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Which Way Wednesday – Breaking Out or Breaking Down?

Three out of five indexes look very good!  

The same can be said about a dog with three legs and no tail, I suppose.  So, the question is, is the market a dog in a nice sweater or whatever the metaphor would be for something where 3 healthy guys drag two dead guys around and win the race.  

Hmmm, I guess there is no metaphor for that – BECAUSE IT'S RIDICULOUS, isn't it?  A healthy market looks like a healthy market and this does NOT look like a healthy market.  

You can ignore Russia invading Ukraine, you can ignore China's exploding debt bubble, you can ignore collapsing German Investor Confidence, you can ignore Japanese Inflation, you can ignore all the stuff we already talked about in this morning's news alert – but that's not going to make it go away!  

SPY 5 MINUTEYes, we made new highs yesterday but look at the crap volume.  The volume on the Friday after Thanksgiving (half a day) was 55M on SPY, the volume on Dec 26th was 63M and New Year's Eve was 86M – that's how ridiculous yesterday's volume was.  

We're still in the pattern of the market rising on low volumes and selling off on high volume, which is simply the way the Banksters pump up their holdings into the opens and then dump them on what few retail suckers are participating into the closes.

You can hear their media puppets ramping up the rhetoric at the same time, wagging their fingers at the retail investors and telling them they are "missing" the rally.  Why weren't they saying that when the markets were 50% cheaper?  Why not when they were 25% cheaper?  No, only at a market top does the Corporate Media tell you to BUYBUYBUY because their masters already bought their fill and now they need someone to hold the bag.  Same as it ever was.  

[image]Check out the front page of Mr. Murdoch's Wall Street Journal, nothing about Russia and they spin the Administration's attempt to boost Housing as a positive when it's actually a reaction to the horrific numbers (but a reaction we bet on with our HOV and KBH plays, so thank you Obama!).  Below the fold in this morning's Journal is the spin article "Tech Firms' Cash Hoards Cool Fears of a Meltdown," right next to "The Buxom Boys of Bawdy Birding."

The WSJ practices what Zero Hedge rightly calls "drop box journalism" as the 150-year tradition of excellence the Journal fought hard for is now being squandered to support a single Billionaire's agenda.  It's not just the Journal, of course, most of the media has been corrupted and a majority of the information we get these days is more like propaganda – hardly surprising when just 6 companies control virtually everything you see or hear:

Do any of these companies or the Billionaires who own them want to tell you anything is wrong with the economy?  They certainly don't want you to sell their stocks or stop buying their sponsors' products, do they?  Why is German consumer confidence plunging for five straight months while ours is rising?  Could it be that we're not reading the same news?  

Not for long though – Uncle Rupert is making a play to take control of BSkyB in Europe - a deal that was previously struck down by regulators in the wake of the UK "hacking scandals."  BSkyB's strategy mimics that of Murdoch's occasional rival John Malone, who has spent billions over the last decade building Liberty Global's cable TV empire. Last year he spent £15bn acquiring Virgin Media, bringing his global customer base to more than 24 million, with 80% of revenues coming from its pan-European operation.

IEV WEEKLYBSkyB has a more sophisticated operation than its German and Italian sister companies and believes it can boost the proportion of customers that take multiple products, such as TV and broadband, as well as introduce services such as the internet streaming service Now TV and the film service Sky Store.  BSkyB's UK and Ireland operation can reach 27m households, while Sky Europe would have a target of 94M households across five countries.

One thing's for sure, if this deal isn't stopped, it will be the last you hear of an objection to it because, like the US, it will put almost all of the media in Europe under control of just a few Billionaires.  We can expect investor confidence to get right back on track once we weed out all those annoyingly negative stories, right?

INDU WEEKLYAs we discussed in yesterday's Live Webinar, I'm a value investor (and we discussed value trade ideas on RRD, WEN, KBH, IGT, WFM, HOV, IRBT and TASR) and, at the moment, I'm not seeing value in many stocks.  Not none, of course – those 9 were just the first in a series we're considering – IF the S&P can take out 1,900 and hold it.  If not, we're already "Cashy and Cautious" and happy to wait and see which of our picks get cheaper and THOSE will be the ones we end up adding to our portfolios (which we'll be reviewing today in our Live Member Chat Room).  

At the moment, we're long on gold, long on silver, short on the Dow, short on oil (see this morning's conviction trade guidelines) and, looking at Dave Fry's IEV chart above, I think we'll go short on that as well!  

Why do we like gold and silver?  Our Producer Price index was up 0.6% this month, 3x the 0.2% expected and even core PPI was up an undeniable 0.5% – essentially making a hockey-stick move on this chart which, of course, is being downplayed by the Corporate Media as we speak.  

0.6% – that's OFF THE CHART!!!  0.5% is the top of the chart!  What inflation?  The Fed doesn't see any inflation, the media doesn't see any inflation – do you?  Gold is touching $1,310 and silver (/SI) just hit our goal at $20 and you can see our longs coming off the table with $4,500 per contract gains from our entry back at $19.10 last week.  We also have SLW in our Short-Term Portfolio along with a bear put spread on GLL (ultra-short gold) in our Long-Term Portfolio so we have been firmly in the bull camp all year – as I noted, $20 is where we take profits on our Futures trade but, long-term, we think there's a lot more upside to come as the reality of inflation kicks in.

SLV WEEKLYInflation was the theme we were playing for early this year as well.  DBA was one of our big winners already this year as well as ABX, which is still playable (see yesterday's post for all of our early 2014 trade ideas), since it's "only" up 213% out of a potential 566%, so it can still more than double from here and all gold has to do is tick up just a little and we should get a home run!  

Inflation is the reason we remain long-term bullish on the market (we expect a short-term correction).  Stocks are, after all, priced in Dollars and inflation will eat away at the buying power of those Dollars and you'll need more and more of them to buy the same stocks.  

Also, earnings will expand with inflation, only the net earnings will be worth less – but that hasn't stopped Japanese stocks from running higher and higher as the Yen has gotten lower and lower.  There's no reason we can't have fun as well.  


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  1. Oil Lines

    R3 – 104.26
    R2 – 103.15
    R1 – 102.57
    PP – 101.46
    S1 – 100.88
    S2 – 99.77
    S3 – 99.19


  2. Good Morning!



  3. Interesting times in China:

    http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/6cd98926-d9e1-11e3-b3e3-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=intl#ixzz31cdbcB5V

    The greater risk to China lies in the pervasive consequences of any property bust. Property investment has grown to account for about 13 per cent of gross domestic product, roughly double the US share at the height of the bubble in 2007. Add related sectors, such as steel, cement and other construction materials, and the figure is closer to 16 per cent. The broadly defined property sector accounts for about a third of fixed-asset investment, which Beijing is supposed to be subordinating to the target of economic rebalancing in favour of household consumption. It accounts for about a fifth of commercial bank loans but is used as collateral in at least two-fifths of total lending. The booming property market, moreover, has produced bounteous revenues from land sales, which fuel much local and provincial government infrastructure spending.

    The reason things look different today is the realisation of chronic oversupply. As the property slowdown has kicked in, housing starts, completions and sales have turned markedly lower, especially outside the principal cities. Inventories of unsold homes in Beijing are reported to have risen from seven to 12 months’ supply in the year to April. But when it comes to homes under construction and total sales, the bulk is in “tier two” cities, where the overhang of unsold homes has risen to about 15 months; and in tier three and four cities, where it is about 24 months.


  4. StJ re: China, lumber sales for Chinese domestic usage have cooled.  Distributors have inventory and report sales are slow; most of current sales there are shifting back toward re-export markets.  This all fairly new, within last 30 days or so, FWIW.


  5. albo – Why do you like them?  Any inside info?


  6. Good morning!  

    Speaking of people who have no soulConservative pundit Ann Coulter on Sunday night joined the band of conservatives mocking the #BringBackOurGirls social media campaign, which began as a way to call attention to the 300 Nigerian girls kidnapped by Boko Haram.

    Ann Coulter attempted to poke fun at the ?#‎bringbackourgirls? hashtag, and boy was there ever a backlash!!! My favorite take on it the new "meme": The one of her holding a sign that says: "I'm a miserable person who peddles hate to dumb republicans" (with the caption: What Ann Coulter does for a living).

    That's what you get for peddling hate, Ann!

     

     

     


  7. Wow, selling right off at the open, that's a new one!  /TF already 1,110, /YM 16,650 breaking, 3,600 failing on /NQ and 1,890 in question on /ES – all good shorting spots.  Oil made it to $102.37 but now $102.30 and, of course, I still like it short per morning comments:

    Futures/Craigs – It depends what kind of player you are.  We went with June USO puts because I wasn't sure what would happen this week, even though the rollover is Wednesday next week.  I do feel strongly we'll get a nice sell-off by the end of next week and, so, I'm willing to play a conviction short at $102 on /CL, which means I'll DD at $102.45 to average 2x at $102.23 (getting back to 1x on a move down, of course) and then a stop at $102.60 and re-enter 2x at $102.45 (average would then be $101.86 on 2x with another DD at $102.95, for an average of $102.40 on 4x and a stop at $103.10 for a $2,800 loss) or a re-enter 2x at $102.95 for an average of $102.59 with a DD at $103.45 for an average of  $103.02 on 4x and a stop out at $103.55 for a loss of $2,120.   That's the plan.  

    Inventories at 10:30 and, of course, we expect to go up into those.

    Gold $1,307, silver $19.83, copper $3.16, nat gas $4.39 and gasoline $2.94.  


  8. Phil, I'm having trouble with the math on the oil instructions.  

    First Step:

    Short at 102, DD at 102.45 ; Avg cost 102.23.  Stop at 102.60.  If stop hit pnl -$740

    Second Step:

    Re-enter at 102.45, but how do you get Avg of 101.86?  Wouldn't the avg be 102.60(stop) + 102.45?


  9. Burrben – EZCH is a small Israeli company that makes network processors.  They are designed in at CSCO, ZTE, and others.  Growing nicely.  New products expected to accelerate growth later this year.  No real U. S. sponsorship yet.   Near term performance will probably be affected by CSCO's report this evening.   I may be a little early on the stock, but really like their prospects.


  10. Butterflies / Phil – Good morning Phil. Are we going to check the Butterfly Portfolio today or tomorrow? Thank you.


  11. Don't forget Monday's Dow shorts – set-up looks very good!  

    A 5% pullback on DIA is 8.3 points (830 Dow points), back to $158.40 from here.  The June $161 puts are .95 so, if you have $100K to protect against a 10% drop, you can buy $5K worth of the June $161 puts and a 5% drop pays you back $8,000 and a 10% drop to $150 (15,000) would net you $11 per contract so a 10x return is $55,000 back – that's overhedged actually!  

    On DXD, the July $25/28 spread is $1.10 and is $1.25 in the money so you get all the upside on DXD up to a 140% profit on a very small move down in the Dow.  We already have July $28 calls in the STP and it's a little too soon to roll but we will.   

    On a new trade – you can just get out if the S&P holds 1,900 for more than a day – that's not too far from here.  

    They're a little cheaper now, in fact, with DIA at $166.41, the June $161 puts are .88 and DXD is $26.25 and you might be able to squeeze that spread in for $1.  

    EZCH/Albo – Nice call that led to a good trade idea, thanks!  

    Submitted on 2014/04/30 at 2:07 pm

    EZCH/Albo – It's a small, fabless semi, which means they are only as good as their last contract.  I think the issue with them is they were priced for really big growth with NP-5 that didn't pan out.  If they hit current projections, the p/e is 20 at $24 – I don't really see what would take them to $36 in a conservative market, which is what is likely to lie ahead.  I don't know enough about what others are working on in the network processor market to say whether EZCH has a defendable advantage – they do seem to be ahead of the game for non-embedded chips but serious OEM's will stick to their own solutions.  

    They're not likely to have a terrible Q so you can sell EZCH Jan $20 puts for $1.75 for a cheap entry and, if you want to be aggressive, you can add the $25/30 bull call spread for about the same and you make $5 if they pop or you buy them for 20% off for the long haul.

    That one is another good example of how we can see VALUE long before the price settles down.  As StJ noted yesterday, you can never expect to time perfect bottoms but our entry system allows us to take a poke at a position once it hits a PRICE we feel is below the true VALUE and, after that, all we have to do is wait for the rest of the market to wise up (sometimes it takes a while…).  

    Cramer is pumping his ass off this morning – not helping so far.  

    China/StJ – That thing is going to collapse in a very nasty way at some point but it's so hard to say when because the Government is still willing to build whole cities on spec.  

    Thanks Pwright, good info. 

    Oil/Burr – You take the .37 lost on the stop out and subtract it from your new entry (since you are short) but I don't know where $101.86 came from since it would be $102.08 in that case.  I like that number better anyway.  cheeky

    Butterflies/Akad – That's my homework for today, Portfolio Reviews all around.  


  12. On the hour

    10:00 AM ET

    • Dow -0.26%.
    • 10-yr +0.33%.
    • Euro +0.07% vs. dollar.
    • Crude +0.58% to $102.29.
    • Gold +1% to $1307.7.


  13. Solid sales trend continues for Ford in Europe

    09:45 AM ET · F

    • Ford (F -0.1%) announces sales in Europe rose 6.6% in April to 99.7K.
    • The Fiesta model was the hottest-selling car once again with 29K registrations.
    • The automaker improved its European market share by 20 bps to 7.9%.
    • Ford continued its strong run in the U.K. with a sales gain of 11.6% for the month.


  14. Good luck on any one who entered any of the GMCR plays the sheep are jumping over the cliff already


  15. Two Exxon fields in North Sea at risk of strike, union says

    09:34 AM ET · XOM

    • A potential strike by Exxon Mobil (XOM +0.2%) oil workers in Norway would hit the company’s Ringhorne and Balder facilities in the Norwegian North Sea, labor union SAFE says.
    • The workers could go on strike from June 16 if government mediation on wages and pensions fail.
    • The two fields produced ~46K boe/day in 2013.


  16. At the open

    09:34 AM ET

    • Dow -0.08% to 16702. S&P -0.07% to 1896. Nasdaq -0.22% to 4120.
    • Treasurys: 30-year +0.51%. 10-yr +0.18%. 5-yr +0.08%.
    • Commodities: Crude +0.6% to $102.31. Gold +0.91% to $1306.6.
    • Currencies: Euro +0.06% vs. dollar. Yen -0.38%. Pound +0.37%.


  17. Gannett snaps up six Texas TV stations

    09:28 AM ET · GCI

    • Gannett (GCI) buys six TV stations in Texas from London Broadcasting Company for $215M
    • The acquisitions give Gannett a broad presence in the state and don’t overlap on a geographic basis the stations the company already own.
    • The deal price could be adjusted at closing based on the net working capital of the stations involved.


  18. Analysis: ‘Strong possibility’ of AT&T-DirecTV merger

    09:06 AM ET · T

    • Oppenheimer says there is a “strong possibility” AT&T (T) will pull the trigger on a $100 bid for DirecTV (DTV).
    • After crunching the numbers, the investment firm says a DirecTV integration would be accretive to AT&T’s free cash flow per share by at least 7%.
    • Though there has been a lot of talk from analysts about AT&T being able to increase its average monthly revenue per user through a DirecTV purchase, others note the real value could be on the content negotiation side where a DTV-T combination yields considerable leverage.
    • DTV +0.3% premarket to $86.35.


  19. Apple: NFC And Mobile Payment Processing Are Just Around The Corner

    09:34 AM ET | by AtonRa Partners Includes: aapl

    #summary_content { margin: 22px 0 38px 0 !important; }#summary_content *{ font-family: Helvetica !important; color: #2A2A2A !important;
    }#summary_content p{clear: both;display: block;line-height: 20px;}#summary_content ul {margin: 12px 0 24px 0px !important;}#summary_content ul li{background:url(‘http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/images/ipad/black_bullet.png‘) no-repeat left 7px;background-si…

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    http://seekingalpha.com/article/2217093?source=ipadportfolioapp_email

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  20. Wal-Mart in focus with earnings on tap

    08:34 AM ET · WMT

    • Wal-Mart (WMT) reports Q1 earnings tomorrow with analysts divided on if the period will show some late-quarter momentum.
    • Though sluggishness with comp sales in the U.S. is expected, Wal-Mart’s margins could see some relief if the product mix and average ticket trends move in the right direction.
    • Looking ahead, Jefferies is out with a long-term bullish note on the retailer and a price target raise to $92. With any sort of earnings dip tomorrow Jefferies recommends buying shares.
    • The investment firm’s PT is on the high side from the Street.
    • Earnings previews on WMT: SA contributor Selerity Research, SA contributor Brian Gilmartin, International Business Times


  21. Macy’s navigates through tough retail quarter

    08:15 AM ET · M

    • Macy’s (M) reports comparable-store sales fell off 1.6% in Q1.
    • The department store operator managed a 10 bp increase in its gross margin rate to 38.9%. The retail sector was ripe with GMR drops of over a percentage point during the quarter.
    • Guidance from the company is maintained in another indication that management navigated the tricky U.S. retail winter season in good form.
    • The company raises its share repurchase allowance by $1.5B. Macy’s now has about $2.5B in its buyback arsenal.
    • M +0.6% premarket


  22. Bloomberg: Boeing wins $3.8B 737 order amid China travel boom

    08:11 AM ET · BA

    • Boeing (BA) will sell 50 737 aircraft worth at least $3.8B to a low-cost carrier being set up by China’s Juneyao Airlines, as a loosening of government controls on low-cost travel stokes demand expectations, Bloomberg reports.
    • The order by Juneyao’s 9 Air subsidiary will include next-generation models of the 737 and 737 Max, which list for $76M-$110M each and equating to a price tag of $3.8B-$5.5B on the order.
    • Boeing has said it will deliver ~140 aircraft to China this year after a record 143 planes last year.


  23. Plug Power turns lower after Q1 report, now -7.3% premarket

    07:56 AM ET · PLUG

    • Plug Power (PLUG) has reversed initial gains after reporting Q1 earnings and is now -7.3% premarket.
    • Losses widened a bit and revenues fell 13% Y/Y during the quarter, but the key stat may be that PLUG shipped 165 units in Q1 vs. 238 units in Q1 2013.
    • However, PLUG has more than $80M in bookings YTD, double the bookings from 2013, which the company attributes to the successful launch of its GenKey business.
    • PLUG expects to ship more than 650 GenDrive units in Q2; targets $70M-plus in revenue for FY 2014 vs. $65M analyst consensus estimate.


  24. Deere lower after cutting sales forecast

    07:55 AM ET · DE

    • Q2 equipment sales of $9.246B fall from $10.265B one year ago.
    • Deere (DE) cuts its full year sales outlook, now expecting a decline of 4% vs. a 3% fall in previous guidance.
    • The company notes farm income is expected to be lower than last year, putting pressure on demand for equipment, especially for larger models. A strong livestock market is supporting mid- and smaller-size tractors. Industry sales for ag machinery in the U.S. and Canada are expected to decline 5-10% this year.
    • Source: Press Release
    • Previously: Deere beats by $0.15, beats on revenue
    • Shares -1% premarket


  25. SodaStream in focus after stumble in U.S.

    07:55 AM ET · SODA

    • SodaStream (SODA) is in focus after a stumble in the U.S. drives home that the company is having some trouble penetrating the region to the same degree as other markets.
    • Guidance from SodaStream is for a FY14 revenue to increase by 15% to $647.11M vs. $639.3M consensus.
    • The company sees FY14 net income improving by 3% Y/Y to $42M.
    • What to watch: Weakness by SodaStream in the U.S. is almost sure to drive out more speculation on a major beverage player buying out the Western Europe juggernaut. Pepsico (PEP) and Starbucks (SBUX) top the list.
    • SodaStream earning call webcast 7:30 EST.
    • SODA -3.3% premarket


  26. SodaStream fizzles after weakness in the U.S.

    07:43 AM ET · SODA

    • SodaStream (SODA) reports a sharp drop in U.S. sales during Q1 after a “challenging” holiday set the stage for a drop in demand.
    • Sales of consumables rose 11% in Q1 to help offset a 10.8% falloff in revenue from soda maker starter kits.
    • Geographic growth: Americas -28% to $34.8M; Western Europe +17% to $62.5M; Asia-Pacific +28%; Central & Eastern Europe, Middle East, Africa +34% to $9M.
    • SodaStream’s gross margin rate fell 220 bps to 52.3% due to the shift in product mix and F/X swings.
    • SODA -5.1% premarket


  27. Several meds may help break the alcohol habit

    07:22 AM ET · FRX

    • An analysis of more than 120 studies finds that naltrexone, Forest Labs’ (FRX) Campral (acamprosate), J&J’s (JNJ) Topamax (topiramate) and H. Lundbeck A/S’ Selincro (nalmefene) all helped alcoholics reduce their drinking.
    • The oldest FDA-approved alcoholism drug, Antabuse (disulfiram), did not prevent a return to the bottle.
    • Alkermes Plc’s (ALKS) injectable Vivitrol (naltrexone) reduced patients’ heavy drinking days but there were not enough studies to draw conclusions.
    • The drugs are underutilized because many primary care physicians refer patients with drinking problems to specialists like drug counselors or to groups like AA. None of these providers can prescribe medicines.
    • There are almost two dozen drugs that are used off-label to combat alcoholism. No one product works for everyone, though. On average, 12 people need to be treated with acamprosate for one person to benefit. For naltrexone, the ratio is 20:1.
    • Predictably, the researchers say more studies are needed.


  28. Sears mulling over unloading Canada business

    07:22 AM ET · SHLD

    • Sears Holdings (SHLD) says it’s considering selling Sears Canada.
    • A sale of the company’s 51% stake or putting the whole business up for sale are both options which are being considered.
    • The board at Sears Canada has indicated it will cooperate in the process.
    • SHLD +7.5% to $46.48.


  29. Fortress reportedly putting together bid for Stuyvesant Town

    07:14 AM ET · FIG

    • Massive Manhattan apartment complex Stuyvesant Town-Peter Cooper Village is back on the market four years after its owners defaulted on a $3B-plus mortgage and Fortress Investment Group (FIG), reports Bloomberg, is looking to get financing for a $4.7B bid.
    • Stuyvesant Town is currently under the control of special servicer CWCapital, which is owned by Fortress. CWCapital has begun the process of foreclosing on the property’s mezzanine debt, a move which would pave the way for a sale.
    • The complex was purchased at the height of the bubble for $5.4B and recently appraised at $3.4B. A $4.7B bid would certainly speak to the resurgence of NY’s rental market. Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) continues to work with tenants seeking to put together their own bid for the property.


  30. Weak outlook stings Sony

    06:41 AM ET · SNE

    • Sony (SNE) is lower by 5.1% in premarket action after reporting a net loss of ¥138B (¥93,2B profit a year ago) in FQ4 on sales of ¥1,870.9B (+8.1% Y/Y), and guiding to a net loss of ¥50B for the full fiscal year ending next March.
    • It will be narrower than the ¥128.7B loss reported for this fiscal year, but weaker than analyst estimates for a profit of ¥59B. The news isn’t completely unexpected as Sony has repeatedly lowered guidance in recent weeks.
    • The culprit looks to be continued restructuring costs stemming from the sale of the PC business and “other strategic initiatives.” Bright spots: 50M smartphone sales are expected, up from 39M; PS4 sales forecast of 17M is up from 14.6M.
    • Press Release


  31. Phil – right.  So you're short at 102.45 with a avg price of 102.08 (showing the .37 loss).  

    The DD at 102.95 would have you in at a avg cost of 102.08 + 102.95 / 2 = 102.52. 

    I believe you have listed that the avg price would be 102.40 on 4x.   I think it should be 102.52 on 4x.  The stop at 103.10 would show a .58 loss per contract.  That $580*4 or a loss of $2320 not $2800.

     

    Would you mind going through it again and fixing the numbers?  No reason to have bad info out there when we're all trying to learn.


  32. Five-year low for U.K. unemployment

    06:16 AM ET · FXB

    • The U.K.’s unemployment rate fell to a 5-year low of 6.8% in Q1, says the Office for National Statistics today, giving more fuel to those calling on the Bank of England to hike rates. “Record low interest rates are increasingly unnecessary,” says Rob Wood, an economist at Berenberg Bank and a former BOE official.
    • The BOE, however – in its May inflation report released after the unemployment print – acknowledges the rebounding economy, but says more slack needs to be absorbed and reiterates its low-rate pledge. The outlook for inflation in the medium-term remains benign, says BOE Governor Mark Carney.
    • The pound slips vs. the dollar, down 0.25% and buying $1.6786.
    • ETFs: FXB, EWU, GBB, EWUS, FKU, DXPS, DBUK


  33. EZCH – Very bullish comments on conference call.  Expect significant increase from CSCO this year.  We'll see what CSCO reports tonight.


  34. GMCR/Yodi – Yes, very encouraging.  Nice job on the short calls.  

    Oil/Burr – Yeah, I usually don't do the math, it's just a reflex and TOS keeps track of the net for me.  Essentially the goal is to move the first down marker over the next potential pullback level so, if you enter at $102.45 and it goes over $102.50, you either stop out or you want to wait to DD at a point at which a move back down to test $102.50 or $102.75 will allow you to get out even.  As you know, pullbacks tend to bounce off .25 lines, so, if we decide to stick with the oil short at $102.55, then we wouldn't want to DD until we're up to $102.75 avg so really $103.05 would be the logical goal but, since we don't think we're going to get over $103, we take the play at $102.90, which moves the average to $102.67 and we'd be hoping for a drop back to $102.50 but, even if it goes to $102.75 and holds it, we'd still want to take 1x back off the table to lock in a .15 gain on 1x and then our $102.45 entry moves to $102.60 and NOW if we DD again at $102.90, we've accomplished a 2x entry at $102.75.  

    You need to keep in mind that this is very advanced stuff and also VERY EXPENSIVE when you get it wrong.  There are no 3-step rules that you can go by every time, you have to make decisions on the fly and use instincts, these are just guidelines because, if oil pops up fat to $102.90 – I'm not going to DD until I see it slow down or reverse – you don't jump in front of a .60 move up just because it hit some target you thought you'd want to DD at hours earlier.  You have to take into account they kind of move you're seeing as well as whatever new data has become available.

    Here's inventories:

    Oil up 1Mb – I don't have the rest but that's good enough.  

    CNBC girl is spinning the crap out of the report but it's bearish.  


  35. SGYP/Pharm – reported the other day. rose more cash, still in development. Like em? buyout candidate? stay away?


  36. Inventories actually mixed, hard to get a read but net down 1Mb will hold out some hope for the bulls.  We got a quick spike down to $102.05 which let us get back to 1x short at that price and I still like a DD but only if we get to $102.90, otherwise, I'd rather see how a single contract plays out for now as I want to have room to ride it to $105 over the weekend as I definitely want to be short into the rollover next week.  
     
    Only 6 more trading days to get rid of 175M barrels – figure 160M and they'll keep 15 for June delivery.
     
    Click for
    Chart
    Current Session Prior Day Opt's
    Open High Low Last Time Set Chg Vol Set Op Int
    Jun'14 101.91 102.40 101.83 102.35 10:25
    May 14


    -

    0.65 77354 101.70 175542 Call Put
    Jul'14 101.27 101.74 101.17 101.68 10:25
    May 14


    -

    0.63 44763 101.05 263332 Call Put
    Aug'14 100.27 100.82 100.27 100.79 10:25
    May 14


    -

    0.63 13465 100.16 136039 Call Put
    Sep'14 99.39 99.82 99.39 99.78 10:25
    May 14


    -

    0.55 13096 99.23 117902 Call Put
     
    • EIA Petroleum Inventories:
    • Crude +0.9 barrels vs.consensus of 0 and -1.8M last week.
    • Gasoline -0.8M barrels vs. consensus of +0.1M and +1.6M last week.
    • Distillates -1.1M barrels vs. consensus of +0.6M and -0.4M last week.
    • Futures +0.46%.

  37. Hedges/VIX: Sosnoff says had an interesting comment from yesterday, bemoaning the lack of opportunities in the market along with the overpriced, overhyped situation:

    "With the VIX hovering above 12, vol is the only thing I can buy in this rally.  With VVIX in the tank, long VIX call spreads are attractively priced."

    I have never traded the VIX, but I know some of the board members have. The Jul 12/16 BCS can be had for $2.20. Any views on the use of this trade as a hedge? I presume markets tumbling equals increased volatility. Again the cost can be offset by selling puts on a much loved stock.


  38. SGYP – well, their drug is an Ironwood type that is more potent and less side effects (from data that is out there now).  So, yes, I do like them in here and selling puts and calls to reduce the stock basis.  Are they a take out, sure, but I think the Phase 3 data are going to need to push them over for that which is a few years away.

    VIX – I would go up on the spread for a cheaper price. July $15/20 are 95c. 


  39. CNBC talked about Ukraine, US Exporting Crude and Summer Driving Season as reasons oil should head higher despite the surprising build in actual inventories.  

    API had crude up 0.9Mb but Gasoline down 2Mb and Distillates up 0.9Mb so they were looking for net 0.2 drop, which means this EIA number was not disappointing so let's not look for a pullback off this report today.  Better to let it go if they get over $102.50 for now.  

    See, new information leads to a change in tactics!  


  40. Charts and commentary: I tend to agree with Phil about the value of charts, but Colin Twiggs always seems to provide some well thought through commentary along with his charts, often related with his proprietary Money Flow indicator


  41. i think bond investors looking more at other things…and the hot ppi means diminished prolonged qe hopes….which investors think means slower growth….i think all the deflation talk from imf , china worries intensifying, russia situation, no vigorous bounceback in US data from bad weather, realization central banks are helping to create massive overcapacity globally, massive sov debt bubble in europe pushing investors back to US for value….also all contributing to bond strength
     

    you see household debt back to 07 levels where certain people where screaming americans where living beyond their means…which contributed to ensuing meltdown…..not a peep now…spend away baby!!! we have an election to win before we implode again


  42. Pharm – Seth Klarman, no dummy, recently bought 10% of KERX.  Any thoughts ?

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bauposts-seth-klarman-takes-10-224331341.html


  43. VIX/Winston – That's a crazy-assed thing to play.  Bull call spreads don't really work well because you won't be able to take advantage of a move up to exit and that means you have to be at your goal on that date (or way over beforehand) in order to cash in the trade.  I simply don't play the VIX, the premiums are ridiculous.  StJ does very well shorting VXX whenever it pops up – that works because of the outrageous decay that ETF gets through the constant churning.  It also makes it very foolish to make long-term bullish bets.  

    Money flow/Winston – That's a good thing to keep your eye on.  

    Good points Angel.  

    Oil $102.57 now, $102.85 was top, re-shorting /CL at $102.90 or $102.45 with very tight stops on either.  


  44. Pharm

    What do you think of INCY?  Price target of 86.00?

    INCY US: Incyte Corporation – Reit Buy – PO $86 – Highlights from dinner with INCY management. (Last Price $54.16) 

    §  We hosted a dinner with Incyte's CEO and CFO at our BofAML Healthcare conference in Las Vegas.

    Thanks


  45. VIX; thanks Phil. It shows how bad this environment has become when I am in the ante-chamber of crazy assed things to play :) . I can see the writing on the wall – the market will tank 5%-10% (when did we last have one of those?) – everyone will ask you after that episode what they can do to protect their portfolios, you'll remind them of the DXD spreads and DIA long puts you put up in May, and we will all look at ourselves with that 'stupid' look.

    It's funny how everything seems so good until it's bad. My portfolio seems to be rolling with the punches – up small on 'down' days for the indices and up big on 'up' days – it is kind of scary. My sensible side says I should cash out completely, I have no right to be up this much at this time of the year. My gambling side says let's roll the dice a few more times to see how far we can ride this beast. Danger is, it will all end in tears. 


  46. TLT back to $113 – that's panic.  Not the VIX though, 12.09.  

    AMZN back to $300 but NFLX interesting short at $350, which is a weak bounce off the $460 to $320 drop ($140 means $348 would be the weak bounce line).  Failing here means they are more likely to complete a 40% retrace to $276 and the June $275 puts are only $1.20 - so let's try 5 in the $25KP ($600) and 10 in the STP with a stop at .80 and we'll risk $200 on something that can make us a ton of money if NLFX tests $300 (the $310 puts are $5 so a $35 drop is what we'd like (10%).  


  47. NFLX – I like that one, thanks! 

    EXPE – I like them long term.  Currently Jan 16 65/80 BCS is 6.2, and 55 Puts can be sold for 6.2.  Thoughts?  


  48. Phil, Regarding the short hedges.  You suggested buying  puts on DIA, however this is a debit trade so you are spending money on a one way bet the market will be lower by June expiration.  I agree with your view, however, the DJIA will have to drop some just to make back what was spent enetring the position.  Would it not make more sense to open a Bear call spread for a credit or the Bear and the put to offset the cost of the put leg.  You get the added benefit of a more negative delta on the position  and some minor cover from the long call if timing is wrong.  Spending less or even making some money to open a position which would pay more if your correct on direction (down) and timing (soon) seems to me a better bet.  What am I missing?


  49. Phil / NFLX – missed the short window the 275 puts were 1.20. Is it worth chasing it as it seems the trade is moving in the direction you called it would?


  50. Household debt / Angel and Phil – I forgot to post yesterday, but what was interesting in that chart that Phil posted was that credit card debt is down, mortgage debt is up moderately, but what kills it now are the student loans. They are up dramatically. In effect, the baby boomers cleaned up their balance sheets but the millenials are deep in debt when they start their productive lives… That's not going to hurt the economy right away, but 5-10 years down the road when our generation is retired and on smaller retirement budgets. 

    And there are different (but just as bad) problems in other western economies – pension plans are running out money, state funded retirement schemes as well as demographics are skewed toward older people. That's also 5-10 years down the road. And by then China will be borrowing money as well to fund their budget deficits. I guess the bright side of the story is that people living off bonds will do well because rates will have to go up to attract capital. 


  51. Saw this on Hays Advisory :

    Jason Goepfert of sentimentrader.com actually shared this week that, "Options traders on
    the VIX 'fear gauge' have opened a massive number of call options versus put options. When this
    happened in January, volatility soon spiked, as it has historically done."

    Check out the VIX volatility in January.  Might be a good time to start a position in some VIX calls.  Given that the index is so squirrely, would go out 2-3 months.


  52. Phil/NFLX,

    Why did you choose the June put and not the July puts? trying to learn on how to select the correct time frame for options. Have made mistake in the past by selecting smaller time frames and getting burned just to see the options moving in the direction desired but after the selected time frame.

    Thanks!


  53. These guys are not very good at forecasting…

    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2014/05/economists-in-policy-roles-bad-at-forecasting.html

    While the Fed talks as if it knows the outcomes of its policy choices with a differentially higher degree of certainty, the record indicates that it doesn’t:

    sloak_forecasts

    Policymakers should adopt disciplines that reflect the inherent riskiness in setting policy. There are numerous disciplines that involve decision making in the face of risk and uncertainty, e.g., game theory. Perhaps policymakers should consider incorporating findings from those fields in to policy design and implementation, rather than setting policy as if they know with certainty the future course of the real economy and the interactions among policy, the financial markets and the real economy.


  54. You're welcome Cdel. 

    DIA/Sibe – The point of buying the DIA June $161 puts for $1 isn't because we expect the Dow to be below $160 on June 20th, it's because we expect it to track AHEAD of that curve between now and then.  For that trade to win, the Dow has to drop 650 points in 37 days or about 20 points a day on average.  So the bet we're making is that the Dow will be down more than 60 points by the end of the week (below 16,600) or more than 200 points by next week (below 16,450) and we should have a winner.  

    We don't want a bear call spread because we won't be able to take advantage of a quick drop and take gains off the table since we'd have to unwind both legs of the trade.  Just because we PREFER to Be the House, doesn't mean we ALWAYS have to sell premium.  In this case, betting $1 (.95 actually) on the June $161 puts limits our risk to $1 (and we should be able to take .50 off the table) but the $163 puts are $1.25, so we can expect a 25% return on a 200-point drop (as long as it happens sooner than next Friday) and another 200-point drop (not even a 2.5% pullback) puts us about where the $165 puts are now – $1.85.  There's no limit to what we can gain if the Dow goes down but, realistically, we'd be thrilled if it re-tests $160, where it was just 22 sessions ago.  I'd suggest trying it both ways and seeing which one works better – there's no better teacher than experience.  

    NFLX/Pfehl – Well, to some extent, it's our own buying that's driving up the price (now $1.27).  Not everyone is disciplined enough to put in a limit order at $1.20.  I would wait and see if NFLX bounces as the indexes are bouncing off /TF 1,110, /ES 1,890, /YM 16,600 and /NQ 3,600 again, so there's no reason to think you won't get another crack at NFLX at the proper price.  As a rule of thumb, I'll pay 5% more if I have to chase something but that would NOT be the case if I thought there was a 50/50 chance it might come back – then I'd rather take my chances and wait rather than waste 5%.  There's always going to be another trade.  

    Bright side/StJ – Not all that bright…

    VIX calls/Albo – Prices are ridiculous.  July $12s are $3.50.  Sept $17s are $1.85 and you can buy those and sell June $18s for .60 on the premise that you'll be able to roll out of trouble but that's not a certainty as the pricing for each month is independent of the others.   Essentially, each VIX bet is a bet on where it will be in that specific month, the VIX can spike to $20 and the short June $18s could be $3 or $4 while the Sept $17s barely budge.  

    NFLX/Pat – Because I think NFLX will  either fail here (by next week) or it won't so why spend more money to go out to July in this case.  There's no "rule" for this – it is about what we expect a stock to do over a certain period of time.  My theory is that NFLX is failing a weak bounce and, if they get over $350, then it's wrong and we pull it and we're done.  If it does fail to hold $350, I doubt it will stay here for more than a few days before sentiment shifts and the bottom-fishers who jumped in at $320 run back out the door when their profits are in danger.  

    NFLX popped up on HOPES that net neutrality rules will reverse and check out the massive pump job in the press about them this week:

    The reality is that nothing will happen soon as the FCC can only suggest that Congress pass a rule and we all know how long those get kicked around.  

    Both sides are gearing up for a prolonged battle, assuming the FCC votes to move ahead with the new rules. A public comment period is expected to run through July 25, with replies to initial comments accepted until September 10, according to an FCC official.

    So that's no reason for NFLX to go higher and competition from AMZN is heading up and HULU just hired away one of NFLX's primary marketing people, so we have to assume they are serious and, of course, there's AAPL TV in the wings along with plays from others like INTC.  Also, the Comcast/TWC merger, if it goes through, would be terrible for NFLX as they will push a massive "on demand" service to compete.  Lots of bad news to potentially hammer NFLX in the near future but, for now, the MSM is flooded with news to pump them up so the big boys can head for the exits.  

    Anyway, this is all silly as NFLX just earned 0.83 for Q1 against $350 shares.  Even if you DOUBLE that (and there's absolutely no reason to do so as next year's projection is $7 total) to $1.66 and multiply it by 4, that's $6.64 per $350 share for a p/e of 53, which is completely ridiculous compared to CMCSA (18), TWX (15), DISH (30 – and they are getting bought!), DIS (20), CBS (18)….  NFLX is becoming more like TWX, not less and that's going to drive those p/e ratios lower over time.  

    And remember – we DOUBLED the earnings to get to a p/e of 53, as they stand now, the p/e is over 100 and THAT is assuming all goes well for them down the road.  

    So we bet $1 at $350 and, if we're wrong, we'll probably bet $2 at $380 and $4 at $400 and $10 at $450 because the VALUE of NFLX is $300 or less – no matter what the PRICE is.  

    Fed/StJ – That's because they refuse to admit QE isn't working and they aren't going to admit it because it is working for the Banks, which is all they actually care about.  The rest is just a con job they play on the American people.  

    Speaking of idiot forecasters:

    China's November policy package led Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to raise its recommendation on Chinese shares to overweight and spurred Citigroup Inc. to predict returns of at least 20 percent in 2014


  55. Phil,

    Any thoughts on csco earnings?


  56. Phil,

    Any thoughts on csco earnings?


  57. Is there an echo in here?


  58. Wheeee on oil again!  We just passed $102.25.  


  59. Phil – any thoughts on EXPE?


  60. CORN/Phil – Have Aug $35/$40 bull call spread for $1.00 and Aug. $29 put for .80. What would you recommend for this position now? Thank You.


  61. $25,000 Portfolio Review ($25KP):  

    Not much to report here, GMCR burned us but now we can turn that into a nice winner if it comes back down.  Since we made $5 on the short puts, our break-even is $14.50 and we're almost there already.  USO not going to well but not worth adjusting either.  I'd like to roll up to the $39 puts, now $1.99 for .50 or less if oil goes higher (now $102.45).  NFLX we just added today. 

    Butterfly Catching Portfolio:  

    I cannot stress enough how great this portfolio is for the conservative investor.  We're using just 1/6 of our buying power and generating 20% profits on the whole portfolio.  That means that 1/6th that's working is up 120% so far!  You never want to go more than 50% invested – just in case one of your positions blows out and you have to adjust but we have plenty of room to add more – when we identify another stock with options that are priced more volatile than we expect the stock to be.  It's a rough criteria but we seem to find them often enough.  The low VIX makes it rough at the moment.  Still, up 5% since last month – not too shabby!  

    • BTU – That one has been a wild ride and we'll need to roll the May $16 caller ($3.15) to the Sept $17 calls ($2.70) for net .45.  We're getting more confident in the long story here, so we'll spend $450 to move up $1,000 in strike on our 10 contracts.  Don't forget, these trades don't terminate in 2016 – we'll simply roll our long positions out to 2017 or 2018 when the time is right and keep on rolling the short positions – RAWHIDE!  
    • CZR – This one is like a little cash machine.  Looks like we're on the nose this month and that means we're profiting almost all of the $3,200 worth of puts and calls that we sold on 3/31 (45 days) against our $6,600 long position, so that's 48% back on our money in 45 days.  If you like making 1% a day on your money – these kinds of trades are for you!  Now we have to think of where CZR will be in Sept (there is no July or Aug and June is too soon) and I'm liking them to get back to $22.50 by then and we can sell the Sept $21 calls (to be safe) for $2.10 and the Sept $20 puts for $2.60 to drop another $4,700 in our pockets (71%) over 128 more days (0.55% per day).  

    • DIS – Just over our $80 goal but we sold $3,150 in May premium and we're paying back $1,300 of it ($1.30 for the May $80 calls) for a net gain of $1,850 against a $46,910 long position, which is 4% in less than 30 days – still a very nice rate of return in a different variation of our usual spread.  Because of the structure, we could care less if DIS goes up or down (we're covered both ways) and they do have July contracts so we'll sell the $82.50 calls for $1.95 and the $80 puts for $1.90 and drop another $3,850 in our pockets.  
    • TXN – This is our first month on this one and we nailed it, with both the puts and calls expiring worthless for $1,400 against our $6,350 long.  That's 22% back on our money since 4/23 – not bad!  Our premise remains this stock goes nowhere so we'll sell the July $45 puts for .98 ($980) and the $47 calls for .90 ($900) and drop another $1,800 in our pockets.   Pay-offs are lower this month because the VIX is so low – nothing we can do about that.  

    Income Portfolio Review:

    Fortunately, we don't really have anything to move here as our trades are all longer-term.  Our $500,000 Portfolio has $570,000 in cash because we are Being the House and collecting a lot of premium.  So far, we've realized a 7.1% gain for the year ($35,600) but, of course, we cashed out at the end of March and we're only just rebuilding our positions.   

    At this moment, cashing out has been a failure compared to riding it out as the LTP, which was also up about 7% in late March, is now up 12% BUT the LTP does not have $570,000 in cash – it "only" has $520,000…  If the positions in the Income Portfolio do what we expect and the premiums we sold expire worthless, we'll be up the same 12% – the real difference is the LTP positions are more mature and are already realizing their profits.  

    On the other hand, we have tons of buying power in the Income Portfolio, so I'll be a lot more inclined to add some of those new positions, like the ones we discussed in yesterday's webinar.  Whichever ones are cheaper next week – those are the ones we're likely to buy.  

    Meanwhile, we're not fighting the generally bullish market and selling short calls just yet, especially at these crappy option prices (due to low VIX).  There's not a position here I wouldn't be happy to double down on if it got cheaper – so waiting and seeing is our plan over here.   


  62. Phil – Good points on the VIX.  If the market does provide enough volatility to produce a big bounce in the VIX, there are other, more liquid ways to play it.

    Nice job with the portfolios !


  63. Butterflies / Phil – (Actually, double diagonals) TXN shorts are June options so still a month to go before they expire… 


  64. CSCO/JMD – I love CSCO but I think they are fairly valued now at $23 with a range of $20-25 being fair.  I hope they miss so we can add them but I don't think they will.  No compelling reason to play them here.  

    Oil/Bruce – I hope you took those stops!  Nice break for us and maybe another stab at $100.45 now.  

    EXPE/Cdel – Where were you when I loved them at $45 last year?  Now they're $71 and nowhere near as compelling but I'd love them if they sold off a bit.  The 200 dma is $65 so hopefully a little pullback and we can sell some puts.  A lot of growth is already priced in, likely to be a misstep at some point along the way.  

    CORN/Hex – I'd say the short puts are pretty safe but that bull call spread is going to be rough.   CORN does tend to pop in June/July, so the timeframe is good but this pullback is worrying.  As long as you intend to be long on corn long-term, not a big deal as you can roll the short puts along but I'd take those Aug $35 calls ($1.35) and roll them to the Jan $35s ($2.35) for $1 because the Jan $35s are 3x further out than the Augs so, even though you are paying 66% more, you cut your time decay from 1.5 pennies per day to less than one penny a day and you'll be able to wait out a test of the 200 dma at $33.  Also, it gives you the fallback of selling the Jan $35s for $2+ to some other sucker and rolling to the $30s (now $5) which would net you into the $5 lower spread for 0.20 (original net) + $1 (roll) – $2 (short $35s) + $2.50 (the roll) = $1.70 on the $5 spread and your breakeven would be $31.70 – even less if you also pick up another $1 or so selling a Jan put (the $30 puts are $1.20).  Having a good escape plan is an essential part of a good position!  

    Thanks Albo.  

    Double Diagonals/StJ – Yes, but that's a boring sounding portfolio name.   

    Thanks on TXN in the Butterfly Portfolio, those are June short puts and calls so that's our rolling PLAN but we're not executing yet (since we're right on target).  


  65. Portfolio name / Phil – I kind of like the Double D name :-)


  66. KERX – they are ok, but need to improve earnings.  Sell $10 puts in June.  That is a good entry.

    INCY – well, I need to look at the pipeline.  They are in the same boat as PCYC.


  67. Phil re: CZR in butterfly portfolio, for starting a new position, do you still like the Jan 2016 15 puts and 22.50 calls for the long positions?  Or better with, say, 17.50 puts and 25 calls based on where CZR is currently?  And then sell the Sept 21 calls and 20 puts as above?

    Thanks


  68. MCP – couldn't resist – entering buying stock, selling Dec 3.5 calls for net $2.50 entry.


  69. MCP – add short Dec 2.50 puts and you are in for net $1.98.


  70. Phil / TXN – could you also suggest a new entry plan for the TXN butterfly or would I go with the same longs and sell the recommended July puts and calls as mentioned above. Thanks. 


  71. CZR / Phil – I know Butterflies give you a lot of work with our questions but we are learning (I hope!). Why is June too soon? Is it to have more margin to roll in case something goes wrong?

    We entered the May options on 3/31 (45 days to expiration) with approximately $3.20 in premium. If we enter today on the June options ($21 call, $20 put) we have 36 days to expiration (9 days less than our first entry) and $2.30 premium aprox. ($.90 less premium than our last entry and about half your Sept recommendation). Doing this monthly (June, July, Aug and Sept) could yield more premium ($9.20 vs $4.70). You could even sell only ½ of the monthlies in case the trade goes bad.

    Shouldn’t July contracts appear Friday or Monday? Why not wait?


  72. scottmi – Closed my eyes, gritted my teeth, and sold some Jan 2.5 puts for .61 and .60.  Looks like a reasonable gamble to me.


  73. MCP/albo – I sold some Dec 2.5 puts for .54. I have no problem acquiring (more) MCP at net 1.96. and if I change my mind, roll. Is possible I suppose but think unlikely will be bought out by any auto company. Maybe Apple will buy them. Or Marissa (oh wait, she only buys companies with young boys as CEO, right?). I really don't think they are going to fold up shop.


  74. Dropping from $102.50 again.  


  75. Phil

    Liquidity Services, Inc. (LQDT)

     

    What do you think of this business

    Thanks


  76. Albo – good price on those Jan 2.5s !


  77. Pharm

    Tesaro, Inc. (TSRO), what do think of them

     

    Thanks


  78. http://www.10news.com/news/brush-fire-breaks-out-in-carlsbad

    Pharm!  There's a fire in the 'hood'…..


  79. Phil//  I see the AMZN Jun 275 puts at $2.68.  Did I miss it at $1.20?  Thanks.


  80. CZR/Pwright – Sure, it's a little bit bullish and both positions are a bit cheaper than our entry.  You can go with the others, it's not actually that important as long as you aren't going to cry when CZR goes up and down 20% on you (which it does often).  The idea of the longs is just to backstop a big move against you so you only lose maybe $5 if you get blown out of the position.  Since the goal is to make $20, having the backstops give you a very nice risk/reward ratio.  

    TXN/Phel – Same trade but return is low(ish), just 1/2 of what I said because they are June options.  Of course, boring is good sometimes.  

    CZR/Akad – Yes, the June puts and calls only pay $3 and we already know CZR goes up and down $3 all the time.  More relaxing to go longer and collect $4.70 and I do value my relaxation…  You can be more aggressive, maybe it's better, maybe it's not but I know for sure I have a lot less work to do by picking Sept and, since I intend to add more – I'd rather reduce the work I have to do on each position (and decrease the risk), not increase it.  You're looking at a trade that's on track to return 120% by Sept (15% per month) and you want to run around trying to squeeze 50% more out of it.    

    How much is enough?  Rather than try to maximize every penny of every position you have – especially when it involves taking on more risk and taking more of your time – why not move on and collect the "safe" 120% and look for more positions that will return that much.  If you find one other position that makes 120%, it's worth 3 times you will spend running around trying to squeeze and extra 50% out of the current positions.  

    Nice ride on oil this time – $102.20, so stop is now $102.25!  

    LQDT/QC – I'd say yes on them.  They crashed because they took on a contract with the DOD and screwed themselves – a typical rookie mistake in Government contracting.  While it was a real bonehead move – I'm sure they've learned their lesson and the rest of their business is still very solid.  The contract was the same reason they missed earnings by 25% but they were punished yet again, falling from $27 to $18 and then from $18 to $12.  Seems a lot of people put their foot down at $12 and now they are $13.75.  Options only go out to Dec but I'd sell the Dec $15 outs for $2.85 and buy the $12.50 calls for $2.60 for a net .15 credit and, as long as they go over $15 – it's all profit over $12.65.  Let's do 10 of those in the STP (since we'll have to watch them).  

    AMZN/Rookie – Read more carefully, it was a NFLX play, not an AMZN play.   Those filled no problem.  


  81. Phil // BFlies  (( Repost from other thread ))
    Two q's
    BTU Fly // Would you recommend creating the BTU spread now as a new entry ? I have a spread thats up 35%, I could just cash it and recreate the fly going forward.

    ?CZR // I'm assuming we let the calls and puts expire in lieu of rolling ? Still $1,000 on the table for 2 days.


  82. Phil // DIS
    Same question with DIS fly – do we use the same spreads up top to recreate. I'm trying to cash out any volatile plays and get more into flies. I like 'em.


  83. phil – nice call on cl – i was going to wait for the pivot point at 102.57 to get short, but i went in at 102.45 instead.  set my stop at 102.62 before moving it up to 102.59 .. needless to say that wasn't very smart as the market moved to 102.60 before reversing hard.  just missed that one but ill get it next time


  84. CZR / Phil – I ran the stats and with the current volatility, there is an 85% chance of CZR being above $15.40 and an 85% chance of being below $25.80 by the September expiration. 

    So the trade is slightly bullish indeed, bit not that far. I guess it would be possible to substitute selling the 20 puts with the 19 puts for a little more downside bias… But in any case, all the shorts can be rolled.


  85. 1020 – u have power?


  86. Yes Sir!…..


  87. …did you pay ur bill?….


  88. :)


  89. 1020 & Pharm, you guys San Diegans?


  90. Carlsbadians….. :)


  91. No….going solar….. :)   I am heading home…not looking good.


  92. Ha.  I work close to you guys.  Live in La Mesa but work in Mira Mesa!


  93. Nice Pharm – I've heard they do a great job keeping embers off your roof…. ;)


  94. Short-Term Portfolio Review (STP):  Always keep in mind the STP and LTP are PAIRED portfolios.  The $100,000 STP is primarily a hedge for the $500,000 LTP and is generally bearish.  We play around with other positions to try to make back the money we lose on our insurance plays but, in general, we don't expect to make any profits here – unless the market has a sharp correction, of course.  

    That means we're usually looking for BEARISH plays to include in this portfolio but, once in a while, we'll risk a long position if we think it has good odds of a quick pay-off.  

    • DXD – This is our primary hedge and DXD is a 2x Ultra-short on the Dow, now $26.40.  So we need a $2.45 move (10%) in DXD to get to $28.85 where our calls get in the money so, on a 5% Dow drop, our protection kicks in at which point each 5% additional drop on the Dow pays off $2.50 x 60 contracts or $15,000.  That's our insurance policy.  It has a deductible (the first 5% drop) and it cost us $5,100 to cover ourselves through July.  The key is that our LTP positions, if the Dow stays this high through July, should make a lot more than $5,100 – as the premium we sold will continue to burn off.   That's all there is to it!  
    • SLW – Even though it's down 40%, I still love this trade.  Silver popped from $19 to $20 but SLW only went from $21.50 to $22.24 so I think they've got more in them.  I'm sorry we didn't DD sooner but let's do it now and roll our 10 Jan $20 calls ($3.40) to 10 2016 $18/27 bull call spreads ($3.65) and we'll sell 10 2016 $18 puts for $2 which drops our net to the original $5.70 + .25 for the roll – $2 for the short puts is net $3.95 on the $9 spread that's $4.22 in the money.  Effectively, we're taking $1,750 off the table and drastically improving our position.  
    • TWTR – Those long calls are the dead remains of a spread we already cashed in.  
    • SCO – Those are dead.
    • GMCR – We just bought back the short calls.  Hopefully GMCR breaks back below $110.
    • NFLX – Brand new this morning.  
    • CI – We're going to move these to the LTP, more on that next week (remind me).
    • RIG – Also needs to move to the LTP – these were bullish offsets to bear trades and have done their job but no sense keeping them in our active portfolio.  
    • CAKE – This was an earnings play and we're hit it right.  May as well buy back the short June $47 calls, now .25 and I like CAKE long so let's buy back the Oct $49 calls too (0.90) and see if they can get back over the 200 dma at $45.75 next week.  If not – we move them to the LTP!  
    • CMG – We should have sold the calls this morning at $14 as we're sick of them.  Nothing wrong with this trade – just needs more time and we can dump them to the LTP if they don't close well this week.  
    • FAS – Right on the button on our short calls.  Would be great if XLF flatlines at $22 into Friday.  We will have to roll these if they don't expire but we'll also have to wait and see.  Either way we'll be selling more June calls as this is a great little income producer.  
    • FB – Right on the button but doesn't expire until June.
    • FSLR – They dropped more than we thought but it was a bearish credit spread so no big deal.  Too early to cash out as we still have $600 more to collect on the short calls.  
    • LQDT – Brand new spread, just added.  
    • TSLA – The spread is up $2K so that's good but it gives me a headache trying to figure out what want.  I guess we want TSLA to be below $200 but not too far below and today it's at $190 so that's perfect and, if that keeps up through Sept, we have another $10K coming – so worth waiting for…

    Long-Term Portfolio (LTP):  This is the crux (along with the Income Portfolio) of our "Get Rich Slowly" strategy.  We are not going for big wins here – we are going for STEADY wins – about 20% a year, year after year can do wonders for your bottom line.  The Income Portfolio concentrates more on generating cash – as it was originally set up for my Mom and her friends to draw some spending money off their retirement accounts.  The Long-Term Portfolio assumes you're on at least a 10-year plan and the goal here is to accumulate a lot of positions that are safely in the money and THEN we will begin to draw a regular income as well.  

    As usual, I love the entire short put section.  If we didn't have 40 HOVs, I'd want to DD but committing to 8,000 shares, even at net $4, is a lot so we'll leave it at 40 contracts.  

    • RRD – On the other hand, we just made a new play on so let's take the 20 short 2016 $15 puts (now $2.75 = $5,500) and move them to 15 of the $17 puts at $4 ($6,000) so we get $500 more and drop our exposure from 2,000 at net $12.80 ($25,600) to 1,500 at net $13.92 ($20,880) and we'll add 15 of the 2016 $15/20 bull call spreads at $1.30.  
    • TASR – Now the stock is cheap enough ($12.98) that we want it so let's buy 1,000 shares and sell 10 of the 2016 $13 calls for $3.30 too.  Since we already sold the $15 puts for $3, that gives us a net of $6.68/10.84.  
    • DBA – $2.75 out of a possible $4 with the spread 100% in the money.  We wait.  
    • GLL – $6.50 out of a possible $8 with the spread 100% in the money.  We wait.  
    • HK – Nicely on track with a huge gain.  
    • AAPL – Nicely on track with a huge gain.  
    • ABX – On track.
    • BRCM – We wisely sold the May $30s and they are expiring worthless.  VIX is too low to bother selling Junes at the moment.
    • BTU – Nicely on track with a huge gain.  
    • CLF – Nicely on track with a huge gain.  
    • EBAY – On track.  
    • IRBT – The Dec $35 calls are $3.40 and we can roll them to the $30 calls at $5.50 for $2.10, which is worth it to get $1.55 in the money, of course.  No other changes yet.  
    • LGF – Time for more of these.  The 2016 $25 calls are $5.50 and the $20 calls are $8.25 so $2.75 to roll down $5 is reasonable.  We'll also buy back the short 2016 $35 calls for $2.40 and see how that goes.  
    • LULU – On track.  
    • MSFT – Nicely on track with a huge gain.  
    • RIG – On track.  We were supposed to sell calls when they tested $45 – out bad for forgetting!  

    • SHLD – Now they are selling off Canada.  What's going to be left.  We're way up on this one but, if the stock can't hold $42 next week, I think we pull the plug.  
    • SLW – An aggressively bullish play, nice for a new entry.  
    • SPY – Our bet is the S&P finishes the year over 1,800.  Well ahead at the moment.  
    • T – On track.  
    • TWTR – Let's buy 5 more 2016 $23 calls for $13.85.

    Not a bad group of stocks.   Very nicely diversified and well-hedged.  Up $60,000 in 4 months is pretty good too!  Hopefully we can keep up the $15,000 per month pace (and we'll discuss this in our Portfolio Management Webinar) and net out $180,000 for the year – that would be a great start to this new portfolio!  


  95. JPH1121 – Nice. I live in the shadow of "casa de Pharmboy"  down at the coast…. :)


  96. ~~

     

    Cisco Systems prelim $0.51 vs $0.48 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $11.5 bln vs $11.36 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate


  97. BTU/Wombat – Sure, they are still cheap enough.   These butterfly  positions are designed to have huge tolerance so it's not hard to get in late.  It's a process, if they had 2020 calls, we'd buy those so don't think of it as ending, whenever we can roll we will because it's all about selling those front months forever and ever.  

    CZR/Wombat – Sure, we have no fear of them going in the money because we'll just roll the loser so why pay early?  

    DIS/Wombat – Same answer.  

    Thanks Toe.  As I mentioned earlier, we don't try to time things that closely.  We pick an entry and we scale in and, if it goes our way, we make money (see LTP) and, if it goes against us – we buy more!  

    Stats/StJ – God I love statistics!   Just pick a number and roll the loser – very simple…

    Meanwhile, while I was doing my homework, we dropped 0.5% across the board except the RUT, which finished giving back that ridiculous 2.5% gain the other day. Back to 1,100 on the button on /TF which is TFF!  wink

    Oil $102!  That worked out nicely in the end….  Congrats to the faithful. 

    Notice that TODAY I did like the Futures shorts at the open.  2 days with no play and today we played them all – thank you Mr Rothstein!  


  98. Over the last month, I've heeded you call for "cash" despite the irrational exuberance of our current markets.  Last week, in between trips to the pediatrician [all is well], I began scaling into and doubling a TZA position, believing that something would finally spook this market, and, while I didn't notice that actually happening, TZA fell off the table today anyway, and paid for six months worth of diapers, Similac and trips to the pediatrician — Thank You!!!  And Charlotte Rose would thank you, if she could, I'm sure.


  99. Well done, ZZ ! ! !

    Market obviously likes CSCO's results so far.  If it holds, could be positive for EZCH and other techs.


  100. ETF Trading Range:

    http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2014/5/14/sector-and-industry-group-trading-range-screen.html

    As you can see in the table, there is a lot of divergence going on between the various sectors and groups.  A lot are overbought, a lot are neutral, and quite a few are oversold as well.  During normal uptrending or downtrending environments, you'll typically see a large majority of ETFs on one side of their 50-days.  This is a good example showing the chopiness that investors are experiencing so far this year.


  101. Stats / Phil – I guess if the underlying instruments (options) is based on stats, might as well look at them ourselves to try to beat the dealer…


  102. Stj, thanks for sharing the list. I added them all into a watchlist. I can track US economy in my screen. lol


  103. Indeed Invest… I have them in Stockcharts with some tech indicators. Not all of them are great though, some are a bit too specific or overlap. 


  104. Stj, yup, it’s not perfect, but it covered most of them. Anyways, I’m wondering what are other tech indicators did you include in Stockcharts?


  105. I'm wondering why a great number of people on the list uses Stockcharts.com ?

    i used to use them but TOS covers about 90% of my needs. 

    You guys just on different trading platforms ?


  106. Stockcharts / Invest – I can't go crazy with indicators. I need something that's going to give me the general trend. When you are trading long term setups, it's all you need. I like their SCTR indicator because it's a combination of many indicators (MA, RSI and others). No need to have a million lines there. Also, they just merged with Decision Point and they have their PMO custom indicator and that also looks useful. You can add a volume indicator like OBV if you want and you are set. For example IWM:


  107. Stockcharts / Wombat – The charts in TOS are pretty good, but there are also blogs, commentaries on Stockcharts that make it useful. And it's not that expensive… I also use Amibroker for custom stuff and backtesting.


  108. Speaking of StockCharts

    My guess is that we have another down day tomorrow however, looking at the charts, we have had few consecutive big down days in these indices. It's been big down day, bottom with either a small down move or a flat day and upward movement again. So who knows…. 


  109. And the strangles expire tomorrow:

    Statistically, very good chances of expiring worthless…


  110. StJ // SC
    REally. Didn't know that. I remember getting in a tuff with them about not being able to have multiple ports – they wanted to double my subscription fee for a rudimentary functionality.
    Anyway, since Phil doesn't want us looking at charts ; > and the only thing I miss is the P/F charts – meh.
    Backtesting – you're such a geek ; >

    Oh, BTW – I feel obligated to put this out there. Many of you may remember Hummer and I going on about /CL calendar spreads ; retesting lots of theories. Well, it turns out that Hummer stumbled on ( or really figured out ) a pretty interesting way to play /CL hassle free. We've been using it for the last 4 months – every cycle with a gain. We just found out today that many hedge funds and banks use this – its called 'Goldman Roll Arbitrage' ; if anyone is really interested I can send you the research.


  111. Phil // Keepin up
    So, ever since we left the warm embrace of StJ's google docs , I've been really struggling to keep up with the current portfolios. Like many of us, I'm sure, we don't have separate ports, but have jumbled everything together because how our brokers work or limiting functionality on the platform.
    I have a few suggestions and questions.
    While your posts of the portfolios are useful ( and necessary), they aren't readable off-screen ; meaning the jpg quality is so low, when you print them out they'e intelligible. I thinkI have a solution. Instead of continually reposting them ( more work for you ) just name the files the same as they were. You can make a backup file if you want to archive them by month BUT the big advantage for your users, is I have all the portfolios bookmarked now ( which are totally legible in the browser ) by taking the image to a different window and adding that URL to a 'bucket'. At least that's whats it's called on a Mac. I hit PSW in my bookmark top bar, and it brings up about 10 different pages, from earnings to Facebook pages. If these were simply updated with the same name, we could be on the same page AND they would never change.

    Questions //
    I've been here for a while now ( even though I don't have a color ; > ) so I feel I have at least informed questions. I've watched your process for a long time ; I know you're trying to get it right. SImply put – we have too many portfolios. For example, I've been here 2 years, and I"m still amiss trying to explain the Income Portfolio from the Long Term Portfolio. I think we need to come up with a set of portfolios and stick with them – period.
    Also, it would be great if we could add a portfolio for IRA's. It seems we nibble at this but never really commit to have an IRA space. I've doubled my parents portfolio in a year ( probably much of it was luck, but I did it on my own ). It would really fill out the information of this was a regular addition ( 60% of my cash is in an IRA )
    Food for thought – let me know if yoiu have any questions, or anything his unclear.


  112. Phil/IRBT, I am in the Dec 35/40 BCS and sold the 30 puts. Bought Dec. 35 calls for 5.10 and sold the 40 calls for 3.30, sold the 30 puts for 3.62 for a credit of 1.82. Thinking of rolling the 35 calls down to the 30 calls (now 5.10) as the 35's are down 34% . Time to roll down and let the short 40's ride? Thanks


  113. Wombat.

    Comments to your portfolio dilemma.

    It amazes me how many members just follow Phil's plays like a blind bat. Obtaining option play I just do not follow or even set up plays just recommended. I pick and chose after I myself have investigated the play. I do not blindly follow a play. So all the different option portfolios Phil runs on his records of Power option is his way of controlling his different plays. I used to have power options some time back good but if you discontinue with there service you lose all info.

    I feel every one should have his own system to bring the entered plays under control, long play short plays or what ever you have, TOS only lists the actual plays which are active in your account but does not show a record of past positions, as you may show a loss in the active TOS position but overall you show a profit over the history of particular play.

    I must agree that the reproduction of Phil's power option plays are hardly readable same as his presentation with a black back ground on his seminars. I try to make that point before but he blames me that there is something wrong with my eye site. It is his problem if some people do not follow the presentation because they can not read it.

    But in deed one should establish once own system to feel comfortable.


  114. Yodi // Comments.
    Well, Yodi all that would be fine if Phil and I were just 'buds' and we were on a free listing service. Phil runs a service, or even a very lucrative business, so I would assume that it would be to his advantage to make his 'portfolios' public and 'readable' top please his subscribers.
    I missed in my post where I mentioned that I mirror Phils picks. I would go farther and say in my entire collection of portfolios probably 30% of my positions follow Phil's positions in some manner or form. As a matter of fact, one my most successful strategies has been to follow Phil's picks virtually, look for the ones that dump, and pick them up on the cheap if I still agree with his analysis. Pretty clever for a blind bat don't you think ?
    You're correct that over time, everyone should have their own plays. But what you're missing is that Phil's magnetism / emphasis is on teaching, not dictating ; there are plenty of services that will simply give you picks every month if you don't want to think. I don't think that's why the majority of people are here. Teach a man to fish – that's why I'm here.
    Phil puts up his powershares screens for convenience because thats why he decides to use ( you don't see me demanding Phil to use TOS, do you ? )
    In answering your 'question', TOS does allow you to see profits on your position from any date you choose. Go to your settings and add 'Profit YTD' and this includes everything, or go to your account statement and you can go back as far as you want.
    I agree with you that the presentation backgrounds on the webcasts are hard on the eyes ( black background ), however that is Phil's personal decision and doesn't effect the content.
    My comments were based around how to make ALL the fragmented portfolios simpler, and keep them available easily online for reference, for subscribers to reference. Out of the 500 premium members, I'm sure every one of those is used for tracking.


  115. Wombat,

    Yes we do pay for a service, one can recommend improvements and as you will agree most of us have different opinions, Phil has set ways and it is hard to change his views. In deed I tried, but still it is his site and a free choice to take it or leave it.

    Yes I do know there are all sorts of records on TOS but still prefer to use my own system. I can imagine it is hard for Phil to follow every once questions and requests. I think the guy hardly sleeps but that is where he possible finds his enthusiasm. I do not know any sites where you get that type of personal attention even that the same question is answered already 3x before. But obviously for a new comer or a beginner it is always hard to think for themselves. So it is his idea if you do not understand what I am saying do not enter the trade like a blind fool, which in return makes you think a bit harder to analyze  a given trade.

    Have a nice day mine already started 9.00 AM now. I see you on the board later Yodi 


  116. Regarding tools for tracking trades as well as maintaining historical trades, one tool I have used in the past is based on excel with super duper add-in macros. The add-in essentially grabs options data from various sources and excel templates sing and dance to carry out all kinds of analysis. I am not affiliated with this in any way – Hoadley Finance add-in for Excel (come to think of it I may have mentioned it before). It requires a bit of work to enter all trades – but for those looking for some structure in managing the admin side of their option business it may appear.


  117. Phil, Forget the IRBT question, I just saw your roll from earlier. Hazards of living in Asia time wise.


  118. SPY 5 MINUTEGood morning!

    Shanghai continues to grind lower, that's the one I'm watching most closely, now 2,024.  As some point, that's going to fail 2,000 and then look out below.  Hang Seng popped from 22,600 to 22,800 at the open and finished at 22,700 – total BS all around.  Nikkei was down another 0.75% but was worse at the open (14,280 on /NKD at the moment after testing 14,200, which has been a good long line so far).  India up 0.4% and Singapore up 0.4% too. 

    Europe down in stages with FTSE & DAX flat, France down 0.25%, Spain down 0.5% and Italy down 1.5% into lunch.  

    Oil has a new trick of popping when the NYMEX is closed and then drifting back up.  Brent is $110.40 and if it fails $110, then we're likely to get back below $100.  At the moment, we topped out at $102.65 then back to the TOS pivot point at $101.72 and now back to the neutral line at $102.15, where it's a tempting short but the first resistance line is $102.50 and that's where I'd love to get short again.  If not, playing below $102 with tight stops is the back-up plan. 

    Oh, Dollr 80.32 is why I like long on /NKD over 14,250 and also should put pressure on oil.   Gold is $1,305, silver $19.73, copper $3.16, Nat gas $4.34 and gasoline $2.965.

    We have CPI and Unemployment at 8:30 and Yellen speaks later so big craziness ahead!  

    Eurozone slow growth continues, inflation mixed

    • Eurozone GDP growth held steady at 0.2% in Q1 but missed consensus of 0.4%.
    • On year, GDP rose 0.9% vs 0.5% in Q4 and fell short of expectations of +1.1%. (PR)
    • CPI +0.2% on month in April vs +0.9% in March and forecasts of +0.2%.
    • On year, CPI +0.7% vs +0.5% and +0.7%. Core CPI +1% vs +0.7% and +0.7%. (PR)
    • See country GDP readings: Japan, Germany, France, Italy
    • The euro remains -0.3% and is $1.3677.

     

    Recovery Presents Mixed Picture for Firms

    The mixed economic picture across Europe was reflected in sharply different moods among some of the continent's top executives.

    IceCap Asset Management: "The Only Thing Booming In Europe Is Separatist Movements"

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    David Einhorn, Seth Klarman Warn Of Tech Bubble, But Like MU

    • Merkel Warns Over Bank Stress Tests

      German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the reputation of Europe's new bank supervision body could be undermined by undue political pressure being placed on bank stress tests scheduled for later this month.

    Ukraine Crisis Hits Region's Economies

    The escalating confrontation between Ukraine and Russia is inflicting severe pain on both economies and risks derailing the recovery in Eastern Europe and parts of the former Soviet Union, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development said.

    Ukraine Gas Price Deal Could Come Soon, EU Official Says

    A provisional price for Russian natural gas could be negotiated with Ukraine by the end of the month in a bid to avert a potential disruption of gas supplies, the European Union's energy chief said.

    Hang Seng Lifted by Tencent

    Hong Kong stocks moved higher on Thursday and Japanese shares fell as investors digested earnings reports from high-profile technology companies.

     

    UBS Sees 20% Drop for Biggest China Stocks on Profit Drop. UBS AG says it’s time to start cutting Chinese profit forecasts again. Chen Li, the chief China equity strategist at UBS, estimates companies in the nation’s CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300) will post a 3 percent drop in earnings this year, versus consensus forecasts for a 14 percent gain. As analysts downgrade projections to account for a weak property market and depreciating yuan, China’s biggest non-bank stocks may extend this year’s drop to 20 percent, Chen says. The Shanghai-based strategist sees parallels with 2012, when the nation’s slowing economy spurred analysts to reduce profit estimates and the CSI 300 index fell more than 20 percent from its May high through the December low.

    China Moves Factory Floor to Africa

    Criticism Leveled at China on Africa 'Absurd'

    In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, China's ambassador to South Africa discussed the relationship between China and Africa and the aspirations they have in common.

     

    Modi's Thatcherite talk cannot restore India's flagging fortunesIndia's superpower dreams are giving way to the same old reality of poverty.

    How The Debt Trap Swallowed Asia In Three Charts

    • OPEC May Struggle to Meet Demand

      The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries may struggle to catch up with rising oil demand, an energy watchdog said as it upgraded consumption forecasts.

    • Iran Oil Exports Well Above Cap

      Iran is exporting 1.5 million barrels of oil a day, well above an export cap agreed with the international community last November, Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said.

    Nickel Plunges More Than 9%, Biggest Slump Since 2011Nickel slumped the most in 31 months as investors deemed the metal’s rally this year as overdone. Contracts for delivery in three months on the London metal Exchange dropped as much as 9.7 percent, the largest intraday drop since September 2011, to $18,090. The metal, which touched $21,625 on May 13 and is the still the best performer on LME this year, traded at $18,460 at 10:13 a.m. Shanghai time.

    Here's Why The Baltic Dry Index Is Collapsing (In 1 Image)

    Obama Said to Put Personal Push Behind EPA’s Emissions RulesU.S. President Barack Obama plans to personally unveil proposed carbon-emissions rules for power plants, elevating climate change policy as a top tier issue for his final two years in office, according to two people familiar with White House strategy. Obama is preparing to make the announcement with Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Gina McCarthy, who said yesterday the rules are on track to be proposed by June 2, according to the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the schedule is still being planned. ?

    Cisco(CSCO) Revenue Forecast Tops Estimate on Pickup in U.S. Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) gave a forecast for fourth-quarter revenue that topped analysts’ estimates as orders in the U.S. climb on demand for networking machines to handle data traffic, making up for weaker emerging-market sales. Cisco’s revenue in the current period through July will be $12 billion to $12.3 billion, based on the company’s forecast for a decline of 1 percent to 3 percent from a year earlier. Analysts were projecting, on average, sales of $11.8 billion.

    RUT WEEKLY

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    USO WEEKLY

    UNG WEEKLY

    SGG WEEKLY

    RSX WEEKLY

    FXI WEEKLY

    NYSI DAILY

    VIX WEEKLY

    That NYSI chart is worth noting at it's staying up (overbought) even on days the market sells off.  That means it needs a much bigger sell-off to relieve the pressure.  


  119. As a side note, I have to reccommend TradingDiaryPro.  It's cheap, and the nice thing it allows you to do long term analysis on a underlying.  For example, I've played AAPL about 25 different ways, but with the software it has a record of all trades, open and close, that I've done.  I set it to All Positions, Group by Symbol, Sum PnL, and wa-la.. good tangible info.

    It's great to keep track of a trade with lots of rolls as well to keep the Pnl in check.


  120. You're very welcome ZZ, glad I can help pay the bills.  

    Trading ranges/ZZ – Very interesting chart but, looking at the above charts, I don't understand how they can call KBE, for example, oversold.  Maybe in the short time-frame they are looking at but certainly not on a 5-year perspective.  That's the danger of using data slices to determine predictions, you become blind to the bigger picture.  

    Stockcharts/Wombat – I like the Gallery View, which puts the daily and weekly charts on the same page.  Those are the main views I use when looking at stocks.  Anything less than daily isn't very interesting to me, other than picking an entry point on a trade.  

    Big Chart – That's a very ugly turn.  Mini spitting cobras on the "good" indexes and the RUT and Nas are forming the dreaded "burrowing gopher" pattern.  

    Goldman Roll/Wombat – Sounds like it would make a nice post if you have the time.  

    Portfolios/Wombat – I'm happy to improve them if you can.  Feel free to contact Poweropt.com and find out how to do all that BS you are talking about and then, if it's not too hard, teach it to me.  Or, I'd be happy to pay $50 a month so you can have an account and track everything and post up all these amazing things you say you can do.  The problem with the old portfolios is they weren't live updated so a lot of things would get away from us – these I can look at regularly during my day and MY ability to track the positions is VERY important.  

    Anyway, have you tried opening the image in a new tab?  That usually makes it bigger for me.  As to having too many portfolios.  We have 3 PSW Portfolios (Income, $25KP and Butterfly) and 2 Portfolios that were set up for the Darwin Group Webinars (STP and LTP).  I think your problem is you are greedy and following all 5 so I suggest you cut down.  No to IRA's that was tried once and no one cared and also, it has nothing to do with what we teach people here since you are restricted from selling premium, which is kind of the whole point of our system.

    Any stock we like is a stock you can buy in an IRA, sell a covered call and be done with it.  Since you are making 100% a year in an IRA, you should be sharing and maintaining a portfolio – then you will get a colored box! 


  121. Futures getting weaker now, RUT failing 1,100 (/TF), /NQ under 3,600, /ES testing 1,880 (very bad if that fails) and /YM at 16,550.  Oil still shortable at $101.95, Dollar 80.31 and TLT $113.  

    All about the data today.  


  122. Phil// WMT missing and down now.  Does it mean that it is a good time to initiate or load some XRT and TZA options?  Thanks.