Courtesy of Doug Short.
The Latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was released this morning based on data collected through December 17. The 78.1 reading was above the 76.0 forecast of Investing.com and 6.1 above the November 72.0 (previously reported at 70.4). This measure of confidence has risen from two months of weak numbers but remains below its range in the low 80s from June through September.
Here is an excerpt from the Conference Board report.
Says Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board: “Consumer confidence rebounded in December and is now close to pre-government shutdown levels (September 2013, 80.2). Sentiment regarding current conditions increased to a 5 ? year high (April 2008, 81.9), with consumers attributing the improvement to more favorable economic and labor market conditions. Looking ahead, consumers expressed a greater degree of confidence in future economic and job prospects, but were moderately more pessimistic about their earning prospects. Despite the many challenges throughout 2013, consumers are in better spirits today than when the year began.”
Consumers’ appraisal of overall current conditions improved. Those claiming business conditions are “good” edged down to 19.6 percent from 20.4 percent, however, those claiming business conditions are “bad” decreased to 22.6 percent from 24.6 percent. Consumers’ appraisal of the job market was also more upbeat. Those saying jobs are “plentiful” ticked up to 12.2 percent from 12.0 percent, while those saying jobs are “hard to get” decreased to 32.5 percent from 34.1 percent.
Consumers’ expectations, which had decreased in November, improved in December. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months increased to 17.2 percent from 16.7 percent, and those expecting business conditions to worsen decreased to 14.0 percent from 16.1 percent.
Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was considerably more optimistic. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead increased sharply to 17.1 percent from 13.1 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs decreased to 19.0 percent from 21.4 percent. The proportion of consumers expecting their incomes to increase declined to 13.9 percent from 15.3 percent, while those expecting a decrease in their incomes declined to 14.0 percent from 15.5 percent. [press release]
Putting the Latest Number in Context
Let’s take a step back and put Lynn Franco’s interpretation in a larger perspective. The table here shows the average consumer confidence levels for each of the five recessions during the history of this monthly data series, which dates from June 1977. The latest number has moved 8.7 points above the recession mindset but remains over 16 points below the non-recession average.
The chart below is another attempt to evaluate the historical context for this index as a coincident indicator of the economy. Toward this end I have highlighted recessions and included GDP. The exponential regression through the index data shows the long-term trend and highlights the extreme volatility of this indicator. Statisticians may assign little significance to a regression through this sort of data. But the slope clearly resembles the regression trend for real GDP shown below, and it is a far more revealing gauge of relative confidence than the 1985 level of 100 that the Conference Board cites as a point of reference. Today’s reading of 78.1 is just a tad below the current regression level of 78.3.
On a percentile basis, the latest reading is at the 29.9 percentile of all the monthly readings since the start of the monthly data series in June 1977 and at the 24.8 percentile (i.e., the top of the lowest quartile) of non-recessionary months.
For an additional perspective on consumer attitudes, see my post on the most recent Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Here is the chart from that post.
And finally, let’s take a look at the correlation between consumer confidence and small business sentiment, the latter by way of the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index. As the chart illustrates, the two have tracked one another fairly closely since the onset of the Financial Crisis.
The NFIB index has been less volatile than the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index.
