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$500 Friday – Follow Philstockworld For Futures Fun!

Wheeeeee!

Our morning Alert to our Members (and Tweeted to our Followers) made over $500 already this morning.  How did you start your day?  

In just 5 minutes we made our first $250 (per contract) of the morning and then we got a chance to re-load at $107.50 at 3:50 where we shorted it again (also noted in our Live Member Chat Room) and second time was already a charm as we got a much nicer run – this time all the way down to $106.75 for a $750 PER CONTRACT gain.  

We're still shorting oil as it retests the $107 line and, if you read yesterday's post, you know why we are shorting oil already but this morning, if you want the late, authoritive word on the subject, the IEA just (7:58 EST) released a statement:

A lightning advance by jihadists across northern Iraq has rekindled concern on oil markets, but the IEA has cautioned that supplies from the leading exporter may not be at immediate risk.

In the past week militants have swept across northern Iraq and were closing in on the capital Baghdad, sparking fears that OPEC's number two producer could be hit and sending oil prices to their highest levels of the year.

'Concerning as the latest events in Iraq may be, they might not for now, if the conflict does not spread further, put additional Iraqi oil supplies immediately at risk,' the Paris-based International Energy Agency said on Friday, on a cautionary note in its monthly oil market report.

USO WEEKLYIn other words, exactly what I told you yesterday!  Of course, CNBC has not reported this news (so far, I'm only finding the report in Australia) – they are still busy mongering fear to drive up the price of oil for their sponsors - so there is still time to short oil Futures (/CL) at $107 before the sheeple wise up, or you can join us in one of the longer-term short plays we put on in yesterday's Live Member Chat (which you can join here).

If you are too cheap to subscribe – I'll give you a hint – we're shorting USO at that $39 line, as well as SCO (as I told you we would yesterday morning) and we're using options for leverage in a trade that can make us up to $6,650 in profit on our $1,350 cash commitment (a 492% return) if oil is under $105 in October.  Still plenty of time to catch that trade this morning.  It was also sent out as an Alert to our Members yesterday morning.    

oilimportsWe do our best to educate our Members at PSW as to the FUNDAMENTALS of a trade.  Fundamentals like the fact that there is no reason that WTIC (West Texas Intermediate Crude) should go from $102 to $107.50 (5%) in a week over a skirmish in Northern Iraq.  

We don't get any oil from Iraq!  In fact, as you can see from this chart, we barely get oil from anywhere outside the US anymore and our inventories are stuffed to the gills and demand in the US, as it is in most of the rest of the World, has fallen off considerably in the past few years:

OilDemand

Forget peak oil, we're seeing PEAK DEMAND for oil pass us by!  Keep in mind that the non-OECD line on the chart above is just 1/4 of all demand and that is barely positive while OECD demand (66M out of 90Mbd demand) has been NEGATIVE since 2008 with the very brief exception of 2011 but, of course, that was only up 2% compated to 2010, which was flat to 2009s 5% decline.  

In other words, the demand NEVER CAME BACK but that fact is being covered up by a cartel of Billionaires who own the supply of oil as well as the media that they control (see excellent History Channel report on the subject).  As I noted yesterday, the "demand" on the NYMEX for 172M barrels of oil that is scheduled to be delivered to the US in July is completely and utterly FAKE and those contracts will almost all be cancelled by next Friday – purposely shorting out country oil just at the start of summer driving season. 

Click for
Chart
Current Session Prior Day Opt's
Open High Low Last Time Set Chg Vol Set Op Int
Jul'14 106.84 107.68 106.70 106.76 08:27
Jun 13

 


-
0.23 45654 106.53 172551 Call Put
Aug'14 106.08 106.84 105.95 106.06 08:27
Jun 13

 


-
0.28 19133 105.78 253867 Call Put
Sep'14 105.05 105.86 104.97 105.08 08:27
Jun 13

 


-
0.26 8735 104.82 178579 Call Put
Oct'14 103.90 104.65 103.87 104.00 08:27
Jun 13

 


-
0.30 5370 103.70 108497 Call Put

What is going to happen over the next 6 trading days is that the July contracts will be cancelled and almost all of those FAKE orders will be rolled into FAKE orders for August, September and October.  We'll keep track of it and you can watch these numbers move from one month to the next.  This is a scam that is constantly run on the American people in order to overcharge them by 10-20% for their energy consumption (see "Goldman's Global Oil Scam Passes the 50 Madoff Mark!").

Since we can't beat them, we may as well join them and play along with the scammers and take advantage of their market manipulation.  

Of course, I prefer to play on the opposite side of the table – taking their fake bets and forcing them to pay us when they manipulate the prices higher, because I feel better about doing that than participating on their side of the table and screwing my fellow citizens – something they seem to have no trouble with at all.  

We're not always Robin Hood.  Yesterday I suggested being the Sherrif and playing the Gasoline Futures bullish to our $3.10 target and this morning we hit our goaaaaaaaaaaaaaaalllllllll!!! and took a $2,520 PER CONTRACT gain off the table.  Not bad for less than 24 hours "work":

That one was a FREE trade idea, right in the morning post, which you can have delivered to your mailbox at 8:30 every morning for less than $1 per day by SUBSCRIBING HERE.  These prices are only good for the summer and will be going up 100% in the Fall.  Yes, that's right, inflation is a bitch but, fortunately, we know how to hedge against it at Philstockworld! 

RUT WEEKLYSpeaking of inflation hedges, the Russell is bouncing off our 1,155 pullback target (as predicted in Tuesday's live Webinar and good for a $2,000 per contract gain) and we like that one bullish with tight stops below that line (/TF Futures).  

This time, we're on the side of the manipulators, who will at least do their best to make things seem better into the open.  

While I'm writing this, oil is down to $106.50 for ANOTHER $500 per contract gain so it's time for me to join our Members in the Chat room. 

Have a great weekend,

- Phil

 


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  1. Still battling the flu… Better but not good enough to get up early!


  2. Oil Lines

    R3 – 111.33
    R2 – 109.50
    R1 – 108.18
    PP – 106.35
    S1 – 105.03
    S2 – 103.20
    S3 – 101.88

    Wow, $10 between R3 and S3… Big move yesterday!


  3. Good morning!  

    Of course take the money and run at $106.50 on a Friday!!!!  (/CL)


  4. Might be worth taking a chance on a YELP bear put spread with no call written.  Considering it's up because of the OPEN deal and nothing else.


  5. Phil; Thoughts on shorting /NG?


  6. hope you get better soon stjean!

     

    Phil--any opinion on the PCLN/OPEN deal?


  7. PCLN buying OPEN for $2.6Bn!   That's $1Bn more (62%) than they were trading for yesterday.  WTF?  This is why it's hard to short this market.  Not only will OPEN shorters be punished (and there's no coming back from a beating like that because the stock will be gone), but so will people shorting similar companies.  Now you guys see why I'm putting our efforts into developing companies for PSW Investments – it's a friggin' gold mine out there the way money is being tossed around!  

    Just as crazy, PCLN is NOT being punished for overpaying $1Bn (or, in the very least $500M) for OPEN, even though PCLN doesn't even make $2Bn a year (yet trades at $64Bn).  

    I'd put in an offer to sell OPEN 2016 $70 puts for $10 (were $13.50 last night) – just in case they fill.   Worst case is the deal falls apart but net $60 not too bad for OPEN, who do actually make a little money ($33M last year).


  8. Good Morning!


  9. Spitting Cobra pattern forming on Big Chart!  

    YELP/Rustle – I wouldn't because someone may defensively buy YELP.  Insane space to try to trade in at the moment.  

    Nat gas/Alpha – We like to trade /NG when it's way too high or way too low.  We took a stab at shorting yesterday at $4.70 but got stopped out right away on that one.  I agree $4.80 is another good shorting spot but it's super-risky and certainly not something I'd generally recommend.  

    Wow, /RB pulled back to $3.06 – that was fast.  This is why we take the money and run when we hit our targets.

    OPEN/Jabob – I think PCLN must be having serious growth issues if they feel they have to buy OPEN to prop up their story.  Of course, there's some logic to getting OPEN's users, who include a lot of upscale consumers, used to clicking on PCLN for things.  However, PCLN makes $2Bn on $7Bn in sales (28%) and OPEN makes $33M on $200M in sales (16%) so the bigger OPEN gets, the worse PCLN's margins will look.  As I said, they must be having serious issues with their own growth to go down this path.  

    Cramer pumping oil on CNBC – what a disgusting bastard!  

    Boom goes the RUT already, 1,157.50 again – that's where they topped out this morning so I'd take $250 and run on that one.   It's just a weak bounce and it's based on the OPEN news, not any big macros.  

    PPI sucked, by the way:

    • Producer Price Index: -0.2% M/M vs. +0.1% expected  and +0.6% prior. +2% Y/Y.
    • Core PPI -0.1% M/M vs. +0.1% expected and +0.5% prior.

  10. LOL, my order to sell 50 OPEN 2016 $70 puts for $10 did not fill.  crying


  11. I bought today's puts no spread just now for a quick trade.  That's why I would buy put, loss is limited, paid .55 for 72.50, bought 10. My downside is not too much.


  12. Looks like you got your wish on FNSR Phil – getting killed this morning after earnings! Sitting on a 50% retracement line now!


  13. Phil OPEN  I would sell a call on that 


  14. StJ // Phil // FNSR
    whacked. I bought back my cover and I'm left with Jan16 $15 calls ( $6.80 )
    Should I cover now with Jan16 $25 short calls, or wait until they recover to complete the spread ?


  15. What the analysts are saying re: FNSR

    Jefferies: Finisar reported mixed Q1 results and provided disappointing EPS guidance driven by a sharp shift in mix towards lower speed (and margin) datacom transceivers sold into Wireless applications, particularly in China. We believe the stock reaction in the after market (down ~22%) is overdone, and we expect EPS growth to resume from here. Maintain Buy. Lowering PT to $25 from $30.
     

    Raymond James: We maintain our Strong Buy rating on Finisar yet expect the stock to trade  lower because of the weak gross margin (shares down 22% after hours). The mix shift towards  Chinese mobile builds hurt margins more than anticipated but also drives more sales. The  longer-term opportunities linked to optical in data centers remain. Investors do not like  surprises; however, our CY15 estimates decline modestly, leading us to lower our target to $28, which still offers significant upside, leading us to recommend buying the shares. Lowering PT to $28 from $35.

    ~~Finisar margins likely to recover in 2H15, says MKM Partners
     After Finisar dropped 20% after-hours on lower gross margin and EPS guidance, MKM Partners expects the company's gross margins to recover in the second half of fiscal 2015. The firm thinks the company has several positive catalysts. It cut its price target on the name to $26 from $30 but keeps a Buy rating.


  16. By the way, I use OPEN all the time – it's fantastic (as an app, not an investment).  

     Wow, another reason it's so hard to short in this market – the reactions to news is beyond extreme:

    • InterCloud (ICLDsays it has become a VMware implementation/systems integration partner, and also that it has opened a New England sales office.
    • Shares are at their highest levels since early April. They're still well below a December high of $19.39.

    It's like value has no meaning at all.  This is a tiny little company that is ONE OF VMW's 1,000 partners now.  There's no news on this company that doesn't come from a PR release and they lost $1 for every $2 in revenues last year.  They may have some long-term potential but they were under $3 a month ago and now $7.35.  

    But again, this is a fantastic market for people who know how to take small companies and make a few little moves and spin the PR and make the charts dance!   

    • Dow +0.05% to 16,743.00. S&P +0.12% to 1,932.50. Nasdaq +0.36% to 4,313.23.
    • Treasurys: 30-year -0.34%. 10-yr -0.27%. 5-yr -0.18%.
    • Commodities: Crude +0.11% to $106.65. Gold -0.03% to $1,273.60.
    • Currencies: Euro -0.06% vs. dollar. Yen +0.36%. Pound -0.22%.
    • Stock futures turn higher, as data shows U.S. wholesale inflation declined unexpectedly last month but investors continue to cautiously eye the violence in Iraq; Dow and S&P +0.1%, Nasdaq +0.2%.
    • Oil prices stabilize after rising earlier, as Iraq’s main oil producing regions remain insulated from imminent threat.
    • European markets trade lower across the board, with the FTSE -1.1% after BoE's Carney said the first U.K. rate hike may come sooner than the markets expected; in Asia, the Shanghai Composite +0.9% after data showed lending surged in May.
    • Intel +7% premarket after raising its outlook for Q2 and the full year, and saying demand for personal computers used by businesses was stronger than expected.
    • Still ahead: consumer sentiment.

     

     

    • YELP +9.4% premarket, Groupon (GRPN) +7.1%, Pandora (P) +3.5%, Angie's List (ANGI)+4.7%, TripAdvisor (TRIP) +3%, and Zynga (ZNGA) +2.3% after Priceline announces it's buying OpenTable for $2.6B (a 46% premium to yesterday's close).
    • OpenTable (OPEN), meanwhile, is up to $104.18 - $1.18 above Priceline's acquisition price – as investors bet a higher offer (perhaps from Google, eBay, or Amazon?) will arrive.
    • The deal is the largest acquisition of a public U.S. Internet company in recent history. - and the timing is unbelievably suspicious!  
    • Short Sterling futures have priced in a 25 basis point hike in British interest rates before year-end following Mark Carney's suggestion yesterday that a rate boost could come sooner than markets expect. The market has also priced in 25 basis point boosts for each quarter of 2015.
    • Looking at U.S. rates, the long-end of the Treasury curve didn't react to Carney's unexpected hawkishness, but the short end is a different story, with the 3-year Treasury yield up 5.5 basis points to 0.952%, the highest since May 2011. Looking at Eurodollar futures, the timing of the Fed's first hike was nudged forward a bit to about April of next year.
    • ETFs: SHYIEFPSTIEITYODTYSBILSTPPUSTSHVTBXVGITFLATVGSH,SCHOGSYITEDTYLSCHRTYDSSTTUZDTULDTUSTBZFIVZDFVLDFVSTYNS
    • The pound (FXB) continues to gain, +0.3% today to $1.6954. In their first reaction to Carney's speech, equity investors sell, with the FTSE 100 -1.1%.
    • ETFs: FXBEWUGBBEWUSFKUDXPSDBUK
    • Previously: Sterling spikes on hawkish Carney comments
    LOL – $3M for $1.5Bn in bank assets – sure, everything must be fine in Greece now:  Citi sells Greek retail business to Alpha Bank
    • Unloading more Citi Holdings assets, Citigroup (C) sells its Greek retail operation to Alpha Bank (ALBKY) for a reported €2M. The sale includes about $600M of GAAP assets, 480K customers, $1.4B in deposits, and $540M in loans.
    • Citi says the sale is part of a plan to expand its focus on corporate and shipping clients in the country.
    • Source: Press Release
    • Actually, I like ALBKY as a flier at 0.26 a share – could be a fun stock to put under your pillow and just see what happens in a year or two.  
    How can this be a surprise to anyone who watches the numbers???  Trading activity slowdown at E*Trade
    • ETFC Daily Average Revenue Trades (DARTs) of 147,661 in May fell 13.8% from April and 9.4% from a year ago.
    • Press release
    • Earlier this week, Ameritrade (AMTDalso reported a slowdown in trading.
    • It wasn't long ago, the online brokerage names (SCHW too) were all reporting fast increases in client activity.
    • SCHW daily average trades of 445.7K in May fell 17% from a month earlier and 12% from a year ago. Daily average revenue trades (DARTs) fell 14% on a monthly basis.
    • Thus far in June, reports, Schwab, DARTs are similar to May levels.
    • Source: Press Release
    • Gulf Keystone (GUKYFGFKSY) climbs as much as 6% in London trading after saying production from its key asset in Iraq's Kurdistan region was proceeding as planned.
    • The company expects production from its Shaikan field to rise to 40K bbl/day of oil by the end of the year, and eight cargoes so far have been sold into the international market.
    • Shares had lost 14% in the first four days of this week on concerns of spreading violence in Iraq.
    • China Eastern Airlines (CEA) has agreed to acquire 80 Boeing (BA) 737s, in a deal worth $7.4B. The planes will be delivered from 2016 to 2020.
    • Boeing has also bought back older planes from the China Eastern Airlines fleet, including 15 737-300s and five 757s.
    • General Motors (GMrecalls 511K Chevrolet Camaros due to a potential driving issue that could lead to loss of power.
    • The automaker says drivers sitting close to a steering column could accidentally bump the car out of a run position if their knee hits the key FOB.
    • The action covers all Camaros sold in the U.S. from 2010-2014
    • In separate actions, GM recalls another 65K cars for different issues.
    • For those scoring at home, GM is providing a running recall tally on its website. The recalls today put GM at 13.79M recalled vehicles in the U.S. for 2014 and 15.8M for General Motors North America.
    • Nathan's Famous (NATH): FQ4 EPS of $0.27.
    • Revenue of $17.33M (+15.8% Y/Y).
    • Press Release
    • A surprisingly strong quarter from Lands' End (LE) following its spinoff from Sears Holdings (SHLD) has caught the attention of retail analysts who expected a few more separation pains.
    • Despite stuck under the stodgy Sears umbrella, Lands' End has a vibrant online presence and a tight rein on costs.
    • Comp sales rose 3.4% at Lands' End in FQ1 to set it apart from the retail slog.
    • What to watch: The company's high mix of revenue from its online and catalog business puts Lands' End on the right side of the "seismic shift" in retail that Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz has forecast.
    • JPMorgan downgrades Lululemon (LULU) to a Neutral rating from Overweight following the retailer's Q1 report.
    • Soft guidance and the tone of Lululemon's conference call has added to an air of caution on the name.
    • Previous on LULU: earningsdetails and guidanceconference call wrapup.
    M&A boosts yet another sector that otherwise should be off on terrible sales (this is so 2007-8):  Teen retailers on watch after Sycamore Partners' Express investment
    • Teen retailer stock could be active today after Express catches the interest of Sycamore Partners.
    • The P-E firm has already collected a few other similar brands to Express in its stable.
    • On watch: Zumiez (ZUMZ), American Eagle Outfitters (AEO), Pacific Sunwear (PSUN), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Wet Seal (WTSL), Vera Bradley (VRA), Aeropostale (AEO).

  17. Holy crap – I read a few articles and the RUT is down 12.5 already!?!  

    This market is such a joke!  


  18. Phil/OPEN,

    Do you think the deal will go through? there are really cheap bear put spread for Jan15 or Jan16 that we can enter and take advantage of a big drop if the deal is cancelled. But it there is a chance then it would be of no use.

    Thanks.


  19. FNSR/StJ – Remind me to read up over the weekend.  Reinharden likes them long-term and I didn't think their earnings were so awful.  Could be a very nice set-up for the LTP.  

    OPEN/Yodi – Could be a bidding war (as idiotic as that would be).  I just stay away from these things because, these days, $2.6Bn is nothing (Ballmer just paid almost that for a basketball team) so it would be very easy for someone to counter with $3 or for OPEN's board to ask PCLN to up the cash to smooth it over with shareholders – some of whom were foolish enough to pay $115 in 2011 (when we were shorting the crap out of them).

    OPEN/Rustle – Those guys are amazing!  They are currently priced at $120,000 per restaurant which is about 5 years worth of revenues so even if we assume they have a 30% profit margin (16% last Q) that’s still a p/e around 25.  The problem is they are not demonstrating anything like the revenues you expect from 20,000 restaurants ($1,000 a month) so we can only assume they are massively discounting the service to get penetration as they are on path for $120M, which is $6K per restaurant or $500 per month so the entire thing is built on a foundation of outrageously optimistic assumptions.  

    Problem number 2 is – how many restaurants do you know that actually take reservations?  I don’t mean write them down on in a notebook but really have a full list of reservations and can’t really seat you unless you called ahead?  That’s their customer base and they’ve already got huge penetration with those kinds of restaurants.  Most restaurants in this country are nothing like that and people just walk in and sit down so they’ll NEVER get past about 25% penetration and that’s only if they have EVERY restaurant that takes any kind of reservation.  

    There are apparently 215,000 full service restaurants in the US so we’re expecting a total population for OPEN of 50,000 (one in 4 non fast-food restaurants) so, with no competition, at full price they get $1,000 a month for $600M and if they drop 30% to the bottom line that’s $180M a year to their $2.5Bn market cap for a p/e of 14.  That’s what they are currently priced for at their CURRENT p/e of 200 – 20x growth in the next 5 years taking over the entire space and doubling their prices and doubling their margins.  So, long-term, I think they are a fantastic short but, short-term – people are idiots!  

    5 OPEN JUNE $115 calls can be sold for $9.60 ($4,800) and that can be covered by 3 Jan $130 calls at $13 ($3,900) for a net $900 credit spread.  If they go higher, the June calls are all premium and the Jan calls have a .42 delta so, by the time you owe the June calls $15 (at $130), the Jan calls should be up to $20 each and you can buy 3 more for $6,000 and then roll the callers along each month.  

    That was very easy money!  

    FNSR/Wombat – Why do you play these idiotic stocks all the time?  We (not you, general) had a whole discussion about why I would not be bullish on them into earnings and how they were in the wrong place in the channel (the middle) to make any calls.  You move is correct (assuming you had a bull call spread) but I'd wait before taking any action to get some idea of how the analysts rate this move and how people react to that next week.  

    FNSR/Albo – As I said, I couldn't see how they'd have good numbers this Q based on the CapEx numbers I've been seeing from the Telcos but, long-term, infrastructure WILL be build and FNSR is bound to get their share. 

    RUT bottomed out at 1,147.50 and back over 1,151 now but now we've got a move from 1,175 to 1,147.50, which should be a 2.5% move to 1,145.62 so let's call that the proper line and down 30 (rounding) so 6-point bounce lines means – TaDa! – 1,151 is a weak bounce line and 1,157 is strong now.  Since we just got rejected at 1,157.50 – that telegraphs that, most likely, the RUT will be rejected again and continue a 5% move down (to 1,116.25 or 1,120ish should be good support), which would be great for our TZA calls – so I'm inclined to keep them if the RUT stays below 1,157 for the rest of the day.  


  20. UNP/pwright – ok, small bite with just one Jan 100/ Aug 105 call diagonal (buy Jan, sell Aug).  


  21. OPEN/Pat – There's no regulatory issues and PCLN has tons of cash so I can't see any reason why I'd risk perfectly good money betting against it.  It's very rare that it's worth playing these things – this is not one of those times.  


  22. Oh sorry, forgot to point out (in case it's not clear) that we now have that Fib line hitting the cross at right about 1,157 (again, you could have used the 5% rule to predict the entire move since topping at 1,175) and that puts us into a triangle squeezey thingy into the close and, if we resolve down over the weekend (the cobra spits), not much support until another 1.25% drop at 1,140, on the way to 1,120.  


  23. HOG – giving up the high road?


  24. OPEN/Phil

    I remember that time, made a lot writing naked calls against them.  BTW, Ballmer's investment in the Clippers will have positive cash flow and hold it's value much better and he will recuperate his investment more quickly than PCLN will with OPEN.  Now we are getting to 1999 again.  With every small internet company not making money yet being bought for billions or trading on the premise that they might be bought for billions.


  25. Phil

    Thanks for the explanation earlier this morning…definitely much clearer


  26. Phil

    Utilities follow road construction, I believe this is a fiber move? If you make a play make it very long term 2016 or buy sell.

    Yesterday I met a great doc who teaches at U Utah, has a condo in Jackson, and does 3 1 day outreach clinics in WY per month. By the time I had the add to pills I drove 250 miles. This morning my BP is down to the danger line! He will talk to another cardiologist that does the open chest next month about the spinal surgery team. I was way over due for some luck but will need a lot closer to goal to go. 


  27. Europe rocketed higher into the close, that gave us a lift (10:30) and now we'll see how we fly on our own.  FTSE down 1%, Dax down 0.5%, CAC down 0.25% (bots, bots and more bots) with Spain and Italy up 0.25% to finish the week.  All were about half a point lower about 3 hours ago.  

    HOG/Scott – I don't live in a part of the country that has a lot of Harley riders, so I don't relate well to that stock.  We did like them when they crashed in '09 because the brand was worth betting on long-term but $70 seems a bit high since, like auto companies, they are only benefiting from ridiculously low finance rates that won't last forever.  

    1999/Rustle – Yep but let's not forget that 1999 lasted a whole year before it popped and guys like us were already calling it ridiculous in January – before a lot of dot coms doubled up again that year.  

    You're welcome Jeff.  Jeff is talking about one of my very rare TA explanations from earlier.  Someone should put that in the Wiki, please.  

    That's good news, Shadow – good luck.

    And people, if you had a good week, please find it in your hearts to contribute a little something to the Shadow Fund – thanks!  


  28. /YM giving us another nice short entry at 16,700.  Remember, Futures entries are nice when you can get in at a significant resistance point above which (in this case) you can set a very tight stop.  It's all about controlling losses – if you can do that, the gains will come.  

    /ES also gave us another shot at 1,930 and /NQ topped out at 3,780 with /TF over-achieving at 1,158 for the moment.  You want to see them all going your way to confirm a short entry.  

    Dollar 80.80 (up a bit), gold $1,274 (flat), silver $19.62 (yay!), copper $3.03 (yuch!), nat gas $4.75 and gasoline $3.067.  Oil $106.70 at the moment – they don't want to give up $106.50 into the weekend. 

     
    • Shares of OncoMed (OMED -19%) are down on higher volume in response to the company's announcement that it has voluntarily halted patient enrollment and dosing in two clinical trails due to higher-than-expected adverse events.
    • In a Phase 1a study of vantictumab, 8 of 63 (13%) patients have experienced bone-related adverse events. In a Phase 1a study of Fzd8-Fc, 2 of 41 (5%) have experienced the same adverse events.
    • After analyzing the data with expert advisors, the company will submit amended protocols to the FDA and subsequently to the trial sites. The amendments will modify the dosing regimens, update risk mitigation measures and enrollment criteria. In parallel, the company will continue existing or modified dosing for those patients in both studies with no disease progression who have not experienced significant drug-related adverse events.

  29. About HOG-I would like to have more of this stock as I see more & more  cycles on the road. When I talk to people they say it is enjoyable & the gas mileage is terrific. It might be even more prevalent in warmer climes, but I am always amazed how daring these drivers are as we have many large animals on the roads; fun to see, deadly if they hit them. My son had only motor bikes in NYC & it was much better for parking etc. It was hair raising with the taxis however. It was like riding a roller coaster-a thrill a minute. With the gas prices not ever really going back to pre GW, I think it maybe a winner. Today down to 69 & change.


  30. Phil-  Did you close out the SHLD play? I am in the Jan15 30/45 BCS at a cost of  6 (pre LE). I think its trading now for about 11.   I am thinking maybe I should close it out.


  31. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cantor-shock-stalls-offshore-corporate-tax-break-congress-215930912--business.html

    Cantor getting the boot may have a time limited positive effect, stop corporate welfare, a scant $95 billion!


  32. One of my favorite tweeters:

    Anyone not following Me on Twitter is going to hell. Seriously. Enough of this not-following Me crap. I'm God, Me-dammit.

    Guns don’t kill the ability to have a rational discussion, people kill the ability to have a rational discussion.

    J. Lo is in the one place in earth where her ass looks normal.

    When people fight and hate and kill over Me I'm obviously very flattered.

    The heat in Delhi will continue until politicians stop saying awful things about rape. I have Kali's blessing on this.

    I am not a fake account. The Bible, however…

    If I could write the Bible again I'd put in more vampires because people seem to love 'em.

    According to the Bible, here is some of the stuff I created for absolutely no reason.

    Seriously Australia, it's decisions like electing PM that make Me glad I made your continent so far away from everyone else.

    Never doubt that a large mass of selfish, fossil-fuel-addicted citizens can change the world. One degree at a time.

    I love My followers in India because to make things easier they outsource My job to hundreds of other gods.

    You have to admit I still make a hell of a lot more sense than Scientology.

    are treated like property in the Bible… but extremely valuable property! Like, worth as much as dozens of cows!

    People who are wrong are just as sure they're right as people who are right. The only difference is, they're wrong.

    The kind of people who associate themselves with Me tend to be the kind of people with whom I’d rather not associate.

    Sex is a sacred, beautiful thing and you should wait to have it until you're absolutely sure you're horny.

    It amazes Me that the same people who doubt that I can be on Twitter have no trouble believing Jesus is on a piece of French toast.

    A racist NBA owner makes about as much sense as a homophobic theater producer.

    No one ever gives the planet what it really wants for Earth Day: all of you dead.


  33. scottmi re: UNP, makes sense; I'm feeling a bit gun shy today and may hold off a bit.  It seems China is getting pretty shaky; I'm now officially in the stew on some containers of lumber en route to there, where customers are trying to cancel or force me into price concessions.  Some distributors are telling us sales are slow and they are having cash flow difficulties to pay for stock on the way to them.  I am wondering if, the stock market needs a good reason to sell off, possibly China will provide one (although the info from over there will be unclear, and the govt and state banks will no doubt be doing what they can to avoid a serious downturn.  It's never easy to know how my myopic view from the lumber business relates to the larger overall market).  I know UNP is mostly domestic US and business looks good, but also since they are tied to international shipping and logistics they may have some exposure to a downturn in China.  So I am sort of reviewing the position a bit on that basis; however with the way these things often go, things can change on a dime.  I think what might be most concerning, is that possibly if the Chinese people themselves start to believe their real estate market is going to tank, it can spread like wildfire; I remember somebody gave me the image of China being a bit like a field of dry grass, all it needs is a spark to get started.  I actually think it won't go that way in the end; there are a lot of different real estate markets in China, and they all probably won't behave in the same way.  But I am in a jam on some loads, and feeling sort of cautious.  Here's hoping it'll clear up and I can cut the "least bad" available deal with these pirates.  Arrghh ! :)   Thanks and good weekend


  34. God / Phil – I have been reading this guy for months. Cracks me up every time. Quite clever I have to say. If you read the responses to his tweet you can see that some people get pretty upset with him!


  35. God/Phil

    That's awesome…I didn't realize how easy it was to communicate with him.  I've been doing it wrong for all these years…


  36. Still laughing….I  knew all along HE has to great sense of humor. There are so many people you just HAVE to laugh at!!


  37. ~~   The kind of people who associate themselves with Me tend to be the kind of people with whom I’d rather not associate

    The religious right should take note.


  38. Shawdow/Doctor stuff

    I hate to meddle..but I can't help but make a comment.  It sounds like you need surgery..which isn't done by a "cardiologist", that would be a cardiothoracic surgeon/thoracic surgeon/general surgeon/etc, which is VERY different.  It's vitally important that you understand WHO is going to operate on you, and why your new doctor referred you to them (are they the best at what they do, or are they best buds and refer to one another preferentially).  Obviously your goal is to get better/feel better, so you need someone who is a true expert, not just some guy that works at a university who some guy told you is good. Please do your homework before agreeing to have an operation and make sure the guy doing it is the RIGHT person…I'm sure you will. Surgery is nothing to be taken lightly, and it takes a lot of training and experience (not luck) to CONSISTENTLY have good outcomes…much like investing (Why people like me need to ask Phil!).  I'm a surgeon so I comment with experience..just trying to help. I'll contribute to the fund as well…that's tangible help and glad folks here are doing what they can to help you. Ok, I'm done…


  39. Here is the HOG play Jan16 BCS @ 55/65 6.70 sell jan16 60p @ 5.05 sell 1/2 jul 14 70c @ 1.17

    Not taking the short call play in to consideration low protection is at 58.42 max profit is at 65 with 815.00 or 63.4% on a capital investment of 1690.00. However your cash outlay on the leap play is only 1.65


  40. Obama about to speak on Iraq – this should be interesting.  

    China/Pwright – We've been expecting that shoe to drop for ages.  Actually, it probably already has but is being massively covered up by the Government over there.  Still, even if that's the case – there's nothing we can do about it until it all finally hits the fan – just like we, in the US, pretended sub-prime wasn't a crisis until it was such a massive crisis that it became a total catastrophe.  

    Responses/StJ – I don't go that deep, I just appreciate the occasional gems he puts out.  Right in line with my sense of humor.  

    The odds of Jesus coming a second time are about the same as those of ANY man coming a second time.

    Great point Jeff, thanks!

    All our lines are being obeyed, RUT crossing back under 1,155 and certainly worth another short there (/TF).   I doubt Obama will say anything that will rally the markets – most likely he'll be sending ships for support. 


  41. Shadow-He probably has to go to the cardiologist first for an evaluation, then he would get the surgeon if they thought it would be safe. I had spinal surgery & had it done by a DO-it was my 6th cervical vertebrae so was a dangerous & tricky operation-one slip & your quadriplegic, BUT I was only 40 & did fine. BTW it was done by Dr. Tommy Kramer, a former quarterback with the Kansas Chiefs who had to get out because of back injury's. .He knew all about back pain etc & did a great job.


  42. jeffdoc

    Your new so my history is I have had multiple surgeries on my neck and they were successful. When my neck was fused they attempted to got to T1 but my neck wasn't long enough. That causes problems and T7,8,9 not sure exact one there. I have 2 spinal surgeons that could do it, front back same time, but no one to split bones and move heart and lungs out of way. I really need a great team that has done it together but no one knows anyone.

    private My neck is fused C3 to C7, I coded on first try to do it. Lumbar L1 to S1 was decompressed, bone fragments and discs removed. Dangerous was why it took many years between operations, no one would touch it after the code. I got to the point of close to total dysfunction, a lytic lesion on C4 had to be addressed. Also I broke C1 that may have caused kicking out but they saved me. 


  43. Pirate

    Good point, cardiology eval is always an important part of the process, just making the point that you really have to understand what's going on.  The process (as you know I'm sure) can be very disconcerting and confusing for many. 


  44. jeff

    I am not confused on any of this, was hurt in 2001, a gazillion doctors, and a few explain things like the guy who did the fuse. The cardiologist yesterday was because my blood pressure went up. 170/130 while on Diovan 320/25. He added Spironolactone 25 that would also help reverse Potassium depletion from the Diovan HCTZ. BP now 155/92! Seems good combo and hopefully it drops back down to where it was in April May.


  45. Phil,

    Do you think MONIF is worth an investment as a Spec on the popularity/future of Mobile banking? Thanks.


  46. YIKES-Shadow. I have 3 bulging in my low back, but the best orthopedic Doc I saw said low success rate on low back so I just keep active to keep the pain under control. I can't even fathom your difficulties. However, my brother went to Canada, Toronto I think & had his back operated on as he couldn't find anyone in the states who would touch him. He owned a brick laying & masonry business & was quite young so somehow had to get back on his feet. Great results again through fusion of the vertebrae. There must be an answer for you.


  47. Is PCLN buying CMG also, it's up 5-10pts per day.  Wish I bought calls instead of writing puts.


  48. private

    My lumbar couldn't be much better, I can walk a mile now and only pain is when I get stupid doing things I couldn't for over 10 years. My very honest surgeon says the reluctance to do lower backs is patient expectations of pain relief when mostly what you get is functionality. My pain is C7/T1 constantly. I know another friend that had the lumbar fixed, I have to constantly remind that the falling and incontinence ended even though it hurts more, forgets why it was done, same guy did it, an excellent surgeon.


  49. Private

    Another problem if L4 not sure up or down but you likely will get cramps, Bad!, in right lower leg, will wake you up screaming. We both get them, thank god not every night.


  50. Phil/IGT

    I had them on my watch list, but pulled the trigger on the $13 puts after you put them on your watch list. Bailed on them for a 55% gain a few minutes ago. Not bad for a couple of weeks work. Leaps are not always boring.

    Thanks!


  51. MONIF/Jcrist – I don't know much about them other than Leon Cooperman likes them, or liked them last year, when they were half the price.  They don't have accessible financials on Yahoo so I'd have to dig a bit, they SOUND like a good play but you'll have to remind me on the weekend so I can pull the financials and take a closer look at what they are doing that's going to take them out of penny stock territory (other than being a $2Bn company trading $1 shares).  

    CMG/Rustle – It was the sell-off from $622 that was overdone, I think $575 is fair and maybe they re-test $550 before getting over $600.  

    IGT/RJ – Very nice, congrats!  Good spot to take a profit, right at the 200 dma ($16).  If they get over, you can simply set up another trade (if you want to bother).  

    That's a good point about having a Watch List – it helps you punch the button when someone confirms your trade or if you hear news that pertains to your trade that pushes your decision point over the edge – keeps you focused!  


  52. Phil   Getting killed and whipsawed on GMCR,what do you think of selling Jan 2015 120 calls @ 15.50..or combo of ????.Thanks..have had a great year so far with your help


  53. FNSR

    I also believe this is a good company but the telcos push is going to continue wireless for some time now, that is not their field. Watch and wait seems best and remember Reinharden got in at $.50. It could go much lower before the country starts fixing and upgrading things.


  54. Shadow

    Got it…you've been through a lot.  If I may, a suggestion.  Since you've had multiple operations and a code during one you would certainly require a very experienced team. Plus it sounds like the surgeons who operated on you previously were unable to expose a portion of your spine due to lack of assistance?  Based on what you've described I would suggest you consider visiting a regional spinal cord center for evaluation if you haven't already.  I trained at one and they are very well equipped to handle complex, reoperative fields, and high-risk patients.  They're used to this since everyone in their region is essentially required to send all complex work to them in their region…because good outcomes can only be achieved with tons of very specific resources, support, and volume.  From what I've looked at there are only 14 in the country, and the closest one to you is in Colorado I believe.  If you're willing to travel, I would suggest Alex Vaccaro or Alan Hilibrand (I had him operate on my mother) at Thomas Jefferson University in Philadelphia.  They are part of the Rothman Institute and are well respected spine surgeons with tremendous experience.  I've operated with both of them and they are very talented…

    Hope that helps, wish you all the best. 

    Here's a list of the regional spine centers in the U.S.

    http://www.msktc.org/sci/model-system-centers


  55. airlines/phil – all took a big knock yesterday (fuel scares?) you like any for new entries here or still too rich?


  56. FNSR

    My memory is Idaho has some push for fiber to small towns. Not sure if it is a go or any other state but those looking to invest might investigate that angle.


  57. cafords, you found block 7907 nice work!


  58. shadow // jeffdoc
    sounds like sound advice
    i took my winnings this morning and bought your plane ticket

    go man. pain is a great teacher – to a point.


  59. bdc – Have found many more than just that one ;) You have mentioned in the past that you were working on fuel cells? Maybe after hours but I was meaning to ask you if there was any progress on that front?


  60. Interesting…./ym, /es, /nq lower…./tf hovers at 1155?  WTF


  61. jeffdoc

    Thank you thank you thank you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    I have been waiting for over a year to get a direction. I want an experienced team. the surgeons I highly respect in Idaho falls don't feel confident with any heart lung specialist and one wouldn't recommend University of Utah, where the cardiologist I saw yesterday is from. Could I refer to you? I would go anywhere, Colorado is close but my research has been less than best. No offense qcmike but mayo clinic is completely out for spinal work, great in other fields. Only issues are expense, follow ups, but I don't fear a great team that does those things. The deadly part is done if no one cuts into blood flow  there.


  62. Shadow

    Here's the U.S. news list for orthopedics, might be more appropriate than the last link (mostly rehab hospitals)…It's a start, generally the big names, have big programs/resources. Jefferson #7 on the list…those guys are no joke.  Look them up.

    http://health.usnews.com/best-hospitals/rankings/orthopedics


  63. GMCR/490 – I don't know what you have but I wouldn't risk selling calls the way they act.  We have Jan $110 puts that are left over from a spread in the STP and they are down almost half but I don't even want to roll them with this crazy action.  Need to see earnings (early Aug) before doing anything with them.  

    Airlines/Scott – I'm with Buffett on that one: "You’ve got huge fixed costs, you’ve got strong labor unions and you’ve got commodity pricing. That is not a great recipe for success."  At last year's meeting, Buffett responded negatively when asked a question about airline investing. “Investors have poured their money into airlines and airline manufacturers for 100 years with terrible results.  It’s been a death trap for investors.”  So you can listen to him or you can listen to me but the last airline I bought was CAL before they got bought (they got too cheap) and nothing since.  

    /TF/Jasu – Probably a function of us shorting it – they don't want to pay off all those bets so they are doing their best to hold it up for now.  

    Oil tapped $107.25 again but back to $107.10 now.  Brent back to $113.35 (down $1) so /CL going the wrong way at the moment – should be $106.50 at most.  


  64. PCLN now down 3% ($1.8Bn) – about what they are wasting on OPEN.  That, at least, makes some sense!  


  65. jeff

    They both point to your recommendation and outcomes there were the highest, orthopedics is a good example, I know people with botched knee repairs and replacements. The 2 good knee replacements were in California and yodi, Germany! My mother was the worst. My knee was repaired and so was my girlfriend, that great guy died at 55. Skiers know knees all too well. Thanks


  66. Shadow

    I don't think any reference from me would help..or I would gladly do that.  I couldn't get my own mother an appointment any quicker than anyone else…the reason being is that they are just so busy they really don't treat anyone as "special".  They have a system that is VERY efficient and well established.  They'll guide you through the process and give you an honest appraisal of what can or cannot be done.  They definitely have all the people there to do ANY exposure, and they work on the levels you need very commonly.  I'm sure several other places on the list would be the same.  Give a few of them a call and see what happens…can't hurt to get an opinion and start somewhere. 

    Things can still go wrong but at least you'll be connected to a good system with resources and experience. That's the key.


  67. CC to review Netflix's peering deals • 1:39 PM

    The FCC wants more details about Netflix's (NFLX +0.6%) direct peering deals with the likes of Comcast and Verizon to gauge their impact, chairman Tom Wheeler states before Congress. "We are looking under the hood."

    Reed Hastings has made it clear he views the deals, which in some cases have led to much betterstreaming speeds for customers, as a necessary evil, and has called for tougher neutrality laws that would make them unnecessary.

    As recent data shows, Netflix speeds still vary considerably from one ISP to another.

    Wheeler's remarks come after a month after he pushed through a neutrality proposal that could open the door to pay-for-priority deals between ISPs and content providers for the last mile, albeit while also seeking comment on whether such deals (fiercely opposed by neutrality advocates) should be banned.

    Traditional Netflix peering provider Cogent (CCOI +0.9%) loses out when Netflix strikes direct peering deals.


  68. jeff Thanks

    I couldn't get a list of places until you posted today. I am not in a big hurry, I have 3 working limbs now and the other issue that I fail on and off is pain control that the government and law enforcement are to blame. Can't even think about it until my bills are controlled, never know there are people that could back the costs. Caring Voice came up with $13,000 for Prealt approved in 20 minutes, all donated money  but I disliked the 2 trials and turned that down. I want my left hand working more than pain control, it could also be causing my right shoulder issue. As you know better to not even say what causes what when nothing is being done, hand is a given, my doc said that. Enough medical for today.


  69. Closest Kmart is closing great discounts! SHLD doing its thing across from Wall-Mart that is building a bigger superstore in a new location. Perfect 2 forever empty eye sores to come. Is this really progress?


  70. http://finance.yahoo.com/ headlined whiskey yesterday today gin, 90% can't afford either to block reality. It will impress the rich guys but cheap beer is loosing sales.


  71. F'ing TBoone on CNBC pumping oil – same formula they always use when engineering a pump in oil prices.  What a scam!  

    SHLD/Cdt – I'm sorry, I just remembered because Shadow said SHLD that you asked a question I never answered (because I meant to give it some thought).  Anyway, yes, we closed when they couldn't hold $40 – before the LTP even fully closed.   The old Jan $30s are $18 and the $45s are $7 so net $11 out of $15 is pretty good but LE is $30 so that adds $10 to SHLD (now $39) to $49 and then there's $2 in cash so $51 means you have a lot of cushion still so no emergency.  I'd ask $19 and offer $6 and see what happens.


  72. Phil // IGT  $15.75
    Covered call blew through - 
    +1000 IGT ( $12.79 )
    -10 Jan16 $10 short calls ( $3.30 )
    -10 Jan16 $13 short puts ( $1.90 )

    Q // If I do get called away, do you keep the entire amount you sold ? 


  73. Phil/oil – since we know the scam just profit and don't get too bitter?


  74. http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/how-whiskey-got-its-groove-back-160336444.html

    $107 per barrel oil, sipping $275 single malt scotch on yahoo finance while stores are closing. What, something wrong.

    2 weeks ago I heard of a single malt ale. The plan is to keep the 1% drunk and blind to reality.


  75. Priceline slides post-OpenTable; Street thinks more deals possible • 2:31 PM

    Priceline's (PCLN -2.8%) market cap has fallen by $1.6B since announcing a $2.6B deal to buy restaurant reservation leader OpenTable.

    With shares of many other local services firms following OpenTable higher – Yelp is up 13.8% – the Street is betting Priceline's move will spark further M&A activity, with some of it possibly coming from Priceline.

    "We see this deal as likely part of Priceline's move into offering a much broader range of local e-commerce services to what is a very attractive customer set," writes RBC (Outperform).

    OpenTable's platform supports 31K+ restaurants and seats 15M+ diners/month. The company towers over the U.S. market, but is seeing growing competition from Yelp, TripAdvisor (TRIP - just bought European leader LaFourchette), Groupon, and other firms going after restaurants unhappy with OpenTable's pricing.

    In spite of the steep price tag – Priceline is paying 9.9x 2015E sales - analyst commentary is mostly positive. Not surprisingly, much of it centers around cross-selling opportunities between OpenTable and Priceline's travel bookings offerings.


  76. Shadow:  I have zero medical training, but I had a lower back surgery to take out destroyed disks quite awhile ago, spent 1/2 year on crutches and another 1/2 with a cane.  And it wasn't really improving much.  So I bought a pool heater for my unused pool, and spent two years doing a range of crunches which put me back on two legs and eliminated all pain.  And I never stopped; can't, really, as I need the supportive musculature.  I realize your condition is very different, but water might help maintain your other muscles. before and after any procedures you may undergo.
     


  77. jabo PCLN

    Government is looking into that.


  78. IGT/Wombat – Fortunately, you were covered.  It was a conservative sell and you will get called away for $10K at some point.  The stock is at $15.76 and the $10 calls are $5.90 ($5,900) and you COULD (not should) roll them to 2x the $15 calls at $2.50 ($5,000) for -$900 and sell the stock for +$15,760 and buy 20 $10 calls for $5.90 (-$11,800) which puts net $3,060 in your pocket after your net $7,590 entry and that would leave you in for net $4,530 on 20 of the 2016 $10/15 bull call spreads with the short $13 puts and your best pay-off is $20,000, which is + $15,470 (341% on cash) vs your current net $7,590 getting called away a $10,000 for a $2,410 profit.  So, I guess it's worth it and you can do 10 instead of 20 to take less risk and it's still a nice upside but it is a risk of your locked $2,410.  I kind of think it's worth it – especially if they do get bought and you cash in early!  

    Oil/BDC – As question asked you poorly structured, answer only if not is.  cheeky

    Whiskey/Shadow – Drinking very popular in economic depressions.  

    Oil just dropped for another $250 gain off the $107 line – don't be greedy!  One of these times we will lose you know…


  79. shadow??? govt??


  80. jabo

    Caught a headline that disappeared before I got back. Investigate some mishandling?


  81. Phil drinking whiskey

    At $275 not the destitute. A few years back was given some of that, way overpriced, to boggy and smokey for my tastes. I can recommend many better about 1/5 that price although still too expensive for my kind. Of course give me a bottle and I would slowly consume it.


  82. Phil – what are your thoughts on AAPL between now and earnings in July? I had been hoping to see $100 post split, and am hoping it is currently taking a breather on it's way there, but I would love to hear your opinion. I know you love them long term.


  83. Energy's gain is Consumer Discretionary's loss. Over 10% spread YTD. Not generally what you want to see.


  84. Fuel for thought since no one is posting. I have a 25 year old John Deer riding mower been sitting for 10 years. Sidewalls of front tires split, unfixable. JD wants over $120 for 2 not put on. I bought 2 made in China from Texas tires $36 shipped. Hope I can install them as that is another $20. This is what is wrong with American business. I can't afford to support local business. I have an old motorcycle battery that I got charged to 11 volts. Hope it can be jumpstarted as the battery is too much, tried EBay and let a damaged one go at $40 when I am not sure I can take the jolting. If I wanted to sell it does anyone think I can recover the cost of battery and tires? I don't!


  85. Whiskey/Shadow – Never got a taste for it.  Probably because my Grandpa would always make me drink it when I was a kid….  I like Wild Turkey.

    1,157.50 again on the RUT.  Got an early start to the run-up today, about 1:45.  

    Oil $106.66 – that means Lloyd is in control! 

    • Dow +0.18%.
    • 10-yr -0.09%.
    • Euro -0.13% vs. dollar.
    • Crude +0.1% to $106.64.
    • Gold +0.16% to $1,276.10.

    President comments on Iraq

    • The President promises a plan to help the Iraqi government is days away, but the U.S. response will not involve sending troops. Low morale and commitment have plagued the Iraqi army for some time thanks to political issues, says Obama, and now it's clear the Syrian civil war has spilled over into Iraq.
    • WTI crude (USO +0.2%) has added a few cents to gains as the President speaks, now at $106.85 per barrel.
    • ETFs: USOOILUCOSCODTOBNODBOCRUDUSLUWTIDWTIDNOSZOOLO,OLEMTWTI

    Pine River fund closes to new investors

    • Up 1.4% this year in what it tells clients is a "challenging" environment, Pine River Capital Management closes its flagship $4.5B Pine River Fund to new investors, citing low volatility and central bank dominance of markets.
    • The fund was ahead 10% in 2013.
    • The move follows that of DE Shaw which shut off its flagship fund last year, and outfits like Baupost and Appaloosa which are returning cash to investors.

    Money still exiting leveraged loan funds

    • Investors pulled another $1.2B out of leveraged loan funds this week, the largest outflow in nearly three years, and the 8th week out 9 that money has exited.
    • It brings net outflows YTD to $2.5B vs. $62.9B of inflows in 2013 when worry over higher rates had money pouring into the floating-rate instruments.
    • ETFs: BKLNSRLNSNLNFTSL
    • Previously: Trouble in loan fund land?

    Report: DOJ wants more than $10B from Citi over mortgages

    • Prosecutors broke off talks with Citigroup (C -0.8%) earlier this week after the bank offered less than $4B to resolve matters related to the sale of MBS during the bubble, reports Bloomberg. The DOJ wants more than $10B, according to Bloomberg's source, and is threatening to file a lawsuit soon if Citi doesn't start talking turkey.

    TD Ameritrade begins disclosing order-routing revenue

    • Responding to the hubbub over high-frequency trading, TD Ameritrade (AMTD -0.2%) today began disclosing order-routing revenue and said it will continue to do so each quarter.
    • In 2013, the company received $236M for routing trade orders to certain venues for execution, up from $184M in 2012. Less than half of 2013's revenue-sharing came from stock transactions, notes Ameritrade.
    • CEO Fred Tomczyk: "The facts show that execution quality for retail investors has never been better … Costs are lower than ever, spreads have narrowed significantly, liquidity has increased, and execution speed has improved. But it can be better."
    • Source: Press Release

    Spreading Iraq turmoil could send Brent crude to $125 and beyond

    • July Brent crude hit a nine-month high of $114.69/bbl earlier today, but has since stabilized at ~$113 after the IEA said Iraqi oil supplies are not at immediate risk; most of Iraq’s oil production, export facilities and reserves are in the largely Shia areas in the south, where Islamist rebels enjoy little support.
    • But such a forecast assumes the conflict doesn't spread; if it does, there is "no doubt" that Brent could reach $125/bbl and beyond, says PVM Oil Associates' David Hufton, who adds that Saudi Arabia has 2M bbl/day of capacity it can turn on fairly quickly but that leaves no spare capacity margin.
    • Even if the insurgents don't advance to the south, the long-feared fragmentation of Iraq along sectarian lines has been set in motion, which damages the outlook for investment and production growth in Iraq in coming years, a period when Iraqi supply additions are critical to market balances, according to analysts at Energy Aspects.
    • ETFs: USOOILUCOSCODTOBNODBOCRUDUSLUWTIDWTIDNOSZOOLO,OLEMTWTI

    UBS sees lower gold prices, lower share prices for Barrick

    • Barrick Gold (ABX +0.8%) is higher despite UBS' move to lower its target price for the shares to $18.50 from $21.75, citing a lack of fresh demand for gold coupled with the improving U.S economy that will result in gold remaining in a range-bound state.
    • UBS thinks the recent gold price push has arisen mostly from short-covering rather than the emergence of new buyers, and believes the Fed "will not alter their tilt toward tapering nor interrupt their debate about when to tighten and how quickly" given the emergence of encouraging U.S. economic data points.
    • The firms forecasts gold prices declining from $1,300/oz. to $1,200/oz. in 2015.

    Only in half – BUYBUYBUY!!!  Cliffs Natural EPS estimates cut in half by Deutsche Bank

    • Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF +2.3%) has tumbled 20% in the last month but it's enjoying a dead-cat bounce today, even as Deutsche Bank is the latest to predict tougher times ahead for the iron miner.
    • DB is cutting its estimates for 2014-16 seaborne iron ore prices by an average of ~$10/ton (-9%) to average ~$97/ton during the period ($5/ton higher than current spot prices), reflecting the ~33% YTD price decline and the potential for lower Chinese demand.
    • For CLF, DB lowers its 2014-16 EBITDA estimates by 11%-29% and EPS by 46%-84%, on reductions of 3%-8% in iron ore price realizations.

    European automakers argue for less regulation

    • European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association President Carlos Ghosn calls on EU policy makers to allow the industry the flexibility to innovate.
    • The Renault CEO says the EU needs to be "technology-neutral" as well as remove non-tariff barriers and invoke regulatory cooperation.
    • European automakers (PEUGYVLKAYDDAIFRNSDFBAMXY) have argued in the past that strict EU regulations have kept them stuck in neutral.
    • ROFL – What a load of crap.  Revenue Growth 19.1% from 2011 to 2012 (most recent I could find):

    Huge disappointment!  Borgata reports May online casino totals

    • Borgata (MGMBYDreports it earned $4M from its online gaming operations in May.
    • Though the casino operation improved its stand-alone market share by 200 bps to 29.8%, the level of revenue is far below early projections.
    • The Massachusetts Gaming Commission gives MGM Resorts (MGM +1.7%) the first casino license to operate a property in Springfield, Massachusetts.
    • MGM Springfield has been in a two-year review process to gain the approval.
    • Holding company MacAndrews & Forbes is interested in bidding for IGT, as are P-E firms Apollo Global and Carlyle, Reuters reports.
    • The news service reported on Monday IGT had "attracted interest from other gaming companies as well as private equity firms," but didn't give names.
    • Scientific Games (SGMS) and Bally (BYI) are once more following IGT higher.
    As if they are all the same thing:   GrubHub, LiveDeal, Coupons.com join OpenTable-fueled rally
    • GrubHub (GRUB +7.8%), LiveDeal (LIVE +3.9%), and Coupons.com (COUP +6.9%) have joined Yelp, Groupon, and others in rallying following Priceline's $2.6B deal to buy restaurant reservation bookings kingpin OpenTable.
    • LiveDeal runs a restaurant deals platform, and GrubHub runs the top U.S. online restaurant deliver/takeout platform. Coupons.com provides online grocery coupons.
    • Yesterday: LiveDeal jumps after reporting strong traffic growth
    You don't need ACTUAL M&A when rumors will suffice:  Cree higher following M&A rumors
    • Vague M&A rumors are giving a lift to Cree (CREE +4.3%). Shares are at their highest levels since tumbling in April due to light EPS guidance.
    • Speculation that GE or Philips could bid for the LED lighting/component vendor has been around for years. ~10% of the float was shorted as of May 30.

  86. Phil // IGT
    Wow – you're a wonderful freak : > How do you do that ?! I followed this one – done. I guess I need another 10,000 hours to come up with these myself.

    Thanks == >>>


  87. ~~ I like Wild Turkey. Phil

    I would not drink that rot gut, no wonder why you hate whiskey. Try The Macallan 12 year or more single malt Scotch, let it breath for a while. Most places less than $50 NJ may be much more and the 15 year up will double that to oh my god!


  88. Unconfirmed….Iraqi PM Maliki is dead.


  89. pharmboy that may explain the drop.


  90. AAPL/Craigs – I think it's a good, healthy pullback.  In the Income Portfolio, we sold the Jan $550s (now $78.57) and cashed out our long calls when they popped and then AAPL went up more than we thought but we kept the short calls because we thought there would be a pullback to at least $600 (now $85.71) before running to $700.  

    We did add the 2016 $600/750 bull call spread but, finally, we'll be able to do something with the short puts (assuming AAPL stops dropping).  AAPL is not immune to the market and usually has a flush down ahead of earnings (after July expiration) but it's not the kind of stock you want to get wrapped up watching the short-term moves on.  Generally, if they hold $85, they are on track and, if they don't, I'm thrilled to roll my longs down to lower strikes and widen my spreads.  

    Great chart Pharm – illustrates my point nicely.  

    $107 rejected yet again on oil – it's like they just keep giving us FREE MONEY!!!

    Problem/Shadow – You can't compete with slave labor and no environmental controls.  That's the Conservative solution – turn the US back into an industrial wasteland so you can get your $36 tires locally.  Or, we could increase import duties to give US businesses reasonable protection.  Maybe there's a degree of excess profit from DE (the tires they sell are probably made in China anyway) but somewhere in between is the answer – you can't just keep going to the lowest denominator or all countries will inevitably meet at the bottom.  

    LOL Wombat – You are certainly welcome.  Hey, you are following it and that was a complex swap – think how far you've already come in a couple of years.  I wouldn't have even bothered suggesting that to you last year as you would have been dumbfounded – so I'm very proud!  

    Whiskey/Shadow – My Grandpa had all the best stuff and in Japan I tried their top stuff too – it's just not for me.  My current favorite drink is having the Cheesecake Factory guy mix a shot of 151 in with a Tropical Frozen Smoothie – that occurred to me last month when I had a meeting there and now I'm craving them on a hot day!  

    Makiki/Pharm – I think I can confirm that he's certainly not dead – that would have hit the wire and gotten a bigger reaction by now (30 seconds later, in fact). 

    Oil $107 again – I keep thinking it won't work but it keeps working!  


  91. seems to be no truth to PM death


  92. SHLD/Phil
    What did you mean when you said "I'd ask $19 and offer $6" on SHLD? Thank You.


  93. Phil 151

    That runs chills down my spine even in a smoothie. That shit is to get drunk, try the 180 bootleg moonshine, same taste and more potent.


  94. Hexra8-- Since I had a Call spread on, he was suggesting that i ask 19 for the calls I own and offer 6 for the ones I am short.


  95. Ka-ching again on oil!!!  

    SHLD/Hex – I'd ask for $19 to sell the calls and offer $6 to buy back the short calls and, if one fills, then you can decide what you're willing to take for the other.  


  96. Happy Father's Day to all the fathers out there!


  97. This is what we call consolidating for a move BELOW support:

    Notice how, every day, they jam it up one bracket into the close – but it doesn't improve things the next day…

    Remember when I said that spike on Monday was BS?  Turns out it was BS….  Just gave the Banksters a pumped-up position to sell to bagholders from for the rest of the week.  That's what's so great when you condition people to buy those dips – they can't help themselves at this point.  

    This guy is funny too:

     


  98. 151/Shadow – That was my go-to drink in college.  I still like it.  Moonshine not quite as tasty.  

    Damn, I forgot about this – this was too f'ing funny! 

    Have a great weekend folks!  

    - Phil

    Rut 1,157 on the button!  


  99. moonshine/Phil

    Apple Pie Moonshine is very tasty.


  100. Phil

    I can't believe there is a difference. Tried both when you were maybe 10 they don't taste, they burn. You may be surprised but I don't like intoxication, I was given little bits starting at 5 on holidays. Wish those pain clinic jack asses would believe that, if it makes me woozy it is only once.  


  101. shadow – just sent you 500 gre, my hope is the concept is successful and this will help.


  102. Phil || Reminder || Rolling

    A few weeks back we had a good discussion on rolling BCS's.   We talked about making some time in the webinar to go over strategy on this topic.  So here is your reminder.  See if you can fit it in somewhere in the next few weeks.  It could lower your noise floor as I know you get swamped with these questions.

    On that topic, refresh my memory, you consider rolling when the cost of the current long call dips below the net spread value.  Is that the current net spread value or the spread value at the time the trade was put on?

    Thanks as always.

    Happy Fathers Day


  103. johnO – It’s the spread value at the time the trade was put on.


  104. zeroxzero

    I have no access to a pool but bought a hot tub when I built the house. I got nausea from the heat and it has been empty for 10 years. Like I said my lower back was magic and you sound closer to normal. I was able to stand the next morning after surgery and in 3 months walk a mile. My neck second operation, fused was close to the same except where he couldn't get to. I couldn't recommend him more. He did another and they had similar results except lower back pain worse than before. I believe few do it right and one should never have spinal surgery for only pain. I want my right hand use back and if the pain from that goes away all the better. Fusing ends most pain but avoid in lower back because usually the levels around the fuse fail soon, back for more, until you can't bend. My hand needs only extending fuse 1 level to T1 that he couldn't reach from the neck. A level lower than that effects ribs mussels around your heart but the experts don't say a word because like T1 they can't do it here. I wonder about blood pressure and that lower thoracic issue, way to erratic and went from low to high and back a few times. My big issue is diastolic, lower number, you won't find anyone else with that, right now I am 138/98 top good bottom bad. Few doctors say more than they have to. 


  105. PCLN/OPEN – Phil, is there a spread opportunity to play between these? And if so can it be done with options or best with actual stock?


  106. Phil.   What's your feeling for next week. A little more slow decline? Or do we climb over 1165 and challenge 1180 on the RUT?