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Wednesday Worries – Will GDP Be Revised Down Again?

Does this look healthy to you?

We did manage to pull out of a tailspin back in 2011 – the last time our GDP went negative but, funny story – in July of 2011, the S&P fell from 1,350 to 1,100 by August 9th and it gyrated between 1,100 and 1,200 until October when the Fed's "Operation Twist" (because "Operation Screw the Poor" got bad test scores) gave us a boost.

Notice how this post picks up right where yesterday's post left off – I'm clever that way!  Yesterday we had the chart that showed us that 10% of our GDP ($1.5Tn) is the result of Fed fiddling and, without it, the GDP would be right back at those 2009 lows.  Whether or not you THINK QE will ever end, you sure as hell better have a plan for what you will do in case it does!  

Russell Investments put out their Economic Indicators Dashboard yesterday and it's a nice snapshot of the where the economy is.   

The lines over the boxes are the 3-month trends and, thanks to the Fed, 10-year yeilds are just 2.48% and that's keeping home prices high (because you don't buy a home, you buy a mortgage).

Inflation is creeping up and expansion (today's topic) is negative and getting lower.  Meanwhile, consumers remain oblivious as the Corporate Media fills them with happy talk.  Meanwhile, this BLS chart (via Barry Ritholtz) says it all as manufacturing (good) jobs continue to leave our country at alarming rates:

Almost all of the growth spots are from fracking with a little auto production picking up as well.  Overall, 1.6M net manufacturing jobs have been lost since 2007 and, much more alarming, the median household income for those lucky enough to still have jobs is down almost 10% over the same period of time.  

In other words, if it wasn't for Fed Money, we'd have no money at all!  In yesterday's Webinar (replay available here) we talked about how the Fed is like a guy spraying a hose on kids in the back yard – he isn't making it rain for real, but the kids are still going to get wet.  That's what stocks are at the moment, a bunch of kids who are atificially wet – but don't bet on them to stay that way after the water is shut off because there's no rain in site!  

While our long-term Portfolios remain bullish for as long as the Fed keeps the hose turned on, we're still using our Short-Term Portfolio to hedge for a correction (2011's was 18.5%, which would take us back to about S&P 1,600) as well as our Futures bets, like /NKD short at 15,400, which made a quick $500 per contract in last night's fall to 15,300.  

SPY 5 MINUTEMembers get to hear these picks LIVE in our weekly Webinars and LIVE every day in our Member Chat Room – where we also picked a Russell Futures (/TF) short at 1,187.50 at 11:37, which is now good for over $2,000 per contract at $1,167 this morning.  This morning I sent out an alert to short Oil Futures (/TF) at $106.25 and we got a .10 move ($100 per contract) and then a cross back to $106.50, where we shorted again and now (8:29) we're back to $106.30 for another $200 per contract gained. 

8:30 Update:  Oops, I spoke too soon as Durable Goods just came out at -1% and that's bad but the GDP is TERRIBLE at -2.9% vs -1% previously.  That should send us back below $106 on oil and lower on our indexes as well.  If S&P (/ES) 1,940 breaks, those Futures are a good short below that line as it's an easy stopping point (heavy resistance).  

Don't worry though, Corporate Profits were UP 5.3%, mainly because they decreased their capital consumption by $198.3Bn as the "job creators" continue to magically create no jobs at all (unless you are a tax-avoidance expert).  

They also paid out $87.1Bn less dividends, leaving an extra $139.1Bn in undistributed profits on the books.  Due to fines, the Financial Sector was a drag this quarter, down $52.6Bn from Q4 against the Trillions they've already stolen.  

Corporate profits have never been higher and relative wages have never been lower.  It's not good for America, it's not good for our Citizens but it's FANTASTIC for our Corporate Masters.  As long as the Fed and the other Central Banksters keep feeding the beast, they will be able to continue to fiddle while the Global Economy burns around them.  As I noted yesterday, I am concerned that we are at peak Monetary Accomodation and peak Abuse of Workers and that means we may be seeing peak Corporate Profits – but we're not going to fight the Fed.

Very likely the poor GDP numbers will be spun as "bad news is good news" by the MSM and we'll hear about more ways the Fed can stimulate what is now, undeniably, an economy that is back in recession (but do not expect to hear the "R" word from anyone who is allowed on TV).  

As I noted yesterday in our Portfolio Review – we reamain "Cashy and Cautious" – at least until after 14th, when we'll have a good amount of Q2 earnings to look at.  

Can our Corporate Masters pull off another miracle and prosper while simultaneously crushing the Middle Class?  Don't forget, it's an election year and those in power would hate to have the markets in a massive slump while they are hitting the top 1% up for donations – so expect all stops to be pulled out to avoid a repeat of the summer of 2011 (when we also had a low-volume rally in the 2nd half of June) .  

Tune in this summer – but watch out for that first step – it can be nasty!  


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  1. Here is the Big Chart from yesterday. Could not post earlier as we had some Internet failure here in Canada and phone service is not good enough for tethering…

  2. Oil Lines

    R3 – 109.62
    R2 – 108.56
    R1 – 107.64
    PP – 106.58
    S1 – 105.66
    S2 – 104.60
    S3 – 103.68

  3. Phil- To clarify, at 9AM /ES is just under 1940, so a short here with what target? Also /CL is bouncing around just above 106, so a short here as well? 106.10 to be exact.

  4. Good Morning!

  5. Well everyone GDP -2.9% is no surprise and just think how bad it would be if they hadn't changed how it is computed last year. Maybe we can add land fills and sewer treatment this year, natural gas. I have more bad news and that is it seems slower than the first quarter with no time left for Q2.

  6. Stjeanluc

    Thanks for app I used it yesterday it work great

  7. StJ / oil


    Your lines are expanding each day…LOL

  8. Stjeanluc

    Send me a e mail I have some information on LYME for you.

  9. Good morning! (not really)

    The lack of reaction to a revision in GDP from -1% to -3% is STUNNING!  

    Oil hit $106 but, of course, bouncing there.  Should be pretty bouncy into inventories at 10:30, as usual.   Gasoline took a dive down to $3.09 from $3.13 off those poor API numbers but oil is oblivious for the moment. 

    With the Dollar at 80.23 (masking the real downturn for the moment), oil is $106.16, Gold $1,317, silver $20.93, copper $3.13 and nat gas $4.55.

    At the moment, I like /TF long at 1,160 with tight stops IFF the S&P gets back over 1,140 because, more often than not, we rally into the open no matter how awful the news is.  VERY TIGHT STOPS!   /ES hit 1,937.50 before bouncing, now we'll see if they can get back over 1,940 and very bad if they don't – so watch that if you are playing /TF.  Dow (/YM) bounced off 16,700 – another line to watch and /NKD fell all the way to 15,240 as the Dollar fell to 80.14 but that should be it for both of them on the downside.  

    /ES/Craigs – You shouldn't get hung up on "targets" trading Futures.  The idea is to find a good line to play bullish or bearish off of and be thrilled when you make $100.  If you keep your losses at $50-$100 and take $100 profits off the table, it only takes an occasional big move of $250, $500 or $1,000 to give you a huge net win in a series.  For the most part, focus on hitting singles and the doubles, triples and home runs will come by accident.  

    As to oil, NO, you do not short at $106.10, you short on a move BELOW $106 with VERY TIGHT STOPS above the line or you short at $106.25 or $106.50 with tight stops but NEVER at .10 or .15 since we're playing .25 ranges – so how can you guess in the middle?  

    Lines/Advill – When the lines get wide, it means we could have a significant move ahead.  Guessing which way is the trick…

  10. You know, I kind of agree with them:

    SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea on Wednesday warned against the release of a Hollywood comedy film about a plot to assassinate its leader, Kim Jong-un, calling the movie an “act of war.”

    “If the United States administration tacitly approves or supports the release of this film, we will take a decisive and merciless countermeasure,” a spokesman for its Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement carried by the state-run Korean Central News Agency.

    The spokesman did not elaborate on what North Korea’s retaliation might be. But he accused Washington of “provocative insanity” in mobilizing a “gangster filmmaker” to defile the country’s supreme leader, and reported “a gust of hatred and rage” among its citizens and soldiers.

    Could you imagine if an Iranian filmmaker made a movie about killing Obama?  This isn't about an unnamed President, this is about killing Kim Jong-Un.  

  11. LOL, personal consumption was up while everything else was down – only in America!  

  12. phil, morning

    i was thinking about adding some nly ……would appreciate your thoughts and since its a divd im thinking a buy /write….tks

  13. Obamacare helping or hurting??

  14. LOL….now we know where the organic seeds were growing…!!

  15. GDP down 2.9%.    The kids look like they beginning to dry.  Que the lady with the garden hose.

  16. Embedded image permalink

    Just a few months after announcing plans to raise its minimum wage to $9 an hour this year (and $10 an hour by 2015), Gap Inc. is already cheering the success of the initiative, citing a surge in job applicants.

    A spokesperson for Gap Inc. confirmed to The Huffington Post Tuesday that all of the company's brands have seen an uptick in job applications since last year at this time. For Gap and Old Navy, that percentage increase is in the double-digits, the spokesperson said.

    The news that people are clamoring for a job that pays $9 an hour — while good news for Gap — is an indication of just how low American wages are today, David Cooper, an economic analyst at the Economic Policy Institute, told HuffPost. A job that pays $9 only amounts to $18,720 a year for someone working 40 hours a week, 52 weeks a year — a salary that puts a family of three below the federal poverty threshold, he noted.

    The questions ISIS militants ask to determine whether a person is a Sunni or a Shiite. -

    Healthcare/Pharm – Wow, that's a big revision!  Kind of makes you question their methodology.  No wonder we're bouncing as that, by itself, accounts for most of the drop and spending less on health care leaves people with more disposable income (though that spending hasn't shown up yet, the other chart did have a hint).  

    /TF already past 1,165 (so that's the stop now), /ES at 1,941.50, /YM 16,719, /NQ 3,792.  I think the gas has gone out of the rally now – they're going to have a hard time painting the close on Monday without some major M&A deal being announced or maybe someone will call ISIS off.  

    NLY/Mill – Still a good price at $11.72 but I'd still stay cautious and sell the 2016 $10 calls for $1.75 and the $10 puts for $1.10 for net $8.87/9.44 and, if you get called away and miss the .30 dividend – so what?  At least that would mean the short puts are on track and you can buy more stock and sell more calls but, if NLY is down – then you are safe and can DD on the stock into the dividend (6/27) and HOPE you get called away on the other half.

    $106 broke hard on oil – game on again for the shorts.  

    /TF 1,168 – this is how the Fed makes the rich richer!  

  17. Phil / oil

    My idea do how to handle this  is;

    Buy / CL aug. MKT.  stop 0.05

    Sell / CL sep. MKT.  stop 0.05

    Let run the winner.

  18. App / Qc – Happy to help… 

  19. In any case open the stop a bit more……it's just an idea.

  20. Healthcare/Pharm – I wonder how much the legalization of pot is going to hurt the healthcare industry?  Think of how many people will be able to toss their pain and stress/anxiety medications in favor of an after-dinner joint…  Probably as good as viagra for some and fights nausea too.   They already prescribe it for MS, Lupus, Crohns, Parkinson's, Epilepsy, Cancer, Muscle Spasms, Arthritis and probably other stuff too – if it becomes more socially acceptable, a lot of people will learn to self-medicate.

    /TF finally stops out at 1,170.   /ES hit 1,145. 

    Aereo loses in Supreme Court – CBS, TWX, CMCSA, DIS all popping!  Should be good for NFLX too, I would think.

    How can they still fall – when do they get to 0???  MBA Mortgage Applications decrease in latest survey
    • MBA Mortgage Applications:
    • Composite Index: -1% vs. -9.2% last week.
    • Purchase Index: -1% vs. -5% last week.
    • Refinance Index: -1% vs. -13% last week.
    • Fixed 30-year mortgage rates 4.33% vs. 4.36% last week.
    • The disappointing April durable goods print combines with yet another big revision downward in Q1 GDP to send the 10-year Treasuy yield lower by four basis points to 2.54%. The short end parties as well, with December 2016 Eurodollar futures up 7 basis points to 97.96 (higher Eurodollar futures mean lower rates), still pricing in about 200 bps of rate hikes between now and then.
    • In addition to the headline miss in durable goods (-1% vs. +0.4% expected), core durable goods fell 0.1% vs. an expected 0.4% gain.
    • Before doing too much buying or selling on these numbers, do note they're both old news. The durable goods number is from May and GDP is from Q1, and we're about to enter Q3.
    • TLT +0.5%, TBT -1%
    • Expectations of U.S. and euro zone break-even rates seem to be heading in opposite directions, as investors wager on opposing consumer price outlooks. The break-even rates, as measured by the difference between yields on 10-year nominal Treasury notes and TIPs, are at about 2.3% in the U.S. This greatly differs in the euro zone, where Germany reports a rate of 1.3%.
    • TIPs are expected to gain in popularity over the next year, as break-evens expect to rise in par with U.S. inflation. However, the euro zone is currently dealing with a falling inflation rate. Despite the European Central Bank instituting a 2% inflation mandate, annual inflation in the euro zone was only 0.5% in May.

    Stock Buybacks Charge up the Bull (Dr. Ed’s Blog)

    Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble (Market Anthropology)

    Monitor data, not pundits (TRB)

    Asia’s Sputtering Growth Engine (Real Time Economics)

    • An extension is now being discussed between Argentina and holdout investors, allowing the country to pay other bondholders first if the litigation between the two makes good progress before July 30.
    • Without a suspension on the order or court stay, Argentina will have to pay the $1.3B it owes to holdout creditors, before making a $900M bond payment next Monday. Should the country not make the payment, a 30-day grace period will take place before an actual default can be declared.
    • ETFs: ARGT
    • Banks could lose up to $4.5B in annual revenue as new regulations alter how swaps are traded, according to a report from McKinsey & Co. That amount is equal to 35% of the $13B in revenue booked by banks from trading in rate derivatives, and it comes at a time when FICC business is already on the decline.
    • At issue are new rules requiring swaps trade on electronic systems rather than over the phone ("Thanks, big boy"), and the greater transparency should bite into profits. To counter this, says McKinsey's Roger Rudisuli, banks will have to cut costs and realign teams to focus attention on fewer customers.
    • The usual suspects make up the 5 largest U.S. swaps dealers: JPMCBACGS, and MS.
    • It's not that the asset the Brazilian government is bestowing upon Petrobras (PBR +0.1%) is junk: Morgan Stanley analyst Bruno Montanari likes the geology, but thinks that "more barrels was the last thing Petrobras needed right now.”
    • The deal means more capex for a company that is already highly leveraged, so Montanari – who used to be a Petrobras bull – downgrades shares to Hold from Buy and cuts his price target to $16 from $17 previously.
    • Bloomberg reports PBR is now considering asset sales to help buffer the total ~15B reais ($6.7B) bill to the government, with some analysts worrying about the possibility of fire-sale prices.
    • Monsanto (MON) +5.5% premarket and perhaps set to open at a new all-time high after beating FQ3 earnings estimates, raising its full-year outlook on a strong outlook for its seeds and traits business, and announcing a $10B share buyback program.
    • Raises its full-year EPS and free cash flow guidance to the the upper end of previous ranges; sees EPS of $5.10-$5.20 vs. earlier forecast of $5.00-$5.20 and $5.25 analyst consensus estimate, and free cash flow at the upper end of $700M-$800M range.
    • In its new two-year $10B share purchase program, MON says it is targeting $6B in stock buybacks starting in the near term and spanning up to 12 months.
    • Gross margin rose to 54.8% from 53.2%.
    • General Mills (GIS) -3.1% premarket after FQ4 results missed expectations, with revenues falling 2.9% to $4.28B from $4.41B in the year-ago quarter.
    • U.S. branded goods retail sales fell 1.4% to $2.44B, sales in the international segment dropped 6.8% to $1.34B, and revenue from convenience stores and food service added 1.1% to $507.5M.
    • GIS says it has started a review of its North American manufacturing and distribution network to identify possible cuts in capacity and elsewhere, as part of new cost-cutting plans to generate $40M in pretax savings during the new fiscal year.
    • Expects net sales for FY 2015 to grow in the mid-single digits, with adjusted EPS growing at a high single-digit rate; analyst consensus had projected 4% net sales growth and 10% EPS growth.
    LOL, I was talking about that last week – they hardly mark anything clearly:  Whole Foods to pay $800k after investigation
    • Whole Foods Market (WFM) will pay $800k after a year-long probe revealed one of its Californian stores charged more than the posted price on various items.
    • Civil penalties of $630k will be paid to the city attorneys of Los Angeles, San Diego and Santa Monica, $100k will be given into a consumer trust fund, and $68k will be paid toward costs.
    • The company will also implement a five-year monitoring period that insures correct pricing, increases supervision of its pricing practices and includes random audits.
    • Allowing that harsh winter weather impacted sales this year, Home Depot's (HD) EVP for  U.S. Stores Marvin Ellison tells Oppenheimer Consumer Conference-goers better-than-hoped results in the company's southern and western divisions helped to offset.
    • Webcast and presentation slides
    • The company expects (pg. 4) 7 new store openings this year (5 in Mexico, 1 Puerto Rico, 1 Canada), comparable sales growth of about 4.6%, operating margin expansion of roughly 70 bps to 12%, diluted EPS growth of 17.6% (helped by buybacks), and ROIC of 24%.
    This could be a good sign, downgrade barely affects them at this point:  Coach lower after BAML downgrade
    • "We see downside risk to earnings as the company's turnaround strategies take time to gain traction," says analyst Lorraine Hutchinson, cutting Coach (COH) to Underperform (from Undefined) and lowering the price target to $31 from $38.
    • Hutchinson sees the company's operating margin target of 30% as "unrealistic," and her 2016 EPS estimate of $1.84 is 23% lower than the Street at $2.39.
    • "We question whether Coach will be able to perfectly execute a turnaround given that it is now a much bigger company … Coach needs to rely on increased fashion instead of pricing to turn the business, which is riskier, in our view."
    • Shares -1% premarket
    • GoPro's (GPRO) IPO is on its way, with $427M of company stock estimated to be sold later this afternoon. The company shares will begin trading Thursday on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange. Share price is estimated at $21 to $24, which would value the company at as much as $3.6B.
    • The company's cameras were the number one selling camcorders nationwide by sales and units in 2013. Net profit rocketed 88% last year to $61M, and revenue soared 87% to $986M.
    • Amazon's (AMZN) drone delivery program is facing another hurdle, after the Federal Aviation Administration released a report stating that delivering packages to people for a fee will remain illegal. In December, CEO Jeff Bezos announced his vision to launch an Amazon drone delivery service that would carry packages of up to five pounds.
    • The FAA has a deadline of September 15, 2015 to incorporate commercial drones into airspace operations.
    • Execs at Samsung (SSNLF) are not expecting great results this quarter, after announcing that company performance has been declining. Shares have fallen 8.5% so far this month, after a string of downgrades in earnings forecasts.
    • “It doesn’t look too good,” says CFO Lee Sang-hoon, in reference to second quarter results.
    • The company is scheduled to report its second-quarter earnings estimates in early July.
    • Google (GOOG) will unveil a new TV set-top box at its developer conference today, as it looks to not fall far behind Amazon's new Fire TV and Apple TV.
    • The device will use new Android TV software designed to play movies, games and other content, although the box will carry another company's brand. Users will also be able to control the TV through their Android devices.
    • Google has made previous attempts in recent years to launch a set-top box, such as the 2012 Nexus Q, and the 2010 Google TV launched through Logitech, Sony, Vizio and Asus.

    Equity crowdfunding is a disaster waiting to happen (Slate)

  21. Serious question; Is it really that prosperous in the wealth hubs? Do you dare a drive elsewhere? I have not seen a new car in forever and no housing starts, 2 from last year are being finished. The stores, motel, and gas stations are empty. Yesterday Phil mentioned driving down the hill and his kids noticed poverty. Even the wine store sold.


    Healthcare crushed GDP and they don't know why. I will tell you the real story. Obama Care is for most people not that inclusive, it has for most large deductibles and co-pays. So most that bought it aren't using it. Did you expect different? Insurance is still all about profits.

    The real issue is the ones that have to seek medical care are no longer charged mega rates. The CCA controls what is charged and if you have a friendly talk with you doctor you will hear that it is killing their revenue/income. Hospitals are in the same boat.

  23. BTW I have a serious simple solution or 2.

    1 Make health insurance non-profit like it was many years ago.

    2 Adopt a universal public health.

    Nobody remembers but for a least 2 decades we were warned that health care increases way beyond inflation would kill the economy. It is happening!

  24. Administration OKs export of lightly processed oil and could have major impact on WTI vs Brent

    VLO down 8%

  25. Healthcare/Pot – Phil, I don't think it will have a material impact on Pharma.  Pain meds are mainly generic anyway, so I see it as an add on to alleviate the opioid burden.  GWPH, though, is a different story! :)

  26. Exporting as specified will mean nothing. The rule allows for a lowering of flaring especially in the Balkans of North Dakota. Opening up crude has not happened and the processing is to allow safe transportation whatever that means being controlled by those 2 small oil companies. 

  27. Affordable care act does not cover chiropractic care/ or alternative therapy's-says "it is unproven." That is a mistake. The other thing you have to keep in mind is that poor people still cannot afford the co-pays or the original yearly deductible charge b 4 the co-pay kicks in. NOt to mention the the monthly costs to even have the insurance in the first place. Even if it is on a "sliding scale" it is too much when you have to find a way to feed yourself & put mega bucks in your gas tank.

  28. Crude + 1.7M

    Gas + .7

    Distillates +1.2

    Total ++3.6

  29. Oil/Advil – They will both stop out in short order is most likely.  Oil is way too volatile to play games like that.  Why not just do what I said earlier and take the short as it crosses below a .00, .25, .50 or .75 line?  That's very easy to do and you can limit your stop to a .05 loss and, sometimes, you get lucky:

    Look at all those opportunities to play in just a few days – why not learn how to play properly instead of playing as if it's a roulette wheel? 

    Prosperity/Shadow – I go to the Cheesecake factory at malls in either direction, a 20-mile radius, and you can't get a seat for dinner.  Costs well over $100 to eat there with kids and no drinks.  IMAX is packed at $18 a ticket, people line up to pay $8 for popcorn that costs .25 to make – my area is generally doing well, we just happen to live near Paterson, which has been a problem city since the 60s.  I was just saying that it's amazing how top 10% kids can literally grow up next to a place like that and have no idea it exists.  They don't discuss it in school, the parents never take them (I do, of course) and they go through their lives blissfully unaware that people are suffering in this country.   

    The point was that YOU need to understand you are shouting from the bottom of a well, where America throws the bottom 40% and not only aren't we listening, but we put up noise walls to make sure we can't hear you down there.  Remember the 70s when we had All In the Family and Chico and the Man and Sanford and Son on TV?  There used to be shows about poor people so at least people in the top 10% had some awareness.  

    Now there are 1,000 TV shows and almost none of them show anyone who isn't in the top 10% (unless you count the cops – who all seem to have much better apartments than you'd think they could afford).  The bottom half of this country has been swept under a rug and that rug has been rolled up and weighed down and tossed into a very deep lake.  Shouting won't help and things will likely get worse, that's why I think revolution is the most likely outcome.  

    Exports/Tx – There is no new ruling – it's BS.  Never trust anything you read at Motley Fool, its an even worse pump and dump factory than Seeking Alpha! 

    There has been no change in policy on crude oil exports,” Jim Hock, a spokesman for the Department of Commerce, said for Bloomberg.

    GWPH/Pharm – I just have a tough time getting my head around the more than 10x move since last year, which now values them at $1.5Bn off $44M in sales and no actual profits.  That's 34x sales and they are only projecting $50M this year and $60M next year, still 25x sales and figure 20% profits makes for 125x forward earnings – I just can't do it…

    Now MJNA for 0.20 is a fun play, on the other hand!  

    Oil inventories were a 3.5Mb build overall – nonetheless they are spiking oil higher so we will wait patiently for our next shorting opportunity:

    • Crude +1.74M barrels vs. -1.6M expected, -0.6M last week.
    • Gasoline +0.7M barrels vs. +1.5M expected, +0.8M last week.
    • Distillates +1.2M barrels vs. +0.7M expected, +0.4M last week.
    • Futures -0.33% to $105.68.

  30. Horton !!!

  31. Though the fed is pumping this market higher every day, I still get the feeling after yesterday and today's news that we might see a reversal.  And I'm probably wrong considering this is the end of the month which is also another pump job but can't shake the feeling. 

  32. Phil

    My income is below poverty but if I do everything myself and never buy more than necessities I survive. I see people every day way worse.

    My current problem is even though you thought I never would for attitude or vets and children first. I have my foot in 2 doors. The sad part of struggle is I have had to tell both JH and TJ hospitals I can't come until I get the money. I can't take any more debt because there is nothing else to cut back on.

  33. Phil // DIA
    In light of the new GDP information, would you sell the DIA calls we were using for upside protection, or would you hold them through earnings ?

  34. rustle

    I agree with your feeling, This has to reverse but when? I actually feel after July 4. I have a tiny amount in my trading account, cash, and I am waiting for when. All I need is a 2,000 banger and that is not as far fetched as some think. Put options on a steep drop can do it. in the mean time I must wait for the sure thing as in Phil's video, and then slam the turn back up. The market should allow it because I will spend it all on the flailing medical industry. At least one will put the money back to work in the economy.

  35. Pharm // ARIA
    Still collecting Aug $7 calls ?

  36. Shawdowfax: If your income is way below the poverty level, is there a reason that you are trading the markets?

  37. IHS

    I am not trading, don't have a portfolio. I wish I could work. See comment to Rustle. That is all I have done for a couple years. My last try was a loss. I am trying to just keep my etrade account, I got a level 4 when I had something, sold the last lot. Now I wouldn't qualify. I may loose pro as I am not doing the minimum trades per quarter. When you can't work your income is poverty, I told Phil when I joined this site was my last attempt at independence. I have many talents and lots of education but in America when you get hurt you are disposed.

  38. wombat / DIA

    Personally, I just don't see any better place for my small amount of capital than the markets.  There is still NO other option for your money.  Savings accounts, CDs, and holding cash on hand are all worse than paying for overvalued stocks.  Housing is even more overvalued.  The Fed is printing and every other week I, personally, contribute another couple hundred dollars to the stock market through my 401k as do millions of other Americans (and foreigners).  Millions of people are contributing to IRAs every year.

    It might be speculative, but I went with the Jan 180 DIA calls because frankly, they are still pretty likely to turn out victorious.

  39. HCA/Pirate – Until we have Universal Health Care, all these stop-gap methods will be a joke. 

    Foot in 2 doors/Shadow – Well that's good.  I see the Fund is up to $4,000, that's a good start.  Hopefully people will find it in their hearts to donate some more.  At the moment, it basically proves the liberal point that you can't count on the kindness of strangers to supplement private health care…

    DIA/Wombat – From Monday?  If you are too bearish, those are good balance.  Look at today, the market is up despite NEGATIVE 3% GDP.  We are, in fact, falling as fast as we predicted we would climb yet still the market is green.  It's completely detached from reality.  That's why my CALL is for CASH!!!   If you are in cash, and worried you will miss something, then sure, you can do the DIA play and offset with short puts you REALLY want to own the stock of if the market does pull back 20%.  If you REALLY want to own 1,000 shares of WMT at $60 a share (now $75.66), then you are being given a free $1,450 for selling 10 2016 $60 puts.  

    That $1,400 can be used to buy 14 DIA Jan $180 calls at $1 and, if the Dow falls 10%, you probably end up with nothing as WMT should hold $60 and the calls will go worthless.  If the Dow is flat, same outcome.  If the Dow goes up 10% however, DIA hits $185 and the calls are $5 and you get $7,500 back for doing nothing.  If the Dow goes up 20%, DIA hits $200+ and the calls are $20 for $30,000.

    So, in a $500,000 Portfolio, if I am in cash.  I can find 2 stocks I want to buy if the Dow falls 20% (WMT, NKE and PFE were my suggestions on Monday) and sell about $3,000 worth of puts, promising to buy about $120,000 worth of stock ($60K margin would be 10% of my portfolio and just 5% of my buying power) and buy 30 calls so, in a down market, I am adding two blue-chip stocks in exchange for a small part of my cash. In a flat market – I spend nothing and I don't regret my cash.   In an up market, a 10% up move gives me $15,000 – which is 3% of the move I missed and a 20% up move gives me $60,000, a 12.5% return on $500,000 in cash – so I hardly miss a thing.  

    That's the purpose of hedging – they are not meant to be bets, they are meant to offset your overall position so that, IF you are wrong, you still get some benefit from the move against you.  

  40. Phil Fund

    Unfortunately I sent $2,900 to Citi bank June 2 so it is less than $1,000 in there, not enough for the first visit and travel. The banks send notices to transfer money but that is up to 5% charge and I have until April. I have to knock that out before they start interest, more credit isn't available. This is what banks do and it has been suggested I take a loan on my house but I could never make the payments. Everyone has been generous beyond what I expected, what hasn't happened is anyone promoting it outside PSW. I am isolated and have no contacts, I hope others do, like you said and I remember way too much $20 X 2,500 is goal, last I checked it was 45 

  41. Anyone knows where we stand with the shadow fund?? Thanks

  42. shadow – i've learned the hard way that trading when you NEED to win, when you NEED to be right is nothing more than a recipe for loss and pain.  wombat echoed something similar yesterday – the harder we try the harder we fail. 

    one of the most underappreciated aspects of phil is his trading mind set.  he has the perfect attitude to be successful at this because its as like he doesnt care — its as if he's indifferent to trading.  he doesnt need it to validate himself.  he lives in the moment and hes cool calm and collected. 

    ive learned that the most important aspect of successful trading is the proper frame of mind.  still working on that right here :)

  43. Well Shadow, I think you guys need to work on the landing page.  It means nothing to people outside of PSW, there's no picture, no link - nothing.  Look at the ads that do successfully raise money and at least make an attempt to make yours a little more like those.  I thought what you had there was just a work in progress but it's been two weeks and I haven't seen anything done to it.  Even with charity, you still need to put in an effort.   

    Shadow Fund/Yodi – Follow the link.  

  44. Meanwhile, oil coming back down to $106 line from $106.25, could be a good short if they fail.  

    RUT rejected at 1,170 (/TF) still a good play but tight stops over.  Watch the Nas 3,800 (/NQ) to confirm.  

    Dollar still very weak at 80.22 but VIX calming down at 11.77, down from 12.33 yesterday's close. 

  45. Phil

    I just tried to make a change this AM. Jen has the account, I don't have any digital images of myself and no clue about links. Please give a hint on links adding. BTW she has moved all over the country trying to get a job. Last time she e mailed was in Texas but didn't get the good job, had to take a job and she has a big student loan problem, a low paying job, and other issues. I emailed again this AM. The good people are always broke.

  46. QQQ hedges – my current Jun4 90s are expiring worthless this week (most likely). ok as bot for .28 (and only a couple).  just reupped this insurance with 2 new July 91s bought for .43. a plunge to 85 on QQQ is down around 4000 on COMP. that would be a $1100+ profit for the $86 premium… a 1200% payout in that drastic case of a 9% drop. Is that expensive?  well it's $3.75/day to expiration. which I will likely roll out again for .25 or so if nothing that exciting happens. Does it cover all my longs? heck no. but with COMP staying anywhere above 4200 not much damage is being done. 

  47. How accurate are the blood pressure machines in grocery stores and drugstores?

    Answers from Sheldon G. Sheps, M.D.

    Not accurate enough to make health decisions regarding your blood pressure.

  48. Phil

    Tried again, I am lost on how to do anything. I see others have testimonials but no idea how to add them, didn't see any links other than FB TW etc. I could put up email and donations go through pay pal to my same bank but the charge is 3% either way, wait the sender can pay the 3%, not a merchant transaction. I can confirm that the funds takes only 3% and transfers the money quickly. BTW may name is in the donations by some that know it.

  49. shadowfax 

    How about face book, with a link to the web page

  50. ARIA/wombat – holding…..waiting….wanting…but not doing anything at the moment.

  51. qcmike

    That generates doctor visits. Drug store pressure machines are close enough to send you to another. I have had readins so off I asked for another check and they were wrong the first time. I have an old auto machine, old manual set, and girlfriend has a new auto machine. The pressure is full coverage on all of them and the only issue is my old auto machine is not good a deflating and gets error3. I once went to the mayo clinic and they believe you should once a year test everything under the sun, that is an unsustainable idea and their opinion on blood pressure is only going to make things worse. Any check is better than none that can't afford a visit.

    Most Hospitals will check BP free if you ask!

  52. Very important for free BP test, go to the emergency room, the front desk will set you up for a $500 check!!!!!!!!!!

  53. Phil Thanks for the link it obviously does not show the number of spenders but it looks like 80 people have spend two of your special hamburgers to the fund. Having some 500 odd members I would say we can at least do 25,000.00 even that the target is set for 50,000.00. So guys spend one day out eating and eat at home.!!!

    I think it will be always difficult to collect donations outside our group. 

  54. Reading through all these problems you guys have with health care I must say I live here in Germany in paradise. I even got my crutches for free.

  55. Thanks Yodi!

    I can think of many things but in America private donations don't work and nobody is going to give up one luxury for the good of another. I still try to find work but the GOP has everyone believing I am living the good life on a gigantic disability check with free medical care.

  56. yodi Over the years I couldn't walk I bought about 6 pairs all used. They were only limited help as only one arm had strength. In the USA no one cares, tough luck is the saying.

  57. Good point Toe.   I think that "attitude" comes from experience.  If you take a surgeon, for example, you wouldn't say he doesn't care if the patient lives or dies but, after 10 or 20 years, they do gain some perspective on it.  Same for lawyers winning or losing cases, etc. – if you are going to be in it for the long haul, you have to take your setbacks in stride and try to make better decisions next time.  

    Changes/Shadow – Well, perhaps someone here can help but you don't even have a picture of yourself?  How about one of your X-Rays and you can make little notes with arrows pointing to all the broken bits that need to be fixed?  Don't rely on other people, YOU need to work on YOUR site.  Write down your story, what happened to you, what you've tried – something that people who've never hear of you can read and understand your situation, right now it says:

    The funds raised will go to pay medical bills for a member of Phil's Stock World that has undergone multiple medical procedures in order to reduce pain and regain functionality. – See more at:

    Meanwhile, this guy's Details say:


    Stu is a Veteran of H.M. Forces (Army) He gave 20 years service to Queen and County and served 10 of those years with the SAS.  His parent unit being The 2nd Battalion The Royal Anglian Regiment (The Poachers).  On leaving the Forces, Stu worked for companies specialising in protection in many areas with troubles.  He spent his time off work on the Island of Koh Samui in Thailand with his girlfriend Jiraa and their 3 year old daughter Kyraa.  He also has a son, Danny, a daughter, Kimberley and grandson Nathan (who he is yet to meet) living in the UK.


    As many of you are aware,  Stu was in a serious motorbike accident on Friday, 4th October in Koh Samui, Thailand.  Stu suffered severe head and brain trauma and remains in a coma.  

    Reason We're Asking for Support:

    Our family is humbled by the tremendous love and support expressed towards Stu and we find strength in all your continued love, thoughts and prayers.  We still do not know the extent of the medical expenses involved, they are escalating daily.  We have already paid fees in excess of £30,000 and are looking to Medevac Stu to the UK as quickly as we can.  Any contribution made to this site, or to our family directly, is greatly appreciated.  

    Can you see the difference – this is basic marketing.  You are essentially competing for funds with other people on the site and, if you want people to Tweet or Facebook to total strangers asking for unsolicited donations – you'd BETTER have a compelling story to tell.  READ other BIOS – MAKE your own.  Don't say Jen this or you don't know how etc – YOU are the one asking for the money – take charge of your situation.  The problem isn't whether or not you take PayPal, it's that you give people no reason to care about your situation.  

    Good attitude on QQQ Scott. 

    BP machines/QC – Were there really people who thought they were accurate?  

    Paradise/Yodi – It's almost barbaric what people have to do in this country to get health care.  Even when you have insurance, you still end up paying out of pocket expenses and, SURPRISE!, if anything major happens, your coverage can run out.   

  58. Phil,   Could you give an example of the trade you mentioned (11:52 AM) for $500,000 portfolio, using NKE

  59. shadowfax 


    The problem is the calibration of the devices (gauges), same issue with labs, manufacturing and inspection.

    Most Hospital has a program schedule to calibrate the devices.

    This how the Mayo does BP

    Put the arm pad on

     Nurse Leave the room so you are alone

    The machine automatically takes 5 reading works 3 in the center of the data

  60. On the hour

    01:00 PM ET

    • Dow +0.13%.
    • 10-yr +0.24%.
    • Euro +0.24% vs. dollar.
    • Crude +0.35% to $106.41.
    • Gold +0.05% to $1,321.90.

  61. Rowan enters into drillship contract with Freeport McMoRan

    12:49 PM ET · RDC

    • In its latest fleet status update, Rowan (RDC -1.7%) says it has entered into a two-year contract with Freeport McMoRan for the Rowan Relentless that will add ~$425M to RDC’s current contract backlog, meaning that all four of RDC’s ultra-deepwater drillships are now under long-term contracts.
    • The Relentless is expected to be delivered next March and operate in the Gulf of Mexico starting in Q3 2015.
    • RDC began operations on its Rowan Renaissance in April, experiencing 17 days off rate time during Q2.

  62. Korea fails to keep up with emerging markets index

    12:48 PM ET · EWY

    • The iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY -0.4%) is off 0.5% YTD vs. the EEM 4% gain – this despite a 3.3% rise in the won which should boost the dollar-denominated ETF.
    • Looking for a story behind the price action, Credit Suisse comes up with a few ideas, the first one being the slowdown in Korea’s largest export market China.
    • Other reasons include downward Q1 earnings revisions of 19%, a record low except for during the financial crisis, and the dampening consumer effect of the sinking of the MV Sewol.
    • Finally, there’s sluggish action in Samsung (22.6% of EWY’s holdings) after an earnings miss and concern over the company’s restructuring plan.

  63. Google: Android MAUs top 1B, tablet share at 62%

    12:42 PM ET · GOOG

    • Android has become the fourth Google (GOOG +1.3%) platform (joining search, Maps, and YouTube) to top 1B monthly active users, the Web giant discloses as its I/O conference kicks off (live blog). Android topped 1B device activations last September.
    • Android tablet app installs are up 236% Y/Y in 2014, and Google asserts its version of Android now has a 62% tablet unit share (revenue share is likely lower). App Annie recently estimated Google Play app revenue (both for smartphones and tablets) rose 140% Y/Y in Q1, with downloads rising 50%.
    • Material Design, a new common design language for Android, Chrome OS, and Google’s Web apps, has been shown off. Icons have been refreshed, and the design style is more colorful than traditional Android. “Our material is grounded in tactile reality, inspired by our study of paper and ink, yet open to imagination and magic,” Google says, apparently with a straight face.
    • Also unveiled: Android One, an initiative providing reference platforms for cheap emerging markets hardware. Indian OEMs Micromax, Spice, and Karbonn are among the first supporters. A sub-$100 Micromax phone featuring a 4.5″ display is shown as a proof-of-concept.

  64. Schlumberger +4.7% after long-term profit guidance beats expectations

    12:26 PM ET · SLB

    • Schlumberger (SLB +4.7%) surges after providing long-term profit guidance at an investor presentation today, predicting EPS growth at a compound annual growth rate of 17%-20%; in an earlier note, RBC analyst Kurt Hallead wrote that the Street was expecting the company’s EPS to grow at an annualized rate of 15%.
    • SLB says it can achieve $9-$10 EPS through revenue growth, margin expansion and share repurchases; Hallead had predicted SLB’s EPS would reach $8 in 2016.
    • Expects spending on exploration would be subdued in 2015, but expects a renewed focus on exploration in 2016-17.
    • Other oil services companies also are higher: HAL +2.1%, BHI +1.9%, WFT +1.1%, NOV +1%.

  65. Local broadcasters soar following Aereo verdict

    12:11 PM ET · SBGI

    • Sinclair Broadcast (SBGI +14.1%), Media General (MEG +10.4%), E.W. Scripps (SSP +7.9%), Gray Television (GTN +7.5%), Meredith (MDP +4.3%), Gannett (GCI +3.8%), and Nextar (NXST +15.6%) are taking off after the Supreme Court ruled (by a 6-3 vote) Aereo’s TV streaming service is illegal.
    • National broadcast network owners are generally showing more moderate gains.

  66. Tankers to benefit from more energy exports, Jefferies says

    11:59 AM ET · FRO

    • While refiner stocks are tumbling on fear that margins will be hurt as the U.S. begins to allow U.S. condensate exports, the sensational headline speculating on the end of the oil export ban “is a long way from giving two companies export permissions to full U.S. crude exports.”
    • However, Jefferies analysts say the news is a near-term positive for tanker companies that ship oil, such as Frontline (FRO -4.6%) and Nordic American Tanker (NAT +1.3%).
    • Even while condensate export volumes are likely to be limited, any increase in export volumes should have a net positive impact on the crude oil tanker market, the firm says, with any heavy condensate volumes exported out of the U.S. to be carried out on either Aframax crude oil tankers and/or Panamax crude oil tankers.

  67. Audience buys sensor software firm for $41M

    11:48 AM ET · ADNC

    • Audience (ADNC -3%) is buying Sensor Platforms, a developer of software and algorithms that analyze the motion/context data provided by a phone’s sensors, for $41M in cash.
    • Sensor’s products can be integrated with 3rd-party motion sensors (gyroscopes, acceleromoters, etc.) and sensor hubs, both to optimize apps/services for a particular context and to improve power efficiency. Apple has included a sensor hub (the M7) in its latest-gen iPhones and iPads, and various chipmakers are offering solutions for Android OEMs.
    • Audience says the purchase positions it to “deliver compelling solutions based on the fusion of voice and motion.” It arrives after Cirrus Logic made a couple of acquisitions that could help it better compete against Audience’s voice processors.

  68. Food products names in the red following General Mills results

    11:46 AM ET · K

  69. Morgan Stanley starts coverage on supermarket names

    10:55 AM ET · WFM

    • Looking over the battered natural/organic growth group, Morgan Stanley buys the dip in Whole Foods (WFM +0.5%) and Sprouts (SFM +3%), initiating both at Overweight, but The Fresh Market (TFM -1.7%) is started at Underweight.
    • Plain-jane and red-hot The Kroger (KR +0.2%), meanwhile, also rates an Overweight rating.

  70. Phil – oil touched 106.50 just a few minutes ago and seems to be hitting resistance. 106.41 now. Short or hold off?

  71. FCX – what in the heck are they going to do with a deep water drillship?

  72. Cliffs Natural preparing to idle West Virginia coal mine

    10:36 AM ET · CLF

    • Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF -0.8%) plans to idle its Pinnacle met coal mine in West Virginia unless market conditions improve, according to an SEC filing.
    • CLF says it has notified workers that it could idle the mine for more than six months starting around Aug. 25, as required under federal law.
    • Pinnacle produced 2.8M metric tons of coal in 2013.

  73. Supreme Court rules against Aereo

    10:21 AM ET · CBS

    • Handing a major win to TV broadcasters, the Supreme Court has ruled 6-3 Aereo’s streaming TV service violates the Copyright Act.
    • Aereo has maintained an unfavorable ruling would be a death knell for the company. Broadcasters, meanwhile, had threatened to stop providing their channels over the air, as they looked to protect the lucrative affiliate fees they receive from pay-TV providers.
    • Broadcaster shares have moved higher following the verdict: CBS +5.4%. DIS +1.4%. FOX +2%. FOXA +1.9%. CMCSA +0.9%. InterActiveCorp (IACI -1.6%), a major Aereo investor, is trading lower.
    • Prior Aereo coverage

  74. GM to offer comprehensive payout

    10:21 AM ET · GM

    • General Motors (GM +0.7%) is setting up a fund to compensate families or victims connected to the faulty ignition switch problem that led to 13 reported deaths and hundreds of injuries.
    • Details regarding the setup of the fund will be released next week, and the company will begin receiving claims on Aug 1.
    • Victims will still be able to sue the automaker if they opt out of accepting payments, although GM has announced it is protected from product-liability claims by its 2009 bankruptcy.

  75. Refiners slide sharply lower after U.S. widens oil export potential

    10:18 AM ET · PXD

    • Refiners take a beating in early trading, as a lift of the ban on U.S. oil exports is expected to narrow the WTI-Brent spread, which could cause refiners’ profits drop if they are forced to pay higher prices to compete with international buyers for U.S. crude.
    • “We don’t think the current system needs to be changed,” Valero Energy tells Bloomberg.
    • Yesterday’s rulings gave Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD +2.6%) and Enterprise Products Partners (EPD +1.4%) permission to ship ultralight oil to foreign buyers – a narrow ruling, but one that is likely to spark similar requests from other companies, and increase lobbying for a full lifting of the 40-year-old ban on exporting crude oil.
    • Refining stocks are broadly lower: VLO -7.4%, PBF -5.8%, MPC -5.7%, WNR -5.5%, DK -5.4%, HFC -4.6%, ALDW -4.6%, TSO -3.8%, NTI -3.5%, PSX -2.9%, ALJ -2.7%, CVI -2.3%.

  76. FCX – ah. oil and nat gas is part of their portfolio now.. hmm..

  77. From Bloomberg, Jun 25, 2014, 12:01:05 PM

    Chet Kanojia, chief executive officer of Aereo Inc., and a loser at the Supreme Court.

    Sometimes the law is an ass — but not, apparently, when it comes to Aereo, the cable-television-to-your-computer service that was designed to save you money by exploiting a loophole in the copyright laws. The U.S. Supreme Court closed the loophole today — and with it shut down Aereo. This was a victory for the cable companies, to be sure. But more important, it should send a message to anyone who wants to start a company based on an innovation that means nothing in the real world.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  78. Goldman: Monsanto’s huge share buyback trumps lack of earnings quality

    11:39 AM ET · MON

    • Monsanto (MON +5%) says in its FQ3 earnings conference call that it is delivering growth commitments despite the toughest macro agriculture environment in several years, and that its upside guidance reflects estimated a $0.15-$0.20 EPS headwind largely driven by currency.
    • Goldman Sachs maintains its Buy rating on the shares even as MON’s FQ3 earnings beat was “not great” and the guidance raise was below expectations; the firm believes it is outweighed by the sheer size of the share repurchase program.
    • MON is shifting its capital redeployment strategy from acquisitions to share repurchases and will be more aggressive going forward, Goldman says; it also views MON’s five-year growth plan calling for mid-teens CAGR to $10-plus of EPS in 2019 as an endorsement of continued growth.

  79. Insurance – I told my Brazilian wife that I paid some medical bills for a visit she made to the doctor while we were in the US in March and she responded by asking "Our insurance doesn't cover medical expenses in the US?" I explained to her how insurance works in the US and I was surprised to find out that 100% of expenses are covered if you have a health insurance plan in Brasil. She said the big difference in plans (and the cost) is which hospitals, clinics, etc…are covered. So, no more US doctor visits for us unless it's an emergency since my ex-pat insurance covers 100% of expenses for services/visits in Brasil.

  80. Phil I have tried and tried, it is protected, contacted Jen for information. Sorry blaming me isn't the answer, I don't have a digital camera and my scans are locked so un transferable. I would have said it differently but please don't trash the girl that tried. I just took time to think of who I could get to take my picture and load it into my computer, I am sure you don't believe, no one, I tried months ago and failed. I have no family around and frankly they don't have a digital camera, money, or even a desire to help. All on this site have heard what my problems were and if not clear :

    My left arm is weak, left hand I constantly drop things, shoulders ache if lied on, when doing that opposite hand goes to sleep, sleep about 45 minutes wake roll over wash rinse repeat. This is C7/T1 that sits to left forward, screws from C7 plate hit T1 and C7 is fused back. My doc did the best he could but they don't have universal joints on the screw drivers they use. Even the fuse block is rotated 45 degrees. Big improvements but would you accept the problems forgetting pain?

  81. Shadow, doesn't your phone or computer have a camera?  

  82. America is in a recession as I predicted on PSW in January. That is excellent for the rich as they get more free money but this is my next prediction for those with money to invest. This will not work eventually all these companies can't make a dime because there are only a few rich people and they are tight assed.

    Markets all green in USA even after the rest of the world went red over the same news. At least people outside America are smarter knowing this is not working and what is the end, now in sight.

  83. wombat: i sent you an email to the address you gave yesterday.

    Burrben/ send an email to biodeiselchris at gmail and I can give you more info on the monetization scheme.

  84. I have only a home phone, computer I built, no camera, girlfriend's cell phone has a camera but her screen is dead, no way to tell what is there and even then cell companies charge to download, she checked need a data plan. So if I get a picture I can't add it, don't have the password etc. Think about what could happen if anyone could do whatever they want. It would become a big rip off. I don't even believe it would make a big difference, a better write up definitely but again locked out and waiting for an email.

  85. NKE/Zten – It's the same thing.  NKE is $75.96 and you can sell the 2016 $60 puts for $2.70.  If you are willing to own $60,000 worth of NKE at $6 a share, you can sell 10 of the put contracts and collect $2,700.  Then you can use that money to buy 30 Jan $180 calls for .95 ($2,850) and so, for $150 in cash, you now have 100% of the the upside on 3,000 shares of DIA over $180.95, which is 7.5% higher than it is now. 107.5% x 16,863 (current Dow) is 1,812 so that's your target for Jan.  Every 10 points over that mark makes you another $3,000. 

    All you have to do is hit that 20,000 line in the next 7 months and you should get about $60,000 back on that trade, which, by the way, is 100% of what you are risking owning NKE for!

    Oil/Allan – Yes, we are using the $106.50 line as a short again but not much conviction into the weekend so we stop out on a break over with very small losses and simply wait for our next entry opportunity.  

    FCX/Scott – They are about 40% oil these days.  Part of that is because copper prices tanked and that division dropped to 48% (gold down too at 9%) so thank goodness they diversified while gold and copper were up and oil was down – great move by management!  

    Brazil/Brill – How's the health care down there?  Lots of poor people in that country.

    99 Problems/Shadow – You need to get the information from Jen or, if she's not coming back and doesn't respond to you, then you need to set up a new site.  Surely someone you come in contact with has a phone with a camera – they've been in phones for the last decade.  If not, go to the 7-11 and ask anyone there to take a picture and Email it to you – that takes 5 seconds.  As to your list of problems – yes, WE know in general what you have but you have not conveyed any of that in your profile and, by the way, just listing a bunch of problems with nothing that makes you a person is not going to work.  You need to write down for that site's Bio who you are, what happened to you, what is wrong, what you've tried and what you want to try and how the money people give you will make a difference.  THEN maybe you will get people interested in donating.

  86. Phil

    Good morning!

    Thanks for all your input.

    What do you think of RIG at this level.

    I managed to get some spreads and sold some 2016 puts a few weeks ago but was thinking of owning the stock because of the dividend.

    Just buy it straight up or go 'complicated with some covered calls? And/or short puts also?

  87. bcd // email
    i replied and made the intro – did you not get the email ?

  88. TM is getting interesting as they are releasing fuel cell cars for $68,600 and there will be incentives from the Government for people to buy them.  

    Japan's ruling party is pushing for ample subsidies and tax breaks for consumers to bring the cost of a fuel-cell car down to about $20,000 by 2025. The government is also aiming to create 100 hydrogen fuel stations by end-March 2016 in urban areas where the vehicles will be launched initially.

    "To stay globally competitive, Japan cannot afford to lag behind in this area," said Yuriko Koike, a former environment minister who heads a group of ruling party lawmakers advocating hydrogen energy.

    Hydrogen vehicles can run five times longer than battery-operated electric cars, and their tanks can be filled in just a few minutes compared with recharging times from 30 minutes up to several hours for electric cars.

    Toyota, which astounded rivals 17 years ago by developing the Prius hybrid car in barely two years and then swallowed initial losses to establish its dominance in the segment, is confident of its prospects in fuel cells.

    "When we first introduced the Prius, there was little way we could make a profit and our vision was longer-term, for the second- and third-generation models," Toyota managing officer Satoshi Ogiso told Reuters in March.

    "Unless you are willing to accept losses initially, it's not possible to increase sales."

    I like that attitude!   This is not good for TSLA but they'll just keep going until someone realizes Emperor Musk has no clothes.  Anyway, since TM has crappy front-month prices, it's no good for a butterfly but you can sell the 2016 $100 puts for $6.10 and use that money to buy the $110/135 bull call spread at $9.55 for net $3.45 on the $25 spread that's $7 in the money to start.  Let's add 5 of those to the Income Portfolio and LTP and, if TM goes lower, we'll spend less than $5 to roll the $110 calls to the $100 calls (now net $5.50).

    RIG/Maya – Where were you under $40?  Now $44.64.  It's on the Buy List from 5/20, when it was $41.47 but you can still sell the 2016 $35 puts for $2.40 (was $3.55) and pick up the $40/50 bull call spread for $4 (was $3.20) for net $1.60, which is only up 557% from our original net .35 credit but that's OK as it's on track for the full 2,957% gain at $40!  The dividend is $3, which is nothing to sneeze at but I worked that out for Ivan a couple of weeks ago:

    Submitted on 2014/06/09 at 12:04 pm

    RIG/Ivan – If you buy the stock for $43 and tie up $4,300 on 100 shares and sell the 2016 $45 calls for $3 and the $40 puts for $5.50 that's net $3,450 less 1.5 (18 months) an irregular $200 dividend so $300 lowers your basis to $3,150 and your best pay-off is $1,850 at $50 in 2016 (58%).  If, however, you buy 2 of the 2016 $40/50 bull call spreads for $3.50 ($700) and sell 2 of the $40 puts for $5.50 ($1,100), you have a net $400 credit and your upside at $50 is +$2,000 for $2,400 total (almost double the buy/write) or 600% on cash or 133% on ($1,100 in margin + $700 in cash).  Also, since you are obligated to own 2x RIG in both cases, if you own the stock your net is $31.50/40.75 while the artificial buy/write nets you in at $40.25 – so you even do better to the downside.  That's why…

  89. Advice is simple. I don't have a friend remotely close with a camera. Locally phones in stores have faded to none, maybe it became uncool or maybe like I said you have no clue about other places and how broke people are. I have thought of setting up a new fund but that is extremely unusual, why Jen did it and used PSW as organizer.

    Had done, decompress neck remove discs, Fuse neck to C7, repair not fuse L1 to S1 3 surgeries, both shoulders, left elbow, both hands, right eye, nose reconstruction, right foot, leg, knee, and honestly I just don't care to list another 15 or 20, get the picture. From multiple accidents.

    I don't have a network of friends, my oldest and best friends have died, unbelievable to me but you only hold a few and 3 heart attacks 4 cancers and gone. Girlfriend is a cancer survivor, I paid that and her 2 spinal surgeries. In economics it is called the misallocation of misfortune. That makes me an ecomoron.

  90. Anyone want to help please do this; as I have, go to the fund site, click details, then contact the organizer, send suggestions that you believe will help. I am over explaining and feeling like it is my fault. I wasn't even the cause of any accident ever but everyone has said it was all my fault including why I am not 100% again. I have never stopped trying! The end.

  91. ~~What if Janet Yellen is wrong?

    I didn't bother to read it, headline says what I think, and she and Ben are wrong. Raise interest to a minimum of 5% and let the world work the damage off. The sooner the easier.

  92. Brazil Health Care/Phil – It varies drastically. There is free public healthcare, if you can get it. The public hospitals/clinics are overwhelmed because of the number of poor that they serve and the lack of doctors (due to pay compared to private hospitals). Because of the severe shortage of doctors and medical specialists Brazil began importing doctors from Cuba early last year. Even mid-level hospitals are crowded. Before my wife was on my plan, she'd have waits typically between 2-3 hours before being called to see the doctor. At the top-level hospitals waits are usually minimal (unless you go on a weekend) and the service has been excellent.

    My wife use to go to one specialist that was not part of our network. He said he used to attend various plans but the workload was substantial and what can be charged is limited by government and the insurance companies (it sounds like the insurance companies have a much bigger say in what can be charged for medical services here). So even out of network he still only charges about $60 USD per consultation and said he makes more doing less work. We went to a similar specialist in the US, in-network and after insurance covered their portion we still paid $60 out of pocket.

  93. Shadow/ A suggestion FWIW – construct your story in the most 'compelling' and concise way – no more than one page. State exactly what you want and why you want it. Go to the website of every company in the S&P500 and find out the name of the CEO and the company address. To each CEO, marked 'Private and Confidential' send a copy, personally signed by you along with your photo. Mention that making a difference is not easy, but if they make a contribution to your operation costs, you will keep them up to date, and they will certainly make a difference in one person's life. The 0.001% come in for a bad rap most of the time, but what would be petty cash for them, would make a big difference to you – and they know that. 

    I know of one CEO who when he is paid his bonus, literally sits down and writes checks to worthy causes that have requested his help, until his bonus has gone. His salary and stock options dwarf his bonus.

    As I said, just a suggestion. 

  94. Shadow – First of all, we need to end this topic.  Everyone on this site is aware of your problems.  If you ever want to hit your goal, you need to appeal to people who are not here and that means you need to FIX THAT PROFILE.  Everyone on the planet has a phone with a camera.  I don't even think they make phones that don't have cameras.  Every laptop now has a camera.  If you go to a phone store or a computer store or ask your mailman, they can take your picture and send it to you.  YOU need to update YOUR profile and make it better, every word you have written here needs to be organized neatly and put into your profile, saying it here for the 20th or 30th time won't do anything for you and, frankly, you need to stop talking about this during trading hours anyway.  

    Thanks Brill, I always like to hear what's going on in other places.  

    Great suggestion, Winston!  

    Meanwhile, looks like they are bound and determined to hold things up into EOQ.  

  95. Phil/RIG

    I was right here and got some RIG

    My question was: does it make sense to get some more at this level? Either the equity or some more BCS?

  96. Phil – Any thoughts on VLO and/or TSO?  Thanks!

  97. Phil no camera phone, those stores are 80 miles away, and I can't change the profile. Clearly you don't believe me. Driggs ID population 800! half the business district is closed I have been trying Jen for 2 weeks. Please stop making me sound bad, that isn't helping, nobody has given a dime for a week and today proves something. as it remains the same. I already said I am done explaining.

  98. You're welcome Phil…always glad to provide some new insights.

  99. VLO – sell some July 45 Ps….. :)

  100. Almost back to the ATHs…..Nice. 

  101. Anyone

    Last idea, if you have an old digital camera with program that loads to windows and the USB cable or want to contact me off site for any reason This would also allow me to start selling on eBay again. To sell tubes it needs to do close ups, check eBay tubes for sale. No phones please it is about $100 per month with contract. I actually have a Panasonic cordless with caller ID about 10+ years old, no cell.

  102. VIX goes pop…..I have been rolling my Puts along….in July2 195s FWIW @ $1.20.  My Net is $2.77 or so from the rolls.  Don't follow me, but I am playing for the precipitous drop just when everyone is not ready.  

  103. ~~Second letter to John Barrasso this week, come do you part write!


    I sent you a message a few days ago and as has been the case for some time I disagree with many of your directions and the proof is out today, GDP -2.9%, oil, and stock prices up. GDP is negative because of Fed policy, regressive taxes,  and subsidies to energy giants. Trickle down is a 35 year failure that started as supply side with Reagan that also started deregulating banks that totally blew up in 2008. BTW I voted for him but realized he was an actor not an economist or even a man of business. He did stop the cold war.

    About time to give up what doesn't work and that includes blaming Obama. You have done everything to block any policy he wanted to implement. Man up, take the blame game to the party of NO!

  104. RIG/Maya – Usually, I only want more if they get cheaper.  If you are DYING to own some more, you can sell Jan $40 puts for $1.80 and net $38.20 so you collect about the same as the dividend for the next 2 Qs.  Of course, keep in mind that the VIX is very low so you are getting crap prices for selling puts and the stock has just moved up 10%, so again you are not getting good prices so it's certainly not something I'd chase, not when we have 30 stocks on a Buy List and another 20 that were in the LTP last month to pick from…

    VLO/Diamond – VLO is miles better than TSO.  More so than ABX to other miners – not even close.  Still, much as VLO was one of my favorite stocks in the old days, we used to buy them on dips below $20 so coming down from $58 to $51 doesn't really get me so excited.  Not that they'll ever see $20 or probably even $40 again, just that it's very hard for me to like them 150% above where I last liked them.  If we assume that $35 is ridiculously cheap for them now, then there's no reason not to sell the 2016 $40s for $3.35 as that nets $36.65 and $3.35 is 3 year's worth of dividends ($1) for NOT owning the stock for 18 months – that's a good deal but I'd still leave room for a better sell-off as no one has downgraded them yet.  In fact, the only two guys who downgraded them since 2012 both flipped this year.

    Driggs/Shadow – Try these guys, they seem to have discovered digital photography in your area: – asking for someone's old camera is a very good idea.  I'm sure you can also use a USB card adaptor.  

    Barrasso/Shadow – So, does he answer? 

  105. Phil,

    Hydrogen vehicles.  I like this as a fuel source better than pure electric drive since producing and storing enough electrical energy to meet current transportation needs is beyond our means and tremendous resources must be expended to mine and manufacture the requisite storage capacity (at least in the case of batteries).  There is scarce mention of energy consumed in that effort.  Meanwhile, hydrogen has a lot going for it (zero emissions being foremost), but there are many drawbacks.  Number one again is the energy needed to produce the fuel.  While it is possible to produce hydrogen from renewable energy sources, producing the quantities our society needs at present is beyond what is practical from renewable sources.   This leads us to nuclear power, which the Japanese and Russians might tell you can be troublesome, or back to fossil fuels. We expand our nuclear capability by about 300% in the next 30 years or we spend some money and efficiently scrub the emissions from coal burning power plants. I think the safe bet is coal and the railroads that moves it.  Your thoughts?

  106. Barrasso always answers and not a form letter, his ideas are ridiculous especially medical, an XXXXXXXX orthopedic surgeon, wouldn't admit that until asked a gazillion times.

  107. The city Phil? Notice the picture, it ends where you see it. The airport is big enough for 747s but big private jets in and out all day, then the limo with dark windows to places not visible behind gates! 

  108. By the way, guys, if you refresh the Buy List, all the charts refresh too, so it's always easy to see what's still available at good prices. If you do notice a good bargain – please do bring them up, as all of these stocks are ones we do want to own at good prices.  

    At the moment, ABX, CCJ, CLF, EBAY, HOV (but getting away), IBM, ISRG, JDSU, NTAP, PFE, RRD, TASR, TEX, WEN and WFM haven't gotten away yet.  The other 14 are already on the move.  

    Hydrogen/Sibe – Yes, I do like the idea of using the most abundant material in the Universe for fuel.  Figure if we run out of that, we'll have bigger fish to fry (or not fry, because there would be no fuel and no water for the big fish to swim in).  I think solar and hydrogen will eventually solve our problems but a lot of work still needs to be done and, of course, there's always fusion!   I do like BTU as a coal play but it's speculative as there's a lot of disruption ahead.  Not only China but other parts of Asia and even Europe have alarming levels of smog and you'd be surprised how fast laws get written once you have a few dead children to put on a poster.  

    Fusion, if it comes, will change everything.  There was huge news this year as NIF proved conclusively that their fusion reaction (very short-term) produced more energy output than was put into it.  LMT has a plant in progress with a 2022 target date to be operational but the test is scheduled for 2017 – just 3 years away.  THAT'S DISRUPTIVE!  

  109. Nuclear – It's our only option for the foreseeable future to solve energy demands.  What will make a very big impact is the modular reactors that are going through the approval process.  It will make the projects significantly cheaper to build up and reduce transmission costs significantly which leaves the reactors cost competitive/MW on a fixed cost basis with extremely low operational costs.

  110. Winston

    Thanks for a suggestion. I recently got inspired to find a place which followed a fund that went well for a while. If you ever care to give anything further information as this is another I have no clue where to start and like sales if you make contact one out of ten your moving in the right direction. The contact you are referring is extremely well protected so I expect 100 to 1 failures. That takes lots of time and is very draining of energy. I also refused the fund for 6 months because I was determined to do everything myself. Honestly my success in sales was based on references, cold calls were at least 100 to 1. These CEOs likely get thousands of requests and what I have seen is the help goes to someone's friend. Like they say about jobs after a while your lost and too far behind the current needs. I checked one great success in funding, took the LA police and fire departments, lots of fellow workers, 2 weeks. I am sure the military is the same thing.

  111. I agree nuclear is the only answer. Proper policy not written by profit scheming is the required start. Old tech plants could be placed in safe places but no, the power companies want to save transmission costs and governments are bought by the money that only wants more money. There is the problem politicians bought by criminals with too much money that is never enough. Vote the criminals out, a start.

  112. Phil / Butterflies

    Thank you for the explanation. I actually went back to the original post for information (02/06), but I didn’t go back enough for the rest (02/03).

    As you say, the biggest risk is for the company to get acquired or go bust. In the original conversation some participants suggested the use of an ETF, like EMM or XLF, even 3X ones like FAS or TZA, thus avoiding any chance of buyout or BK.

    How about SPY or DIA? Any thoughts on the use of ETF’s?

    Thank you

  113. Hydrogen/

    Since it’s now afterhours… My two cents. First of all right now Hydrogen (H2) IS NOT zero emissions! Last time I checked there were NO H2 wells in this blue sphere we call Earth. If you want pure H2 you have to dissociate it from some chemical (water and gas the usual culprits). The usual rhetoric on the subject uses water as the starting point to get H2, with water coming back out of the exhausts of the cars. This sounds lovely except for the problem that getting H2 out of water needs A LOT of electricity, and today that electricity comes, primarily from… coal/gas power plants THAT DO HAVE emissions. Sun and wind are in their infancies and too expensive right now. The only viable solution is nuclear, but that one is mired in political rhetoric (for all the press fuss… do you know how many people died at Fukushima? Look it up).

    Then there is another little problem, very little… H is the smallest atom, and H2 is the smallest molecule, in the Universe. This makes H2 one of the toughest substances to bottle up; it just wants to fly (or blow up)! Do you remember the press those Tesla fires got recently… you haven’t seen anything yet… imagine IF H2 cars were common! (remember the Hindenburg?). Now imagine a H2 delivery truck on an accident… Have you seen the videos of gas station fires when people fuel their cars? H2 stations would have to be REALLY safe. I could go on…

    Gas powered fuel cells are much safer/easier, but once again you have… CO2!

    I am not an advocate of oil, far from it, but those pipe dreams distract us from following small FEASIBLE steps towards cheaper and cleaner energy. Delaying the mass deployment of nuclear energy is only going to make things worst. Solar will never be feasible in the more northerly latitudes and, like wind, it can’t handle demand peaks. Unfortunately fusion is decades away, at best, and I doubt anyone on this board will live to see the first commercial one go online.

    I think a more intelligent approach is being pursued by BMW since its hybrid alternative is a plug in electric with an optional gas powered turbine. For most commuters the pure electric version would satisfy their daily demands (you get 100 mi total + office time charge). However for those in need for greater range (up to 200 mi) the gas turbine is ALWAYS at peak performance and is very efficient with very little emissions (and you can refuel in minutes instead of hours).

    Another thing we should pursue in the mean time is getting better gas mileage from regular gasoline/diesel/gas engines. If mandated to do so I think we could double engine efficiency in this decade and double/triple it in the next at very little cost/effort.

    And don’t get me started on “organic” fuels obtained from crops!

    But, of course, everyone has it’s own agenda! Follow the money!


  114. I forgot one of TESLA’s big lies… zero emissions. Your TESLA can only be zero emissions when/if you connect it to a solar/wind/tides/nuclear power plant. As long as you connect it to the grid you INCREASE coal/gas power plant emissions.

  115. ~~akademia

    I back every word you say and so glad you said it all. I think nuclear can be much safer and it is here now. H2 isn't safe but a great idea and I will add getting it from natural gas fails the well to wheel efficiency test, from water is way worse. I will add that TSLA is way off track if only the amount of lithium batteries needed that are not all that green in production or charging. I have a Subaru that I have been playing with tuning. It got 23 mpg, I got it to a engine safe 50mpg, 60 was so lean it would burn up the motor. I am sure of 2 things at 50 mpg it would fail emission test although burning less than half the fuel is never considered and the oil giants have a problem with any reduction of use. We need un-bought politicians.

  116. The reason you'll fail an emissions test is due to high production of NOx when operating at high temperatures characteristic of a lean burn.  What I want to see is somebody develop an O2 concentration system where we're feeding pure O2 into the cylinders which removes all emissions that aren't COx or H2O.  That would enable much higher combustion temperatures and as per thermodynamics, MUCH higher efficiencies.  

    The only big hold up with a system like this (apart from cost & weight) is concentrated O2 is highly flammable which would require on-the-fly concentration.  

  117. akademia, shadow, 

    I agree with you regarding future energy supply and transportation.  Nuclear, in some form, must come into play (thorium reactors, fusion, etc).  However, we have not built a nuclear plant in this country since 1995 ( I think that was the last) and that one took 10 + years to build so ramping up nuclear is a multi-decade task, in my view.  What we have here and now is lots of coal, lots of natural gas for a brief time, and declining oil.  We can drastically reduce the emissions from burning coal with current technology if we are willing to spend the money to do so and that would largely free up that resource again, I should think.  Reducing the energy we consume in all forms is a must to enable maximum benefit to society from the known resources we have available.  From an investment perspective I can't see a path forward that does not include coal so the more beaten down that sector becomes to more I like it.

  118. Anyone who may be interest I increased fuel efficiency by changing injector latency, scale, and fuel ratio targets. Original A/F ratio target was a best 14.7 to low 11 to 1, I found 17 to 1 on premium causes no knock under light acceleration. Then I bypassed the MAF sensor and built a fuel efficiency table to accommodate turbo boost. At full throttle over 6,000 rpm it still falls to 11 to 1 F/A but under less than drag race conditions achieved a maximum 85% efficiency. We can rewrite sensible laws using total ton of CO2 emitted and cut gas consumption in half with what is already in cars today. I did this on a 2004 Subaru STI with a supped up engine big turbo, injectors etc, 450 wheel HP over 500 at crank. Fact is I gained 25 HP and 40 lbf torque and yes under full throttle it gets less than 1 MPG but you can't hold that for 5 seconds or triple digit speed. Last max mpg requires less than 60 mph. Yes NOX is out there!

  119. Sibe / hydrogen,    Coal is not efficient, a lot of people working in different concepts that makes coal use more expensive that NG or even nuclear. Coal is very well accepted in U.S because of cost but other countries with carbon taxes are eliminating it.

    Nuclear;  a lot of new things coming, nuclear batteries, uranium oxide reactors, in the meantime we find the cornestone of fussion energy  next 50 years will have gas and nuclear as backbone, at least for what is doing China (opening a new plant each 2 weeks), the new energy is coming from this 2 sources.


    JPH is attaching  sttaching  info about modular nuclear reactors…assembled in line, as batteries, great concept cming very soon.

  120. sibe14 / COx

    Unfortunately coal will always have as a byproduct of burning COx emissions. As much as you try to purify coal powered plants you can only remove sooth and heavy metals. Using pure coal in the lab, C, and burning it in a pure oxygen atmosphere, O2, you get CO2 and CO (temperature/pressure dependant). That COx you can’t “clean”, period.

    It has been proposed sequestering it in empty oil/gas fields, but that is too expensive and impractical since you can’t transport spent oil fields to the required areas next to the plants :-)

  121. Hey all coal discussion

    Best thing I have heard of is drill hole into a coal bed, add enzymes, and out comes natural gas. No real knowledge but they do the same to rejuvenate old gas wells. Any better knowledge?

  122. is there a link for tues seminar yet I cant find it


  123. Wow.  So much for the future of "clean" energy.  Shifting energy production away from fossil fuels is, apparently, possible, but not, given the constraints set forth above, even slightly probable within the foreseeable future.  That means CO2 levels and global warming are "game on" as all 7 Billion+ souls on earth seek to cool their houses and charge their devices.  As I have spent 1/2 of my time for the last six months exiled in Miami Beach of necessity, I imagine that, someday,  I'll be able to revisit my former haunts with scuba tanks after they rename the place "Miami Deep" -- the water is most definitely rising and flooding the streets here with great regularity.

  124. Is Google underpriced?  

  125. anyone care to share their thoughts on gopro?  ipo tomorrow

  126. Toe / GoPro  ;

    My feeling is that as with other private ventures they decides to have an IPO when the market is declining, they took advantage of the initial effect of being the first one, having a market for they alone.

    Now you can find competitors with good products, a prices will come down.  If I have to decide something about this is that GoPro  product is maturing very fast  , in addition to that , it seems it´s coming VERY EXPENSIVE.  for me is a short.

  127. Deano / Apple:

    They are selling over 130 million units per year, how many high income new users can Apple get?

    How many actual Iphone users will change to IP6 ? or how many high income Android users will migrate to IOs?, is not Apple, is big numbers law.

    Unless they can create a new market ( as it was IPhone or Ipod) not a complimentary market (as Iwatch could be) numbers will not move dramatically, how many millions units you need to move quotation $1?.

    As a Apple fan that got grey hair suffering the stock during the last 2 years (I got trapped with 50% of my portfolio over $600), now that finally I´m breakeven …2 years later see Apple as a retirement play only.

  128. From Bloomberg, Jun 26, 2014, 6:14:49 AM

    June 26 (Bloomberg) — Sarbjit Nahal, head of thematic investing at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, talks about investment opportunities arising from aging populations in global economies.
    He speaks in Hong Kong with Angie Lau on Bloomberg Television’s “First Up.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Emerging-market stocks rebounded
    from a three-week low and shares in Europe gained for the first
    time in five days on speculation the Federal Reserve will keep
    interest rates lower for longer. New Zealand’s dollar and the
    pound strengthened while gold declined.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  129. From Bloomberg, Jun 26, 2014, 5:54:28 AM

    June 24 (Bloomberg) — White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest speaks about President Barack Obama’s telephone call to U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron about the situation in Ukraine and Iraq.
    Earnest, speaking at the daily news briefing in Washington, also discusses carbon emission regulation and the outlook for reauthorization of the U.S. Export-Import Bank. (Source: Bloomberg)

    Ukraine isn’t “too optimistic” that it will soon clinch a peace deal with separatist rebels as the U.S. and the European Union raise pressure on Russia to ease violence that has killed hundreds in the country’s east.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  130. From Bloomberg, Jun 26, 2014, 6:08:09 AM

    “This has been a disappointing first half,” Chief Executive Officer Peter Sands, 52, said in a statement today. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

    Standard Chartered Plc dropped the
    most in almost seven months in London trading after the U.K.
    bank said first-half operating profit is likely to fall by 20
    percent, dragged down by lower financial-markets revenue.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  131. From Bloomberg, Jun 26, 2014, 3:23:38 AM

    Eric Schneiderman, attorney general of New York. Photographer: Louis Lanzano/Bloomberg

    Last October, managers told an
    employee in Barclays (BARC) Plc’s trading unit to keep from clients a
    report showing the bank routed most of their dark pool orders to
    itself, according to the New York attorney general.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  132. From Bloomberg, Jun 26, 2014, 4:17:54 AM

    Prime Minister Shinzo Abe declared the end of deflation in an interview this week, and he now needs firms to dig into record cash piles and boost wages that are lagging inflation. Photographer: Tomohiro Ohsumi/Bloomberg

    Japanese women are giving their
    husbands a reprieve, allowing them larger monthly allowances to
    offset a sales-tax rise at the start of the financial year.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  133. From Bloomberg, Jun 26, 2014, 6:04:27 AM

    June 20 (Bloomberg) — Kelvin Tay, chief investment officer for South Asia Pacific at UBS Wealth Management, talks about U.S. and European stocks.
    Tay also discusses the impact of the political unrest in Iraq on global financial markets, and Federal Reserve policy. He speaks from Singapore with Angie Lau on Bloomberg Television’s “First Up.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    European stocks advanced, snapping a
    four-day decline, amid increased mergers-and-acquisitions
    activity, and as investors awaited data to assess the health of
    the U.S. economy. U.S. index futures were little changed, while
    Asian shares rose.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  134. From Bloomberg, Jun 26, 2014, 6:01:59 AM

    The body of a passenger killed in a shooting is placed in an ambulance at Peshawar airport in Pakistan. Photographer: Mohammad Sajjad/AP Photo

    Tariq Chaudhry had little time to
    react when a storm of bullets headed straight toward him as he
    piloted a Pakistan International Airlines Corp. plane with about
    200 people aboard toward the runway in Peshawar two days ago.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  135. Watch this video at

    Google Takes on Apple With New Version of Android

    June 25 (Bloomberg) — Google unveiled a new version of its Android software for smartphones and other devices as it battles Apple to be the foundation for mobile technology. Jon Erlichman reports on “Taking Stock.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  136. Watch this video at

    Iraq Insurgents Renew Attacks on Baiji Refinery

    June 26 (Bloomberg) –- In “The Big Picture,” Bloomberg’s Angie Lau reports on the top stories of the day on Bloomberg Television’s “First Up.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  137. Watch this video at

    This Futuristic Hoverbike Lets You Fly Like a Jedi

    June 26 (Bloomberg) — A Los Angeles-based company, AeroFex, has developed the Aero-X, a Star Wars style hoverbike. Set for release in 2017 and priced at $85,000 it’s challenging the way we think about travel. (Source: Bloomberg)

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  138. From Bloomberg, Jun 26, 2014, 6:06:12 AM

    June 26 (Bloomberg) — Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, talks about the London housing market and the role of the Bank of England in ensuring financial stability.
    He speaks with Mark Barton and Anna Edwards on Bloomberg Television’s “Countdown.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Mark Carney said the biggest risks to Britain’s recovery stem from the housing market as he introduced measures to limit riskier mortgages and prevent an unsustainable buildup of consumer debt.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  139. From Bloomberg, Jun 26, 2014, 3:31:25 AM

    June 26 (Bloomberg) — Miles Shipside, director at Rightmove Plc, discusses the outlook for the U.K. housing market and mortgage approvals.
    He speaks with Olivia Sterns and Guy Johnson on Bloomberg Television’s “The Pulse.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Mark Carney is making life harder
    for himself.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  140. From Bloomberg, Jun 25, 2014, 5:00:00 PM

    Riza Sarraf, center, is surrounded by journalists as he arrives at a police station in Istanbul on December 17, 2013. Photographer: Ozan Kose/AFP/Getty Images

    As the minister in charge of Turkey’s $800 billion economy in 2013, Zafer Caglayan was facing a series of numbers that didn’t bode well for coming elections. Inflation was up, growth was slowing and the lira was weakening.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  141. From Bloomberg, Jun 26, 2014, 1:59:02 AM

    One kilogram gold ingots are displayed for a photograph at a gold dealer in Beijing, China. Photographer: Nelson Ching/Bloomberg News

    China’s chief auditor discovered 94.4 billion yuan ($15.2 billion) of loans backed by falsified gold transactions, adding to signs of possible fraud in commodities financing deals.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  142. From Bloomberg, Jun 26, 2014, 3:50:07 AM

    Gold bangles are put on a bride’s wrist during the tea ceremony of her wedding in Hong Kong, China. Photographer: Brent Lewin/Bloomberg

    The global flow of gold from west to east that helped to make China the world’s largest user will probably last for up to two decades as rising incomes spur demand, according to the China Gold Association.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  143. From Bloomberg, Jun 25, 2014, 11:27:06 AM

    French Finance Minister Michel Sapin. Photographer: Balint Porneczi/Bloomberg

    UBS AG (UBSN), BNP Paribas SA (BNP), Credit
    Suisse Group AG (CSGN)
    and other banks providing wealthy French people
    a home for their money in Switzerland are being told: No more
    tax evasion.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  144. From Bloomberg, Jun 25, 2014, 7:01:00 PM

    The spending slump comes as airports make shopping a key component of profit generation. Photographer: Mario Proenca/Bloomberg

    European airports are suffering from
    a slump in retail sales that typically deliver two-thirds of
    profit at major hubs as a sliding ruble curbs spending of
    Russians who can spend four times as much as the average traveler.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  145. From Bloomberg, Jun 26, 2014, 5:35:32 AM

    Skyscrapers stand in the Sheikh Zayed road area of Dubai. Dubai’s economy may grow 4.7 percent this year, Mohamed Lahouel, chief economist for the Dubai Department of Economic Development, said in March. Photographer: Duncan Chard/Bloomberg

    For all the losses suffered by
    Dubai’s stock investors this week, the Middle East sheikhdom’s
    bonds are showing few signs of following the rout.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  146. From Bloomberg, Jun 25, 2014, 5:04:35 PM

    Aereo Inc. Chief Executive Officer Chet Kanojia has said previously that the startup didn’t have a Plan B if the Supreme Court ruled against it. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

    Broadcasters protected some $4 billion in fees by persuading the U.S. Supreme Court to deal what’s likely a fatal blow to streaming-video service Aereo Inc.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  147. Watch this video at

    Is a Poor GDP Number Already Priced Into Stocks?

    June 25 (Bloomberg) –- JPMorgan Private Bank West Director of Fixed Income Heather Loomis, Marcus & Millichap Chief Strategy Officer Hessam Nadji and UBS Global Asset Management Portfolio Manager Michele Gambera discuss stocks rising despite weak economic data and the possible reasons for the rally. They speak to Trish Regan, Matt Miller and Julie Hyman on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  148. Watch this video at

    BOE Mustn’t `Micromanage’ London House Prices: RICS

    June 26 (Bloomberg) — Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, talks about the London housing market and the role of the Bank of England in ensuring financial stability.
    He speaks with Mark Barton and Anna Edwards on Bloomberg Television’s “Countdown.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  149. From Bloomberg, Jun 26, 2014, 3:25:46 AM

    June 24 (Bloomberg) — Shane Oliver, Sydney-based head of investment strategy at AMP Capital Investors Ltd., talks about the outlook for oil prices and Iraq’s unrest, U.S. stocks and the Australian dollar.
    Oliver also discusses China’s economy. He speaks with Angie Lau on Bloomberg Television’s “First Up.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    The Australian dollar’s rebound from
    its worst plunge since 1985 is proving so strong that
    strategists the world over are having a hard time keeping up
    with the gains.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  150. From Bloomberg, Jun 26, 2014, 2:00:46 AM

    The extra yield on Treasury two-year
    notes over the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate was at
    the widest since September before a report projected to show a
    gauge of U.S. inflation accelerated in May.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  151. From Bloomberg, Jun 26, 2014, 1:28:34 AM

    April 14 (Bloomberg) — Michael Liang, the chief investment officer at Foundation Asset Management (HK) Ltd., talks about China’s plan to connect the stock exchanges of Hong Kong and Shanghai.
    Liang speaks with Angie Lau on Bloomberg Television’s “First Up.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    China expanded banks’ freedom to set
    foreign-currency deposit rates in Shanghai, a step toward easing
    interest-rate controls across the nation.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  152. From Bloomberg, Jun 26, 2014, 12:00:01 AM

    Stepped-up spending plans are helping reverse the surprise slowdown of the global economy at the start of the year. Photographer: Angel Navarette/Bloomberg

    Companies from Ford Motor Co. to Panasonic (6752) Corp. are providing fresh fuel for the global economy as they begin to bolster employment and investment.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  153. From Bloomberg, Jun 25, 2014, 10:11:10 PM

    June 23 (Bloomberg) — David Gaud, a senior money manager at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management in Hong Kong, talks about India and China stocks.
    Gaud also talks about oil prices. He speaks with Angie Lau on Bloomberg Television’s “First Up.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Bank of China Ltd. and Sumitomo
    Banking Corp. are leading a surge in loans to Australian
    companies by lenders from Asia’s two biggest economies.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  154. From Bloomberg, Jun 25, 2014, 7:09:21 PM

    The Federal Reserve’s lower-for-longer interest rate stance is spurring stocks and bonds as
    volatility subsides. It’s also fueling inflation expectations
    that threaten to bring asset prices tumbling down.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  155. From Bloomberg, Jun 25, 2014, 4:53:12 PM

    Not a cloud in the etc.

    Here’s a pretty interesting Bloomberg News story about proprietary trading at Citigroup. Here’s a schematic summary:

    To read the entire article, go to

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  156. From Bloomberg, Jun 25, 2014, 6:03:36 PM

    Is this where the black money stops?

    Fairy tales always end with the words “and they lived happily ever after,” which is why in our cynical age even toddlers have stopped taking them seriously. Millions of adult Indians, however, enthusiastically propagate a grown-up version of happily ever after.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  157. From Bloomberg, Jun 25, 2014, 6:03:35 PM

    A casino’s worst enemy.                                                                                       

    As investors place bets on Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s program for economic growth, the success of Japan’s revival plans may rest, oddly enough, on casinos.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  158. From Bloomberg, Jun 25, 2014, 5:08:00 PM

    Aereo Chief Executive Officer Chet Kanojia.

    I’m a bit disappointed in today’s U.S. Supreme Court ruling on Aereo Inc.’s copyright case, though not for the same reason as Aereo users. Broadcasters were threatening to stop broadcasting their content if Aereo was allowed to keep retransmitting it for free, and I was really looking forward to seeing whether they would make good on their threat. I was pretty sure that this was PR posturing for the sake of influencing the court. But I wasn’t entirely sure, and that little bit of uncertainty promised to make things interesting for the next few weeks.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  159. From Bloomberg, Jun 25, 2014, 1:49:50 PM

    Andy Coulson is just the latest media adviser to self-implode.

    The conviction of Andy Coulson, U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron’s former spin doctor, for hacking private telephones when he was a newspaper editor triggered a furious attack on the government in Parliament today. That was inevitable — the opposition smells blood. The focus of the assault, however, is misplaced.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  160. From Bloomberg, Jun 25, 2014, 1:29:23 PM

    The bigger-screen idea is a throwback to an age of confusing product lines. 

    ((Corrects spelling of CEO name in fifth paragraph.))

    To read the entire article, go to

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  161. Overseas

    06:00 AM ET

    • Japan +0.27%.
    • Hong Kong +1.45%.
    • China +0.65%.
    • India -0.98%.
    • London +0.07%.
    • Paris +0.11%.
    • Frankfurt +0.11%.

  162. Thursday’s economic calendar

    12:00 AM ET

  163. Lennar beats by $0.10, beats on revenue

    06:01 AM ET · LEN

    • Lennar (LEN): FQ2 EPS of $0.61 beats by $0.10.
    • Revenue of $1.82B (+27.3% Y/Y) beats by $140M.
    • Press Release

  164. Philip Morris drops 2014 earnings forecast

    04:20 AM ET · PM

    • Philip Morris (PM) reports a drop to its 2014 forecast, cutting earnings to $4.87-$4.97 per share, from the $5.09-$5.19 per share it previously expected. The company still estimates adjusted profit in 2014 to rise 6-8%.
    • “We continue to face significant currency headwinds, an improving but weak macro-economic environment in the European Union and known challenges in Asia,” says CEO Andre Calantzopoulos.
    • PM -0.1% AH

  165. Reuters: BNP may face one-year dollar clearing ban

    03:12 AM ET · BNPQF

    • BNP Paribas (BNPQF) may now face another penalty from U.S. authorities due to its money transfer sanction violations. The NY Department of Financial Services is now looking to impose a year suspension on the bank for currency conversions, Reuters reports.
    • The suspension will prohibit a service known as “dollar clearing,” which will suspend the bank from converting foreign currencies to dollars in some businesses. BNP’s New York branch clears hundreds of billions of dollars every day in trade finance, commodities businesses, custodian accounts and foreign exchange.
    • On top of its expected $9B fine, the suspension will cause a hefty hit to the bank’s services, although it will allow BNP to retain its license to operate in New York. S&P has said earlier this month that the bank’s long-term credit rating is at stake, as a result of the upcoming new penalties.

  166. Barclays withdraws bond offering after dark pool lawsuit

    02:42 AM ET · BCS

    • Barclays (BCS) has withdrawn a $1.5B bond offering, after yesterday’s news that NY attorney general Eric Shneiderman will sue the bank for securities fraud. The bank already received more than $4.5B in orders for the 10-year subordinated deal, before the lawsuit took its toll.
    • The claim accuses Barclays of favoring high frequency traders over other investors, and charges the bank of falsely representing the concentration of HFT in its dark pool.
    • BCS -0.3% AH

  167. Crude oil exports remain illegal

    01:47 AM ET · PXD

    • Following yesterday’s reports that the ban on U.S. oil exports will begin to narrow, the White house has announced that there has been no change to its policy.
    • Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) and Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) received permission this week to ship condensates to foreign buyers, leading reports to surface about a change to export policy. However, U.S. law allows for refined oil, even minimally refined, to be exported under the name fuel, instead of crude oil.

  168. Eagle Ford condensate producers win, refiners lose in oil export decision

    Yesterday, 07:17 PM ET · VLO

    • The decision to allow two Texas companies to export condensates looks like a win for Eagle Ford Shale crude producers at the expense of refiners and companies planning to build processing plants along the Gulf coast.
    • Today’s selloff in refiners reflected concern that the groups will lose some of their competitive edge if condensate exports become common: Valero Energy (VLO), the largest U.S. refiner, dropped 8.3%, PBF tumbled 10.72%, PSX fell 4.2%, and HFC slid 6.7%.
    • Oppenheimer notes that Pioneer Natural Resources PXD, DVN, MRO, COP and MUR produce the most Eagle Ford condensate, and could benefit if U.S. condensate prices close some of the gap with European prices; EOG, the largest Eagle Ford producer, produces little condensate and likely benefits little from the lifting of the condensate ban.
    • Investor reaction toward Gulf Coast gathering and processing MLPs such as EPD, MMP, KMP and NGLS was more muted, since plans to build splitters in Texas may be undermined by even modest rule changes in the crude export ban that allow Eagle Ford producers to sell condensate after running it from the wellhead to their own nearby – and much cheaper – distillation towers.

  169. Amazon roundup: Local services, drones, antitrust complaint

    Yesterday, 07:02 PM ET · AMZN

    • TechCrunch reports Amazon (AMZN) is working on a local takeout ordering service that would compete with GrubHub (GRUB). The offering will initially be part of the Amazon Local deals platform.
    • The report follows one from Reuters stating Amazon is building a local services marketplace that would compete with Angie’s List. It also coincides with news of a partnership between local reviews leader YELP and GrubHub rival EatStreet.
    • Following reports to the contrary, Amazon insists new FAA guidelines restricting drone use don’t affect the company’s drone plans. “This is about hobbyists and model aircraft, not Amazon.”
    • Jeff Bezos stated last December Amazon’s drone service, called Prime Air, is expected to go live in 4-5 years. Plenty of questions about safety and reliability still exist.
    • Following a dispute with book publisher Bonnier that has led to delayed order shipments, a German publishers’ trade group has filed an antitrust complaint. Amazon has already been contending with periodic strikes in the country.

  170. GoPro prices IPO at $24

    Yesterday, 06:35 PM ET · GPRO

    • GoPro’s (GPRO) IPO price is at the high end of a $21-$24 range, and suggests the sports/action camera vendor will see a strong debut tomorrow.
    • GoPro is set to raise $213.6M by selling 8.9M new shares; an equal number of shares are being sold by existing holders. The IPO price values the company at $2.95B, or 3x 2013 sales.
    • Prospectus, IPO analysis
    • Prior GoPro coverage

  171. Qualcomm buys power amplifier vendor Black Sand

    Yesterday, 06:22 PM ET · QCOM

    • Black Sand Technologies, based out of Austin, was founded in ’05 and has raised $28.2M in funding over its history.
    • Notably, the product page on Black Sand’s site only shows 3G amplifiers, and the most recent PR on its news page is from 2012. All signs suggest Qualcomm (QCOM) is buying the company to strengthen its power amplifier IP and/or engineering talent, as it encroaches on the turf of established vendors such as Skyworks (SWKS), TriQuint (TQNT), RF Micro (RFMD), and Avago (AVGO) with system-level solutions.
    • Qualcomm, estimated to have 64% of the 2013 baseband processor market, made a dramatic entry into the amplifier market last year by announcing an RF front end solution (amplifiers included) that promised superior 3G/4G multi-band support and (via technologies such as envelope tracking) power efficiency. Skyworks, TriQuint, and RF Micro all tumbled following the announcement.

  172. Phil, Now that we're seen a pullback in APPL, I wonder if its time to restructure as we all expect great things in the second half of the year. Below are my holdings. Since the pop I've been selling weekly calls against them but will probably wrap that up soon. Was thinking of rolling the jan15 78.5 down to 71.43 buy rolling the jan15 put to 85ish jan16 puts. Should to 2016 BCS be adjusted? Also, what would be best way to approach new APPL position in different account? As always, appreciate suggestions.

    +49 jan15 71.43 call     +21 jan15 78.5 call    -21 jan15 78.57 put 

    +105  jan16 85.71/107.14 BCS       jan16 78.57 put

  173. SPY 5 MINUTEGood morning!  

    Oil gaive us another shot at $106.50 to short this morning (/CL), I'm feeling good about it today.  

    Indexes flattish but Europe turning lower after a good open which followed Hang Seng up 1.45% and Shanghai up 0.65%, mostly just bouncing after pretty big drops for the week.

    Asian Stocks Rise as Investors Watch for U.S. Recovery. Asian stocks rose, led by technology shares, amid optimism the U.S. economy is emerging from a worse-than-estimated contraction last quarter. Yahoo Japan Corp., an Internet portal operator, added 1.7 percent after saying it will acquire KC Card Co.’s credit and financial operations. Rakuten Inc. rose 3.5 percent after the Japanese online retailer was reported to be in talks to invest in a discount airline with AirAsia Bhd. Innolux Corp., a maker of monitors, jumped 6.9 percent in Taipei, leading gains among information technology shares. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.5 percent to 145.01 as of 10:56 a.m. in Tokyo, with all of its 10 industry groups advancing.

    Dollar still low (80.28) with gold at $1,310, silver $20.89, copper $3.16 (still creeping up – go FCX), nat gas (inventory today) $4.58 and gasoline failing $3.10 at $3.0921 due to total lack of demand, even with the holiday looming.

    GDP Disaster: Final Q1 GDP Crashes To -2.9%, Lowest Since 2009, Far Below The Worst Expectations. (graph)

    In The First Quarter $250 Billion In Federal Debt Bought Negative $74 Billion In GDP

    Fed warns banks they face tougher testsThe Federal Reserve has warned banks in the US that tests of their ability to survive a financial crisis will be made tougher – with new risk assessments and regular checks to ensure they fix any weaknesses identified in the process.


     Hedge Fund Industry Surpasses $3 Trillion for First Time

    The Rise Of Robo-Advisor Is Reminiscent Of What Happens Before Major Market Corrections

    SP500 WallStreet Innovation 062414

    Investor Psychology Cycle 040814

    How Barclays Got Caught Red-Handed With "Pernicious HFT Fraud"

    Behind the Productivity Plunge: Fewer StartupsNew businesses were created at a 30% lower rate in 2012 than the annual average rate in the 1980s.

    IRS agents head to Macau as U.S. steps up scrutiny of casinosU.S. authorities are ramping up their investigation into money flows from gambling hotspot Macau to ensure that U.S. casinos with operations there are not used as conduits to funnel crime proceeds from Asia and elsewhere into the U.S. financial system.

    Turkey's "200 Tons Of Secret Gold" Trade With Iran: The Biggest, Most Bizarre Money Laundering Scheme Ever

    SAMSUNG: Our Next Earnings Report Is Going To Be Pretty Bad

    Supreme Court: Police Need Warrants to Search Cellphone DataUnanimous Supreme Court Says Privacy Interests Outweigh Police Convenience.

    ISIS Holds Parade With Captured US Military Vehicles

    Baghdad May Lose Its Drinking Water As ISIS Approaches Second Largest Dam

    Iraqi Officials: We Have Essentially Given Up The North Of The Country

  174. Butterflies/Akad – That is a good idea, we can do an index one but, with a low VIX, the rewards aren't generally good enough to justify the risk.  To some extent, our FAS Money trade in the STP is that kind of trade except there we have the more aggressively bullish bull call spread and 2016 short puts and we usually only sell the front calls (because that's the direction we're protected) but we've sold a few puts too, when the price is right. 

    On that trade, so far this year, we're up $3,530, but that includes a huge loss we just took on the short June $90s while our long spread gains have not been realized yet:

    10 FAS 2014 19-JUL 95.00 CALL SC $ 6,050.00 6/5/2014 $ 5,600.00   21
    $ -450.00 -8.0 %
    10 FAS 2014 21-JUN 90.00 CALL SC $ 7,600.00 5/22/2014 $ 3,100.00 6/5/2014 14
    $ -4,500.00 -145.2 %
    10 FAS 2014 17-MAY 90.00 CALL SC $ 0.00 4/17/2014 $ 3,000.00 5/16/2014 29
    $ 3,000.00 100 %
    5 FAS 2014 19-APR 96.00 CALL SC $ 160.00 4/2/2014 $ 1,500.00 4/8/2014 6
    $ 1,340.00 89.3 %
    10 FAS 2014 19-APR 90.00 CALL SC $ 3,850.00 3/20/2014 $ 6,900.00 3/27/2014 7
    $ 3,050.00 44.2 %
    10 FAS 2014 22-MAR 85.00 CALL SC $ 6,700.00 2/6/2014 $ 3,580.00 3/19/2014 41
    $ -3,120.00 -87.2 %
    5 FAS 2014 07-FEB 90.00 CALL SC $ 90.00 1/13/2014 $ 2,650.00 2/4/2014 22
    $ 2,560.00 96.6 %
    10 FAS 2016 15-JAN 62.00 PUT SP $ 6,750.00 1/13/2014 $ 9,300.00   164
    $ 2,550.00 27.4 %
    10 FAS 2016 15-JAN 105.00 CALL SC $ 17,300.00 1/13/2014 $ 16,200.00   164
    $ -1,100.00 -6.8 %
    10 FAS 2016 15-JAN 85.00 CALL LC $ 24,300.00 1/13/2014 $ 24,500.00   164
    $ 200.00 0.8 %
    Total Gain/Loss for FAS
    $ 3,530.00 4.8 %

    The problem with FAS for some people is that it's margin-intensive but it's by far the best ETF for generating cash over the long-haul (in the short haul it can get quite painful).  

    If we were, for example, to set up XLF as a butterfly/condor trade, we could buy the 2016 $20 puts for $1.05 and the $24 calls for $1.20 and sell the Sept $22 calls for $1.05 and the $23 puts for .75 so we collect 0.80 in premium no matter which way they go.  Then we'd roll the loser and hopefully sell .80 more premium and 0.80 per quarter for 6 quarters is $4.80 back on our $2.25 investment.  Seems boring but very nice if it works out.  The problem is that XLF can move $2 a quarter and this trade would become annoying if it moved up or down $2 two quarters in a row (putting us $1.40 behind, which essentially would cost us the next 2 Qs of profits, even if we made perfect calls).

    So it's not that I don't WANT to use ETFs, I look at hundreds of different candidates for Butterflies and reject 99% of them for various reasons.  In the case of ETFs with the low VIX, the reward isn't generally large enough to justify the risks.  

    I think your premise focuses on the risk of being acquired or BK but that then assumes that I don't think I'm smart enough to pick a company that won't be acquired or go BK – that's not how I feel about it.  It's A factor but not THE factor and I'm certainly not going to sacrifice the potential to make money in exchange for safety from an event I feel it very unlikely to happen. 

    That's why we don't put too many eggs in these baskets, though – do it long enough and one of them WILL blow up on you.  If we get completely blown out on 10 contracts with a $10 spread (I don't even think we have a gap that big), we lose $10,000.  Since we already made $22,000 this year, we can effectively self-insure against that possibility.

    Oh, hey, that's another factor!  Notice we don't play $500 stocks.  That's because we COULD get blown out $50 on even 5 contracts and it would be ugly.  Having a fairly tight safety net is another factor in our selection.  

    BMW/Akad – I think that point does need to be made.  TSLA is actually DAMAGING the environment but making cars with ridiculously large batteries instead of hybrids.  TM has reams of data with the Prius and it turns out a 60-mile range takes care of 90% of people's driving (and the new BMWs only have a 75-mile range, so they must agree).  That's 1/4 of TSLA's battery which means TSLA is putting 4x more batteries in the cars than required and that leads to 4x more pollution on the battery end (and sucks up 4x more resources).  There's no pollution from a hybrid gas engine when it's idle and, if it's idle 90% of the time, that's 90% less CO2 with 75% less batteries – a much more sensible solution.  

    Musk is trying to make range a thing but it's not a thing for most drivers.  Musk's secret motive is to get his GigaFactory funded so he can make cheaper storage batteries for SCTY, not TSLA.

    Speaking of energy savings, Light Emitting Plasma is the next big thing – major advantages for commercial lighting and will likely hit the homes in the not-too-distant future.  

    Seminar, Tommy – link right in the above post.  

    GOOG/ZZ – Probably underpriced but I'd go with a conservative, long-term play because they are into an investment cycle that won't be earnings-friendly.  After this earnings, if they drop 10%, I think I'd be into buying them.  

    Gopro/Toe, Advill, overpriced but I've learned not to short for that reason alone.  Just a stay away to me.

    AAPL/Deano – LOL, I love it when the professional analysts begin to catch on to our valuations.  

    AAPL/Advill – Good article above.  At the moment, they are simply missing the people who just want a bigger phone – that's all upside for them in the new designs.  Maybe it's just me but I want a smaller phone because I pretty much only use my phone as – a phone!  Ideally, I'd like a pen-sized phone I can just talk to and ask Siri questions or get directions (so needs a good speaker) and tell it who to call.  If I get a text, it can read it to me.  The Nano has great battery life, I'm sure they can get there with a tiny phone if they cut it down to the basics.  

    AAPL/JMD – I'm not a fan of naked calls as your premium gets eaten away.  I don't know what you paid for the calls but the Jan $71.43s are $19.50 so 49 of those is $95,550 and 21 of the $78.57s at $13.40 is another $28,140 so $123,690 tied up in those two alone.  I'm going to assume you have at least $2M in your portfolio to have such a big allocation of AAPL as the 105 $85/107 bull call spreads are another $7.50 for $78,570 more.  And there's my point anyway, the $85/107 bull call spread will return $22 at $107, which is +$14.50 from where it is now.  AAPL is at $90 so $107 is +$17.  That means, the bull call spreads you have would make only $3 less than your naked calls if AAPL gets to $107 but tie up (on 70 contracts) $52.500 – that's  60% LESS than you currently have at risk.  

    So I like those for a new play and there's nothing but greed driving you to hold those calls, you risk too much on the off chance AAPL jumps 20% which, don't forget, would be $110Bn in market cap or an entire AMZN.  Do you really think AAPL will gain an AMZN in value in 2 years to the point where you want to tie up 150% more capital than you have to (and risk 150% more capital) in case that happens?  

    So I'd take the risk off the table and I wouldn't even buy offsetting puts unless AAPL goes down further and then you can sell more short puts and use that money to roll your calls lower and make a wider spread.  

    Soccer/Advill – Is that still on?  cheeky

  175. Phil- Can you direct me to an options trading instructional that explains in detail what you mean when you say that premium gets eaten away with a naked call and more importantly teach me more about the spreads you like to use? Doesn't the same premium decay happen to long side calls in a spread? I understand that the spreads offer some protection from losing everything if the price drops drastically, but I don't understand how it offers protection from premium decay? I don't want to waste everyone's time, so if there is a good place to read up on this stuff, I would appreciate knowing where to go. 

  176. BBBY-  anyone else think this one is overdone?  2016 50/60 BCS is $5 (50% in the money),  52.5 Put is $4.80  So $.20 for $10 in 18 months.  Open to better ideas…

  177. Soccer / Phil,


    Believe or not  USA is in the next round, !!,  Was a god match with Germany….Congrats!

  178. /CL / Phil  ;  still short?

  179. LOL, this is yesterday's post guys!  

  180. uuupppsss