Archive for 2013

Gauging Investor Sentiment with Twitter: New Update

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.


The Downside Hedge Twitter Sentiment indicator for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) stayed in negative territory all of last week. Even the 19 point rally in SPX on Wednesday couldn’t push the daily indicator positive. A large number of traders just don’t trust this market and are looking for price points to short rather than adding longs. Over the past week the volume and intensity of language in tweets has risen substantially. On Thursday our daily indicator recorded its highest volume and intensity level ever. That day the market closed flat and the daily indicator came in at nearly zero. The bulls and bears are engaged in a battle royal. When the winner emerges, we suspect it will be with a large move in price.

Currently the bears have the sentiment advantage, but the bulls continue to press the price advantage. Sentiment gave its first warning on January 29th, but the bears haven’t been able to keep price down. We’ve had two negative initiation thrusts that haven’t resulted in price falling over the next several days. This tells us that many market participants are skittish, but others are buying into any weakness or panic.

Twitter support and resistance levels expanded last week with Monday bringing a few calls for 1450 on SPX. The rally on Wednesday brought renewed calls for 1550 above the market. We mentioned in our previous sentiment update that the market would “experience some headwinds and short selling if it gets into the 1525 or 1530 area” on SPX. This coming week we expect more of the same. However, a break above that level will be met with short covering, which could quickly take SPX to 1550. Our current support levels are 1500, 1470, and 1450. Our resistance levels are 1525 to 1530 and 1550.

We’ve added a Twitter Sentiment Sector Rotation chart to Downside Hedge. It is currently suggesting that the market could move higher. Over the past few weeks it has moved away from its bearish reading where technology, basic materials, and industrials were out of favor and the defensive sectors were showing positive sentiment readings. Currently, the defensive sectors are showing sentiment weakness and all others…
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EU Doesn’t Like Its Forecasts, So It Removes Them From Its Site

Courtesy of Mish.

With thanks to Yogi Berra, making predictions is hard, especially about the future. And with constantly revised forecasts for the EU, the European Commission decides the safe safe thing to do is Eliminate Forecasts for 2015.

Via Google Translate from El Economista …

This morning you could see the data for 2012, 2103, 2014 and 2015, but now can only see the figures from 2011 to 2014 and there is no trace of the catastrophic 2015 numbers (see the screenshots attached below).

Although there is no official communication in one way or another, hypothetically could be a real blunder produced after being released by mistake, or any type of computer failure, a former forecasts for 2012 under the 2015 column.’s say, that would have mistakenly announced as 2015 forecast estimates released earlier this year to last year.

Forecasts of Discord

Those European Commission forecasts envisage a general improvement in economic scenario for 2014. However, estimates for 2015, this morning hidden behind an interactive graphic , pointed for a few hours, before being erased-a brutal relapse. In fact, Germany would grow 2% in 2014 to only 0.8% in 2015, would UK from 1.9% to 0.3%, France 1.2% and Spain 0.2% from 0.8% to -1.4%.

Sooner or Later

El Economista has some interesting snapshots of the removed estimates. To be completely fair, the original posting may have been a simple mistake.

Regardless, I suggest the EU forecast for 2014 is too optimistic.

Will the EU 2014 estimates be revised lower as well? If not soon, then expect revisions later, with France leading the way lower.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com



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Ron Paul: “When They Came For The Raw Milk Drinkers…”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

From Ron Paul

When They Came For The Raw Milk Drinkers…

While I oppose most gun control proposals, there is one group of Americans I do believe should be disarmed: federal agents. The use of force by federal agents to enforce unjust and unconstitutional laws is one of the major, albeit overlooked, threats to liberty. Too often Americans are victimized by government force simply for engaging in commercial transactions disproved of by Congress and the federal bureaucracy.

For example, the offices of Rawesome Foods in Venice, California, have been repeatedly raided by armed federal and state agents, and Rawesome’s founder, 65-year old James Stewart, has been imprisoned. What heinous crime justified this action? Rawesome sold unpasteurized (raw) milk and cheese to willing customers – in a state where raw milk is legal! You cannot even drink milk from a cow without a federal permit!

This is hardly the only case of federal agents using force against those who would dare meet consumer demand for raw milk. In 2011 armed agents of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) raided the business of Pennsylvanian Amish farmer Dan Allgyer. Federal agents wasted a whole year and who knows how many millions of our tax dollars posing as customers in order to stop Allgyer from selling his raw milk to willing customers.

The use of force against individuals making choices not approved of by the political elite does not just stop with raw milk. The Natural News website has documented numerous accounts of federal persecution, including armed raids, of health food stores and alternative medical practitioners.

Federal bureaucrats are also using force to crack down on the makers of gold coins for fear that people may use these coins as an alternative to the Federal Reserve’s fiat currency. Bernard von NotHaus, the founder of Liberty Dollars, is currently awaiting sentencing on federal counterfeiting charges — even though Mr. von NotHaus took steps to ensure his coins where not used as “legal tender.”

Yet, the federal government was so concerned over the possibility that Mr. von NotHaus’s customers might use his coins in regular day-to-day commerce they actually labeled Mr. von NotHaus a “terrorist.”

These type of police state tactics used against, among others, raw milk producers, alternative health providers, and gold coin dealers is justified by the paternalistic…
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The Men Who Built America: Remembering The Gilded Age Part 2

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Continuing to look back at what once was. Following Part 1′s emergence from the civil war and the age of enlightenment, In Part 2 of the 4 part History Channel series, America continues to recover from the Civil War, undertaking the largest building phase of the country s history. While much of the growth is driven by railroads and oil, it’s built using steel. From the Civil War to the Great Depression and World War I, for better or worse; for richer or poorer, in ethical and societal sickness or health; these five men – John D. Rockefeller, Cornelius Vanderbilt, Andrew Carnegie, Henry Ford and J.P. Morgan – led the way.

 





China HSBC PMI Misses, Prints At Four Month Low

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While the rest of the world was blissfully enjoying its latest reflation experiment, one country that has hardly been quite as ecstatic about all the blistering free money entering its real estate market (if not so much the Shanghai Composite) still warm off the presses of the G-7 central banks, has been China. Because China knows very well that while in the rest of the world, free money enters the stock market first and lingers there, in China the line between the reflating house market and the price of hogs – that all critical commodity needed to preserve social stability – is very thin. As a result, last week China withdrew a record CNY900 billion out of the repo market – the first such liquidity pull in eight months. This move had one purpose only – to telegraph to the rest of the world that the nation, whose central bank has patiently stayed quiet during the recent balance sheet expansion euphoria, will no longer sit idly by as hot money lift every real estate offer in China. Moments ago we got the second sign that China is less than happy with the reflating status quo, when the HSBC Flash PMI index for February missed expectations of a 52.2 print by a big margin, instead dropping from the final January print of 52.3 to just barely above contraction territory, or 50.4. This was the lowest print in the past four months, or just when the PMI data turned from contracting to expanding in November of last year.

While we won’t know for sure if it is officially China’s stance that the rest of the central bankers must back off now until the other PMI number is released, the official Chinese sourced one, it is quite likely that the official February print will be just as weak if not more. Recall that as the chart below shows, January official PMI already posted not only a major miss to expectations, but a decline. As such today’s HSBC drop merely cemented what the official data was already telegraphing.

If indeed the official PMI print comes well below expectations, or is even negative, then just like in 2011, the reflation party is slowly but surely ending, as the world’s marginal economy – not only in terms of…
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Not Done Rising, But Night Will Come

Read: MarketShadows February 24 2013 Newsletter: Not Done Rising, But Night Will Come 

This week:

Event Horizons: Not Done Rising. Market's going up, till the end of April. Then we'll reassess. 

Market Forces: Lee Adler's composite liquidity indicator keeps going higher: Cis Bam! Fed Drives Massive Liquidity Surge, Treasury Says Thank You Ma’am.
 
Screen-Shot-2013-02-21-at-2.56.48-AM (1)
 
Value Exploration: Paul Price's Virtual Value Portfolio (stocks) is almost filled up, so we sold some PUTS in our Virtual Put Selling Portfolio.
 
depositstoloans




Quadrocopter Pole Acrobatics

Courtesy of Mish.

Here is an interesting video that came my way via reader “Nino”. It’s a look at some rather amazing technology that is developing right now, and I suspect very few are aware of it.

Link if video does not play: Quadrocopter Pole Acrobatics

The video shows a quadrocopter capable of dynamically balancing an inverted pendulum (a stick weighted at the bottom), but also flipping the stick to another quadrocopter that determines the optimal position to catch it without losing balance.

Technology marches on whether anyone is aware or not. People do become aware as markets for technology develop.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com



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Yet Another Unintended Central Planning Consequence: Running To Stand Still

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Via Louis-Vincent Gave of GK Research (A Gavekal Company),

Lemmings And The Quandary of Negative Real Rates

For most portfolio managers, investable assets can be thought of as sitting somewhere on the risk-return curve shown below. Of course, depending on valuations at a particular point in time, positioning in the economic cycle, or overall geopolitical risks, some of the relative positions may change. But over long periods, investable assets have tended to display the risk-reward characteristics highlighted by the efficient frontier below.

Now in recent decades, investors could assume that across the length of an economic cycle, almost all investments would provide a positive real return. Diversification across the curve made ample sense, and this is precisely what happened: looking at the stock of global assets, one sees that out of an estimated $209trn in global financial assets (excluding real estate), $52trn sits in equity with $45trn in government debt, $65trn in loans (possibly a good chunk of which finances real estate), and $46trn in corporate debt. In other words, roughly one quarter of the world’s financial assets are in equity (on the top-right hand of the risk-return curve) with three quarters in debt (at the bottom left of the curve). This asset mix brings us to the policies followed today by most Western central banks of guaranteeing negative real rates for as long as the eye can see. This policy of negative real rates has an obvious goal: push out investors from the bottom left of the curve to the top right, thereby boosting animal spirits, creating jobs, and returning Western economies to a more solid growth environment. But could these policies suffer from the law of unintended consequences?

If we look at the risk-return curve today it is obvious that 75% of global financial assets are now locking in real losses, unless of course, inflation collapses and deflation takes hold in the major economies. Consider a 2 year treasury bond yielding 0.25% as an example. With inflation running at around 1.7%, anyone buying such an instrument is locking in a -1.5% real capital loss for the next two years. The same argument can be made for Germany where yields are even lower than in the US, even if inflation is running at the same pace (and likely to accelerate further), or…
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The Thinking, Drinking, And Tweeting Man’s Guide To The Oscars

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

From the youngest to the oldest nominee for best actress (Quvenzhane Wallis – 9 and Emmanuelle Riva – 85) to the relative money gambled on the outcomes, we thought it only appropriate to provide some education and information as this evening's self-congratulatory mutual masturbation begins. With TED scoring well in social media, hopes of an Angelina Jolie thigh-show high, and enough communal drinking-game directions to sink Seth MacFarlane, we hope this provides a little levity as the seriousness of Daniel Day-Lewis' method overwhelms.

 

The History of the Oscars…

 

 

The Oscars vs The Superbowl (from 2010)… (click image for large version)

 

And if social media was deciding (click image for visual via The UK's Daily Mirror)…

 

And finally, Esquire's always-classy drinking game

Drinking communally is one of the great innovations of the modern world. The Oscars, and awards-shows in general, are not. Filled with pomp, circumstance, and self-importance, they are only made bearable by the moments that really remind us of what the movies are all about — nostalgia, storytelling, honoring artists you know have worked hard and haven't sold their souls. For the rest, well, we'll get through it together. Here are some Eat Like a Man-approved beverages to pair with your Best Picture nominees of choice and a few easy rules for participation.*

Drink this if you're rooting for…

Take a sip if…

  • The camera cuts to someone Seth MacFarlane just insulted.
  • Daniel Day-Lewis speaks.
  • You find yourself admiring Ben Affleck's beard.
  • You find yourself admiring Dustin Hoffman's beard.
  • You find yourself admiring Joaquin Phoenix's beard.
  • You find yourself admiring Jennifer Lawrence.
  • Tom Cruise bares his


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“No Rotation” – Fund Flows Lag Returns, Not Lead

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

There is a simple reason why the real money (as opposed to fast money tweakers) has been far less excited about the domestic equity fund inflows than the financial media and their sponsoring commission-takers would suggest. The reason is – as Goldman shows empirically, not anecdotally – fund flows ‘lag’ performance, ‘not lead’! As we have noted previously, the great rotation myth is simply that – a unicorn-like belief that the investing public will sell down their bond portfolios (high-yield, investment-grade, and sovereign) to stake their future on stocks – when the reality is the flows (which are not rotating to stocks ‘net’ anyway) simply reflect the sheep-like herding of performance-chasing index-huggers hoping to beat the greater fool. There always has to be someone left holding the bag…

 

 

Table: Goldman Sachs





 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Auto Shares Surge As Fiat, Renault Confirm Merger Talks

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

With President Trump in Japan for a state visit and most of Europe headed to the polls to vote in the quinquennial EU Parliamentary elections, there was enough news to keep market watchers occupied during what was supposed to be a quiet holiday weekend in the US. 

But on top of these political headlines, on Saturday afternoon, the news broke that Italian-American carmaker Fiat Chrysler had approached France's Renault with a merger proposal that would leave the shareholders of each carmaker with half of the combined company, in a tie-up that would create the world's third-largest au...



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Phil's Favorites

Trump and the problem with pardons

 

Trump and the problem with pardons

Courtesy of Andrew Bell, Indiana University

As a veteran, I was astonished by the recent news that President Trump may be considering pardons for U.S. military members accused or convicted of war crimes. But as a scholar who studies the U.S. military and combat ethics, I understand even more clearly the harmful long-term impact such pardons can have on the military.

My researc...



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Insider Scoop

Jefferies Sees 60-Percent Upside In Aphria Shares, Says Buy The Dip

Courtesy of Benzinga.

After a red-hot start to 2019, Canadian cannabis producer Aphria Inc (NYSE: APHA) has run out of steam, tumbling more than 31 percent in the past three months.

Despite the recent weakness, one Wall Street analyst said Friday that the stock has 30-percent upside potential. 

The Analyst

Jefferies analyst ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...



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Chart School

Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!


Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

This is a classic! ha!







Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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