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Monday Misgivings – CASH!!! Is King as we Begin Q3

SPY 5 MINUTEI'm NOT going to depress you.

If you want to be depressed about the market, check out my Twitter Account, where I posted our Morning Alert to Philstockworld Members (and you can become one of those HERE) in which I aired my concerns with the Global Macros.  

As you can see from Dave Fry's SPY chart, the volume on Friday was very low – incredibly so as it was a Russell re-balancing day, when we can usually expect very HEAVY volume.  Today is, in fact, the very last day of Q2, so we expect "window-dressing" to hold us up for at least another day but then there's only 2 and 1/2 days until the 3-day weekend, so perhaps the charade can continue all week.  

Last week we discussed the various forms of market manipulation that are keeping us at record highs and, on Friday, I asked "How Many Countries are Faking Economic Data?"  

I didn't mention the US because we've already had extensive discussion of how the US changed the rules on GDP calculations last year to add 3% to our GDP but NOW I need to mention the US's contribution to data manipulation because it turns out that a revision to the way Pensions are being accounted for has goosed Corporate profits by 6%, adding another $500Bn (3%) to our GDP!  

Even worse, it's retroactive (see chart above) and improves HISTORICAL EARNINGS as well!  This smoothes out the GDP charts and doesn't make it look like we did something in 2014 to pump it up – isn't that clever?  Not only does it pretty up the GDP and boost Corporate Earnings (so the S&P's p/e looks like 18.5 when it's well over 20), but it also fools investors into thinking that pension obligations at blue-chip companies are not as bad as they really are.  

No wonder the volume in the market is approaching zero – who can play in a game where they change the rules every few months (and surreptitiously, at that!)?  Even with the record amount of buybacks by US Corporations in 2013, GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) show earnings DROPPING 2.2% but, using the magic accounting allowed by our Government, earnings LOOKED up 4.6%.

As owners of the stocks in question, we LOVE it when earnings go up – even if they are faked but, as INVESTORS in the company, we need to be aware that there are only so many rule changes and so many buybacks and so many spending cuts a company can go through before it actually has to actually start selling more stuff to make more money.  That's why I've been saying lately that we may have now passed "peak profits" for corporations and that's not a good thing because never before have we been so leveraged into equities – NEVER:

Click to View

Dave Fry and I have been warning all year that the "rallies" have been coming on low volumes while the sell-offs are coming on stronger volumes as the Fund Managers are manipulating the markets while their Media Lackeys are convincing the Retail Suckers to take over holding the bag in what is essentially a financial game of hot potato.  As you can see from the above charts, margin debt (smart money) has been exiting since February and, as you can see from previous peaks – there's a 3-6 month lag before the market collapses.  July will be month 5.  

We'll see how Q2 earnings look but my big issue remains the Consumer who, by all indications, is tapped out.  Not us (top 10%) – we're doing great but the other 90%, who still represent 52% of the income in this country (but the GOP vows to "fix" that in 2016!) simply have no money to spend and Consumer Spending is 70% of our GDP (the real one). 

They don't do studies like this in the US (because it might make people angry) but, in the UK, they care about their people's Standard of Living and the numbers they have been showing since the Financial Crisis are shocking.  

The measure, calculated every year, includes enough to provide ordinary food, clothes, and leisure activities, as well as items judged necessary to survive in modern Britain, without extravagance.

Overall the study, compiled for the Joseph Rowntree Foundation by academics at the Centre for Research in Social Policy in Loughborough University, concludes that a single person with no children would need £16,284 a year to be able to get by and maintain a basic decent standard of living, up from £13,450 in 2008.

By contrast a couple with children, would now need to earn £20,287 each – or £40,574 to maintain a minimum standard.  In 2008 they would have needed just under £28,000 between them to get by to roughly the same standard.  That increase of 46 per cent compares with a rise of only nine per cent in average earnings in that time.

Not only is the US not very different than the UK but, with a much lower social safety net, conditions in the US are likely much worse.  We'll find out as companies begin reporting earnings in the next few weeks but it's hard to imagine a great deal of sales growth as the entire World remains in a Recession – albeit one that is being covered up by Central Bank machinations.  

We just got an adjusted Q1 GDP of -2.9% last week, not +2.5% as the chart above shows.  If the other developed countries are starting the year off with negative numbers – how likely is it that we're going to hit those goals?  

While we can keep dream-walking for quite some time (especially with all the drugs the Fed is giving us), there's always the danger that people will eventually wake up so keep one hand firmly on the exit door at all times.   On Friday we discussed a DXD hedge in the morning post and, for our Members, we had TZA (now $14.19) hedges as well and, as I've mentioned, we are VERY LIGHTLY INVESTED in our major portfolios.  

If the crash never comes, then we have plenty of cash to buy things with but, if it does – then we have plenty of cash to buy things with.  That's a win-win! 


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  1. Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:


    Monday: N/A

    Tuesday: N/A

    Wednesday: STZ, UNF

    Thursday: ISCA

    Friday: Market Holiday


    Economic Releases (6/30-7/4):



    8:45 am CT – Chicago PMI

    9:00 am CT – Pending Home Sales



    7:00 am CT – Treasury Secretary Lew speaks

    9:00 am CT – ISM Manufacturing PMI

    9:00 am CT – Construction spending

    9:00 am CT – Vehicle Sales (All Day Reporting)



    6:30 am CT – Challenger Job Cuts

    7:15 am CT – ADP Non-Farm Payroll

    9:00 am CT – Factory Orders

    9:30 am CT – Crude Oil Inventories

    10:00 am CT – FED Chairman Yellen Speaks



    7:30 am CT– Monthly Jobless Claims

    7:30 am CT –Trade Balance

    9:00 am CT – Unemployment Rate

    8:45 am CT– Final Services PMI

    9:00 am CT – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

    9:30 am CT– Natural Gas Inventories



    Market Holiday-No Data

  2. Oil Lines

    R3 – 107.04
    R2 – 106.61
    R1 – 106.18
    PP – 105.75
    S1 – 105.32
    S2 – 104.89
    S3 – 104.46

  3. Why are the super-rich complaining:

    If today’s corporate kvetchers are more concerned with the state of their egos than with the state of the nation, it’s in part because their own fortunes aren’t tied to those of the nation the way they once were. In the postwar years, American companies depended largely on American consumers. Globalization has changed that—foreign sales account for almost half the revenue of the S&P 500—as has the rise of financial services (where the most important clients are the wealthy and other corporations). The well-being of the American middle class just doesn’t matter as much to companies’ bottom lines. And there’s another change. Early in the past century, there was a true socialist movement in the United States, and in the postwar years the Soviet Union seemed to offer the possibility of a meaningful alternative to capitalism. Small wonder that the tycoons of those days were so eager to channel populist agitation into reform. Today, by contrast, corporate chieftains have little to fear, other than mildly higher taxes and the complaints of people who have read Thomas Piketty. Moguls complain about their feelings because that’s all anyone can really threaten.

  4. Well, Good Morning!  And this one picture says it all…..

  5. How is that allowed to keep on working:

    A SICAV is an open-ended collective investment scheme that is common throughout Western Europe, especially in Luxembourg, Switzerland, Italy, Spain, Belgium, Malta, France and the Czech Republic. In all of those countries SICAVs receive preferential tax treatment. In Spain, for example, investors must pool together a minimum of 2.4 million euros and pay only 1 percent tax on annual returns. Meanwhile, in banker-friendly Luxembourg – where the EU-sponsored SICAV just happens to be based – the funds are taxed at a measly 0.05 percent rate.

    Meyer is not the only Spanish politician to have invested in the mini tax haven of the SICAV. According to the financial daily El Confidencial, a total of 39 Members of the Spanish Parliament, MEPs, and government ministers signed up to the SICAV. They include Spain’s current finance minister, Cristobal Montoro, the man who over the past two years has hiked direct and indirect taxes on both workers and small businesses to confiscatory levels.

    Thanks to lax legislation and limp enforcement, SICAVs have effectively become mini-tax havens allowing many of the country’s best-heeled individuals and families to avoid paying almost any tax on their investment earnings. One way they do that is by not cashing in their dividends or selling their shares in the funds, since that would accrue taxes of 19 percent and 21 percent respectively. Instead, what they do is execute regular draw-downs on their capital investment. By withdrawing just part – rather than all – of their initial investment, they pay just 1 percent tax on their earnings.

    What’s more, by law each SICAV must have a minimum of 100 stockholders. Most funds avoid this rule, however, by naming a series of straw-man investors, commonly known as “mariachis,” so that each SICAV is effectively controlled by only one person or one family.

  6. Some thoughts about the bad GDP numbers:

    What happened in the last quarter was broadly consistent with the weakness of the recovery, just to give some evidence on that. In the previous eight recessions that the U.S. has had since World War II, you see strong recoveries after the recession ends, so that, say, three months after the recession ends, the economy is growing on average at about four and a half percent a year. That’s positive four and half percent growth on average. In this recession, after the recession ends in 2009, average growth has only been 2.3 percent–half the rate of improvement that we’ve seen in the eight previous recessions. So we could say that this massive one-quarter contraction was a blip, but it wasn’t just a blip, because it comes amid a very weak recovery that’s been going on now for five years.

  7. It is official, Teton Valley, Idaho is over July 4. The shot off the fireworks on June 28 at Huntsman's Springs. Details are totally un American.

  8. Morning. Does anyone know the procedure for downloading historical futures data from TOS into MS Excel 2013? Thanks

  9. CHL/phil – given the various concerns in China, do you see CHL at greater risk than, say, T ?

  10. Momo's are getting the quarter pump today

  11. Good Morning!

  12. Today, Tomorrow…..

  13. Good morning! 

    Good read by James Altucher – "How to be a Slave

    Chicago June PMI 62.2, down from 65 in May but that was expected.  Keep in mind my issue with PMI reports is they are forward-looking opinion surveys of Purchase Managers, who are guys with good jobs (top 10%) who aren't financial analysts or even likely to be involved in strategy so they are simply buying the BS spin of the MSM and regurgitating a happy outlook – which is why the Media hypes them so much.  On the whole, it's about as useful as a racing form at the track (also the opinions of "experts") to tell you which horse is going to win the race.  

    Once upon a time, what a purchasing manager planned to buy in the next 6 months mattered because they were ordering it today.  That's no longer the case with "just in time" manufacturing and shipping.  Another reason this indicator is becoming useless…

    Asia was generally up a bit but followed our BS close on Friday (and had their own window-dressing).  Europe is down about 0.2%, except Germany, who are up 0.25% (not sure why yet).  Germany's Retail Sales fell 0.6% in May (just out) vs. a 0.7% gain expected by leading economorons.  April was down 1.5%, so I guess we could say the decline is decelerating or maybe the good news is that the Bundesbank will finally loosen up and join the QE party?  

    • Euro Zone's PMI Won't Settle Nerves

      The euro zone has spent much of this year worrying about ultralow inflation while hoping that growth will pick up and save the day. The latest set of survey data will keep the region's policy makers feeling anxious.

    Cramer is in a suit telling everyone not to worry – that makes me worry!  

    Sad chart, Pharm.

    SICAV's/StJ – One of the many benefits of my retirement location!  

    CHL/Scott – While I do like them as a long-term investment more than T (the US doesn't have 300M more customers without phone service waiting in the wings), short-term they are going to be more volatile.  T is a utility play, it's nice and dull and not likely to grow or fall.  CHL has 760M customers and bills them an average of $136 each, T has 110M subscribers and bills them an average of $1,163 each – which one do you think has room for explosive growth? 

  14. At the open

    09:31 AM ET

    • Dow -0.21% to 16,816.50. S&P -0.07% to 1,959.60. Nasdaq +0.04% to 4,399.80.
    • Treasurys: 30-year +0.14%. 10-yr +0.05%. 5-yr +0.03%.
    • Commodities: Crude -0.14% to $105.60. Gold -0.43% to $1,314.30.
    • Currencies: Euro +0.08% vs. dollar. Yen -0.07%. Pound -0.1%.

  15. On the hour

    10:00 AM ET

    • Dow -0.21%.
    • 10-yr -0.04%.
    • Euro +0.1% vs. dollar.
    • Crude -0.09% to $105.65.
    • Gold -0.34% to $1,315.50.

  16. Chicago PMI

    09:46 AM ET

  17. KLA-Tencor boosted by B. Riley upgrade

    09:43 AM ET · KLAC

    • Citing a favorable valuation and improving foundry and logic orders, B. Riley has upgraded KLA-Tencor (KLAC +1.2%) to Buy. Its PT has been hiked by $12 to $82.
    • The upgrade comes shortly after Needham upped its PT by $10 to $80, citing checks that suggest Globalfoundries and Samsung are raising their investment in next-gen 20nm processes.
    • Needham also thinks demand for KLA’s process control equipment will benefit from “rising process control intensity at the leading-edge,” particularly for memory. KLA has argued its process control dominance will help it as production of mobile ICs from foundry and logic clients keeps growing rapidly.
    • Shares are within a hair’s breadth of a bubble high of $71.93, aided by improving orders and optimism about the effects of industry consolidation.

  18. S&P cuts Walter Energy to CCC+ from B- on unsustainable debt

    09:41 AM ET · WLT

    • Walter Energy (WLT -3.2%) opens sharply lower after S&P cuts its credit rating to CCC+ plus from B- with a negative outlook, citing “unsustainable” debt given the weak outlook for met coal prices and reduced production expectations for the coal company.
    • S&P also foresees very weak credit measures in 2014, with debt leverage above 20x and EBITDA interest coverage of less than 1x in 2014.

  19. Wells downgraded at Macquarie

    09:38 AM ET · WFC

    • The year’s stalwart performer among the big banks, Wells Fargo (WFC -0.6%) is cut to Underperform at Macquarie, the team citing the lender’s high relative valuation.
    • Wells Fargo is ahead nearly 16% YTD, while JPMorgan, Citigroup, and BofA are all in the red. Wells’ performance also wins out when compared to major regional lenders like U.S. Bancorp, PNC Financial, and BB&T.

  20. Darden Restaurants to use Red Lobster cash for debt buyback

    09:21 AM ET · DRI

    • Darden Restaurants (DRI) launches a tender offer for up to $600M worth of its debt.
    • The debt buyback is subject to the closing of the Red Lobster sale.
    • DRI -0.9% premarket

  21. GT Advanced launches restructuring as Apple production ramps

    09:19 AM ET · GTAT

    • GT Advanced (GTAT) will cut ~70 jobs and record $13.4M in charges ($1.8M cash) as part of an effort to realign its manufacturing, engineering, and supply chain resources. Current headcount is ~1,100.
    • GT plans to move most of its sapphire fabrication work to its new Mesa, AZ facility (producing sapphire for Apple, and rapidly expanding), and to “outsource more routine, non-proprietary engineering functions to third parties on an as needed basis.” The company also plans to discontinue its Kyropoulous (KY) sapphire growth program due to a limited market.
    • More details will be given on the Q2 CC, which is set for the morning of Aug. 5.
    • GTAT -0.9% premarket.

  22. Linn Energy to acquire Devon non-core U.S. properties for $2.3B

    09:12 AM ET · LINE

    • Linn Energy (LINE, LNCO) agrees to acquire U.S. oil and gas properties from Devon Energy (DVN) for $2.3B.
    • The assets currently produce ~275M cfe/day (~80% gas), with total proved reserves of 1.3T-1.5T cfe and total resource potential of ~3T cfe.
    • The asset package is comprised of ~900K net acres across the Rockies, Mid-Continent, east Texas, north Louisiana and south Texas regions with ~4,500 total wells; LINN says it has identified 1K-plus future drilling locations and ~600 recompletion opportunities.
    • LINN says the acquisition will be financed ultimately through the sale of its Granite Wash assets and other non-producing acreage in its portfolio.
    • DVN says the deal covers remaining U.S. assets it had targeted for divestiture, and that the sale of Canadian and U.S. non-core properties over the past few months has generated in $5B-plus in proceeds at an accretive multiple of nearly 7x 2013 EBITDA.
    • LINE +0.3%, DVN +0.4% premarket.

  23. Exxon reports fire, oil spill at Nigeria terminal

    08:58 AM ET · XOM

  24. U.S. firms take new Puerto Rico law to court

    08:40 AM ET · MBI

    • Puerto Rico lawmakers last week approved legislation allowing public corporations (such as the utility companies) to restructure their debt, and funds managed by Franklin Templeton and Oppenheimer have asked the U.S. District Court of Puerto Rico to block the move, arguing only Congress can create bankruptcy laws.
    • Puerto Rico’s move sent shudders through investors in its debt as well as through the investors of companies like MBIA (MBI) and Assured Guaranty (AGO) which insure the paper. MBIA slid 10% last week (it’s off another 6% this morning as a longtime bull throws in the towel) and Assured Guaranty 6.5%.
    • Government officials insist no restructuring is imminent and the island’s Government Development Bank says last week’s “Recovery Act” was designed to fill a gap in the existing bankruptcy laws and “ensure continuity of critical public services.”
    • Previously: MBIA and Assured slide on Puerto Rico reversal

  25. Caesars Entertainment subsidiary extends tender offer

    08:18 AM ET · CZR

    • Caesars Entertainment (CZR) announces that Caesars Entertainment Operating Company has extended its tender offer for certain debt securities.
    • The offer will now run until July 7.
    • The various asset swaps by Caesars has drawn the ire of some bondholders, including several hedge funds.

  26. Aereo suspends operations

    08:07 AM ET

    • Aereo says it will suspend operations following the Supreme Court ruling last week which will make it difficult for it to compete.
    • CEO Chet Kanojia says the company will evaluate different strategies before pushing forward in a new direction.

  27. Yahoo boosted by Piper Jaffray upgrade

    08:05 AM ET · YHOO

    • Yahoo’s (YHOO) stake in Alibaba is being undervalued, says analyst Gene Munster, boosting Yahoo to a Buy, with price target lifted to $43 from $37. Look for Yahoo to move higher, he says, as the Alibaba IPO gets nearer.
    • Shares +1.1% premarket

  28. Pending Home Sales surge in May

    10:01 AM ET

  29. Report: Anglo American may sell $4B worth of platinum mines

    07:59 AM ET · AAUKF

    • Anglo American (AAUKF, AAUKY) has put some of its historic South African platinum mines up for sale as part of a $4B (£2.35B) clearout led by CEO Mark Cutifani, the Sunday Times reports.
    • Said to be included in the sale are the company’s oldest and deepest shafts in the impoverished mining region of Rustenberg, South Africa, some of which have been in operation since the 1950s.
    • Cutifani has set a goal of improving Anglo’s return on capital to at least 15% by 2016 from ~8% currently, and he’ll consider disposing of any asset that pulls down the average, according to the report.

  30. Merck’s cancer therapy mAb under regulatory review in Europe

    07:29 AM ET · MRK

    • The European Medicines Agency accepts Merck’s (MRK) MAA for pembrolizumab, the firm’s investigational anti-PD-1 antibody, for the treatment of advanced melanoma. If approved, it will be the first anti-PD-1 therapy cleared for sale in Europe.
    • Pembrolizumab is a humanized monoclonal anti-PD-1 antibody designed to reactivate anti-tumor immunity. It blocks the PD-1 pathway by inhibiting the interaction of PD-1 on T cells with its ligands PD-L1 and PD-L2.
    • It is being evaluated across more than 30 types of cancers as a monotherapy and in combination. The company’s BLA is currently under priority review by the FDA with a PDUFA date of October 28, 2014. The agency designated it a Breakthrough Therapy for advanced melanoma.

  31. MannKind set for opening gap up

    07:07 AM ET · MNKD

    • Shares of MannKind (MNKD) are up 19% premarket on healthy volume as investors get ready for the first full day of trading after the FDA announced its approval of Afrezza on Friday. Shares initially sold off but recovered a good bit of the down move. The closing price was $10.00 out of a range of $8.20 – 11.11 on turnover of 39.7M shares (4x normal volume).

  32. Restaurant chains scramble to keep margins intact

    07:07 AM ET · CAKE

  33. Tobacco mega-merger back in focus

    06:51 AM ET · ITYBY

    • A move by Imperial Tobacco (ITYBY) to sell off 30% of its holdings in Compania de Distribucion Integral Logista Holdings SA could make it easier for tobacco giants Lorillard (LO) and Reynolds American (RAI) to merge.
    • Imperial Tobacco would sit with close to $800M in extra cash if it unloaded the piece in its Madrid unit.
    • Shares of both Lorillard and Reynolds are up over 20% since merger talk ramped up a few months ago.

  34. Oil futures fall as Iraqi supply fears decline

    04:54 AM ET · USO

    • Crude-oil futures fell in Asian trading hours today, due to waning concerns of Iraqi oil supply for the near term.
    • August Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange dropped, falling $0.29 to $113.01 a barrel. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in August traded at $105.45 a barrel at 4:52 GMT, down $0.29 in the Globex electronic session.
    • Brent futures are still up 3.4% so far in June, after hitting a nine-month high earlier this month.

  35. Argentina enters technical default

    03:38 AM ET · ARGT

    • Argentina will enter a state of technical default today, as the $832M payment given to holders of the country’s restructured bonds was declared illegal on Friday. The showdown continues as the New York judge presiding over the case insists that holdout creditors must be paid $1.5B before any other payments can be made.
    • Although this marks the second time in 15 years the country has entered technical default, Argentina will still have a 30-day grace period until it enters formal default. Negotiations will likely take place for the greater part of the month, to help prevent the country from being barred access to international markets.
    • ETFs: ARGT

  36. BNP Paribas board approves $8.9B settlement

    01:50 AM ET · BNPQF

    • The BNP Paribas (BNPQF) board has approved an $8.9B settlement, following the investigation of U.S. authoritites into $30B of transactions which avoided economic sanctions. More than a dozen employees are also expected to leave the bank as a result of the negotiations.
    • BNP is expected to plead guilty to the charge today, and announce the hefty settlement. With regards to the suspension on BNP’s U.S. dollar clearing service, it was reported that the bank has won a stay of execution, postponing it for six months.
    • Last week, BNP Paribas stated plans to cut its dividend and sell billions in bonds as a result of the record payout.

  37. Stunning opening weekend for 4th Transformers movie

    12:17 AM ET · IMAX

    • Transformers: Age of Extinction took in close to $100M at movie theaters in the U.S. and over $300M globally in a smashing opening weekend.
    • The film cost $165M to produce, according to Studio System News.
    • The Transformers franchise continues to mesmerize in China. Some early estimates have Transformers 4 setting an all-time opening weekend record of $90M.
    • The film took in close to $11M for screenings in the IMAX (IMAX) format over the three-day period.
    • Though critical reviews and crowdsourcing scores (17% at Rotten Tomatoes) for the latest Transformers installment were underwhelming, the giant profits derived for Paramount Pictures (VIA, VIAB) is expected to give some life to plans for a Transformers 5 movie.

  38. BP seeks return of millions in Gulf spill damage payments

    Sat, Jun 28 · BP

    • BP asked U.S. District Judge Barbier yesterday to make restitution of hundreds of millions of dollars in “erroneous” payments to Gulf coast businesses – plus interest and attorneys’ fees – under its multibillion-dollar oil spill settlement.
    • BP said “a vast number” of claimants were “unjustly enriched” before the court wrote its new policy in May that reversed accounting rules on how certain cash-based businesses are compensated for losses related to the 2010 Gulf of Mexico spill.
    • As examples, BP cited a seller of animal skins who was overpaid by $14M and a construction company hundreds of miles away from the Gulf who received $8.4M; letting these awards stand uncorrected “would violate basic principles of fairness and equity,” BP maintained.
    • Claimants’ lawyers said it is just another attempt by BP to back out of its commitments.

  39. Empire Resorts announces new casino project 90 miles from NYC

    09:05 AM ET · NYNY

    • Empire Resorts (NYNY) announces it has submitted an application to state regulators to develop a casino in Sullivan County, New York.
    • The proposed location would be only 90 miles from New York City and is situated on the site of Adelaar which is owned by EPR Properties (EPR).
    • Shares of Empire Resorts come off of a trading halt at 9:15 a.m. EST.

  40. Google roundup: Tango, Ara, virtual reality, Glass/Google+

    Fri, Jun 27 · GOOG

    • Google (GOOG) is working with LG to bring a tablet supporting Project Tango to market in 2015. Google adds Tango, which use 3D vision to track motion, create visual maps, and enable augmented reality apps, will support the Unreal and Unity game engines, and Qualcomm’s Vuforia AR platform.
    • Nvidia’s (NVDA) Tegra K1 processor (heavy on GPU power) will power the LG tablet. OmniVision (OVTI) should supply the sensors enabling 3D vision. Ahead of the LG launch, Google will provide developers with a $1,024 reference tablet to start building apps. (video)
    • Google managed to show a working prototype (of sorts) at I/O for Project Ara, which seeks to enable modular phones whose parts can be mixed and matched on the fly.
    • Two near-term challenges: Cutting the amount of space taken up by the parts that enable modularity, and building drivers that can support a wide array of 3rd-party modules. Google previously forecast Ara phones would arrive next January.
    • Though it’s no Oculus Rift, Google did hand out a cheap virtual reality headset prototype fittingly called Cardboard. The goal of Carboard, which has a companion app, is to get developers to start working on Android VR projects (and thus build a rival ecosystem to Oculus’).
    • While plenty of products were launched and updated at I/O, two frequently-hyped platforms, Glass and Google+, received scant attention. Google was reported in April to be narrowing Google+’s ambitions. Glass, which just got a small hardware update, is working through PR/image issues ahead of a full commercial launch.
    • Google I/O product coverage: I, II, III

  41. Biggest jump in pending home sales in four years

    10:12 AM ET · ITB

    • May’s NAR Pending Home Sales Index of 103.9 is up 6.1% from April. but 5.2% below the level of a year ago. The 6.1% sequential increase is the fastest gain since April 2010 when it jumped 9.6% ahead of the expiration of a tax credit program.
    • The NAR’s Larry Yun expects a quickening pace of sales in H2, but not enough to offset the sluggish first half of the year, with affordability and access to credit remaining key issues.
    • ITB +0.9%, XHB +0.8%
    • Full report

  42. Allergan updates investors this morning on three pipeline programs

    10:09 AM ET · AGN

    • Allergan (AGN -1.5%) holds a conference call this morning to update investors on three of its pipeline programs.
    • Anti-VEGF DARPin: Completed top-line analysis of a Phase 2 study of abicipar pegol in wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and reviewed with the FDA. The program will now proceed to a Phase 3 clinical trial. The primary objective in the Phase 2 was to determine the appropriate dose of abicipar pegol that would provide equal or better visual acuity improvement compared to Luncentis (ranibizumab) but require less frequent injections.
    • Bimatoprost Sustained Release Implant: Reviewed Phase 2 clinical trial data assessing it as a treatment for elevated intraocular pressure and glaucoma. Patients in the study received the implant in one eye and topical bimatoprost in the other eye. The data suggests that results with the implant are comparable to the topical version over 4 – 6 months.
    • Semprana (dihydroergotamine): CRL received from FDA pertaining to the specifications around content uniformity on the improved canister filling process and standards for device actuation. The company plans to meet with the agency as it addresses these issues. The next FDA action will not occur until probably late Q2 2015, however.
    • The FDA approved Ozurdex (dexamethasone intravitreal implant) for the treatment of diabetic macular edema (DME) in patients who have an artificial lens implant (pseudophakic) or who are scheduled for cataract surgery (phakic). Ozurdex is a sustained-release biodegradable steroid implant whose long-efficacy eliminates the need for monthly injections.

  43. Philips to merge subsidiaries

    03:55 AM ET · PHG

    • Philips (PHG) will merge its Lumileds LED components and Automotive lighting subsidiaries into one unit, as the company attempts to bring in more third-party capital.
    • “As a world-leading lighting components business, they will have increased flexibility to attract additional investors to accelerate growth,” says CEO Frans van Houten.
    • In 2013, the two divisions amassed more than $1.9B in combined sales. The merger is expected to take place in the first half of 2015, and will cost Philips around €30M in the second half of this year.

  44. Magnum Hunter owes 70x last year’s earnings but shares gain 135% Y/Y

    Fri, Jun 27 · MHR

    • Magnum Hunter Resources (MHR) is spending borrowed money faster than it comes in, with questions about its future production and potential governance issues, yet lenders, investors and analysts love it: Welcome to the U.S. shale boom.
    • According to a Bloomberg profile, MHR owes $891M, ~70x its EBITDA in the past year vs. the industry average of 4.3x, and its net loss has soared 32-fold since 2008 while revenues have climbed 17-fold, yet investors have driven its shares up 135% in the past year.
    • Out of five wells MHR drilled in an undeveloped corner of the Utica shale formation in Ohio and West Virginia, three can’t produce because they don’t have pipeline hookups but one was a gusher, pumping 32.5M cf/day of natural gas – a “game-changer” if MHR can replicate it.
    • MHR considers the Utica potentially the best shale play in the U.S.: “We’ll either drill it ourselves or we’ll be a prime takeover target for somebody,” Chairman/CEO Gary Evans tells Bloomberg.

  45. BlackRock still faces competition as ETF business nears $1T

    06:40 AM ET · BLK

    • With more than $998B in its iShares business, BlackRock (BLK) is on target to topple its upcoming $1T mark, although the company still faces market competition from rivals Vanguard and State Street (STT). The two offer investor-friendly and low-cost investing, attracting a large part of the market segment.
    • Vanguard secured 43% of the new money in the ETF market this year, pulling in $30.3B, compared to Blackrock’s 35% share, which received $24.7B.
    • Blackrock is still highly unlikely to be surpassed anytime soon due to its sheer size, although new market share percentage is beginning to favor rivals. The asset manager tripled the size of its iShares business in the last five years, after purchasing it from Barclay’s.

  46. Analysis: International Paper poised for major rally

    10:11 AM ET · IP

    • Shares of International Paper (IP +1.3%) are lively after Barron’s suggests the company could funnel some of its cash to dividends and buybacks with its debt load in decent order.
    • Improving fundamentals and a low valuation have brought several investment firms to the International Paper bandwagon of late.
    • If the Barron’s take is spot on, today’s move is just the beginning of a major rally in International Paper.

  47. Micron higher on CS Focus List addition, Samsung DRAM report

    10:05 AM ET · MU

    • Three weeks after hiking its Micron (MU +3.5%) PT to $50, Credit Suisse is planting itself even more firmly on an increasingly crowded bandwagon by adding the memory giant to its Focus List.
    • CS praises a valuation of 9.8x EPS, and sees new products and margin expansion driving future EPS growth.
    • Separately, Taiwan’s Economic Daily News reports Samsung (SSNLF, SSNGY) has told clients it plans to raise DRAM contract prices by 10% starting in July.
    • The paper also states spot prices for mainstay 4Gb DDR3 DRAM chips (widely used in PCs) could reach $4.60 in Q3. DRAMeXchange showed an average Friday price of $4.255, following a Q2 gain of nearly 20%.
    • Previous: Micron jumps post-earnings

  48. Phil,

    RYN – They are a pure play in the timber and real estate now.  I expect these business are both under pressure but might come into their own when/if the economy picks up or inflation gains momentum. Do you have any thoughts on RYN after the divestiture of their performance materials business?

  49. Monday’s economic calendar

    12:00 AM ET

  50. RYN/Sibe – They spun off part of the company so there's nothing to "come back" from – it's not the same company it was earlier in the chart.  In fact, the CEO and most of the board went to the new company, RYAM, which I couldn't possibly say is a good deal or not without a lot more study.  There was nothing good about their last earnings report and it was only the spin-off that got people to start buying the stock since May.  CZR had a similar run into the split – then down and down.  I'd say stay away until at least you can see the individual earnings reports.  

  51. Yahoo’s (YHOO) stake in Alibaba is being undervalued, says analyst Gene Munster, boosting Yahoo to a Buy, with price target lifted to $43 from $37.

    If this is an accurate analysis, SFTBY might be worth a look.

  52. Thanks Phil.

  53. Phil /Pharm /GW pharma: what do you guys know about this ? my brother has epilepsy and i have been following the use of medical cannabis to treat untreatable forms of epilepsy in children. so while i'm chaseing this, does it look like an investment to anyone ?



  54. Phil /Pharm /GW pharma: oops forgot the main link related to inversment on this thing.


  55. RGR – Jan15 45.5 puts are offering a nice premium at 1.50, yielding a 24.5% return on $610 regular margin (44% annualized) and at worst case, you are into this dividend payer at at 23% discount giving you a 4.9% yield on current dividend.

  56. Phil

    What do you think of this company for a long term , low cost trade ?




    WidePoint Corp. (WYY)

     -NYSE MKT ? Follow

    1.82   0.00(0.19%)

  57. CRIS/Pharm – sticking with them through this management change?

  58. Hey all – new to PSW & really appreciating it thus far………

    GS – quick question – long 500shs, which feels too large right now. Considering selling Jan16 170s against 400 for 14.15 & work around that over next couple months. That seem reasonable? Tx

  59. Just to keep things in perspective for TSLA, the stock was 201 before earnings last qtr, went down after earnings to 178 and now before earnings it's 242.  If earnings are good, I can't see it going to 300, the ceiling has to be close at this level.  I'm just waiting to write call before earnings around 15-20% higher than where they are at 3:50p that day.

  60. Scott – RGR has always been good to me.  For ever $500 I make, I tend to buy a real RGR (stashing the profit in a asset that will appreciate!)

  61. Phil; // END
    Any opinions – have one foot in – tempted to DD at all time low.

  62. YHOO/Albo – Why not just buy YHOO?  YHOO is $35Bn and owns 22% of AliB while SFTBY is $91Bn and owns 33% of AliB, so you get a lot more bang for your buck with YHOO, whose forward p/e is only 19, than SFTBY, whose forward p/e is about 17 – so not all that significant.  Of course, more significantly is the potential impact of (guessing) $50Bn worth of AliB on a $35Bn company!  

    So we don't even have to go crazy if we want to play the "YHOO is undervalued" game.  The Jan $38/45 bull call spread is $1.60 on the $8 spread with 400% upside if YHOO gains 28%.  I think that's worth $800 for 5 shares in the $25KP (stop at $400) and $4,800 for 30 in the STP with a stop at $2,400.

    You're welcome Sibe.  

    GWPH/Micro – Well, you're a little late to the party on them.  Not only are they already a $1.8Bn company but up 100% since April on plenty of good press.  I don't think it matters whether it works or not, companies in this space will make a fortune as a new brand of snake oil is available and, best of all, not much R&D cost (people have been testing it for free for years!).  If you find some US companies that are new and going down the same path (hard to patent herbal meds, especially HERBal ones), then I'd like it a lot more.  This one was a great find last year at 1/10th the price, not now.  

    Meanwhile, $44M (not Bn) in sales and no income at all.  Plenty of cash and no debt means they are fine but it will take them over 1,000 years to return your investment at this stage.  

    RGR/Scott – One day, there will be regulations.  One day…    Meanwhile, nothing wrong with RGR at the moment, very solid as they re-test lows at $58.

    Wow, Supreme Court now says Companies can refuse to pay for contraception for their employees, even under current health care law.  Companies have just been granted religious rights!  MADNESS!!!

    Good chart

    Morgan Stanley Earnings Revisions

    It's just an endless cycle of BS where, in the middle of the year (now) they tell you next year will be 10-15% higher but then THIS year finishes 5% below current expectations and next year falls 5-10% but, because this year falls, it still looks "better" than where we finish and then people begin telling you "but next year will be a big improvement".  

    Some of the people ALL of the time….

    WYY/QC – It's a penny stock, essentially – I don't pay much attention and there are thousands of "Cloud", "IT Service", "Security", blah blah blah companies – who can keep track?  These particular guys have been running a roll-up, which I do approve of – but I'm not seeing them execute the growth off that plan as I think they are rushing things a bit (pressure of having a public company too early).  They don't have any cash and they'll be forced to borrow or dilute soon – I'd wait for that to happen and maybe you'll get in under $1, which is more worth a gamble. 

    CNBC featuring Barbeque sauce designed by Watson.  Let's see how many humans that thing can put out of work….  You guys forget this stuff because it takes a long time to play out but Watson will leap IBM past AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, etc to be the #1 company in a few years.  Figure there are 50M Customer Service Reps in the World and figure they make an average of $10,000 a year (assuming most in Asia) and figure Watson can replace half of them for $250 a month (saving money, office space, insurance, etc).  That's 25M x $250 x 12 for IBM = $75Bn on that function alone!  

    Now think of all the fast food and restaurant order people and secretaries etc.  IBM's current revenue is "just" $100Bn, this will all be incremental and using stuff they already paid for.  

    IBM is on our Buy List but not in our Portfolio yet as I was hoping they'd have a weak Q2 and go down a bit but I'm nervous my theory on Watson will gain traction and send IBM back up so let's add 5 short 2016 $160 puts at $9.40 to the LTP and, if IBM goes lower, we'll be happy to sell 10 more and add a bull call spread.  

  63. SCOTUS/Phil – What's with the surprise? This is America, where corporations don't have to do anything they don't want to/get to do everything they do want to. Someday, when I grow up, I'd like to be a Corporation!

  64. Welcome Mckeojh!  I'm not a huge fan of GS.  They may get fined and, even if they don't, their model is under scrutiny and the Fed is not, relatively, going to be handing out as much Free Money as they have been to the IBanks. So I'd stake the stock off the table as it only pays a $2.20 dividend for you to tie up $167 and, if you still want to be in them, you can sell 2016 $140 puts for $6.60 and buy the $155/180 bull call spread for $12.75 and then you are net $6.15 on the $25 spread and the worst thing that can happen to you is you get zero'd out on the spread (though you can stop out long before that happens) and get reassigned the stock at net $146.15, saving you $20 of the dip.  Meanwhile, you free up over 90% of your cash and you still have all of the upside of the stock from $161.15 to $180.  If they go over $180, you can always add another long layer.  

    END/Wombat – What is with these penny stocks?  My opinion is stay miles away from these independent oil and gas plays unless you are an industry expert with inside knowledge.  Do you have any idea how many companies in this space raise capital, go public and fail? These guys have been in a steady downward spiral since they went public and hit $40 in 2002 and now they are $1.37 but THIS is the bottom?  What I really hate about this particular company is that they lose $100M a year (2x the company's market cap) but the CEO takes a $1.8M salary.  When companies have been in business for 10 years but still over half their "news" comes from the PR Newswires – stay very far away!  

    LOL Scott – I agree, we should all aspire to be corporations so we can stop paying taxes, get government handouts (without it being called welfare) and, if we decide to kill or maim people – it's only a fine!  blush

  65. thanks Phil – it was just a flyer //

  66. Flyer/Wombat – Like this:

    Speaking of crashes – Dollar down to 79.85, down half a point from last week and being used as last-ditch effort to prop up indexes.  Oil $105.20, gold $1,320, silver $20.95, copper $3.20, nat gas $4.48 and gasoline $3.045.  Gasoline (/RB) may actually be a good long down here with a stop at $3.042.

  67. CRIS – no, sticking with them.  Roche filed an IND for IPF….humm…very very hot area.

  68. Oil taking a nice dive – $104.70 now.  

  69. Interesting allegations against Goldman.

  70. GS/Albo – Prosecutors want to get a few wins under their belt before they go after GS and JPM.  

    Check out this GOP girl from LA making Global Warming (is a hoax) the centerpiece of her campaign for Congress:

  71. TSLA Jan15 $250/225 Bear PUT spread $7 

    sorry Phil – couldn't resist

  72. LOL, this girl is my new Bachman!  This is the main quote from her own web site:

    How can you not love that?  She even answers all her fan tweets (only a couple so far).  

    Libs criticize me bc I am not a scientist: "you're a politician, what do you know about global warming" To that I have two words: AL GORE

    And, amazingly:

    BREAKING NEWS: State Rep. Lenar Whitney leads former Governor Edwin Edwards 53%-47% in a recent Glascock Poll for Congress in LA-06

    And, an award for using quotes she clearly doesn't understand goes to:

    Claims that cant be tested, assertions immune to disproof are veridically worthless whatever value they may have in inspiring us -Carl Sagan

    This is the problem with showing Cosmos on Fox – it confuses the Conservatives!  cheeky

    TSLA/Wombat – The third rail of the stock market.  

  73. Politics – how can you not love LA politics? Although the most fun was the preliminaries for governor a while back, that included Pink against Arnold.

  74. Phil // Theta
    Last week when we were talking about hedging you mentioned that you should also check your Theta. I have it set up but can you say more about how to gauge/ read it ///

    thanks >>>

  75. Hey Phil, another question for you.

    I bought some Oct $25 SCO Calls at $1.50 last week.  I'm currently trying to cover with the sale of $28 Oct Calls for $0.65.  

    As a general rule of thumb, when do you decide, while constructing a BCS, to cover the position?  Is it roughly always ASAP or do you sometimes wait to see the movements to get a better fill on the short?

    QUIK – Making a nice recovery from Friday's late day selloff of 7.4 million shares caused by the Russell re-balancing.  Would be a buyer here, but reluctant to add to an already large position due the pre-announced bad quarter they are in now.  They report on July 30.  Hopefully, there will be some announcements to offset the down quarter

  77. FU TSLA!!!! 

    FU Window Dressing!!!

  78. hahahahahahhahaaa

    thanks jabo.

  79. damn – i went long oil during the drop at 104.90. 

    had my stop at 104.70

    low was 104.66

    now it's flying high — that is a little frustrating.. just have to laugh i guess

  80. Phil // DIS
    Butterfly question. DIS is front month July. Pretty obvious which one to roll – why would we wait to roll out the $82.5 short calls ?

  81. Pink/Snow – The rock singer?  I must have missed that one.  

    Theta/Wombat – I mean as in make sure the time decay of the long position is advantageous to the short position.  It's not just the relative time but the amount divided by the time that matters.  

    When/JPH –  When the underlying makes a move that exceeds your expectations.  That's a good time to cover.  Good call on going for the cover on that dip.  

    QUIK/Albo – Not much of a pullback Friday compared to May.  Crazy stock. 

    China/Rustle – So he FINALLY gets his new car and smashes the window to protest the hassle of waiting for the car?  As to the mall story – that's why we don't have 7-story malls in the US – it would be raining kids and husbands if we did!  

    Gasoline coming along nicely now – $3.0515.

    DIS/Wombat – Because the short calls now offer downside protection into earnings.  DIS was at $85.86 just 3 weeks ago and then fell to $81.80.  We didn't roll 3 weeks ago and we're not rolling now because the VALUE of DIS hasn't changed – just the price.  

    It's only been this high for 4 hours, what exactly is your time-frame for patience?  

  82. Phil // DIS
    Come on. Thats was a totally legitimate question. I didn't know they had earnings. 
    But to answer the question abstractly, when would you pull / roll the front months loser out ?

  83. Pharm,

    Added more ISCO at 11, more at .075?

  84. SCOTUS / Phil – I think that Ginsburg has it right when she dissented:

    "In a decision of startling breadth, the Court holds that commercial enterprises, including corporations, along with partnerships and sole proprietorships, can opt out of any law (saving only tax laws) they judge incompatible with their sincerely held religious beliefs," she wrote. "The Court's determination that RFRA extends to for-profit corporations is bound to have untoward effects. Although the Court attempts to cabin its language to closely held corporations, its logic extends to corporations of any size, public or private."

  85. So, if a corporation is opposed to blood transfusions, on religious grounds ???? Adds a whole new layer to a job hunt.

  86. GM halted, more govt money please!!!!!!!!!!!!

  87. Phil: MADNESS…Glad to see that the Supreme Court upheld a owner's right to abide by their moral convictions. The federal government as well as state governments are seeing themselves as gods which is against the biblical values upon which this country was founded. 

  88. Phil // Theta
    So, I understand this conceptually. Not sure how to apply it. Would make a good webinar.

    Theta/Wombat – I mean as in make sure the time decay of the long position is advantageous to the short position.  It's not just the relative time but the amount divided by the time that matters.

    StJ // SCOTUS
    wow. Talk about a slippery slope. Don't they know that corporations have entire floors of people hired exclusively to exploit loopholes in things exactly like this. Well, I guess they do. : >

  89. ISCO… no not yet….

  90. Raining in Malls/Phil – um… are you implying it is really so bad to be married or have a mother in the USA?!

  91. In defense of TSLA, they might be 1/2 the market cap of GM and GM sells over 11mm vehicles, but they are recalling 11mm vehicles and settling death lawsuits.  Do I take the chance of a car that will burst into flames at any point or GM.

  92. F/Phil – back up to their apparent nosebleed zone. Do you see that lasting past today's close? cover your longs? Sell some calls? buy some puts?  

  93. Rustle.. NEITHER!

  94. The fear in all this should be the more radical religious belief the greater the incidence of violence. The US is in many ways doing exactly what the extremists do and like them believe they are more right, know better, and god is on their side. Violence in America on the rise? THINK!

  95. IRBT:

    I'm up a good healthy amount in IRBT trade so decided to kick some of the profit back into the economy by buying Rooba 880 for my wife's birthday. I talked with her about it a couple of months ago and she was tickled by the idea.

    Our very first robot!

  96. JPM ex-dvd  date  is tomorrow, Jul 1.  dividend is 40c. Short calls with premium < .40 may be assigned.

  97. DIS/Wombat – Well, for future reference, DIS does have earnings – as do many other companies.  angel  As to abstractions, we roll when we think there is no way the stock is coming back to our target, which means the VALUE of the company has changed.  So, my question to you is, what happened to DIS over the last month that makes them worth 5% more ($7Bn) than they were?  They went up with all the broadcasters on the Aero news but broadcasting is a small part (20%) of DIS's overall revenues (but you know that since you own the stock and have done your research, of course), so the move is probably a bit overdone.  

    SCOTUS/StJ – Well I'm registering PSW as a Christian Scientist as we don't believe in any medical care at all.  We also practice whatever religion objects to war the most, so I can cut out half my tax spending there as well.  Oh, and we also practice Accountancy – we don't believe in Deficits – so we can't fund those either and, in fact, need a refund of what we've paid.  Idiocy…

    Theta/Wombat – No, it would make a terrible webinar because it's terribly boring.  Go to the New Members Guide and follow links to options training (like this one).  There's plenty of places there where they teach the greeks.  

    Malls/Scott – No but I'm saying I can relate to the guy's shoe comments.  With 3 girls in the house we are getting to Imelda Marcos-like levels of shoes.  I went through my entire childhood with one pair of sneakers, one pair of shoes and one pair of boots.  Not because I was poor but because I found a pair I liked, so I wore them all the time.  Now that I'm an adult I also have a pair of Crocs.  Girls are a totally different species…  

    GM/Rustle – You are behind – another 7.6M announced today:

    GM Adds 7.6 Million Vehicles to U.S. Recallat The Wall Street Journal(Mon 2:59PM EDT)

    Seems to me like they have to recall all their cars and they are spacing it out so it sound less completely horrific than it actually is.  

    F/Scott – Depends why you are in them.  As a long-term hold, I like them but of course they may pull back a bit.  I hate buying puts to cover, you are guaranteeing you will lose money – you just don't know on which side.  Selling calls is good but the low VIX makes that kind of pointless so why not just cash out and come back in when they pull back and, if they never pull back – that will make GM look relatively cheap.  

    TM really took off since our bottom call.  

    Obama talking about immigration reform.  I say they should have a special show of America's Got Talent with no immigrants or children of immigrants and see who's left.  I was noticing so many of those people are 1st or 2nd generation Americans.  Immigrants in this country should take an organized day off work – maybe wake some of these idiots up. 

    Congrats Jbur – Just let us know when it rises up and overthrows you…

  98. Roomba – cats don't stop the mighty Roomba! ;-)

  99. Dollar/Phil – just the beginning of a new slide that will continue down? or just manipulation for today that will pop up again tomorrow?

  100. Jbur, I got my wife vinyl siding so she wouldn't have to paint the house any more…….but hey, that's just the kind of guy I am. 

  101. GWph- I gave you this winner @85 & woo-hoo I bought the 90 calls & it is a very good day. Anyways, it does not make any difference what this company makes or doesn't as far as earnings-its what people "perceive" as a winner that counts. It was upgraded today with a price target of $147, my guess is it goes higher. It does treat seizures & epilepsy & works.

  102. jr-mints:   

    You are indeed a gentleman and a scholar.

  103. jbur, how are you doing with the futures trades?  

  104. We brought our 12 Buick Enclave in for its oil change & auto butler & they fixed all the recalls for it that we did not know about. They had said there was one, but didn't detail what it was-they fixed three items! Amazing.

  105. TASR – I think cops are giving up on this and just going with regular old "shoot anybody anytime for any reason."

  106. jr-mints:  I am still following along and haven't place any live trades yet.

    I have been having a lot of fun and success trading TNA using options on an intra-day basis. So, with the large bid-ask spread and cost of options, I thought moving into the futures market seemed like the next logical move because it is even more liquid and less in transaction costs.

    Also, I like the idea of being able to use the futures to hedge before the cash market opens if needed.  And, needless to say, we have a great leader and  teacher who will help guide along the way.

  107. Cats/Scott – That's pretty impressive.  

    Dollar/Scott – Manipulation to boost the market, I think.  Could be a bit of Euro strength from electing hawkish Junker. 

    GWPH/Pirate – True but I just can't get comfortable with those kind of nosebleed valuations.  

    Dog/Scott – Oh my God, that's terrible.  What is wrong with those people?  

    Futures/Jbur – RUT (/TF) getting attractive on the short side at 1,190 with 1,200 a very strong backstop.  Still, it's a crazy low-volume week, hard to trade.  

    CNBC can't get a green day out of the Dow so they switch to the monthly charts – amazing!  

  108. Window dressing over.  Will the real stock market please stand up ?

  109. If the Dollar move were real, I wouldn't think /NKD would be holding up so well (15,200) though they like being weak against the Euro too, so maybe…

    Gold popped to $1,330 and silver $21.15 – they're happy with a weak Dollar.  Oil ending at $105.43.  

    Well, that was a dull way to start a short week…

  110. Jbur, I have done some futures trading but I'm inconsistent.  I'll have several nice gains and then give it all back.  Phil is right when he says it takes a lot of practice.  I like the low transaction costs as well.  

  111. Window dressing may be over but now everyone is on vacation so I don't expect too much action in either direction until July 7th.

    Not too much going on in the World overall.  Our Futures are off about 0.2% but the volume is so stupidly low (see article above) that it's all meaningless.  As I said last week – this is a good time to take a vacation through July 7th.  

    Keep this in mind next year when you wonder when is a good time to take a vacation. 

  112. Hey Phil – How about we come up with a PSW "Scan" that we look at weekly to pick out some stocks that might be good buys?  Get some new candidates on the radar?  We could start with things like market cap, p/e, industries to eliminate, Above/below M/A's, etc,  IV level (to estimate the juice in selling puts), 

    How about you think up a list of criteria and one of us could use some software to get the list together?  

  113. Who was it that gave us DRWI? Wombat? If so thanks, it is doing great. BTW is there a seminar tomorrow? From the sound of it, no.

  114. ya, Phil is going to go over Theta and how you apply it to your portfolio.
    Tune in !

  115. Phil // DIS
    But that makes no sense. Yes, I wasn't aware of earnings – and I wasn't aware even of the move today ; I was simply looking at the trade with time left and the amount at risk/gain.
    The July $80 puts are up +96 %, and the $82.5 calls are down -100% – why wouldn't we take the cash and roll and forget about earnings – the best would come of it is that they would beat and we collect another $42 or they miss and we make 50% on one leg and 5% on the other.
    Not following your logic.

  116. Phil / Wombat / DIS

    I just want to clear that I think DIS earnings are post expiration on August 5th. I don’t think it changes Phil position since from here to July 18th we can have a correction. What I think I’m going to do is buy back the short puts for $0.07 and not risk those profits.

  117. The surgeon who stopped my bleeding recently has decided to retire. This is a major problem as the good guys retire or as I believe give up as the business is un-sustainable. This is starting to un-nerve me.  

  118. Your a hero, God bless Dr. Richards!

  119. For engineering fans, this looks pretty good:

    Toyota recently showed a prototype engine that does just that. It's called the Free Piston Engine Linear Generator (FPEG). "Free" refers to the fact that the piston isn't attached to a crankshaft; instead, as the piston is forced downward during its power stroke, it passes through windings in the cylinder to generate a burst of three-phase AC electricity. The FPEG operates like a two-stroke engine but adds direct gasoline injection and electrically operated valves. It can also be run like a diesel, using compression rather than a spark plug to ignite its fuel mixture.

    Toyota says this mechanically simple engine achieves a claimed thermal-efficiency rating of 42 percent in continuous use. Only the best, most complicated, and most expensive of today's gas engines can come close to that number, and only in specific circumstances. Even better, a two-cylinder FPEG is inherently balanced and would measure roughly 8 inches around and 2 feet long. An engine of that size and type could generate 15 hp, enough to move a compact electric vehicle at highway speed after its main drive battery has been depleted. That's the future.

  120. Thanks STJ- That  Toyota engine could be the ticket . I remember the Chrysler turbine cars in the 60's . I think the potential danger of the turbine exploding into pieces doomed them.

  121. Nikkei with a big pop this evening – up about 200 points.  

    Looks like China had good manufacturing numbers.  Still, bad news is being ignored:

    The Tankan index of confidence among large manufacturers fell to 12 in June from 17 in March as the government raised sales taxes. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast a level of 15.

    “I don’t think the Tankan will disappoint the market much because investors believe Japan will be fine with the tax-increase impact unless something goes wrong overseas,” said Masaru Hamasaki, a senior strategist at Tokyo-based Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management Co., which manages about 13.4 trillion yen ($132 billion) in assets. “We don’t need to worry much because the U.S. and China are doing OK.”

    I love that.  I used to point that out in 2007 – everybody thinks everyone else is doing well because, even though they know their own economy sucks – they buy the BS from overseas.  

    Scan/Burr – It's not really my process as I'm generally news driven and that causes me to look at a stock or a sector but I do look for underperformers that are low in their channel for not particularly good reasons.  If you can scan for that – great!  Maybe stocks that are trailing their sectors over the past 30 or 90 days but then you have to apply those other filters to the stocks – otherwise you get a lot of junk.  

    Also, what you can't get off a scan is whether or not the option pricing is a good deal for the kind of spread that would take advantage of the predicted path for the next 30, 90 and 360 days – even when I do find stocks I like, 9 out of 10 fail that test.  If I don't have a pretty firm idea of what the stock will be doing in the future – why would I try to guess what it will do now?

    DRWI/Pirate – Albo had a bad ride down last year but, as he reported on them getting cheaper and cheaper, other people got interested in getting in.  Bert was in even earlier but I think he wisely got out on a run up and came back in when they got cheap again.

    Yes, there is a Webinar tomorrow.  

    Theta/Wombat – Fly me and the kids out there this summer and I'll do a special seminar for you!  

    DIS/Wombat – That's because you don't value PROTECTION in your positions.  I don't think DIS will stay this high so I am still using the July $82.50 calls as downside protection.  Well, not really protection as the longs are neutral but I think DIS pulls back from $86, which is up from $82 so 5% up and a 1% pullback to $85.20 is a weak retrace and $84.40 would be a strong pullback and we'll see what holds if we're PATIENT!!!  Feel free to roll, I'm not going to argue the merits of it – I prefer to WAIT PATIENTLY until I have more information.  My "logic" is that I have 18 more months to roll and I have no reason to rush any particular one.  

    Also, the position is small enough that we can easily DD if we have to – so no reason at all to worry 

    DIS/Akad – I know earnings are after expiration, that's why I expect that, no matter where DIS finishes in 3 weeks, that we'll have good premium to roll to.  At the moment, the July $82.50s are $3.50 and the $80 puts are .09 so $3.59 and we sold them for $4.35 so we're up 0.76 so far and, if we get closer to $82.50 over the next 3 weeks, we'll make more.  This is not complicated people!!!  

    Meanwhile, the Aug $82.50 calls are $4.40 and the $82.50 puts are $1.08 so that's $5.48 to roll too, which is ANOTHER $2 more than the combo is now WHEN WE DECIDE TO ROLL.  As I said last week when we were having the exact same discussion (which is why I hate Butterfly Portfolios) the long position is $46.91 and, if we make $1 a month for 18 months that's $18 or 38%, which is ALL I am trying to do so why do people insist we mess around with these things when they are working just fine as they are?  

    You are NOT going to improve your position by moving things around all the time.  This I know from my own 10,000 hours of experience but, if you don't want to believe me – then feel free to do it yourself and let me know how it goes.  In reality, over the long haul, stocks go up AND down and if you keep a path aimed for the middle (and you're not too wrong in your target), it will dance around your goal and sometimes the puts win and sometimes the call wins but, as long as I make $1 a month – I WIN!!!

    If we accidentally happen to get a finish right on our target and make $4 in one month, that's a bonus but the point of these portfolios is to NOT have to constantly monitor them AND make consistent 20%+ annual returns without too much risk.  

    And no, I would not buy back the short puts because they are a mile out of the money so I'm fairly certain I'll get my 0.07 and, as I've said on many occasions, 0.07 per month for a year is 0.84 is $840 which is 1.7% of $46,910 which is 10% of your expected annual gains tossed out the window because you can't BE PATIENT!!!   Is that really worth it?  Do that on both sides each month and you are burning 3.4% of your potential profits (not to mention the additional trading fees you generate).  

    That sucks Shadow, is he able to recommend someone else?  

    Big Chart – Dow breaking down a bit.  If we consider the likelihood that the last week was a prop job, then we probably should be testing that -5% line at 16,700 and the NYSE is stubbornly failing 11,000 while the RUT can't get 1,200 back.  This can turn technically ugly in short order.  

    Cool engine, StJ. 

    Hey, I just learned where the name "Starbucks" came from!

  122. Phil // Theta 
    You fly coach ?

  123. Phil

    The best doctors seem to disappear. I sent a few others to him because he was also a super nice guy.

  124. From Bloomberg, Jul 1, 2014, 4:45:07 AM

    European stocks climbed, after
    gaining for a fourth quarter, with commodity producers and banks
    rallying, while data showed euro-area manufacturing expanded for
    a 12th month. U.S. index futures and Asian shares also rose.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  125. From Bloomberg, Jul 1, 2014, 4:48:39 AM

    June 27 (Bloomberg) — Former Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Andrew Sentance talks about the possible timing of an interest rate increase.
    He speaks with Guy Johnson and Olivia Sterns on Bloomberg Television’s “The Pulse.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    U.K. manufacturing growth unexpectedly accelerated to the fastest pace in seven months as demand surged, adding to signs of a broadening recovery.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  126. From Bloomberg, Jul 1, 2014, 5:07:55 AM

    A visitor writes on a documents as a job center employee looks on while at a service counter inside a job center in Hamburg. The number of people out of work rose a seasonally adjusted 9,000 to 2.916 million in June, the Nuremberg-based Federal Labor Agency said today. Photographer: Krisztian Bocsi/Bloomberg

    German unemployment unexpectedly increased for a second month amid signs of a slowdown in Europe’s largest economy.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  127. From Bloomberg, Jul 1, 2014, 5:00:00 AM

    The euro-area unemployment rate was unchanged in May as the currency bloc struggled to shake off the legacy of the debt crisis.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  128. From Bloomberg, Jul 1, 2014, 4:35:20 AM

    July 1 (Bloomberg) — Takuji Okubo, chief economist at Japan Macro Advisors in Tokyo, talks about the nation’s economy.
    Sentiment among large Japanese manufacturers deteriorated more than forecast following an April
    sales-tax hike, increasing the challenge for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in stoking a rebound. Okubo speaks with Angie Lau on Bloomberg Television’s “First Up.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Japanese companies increased their
    investment plans more than forecast even as a sales-tax hike
    dented sentiment, potentially aiding Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s
    effort to stoke an economic recovery.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  129. From Bloomberg, Jul 1, 2014, 1:27:39 AM

    June 30 (Bloomberg) — Sean Callow, a senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Sydney, talks about the British pound and Australian dollar, and investment strategy.
    Callow also talks about the New Zealand dollar, yen and yuan. He speaks with Angie Lau on Bloomberg Television’s “First Up.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    The Reserve Bank of Australia kept
    its benchmark cash rate at a record low as an elevated currency
    combines with government cutbacks and a slowdown in mining
    investment to constrain growth.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  130. From Bloomberg, Jul 1, 2014, 4:16:23 AM

    An Indian motorcyclist drives through flooded streets following a heavy downpour in Agartala, the capital of northeastern state of Tripura on June 11, 2014. Photographer: Arindam Dey/AFP/Getty Images)

    India, the world’s second-biggest
    rice, sugar and cotton grower, recorded the lowest June rainfall
    since 2009 amid predictions for an El Nino that previously
    caused droughts and cut crop output, the state forecaster said.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  131. From Bloomberg, Jul 1, 2014, 4:00:00 AM

    Manufacturing grew at the fastest pace since 2007 in Spain, while contracting for a second month in France. Photographer: Balint Porneczi/Bloomberg

    Manufacturing in the euro area slowed
    more than initially estimated in June as a deepening of France’s
    downturn offset a rise in Spanish activity to a seven-year high.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  132. From Bloomberg, Jul 1, 2014, 3:37:30 AM

    June 30 (Bloomberg) — Chang Jian, chief China economist at Barclays Plc in Hong Kong, talks about the nation’s economy, government and central bank policies.
    She speaks with Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Television’s “On the Move.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    China’s manufacturing expanded in June at the fastest pace this year, adding to signs that the government’s efforts to arrest a slowdown are helping to stabilize the world’s second-biggest economy.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  133. From Bloomberg, Jul 1, 2014, 12:20:55 AM

    June 27 (Bloomberg) — Tim Condon, head of Asian research at ING Groep NV in Singapore, talks about Japan’s economy and currency.
    Consumer prices in Japan climbed at the fastest pace in 32 years, swelled by a sales-tax increase and higher utility charges that are squeezing household budgets as wage gains remain limited. Condon speaks with Angie Lau on Bloomberg Television’s “First Up.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Interest-rate swaps are signaling the
    Bank of Japan will lag far behind the Federal Reserve in ending
    record stimulus, adding pressure on the yen to weaken.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  134. From Bloomberg, Jun 30, 2014, 11:32:29 PM

    June 30 (Bloomberg) — Chang Jian, chief China economist at Barclays Plc in Hong Kong, talks about the nation’s economy, government and central bank policies.
    She speaks with Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Television’s “On the Move.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Chinese regulators increased banks’
    capacity to lend money and bolster the slowing economy by
    changing the way loan-to-deposit ratios are devised.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  135. From Bloomberg, Jul 1, 2014, 3:49:35 AM

    Most Chinese stocks rose as a report
    showing an expansion in manufacturing overshadowed losses for
    the nation’s biggest oil companies.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  136. From Bloomberg, Jul 1, 2014, 5:14:52 AM

    June 2 (Bloomberg) — Mark Kiesel, deputy chief investment officer at Pacific Investment Management Co., talks about the performance of stock and bond markets, central banks’ policy and investment strategy.
    James Liu, global market strategist at JPMorgan Funds, also speaks with Trish Regan, Alix Steel and Jonathan Ferro on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Macau’s casino revenue fell for the
    first time in five years last month as the soccer World Cup
    diverted some bettors in the world’s largest gambling hub.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  137. From Bloomberg, Jul 1, 2014, 4:59:45 AM

    June 30 (Bloomberg) — Timothy Moe, a Hong Kong-based strategist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., talks about Asian stocks.
    Moe also talks about the unrest in Iraq and its implications for oil prices. He speaks with Angie Lau and Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Television’s “Asia Edge.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Stocks and U.S. equity index futures
    rose, oil gained for the first time in four days and the yen
    weakened as Chinese factory gauges signaled expansion. The ruble
    declined after Ukraine ended a cease-fire.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  138. From Bloomberg, Jul 1, 2014, 4:39:57 AM

    Investors are being lured back to
    commodities after war and drought helped make raw materials the
    surprise best-performing major asset class in the first half.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  139. From Bloomberg, Jul 1, 2014, 3:39:01 AM

    An elderly man plays gateball in front of an apartment building in Tokyo, About one in four people in Japan are 65 or older, the highest-ever ratio, an Internal Affairs Ministry report showed in January, and its birth rate is the fourth-lowest among member nations of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Photographer: Akio Kon/Bloomberg

    Asian bonds are reaping the benefits
    of Japan’s aging population like never before.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  140. Watch this video at

    Are Facebook’s Mood Experiments Manipulative?

    June 30 (Bloomberg) — A Facebook researcher apologized after conducting an experiment that temporarily influenced what almost 700,000 readers saw on their news feeds, reviving some customers’ concerns about privacy issues. Saper Law Offices Attorney Daliah Saper speaks on “Bloomberg West.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  141. Watch this video at

    Hong Kong Braces for Democracy Rally

    July 1 (Bloomberg) — Civil Human Rights Front expects at least 150,000 protesters to march as a show of support for full universal suffrage and to oppose China’s insistence that it vet candidates for the city’s leadership election in 2017. Rosalind Chin reports on “First Up.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  142. From Bloomberg, Jul 1, 2014, 12:00:07 AM

    June 30 (Bloomberg) — Attorney General Eric Holder speaks about BNP Paribas SA’s agreement to plead guilty to violating U.S. sanctions and pay a record $8.9 billion penalty. BNP, France’s largest bank, admitted that it processed almost $9 billion in banned transactions from 2004 to 2012 involving Sudan, Iran and Cuba, the Justice Department said.
    Federal Bureau of Investigation Director James Comey, New York County District Attorney Cyrus Vance, the Internal Revenue Service’s Rich Weber, and the Justice Department’s James Cole, Leslie Caldwell and Preet Bharara also speak at the news conference. (Source: Bloomberg)

    BNP Paribas SA (BNP), barred from some dollar transactions for a year, will use a six-month grace period to set up alternate payment systems for clients to keep them from taking their business elsewhere.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  143. From Bloomberg, Jul 1, 2014, 1:15:10 AM

    Housing in the Redhill area of Singapore. Photographer: Nicky Loh/Bloomberg

    Singapore’s home prices slid for a third consecutive quarter, the longest losing streak in five years, as tighter mortgage measures cooled demand in Asia’s second-most expensive housing market.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  144. From Bloomberg, Jun 30, 2014, 10:07:21 PM

    July 1 (Bloomberg) –- Former Australia Ambassador to Egypt, Syria, Jordan and Saudi Arabia Robert Bowker discusses the crisis in Iraq and ISIL declaring itself an Islamic Caliphate with Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Television’s “On The Move.”
    (Source: Bloomberg)

    As Russia and Iran step in to bolster the government in Baghdad, U.S. President Barack Obama has no good options to help defeat the al-Qaeda splinter group that’s proclaimed an Islamic caliphate in Iraq and Syria.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  145. From Bloomberg, Jul 1, 2014, 4:46:12 AM

    Cyber-spies are targeting utility companies all over the world. Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

    A Russian group of hackers known as
    “Energetic Bear” is attacking energy companies in the U.S. and
    Europe and may be capable of disrupting power supplies,
    cybersecurity researchers said.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  146. From Bloomberg, Jul 1, 2014, 4:45:25 AM

    Paul McCulley, chief economist of Pacific Investment Management Co. (PIMCO). Photographer: Patrick T. Fallon/Bloomberg

    Pacific Investment Management Co.
    Chief Economist Paul McCulley said the Federal Reserve will
    raise interest rates in about a year as Treasuries ended June
    with a loss.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  147. From Bloomberg, Jul 1, 2014, 5:06:31 AM

    Striking members of the National Union of Metal Workers of South Africa (NUMSA) demonstrate for better wages in a central district of Johannesburg on March 19, 2014. Talks that began three months ago deadlocked on June 25. Photographer: Mujahid Safodien/AFP/Getty Images

    South Africa’s biggest labor union
    started an indefinite strike over pay at steelmaking and
    engineering companies, threatening an economy still reeling from
    a five-month platinum-mining walkout.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  148. From Bloomberg, Jul 1, 2014, 4:50:34 AM

    The rising value of gold this year
    hasn’t translated into more buyers.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  149. From Bloomberg, Jul 1, 2014, 4:27:56 AM

    Phones are displayed for sale at an AT&T Inc. store in New York. AT&T Inc., which ended March with just $3.6 billion in cash and equivalents, is paying $48.5 billion for DirecTV with two thirds of that in its own stock — a move that will help protect its creditworthiness. Photographer: Craig Warga/Bloomberg

    Big deals are back. To fund them,
    buyers are using a little creative thinking and a lot of common
    stock to fuel the best quarter for global takeovers since 2007.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  150. From Bloomberg, Jun 30, 2014, 10:04:44 AM

    A worker walks amongst piles of coal loaded onto barges on the Ohio River in West Virginia. The mining industry accounted for 5.5 percentage points of West Virginia’s GDP growth in 2013. Photographer: Ty Wright/Bloomberg

    The Environmental Protection Agency calls its carbon rules an economic winner that will deliver more than $10 in benefits for each dollar spent on compliance.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  151. From Bloomberg, Jun 30, 2014, 12:00:01 AM

    The decline in newcomers has been a drag on the nation’s real estate recovery because they typically account for 10 percent of all home sales and 15 percent of first-time purchases. Photographer: Spencer Platt/Getty Images

    After decades of factory shutdowns and population loss, the city of Dayton, Ohio, has found a fix for its housing market hard-hit by foreclosures — immigration.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  152. From Bloomberg, Jun 30, 2014, 4:38:03 PM

    Win some, lose some.

    Balancing the right to religious freedom with the need for equal treatment under the law, Justice Anthony Kennedy noted today with characteristic blandness, “can be difficult.” It gets more difficult still when the U.S. Supreme Court rules that “closely held corporations” can refuse on religious grounds to offer their employees contraception coverage.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  153. From Bloomberg, Jul 1, 2014, 5:27:36 AM

    Good morning. Here’s my take on some of the stories driving the debate in politics, finance and social issues across Asia today:

    To read the entire article, go to

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  154. From Bloomberg, Jun 30, 2014, 6:53:15 PM

    The beginning of the end?

    Under Chief Justice John Roberts, the Supreme Court is perfecting the art of the courtroom striptease.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  155. From Bloomberg, Jun 30, 2014, 3:49:30 PM

    Ruth Bader Ginsburg, center, is 81. Stephen Breyer, right,  is 75.

    The most important news from the Supreme Court this month?

    To read the entire article, go to

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  156. From Bloomberg, Jun 30, 2014, 1:33:22 PM

    Even though you may have heard a lot recently about market complacency, it turns out that periods of low volatility aren’t very unusual.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  157. NFLX upgraded to buy and target raised to $590. 


    Netflix upgraded at Goldman
    As previously reported, Goldman upgraded Netflix to Buy from Neutral. The firm believes Netflix can exceed subscriber growth expectations as it leverages connected device growth and continues to expand internationally. The analyst expects margin growth to be driven by scaling benefits in customer acquisition, content sourcing and technology. Price target raised to $590 from $380.

  158. Good morning!  

    I missed oil $106 but $105.75 is a good short on /CL with tight stops and conviction at $106 if we hit that again.  Makes a nice pair trade with /RB long at $3.04 again.  

    /TF is a good short at 1,194 with stop over 1,195 (-$100) and /YM below 16,800 and /NQ below 3,850 (not yet), which would confirm the Futures pump isn't going to hold.

  159. FU Goldman!!!!

    those mofos must be doing the secondary--dangit!

  160. Phil/AAPL, I have 2015 spread: bought 21 78.57 calls at 9.48, now 15.72. Sold 21 calls at 3.62, now 8.10. Sold 21 78.57 puts at 1.89, now 1.77 – all fine. The other day I sold 21 Sept 100 calls at 1.26, now 1.88. I  remember you saying when down 30% its time to roll. My opinion is keep the hedge as it is for now. What is your opinion. Thanks