Archive for 2013

S&P 500: $0; Federal Reserve: $2.5 Trillion: The “Anti-Correlation” Between The Economy And Profits

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

There is a reason why US corporate balance sheets have rarely been in better shape: it is because the Fed has become the S&P500′s bad bank.

As the chart below shows, in the six years between 2006 and 2012, corporate net debt of the S&P500 has barely budged from $1.5 trillion, even as corporate profits have soared (albeit profit margins have now declined for two straight years as SG&A has already been cut to the bone, while the marginal benefit from such below the line items as net interest is about to turn negative if and when rates really turn higher – hint: they won’t, because Bernanke is all too aware of this particular nuance). What has offset this?

Why the bad bank formerly known as the Federal Reserve of course, which has huffed and puffed, and force-fed $2.5 trillion in new credit money (mostly reserves) down the market’s throat (created out of thin Treasurys), which has zero end-demand for such credit, as a result it has gone straight into the one place that will gladly accept it – the stock market. For now at least. At some point this fungible money will spill over and then all bets are off.

It gets better.

Ever had the feeling like the market is beyond broken, and all correlations between corporate profits and fundamental economic factors have been totally and utterly broken (sarcasm aside of course)? Of course you have. So has Morgan Stanley’s Adam Parker. To wit:

One of the main challenges to assessing corporate profitability is the breakdown in relationships between economic variables and corporate profitability metrics. In fact, the two seem incongruous in some cases. If companies don’t invest in capital spending and research and development, they may maintain higher margins, but this lack of spending will not be a good catalyst for economic growth.

 

Why do some of the economic and corporate relationships no longer hold? One possible explanation is that while company balance sheets are in great shape, the Fed’s balance sheet has massively expanded over the past few years.

See chart above… and read on:

There appeared to be a relationship between GDP


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Japanese Stocks Open -3%, JPY Under 101.00, JGBs -2bps

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

UPDATE 1: S&P 500 futures now red (-5.5 points from open); TOPIX -3%, Japanese banks and real estate leading the slide (-16% from highs).

UPDATE 2: JPY has broken back under 101.00

It seems the sell-the-f$$king-bounce crowd are back in Japan once again. Minutes from the last BoJ meeting are providing some ammo for the fall as doubts appear among the members of the committee…

  • *ONE BOJ MEMBER: DOWNSIDE RISKS FOR PRICES ARE LARGER
  • *A FEW MEMBERS: SEEMS HARD TO REACH 2% IN LATTER HALF OF PERIOD
  • *A FEW MEMBERS:KEEP MULLING STEPS TO AVOID DECLINING LIQUIDITY

For now, JPY has strengthened notably from its gap-weaker open and is trading around unchanged from Friday’s close. JGBs opened modestly stronger. But it is the equity market that is fading fast with TOPIX now down 28 points (2.5%) from Friday’s close – pressuring the lows once again (and the 10% correction) as the realization that ‘Abe can’t have his equity euphoria and eat his low interest rate cake too’ increases

 

 

Charts: Bloomberg





Japanese Stocks Open -2.3% (JPY And JGBs Unch)

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

UPDATE: S&P 500 futures now red (-5.5 points from open); TOPIX -3%, Japanese banks and real estate leading the slide.

It seems the sell-the-f$$king-bounce crowd are back in Japan once again. Minutes from the last BoJ meeting are providing some ammo for the fall as doubts appear among the members of the committee…

  • *ONE BOJ MEMBER: DOWNSIDE RISKS FOR PRICES ARE LARGER
  • *A FEW MEMBERS: SEEMS HARD TO REACH 2% IN LATTER HALF OF PERIOD
  • *A FEW MEMBERS:KEEP MULLING STEPS TO AVOID DECLINING LIQUIDITY

For now, JPY has strengthened notably from its gap-weaker open and is trading around unchanged from Friday’s close. JGBs opened modestly stronger. But it is the equity market that is fading fast with TOPIX now down 28 points (2.5%) from Friday’s close – pressuring the lows once again (and the 10% correction) as the realization that ‘Abe can’t have his equity euphoria and eat his low interest rate cake too’ increases

 

 

Charts: Bloomberg





Learning From Mistakes

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by James E. Miller of the Ludwig von Mises Institute of Canada,

The old idiom “you can lead a horse to water, but not make him drink” has proven itself true in the course of human learning. Or rather, it would be more accurate to label it man’s inability to learn from mistakes. You can hold a mirror up to grotesque instances of hypocrisy, but most men will remain mules – stubborn in their prejudice and beliefs. The ability to heed lessons from blunders is, often times, a skill unable to be mastered by the mass populace. A child might learn to not touch a searingly hot stove, but adults are apt to accept their condition of intellectual stupor – even when it proves painful.

It’s said the market process accounts for mistakes through the imposition of cost. This is true inasmuch as hemorrhaging income will inevitably result in bankruptcy. The problem is, man was not gifted with the same incentive to disregard plainly untrue, and even destructive, ideas. Like an abusive lover or a fond memory, the draw of allurement can be too intoxicating to let go. The innate learning process becomes corrupted in favor of emotional succor that accompanies comforting beliefs.

Take frail womanizer and disgraced Congressman Anthony Weiner. His announcement to seek the Mayor’s office in New York City brought about plenty of jokes at the expense of his anatomy-sounding name. Rumours have swirled about his possible run for months. At first, they were dismissed due to the sexual exploits that forced him from office. Now he is pulling an about face à la Bill Clinton and attempting to lift his public perception back from the toilet. Seeing as how Weiner’s wife (that just rolls off the tongue, doesn’t it?) is a former aide to Hillary “no shame” Clinton, the crushing ignominy of her husband’s pathetic attempt to woo over girls will be suppressed. There is little doubt Weiner will be crowned king of the Big Apple considering the city’s affinity for sleazebag politicians. After the Stalin-esque reign of tyrant Bloomberg, a philanderer who never made a dime in honest cash will seem like the second coming. The lies, theft, and heap of unscrupulous behavior that defines the state will continue under Weiner’s watch. Except…
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The Chart That The BoJ Is Most Worried About (And So Should You Be)

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Until the last few days, the attention of the mainstream business media has been on how ‘wonderful’ Japan’s policy prescription must be since its stock market is soaring at a record pace. The reality is that the far bigger JGB market has been crumbling. As we explained here, this is a major problem for the bubble-blowers, as the extreme volatility (VaR shock) that the Japanese Government Bond market has been through in the last few weeks has some very large and painful consequences, that as yet, have not been discussed widely. The term ‘shadow banking’ has been one ZH readers are by now extremely familiar with as we have discussed this as the panacea of unseen leverage (most recently in Europe and China) for years; the funding markets in Japan, so heavily reliant on JGB repo for short-term liquidity and the efficient functioning of two-way markets in the bonds, are hitting a wall. As JPMorgan notes, the number of JGB ‘fails’ – where a repo deal breaks down – has more than doubled in the last week. For a market that represents 40% of the total Japanese money-market, this will be a critical area to watch for a JGB waterfall.

 

 

Via JPMorgan:

The sharp rise in JGB volatility has not left the JGB repo market unaffected. The ¥80tr large Japanese repo market accounts for 40% of the total size of Japanese money market (which it also includes CDs/CPs, currency swaps, BoJ money market operations, and Call transactions) and it is an important lubricant of the JGB market. This is because repos with JGBs as collateral, account for more than 99% of domestic repo transactions. The haircuts are typically very low in the JGB repo market ranging from zero to 2%. This is because market participants are comfortable or accustomed to control risks through margin calls without often setting a haircut upfront.

 

But these margin calls or haircuts where applicable, tend to rise when volatility rises. And the rise in margin calls or haircuts has caused a rise in “fails”. 175 fails in the month of April represents a sharp increase from March but it is still much lower from the >1000 figures seen immediately post Lehman.


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What The Income Statement Of The Entire Market Looks Like

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

In the New Normal, where fundamentals ceased to matter some time around March 2009 when Bernanke decided to nationalize first the bond, then the stock market, and soon, every other “market”, stuff like “data” is largely meaningless. However, for those who are still curious how the cash flow in the biggest corporate market – that of America – looks like, instead of merely chasing the latest trend or looking for a heatmap break out, here it is.

Using Factset data for the 1500 largest stocks (ex fins), Morgan Stanley has broken down the world’s biggest Income Statement by line item (and by sector). The results are as follows.

Some observations:

  • Of the $12 trillion in total revenue, nearly $6 trillion each year is the cost of goods sold for consumer companies (discretionary plus staples), energy, and industrials.
  • Gross profit (net of COGS and D&A) is just 27% of revenue, or a little over $3 trillion.
  • Consolidated income tax is a tiny 2.5% of revenue. Of all sectors, Energy companies paid the most taxes in FY 2012: $89 billion.
  • Interest expense was a tiny $215 billion. It is here that the bulk of EPS “generation” has taken place in the past two years now that companies have fired the bulk of the “fat”, courtesy of constant refinancing into an ever cheaper cost of debt. A historical analysis of the interest expense line item shows a constant decline. At some point, this number will start rising again, especially if indeed the Fed wishes to see rates rise. At that point, there will be only downside for the market’s Net Income, despite what paid financial-humor pundits say to the contrary on TV.

The same chart as above broken down by industry:

Source: Morgan Stanely





The 6 Greatest Bob Dylan Songs Of All Time

Happy birthday tribute to Bob Dylan!  

I don't know how Joe selected these six songs. In a top six list, I probably would have picked out two of these and four others. (Like a Rolling Stone and Tangled Up in Blue stay – might add Mr. 'Mr. Tambourine Man', Subterranean Homesick Blues, Positively 4th Street…) What do you think?

The 6 Greatest Bob Dylan Songs Of All Time

It's Bob Dylan's 72nd birthday (May 24).

In honor of one of the world's greatest songwriters, here are Bob Dylan's Top 6 songs.

1. "Isis"

This song off of the album "Desire" is the best-ever song written about raiding tombs. It's got a driving piano line, and really shows off Dylan as a story teller.

Here's a live, electric version.

2. "Song to Woody"

An early Dylan song, written as an ode to his hero Woody Guthrie. The song truly captures the perspective of a young man from Minnesota hoping to replicate the life of his folk singer idols.

3. "Don't Think Twice, It's All Right"

One of the best songs ever written about love and heartbreak. Here's a great cover of it by Joan Baez.

4. "Like A Rolling Stone"

Rolling Stone called this the greatest rock and roll song of all time back in 2004. This song is everything: Rock and roll, punk rock, sneering protest folk. When I heard this song in a store when I was 11, I ran around looking for my mom, so that she could tell me what the heck amazing song I just heard.

5. "Oh Sister"

Bob Dylan went through a born-again phase, which often gets laughed at, but some of his greatest work is where he straddles the edge between his traditional work, and his faith. That was the case in this song, which was pre-born again, but where he was slipping in that direction. This song contains the great line: "Oh, sister, am I not a brother to you And one deserving of affection? And is our purpose not the same on this earth To love and follow His direction?"

6. "Tangled Up In Blue"

A classic with which you can't go wrong.

 





Guest Post: Asset Valuation And Fed Policy: We’ve Seen This Movie Before

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by F.F.Wiley via Cyniconomics blog,

Everyone seems to have an opinion on asset valuation these days, even commentators who are normally quiet about such matters.  Some are seeing asset price bubbles, others are just on the lookout for bubbles, and still others wonder what all the fuss is about.

I’ll offer my two cents here – not to provide evidence of bubbles but to explain why I’d like to see the debate continue.

 

I’ll piggyback on Marginal Revolution’s Tyler Cowen, who reluctantly (it seems) entered the discussion this week with one of the more interesting and original contributions. Cowen shared this excerpt from Jesse Eisinger:

We are four years into the One Percent’s recovery. Now, we are in Round 3 of quantitative easing, the formal term for the Fed injecting hundreds of billions of dollars into the economy by purchasing longer-term assets like Treasury bonds and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac paper. What’s that giving us? Overvalued stocks. Private equity firms racing to buy up Arizona real estate. Junk bond yields at record lows. Ratings shopping on structured financial products.

 

These are dangerous signs of prebubble activity.

And he concluded (among other points):

I don’t find most predictive discussions of bubbles interesting, while admitting that such claims often will prove in a manner correct ex post. “OK, the price fell, but was it a bubble? I mean was there froth, like on your Frappucino?” Or to quote Eisinger, it might also have been “dangerous signs of prebubble activity” (what happens between the “prebubble” and the “bubble”? The “nascent bubble”? The “midbubble”? The “midnonbubble”?)

 

Good news and improving conditions may well bring more bubbles or greater likelihood of bubbles, but that is hardly reason to dislike good news and improving conditions.

Cowen makes ten points in total, many of which are hard to disagree with. But I’ll take a stab at a different kind of message, or at least I’ll try to connect his and Eisinger’s thoughts while adding a few of my own.

First, most people would agree on the following:

  1. The Fed is intentionally pushing investors into risky assets, such as stocks and high yield bonds, in search of a wealth effect.


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Econflict Deepens: Reinhart, Rogoff Strike Back At “Hyperbolic” Krugman

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Just when you thought the R&R debate was finished, it seems Paul Krugman’s latest “spectacularly uncivil behavior” pushed Reinhart and Rogoff too far. In what can only be described as the most eruditely worded of “fuck you”s, the pair go on the offensive at Krugman’s ongoing tete-a-tete. “You have attacked us in very personal terms, virtually non-stop…  Your characterization of our work and of our policy impact is selective and shallow.  It is deeply misleading about where we stand on the issues.  And we would respectfully submit, your logic and evidence on the policy substance is not nearly as compelling as you imply… That you disagree with our interpretation of the results is your prerogative.  Your thoroughly ignoring the subsequent literature… is troubling.   Perhaps, acknowledging the updated literature on drawbacks to high debt-would inconveniently undermine your attempt to make us a scapegoat for austerity.”

Finally, they exclaim, “we attach, as do many other mainstream economists, a somewhat higher weight on risks than you do, as debts of all measure – including old age liabilities, public debt, private debt and external debt – ascend into record territory.” This is not a conclusion based on one or two papers as Krugman sometimes seem to imply, but rather on a long-standing body of economic research and extensive historical experience about the risks of record high debt levels.

 

Via Carmen Reinhart’s blog,

Dear Paul:

 

Back in the late 1980s, you helped shape the concept of an emerging market debt overhang.  The financial crisis has laid bare the fact that the dividing line between emerging markets and advanced countries is not as crisp as once thought.  Indeed, this is a recurring theme of our 2009 book, This Time is Different:  Eight Centuries of Financial Folly.  Today, the growth bind of advanced countries in the periphery of the eurozone has a great deal in common with that of emerging market economies of the 1980s.

 

We admire your past scholarly work, which influences us to this day.  So it has been with deep disappointment that we have experienced your spectacularly uncivil behavior the past few weeks.  You have attacked us in very personal terms, virtually non-stop, in your New York Times column and blog posts.  Now you have doubled down in


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Grant Williams: “Do The Math!”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

In a masterclass of what is ‘really’ going on in the world (as opposed to what we are told/spoon-fed on a daily basis), Grant Williams (of Things That Make You Go Hhhmm infamy) provides a must-watch presentation. Starting from the premise (unusual in this day and age) that the laws of mathematics are inviolable (“if it makes no sense, it is nonsense”), the Aussie investment manager sets out his own set of philosophical ‘problems’ that the world of ‘markets’ seems incapable of grasping. In a chart-filled extravaganza, Williams ranges from “Problem 1: If the global economy is stalling, Europe is in recession, China is slowing and growth is seemingly impossible to generate, what are equity markets doing at all-time highs?” to “Problem 7: The Gold Price and The Price of Gold are mutually exclusive leaving the participant questioning everything Bob Pisani would have us believe warning in conclusion that gold is critical and “beware suppressed volatility.”


07:26 Williams’ Problem 1: If the global economy is stalling, Europe is in recession, China is slowing and growth is seemingly impossible to generate, what are equity markets doing at all-time highs?

 

 

16:24 Williams’ Problem 2: If Chinese manufacturing has stalled, demand for raw materials is slumping, imports and exports are declining, and Chinese power consumption is falling, how is China’s GDP growing at 7.7%

 

 

20:40 Williams Problem 3: France!?

 

 

33:21 Williams’ Problem 4: If honesty is the best policy, then is dishonest the second best policy?

 

33:25 Williams’ Problem 5: If there were no sponges living in the oceans, would the oceans be deeper?

 

33:30 Williams’ Problem 6: Paul Krugman? Really?

 

33:35 Williams’ Problem 7: The Gold Price and The Price of Gold are mutually exclusive

 

 

36:45 Summary

It’s a holiday weekend, grab the iPad (and 2 beers), sit in the lawn-chair and watch/listen – time extremely well spent…






 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

Congress is considering privacy legislation - be afraid

 

Congress is considering privacy legislation – be afraid

Courtesy of Jeff Sovern, St. John's University

Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis called privacy the “right to be let alone.” Perhaps Congress should give states trying to protect consumer data the same right.

For years, a gridlocked Congress ignored privacy, apart from occasionally scolding companies such as Equifax and Marriott after their major data breaches. In its absence, ...



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Zero Hedge

Key Events This Week: Trade War, EU Elections, Durables, PMIs And Fed Minutes

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Looking at this week's key events, Deutsche Bank's Craig Nicol writes that while the unpredictable nature of US-China trade developments will likely continue to be the main focus for markets again next week, we also have the European Parliament elections circus to look forward to as well as various survey reports including the flash May PMIs which may offer some insight into the impact of trade escalation on economic data. The FOMC and ECB meeting minutes are also due, along with a heavy calendar of Fed officials speaking.

The European Parliament elections will kick off next Thursday with voting continuing into the weekend across the continent, with results expected on Sunday. With the elections surrounded by internal and external challenges for the EU, members di...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Will S&P 500 Double Top Derail The Rally?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The rally off the December stock market lows has been strong, to say the least. The S&P 500 rallied 25 percent before hitting and testing the 2018 high.

The old highs proved to be formidable resistance and ushered in some volatility in May… and a 5 percent pullback.

In today’s 2-pack, we look at that resistance level – could that be a double top? We can see similar patterns develop on the S&P 500 Index and its Equal Weight counterpart.

Both indexes are testing short-term Fibonacci retracement levels of the recent decline at point (2).

What takes place here after potential double top highs will be important. Stay tuned...



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Insider Scoop

60 Biggest Movers From Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Gainers
  • Fastly, Inc. (NYSE: FSLY) shares jumped 50 percent to close at $23.99 on Friday. Fastly priced its 11.25 million share IPO at $16 per share.
  • Outlook Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: OTLK) shares climbed 37.3 percent to close at $2.10 on Friday after the stock rose over 68 percent Thursday following an Oppenheimer initiation at Outperform with a price target of $12.
  • Cray Inc. (NASDAQ: CRAY) shares rose 22.5 percent to close at $36.52 after Hewlett Packard Enterpri...


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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap May 18, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

China – U.S. trade talk continued to dominate the week.   A heavy selloff Monday was followed by 3 up days, with Friday moderately down.

On Monday, Chinese officials announced retaliatory tariffs against the U.S., hitting $60 billion in annual exports to China with new or expanded duties that could reach 25%.

Then on Wednesday:

The Trump administration plans to delay a decision on instituting new tariffs on car and auto part imports for up to six months, according to media reports.

...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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