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Friday, April 19, 2024

New Home Sales Plunge 13.4% in July, June Revised Lower; Blame Rising Mortgage Rates; Starts 896,000 – Sales 394,000 – Hmmm

Courtesy of Mish.

On August 14 I penned Mortgage Applications Decline 13th Time in 15 Weeks; Are Mortgage Rates Cheap? What’s Next For Housing?.

Pertinent Snips

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgages

Explaining the Rebound in Housing

If you are looking for what fueled the rebound in home sales and the increase in home prices, look no further than the above chart.

In the two-year period from December 2010 until December 2012, the rate on popular 30-year mortgages fell from 4.97% to 3.42%, a decline of 155 basis points (1.55 percentage points). In April, rates were still near record lows at 3.56%.

Treasury Yields and Housing Affordability

On June 24, in 10-Year Treasury Yield Up 100 Basis Points Since May; What’s That Mean for Mortgage Rates and Housing Affordability? I commented …

Anyone who stretched to buy is no longer qualified unless they locked some time ago.

Refinancing will soon be dead in the water (anyone who has not already locked no longer has any incentive) and new home affordability has taken a big hit.

Mainstream media talking heads say this will not affect the housing recovery. Assuming this trend sticks (even if rates simply level off now), how can this bond revolt not affect housing?

Sales Plunge Starts Rise

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