Archive for 2013

Comment by flipspiceland

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  1. flipspiceland
    July 18th, 2010 at 12:28 pm
    Thank you Mr. Reich.  One hopes that this will find its way to ears of every voter in the country who will then throw that bastards out, every single one of them who voted for this nonsense.
    And thank you again for outing Lord Blankfein and his control of the financial purse strings of every one with a dollar in their pockets.  Truly this man needs to be taken out back to the wood shed and unspeakable things done to him.







Gauging Investor Sentiment with Twitter: New Update

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.


The Downside Hedge Twitter Sentiment indicator for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) continues to confirm the uptrend in the market. However, it is starting to diverge on a daily basis. This divergence comes as a result of traders doubting SPX can continue to rally at the same pace. The Twitter stream was filled with bearish tweets early in the week, but the comments by Ben Bernanke on Wednesday moved many of the bears to anger and the rest to capitulation. The bulls are showing more surprise than excitement. They liked the move, but didn’t expect the strength. There were a lot of tweets mentioning short covering, which we consider bullish, but prefer to see them near market lows rather than highs.

Smoothed sentiment is just below the highest levels it’s ever printed. As long time readers know, this isn’t a contrary indicator suggesting that the market should fall. Instead, it is confirming the move to new highs. Previous high readings in smoothed sentiment resulted in several weeks of higher prices. For warning that the market might consolidate we look first for smoothed sentiment to paint a negative divergence from price, then a break of its prevailing (confirming) up trend line.

It is interesting to note that the reconfirmation of the larger trend (or buy signal) in early June was not negated by a break of the prevailing up trend line. The perceived hawkish comments by Ben Bernanke created a large downward move in price that was not confirmed with persistent negative sentiment. This occurred due to the positive tweets mentioning other Fed officials trying to calm fears in the face of falling prices. This is reflected in daily sentiment painting one sharply negative reading then quickly moving higher (even as price fell for a few more days).

I suspect that this was no solace to traders (on the long side) as it would have been difficult hold short term positions in the face of such sharp selling. As longer term investors, it was one arrow in our quiver that gave us a bit more confidence to wait patiently for more information rather than making hasty adjustments to our portfolios. We like to see several indicators confirming moves…
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The Reason For China’s Epic 1 Trillion Yuan Deleveraging: The Biggest Housing Bubble Ever

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Those reading Bloomberg stories tonight may be surprised to find for the first time the mainstream media attempts to quantify the epic deleveraging that China – the economy which has only grown in the past decade due to constant and unprecedented credit injection – has decided to undergo in numeric terms in order to forcibly reallocate capital where it deserves to be allocated.

To wit: “China’s money-market cash squeeze is likely to reduce credit growth this year by 750 billion yuan ($122 billion), an amount equivalent to the size of Vietnam’s economy, according to a Bloomberg News survey. The number is the median estimate of 15 analysts, whose projections last week ranged from cuts of 20 billion yuan to 3 trillion yuan. The majority of respondents also said they approve of the government’s handling of the credit crunch and said the episode reinforces their expectations for policy reforms such as loosening controls on interest rates.” We shall see how much they approve when the massive deleveraging results in a 3% GDP print as we warned previously, crushing their year end bonuses in the process.

Of course, those who read Bloomberg tonight and who read Zero Hedge two weeks ago, already know just how big the Chinese deleveraging will be (in an optimistic case). On June 23 we said:

The country is about to undergo an unprecedented deleveraging that could amount to over CNY1 trillion in order to force reallocate capital in a more efficient basis.

That’s right: a massive deleveraging coming dead ahead in China just in time to shock the market still reeling from the threat of the Fed’s tapering. And it is not as if China needs to be spooked any more: “The mood remained jittery at the weekend. When a technical glitch caused by a long-planned software upgrade at Industrial and Commercial Bank of China made cash withdrawals impossible for almost one hour at the bank’s ATMs, many consumers fretted that one of the biggest state lenders was in trouble.” Maybe not today, but force deleverage a few hundred billion, and it sure will be.

 

It also means that there will be no respite for short-term funding, which while maybe not suffering from lack of money, it


continue reading





The Reason For China’s Epic 1 Trillion Yuan Deleveraging: The Biggest Housing Bubble In History

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Those reading Bloomberg stories tonight may be surprised to find for the first time the mainstream media attempts to quantify the epic deleveraging that China – the economy which has only grown in the past decade due to constant and unprecedented credit injection – has decided to undergo in numeric terms in order to forcibly reallocate capital where it deserves to be allocated.

To wit: “China’s money-market cash squeeze is likely to reduce credit growth this year by 750 billion yuan ($122 billion), an amount equivalent to the size of Vietnam’s economy, according to a Bloomberg News survey. The number is the median estimate of 15 analysts, whose projections last week ranged from cuts of 20 billion yuan to 3 trillion yuan. The majority of respondents also said they approve of the government’s handling of the credit crunch and said the episode reinforces their expectations for policy reforms such as loosening controls on interest rates.” We shall see how much they approve when the massive deleveraging results in a 3% GDP print as we warned previously, crushing their year end bonuses in the process.

Of course, those who read Bloomberg tonight and who read Zero Hedge two weeks ago, already know just how big the Chinese deleveraging will be (in an optimistic case). On June 23 we said:

The country is about to undergo an unprecedented deleveraging that could amount to over CNY1 trillion in order to force reallocate capital in a more efficient basis.

That’s right: a massive deleveraging coming dead ahead in China just in time to shock the market still reeling from the threat of the Fed’s tapering. And it is not as if China needs to be spooked any more: “The mood remained jittery at the weekend. When a technical glitch caused by a long-planned software upgrade at Industrial and Commercial Bank of China made cash withdrawals impossible for almost one hour at the bank’s ATMs, many consumers fretted that one of the biggest state lenders was in trouble.” Maybe not today, but force deleverage a few hundred billion, and it sure will be.

 

It also means that there will be no respite for short-term funding, which while maybe not suffering from lack of money, it


continue reading





Comment by flipspiceland

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  1. flipspiceland
    April 3rd, 2012 at 5:41 pm
    Then Priceline should be on the $1,000 bill since it seems headed there faster and with less legitimacy than AAPL.
    Where's the balance?







What Germany Thinks Of “The Biggest Bugging Scandal In History”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Having taken the US, Hong Kong, Russia, Europe and of course Latin America by storm, Snowden’s revelations are now focusing on the symbiotic relationship between the NSA and Germany’s (very experienced) secret services.

According to an interview that will be published in this week’s edition of Spiegel, “American intelligence agency whistleblower Edward Snowden criticizes the methods and power of the National Security Agency. Snowden said the NSA people are “in bed together with the Germans.” He added that the NSA’s “Foreign Affairs Directorate” is responsible for partnerships with other countries. The partnerships are organized in a way that authorities in other countries can “insulate their political leaders from the backlash” in the event it becomes public “how grievously they’re violating global privacy.” Telecommunications companies partner with the NSA and people are “normally selected for targeting” based on their “Facebook or webmail content.”

In other words, more of the same everywhere that “developed” people are “hated for their freedoms” (sic).

So how does Germany – which unlike the US, has had extensive historic experience with assorted iterations of secret police, first the Gestapo then Stazi – react? The following opinion piece also from Spiegel exposes how different, and also how familiar, the German and US responses to the “the biggest bugging scandal in history” truly are.

From Jan Fleischhauer of Spiegel:

Having experienced two dictatorships with notoriously effective intelligence systems, Germans are furious about NSA eavesdropping. Now they want to put even stricter rules in place — but without paying the necessary price.

So maybe I’m not in the best position to comment on the NSA spying scandal. Ten days ago, I traveled to the United States to stay in a vacation home on the East Coast. “As a patriot, I find that traveling to America has become unacceptable,” a colleague of mine texted me on Monday. In my own defense, I can only say that the scope of the scandal could not have been foreseen when I began my journey.

Since then, however, one has much to fret about. If I understand things correctly, the Americans are in the fast lane to setting up a state of hyper-surveillance in Europe ruled over by data dictator Barack Obama. And all…
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Citi: “No Gold Company… Will Generate Free Cash Flow At Current Gold Prices”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

After updating their precious metals’ company cost curve, Citi’s ominous warning that, “a combination of rising unit costs (15% yoy), sustained high capital budgets and a falling gold price have resulted in a fast contraction in margins – so much that no gold company under our coverage will generate Free Cash Flow at spot gold.”

 

 

Via Citi,

Companies are trying to adjust by cutting capex, exploration and corporate costs. But we also notice that most of the global gold cost curve is burning cash at spot levels. Further cuts are needed in the coming 12 months to make ends meet.

 

We view this as a return to normal for global gold equities. Given the ‘price taker’ nature of the industry, the next decade will see high-cost asset disposals, reduced capital budgets, lower exploration expenditure and balance sheet recapitalisation as companies try to survive in a lower gold price environment…

Or,

…as China seems to be showing the world, we will see supply reductions occurring at the same time as the rolling over of ‘peak suppression’ of the gold price and the precious metal will realize its real fiat-numeraire-based value.





Everything You Wanted to Know about Spying … But Were Afraid to Ask

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by George Washington.

If you've been too busy to keep up with the spying scandal, here's an overview:

Top constitutional experts say that Obama is worse than Nixon … and the Stasi East Germans





The World According to Investors

The World According to Investors

Courtesy of 

world investors

 

Read Also: The Best of TRB

via The Reformed Broker.





Guest Post: Bugging Out of the D.C. Burbs

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Cognitive Dissonance.

Guest Post: Bugging Out of the D.C. Burbs

by

Mrs. Cog

 

(And now a few words from my better half on creating a lifestyle change we can live with. – Cognitive Dissonance)

 

If there is one thing I dramatically misjudged during the great looting of the past five years, it has been the depth of the bag of tricks the banksters and politicians could use to perpetuate the game. How many times have we said in the threads here at Zero Hedge “This is it. Cue the deer Tyler“? We fall for it again and again. The dungeon masters are so artful in their game to pit us against each other simply because it works. If we are focused on “them” we are not focused on “us.” Whether it is them at the NSA or the perceived enemies of the state, the state itself, or the crooks at 33 Liberty, our angry energy is collected and dispelled in ranting threads which are largely unproductive at bringing about any real change. In the end, we can only change ourselves. I think self reliance is perhaps the most important act of revolutionary change available.

Whether change comes roaring into our lives express freight train style via collapse or as a crumbling away of the periphery of what we thought made our individual world stable, the leading edge of the storm is here. Change is here whether we like it or not. Options are still available, but it is getting harder and harder to maneuver. Cog and I have elected to completely change our lifestyle so that we can at least try to deflect or redirect the nature of the change rather than waiting for it to be forced upon us.

After spending many months choosing the criteria we would use to best position our family for the future, there were several discoveries. There is no shortage of cheaply priced homes for sale in very rural areas. Although it is not “the norm” yet, other city folks are bugging out (permanently) to live in the sticks. Within a week of putting our new home under contract there were two other contingent cash offers on it. We had considered waiting to buy because the prices would be dropping dramatically when that shadow…
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ValueWalk

#1 Performing Global Macro Hedge Fund Sees More Shorts Opportunities Ahead As China Bursts

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Crescat Global Macro Fund update to investors on 1/19/2019

Crescat Global Macro Fund and Crescat Long/Short fund delivered strong returns for both December and full year 2018 in a difficult market. Based on ...



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Zero Hedge

Johns Hopkins, Bristol-Myers Face $1 Billion Suit For Infecting Guatemalan Hookers With Syphilis 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A federal judge in Maryland said Johns Hopkins University, pharmaceutical company Bristol-Myers Squibb and the Rockefeller Foundation must face a $1 billion lawsuit over their roles in a top-secret program in the 1940s ran by the US government that injected hundreds of Guatemalans with syphilis, reported Reuters.

Several doctors from Hopkins an...



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Phil's Favorites

Divisive economics

 

Guest author David Brin — scientist, technology consultant, best-selling author and futurist — explores the records of Democrats and Republicans on the US economy in the following post. For David's latest posts, visit the CONTRARY BRIN blog. For his books and short stories, visit his web...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stock declines did not break 9-year support, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We often hear “Stocks take an escalator up and an elevator down!” No doubt stocks did experience a swift decline from the September highs to the Christmas eve lows. Looks like the “elevator” part of the phrase came true as 2018 was coming to an end.

The first part of the “stocks take an escalator up” seems to still be in play as well despite the swift decline of late.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- All of these indices hit long-term rising support on Christmas Eve at each (1), where support held and rallies have followed.

If you find long-term perspectives helpf...



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Digital Currencies

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

 

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

Blockchain technologies can empower people by allowing them more control over their user data. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ajay Kumar Shrestha, University of Saskatchewan

Blockchain has already proven its huge influence on the financial world with its first application in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It might not be long before its impact is felt everywhere.

Blockchain is a secure chain of digital records that exist on multiple computers simultaneously so no record can be erased or falsified. The...



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Insider Scoop

Cars.com Explores Strategic Alternatives, Analyst Sees Possible Sale Price Around $30 Per Share

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related 44 Biggest Movers From Yesterday 38 Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Mid-Day Session ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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