Archive for 2013

Gauging Investor Sentiment with Twitter: New Update

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.


The Downside Hedge Twitter Sentiment indicator for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) stayed in negative territory all of last week. Even the 19 point rally in SPX on Wednesday couldn’t push the daily indicator positive. A large number of traders just don’t trust this market and are looking for price points to short rather than adding longs. Over the past week the volume and intensity of language in tweets has risen substantially. On Thursday our daily indicator recorded its highest volume and intensity level ever. That day the market closed flat and the daily indicator came in at nearly zero. The bulls and bears are engaged in a battle royal. When the winner emerges, we suspect it will be with a large move in price.

Currently the bears have the sentiment advantage, but the bulls continue to press the price advantage. Sentiment gave its first warning on January 29th, but the bears haven’t been able to keep price down. We’ve had two negative initiation thrusts that haven’t resulted in price falling over the next several days. This tells us that many market participants are skittish, but others are buying into any weakness or panic.

Twitter support and resistance levels expanded last week with Monday bringing a few calls for 1450 on SPX. The rally on Wednesday brought renewed calls for 1550 above the market. We mentioned in our previous sentiment update that the market would “experience some headwinds and short selling if it gets into the 1525 or 1530 area” on SPX. This coming week we expect more of the same. However, a break above that level will be met with short covering, which could quickly take SPX to 1550. Our current support levels are 1500, 1470, and 1450. Our resistance levels are 1525 to 1530 and 1550.

We’ve added a Twitter Sentiment Sector Rotation chart to Downside Hedge. It is currently suggesting that the market could move higher. Over the past few weeks it has moved away from its bearish reading where technology, basic materials, and industrials were out of favor and the defensive sectors were showing positive sentiment readings. Currently, the defensive sectors are showing sentiment weakness and all others…
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EU Doesn’t Like Its Forecasts, So It Removes Them From Its Site

Courtesy of Mish.

With thanks to Yogi Berra, making predictions is hard, especially about the future. And with constantly revised forecasts for the EU, the European Commission decides the safe safe thing to do is Eliminate Forecasts for 2015.

Via Google Translate from El Economista …

This morning you could see the data for 2012, 2103, 2014 and 2015, but now can only see the figures from 2011 to 2014 and there is no trace of the catastrophic 2015 numbers (see the screenshots attached below).

Although there is no official communication in one way or another, hypothetically could be a real blunder produced after being released by mistake, or any type of computer failure, a former forecasts for 2012 under the 2015 column.’s say, that would have mistakenly announced as 2015 forecast estimates released earlier this year to last year.

Forecasts of Discord

Those European Commission forecasts envisage a general improvement in economic scenario for 2014. However, estimates for 2015, this morning hidden behind an interactive graphic , pointed for a few hours, before being erased-a brutal relapse. In fact, Germany would grow 2% in 2014 to only 0.8% in 2015, would UK from 1.9% to 0.3%, France 1.2% and Spain 0.2% from 0.8% to -1.4%.

Sooner or Later

El Economista has some interesting snapshots of the removed estimates. To be completely fair, the original posting may have been a simple mistake.

Regardless, I suggest the EU forecast for 2014 is too optimistic.

Will the EU 2014 estimates be revised lower as well? If not soon, then expect revisions later, with France leading the way lower.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com



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Ron Paul: “When They Came For The Raw Milk Drinkers…”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

From Ron Paul

When They Came For The Raw Milk Drinkers…

While I oppose most gun control proposals, there is one group of Americans I do believe should be disarmed: federal agents. The use of force by federal agents to enforce unjust and unconstitutional laws is one of the major, albeit overlooked, threats to liberty. Too often Americans are victimized by government force simply for engaging in commercial transactions disproved of by Congress and the federal bureaucracy.

For example, the offices of Rawesome Foods in Venice, California, have been repeatedly raided by armed federal and state agents, and Rawesome’s founder, 65-year old James Stewart, has been imprisoned. What heinous crime justified this action? Rawesome sold unpasteurized (raw) milk and cheese to willing customers – in a state where raw milk is legal! You cannot even drink milk from a cow without a federal permit!

This is hardly the only case of federal agents using force against those who would dare meet consumer demand for raw milk. In 2011 armed agents of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) raided the business of Pennsylvanian Amish farmer Dan Allgyer. Federal agents wasted a whole year and who knows how many millions of our tax dollars posing as customers in order to stop Allgyer from selling his raw milk to willing customers.

The use of force against individuals making choices not approved of by the political elite does not just stop with raw milk. The Natural News website has documented numerous accounts of federal persecution, including armed raids, of health food stores and alternative medical practitioners.

Federal bureaucrats are also using force to crack down on the makers of gold coins for fear that people may use these coins as an alternative to the Federal Reserve’s fiat currency. Bernard von NotHaus, the founder of Liberty Dollars, is currently awaiting sentencing on federal counterfeiting charges — even though Mr. von NotHaus took steps to ensure his coins where not used as “legal tender.”

Yet, the federal government was so concerned over the possibility that Mr. von NotHaus’s customers might use his coins in regular day-to-day commerce they actually labeled Mr. von NotHaus a “terrorist.”

These type of police state tactics used against, among others, raw milk producers, alternative health providers, and gold coin dealers is justified by the paternalistic…
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The Men Who Built America: Remembering The Gilded Age Part 2

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Continuing to look back at what once was. Following Part 1′s emergence from the civil war and the age of enlightenment, In Part 2 of the 4 part History Channel series, America continues to recover from the Civil War, undertaking the largest building phase of the country s history. While much of the growth is driven by railroads and oil, it’s built using steel. From the Civil War to the Great Depression and World War I, for better or worse; for richer or poorer, in ethical and societal sickness or health; these five men – John D. Rockefeller, Cornelius Vanderbilt, Andrew Carnegie, Henry Ford and J.P. Morgan – led the way.

 





China HSBC PMI Misses, Prints At Four Month Low

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While the rest of the world was blissfully enjoying its latest reflation experiment, one country that has hardly been quite as ecstatic about all the blistering free money entering its real estate market (if not so much the Shanghai Composite) still warm off the presses of the G-7 central banks, has been China. Because China knows very well that while in the rest of the world, free money enters the stock market first and lingers there, in China the line between the reflating house market and the price of hogs – that all critical commodity needed to preserve social stability – is very thin. As a result, last week China withdrew a record CNY900 billion out of the repo market – the first such liquidity pull in eight months. This move had one purpose only – to telegraph to the rest of the world that the nation, whose central bank has patiently stayed quiet during the recent balance sheet expansion euphoria, will no longer sit idly by as hot money lift every real estate offer in China. Moments ago we got the second sign that China is less than happy with the reflating status quo, when the HSBC Flash PMI index for February missed expectations of a 52.2 print by a big margin, instead dropping from the final January print of 52.3 to just barely above contraction territory, or 50.4. This was the lowest print in the past four months, or just when the PMI data turned from contracting to expanding in November of last year.

While we won’t know for sure if it is officially China’s stance that the rest of the central bankers must back off now until the other PMI number is released, the official Chinese sourced one, it is quite likely that the official February print will be just as weak if not more. Recall that as the chart below shows, January official PMI already posted not only a major miss to expectations, but a decline. As such today’s HSBC drop merely cemented what the official data was already telegraphing.

If indeed the official PMI print comes well below expectations, or is even negative, then just like in 2011, the reflation party is slowly but surely ending, as the world’s marginal economy – not only in terms of…
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Not Done Rising, But Night Will Come

Read: MarketShadows February 24 2013 Newsletter: Not Done Rising, But Night Will Come 

This week:

Event Horizons: Not Done Rising. Market's going up, till the end of April. Then we'll reassess. 

Market Forces: Lee Adler's composite liquidity indicator keeps going higher: Cis Bam! Fed Drives Massive Liquidity Surge, Treasury Says Thank You Ma’am.
 
Screen-Shot-2013-02-21-at-2.56.48-AM (1)
 
Value Exploration: Paul Price's Virtual Value Portfolio (stocks) is almost filled up, so we sold some PUTS in our Virtual Put Selling Portfolio.
 
depositstoloans




Quadrocopter Pole Acrobatics

Courtesy of Mish.

Here is an interesting video that came my way via reader “Nino”. It’s a look at some rather amazing technology that is developing right now, and I suspect very few are aware of it.

Link if video does not play: Quadrocopter Pole Acrobatics

The video shows a quadrocopter capable of dynamically balancing an inverted pendulum (a stick weighted at the bottom), but also flipping the stick to another quadrocopter that determines the optimal position to catch it without losing balance.

Technology marches on whether anyone is aware or not. People do become aware as markets for technology develop.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com



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Yet Another Unintended Central Planning Consequence: Running To Stand Still

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Via Louis-Vincent Gave of GK Research (A Gavekal Company),

Lemmings And The Quandary of Negative Real Rates

For most portfolio managers, investable assets can be thought of as sitting somewhere on the risk-return curve shown below. Of course, depending on valuations at a particular point in time, positioning in the economic cycle, or overall geopolitical risks, some of the relative positions may change. But over long periods, investable assets have tended to display the risk-reward characteristics highlighted by the efficient frontier below.

Now in recent decades, investors could assume that across the length of an economic cycle, almost all investments would provide a positive real return. Diversification across the curve made ample sense, and this is precisely what happened: looking at the stock of global assets, one sees that out of an estimated $209trn in global financial assets (excluding real estate), $52trn sits in equity with $45trn in government debt, $65trn in loans (possibly a good chunk of which finances real estate), and $46trn in corporate debt. In other words, roughly one quarter of the world’s financial assets are in equity (on the top-right hand of the risk-return curve) with three quarters in debt (at the bottom left of the curve). This asset mix brings us to the policies followed today by most Western central banks of guaranteeing negative real rates for as long as the eye can see. This policy of negative real rates has an obvious goal: push out investors from the bottom left of the curve to the top right, thereby boosting animal spirits, creating jobs, and returning Western economies to a more solid growth environment. But could these policies suffer from the law of unintended consequences?

If we look at the risk-return curve today it is obvious that 75% of global financial assets are now locking in real losses, unless of course, inflation collapses and deflation takes hold in the major economies. Consider a 2 year treasury bond yielding 0.25% as an example. With inflation running at around 1.7%, anyone buying such an instrument is locking in a -1.5% real capital loss for the next two years. The same argument can be made for Germany where yields are even lower than in the US, even if inflation is running at the same pace (and likely to accelerate further), or…
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The Thinking, Drinking, And Tweeting Man’s Guide To The Oscars

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

From the youngest to the oldest nominee for best actress (Quvenzhane Wallis – 9 and Emmanuelle Riva – 85) to the relative money gambled on the outcomes, we thought it only appropriate to provide some education and information as this evening's self-congratulatory mutual masturbation begins. With TED scoring well in social media, hopes of an Angelina Jolie thigh-show high, and enough communal drinking-game directions to sink Seth MacFarlane, we hope this provides a little levity as the seriousness of Daniel Day-Lewis' method overwhelms.

 

The History of the Oscars…

 

 

The Oscars vs The Superbowl (from 2010)… (click image for large version)

 

And if social media was deciding (click image for visual via The UK's Daily Mirror)…

 

And finally, Esquire's always-classy drinking game

Drinking communally is one of the great innovations of the modern world. The Oscars, and awards-shows in general, are not. Filled with pomp, circumstance, and self-importance, they are only made bearable by the moments that really remind us of what the movies are all about — nostalgia, storytelling, honoring artists you know have worked hard and haven't sold their souls. For the rest, well, we'll get through it together. Here are some Eat Like a Man-approved beverages to pair with your Best Picture nominees of choice and a few easy rules for participation.*

Drink this if you're rooting for…

Take a sip if…

  • The camera cuts to someone Seth MacFarlane just insulted.
  • Daniel Day-Lewis speaks.
  • You find yourself admiring Ben Affleck's beard.
  • You find yourself admiring Dustin Hoffman's beard.
  • You find yourself admiring Joaquin Phoenix's beard.
  • You find yourself admiring Jennifer Lawrence.
  • Tom Cruise bares his


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“No Rotation” – Fund Flows Lag Returns, Not Lead

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

There is a simple reason why the real money (as opposed to fast money tweakers) has been far less excited about the domestic equity fund inflows than the financial media and their sponsoring commission-takers would suggest. The reason is – as Goldman shows empirically, not anecdotally – fund flows ‘lag’ performance, ‘not lead’! As we have noted previously, the great rotation myth is simply that – a unicorn-like belief that the investing public will sell down their bond portfolios (high-yield, investment-grade, and sovereign) to stake their future on stocks – when the reality is the flows (which are not rotating to stocks ‘net’ anyway) simply reflect the sheep-like herding of performance-chasing index-huggers hoping to beat the greater fool. There always has to be someone left holding the bag…

 

 

Table: Goldman Sachs





 
 
 

ValueWalk

#1 Performing Global Macro Hedge Fund Sees More Shorts Opportunities Ahead As China Bursts

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Crescat Global Macro Fund update to investors on 1/19/2019

Crescat Global Macro Fund and Crescat Long/Short fund delivered strong returns for both December and full year 2018 in a difficult market. Based on ...



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Zero Hedge

Johns Hopkins, Bristol-Myers Face $1 Billion Suit For Infecting Guatemalan Hookers With Syphilis 

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A federal judge in Maryland said Johns Hopkins University, pharmaceutical company Bristol-Myers Squibb and the Rockefeller Foundation must face a $1 billion lawsuit over their roles in a top-secret program in the 1940s ran by the US government that injected hundreds of Guatemalans with syphilis, reported Reuters.

Several doctors from Hopkins an...



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Phil's Favorites

Divisive economics

 

Guest author David Brin — scientist, technology consultant, best-selling author and futurist — explores the records of Democrats and Republicans on the US economy in the following post. For David's latest posts, visit the CONTRARY BRIN blog. For his books and short stories, visit his web...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stock declines did not break 9-year support, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

We often hear “Stocks take an escalator up and an elevator down!” No doubt stocks did experience a swift decline from the September highs to the Christmas eve lows. Looks like the “elevator” part of the phrase came true as 2018 was coming to an end.

The first part of the “stocks take an escalator up” seems to still be in play as well despite the swift decline of late.

Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am- All of these indices hit long-term rising support on Christmas Eve at each (1), where support held and rallies have followed.

If you find long-term perspectives helpf...



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Digital Currencies

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

 

Transparency and privacy: Empowering people through blockchain

Blockchain technologies can empower people by allowing them more control over their user data. Shutterstock

Courtesy of Ajay Kumar Shrestha, University of Saskatchewan

Blockchain has already proven its huge influence on the financial world with its first application in the form of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It might not be long before its impact is felt everywhere.

Blockchain is a secure chain of digital records that exist on multiple computers simultaneously so no record can be erased or falsified. The...



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Insider Scoop

Cars.com Explores Strategic Alternatives, Analyst Sees Possible Sale Price Around $30 Per Share

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related 44 Biggest Movers From Yesterday 38 Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Mid-Day Session ...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...



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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn

 

Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...



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Biotech

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from www.shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.

...

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Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>