Archive for 2013

Swing trading portfolio – week of June 17th, 2013

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

Swing trading virtual portfolio

 

One trade virtual portfolio

 

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.





The Jury: Still Deliberating

The Jury: Still Deliberating

Courtesy of Paul Price 

Jury image

Five weeks ago I wrote that the Thomson Reuters Insider Transaction Ratio was screaming ‘caution’. An excerpt of that May 11, 2013 column is shown below:

"A normally reliable short-term indicator is looking bearish.  

"Insiders, on balance, always sell more shares than they buy because they receive so much stock through employee compensation and bonus plans. The Thomson Reuters Insider Transaction Ratio considers it bullish when company officers and 5%+ holders, as a group, sell less than twelve times the dollar amount that insiders are buying. When that ratio exceeds 20:1, it is considered to be bearish, signaling widespread distribution.

"This indicator has proven fairly accurate looking out weeks to months. It is too volatile  to be useful for longer periods. I matched up the past 12-months signals to the movement of the SPY (S&P 500 ETF) to illustrate where it went right and wrong.

"The twin bearish insider selling peaks last September and October appeared to have provided valuable advanced warning of the sell-off that ended in mid-November. The short burst of intense insider selling that took place this past January ended up being a false negative. Five of the six major ‘buy’ signals worked out well.

Thomson Reuters Insider Trading Ratio May 10, 2013

"Both the SPY and Dow Jones Industrials closed at new all-time highs last week. Company officers have been active sellers. The Thomson Reuters Ratio is back in dangerously high territory. Will this be a good signal or a misleading one? Only time will tell."

*******

That extremely bearish signal turned out to be less than perfect.

The S&P 500 and the DJIA both moved higher for another seven or eight trading sessions before reversing trend. They have, however, gone sideways since the insider signal flashed the yellow caution light.

DJIA & SPY May 10, 2013 - Jun 14, 2013

What is the insider transaction ratio saying about the mid-June market? It has come back into neutral territory.

June 14, 2013    Insider Transaction Ratio

It appears that the last year’s signals have been more predictive on the bullish side than the bearish side.

Stay tuned for further updates as the remainder of 2013 unfolds.





Superman Joins a Union

Courtesy of Mish.

Inquiring minds may be wondering what would happen if the “Man of Steel” were forced to join a union. The following video explains.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com



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Entitlement America And The High Cost Of “Free”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Almost three years ago we first highlighted the real math behind the surging entitlement class that America has become. So why does a large portion of the population choose not to work when there are many jobs available? The answer is simple. If you can receive 2-3 times as much money from unemployment, disability, and/or welfare benefits (subsidized housing, food stamps, free cellphones, etc.) as you can from a temporary or part-time job, and live a life of leisure, why work? This is the ugly reality we illustrated just six months ago and the situation – amid what is apparently called a ‘recovery’ remains a depressingly real sign of the times. The political allure of free is so strong that an alarming number of people choose to become wards of the entitlement/welfare state rather than captain their own destiny. Indeed, while many are ‘proud’, 49% of American households now receive one or more government transfer benefits amounting to 18% of all personal income and a burden of $7,400 for every American – seemingly threatening the supposed self-reliance that has long characterized the American national psyche.

 

Via the Ludwig von Mises Institute,

Why does a large portion of the population choose not to work when there are many jobs available? The answer is simple. If you can receive 2-3 times as much money from unemployment, disability, and/or welfare benefits (subsidized housing, food stamps, free cellphones, etc.) as you can from a temporary or part-time job, and live a life of leisure, why work? In 2011, the U.S. government spent over $800 billion this “welfare,” exceeding expenditures on Social Security or Medicare.

In the Denver arena where Mr. Obama gave his DNC 2008 acceptance speech, a woman in the audience became overwhelmed by the speech and said that she no longer needed to worry if she could make her car or mortgage payments because he would take care of it for her. In Cleveland, a woman claimed that she was going to vote for President Obama again because he gave her a free cellphone (along with a litany of other entitlement giveaways). Before you growl, you should know that the free cellphone program was instated by President Bush in 2008 through the FCC’s Universal Service Fund. Fees for these “free” cellphones are paid…
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Prisoner’s Dilemma: Will Investors And The Fed Collaborate?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The recent market weakness (selling off in equity indices and widening in credit spreads) shares many elements of the previous dips this year, which should give bulls some comfort (the Italian- and Cyprus-led dips didn’t last very long). However, there are elements which are concerning – as Citi notes, positioning in long equity and credit positions are notably ‘long’, and how weak cash credit has been this time around. As Citi points out, investors and the Fed are trapped in a prisoner’s dilemma. Will everyone collaborate (investors hold to cash positions & dovish Fed) or betray (investors start unwinding cash positions & hawkish Fed)? The strategy each player follows will determine whether the weakness this time around is to be faded (like the previous ones this year) or not.

The following discussion – via Citi’s credit team – relates to ‘widening’ in credit spreads but is just as useful in considering the weakness in equity markets since the cap[ital structure arbitrage-led relationship between equity and credit as liabilities on the balance sheet of a ‘firm’ means that any disconnect cannot last long.

Via Citi,

The recent widening on the back of concerns about a “rates back-up” (and its potential to create substantial selling pressure across many asset classes) shares, at least on the surface, many of the characteristics of two widenings we’ve experienced this year: the “Italian”- and “Cypriot”-led widenings in the second half of February and March, respectively. In those two cases, the widening faded after one or two weeks.

This time around, the credit index has not started to tighten (rally yet)…

However, as we show below, positioning this time around seems more stretched than in previous widenings and cash credit has been much weaker than anytime this year. As we argued last week, we are at a pivot point, and we expect US yields (on the back of the Fed’s message next week) to give direction to the market.

(Upper pane – credit positioning is the most ‘net long’ since 2011… Lower pane – equity margin account debit balances highest ever)

 

In all the three widenings this year, the weakness has been led by synthetic products, with

(i) real money investors holding to their cash positions and hedging with synthetic instruments


continue reading





Prisoner’s Dilemma: Will Investors And The Fed Collaborate?”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The recent market weakness (selling off in equity indices and widening in credit spreads) shares many elements of the previous dips this year, which should give bulls some comfort (the Italian- and Cyprus-led dips didn’t last very long). However, there are elements which are concerning – as Citi notes, positioning in long equity and credit positions are notably ‘long’, and how weak cash credit has been this time around. As Citi points out, investors and the Fed are trapped in a prisoner’s dilemma. Will everyone collaborate (investors hold to cash positions & dovish Fed) or betray (investors start unwinding cash positions & hawkish Fed)? The strategy each player follows will determine whether the weakness this time around is to be faded (like the previous ones this year) or not.

The following discussion – via Citi’s credit team – relates to ‘widening’ in credit spreads but is just as useful in considering the weakness in equity markets since the cap[ital structure arbitrage-led relationship between equity and credit as liabilities on the balance sheet of a ‘firm’ means that any disconnect cannot last long.

Via Citi,

The recent widening on the back of concerns about a “rates back-up” (and its potential to create substantial selling pressure across many asset classes) shares, at least on the surface, many of the characteristics of two widenings we’ve experienced this year: the “Italian”- and “Cypriot”-led widenings in the second half of February and March, respectively. In those two cases, the widening faded after one or two weeks.

This time around, the credit index has not started to tighten (rally yet)…

However, as we show below, positioning this time around seems more stretched than in previous widenings and cash credit has been much weaker than anytime this year. As we argued last week, we are at a pivot point, and we expect US yields (on the back of the Fed’s message next week) to give direction to the market.

(Upper pane – credit positioning is the most ‘net long’ since 2011… Lower pane – equity margin account debit balances highest ever)

 

In all the three widenings this year, the weakness has been led by synthetic products, with

(i) real money investors holding to their cash positions and hedging with synthetic instruments


continue reading





Water Cannon And Tear Gas In Turkey: The Photo Exhibition

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Two weeks after the break out of protests in Turkey, often times violent, the local discontent is nowhere closer to resolution. In fact, it is getting worse, and is on its way to converge with the “resolutions” adopted in its neighbor Greece following news that two Turkish union federations said on Sunday they would stage a one-day nationwide strike on Monday in protest at the forced eviction by riot police of hundreds of anti-government demonstrators from an Istanbul park. From Reuters: “The Confederation of Public Workers’ Unions (KESK), which has some 240,000 members in 11 unions, and the Confederation of Revolutionary Trade Unions (DISK) announced the strike in a joint statement. Three other groups representing doctors, engineers and dentists will also join the action, it said.”

And so “the economy gets it” until the politicians respond to the protestors in a satisfactory fashion, which may be a problem, because just like in the “Occupy XXX” movement in the US, nobody is exactly sure just what the demands are.

Regardless, the local protests, now accompanied daily by high pressure water cannon and constant tear gas make for some spectacular stills, such as the following series of photos over the weekend from Istanbul and Ankara.

A protester is attacked by water cannon during crowds in Kizilay square in central Ankara, June 16, 2013.

 

People take cover from water cannons during a protest at Kizilay square in central Ankara, June 16, 2013.

 

A protester is sprayed by a police water cannon during a demonstration at Taksim Square in Istanbul June 16, 2013.

 

A protester is being sprayed by the police’s water cannon during a demonstration at Kizilay square in central Ankara June 16, 2013.

 

Riot police use a water cannon to disperse anti-government protesters at Taksim square in central Istanbul June 15, 2013.

 

Protesters are attacked by police water cannon at the entrance Gezi Park near Istanbul’s Taksim square June 15, 2013.

 

A woman is attacked by water cannon during protests in Kizilay square in central Ankara, June 16, 2013.

 

A riot policeman orders protesters to evacuate Gezi Park near Istanbul’s Taksim square June 15, 2013.

 

Protesters are attacked by police water cannon next
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Guest Post: The Unknown Unknowns And Survivor Bias

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

Survivorship bias helps us understand why success stories are not what actually helps us succeed.

 
Former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld is famous for uttering a koan-like description of the epistomological ambiguity of human experience:
There are known knowns; there are things we know that we know.
 
There are known unknowns; that is to say, there are things that we now know we don't know.
 
But there are also unknown unknowns – there are things we do not know we don’t know.
(Interestingly, it appears Rumsfeld did not pen the koan himself; correspondent J.S.S. noted that the original source may be Landmark Education of Seattle, Washington.)
 
I recently read two fascinating accounts of why we have such a difficult time knowing what we don't know: it's called survivor bias, and what that means is we only get information from the survivors, not those who perished and vanished from the records.
 
A mid-list author recently explained how listening to the handful of authors who make it big financially is completely misleading: Survivorship bias: why 90% of the advice about writing is BS right now.
 
Here's how this works: big-bucks Author Z says, here are the 10 steps you need to take to become as successful as me. The list always mentions perseverance, being nice to your readers, writing 1,000 words a day and so on.
 
The 99.9% of writers/authors who make less than $10,000 a year


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Don’t Fear the Taper

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by ilene.

Don’t Fear the Taper

Screen Shot 2013-06-15 at 3.48.24 PMIn this week’s newsletter, we present reasons for being long stocks and discuss the “Taper.” Click on link: Don’t Fear the Taper, 6-14-13.

Quantitative easing (QE) programs, courtesy of the Federal Reserve, have pushed cash into Primary Dealer accounts at the fastest rate in history. This has been massively bullish for equities over the past four years, as the Primary Dealers used some of that cash to bid up equity prices. This will likely continue until the Fed significantly curtails or discontinues its QE operations. 

US stock indices have been marking time during the past four weeks gauging “talk” about whether Chairman Ben Bernanke will slow down his printing presses. Notwithstanding the rumors, we doubt that QE tapering is on the horizon.

In our view, unless the Fed stops funneling money to the Primary Dealers, which we deem doubtful, pullbacks in stock prices are likely temporary pauses along an upward path. Therefore, in both of our Virtual Portfolios (Value and Put Selling), we are remaining long and unhedged.

Screen Shot 2013-06-12 at 6.59.39 PM

The Fed is Unlikely to Taper

America’s national debt now runs approximately $16.5 trillion. President Obama use his power to hold rates down because the cost of higher debt service would devastate his political agenda. 

Bernanke does Washington’s bidding so he is probably just ‘talking down’ market enthusiasm by leaking news of a coming ‘taper.’ In this fashion, he uses fear of reduced QE to contain equity prices without actually changing the Fed’s policy.

During the fiscal cliff debate in December 2012, people assumed tax rates would be much higher in following years. That precipitated an enormous amount of accelerated income and dividend payments that would have been made in 2013. Because of the higher income booked in Q4 2012, estimated tax payments due January 15, 2013, soared. This reduced the size of the expected Q1 deficit. 

Bernanke’s primary mission is to monetize the debt created by federal budgets that far exceed revenues. We see no way for the Fed to reverse course on QE regardless of the whispers to the contrary. 

The Fed has painted itself into a corner and there is no way to unwind the QE trade without debt service costs eating everyone alive. Unwinding would cause interest rates on U.S. sovereign debt to soar, because no one would buy debt at interest rates…
continue reading





NSA, UK Spied On Politicians, Intercepted Emails, Eavesdropped On Russian President’s Phone Calls

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The espionage scandal that keeps on giving has released its latest installment, once more courtesy of the Guardian, which on the eve of tomorrow’s starting G-8 meeting reveals that foreign politicians and officials who took part in two G-20 summit meetings in London in 2009 had their computers monitored, their phone calls intercepted, and fake internet cafes were set up on the instructions of the British Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ), the sister organization to the US NSA.

Naturally, it wasn’t just the GCHQ – according to the Guardian, during the 2009 G-20 meeting there was an NSA attempt to eavesdrop on then-Russian leader, Dmitry Medvedev, as his phone calls passed through satellite links to Moscow.

And while broad espionage allegations can be deflected by pretending by the rhetoric-endowed and teleprompter-aided that only terrorist threats were targeted, it will be very difficult to explain why the national information super spooks used every trick of the trade to spy on the so-called leaders of the developed world.

The disclosure raises new questions about the boundaries of surveillance by GCHQ and its American sister organisation, the National Security Agency, whose access to phone records and internet data has been defended as necessary in the fight against terrorism and serious crime. The G20 spying appears to have been organised for the more mundane purpose of securing an advantage in meetings. Named targets include long-standing allies such as South Africa and Turkey.

And like that, one more conspiracy theory is relegated to the “fact” bin, as those using the “tin foil, crack-pot conspiracy theorists” fallback, are slowly becoming the biggest laughing stock in town.

So who gave the green light for this blatant spying operation, which assuredly takes place at every meeting of the world’s leading political (and other) dignitaries? Why that supreme gold top-tick timer himself, Gordon Brown:

There have often been rumours of this kind of espionage at international conferences, but it is highly unusual for hard evidence to confirm it and spell out the detail. The evidence is contained in documents – classified as top secret – which were uncovered by the NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden and seen by the Guardian. They reveal that during G20 meetings


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Phil's Favorites

Trump and the problem with pardons

 

Trump and the problem with pardons

Courtesy of Andrew Bell, Indiana University

As a veteran, I was astonished by the recent news that President Trump may be considering pardons for U.S. military members accused or convicted of war crimes. But as a scholar who studies the U.S. military and combat ethics, I understand even more clearly the harmful long-term impact such pardons can have on the military.

My researc...



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Zero Hedge

"You've Been Had": Elon Musk's Grand Hyperloop Vision Debunked As "Scam"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

It looks as though everybody, including the media, is starting to understand that Elon Musk's once grandiose "Hyperloop" idea, to be built by The Boring Company, isn't the futuristic game changer that it was pitched as. In fact, it's looking more and more like a very rudimentary idea that's been around for decades: a car in a tunnel. 

And people are catching on that this is not what Musk repeatedly talked about when baffling the public with bullshit publicly describing the idea of a Hyperloop. Over the weekend, the ...



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Insider Scoop

Jefferies Sees 60-Percent Upside In Aphria Shares, Says Buy The Dip

Courtesy of Benzinga.

After a red-hot start to 2019, Canadian cannabis producer Aphria Inc (NYSE: APHA) has run out of steam, tumbling more than 31 percent in the past three months.

Despite the recent weakness, one Wall Street analyst said Friday that the stock has 30-percent upside potential. 

The Analyst

Jefferies analyst ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...



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Chart School

Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!


Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

This is a classic! ha!







Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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