Archive for 2012

UBS ‘manipulated Swiss franc rates since 2001′

UBS 'manipulated Swiss franc rates since 2001' (via AFP)

Swiss banking giant UBS, which last week was slapped with $1.5 billion in fines for manipulating global interest rates, also tampered with Swiss franc interest rates for more than a decade, a Swiss newspaper reported Sunday. "The bank did not only contribute to manipulating global interest rates on…





Moving Averages: Month-End Preview

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Here is a preview of the monthly moving averages I track on the last business day of the month. All three S&P 500 strategies are now signaling “invested” — unchanged from last month. However, the distance above the monthly moving average is in the yellow warning zone for all three. Likewise all of the Ivy Portfolio ETF 10-month moving averages are signaling “invested”, but DBC (the PowerShares DB Commodity Index), is above the 10MA by the least possible margin: 0.01 point. In the 12-month MA variation of the strategy, DBC is fractionally below the MA.

Positions that are less than 2% from a signal are highlighted in yellow. In this month’s preview, several carry the yellow alert.

Given the likely volatility triggered by the Fiscal Cliff negotiations on the last day of the month, we could see multiple sell signals at the close. However, the possibility of a market-friendly post-December 31st agreement on Cliff issues increases the possibility that any sell signals could be whipsaws.


Month-End Preview Note: My inclusion of the S&P 500 index updates is intended to illustrate a popular moving moving-average timing strategy. The index signals also give a general sense of how US equities are behaving. However, for followers of a moving average strategy, the general practice is to make buy/sell decisions on the signals for each specific investment, not based on a broad index. Even if you’re investing in a fund that tracks the S&P 500 (e.g., Vanguard’s VFINX or the SPY ETF) the moving average signals for the funds will occasionally differ from the underlying index because of dividend reinvestment, which is not factored into the index closes.

The Ivy Portfolio

The second of the three adjacent tables previews the 10-month SMA timing signals for the five asset classes highlighted in The Ivy Portfolio.

I’ve also included (third table) the 12-month SMA timing signals for the Ivy ETFs in response to the many requests I’ve received to include this slightly longer timeframe.


After the end-of-month market close, I’ll update the monthly moving average feature with charts to illustrate.

The bottom line, as I’ve pointed out earlier, is that these moving-average signals have a good track record for long-term gains while avoiding major losses. They’re not fool-proof, but they essentially dodged the 2007-2009 bear and captured significant gains since the initial buy signals after the March 2009 low.

 

 

 

 





Yen Declines Following Shinzo Abe’s Threat to Change Japanese Law; An Idle Threat?

Courtesy of Mish.

A very serious question that investors face today regards whether Japan is or isn’t serious about politicians taking over Japan’s central bank.

Personally, I think the politicians are serious, as well as “seriously wrong”.

If you think that I am wrong, please consider Yen Declines After Abe Says He May Change BOJ Law.

The yen declined versus its peers after incoming Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe said he will consider changing the law on the central bank unless it boosts its inflation target to 2 percent next month.

Abe said on Japan’s Fuji Television yesterday that he will consider revising the law governing the Bank of Japan if it fails to increase its inflation target from 1 percent at its January meeting. He is poised to become prime minister after his Liberal Democratic Party’s coalition secured a majority in elections on Dec. 16.

Abe has called on the BOJ to pursue “unlimited easing” to help end deflation and revive growth. BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa and his board last week refrained from doubling the central bank’s 1 percent inflation target, while expanding its asset-purchase program by 10 trillion yen ($118 billion) to 76 trillion yen.

Idle Threat?

I see no indication whatsoever this is an idle threat. The counter-argument in the form of a question is “what good did a 1% inflation target by the Bank of Japan do?”

The real question pertains not to the target but actual actions. After all, policy could be 20% instead of 2% but unless either the government or the central bank backs up the pronouncement with actions, talk is meaningless.

I happen to think Shinzo Abe is nuts enough on this go around, to do what he didn’t do the first time he was prime minister.

Moreover, my general belief is that statements by politicians regarding what they will or will not do are likely to be most accurate at times their policies will do the most damage.

In this case, Shinzo Abe’s threat, if carried out, would destroy Japan.

I take that threat very seriously….



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The ‘Fiscal Cliff’ Through the Eyes of Cartoonists

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Presented with little comment.

Whats-a-Fiscal-Cliff

So that's what the Mayas had in mind…

 

Fiscal-Cliff-2

No more delays!

 

fiscal-cliff-GRAVITY-cole

When in doubt, repeal gravity…

 

Approach

Almost there!

 

steering

The steering wheel is in capable hands…

 

metaphorical

Not to worry, it's not real..

 

I-can-see-Greece

I can see Greece from here!

 

The-Compromise

Outline of  the eventual compromise…

 

debt

The shape of the problem.

 

(h/t Pater Tenebrarum of Acting-Man blog)





David Rosenberg Made A Chart Notorious In 2012, But

David Rosenberg Made A Chart Notorious In 2012, But He Left It Out Of His Massive 2013 Chartbook

In his August 27 Breakfast With Dave note, Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg scared everyone with a chart plotting the year-over-year trend in 3-month moving core capital expenditure orders. This metric, Paul McCulley's favored recession leading indicator, is considered one of the most basic measures of what a company is investing in with its cash.  And it was signalling a recession.

core capex

Gluskin Sheff

 

"History shows when the trend weakened to the level we see today, the economy was in recession 100% of the time," reiterated Rosenberg a month later. "So stick that in you pipe and smoke it!"

Rosenberg shared it again during his October 10 presentation at Barry Ritholtz's Big Picture Conference, and soon after Wall Street strategists were passing it around like crazy.

So, we were a bit surprised when this chart, made famous by Rosenberg, didn't appear in his massive 2013 34-chart chartbook.

Perhaps, he left it out because the measure actually improved in October and November.

We're not suggesting that Rosenberg is cherry-picking his charts.  It's just that this chart isn't sending a clear signal of anything anymore.  One thing's for sure: it's no longer sending a recession signal with conviction.

It's worth noting that Rosenberg doesn't appear to be anchored in his bearishness.  Last month, he wrote that he was starting to see signs of capitulation, and days ago he offered a list of six economic clouds that were parting.

Perhaps the perma-bear is finally turning bullish.





2012: Calm Before The Storm

Courtesy of Gordon T. Long of GordonTLong.com

We have a new era dawning in Global Monetary policy. It is a new day with the monetary skies already red. Within 90 days the captains of monetary policy have steered the world into uncharted waters and on a course that history warns us against.

Federal Reserve: QE3 "Unlimited" and QE4 within 90 days, ECB: OMT "Uncapped", BoJ: QE 10 and the newly elected Prime Minister Abe's mandate for "Inflation at any cost" BoE: UK's newly appointed BoE Governor, Mark Carney's Monetary Evan Rule targeting. These untested and newly commissioned captains all have PhD's from the finest Economic schools in the world, but they clearly have not studied nor grasped the key lessons of history. To any sane person, who has a grasp of what is presently occurring, it is obvious that the current state of affairs is unsustainable. The question is how long can the Monetary Captains' misguided policies keep us off the shoals of our economic destruction. How long can policies of "Extend and Pretend", Kick the Can Down the Road" or "Fake it Until You Make It" continue? The answer is likely unknowable, the certainty of it ending badly is not.

 

Article – 2012 – Calm Before the Storm





A Young Financial Genius or an Author’s Crush? You Make the Call

A Young Financial Genius or an Author's Crush? You Make the Call

Courtesy of Dr. Paul Price

Bloomberg Businessweek and Meson Capital Partners present: 

Youthful Infatuation at its Worst? 

Businessweek’s title reads, “He’s 28, and Here to Take Over Your Company.” 

The story is like a love tribute to Ryan Morris who was lucky enough to start investing a whopping $50,000 via newly created Meson Capital Partners on Feb. 24, 2009. That was just days before the ultimate bottom/turning point that took place on March 9, 2009. 

Mr. Ryan, then 24 years old, made some seriously risky bets that paid off big simply because low quality assets were being dumped as potential bankruptcy candidates. Dart-throwing monkeys willing to buy at that moment in time would have been anointed as great stock pickers.

Lower-quality, highly-leveraged companies were being thrown out like garbage. There were dozens of issues that rebounded by five, ten- and twenty-fold from their super-depressed March 2009 quotes. 

Mr. Morris made some high-risk bets that paid off. Karen Weise, the article’s author, described in detail his spectacular 2009 returns as the overall market rebounded. 

Keep reading: A Young Financial Genius or an Author's Crush? You Make the Call





Equity Futures At Friday’s Lows

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

It seems a few humans have read a little this weekend and sold into the algo-induced euphoria from Friday’s close. S&P 500 futures are down around 9 points – at the lows from Friday’s day-session. EUR is bleeding modestly and JPY is weakening as equities appear to be recoupling with FX as a risk-driver (following EUR’s dislocation two weeks ago). Cash Treasuries are yet to open but futures infer 2-3bps compression in yields. Much was made of VIX’s ‘strength’ on Friday as some kind of tell; unfortunately misunderstanding is rife and it is evident that hedges were in fact rolled out into January (rather than lifted in any bullish manner). So far stocks are pushing back down to recouple with VIX’s view of the world. Silver is flat at $30, Gold and Oil down a little. 6 more hours til Europe opens.

S&P 500 futures (ES) have dropped back to the lows of the Friday day-session…

Equities and FX markets appear to have recoupled for now (blue oval) after EURUSD’s decoupling two weeks ago and AUDJPY’s decoupling last week…

 

and close-up shows the idiocy of the last hour on Friday – now recoupled with reality…

 

And it is clear when looking at the price action that spot option protection was rolled out to January (and still remains notably priced away from equity’s pollyanna world for now)…

 

Gold has caught down to Silver…

 

Charts: Bloomberg





Visualizing The Keynesian Endpoint

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

We recently posted Kyle Bass’s keynote speech at the Americatalyst 2012 conference. One of the main threads running through his thesis is the “Keynesian Endpoint”; covering debt super-cycles, the Federal Reserve’s inability to move rates from 0% and the (unintuitive) interconnectedness of sovereign default and hyperinflation. By way of clarification to global Ponzi we discussed earlier, Addogram has created an excellent infographic plotting the development of these ideas and mechanisms from 1792 to the present day.

 





“Trench Warfare” And “Civil War” Over Confiscatory Taxes In France

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by testosteronepit.

Wolf Richter   www.testosteronepit.com   www.amazon.com/author/wolfrichter

“We’re engaging in trench warfare,” proclaimed Alain Afflelou, head honcho and founder of an eyewear company with 1,200 stores in France and other countries. One of the wealthiest men in France. He was talking about the tax fiasco that split France in two. He was done with his country. He’s moving to London. One of France’s so-called fiscal exiles.

He’d set up his international headquarters in Switzerland, rather than France, 15 years ago to minimize his company’s tax burden, but now he’d personally bail out.

The clamor had started in September when it leaked out that Bernard Arnault, richest man in France and CEO of luxury-goods empires LVMH and Groupe Arnault, was applying for Belgian citizenship. In response, Economy Minister Pierre Moscovici threatened to renegotiate the tax treaties with Belgium, Luxembourg, and Switzerland. A few days ago, reports surfaced in the Belgian media that mailbox companies—a dozen at the Brussels apartment of a Groupe Arnault director alone—have allowed Arnault’s empire to escape several hundred million euros in taxes.

Belgium got cold feet. On Saturday before Christmas when nothing was supposed to happen, Anti-Fraud Secretary of State John Crombez requested that Finance Minister Steven Vanackere transfer Arnault’s tax file to the tax authorities in France, an idea the minister did not immediately reject.

Now Arnault got cold feet. LVMH and Groupe Arnault defended themselves the best they could, claiming that these mailbox companies had “economically perfectly real activities in Belgium where some of them have been implanted for decades.” Indeed, they were “surprised” by the allegations.

But no one stirred up the heat in France like iconic actor Gérard Depardieu who, turns out, set up his domicile in Néchin, a village just across the border in Belgium—as the mayor confirmed, “to escape French taxation.”

Final straw for President Hollande. Now he too threatened to renegotiate the tax treaty “to deal with cases of those who settle in some Belgian village.” He lashed out against the “fiscal dumping” that some countries in the EU were practicing. Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault chimed in; Depardieu’s exile was “pretty pathetic.”

Depardieu was not amused. In an open letter, he renounced his French citizenship, broadsided the Prime Minister and the President, and shocked the nation: all taxes combined ate…
continue reading





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Will The US Slap Sanctions On Nord Stream 2?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Nick Cunningham via OilPrice.com,

There is a growing push in the U.S. Congress to slap sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

The pipeline under construction would carry Russian natural gas to Germany, and has been a lightning rod of controversy both in Europe and across the Atlantic. Many governments and officials from Eastern Europe fear deeper dependence on Russia for gas supplies, a sentiment echoed by the U.S. government. Meanwhile, many in Western Europe are less concerned,...



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Phil's Favorites

US is already fighting a conflict with Iran - an economic war that is hurting the wrong people

 

Embed from Getty Images

 

US is already fighting a conflict with Iran – an economic war that is hurting the wrong people

Courtesy of David Cortright, University of Notre Dame

Many are worried about the risk of war with Iran after the Trump administration leaked discussions of a troop deployment in response to claimed threats to U.S. warships in the region.

And in r...



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Insider Scoop

Jefferies Sees 60-Percent Upside In Aphria Shares, Says Buy The Dip

Courtesy of Benzinga.

After a red-hot start to 2019, Canadian cannabis producer Aphria Inc (NYSE: APHA) has run out of steam, tumbling more than 31 percent in the past three months.

Despite the recent weakness, one Wall Street analyst said Friday that the stock has 30-percent upside potential. 

The Analyst

Jefferies analyst ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...



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Chart School

Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!


Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

This is a classic! ha!







Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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