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Thursday, December 1, 2022


Testy Tuesday – Blurred Lines

I feel so lucky
Hey, hey, hey
You wanna hug me
Hey, hey, hey
What rhymes with hug me?
Hey, hey, hey – Blurred Lines 

Sadly, this is what passes for music these days.  

Also sadly, this is what passes for a rally these days, with our major indexes skipping along their 5% lines on our Big Chart like stones across a pond.  Of course, we know what usually happens to stones that skip across a pond after a bounce or two

We're PATIENTLY waiting for the big splash on oil, which gave us a small dip on Friday (0.50) down to the $104 line but then jammed way up to $106.50 and has been over $107 this morning.  This is why we keep VERY tight stops over our .50 lines and already this morning we got another ride down from $107 to $106.25, which makes up for a bunch of dime losses on the stop lines.  Now the NYMEX crooks are pretending to want 243M barrels for September delivery and that's down just 18M from Friday and there's only 6 trading days left before they're forced to take them!  Still plenty of time to execute my plan to sell all 243M contracts (now $106.50) and force the bastards to choke on the deliveries next month!  

Oh sorry, when I said that 243M barrels are down from last week, I may have given the wrong impression as the criminal oil manipulators trading at the NYMEX haven't done anything but ROLL the contract to other months so they can keep the con going.  As you can see from Friday's chart, there were "only" 220,000 fake demand contracts written for October but now there are 233,000.  

So 13,000 of our 18,000 conracts that disappeared from September are now in October – driving those prices artificially higher.   November is up 13,000 to 150,000 and December is up 9,000, from 205,000 to 214,000.  Are you starting to feel like one of those kids who's drunk uncle is trying to show a "magic trick" to by making quarters disappear and then come out of your ears?  That's the scam:  A 5-year old can see the trick but not our regulators or Congresspeople, apparently.  

Fortunately, we can profit from the trick by shorting those Futures contracts (/CL) at each .50 line they test with tight (.05) stops over the lines.  You don't want to go in and out over and over of course but, with practice, you can fish for nickels and dimes at the lines and, at $10 per penny, per contract – those nickels and dimes are worth taking.

We teach our Members how to play them with plenty of weekly examples (oil isn't the only thing we play, of course) but now, for the laymen out there, USO has gotten cheap again, with the Oct $37 puts at $1.10 with oil at $106.50 and USO at $37.75 so you need a move down to $35.90 or lower to be in the money and that's down 5%, which would be $101 oil.  That's the bet between now and October that we currently have in our Short-Term Portfolio.  

If not for the high price of gas, in fact, today's Retail Sales number would have been a negative as that component of Retail Sales rose 0.7% while overall Retail Sales rose a very disappointing 0.2% and our Export Prices were DOWN a recessionary 0.1% as well.  

Food prices popped 2.3% at the grocery stores as well as the Fed's lack of inflation just keeps slapping the consumer right in the face.  In something that seems obvious to us but seems to catch analysts by surprise – Department Store Sales dropped 4.8% since the extra money paid for food and groceries has to come from somewhere.  As you can see from the chart on the left, Auto Sales also suffered as consumers were forced to cut back to fill up their tanks.  

I already put up a note to our Members at 4:13 this morning to look for $106.50 to short oil (/CL) and 15,450 to short the Dow (/YM) and I was kind enough to tweet it out as well – so don't say you didn't have a chance to play! 

9:25 Update – Wheeee! already and oil is down to $106 for a $500 per contract win first thing in the morning (so far).  Even if you don't want to subscribe to www.philstockworld.com – you should at least consider following me on Twitter if you want to get those early morning chances to make some MONEY!  




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And Japan is doing well but the Yen is down 12% for the year! Commodities (besides oil) and treasuries not having a good year.

ZXZ- would much appreciate a copy of the report:



Robert Shiller: Does his method really overestimate current P/E ratios?  http://blogs.ft.com/ft-long-short/2013/08/13/the-cape-of-less-hope/


Please try upalli@yahoo.com.  Thanks!

More on Icahn's tweet:

Icahn did quietly prep the world yesterday for his big social media splash. According to an Icahn Enterprises SEC filing made yesterday: “Our Chairman, Carl C. Icahn, intends to use Twitter from time to time to communicate with the public about our company and other issues.”

Icahn Enterprises specifically cites SEC guidance from a few months ago that companies can use social media to disclose financial data. But tweeting about a private meeting with the chief executive of a publicly traded company not your own doesn’t feel like the use case the agency anticipated.

Darn right…

Not a big surprise:


China’s economy could be $1 trillion smaller than it says.

Christopher Balding, a professor at Peking University, lays out the case in a new working paper that finds some very strange patterns in China’s official statistics, which have long been viewed with skepticism. He believes the government manipulated housing price data between 2000 and 2011 to produce lower inflation results. Balding makes four key observations:

1. Why doesn’t the housing price data reflect China’s massive migration?
2. Or its massive economic growth?
3. Why is China over-weighting city citizens?
4. How can China have so few renters?

All told, when Balding re-adjusts the data to take into account what he calls more accurate assumptions about where Chinese citizens are living and how much their homes cost, he sees an extra 1% of inflation each year. Over the decade in question, that eats up about $1 trillion in real Chinese growth. That should give anyone invested in China’s economy, figuratively or financially, a moment of pause. Or, if you don’t believe him, prepare yourself to believe this fact from China’s national statisticians: From 2003 to 2011, the only consumer prices that rose in China were for food, which made up 99% of the official increase in consumer prices.

The entire article is worth a read…

Apologies if this is a repeat…but Five Years Later, Fed Finds QE Has "At Best, Moderate Effects On Economic Growth" via the SF Fed.


Holy moly – what a ROI…now I am reading the article in its entirety from the Fed Pages here….

In November 2010, the Fed’s policy committee, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), announced a program to purchase $600 billion of long-term Treasury securities, the second of a series of large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs). The program’s goal was to boost economic growth and put inflation at levels more consistent with the Fed’s maximum employment and price stability mandate. In Chen, Cúrdia, and Ferrero (2012), we estimate that the second LSAP program, known as QE2, added about 0.13 percentage point to real GDP growth in late 2010 and 0.03 percentage point to inflation.

PHIL-  after closing out some (profitable) trades over the past few weeks, I've got to thank you again for sharing your knowledge.  

Now I find myself struggling with my AAPL position.  I currently own a jan 14 435 c @ 77 (break even @ 512) and trying to figure out how to handle.  Should I roll or hold pat until sept 10?  If roll, I've considered the 480 jan 15 / 560 jan 14 or even the jan 15 390/505.  If you can't tell, I'm just conflicted at this point.  Any suggestions?

Pharm – you can poo p00 GALT all you want.  All I can say is, I'm half out with a 70% profit.  :

You said earllier:

"ZLCS killed.  LOL….penny stock.  Holding (barely) 200d MA.  All driven by bots, algos and swing traders.  Still holding"

Do you really think the bots, algos, and swing traders are concerned about a 60 cent stock ?

I don't think so.

Last year's hurricane season was one of a string of record hurricane years since 2008 or so.  This might make the weather even crazier: http://uk.news.yahoo.com/sun-s-magnetic-field–is-about-to-flip—warns-nasa-131005894.html#2MNToSX

Offending Activists – Rose makes some good points here..

Main point is that if you believe that any government is 'legitimate' than you are not and cannot be free as you cannot even conceive freedom in your own mind.




I only now saw your post from this afternoon on the "fiscal cliff" article. If its not too much trouble, I was hoping you could send it my way. Thx!


No trouble, Dc.

It's out.

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