Archive for 2012

UBS ‘manipulated Swiss franc rates since 2001′

UBS 'manipulated Swiss franc rates since 2001' (via AFP)

Swiss banking giant UBS, which last week was slapped with $1.5 billion in fines for manipulating global interest rates, also tampered with Swiss franc interest rates for more than a decade, a Swiss newspaper reported Sunday. "The bank did not only contribute to manipulating global interest rates on…





Moving Averages: Month-End Preview

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Here is a preview of the monthly moving averages I track on the last business day of the month. All three S&P 500 strategies are now signaling “invested” — unchanged from last month. However, the distance above the monthly moving average is in the yellow warning zone for all three. Likewise all of the Ivy Portfolio ETF 10-month moving averages are signaling “invested”, but DBC (the PowerShares DB Commodity Index), is above the 10MA by the least possible margin: 0.01 point. In the 12-month MA variation of the strategy, DBC is fractionally below the MA.

Positions that are less than 2% from a signal are highlighted in yellow. In this month’s preview, several carry the yellow alert.

Given the likely volatility triggered by the Fiscal Cliff negotiations on the last day of the month, we could see multiple sell signals at the close. However, the possibility of a market-friendly post-December 31st agreement on Cliff issues increases the possibility that any sell signals could be whipsaws.


Month-End Preview Note: My inclusion of the S&P 500 index updates is intended to illustrate a popular moving moving-average timing strategy. The index signals also give a general sense of how US equities are behaving. However, for followers of a moving average strategy, the general practice is to make buy/sell decisions on the signals for each specific investment, not based on a broad index. Even if you’re investing in a fund that tracks the S&P 500 (e.g., Vanguard’s VFINX or the SPY ETF) the moving average signals for the funds will occasionally differ from the underlying index because of dividend reinvestment, which is not factored into the index closes.

The Ivy Portfolio

The second of the three adjacent tables previews the 10-month SMA timing signals for the five asset classes highlighted in The Ivy Portfolio.

I’ve also included (third table) the 12-month SMA timing signals for the Ivy ETFs in response to the many requests I’ve received to include this slightly longer timeframe.


After the end-of-month market close, I’ll update the monthly moving average feature with charts to illustrate.

The bottom line, as I’ve pointed out earlier, is that these moving-average signals have a good track record for long-term gains while avoiding major losses. They’re not fool-proof, but they essentially dodged the 2007-2009 bear and captured significant gains since the initial buy signals after the March 2009 low.

 

 

 

 





Yen Declines Following Shinzo Abe’s Threat to Change Japanese Law; An Idle Threat?

Courtesy of Mish.

A very serious question that investors face today regards whether Japan is or isn’t serious about politicians taking over Japan’s central bank.

Personally, I think the politicians are serious, as well as “seriously wrong”.

If you think that I am wrong, please consider Yen Declines After Abe Says He May Change BOJ Law.

The yen declined versus its peers after incoming Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe said he will consider changing the law on the central bank unless it boosts its inflation target to 2 percent next month.

Abe said on Japan’s Fuji Television yesterday that he will consider revising the law governing the Bank of Japan if it fails to increase its inflation target from 1 percent at its January meeting. He is poised to become prime minister after his Liberal Democratic Party’s coalition secured a majority in elections on Dec. 16.

Abe has called on the BOJ to pursue “unlimited easing” to help end deflation and revive growth. BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa and his board last week refrained from doubling the central bank’s 1 percent inflation target, while expanding its asset-purchase program by 10 trillion yen ($118 billion) to 76 trillion yen.

Idle Threat?

I see no indication whatsoever this is an idle threat. The counter-argument in the form of a question is “what good did a 1% inflation target by the Bank of Japan do?”

The real question pertains not to the target but actual actions. After all, policy could be 20% instead of 2% but unless either the government or the central bank backs up the pronouncement with actions, talk is meaningless.

I happen to think Shinzo Abe is nuts enough on this go around, to do what he didn’t do the first time he was prime minister.

Moreover, my general belief is that statements by politicians regarding what they will or will not do are likely to be most accurate at times their policies will do the most damage.

In this case, Shinzo Abe’s threat, if carried out, would destroy Japan.

I take that threat very seriously….



Continue Here





The ‘Fiscal Cliff’ Through the Eyes of Cartoonists

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Presented with little comment.

Whats-a-Fiscal-Cliff

So that's what the Mayas had in mind…

 

Fiscal-Cliff-2

No more delays!

 

fiscal-cliff-GRAVITY-cole

When in doubt, repeal gravity…

 

Approach

Almost there!

 

steering

The steering wheel is in capable hands…

 

metaphorical

Not to worry, it's not real..

 

I-can-see-Greece

I can see Greece from here!

 

The-Compromise

Outline of  the eventual compromise…

 

debt

The shape of the problem.

 

(h/t Pater Tenebrarum of Acting-Man blog)





David Rosenberg Made A Chart Notorious In 2012, But

David Rosenberg Made A Chart Notorious In 2012, But He Left It Out Of His Massive 2013 Chartbook

In his August 27 Breakfast With Dave note, Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg scared everyone with a chart plotting the year-over-year trend in 3-month moving core capital expenditure orders. This metric, Paul McCulley's favored recession leading indicator, is considered one of the most basic measures of what a company is investing in with its cash.  And it was signalling a recession.

core capex

Gluskin Sheff

 

"History shows when the trend weakened to the level we see today, the economy was in recession 100% of the time," reiterated Rosenberg a month later. "So stick that in you pipe and smoke it!"

Rosenberg shared it again during his October 10 presentation at Barry Ritholtz's Big Picture Conference, and soon after Wall Street strategists were passing it around like crazy.

So, we were a bit surprised when this chart, made famous by Rosenberg, didn't appear in his massive 2013 34-chart chartbook.

Perhaps, he left it out because the measure actually improved in October and November.

We're not suggesting that Rosenberg is cherry-picking his charts.  It's just that this chart isn't sending a clear signal of anything anymore.  One thing's for sure: it's no longer sending a recession signal with conviction.

It's worth noting that Rosenberg doesn't appear to be anchored in his bearishness.  Last month, he wrote that he was starting to see signs of capitulation, and days ago he offered a list of six economic clouds that were parting.

Perhaps the perma-bear is finally turning bullish.





2012: Calm Before The Storm

Courtesy of Gordon T. Long of GordonTLong.com

We have a new era dawning in Global Monetary policy. It is a new day with the monetary skies already red. Within 90 days the captains of monetary policy have steered the world into uncharted waters and on a course that history warns us against.

Federal Reserve: QE3 "Unlimited" and QE4 within 90 days, ECB: OMT "Uncapped", BoJ: QE 10 and the newly elected Prime Minister Abe's mandate for "Inflation at any cost" BoE: UK's newly appointed BoE Governor, Mark Carney's Monetary Evan Rule targeting. These untested and newly commissioned captains all have PhD's from the finest Economic schools in the world, but they clearly have not studied nor grasped the key lessons of history. To any sane person, who has a grasp of what is presently occurring, it is obvious that the current state of affairs is unsustainable. The question is how long can the Monetary Captains' misguided policies keep us off the shoals of our economic destruction. How long can policies of "Extend and Pretend", Kick the Can Down the Road" or "Fake it Until You Make It" continue? The answer is likely unknowable, the certainty of it ending badly is not.

 

Article – 2012 – Calm Before the Storm





A Young Financial Genius or an Author’s Crush? You Make the Call

A Young Financial Genius or an Author's Crush? You Make the Call

Courtesy of Dr. Paul Price

Bloomberg Businessweek and Meson Capital Partners present: 

Youthful Infatuation at its Worst? 

Businessweek’s title reads, “He’s 28, and Here to Take Over Your Company.” 

The story is like a love tribute to Ryan Morris who was lucky enough to start investing a whopping $50,000 via newly created Meson Capital Partners on Feb. 24, 2009. That was just days before the ultimate bottom/turning point that took place on March 9, 2009. 

Mr. Ryan, then 24 years old, made some seriously risky bets that paid off big simply because low quality assets were being dumped as potential bankruptcy candidates. Dart-throwing monkeys willing to buy at that moment in time would have been anointed as great stock pickers.

Lower-quality, highly-leveraged companies were being thrown out like garbage. There were dozens of issues that rebounded by five, ten- and twenty-fold from their super-depressed March 2009 quotes. 

Mr. Morris made some high-risk bets that paid off. Karen Weise, the article’s author, described in detail his spectacular 2009 returns as the overall market rebounded. 

Keep reading: A Young Financial Genius or an Author's Crush? You Make the Call





Equity Futures At Friday’s Lows

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

It seems a few humans have read a little this weekend and sold into the algo-induced euphoria from Friday’s close. S&P 500 futures are down around 9 points – at the lows from Friday’s day-session. EUR is bleeding modestly and JPY is weakening as equities appear to be recoupling with FX as a risk-driver (following EUR’s dislocation two weeks ago). Cash Treasuries are yet to open but futures infer 2-3bps compression in yields. Much was made of VIX’s ‘strength’ on Friday as some kind of tell; unfortunately misunderstanding is rife and it is evident that hedges were in fact rolled out into January (rather than lifted in any bullish manner). So far stocks are pushing back down to recouple with VIX’s view of the world. Silver is flat at $30, Gold and Oil down a little. 6 more hours til Europe opens.

S&P 500 futures (ES) have dropped back to the lows of the Friday day-session…

Equities and FX markets appear to have recoupled for now (blue oval) after EURUSD’s decoupling two weeks ago and AUDJPY’s decoupling last week…

 

and close-up shows the idiocy of the last hour on Friday – now recoupled with reality…

 

And it is clear when looking at the price action that spot option protection was rolled out to January (and still remains notably priced away from equity’s pollyanna world for now)…

 

Gold has caught down to Silver…

 

Charts: Bloomberg





Visualizing The Keynesian Endpoint

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

We recently posted Kyle Bass’s keynote speech at the Americatalyst 2012 conference. One of the main threads running through his thesis is the “Keynesian Endpoint”; covering debt super-cycles, the Federal Reserve’s inability to move rates from 0% and the (unintuitive) interconnectedness of sovereign default and hyperinflation. By way of clarification to global Ponzi we discussed earlier, Addogram has created an excellent infographic plotting the development of these ideas and mechanisms from 1792 to the present day.

 





“Trench Warfare” And “Civil War” Over Confiscatory Taxes In France

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by testosteronepit.

Wolf Richter   www.testosteronepit.com   www.amazon.com/author/wolfrichter

“We’re engaging in trench warfare,” proclaimed Alain Afflelou, head honcho and founder of an eyewear company with 1,200 stores in France and other countries. One of the wealthiest men in France. He was talking about the tax fiasco that split France in two. He was done with his country. He’s moving to London. One of France’s so-called fiscal exiles.

He’d set up his international headquarters in Switzerland, rather than France, 15 years ago to minimize his company’s tax burden, but now he’d personally bail out.

The clamor had started in September when it leaked out that Bernard Arnault, richest man in France and CEO of luxury-goods empires LVMH and Groupe Arnault, was applying for Belgian citizenship. In response, Economy Minister Pierre Moscovici threatened to renegotiate the tax treaties with Belgium, Luxembourg, and Switzerland. A few days ago, reports surfaced in the Belgian media that mailbox companies—a dozen at the Brussels apartment of a Groupe Arnault director alone—have allowed Arnault’s empire to escape several hundred million euros in taxes.

Belgium got cold feet. On Saturday before Christmas when nothing was supposed to happen, Anti-Fraud Secretary of State John Crombez requested that Finance Minister Steven Vanackere transfer Arnault’s tax file to the tax authorities in France, an idea the minister did not immediately reject.

Now Arnault got cold feet. LVMH and Groupe Arnault defended themselves the best they could, claiming that these mailbox companies had “economically perfectly real activities in Belgium where some of them have been implanted for decades.” Indeed, they were “surprised” by the allegations.

But no one stirred up the heat in France like iconic actor Gérard Depardieu who, turns out, set up his domicile in Néchin, a village just across the border in Belgium—as the mayor confirmed, “to escape French taxation.”

Final straw for President Hollande. Now he too threatened to renegotiate the tax treaty “to deal with cases of those who settle in some Belgian village.” He lashed out against the “fiscal dumping” that some countries in the EU were practicing. Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault chimed in; Depardieu’s exile was “pretty pathetic.”

Depardieu was not amused. In an open letter, he renounced his French citizenship, broadsided the Prime Minister and the President, and shocked the nation: all taxes combined ate…
continue reading





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Enemy Of The People?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Via The Zman blog,

There has never been a time when normal people did not know the media was biased and biased in a predictable direction. For every non-liberal in the media, there were at least ten liberals. The ratio was probably higher, but then, as now, some lefties liked to pretend they were independents or some third option.

The media used to invest a lot of time denying they had a bias and an agenda, but the only people who believed them were on the Left, which had the odd effect of confirming they had a bias and an agenda.

...



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Phil's Favorites

A 2019 Earnings Recession?

 

A 2019 Earnings Recession?

Courtesy of 

Shout to Leigh!

On the new Talk Your Book – Josh Brown is joined by Leigh Drogen of Estimize, one of the leading providers of crowdsourced financial and economic data to talk about the trend in corporate profits that could potentially lead to an earnings recession later this year.

What is the thing that Leigh is seeing in the data that Wall Street isn’t yet picking up on? What segment of the stock market is most at risk? Why is the crowd smarter than the narrow consensus of Wall Street analysts?

Check out Estimize ...



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ValueWalk

D.E. Shaw Investment Calls For Leadership Change At EQT

By ActivistInsight. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Elliott Management has offered to acquire QEP Resources for approximately $2.1 billion, contending the oil and gas explorer’s turnaround efforts have done little to lift the company’s share price. The company responded and said that a thorough review of the proposition is imperative in order to properly act in the best interests of shareholders, “taking into account the company’s other alternatives and current market conditions.” The news came only a month after Travelport Worldwide agreed to sell itself to Siris Capital Group and Elliott’s private equity arm Evergreen Coast Capital for $4.4 billion in cash and two months after Athenahealth was bought by Veritas and Evergreen for $5.7 bi...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold & Silver Testing Important Breakout Levels!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Gold and Silver from a long-term perspective have created a series of lower highs over the past 8-years. Will 2019 bring a change to this trend? A big test is in play!

Gold since the lows in 2016 has created a series of higher lows, while Silver may have created a double bottom.

Gold & Silver are currently facing break attempts a (1) and (2). These falling resistance lines have disappointed metals bulls for the past few years.

The direction of Gold and Silver weeks and months from now should be highly influenced by what each does as they are attempting to break above important resistance levels.

To become a member of Kimbl...



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Insider Scoop

UBS Says Disney's Streaming Ambition Gives It A 'New Hope'

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related DIS Despite Some Risks, Analysts Still Expecting Double Digit Growth From Communications Services In Q4 ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Digital Currencies

Russia Prepares To Buy Up To $10 Billion In Bitcoin To Evade US Sanctions

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

While the market has been increasingly focused on the rising headwinds in the global economy in general, and China's economic slowdown in particular, while the media is obsessing over daily revelations that Trump may or may not have colluded with Russia to get elected, a far more critical, if underreported, shift has been taking place over the past year.

As we reported in June, whether due to concerns over draconian western sanctions and asset confiscations following the poisoning of former Russian military officer Sergei Skripal, or simply because it wanted to diversify away from the dollar, Russia liquidated virtually all of its Treasury holdings in the late spri...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's failure based on his personality, which was evident years ago. This article, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump became president, in July, 2016, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>