Posts Tagged ‘CNBC’

Thrilling Thursday – Rejection at S&P 2,000

SPY 5 MINUTEOh my God, it's dip!  

The Futures are off a bit today and that's no surprise to those of us who have been paying attention to the volume, or lack thereof, as we made our final approach at the 2,000 line on the S&P 500.  Jim Cramer was literally foaming at the mouth this week as he and his CNBC co-conspirators herded the sheeple into the markets to participate in the tail end of the rally, where the suckers could hold the bags for their Corporate Masters.  

Why am I angry at Cramer today?  Because yesterday he committed the same crime he commtted in 2008 that cost so many people their life's savings – he told people not to sell their stocks on a pullback.  "Don't take profits" is the message for the viewing public.  But, I would ask, if people don't take profits – when will they ever get profits?  What kind of stupid message is that?  Well, it's the message that leaves you holding the bag while his hedge fund buddies head for the exits.  It's not much different than telling one group of people not to leave a burning building while you make sure all your friends are getting out safely.

"This is not just my opinion. I can prove it to you empirically. See, as I was preparing to write my book "Get Rich Carefully," I went over the previous five years of trades made by my charitable trust. And as I reviewed those trades I noticed that far too often, my good judgment would be overcome by excessive skepticism."

If the "proof" Jim is talking about is his Action Alerts Plus, then I'd say you really should think long and hard about following his advice here (via Kirk Lindstrom – who does compete with Cramer):

Jim Cramer's Action Alerts Plus Performance & Returns

I guess, sure, Jim legitimately should regret that he wasn't more bullish from 2008 to 2013, when the market popped 200% and his trust gained about 100% but don't you think the lesson Cramer should be taking from that experience is to CUT YOUR LOSSES, not
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$500 Friday – Follow Philstockworld For Futures Fun!

Wheeeeee!

Our morning Alert to our Members (and Tweeted to our Followers) made over $500 already this morning.  How did you start your day?  

In just 5 minutes we made our first $250 (per contract) of the morning and then we got a chance to re-load at $107.50 at 3:50 where we shorted it again (also noted in our Live Member Chat Room) and second time was already a charm as we got a much nicer run – this time all the way down to $106.75 for a $750 PER CONTRACT gain.  

We're still shorting oil as it retests the $107 line and, if you read yesterday's post, you know why we are shorting oil already but this morning, if you want the late, authoritive word on the subject, the IEA just (7:58 EST) released a statement:

A lightning advance by jihadists across northern Iraq has rekindled concern on oil markets, but the IEA has cautioned that supplies from the leading exporter may not be at immediate risk.

In the past week militants have swept across northern Iraq and were closing in on the capital Baghdad, sparking fears that OPEC's number two producer could be hit and sending oil prices to their highest levels of the year.

'Concerning as the latest events in Iraq may be, they might not for now, if the conflict does not spread further, put additional Iraqi oil supplies immediately at risk,' the Paris-based International Energy Agency said on Friday, on a cautionary note in its monthly oil market report.

USO WEEKLYIn other words, exactly what I told you yesterday!  Of course, CNBC has not reported this news (so far, I'm only finding the report in Australia) – they are still busy mongering fear to
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Media: What Isn’t Priced In Yet?

Courtesy of Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker

One of the toughest calls to make here is whether or not we’ve got enough negativity in these S&P 500 levels yet.  The answer is that we’re probably almost there in terms of apathy and disgust for stocks, but valuations aren’t yet alarmingly cheap and there is some difficulty in determining whether Europe has gotten close enough to the abyss to drop the big money bomb on it’s problems just yet.  The washout, in my opinion, is still out there somewhere…

I dropped in on the CNBC Street Signs gang for a live taping from New Jersey today, we talked about this very subject and Hedgeye’s Keith McCullough was also in the mix.  Enjoy!

Source:

CNBC 


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Thrilling Thursday – Comedy or Tragedy?

Russell 8-0-0, Russell 8-0-0! Wherefore art thou Russell8-0-0?  Deny thy dollar and refuse to fall, or, if thou spike not, be but consolidating at resistance and I’ll happily Capitulate….

If it's good enough for fair Juliet, it's going to have to be good enough for us as the Russell finally makes it over our 800 target – the last barrier that was keeping us on the bearish side.  Above these lines – it's time to stop worrying and love the rally as we romanticize the deadly combination of QE2 the Obama tax cuts as: "A pair of star-crossed lovers take their life, whose misadventured piteous overthrows doth with their death bury their parents’ strife."

Of course Willie Shakespeare has nothing on Jimmy Cramer, who's pearls of wisdom are also sure to be repeated centuries from now.  Last night the Bard of Wall Street sang a veritable sonnet in praise of the stock market and foretold a tale of woe for anyone dumb enough to take profits into this rally:

 

We got the correction this morning, Dow fell 35 points…  Today's action was proof positive that you need to stop worrying and learn to love corrections…  What scares me, and what should scare you, is that if you sell your stocks here, you won't be able to get back in.  You should be worried about stocks getting away from you, because I think we can be on the verge of something big – something very positive.   FORGET the fact that stocks have run up a lot in the last 6 months.  For more than 10 years, this market has done nothing, THAT is the most important frame of reference…

What's changed?  We are finally starting to see big breakouts from a slew of breakouts from several large cap companies including: CAT, UTX, FCX, SWK, CBE, ETN, CSX, UNP and so many other big industrials.  Ladies and gentlemen, we have waited over a decade for this move and what do people want to do now that it has arrived?  They want to sell!  That's right, they want to sell.  That's right.  They want to dump the stocks (sell button sound effect) because they are up


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Fake-Out Thursday – Oil Scam Continues Unabated

 
What a joke the oil market is!

First of all, the NYMEX contracts for January delivery close on Tuesday and there are still 132,168 open contracts or 1,000 barrels each (132M) scheduled for delivery to Cushing, OK, a facility that can handle at most, 45Mb of crude and is, at the moment, full.  The price of those barrels surged from $86.82 all the way back to our shorting target of $89 yesterday, where we once again had a nice ride down.  Now, in pre markets, it is back over $89 again and we’ll short it again so I’m not complaining about the action but I am upset that this blatant rip-off of the American consumer can go on right under our "leadership’s" noses.  

Logic alone dictates that if 132M barrels are on order for delivery to a storage facility that can only handle 45M barrels that the orders are mostly bogus.  You can track the open interest every day right here so don’t take my word for it, watch what happens over the next few days as the people who are currently pretending to demand oil in January, roll their contracts to pretend demand for February (already at a ridiculous 268M barrels), March (172Mb) and April (60Mb).  Like the great Carnac, I will put the envelope to my head and predict that, by Tuesday, the January barrel count will fall to under 30,000 contracts, while the new front three months will rise by close to 100,000 contacts.  

This is scam #1 in the energy market and it goes on every month since the "Commodity Futures Modernization Act" of 2000 made it possible for thieves to run the energy markets with virtually no regulations.  I’ve been speaking out on this for years and just this weekend, the NYTimes picked up the ball I tossed up over a year ago (better late than never!), when I pointed out that the Global oil scam was costing us 50 times more than the Madoff scandal EVERY YEAR!  We’re not going to go into all that again as I want to highlight scam #2 in the energy markets and that is the weekly manipulation of the oil inventory reports.  

Florida GOP Lawmakers Live For Big Oil ImageYesterday, Criminal Narrators Boosting Crude were very excited to report
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Thursday Thrust – Just Buy the F’ing Dips!

It's very sad when you can get your best financial advice from cartoon characters.

I apologize for the language but  this video pretty much says it all.  As the man in green says:  "Buy the f'ing dip, you f'ing idiot."  That's the entirety of the market strategy we are being trained like Pavlov's dogs to follow.  Also as the man says "Now, don't forget this only works if you go out and tell all your friends and family to do the same.  That way, when they are buying more expensively than you, you can sell back to them and collect your money."  

Of course it's a Ponzi scheme but it's a gigantic, legal one and the best thing about it is that the Government FORCES everyone to play so you never run out of suckers.  When there is a lack of actual new sucker/investors to put money in, the Government steps in with stimulus or buys equities (QE1) or buy Treasuries from the banks so they can have free capital to buy equities with (QE2).  They debase the currency and drive inflation higher while talking it up even more so and virtually penalizing people for saving money and not shopping.  In this way, the US Government places a tax on every single citizen through a systemic devaluation of their lifetime accumulation of wealth as well as unfavorable savings and inflation conditions that are aimed to force money into equities and commodities.  

What is the logic to this?  Well, none if you are a government that actually cares about the long-term benefit of 310M people but we haven't had a government that was "for the people" since they put two in the back of Kennedy's neck so why complain about it now? What we should be doing is celebrating the sheer stupidity of the situation and enjoying the ride as this stock market roller coaster clacks up the tracks – towards a drop that is certain to have investors screaming all the way down but, for now, let's listen to what the Bernanke Bears have to say in their latest cartoon about the Bank America crisis with WikiLeaks as well as their advice on NFLX and CRM:

Now, what could be more simple than that?  Just take all…
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More Thoughts on Larry Summers’ Goodbye

Barry Ritholtz discusses Larry Summers’ departure on Fast Money.


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THE HOUSING DOUBLE DIP – ARRIVING EARLIER THAN EXPECTED

THE HOUSING DOUBLE DIP – ARRIVING EARLIER THAN EXPECTED

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

I have to say that I have been enormously impressed by Diana Olick’s work at CNBC.  She provides superb fact based analysis and reporting.  Today, she reports that housing prices have already started to decline.  While prices lag sales even she did not expect to see this sort of price deterioration this early:

Source: CNBC 


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16th Sequential Equity Fund Outflow Takes Total To Over $50 Billion YTD; Retail Boycott Of Stocks Continues

16th Sequential Equity Fund Outflow Takes Total To Over $50 Billion YTD; Retail Boycott Of Stocks Continues

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

The latest anticipated weekly outflow from equity mutual funds just hit a one month high of $2.7 billion, as reported by ICI, and with that, YTD redemptions by equity investors have hit over $50 billion. Domestic equity mutual funds have not seen a net positive retail inflow since April 28, yet despite this the market has been substantially rangebound and until last week. What is notable is that even during times of relative stock outperformance, courtesy of whoever it is that is left buying stocks, be it HFT algos, or Primary Dealers pumped with cheap Fed liquidity (and don’t forget today is another "free $2 billion courtesy of POMO" day), the investing public refuses to be drawn into owning stocks. CNBC has now failed to sucker its viewers into the stock ponzi for 16 weeks in a row and rising. The clear capital rotation winner- the bond bubble, but that is the topic for another week.

 


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Jim Rogers Calls CNBC Bullsh*t On CNBC

Jim Rogers Calls CNBC Bullsh*t On CNBC

Courtesy of Jr. Deputy Accountant 

No seriously.

"It is PR, they got the stocks up, that’s the whole purpose of PR, make the stocks go higher. That’s what CNBC and many many PR agencies are all about."

[Daily Bail]


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Phil's Favorites

The risk of 'cascading' natural disasters is on the rise

 

The risk of 'cascading' natural disasters is on the rise

Deadly debris flows came to Los Angeles after heavy rain pounded wildfire-scarred land. AP Photo/Reed Saxon

Courtesy of Farshid Vahedifard, Mississippi State University and Amir AghaKouchak, University of California, Irvine

In a warming world, the dangers from natural disasters are changing. In a ...



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Zero Hedge

China Slams Pompeo's "Ignorant And Malicious" Debt-Trap Warning

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

The Communist Party's simmering antipathy toward Secretary of State Mike Pompeo - which was on full display earlier this month during an unprecedented public confrontation between Pompeo and his Chinese counterpart during a meeting in Beijing - boiled over once again this week as a series of editorials in China's Global Times and China Daily newspapers attacked the secretary of state over remarks he made during a recent tour of Latin America, where he warne...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Oct 21, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

After the heavy selling the week prior there was sure to be an oversold bounce and indeed last Tuesday brought much of that.  It is always interesting to see what happens after that bounce – often in this bull market, once the indexes turn back up they move like a freight train.  This time – thus far at least – the action has been less aggressive.  Selling on Thursday took the S&P 500 right back down to the 200 day moving average and rally attempts Friday were fruitless.  In whole the S&P 500 barely budged for the week.

Yields on the 10 year have thus far held their own “breakout” level:

The Chinese market had an interesting Friday with an “...



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Insider Scoop

Morgan Stanley Downgrades A Fleet Of Freight Stocks

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related UNP 8 Biggest Price Target Changes For Monday Benzinga's Top Upgrades, Downgrades For October 22, 2018 ...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Stock Market Crash Deja Vu? Keep An Eye On This Pattern!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Just over 3 weeks ago, I shared a chart looking at the divergence that has been brewing under the surface of the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY). Since that post, the S&P 500 finds itself in a deep pullback, with other key stock market indices hitting correction territory at their lows.

Today we provide another look at the divergence and highlight why it’s time for investors to pay closer attention. In the chart below, we compare today’s setup to 2000 and 2007 and the market crashes that followed.  Note, though, that we have NOT broken trend support yet.

Similar to today, in 2000 and 2007 the S&P 500 made a...



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Digital Currencies

Grocers: Get ready to join the blockchain party

 

Grocers: Get ready to join the blockchain party

Five people died and more than 200 got sick during a 2018 E. coli outbreak, the largest in more than a decade. The bacteria was traced to contaminated romaine lettuce. (Shutterstock)

Courtesy of Sylvain Charlebois, Dalhousie University

In the wake of this year’s large E. coli outbreak, Walmart notified its leafy green suppliers that they must be using blockchain technology to trace their products before the end of 2019.

Walmart, one of the world’s largest retailers, has be...



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ValueWalk

Vilas Fund Up 55% In Q3; 3Q18 Letter: A Bull Market In Bearish Forecasts

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The Vilas Fund, LP letter for the third quarter ended September 30, 2018; titled, “A Bull Market in Bearish Forecasts.”

Ever since the financial crisis, there has been a huge fascination with predictions of the next “big crash” right around the next corner. Whether it is Greece, Italy, Chinese debt, the “overvalued” stock market, the Shiller Ratio, Puerto Rico, underfunded pensions in Illinois and New Jersey, the Fed (both for QE a few years ago and now for removing QE), rising interest rates, Federal budget deficits, peaking profit margins, etc...



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Members' Corner

Why obvious lies still make good propaganda

 

This is very good; it's about "firehosing", a type of propaganda, and how it works.

Why obvious lies still make good propaganda

A 2016 report described Russian propaganda as:
• high in volume
• rapid, continuous and repetitive
• having no commitment to objective reality
• lacking consistency

...

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Biotech

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Breast cancer type 1 (BRCA1) is a human tumor suppressor gene, found in all humans. Its protein, also called by the synonym BRCA1, is responsible for repairing DNA. ibreakstock/Shutterstock.com

By Jay Shendure, University of Washington; Greg Findlay, ...



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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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