 

Courtesy of Bruce Krasting

The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is a key economic statistic today. Changes in the LFPR are shaping the direction of the capital markets, federal economic policy, monetary policy and, most importantly, politics.

The LFPR hit a new record low on Friday. The key question that must be answered is:

Is the current LFPR a temporary phenomenon, or is this the “New Normal?”

If the current LFPR is, in fact, the new normal (I think it is), it has profound implications on the macro economic outlook for the USA. Virtually all of the economic models used by CBO, OMB, SSA and private economists are assuming that the long-term LFPR will be in the mid-to upper 60s. The consensus is 2-3% higher than where it is today. 

If you plug in a rate of 63% versus 67% over the next ten-years, it makes a huge difference on the size of the deficit and the public debt. It would cause the deficits at Social Security and Medicare to explode. The percentage of GDP attributable to the government would inevitably rise. The economy, and society in general, would be socialized. 

I don’t think there is a macro economist or economic policy deep-thinker out there that does not recognize the significance of the LFPR, or that it’s hitting new lows.

Let me confirm the data. This from the BLS. Note that January’s reading fell 0.3% to a multi-decade low:

.
This chart is also from the BLS. The trend is obvious:
.
.
I think most of the Biz press had the story right. The drop in the LFPR was highlighted (accurately) by many:
.

.

Okay, I hope I’ve convinced you of two things. 1) The LFPR is a very important statistic, and 2) The BLS reported on Friday that the LFPR had fallen to a new record low in January.

Now listen to what Larry Summers had to say about the LFPR this morning on ABC’s This Week show. (This is a painless, no commercial, 90 second video.)

 

 

Larry Summers is a possible candidate as the next Treasury Secretary. He has all


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Larry Summers Blows It on TV

Larry Summers Blows It on TV 

Courtesy of Bruce Krasting

The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is a key economic statistic today. Changes in the LFPR are shaping the direction of the capital markets, federal economic policy, monetary policy and, most importantly, politics.

The LFPR hit a new record low on Friday. The key question that must be answered is:

Is the current LFPR a temporary phenomenon, or is this the “New Normal?”

If the current LFPR is, in fact, the new normal (I think it is), it has profound implications on the macro economic outlook for the USA. Virtually all of the economic models used by CBO, OMB, SSA and private economists are assuming that the long-term LFPR will be in the mid-to upper 60s. The consensus is 2-3% higher than where it is today. 

If you plug in a rate of 63% versus 67% over the next ten-years, it makes a huge difference on the size of the deficit and the public debt. It would cause the deficits at Social Security and Medicare to explode. The percentage of GDP attributable to the government would inevitably rise. The economy, and society in general, would be socialized. 

I don’t think there is a macro economist or economic policy deep-thinker out there that does not recognize the significance of the LFPR, or that it’s hitting new lows.

Let me confirm the data. This from the BLS, Note that January's reading  fell 0.3% to a multi-decade low:

This chart is also from the BLS. The trend is obvious:

I think most of the Biz press had the story right. The drop in the LFPR was highlighted (accurately) by many:

Okay, I hope I’ve convinced you of two things. 1) The LFPR is a very important statistic, and 2) The BLS reported on Friday that the LFPR had fallen to a new record low in January.

Now listen to what Larry Summers had to say about the LFPR this morning on ABC’s This Week show. (This is a painless, no commercial, 90 second video.)

Larry Summers is a possible candidate as the next Treasury Secretary.  He has all the credentials. He knows where the bathroom is; he’s had the job before. But he blew it on the issue of what happened to


continue reading





6 Hour Greek Meeting Ends With No Agreement, Troika Demands Answer By 11am Tomorrow, EURUSD Drifts Lower

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The Greek endgame appears to be approaching… or not. After a “marathon” (in Greek terms) session between the Greek coalition cabinet members ended with no definitive agreement, and in fact LAOS president said that more austerity would “contribute to a recession that the country can not afford, and a revolution of misery which will then burn down Europe“, while New Democracy’s Samaras stated he would “not permit any more austerity”, even as Papademos on the other line apparently said that the leaders have agreed on 2012 spending cuts of 1.5% of GDP, the Troika seems to have had enough of being Greek’d around, and demands an answer by 11 am tomorrow. Supposedly, “or else” no more cash. Then again, we have heard all of this before. In fact, the Troika talks are continuing right now as European representatives entered the Greek PM office, following a late night meeting with the IIF. That said, the market is once again quite nonchalant about all of this, with the EURUSD trading down a modest 50 pips to 1.3107 having touched just under 1.3080 earlier. Bottom line: it is likely that nothing will happen tonight.

The following statement was released from the PM office:

PRESS OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER
Athens, 5 February 2012

 

The Prime Minister and the leaders of the three political parties supporting the government met in order to jointly decide on the main elements of the agreement with the troika regarding Greece’s new economic program in the framework of the new loan agreement.

 

The Prime Minister and the political leaders agreed on main issues, including:

 

1) The adoption of measures, in 2012, aiming to reduce public spending by 1.5% of GDP.

 

2) Safeguarding the viability of auxiliary pension funds.

 

3) Addressing the competitiveness deficit by taking measures including the reduction of wage and non-wage labor costs, aimed to support employment and promote economic activity.

 

4) The recapitalization of banks through a combination of measures that safeguard public interest and ensure the banks’ managerial autonomy.

 

The Prime Minister and the political party leaders will meet again tomorrow to conclude their talks on the content of the program.

More from Kathimerini:

“The prime minister and political leaders of three parties supporting the government met to take


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Zero Hedge

Auto Shares Surge As Fiat, Renault Confirm Merger Talks

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

With President Trump in Japan for a state visit and most of Europe headed to the polls to vote in the quinquennial EU Parliamentary elections, there was enough news to keep market watchers occupied during what was supposed to be a quiet holiday weekend in the US. 

But on top of these political headlines, on Saturday afternoon, the news broke that Italian-American carmaker Fiat Chrysler had approached France's Renault with a merger proposal that would leave the shareholders of each carmaker with half of the combined company, in a tie-up that would create the world's third-largest au...



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Phil's Favorites

Trump and the problem with pardons

 

Trump and the problem with pardons

Courtesy of Andrew Bell, Indiana University

As a veteran, I was astonished by the recent news that President Trump may be considering pardons for U.S. military members accused or convicted of war crimes. But as a scholar who studies the U.S. military and combat ethics, I understand even more clearly the harmful long-term impact such pardons can have on the military.

My researc...



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Insider Scoop

Jefferies Sees 60-Percent Upside In Aphria Shares, Says Buy The Dip

Courtesy of Benzinga.

After a red-hot start to 2019, Canadian cannabis producer Aphria Inc (NYSE: APHA) has run out of steam, tumbling more than 31 percent in the past three months.

Despite the recent weakness, one Wall Street analyst said Friday that the stock has 30-percent upside potential. 

The Analyst

Jefferies analyst ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...



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Chart School

Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!


Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

This is a classic! ha!







Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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