Archive for 2012

Congrats NY Giants

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

A fun game for the impartial viewer.  I know a lot of readers are from NYC (adopted or otherwise) so congrats.


Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio. Securities mentioned may or may not be held by the author in the mutual fund he manages, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX). For a list of the aforementioned fund’s holdings at the end of the prior quarter, visit the Paladin Funds website at http://www.paladinfunds.com/holdings/blog





MaDoNNa BoWL 2012

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by williambanzai7.

LADY HALFTIME





Q&A with Alan Boyce: Freddie Mac and Inverse Floaters

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by rcwhalen.

Further to my earlier post, Freddie Mac Mortgage Predator | Alan Boyce on Inverse Floaters <http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/freddie-mac-mortgage-predator-alan-…, below is a Q&A prepared by Alan Boyce, CEO of The Absalon Project, on the uproar regarding the way that Freddie Mac manages its portfolio.

Absalon is a joint venture between George Soros and the Danish financial system.  Previously, Mr. Boyce was the senior managing director for investment strategy at Countrywide Financial Corporation, where he was responsible for secondary markets, the hedging of mortgage servicing rights, and the balance sheet for Countrywide Bank and Balboa Insurance.  — Chris

Q&A with Alan Boyce: Freddie Mac and Inverse Floaters

1.           Isn’t it meaningless to look at the inverse floaters in isolation? To assess risk, shouldn’t we look at the entire portfolio held by Freddie Mac?

Analyzing Freddie Mac’s portfolio as whole would be the best way to measure its risk, but the enterprise has never disclosed the securities that it is holding, nor has it announced any intentions to change this practice. Without full information, analysts can only look at what Freddie Mac is forced to disclose, which is precisely what led to the discovery of these highly levered inverse floaters. To truly evaluate the risk of the firm, analysts would need to understand the composition of the entire portfolio, the hedges and liability structure. However, until this occurs, commentators must use the information that is available.

The US mortgage market represents $10 trillion, with the vast amount of outstanding loans being callable, 30 year, fixed rate notes. Most of these loans are securitized into Agency MBS. Thus we have a very large bond market that is exposed to long-term interest rate risk and prepayment risk. As a holder of $650 billion of mortgage loans and MBS (both straight pass-throughs and structured REMIC parts), Freddie Mac is heavily exposed to long-term interest rate and prepayment risk. While hedging interest rate risk is possible through the mortgage market, there is insufficient market depth for Freddie Mac or any other large market participant to hedge its exposure to prepayment risk. Over the last two decades, hedges have been done in the US Treasury and Dollar interest rate swap markets, which are just large enough to help.

In at least 29 separate transactions over a 6-month period, Freddie Mac provided the…
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Things That Make You Go Hmmm – Such As The Global Central Planning Groundhog Day

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Grant Williams submits his latest weekly thoughts on the big picture.

February 2012 finds the world in its own timeloop as we remain trapped in our very own Groundhog Day watching politicians try endless new and inventive ways to ‘fix’ a simple problem of way, WAY too much debt. It isn’t complicated. The world grew fat and happy on the sugar rush provided by a decades-long injection of cheap and easy credit and now it’s time for the crash diet. Trying to avoid the ‘crash’ seems to be uppermost in everybody’s mind.

Since 2008 and the bursting of the great credit bubble, central banks have been printing money hand over fist in a desperate attempt to generate the inflation they feel is necessary to drag the world out of a perceived deflationary spiral. The chart (left) shows the growth in ‘assets’ of G-3 Central Banks over the last 17 months alone, during which time, they have increased by 32%.

To date, the level of the various benchmark CPI indicators would suggest there have been no deleterious effects, but just because the results aren’t showing up where those in charge of measuring them are LOOKING, doesn’t  mean they aren’t showing up at all.

Look at food prices across Asia. Look at housing prices in Hong Kong. Look at fuel prices in Nigeria. Look at heating costs in the UK.

Look at gold.

Targeting inflation is a dangerous game to play because – well, because it is impossible. You cannot target ‘inflation’ per se, only a specific measure of a specific collection of items, and the wider that collection of items is, the harder you make it for yourself. But despite what seems fairly obvious to many – namely that ‘inflation’ cannot be finely controlled by setting interest rates (though, if caught in time and tackled aggressively enough it can sometimes betamed as Paul Volcker demonstrated), the minds in charge of setting policy have a peculiar attitude towards something that is so imprecise and so multi-faceted. The general level of certainty surrounding interest rate policy, quantitative easing and inflation amongst Central Bankers is a constant source of amazement to me.

The playbook for the game we are playing now was drawn up a long time ago and we can’t say we weren’t shown…
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Hedge Funds Start 2012 At A Blistering Pace

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Not too surprisingly, following an atrocious year for hedge funds in 2011, 2012 has opened with a bang, as virtually all of the brand name funds are green for the year, while the best performers are all the European focused funds which last year crashed and burned. Call it sector rotation into the most hated names (something we took advantage of two weeks ago with our bizarro market strategies), or just call it a dead cat bounce, one can see why nobody wants the party to end: just a few more months like January, and everyone will be above the high water mark, valuations be damned.

Best and worst Hedge Funds of 2012:

Select hedge fund performance:

And complete HSBC breakdown:

HedgeWeekly2012_No05






Weekly Market Commentary: Breakout in Nasdaq

Courtesy of Declan Fallon

A good week for the indices and the Nasdaq in particular.

The Nasdaq pushed to a new multi-year high on higher volume accumulation. It has the look of a solid breakout which can probably withstand a few weeks of weakness before pushing on. Assuming a period of consolidation follows it will be important for 2,700 to hold.

Nasdaq Breadth continued to improve. The Percentage of Nasdaq stocks above the 50-day MA cleared a set of reaction highs dating back to the latter part of 2009, leaving the single swing high created from the rally off the March 2009 low at 83% as the last area of resistance. This strength may offer enough the groundwork for a 1 year+ rally.

The Nasdaq Bullish Percents have plenty of room to maneuver before turning overbought; another reason to suggest there is more to come.

There was another powerful push in the Summation Index, the fourth big move in a row – impressive stuff and one which suggests a slowing of this rally is another few weeks away.

The Russell 2000 had a good week, pushing inside the prior head-and-shoulder consolidation, but there is still room to run resistance and new highs.

The S&P has to clear 2011 highs before it can challenge the 2008 high. It did manage to finish the week higher, but not with confirmed accumulation.

The Nasdaq remains the index of choice for bulls. A period of weakness will offer sideline monies a chance to partake, but it will be important for 2,700 support to hold on the weekly timeframe.  The Russell 2000 and S&P should come along for the ride, but are likely to lag action in Tech indices.

——

Follow Me on Twitter



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Larry Summers on Labor Participation Rate

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Bruce Krasting.

Larry Summers Blows It on TV 

Courtesy of Bruce Krasting

The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is a key economic statistic today. Changes in the LFPR are shaping the direction of the capital markets, federal economic policy, monetary policy and, most importantly, politics.

The LFPR hit a new record low on Friday. The key question that must be answered is:

Is the current LFPR a temporary phenomenon, or is this the “New Normal?”

If the current LFPR is, in fact, the new normal (I think it is), it has profound implications on the macro economic outlook for the USA. Virtually all of the economic models used by CBO, OMB, SSA and private economists are assuming that the long-term LFPR will be in the mid-to upper 60s. The consensus is 2-3% higher than where it is today. 

If you plug in a rate of 63% versus 67% over the next ten-years, it makes a huge difference on the size of the deficit and the public debt. It would cause the deficits at Social Security and Medicare to explode. The percentage of GDP attributable to the government would inevitably rise. The economy, and society in general, would be socialized. 

I don’t think there is a macro economist or economic policy deep-thinker out there that does not recognize the significance of the LFPR, or that it’s hitting new lows.

Let me confirm the data. This from the BLS. Note that January’s reading fell 0.3% to a multi-decade low:

.
This chart is also from the BLS. The trend is obvious:
.
.
I think most of the Biz press had the story right. The drop in the LFPR was highlighted (accurately) by many:
.

.

Okay, I hope I’ve convinced you of two things. 1) The LFPR is a very important statistic, and 2) The BLS reported on Friday that the LFPR had fallen to a new record low in January.

Now listen to what Larry Summers had to say about the LFPR this morning on ABC’s This Week show. (This is a painless, no commercial, 90 second video.)

 

 

Larry Summers is a possible candidate as the next Treasury Secretary. He has all


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Larry Summers Blows It on TV

Larry Summers Blows It on TV 

Courtesy of Bruce Krasting

The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is a key economic statistic today. Changes in the LFPR are shaping the direction of the capital markets, federal economic policy, monetary policy and, most importantly, politics.

The LFPR hit a new record low on Friday. The key question that must be answered is:

Is the current LFPR a temporary phenomenon, or is this the “New Normal?”

If the current LFPR is, in fact, the new normal (I think it is), it has profound implications on the macro economic outlook for the USA. Virtually all of the economic models used by CBO, OMB, SSA and private economists are assuming that the long-term LFPR will be in the mid-to upper 60s. The consensus is 2-3% higher than where it is today. 

If you plug in a rate of 63% versus 67% over the next ten-years, it makes a huge difference on the size of the deficit and the public debt. It would cause the deficits at Social Security and Medicare to explode. The percentage of GDP attributable to the government would inevitably rise. The economy, and society in general, would be socialized. 

I don’t think there is a macro economist or economic policy deep-thinker out there that does not recognize the significance of the LFPR, or that it’s hitting new lows.

Let me confirm the data. This from the BLS, Note that January's reading  fell 0.3% to a multi-decade low:

This chart is also from the BLS. The trend is obvious:

I think most of the Biz press had the story right. The drop in the LFPR was highlighted (accurately) by many:

Okay, I hope I’ve convinced you of two things. 1) The LFPR is a very important statistic, and 2) The BLS reported on Friday that the LFPR had fallen to a new record low in January.

Now listen to what Larry Summers had to say about the LFPR this morning on ABC’s This Week show. (This is a painless, no commercial, 90 second video.)

Larry Summers is a possible candidate as the next Treasury Secretary.  He has all the credentials. He knows where the bathroom is; he’s had the job before. But he blew it on the issue of what happened to


continue reading





6 Hour Greek Meeting Ends With No Agreement, Troika Demands Answer By 11am Tomorrow, EURUSD Drifts Lower

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The Greek endgame appears to be approaching… or not. After a “marathon” (in Greek terms) session between the Greek coalition cabinet members ended with no definitive agreement, and in fact LAOS president said that more austerity would “contribute to a recession that the country can not afford, and a revolution of misery which will then burn down Europe“, while New Democracy’s Samaras stated he would “not permit any more austerity”, even as Papademos on the other line apparently said that the leaders have agreed on 2012 spending cuts of 1.5% of GDP, the Troika seems to have had enough of being Greek’d around, and demands an answer by 11 am tomorrow. Supposedly, “or else” no more cash. Then again, we have heard all of this before. In fact, the Troika talks are continuing right now as European representatives entered the Greek PM office, following a late night meeting with the IIF. That said, the market is once again quite nonchalant about all of this, with the EURUSD trading down a modest 50 pips to 1.3107 having touched just under 1.3080 earlier. Bottom line: it is likely that nothing will happen tonight.

The following statement was released from the PM office:

PRESS OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER
Athens, 5 February 2012

 

The Prime Minister and the leaders of the three political parties supporting the government met in order to jointly decide on the main elements of the agreement with the troika regarding Greece’s new economic program in the framework of the new loan agreement.

 

The Prime Minister and the political leaders agreed on main issues, including:

 

1) The adoption of measures, in 2012, aiming to reduce public spending by 1.5% of GDP.

 

2) Safeguarding the viability of auxiliary pension funds.

 

3) Addressing the competitiveness deficit by taking measures including the reduction of wage and non-wage labor costs, aimed to support employment and promote economic activity.

 

4) The recapitalization of banks through a combination of measures that safeguard public interest and ensure the banks’ managerial autonomy.

 

The Prime Minister and the political party leaders will meet again tomorrow to conclude their talks on the content of the program.

More from Kathimerini:

“The prime minister and political leaders of three parties supporting the government met to take


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Zero Hedge

Johns Hopkins, Bristol-Myers Face $1 Billion Suit For Infecting Guatemalan Hookers With Syphilis 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A federal judge in Maryland said Johns Hopkins University, pharmaceutical company Bristol-Myers Squibb and the Rockefeller Foundation must face a $1 billion lawsuit over their roles in a top-secret program in the 1940s ran by the US government that injected hundreds of Guatemalans with syphilis, reported Reuters.

Several doctors from Hopkins an...



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Phil's Favorites

This Is The One Chart Every Trader Should Have "Taped To Their Screen"

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018.

By the start of the fourth quarter, the Fed had finished raising the caps on monthly roll-off of its balance sheet to the full $50bn per month (peaking at $30bn USTs, $20bn MBS, although on many months the (balance sheet) B/S does not actually shrink by this full amount which depends on the redemption schedule) and by end-Q4 markets also experienced some of the largest volatility and drawdowns in nearly a decade.

As Nomura&...



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ValueWalk

The Competition For Capital Has Made Stocks Cheap

By Michelle Jones. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The new year is upon us, and now is the time many investors look at what 2018 was and prepare for what 2019 might be. Recession jitters are starting to pick back up again, especially now that the full picture of 2018 is in the books. But what if you could pick only one theme for 2018? Jefferies strategist Sean Darby and team have a suggestion which is especially timely given that it appears to mark the end of an era.

StockSnap / PixabayVolatility carries into the new year

This past year was one of extremes, and the markets ended i...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stock declines did not break 9-year support, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We often hear “Stocks take an escalator up and an elevator down!” No doubt stocks did experience a swift decline from the September highs to the Christmas eve lows. Looks like the “elevator” part of the phrase came true as 2018 was coming to an end.

The first part of the “stocks take an escalator up” seems to still be in play as well despite the swift decline of late.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- All of these indices hit long-term rising support on Christmas Eve at each (1), where support held and rallies have followed.

If you find long-term perspectives helpf...



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Digital Currencies

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

 

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

Blockchain technologies can empower people by allowing them more control over their user data. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ajay Kumar Shrestha, University of Saskatchewan

Blockchain has already proven its huge influence on the financial world with its first application in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It might not be long before its impact is felt everywhere.

Blockchain is a secure chain of digital records that exist on multiple computers simultaneously so no record can be erased or falsified. The...



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Insider Scoop

Cars.com Explores Strategic Alternatives, Analyst Sees Possible Sale Price Around $30 Per Share

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related 44 Biggest Movers From Yesterday 38 Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Mid-Day Session ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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