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December 20th, 2012 at 10:59 am
Metals/DC – Yes, there's a general risk-on sort of rotation going on and it's only held up by cliff worries. If we get rid of that, we can really pop but now no one is really expecting the cliff and that too is dangerous.
MRK/Pharm – I don't care about the drug but it seems to me it isn't big enough to move the needle on MRK, is it? They already bounced off $42 but still down 2.5% on the day seems a bit much.
Simplicity/StJ – I agree with that. We're right there on the edge of the cliff and ready to be pushed either way.
TIPS/8800 – I don't like TIPS. Once inflation kicks in it will be massive and long-term and you can do way better with long call options than you'll do with TIPS. 2 years ago we did "Secret Santa's Inflation Hedges" and those made 100%+ – a bit better than TIPS will do for you. I didn't do them again for this year because we didn't think this would be an inflationary year but either end of 2013 or 2014 we should start getting some action.
Thanks RJ.