Archive for 2012

Gauging Investor Sentiment with Twitter: New Update

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.


The Downside Hedge Twitter Sentiment Indicator for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) strengthened a bit over the last week; however, it is not confirming the sharp upward move from 1400 to 1465. It is painting a negative divergence with price on both daily and smoothed sentiment. Although traders are tweeting about higher prices, they believe the market needs to consolidate before moving higher. Longer term investors are tweeting about their belief that the current rally is the last gasp before the market turns down for a substantial correction or even a bear market. Add to that the general uncertainty that comes before earnings season and we get a rally with diverging sentiment.

Smoothed sentiment broke below its rising up trend line a few weeks ago. It is still trading below that point even though SPX is nearly 50 points higher. This is not encouraging for the bulls. However, smoothed sentiment is still above zero and above the low it painted the previous week which tells us the bulls are still winning. The break of the trend line and the current divergence suggest that this rally is getting tired. This increases the odds for a consolidation before the market can move substantially higher.

Twitter support and resistance levels rose dramatically last week with calls for prices below the market virtually disappearing. In fact, most of the tweets below the market were points that traders expected to buy on a dip. The support levels mentioned the most were clustered in the 1445 area on SPX so we consider it major support. Below that we have 1400 as the next major support level. Above the market the September high near 1475 is the most tweeted level with 1500 coming in as a close second. There are some scattered tweets above 1500, but not yet in sufficient volume to create likely targets. The tweets for higher prices suggest that traders are looking up once again.

Taken all together the most likely near term direction will be down, but it shouldn?t do serious damage to the market as buyers should appear below 1450 on SPX. We expect some consolidation, then a move higher (baring very bad news). Any move upward should be slowed by…
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Poison Pill and Gold Debate

Courtesy of Mish.

In Ho Hum – Fiscal Cliff Deal Stalls – Republicans Offer More and More Concessions; Poison Pill Nonsense I stated …

The real poison pill is allowing Social Security and Medicare costs to escalate unabated. Does anyone in either party want to admit the truth? … the best hope still remains that all compromises fail.

The above thought prompted Uncle Frank to respond in a comment “Mish relishes chaos and financial ruin for this country so his gold holdings shoot-up in value. Everyone has an ulterior motive you know.”

Ulterior Motives?

Since I get accused of this sort of thing quite frequently, please let me point out a few things:

  1. Gold has been sinking, as it should, if Congress is fiscally prudent.
  2. Government Should be Prudent
  3. Government Won’t Be Prudent

Should Congress be fiscally prudent (and the fiscal cliff is not close to being fiscally prudent),  I would change my stance on gold in one second flat.

Nonetheless, should Congress fail to address the Fiscal Cliff, I would expect the exact opposite of what Uncle Frank suggests.

In short, regardless of my personal beliefs regarding gold (that one would be prudent to buy and hold gold), I actually advocate government and Fed policies that are contrary to my recommendations.

My reasons are easily explained:

  1. Neither the Fed nor the government gives a damn about what is fiscally prudent. 
  2. Both the Fed and Congress are highly likely to debase currency, causing gold to rise, even if I think that is bad economic and fiscal policy, which of course I do.

Thus the accusations of Uncle Frank, and countless others before him are 100% baseless. Should Congress actually do what I expect, I think it would not be good for gold.



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Swing trading portfolio – week of December 31st, 2013

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

Swing trading virtual portfolio

 

One trade virtual portfolio

 





China PMI Surges To 19-Month High – US (And Chinese) Equities Sigh

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

There was a time when the US was the cleanest dirty shirt; it seems now, given the US equity futures’ (total lack of) reaction to tonight’s 19-month-high surge in the ever-trustworthy over-invested mal-allocated Chinese PMI that for once, all that matters is domestic issues. HSBC’s China PMI surged to 51.5, its highest since May 2011 and the Shanghai Composite is even shrugging it off as new export orders fell slightly (but of course all that matters is the top-line); and not wanting to burst anyone’s bubble but – a majority of survey respondents (nearly 85%) reported no change in the level of outstanding business, employment levels also remained broadly similar in December, with nearly 92% of panelists noting no change to workforce numbers. But apart from that, the drop in inventories (and jump in input prices) apparently was enough to jerk this idiotic barometer of whatever it is to something that purports to show the best manufacturing growth in 19 months. It seems clear that our Chinese ‘friends’ at the PBoC are telegraphing that we are on our own – there will be no easing from them in this environment – Trade accordingly…

 

 

and US equity futures reaction…

 

Shanghai Comp…





Ho Hum – Fiscal Cliff Deal Stalls – Republicans Offer More and More Concessions; Poison Pill Nonsense

Courtesy of Mish.

Republicans have offered more concessions including an agreement to hike taxes on those making as little as $400,000 (up from the $250,000 sought by Obama). They also backed down on a proposal to slow the growth of Social Security benefits.

They may as well throw out the white flag at this point. While I do not know if they reach a compromise today, it appears Senate Republicans are willing to do more than they should.

The fact remains this is a pathetic effort by both parties to rein in unsustainable budgets.

Please consider Fiscal deal stalls as clock ticks to deadline

Efforts to prevent the economy from tumbling over a “fiscal cliff” stalled on Sunday as Democrats and Republicans remained at loggerheads over a deal that would prevent taxes for all Americans from rising on New Year’s Day.

One hour before they had hoped to present a plan, Democratic and Republican Senate leaders said they were still unable to reach a compromise that would stop the automatic tax hikes and spending cuts that could push the U.S. economy back into recession.

“There are still serious differences between the two sides,” said Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid.

Progress still appeared possible after the two sides narrowed their differences on tax increases and Republicans indicated they would withdraw a contentious proposal to slow the growth of Social Security retirement benefits.

The two sides were close to agreeing to raise taxes on households earning around $400,000 or $500,000 a year – higher than Obama’s preferred threshold of $250,000 – several senators told reporters.

Republicans aim to pair any tax increase with government spending cuts to benefit programs that are projected to grow ever more expensive as the population ages in coming decades.

But their proposal to slow the growth of Social Security benefits by changing the way they are measured against inflation met fierce resistance from Democrats. Obama included the proposal, known as “chained CPI,” in an earlier proposal, but many of his fellow Democrats remain opposed.

‘POISON PILL’…



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JuMP YoU F*#CKeRS!

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by williambanzai7

 

JESUS

 

The Man in the High Choom Castle

.
MAN IN THE CHOOM CASTLE

.

THE CLIFF
.

"With the slightest disturbance, the dream is going to collapse."--Inception

FALLING TIME





Guest Post: Fiscal Cliff Contingencies

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Via Nic Bucheleres of NJBDeflator blog,

While debate over the Fiscal Cliff mostly centers around its latent whiplash effects on the United States economy, its inception is wholly a product of poor deal-making by politicians in Washington D.C. The series of agreements that led to what we know as the Fiscal Cliff began in 2010 in a divided “Lame Duck” session, where Congress passed the “Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010,” thereby extending the Bush Era tax-cuts for an extra two years. Affected by these tax-cuts were individual, corporate, estate, and trust taxes, as well as Social Security employee payroll taxes.

The divergence between consumers and producers within the real economy that has stumped economists for the better part of 2012 can, at least in part, be attributed to the Fiscal Cliff; but the anticipatory effects of the Fiscal Cliff on the United States of America evidently began with American politicians, and probably for the worse, that is where it will end. The division that has plagued Washington has grown starker in recent years, and the divergence between consumers and producers as a result of divided leadership stands as a testament to the irresponsibility of those sent to Washington D.C. to serve their country. These divergences cannot last forever, and depending on the events of the next couple weeks, the United States is due for a reversion to the mean. The direction of that reversion—either production up to meet consumption or consumption down to meet production and confirm a recession within the United States—is wholly on the shoulders of the politicians in Washington D.C.

Starting April 2011, ratings agencies began issuing official statements warning of a possible US credit downgrade if Congress failed to reach a deal over the federal debt. Of course, Congress did in fact fail to reach an agreement on a bi¬partisan debt reduction pact, which prompted the debt ceiling to be raised. Days after Congress passed the “Budget Control Act” raising the debt ceiling for the 47t1 time since 1917, Standard & Poor’s downgraded the US federal government credit rating from AAA to AA+, marking the first time in history that US debt was rated below AAA.

The impact of the one-time downgrade in the creditworthiness of US debt was minor, but it stands
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Fiscal Cliff Dive Into 2013?

Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

 Will 2013 start with a dive off the fiscal cliff?

fiscal cliff, etf, dia, spy, qqq, iwmAs 2012 draws to a close, the fiscal cliff issue comes down to the wire and new challenges face investors as 2013 approaches.

Regardless of if, when or how the fiscal cliff issue is resolved, the next big hurdle for U.S. stocks and ETFs is the budget ceiling debate set to start in January.  Of course, the last budget ceiling debate stalemate led to the current issue with the fiscal cliff and so rough water could lie just ahead in the New Year.

On My ETF Radar

s&p 500, spy, fiscal cliff, etfs

chart courtesy of StockCharts.Com

In the chart above of the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) we can see how the fiscal cliff has impacted this major U.S. ETF index.

Momentum and relative strength are in decline, as seen in the upper panels, and the S&P 500 Index (NYSEARCA:SPY) has once again fallen below its 50 day moving average, a short term sign of weakness.

Major resistance lies at the 1450 level with major support at the 200 day moving average.

The S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) will need to clear resistance to resume the uptrend, while a drop below the 200 day moving average would be a negative technical signal.

ETF News You Can Really Use

The fiscal cliff debate and attendant uncertainty generated a significant sell off in the closing minutes of last Friday’s session and left all  major indexes down for the week.

President Obama returned to Washington early from his Hawaiian vacation and on Sunday the Senate continued wrangling with the fiscal cliff issue.  As the clock ticks, it’s hard to imagine that an 11th hour save would be forthcoming, particularly in regards to the two thorniest issues of spending cuts and tax hikes.

Regardless of the outcome of these last minute talks, the debt ceiling debate lies just ahead and creates significant danger for U.S. investors who can remember the summer of 2011 when the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) fell more than 15% during the last debt ceiling standoff.

Major U.S. stock indexes have lost ground for five sessions in a row and face a shortened trading day on New Year’s Eve and are closed on New  Year’s Day.

On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSEARCA:DIA) dropped 1.2% and was down 1.9% for the…
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Pity the Payrollers – America’s Unsung Heros of the Fiscal Cliff.

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by bugs_.

It will be natural to sing the praises of our elected leadership after they have hammered out their deal to raise taxes in order to avert the crisis.  To recall that raising taxes is ever always the solution will be just as easy as to forget to honor the unsung heroes of the fiscal cliff – the software people that maintain America’s payroll systems.

Such is the lot of America’s Payrollers that they often do not know what parameters to enter into their systems until after the last possible moment.  They know they must make payroll – or else.  So they enter the worst case scenario into their systems, generate the checks, and know all the while that less than understanding co-worker complaints await them.

Before they generate the checks they must test their system with the worst case parameters.  Usually this work is done at the last minute, i.e., over the holiday season.  There will be no pats on the back for this.

Unfortunately for our silent heroes this is not the end.  After a few more weeks of political showmanship there will be a new deal with new tax rates and income brackets.  All payroll systems will have to be modified and tested yet again to support the new parameters.  Previous checks will have to be adjusted and corrected in short order.  Mistakes and manual corrections will have to be made and remade.  Nobody will know where they stand for months.

Eventually – perhaps by the summer – all of the trials and tribulations for our heroes of payroll will be squared away.  Perhaps with the new revenue the debt ceiling debate will also be postponed to the summer.  Of course no debt ceiling debate could be complete without a discussion about raising additional revenue.  Such a debate might last through the next holiday season but there will be nothing to worry about.  America’s Payrollers will be on the job to make sure the true fundamentals of our economy are strong.

This January when we all regard our paystubs (cliffstubs?) and smell that initial smell of the Austerity Bomb let us remember to not hold America’s Payrollers in low regard.  Let us instead consider their plight as it is a side effect of our political stalemate.  It is a good bet that next holiday…
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Market Opens Near Friday’s Lows As Senate Gives Up (Early) For The Night

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

UPDATE: ES scrambled up to Flash-Crash lows at 1391.5

No Deal; No Deal. The updates came thick and fast and almost entirely full of nothing until Harry Reid called a halt to proceedings:

  • *REID SAYS SENATE WILL RESUME WORK AT 11 A.M. TOMORROW
  • *REID SAYS `THERE’S STILL TIME LEFT’ TO REACH BUDGET AGREEMENT

S&P 500 Futures Open at Friday’s lows amid higher than average volume but is modestly off the lows as an initial push (ES +4). EURUSD is 8 pips higher (in a purely algo-oriented lift as it was completely oblivious into Friday’s close).

ES bounced a little

 

EURUSD vs ES

 

ES up to Flash Crash lows… interesting from here…





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Enemy Of The People?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Via The Zman blog,

There has never been a time when normal people did not know the media was biased and biased in a predictable direction. For every non-liberal in the media, there were at least ten liberals. The ratio was probably higher, but then, as now, some lefties liked to pretend they were independents or some third option.

The media used to invest a lot of time denying they had a bias and an agenda, but the only people who believed them were on the Left, which had the odd effect of confirming they had a bias and an agenda.

...



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Phil's Favorites

A 2019 Earnings Recession?

 

A 2019 Earnings Recession?

Courtesy of 

Shout to Leigh!

On the new Talk Your Book – Josh Brown is joined by Leigh Drogen of Estimize, one of the leading providers of crowdsourced financial and economic data to talk about the trend in corporate profits that could potentially lead to an earnings recession later this year.

What is the thing that Leigh is seeing in the data that Wall Street isn’t yet picking up on? What segment of the stock market is most at risk? Why is the crowd smarter than the narrow consensus of Wall Street analysts?

Check out Estimize ...



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ValueWalk

D.E. Shaw Investment Calls For Leadership Change At EQT

By ActivistInsight. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Elliott Management has offered to acquire QEP Resources for approximately $2.1 billion, contending the oil and gas explorer’s turnaround efforts have done little to lift the company’s share price. The company responded and said that a thorough review of the proposition is imperative in order to properly act in the best interests of shareholders, “taking into account the company’s other alternatives and current market conditions.” The news came only a month after Travelport Worldwide agreed to sell itself to Siris Capital Group and Elliott’s private equity arm Evergreen Coast Capital for $4.4 billion in cash and two months after Athenahealth was bought by Veritas and Evergreen for $5.7 bi...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold & Silver Testing Important Breakout Levels!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Gold and Silver from a long-term perspective have created a series of lower highs over the past 8-years. Will 2019 bring a change to this trend? A big test is in play!

Gold since the lows in 2016 has created a series of higher lows, while Silver may have created a double bottom.

Gold & Silver are currently facing break attempts a (1) and (2). These falling resistance lines have disappointed metals bulls for the past few years.

The direction of Gold and Silver weeks and months from now should be highly influenced by what each does as they are attempting to break above important resistance levels.

To become a member of Kimbl...



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Insider Scoop

UBS Says Disney's Streaming Ambition Gives It A 'New Hope'

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related DIS Despite Some Risks, Analysts Still Expecting Double Digit Growth From Communications Services In Q4 ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Digital Currencies

Russia Prepares To Buy Up To $10 Billion In Bitcoin To Evade US Sanctions

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

While the market has been increasingly focused on the rising headwinds in the global economy in general, and China's economic slowdown in particular, while the media is obsessing over daily revelations that Trump may or may not have colluded with Russia to get elected, a far more critical, if underreported, shift has been taking place over the past year.

As we reported in June, whether due to concerns over draconian western sanctions and asset confiscations following the poisoning of former Russian military officer Sergei Skripal, or simply because it wanted to diversify away from the dollar, Russia liquidated virtually all of its Treasury holdings in the late spri...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's failure based on his personality, which was evident years ago. This article, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump became president, in July, 2016, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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