by phil - November 24th, 2014 7:53 am
It's a short week.
That means we won't expect much volume and that's good because the volume we had on Friday was all downhill from the open. Friday's volume was almost double the other days of the week and you can see how the TradeBots took full advantage of the gapped up open – courtesy of China and Draghi's 1-2 combo stimulus.
This morning, we're drifting up again – resetting the pins for another knockdown but probably not into the end of the month (Friday), as "THEY" want to post what will end up being one of the strongest months in the market OF ALL TIME!
That's right, we're getting all-time great returns (as evidenced by our Top Trade Alerts) and the hits just keep on coming as more and more stimulus is poured on the fire. That's giving us the third highest p/e in the S&P's history, higher than the crash of 1901, higher than the crashes of 1966 or 2007 but still not quite as overpriced as 1929 and, of course, a far, far cry from the dot com crash of just 14 years ago, when YHOO was $300 a share:
Of course, if we were to throw out the ridiculous 1,000x valuations of the internet darlings of 2000 and we look at the AVERAGE 15.7x for the S&P, then we're simply 80% overvalued to the norm. That's not so terrible, is it? Oh wait, I'm sorry, that's actually pretty much the definition of terrible…
If you are paying a company 27 times what they earn, then it will take you 27 years to get your money back. That's a 4% return on your investment. With rates artificially low (now negative in some countries), 4% returns on capital seem pretty good, so money flows into the markets but, as we discussed in Member Chat this weekend, we're getting more and more divorced from the Global realities that USUALLY matter to the markets. Dangerous waters.
by phil - November 22nd, 2014 5:17 am
Happy Thanksgiving (almost)!
We added a new feature last month called Top Trades™ (Members Only) so I thought it would be a good time to see how we're doing as well as give a few tricks and tips to our new subscribers. Top Trade Alerts are sent out once or twice a week via EMail and Text Message from our Basic and Premium Live Member's Chat Room. These trades are just a very small portion of what we discuss during chat each day, but hopefully a good representative sample. Let's see how they performed so far:
We already reviewed our first Top Trade Alert™ in Thursday's post and our first 7 ideas are already up a combined 3.7% for the month but, officially, GSK was the actual Top Trade that day, and it's already up 6.1% for the month – a great way to get started! Also on Thursday, we checked out out 2nd Top Trade Idea for CAT and, with Friday's 4.27% gain, the stock is already up 9% in a month but, of course, we don't just play boring old stocks at Philstockworld – our option trade Idea was:
As a new trade on CAT, I'd sell the 2017 $80 puts for $7.30 for a very nice $72.70 net entry. That's more than the $5.60 dividend you'd make owning the stock for 2 years and a 26% discount if put to you. That's great as a stand-alone play or it can be paired with the $100/115 bull call spread at $5.50 and you still have a net $1.80 credit (so net $78.20 entry – 20% off) but 100% of the upside over $100 for the next two years.
As of yesterday's close, the $80 puts were $5.70 (up 21.9%) and the bull call spread is now $7.35 for net $1.65 plus the original $1.80 credit is $3.45, up 191% in a month on the option play. Isn't that more fun than just making 9% on the stock?
by phil - November 21st, 2014 8:01 am
MORE FREE MONEY!!!
Europe is up 2% with no signs of slowing at lunch as Mario Draghi kicks it up a notch, saying the ECB is ready to "step up the pressure" and expand its asset-purchase programs if inflation fails to show signs of quickly returning to the ECB’s target. BAM!!!
“We will continue to meet our responsibility—we will do what we must to raise inflation and inflation expectations as fast as possible, as our price stability mandate requires of us. If on its current trajectory our policy is not effective enough to achieve this, or further risks to the inflation outlook materialize, we would step up the pressure and broaden even more the channels through which we intervene, by altering accordingly the size, pace and composition of our purchases,”
That was enough to send the Euro plunging 1% ($1.24) as the Dollar jumped over the 88 line for the first time since 2010, when the Global Economy was collapsing and we looked like the only game in town. Well, China wasn't going to take that lying down so, of course, the PBOC, in the middle of the night on Friday in China, suddenly decided to cut their own rates by 0.4 to 5.6% and they lowered their deposit rate by 0.25, to 2.75% effective tomorrow.
“All the targeted easing measures or the mini stimulus measures to cut the cost of financing are in fact ineffective,” said Chang Jian, chief China economist at Barclays Plc in Hong Kong, who correctly forecast one interest rate cut in the fourth quarter of this year. “So the only way to really reduce the cost of financing is through cutting the benchmark rate.”
Today’s move suggests a shift toward pro-growth policies that may fuel even more debt. An unprecedented lending spree from 2009 to 2013 led to a surge in debt on a scale that’s triggered banking crises in other economies, according to the International Monetary Fund. China’s total…
by phil - November 20th, 2014 8:18 am
This low-volume rally is a joke.
As I pointed out to our Members in yesterday's Live Chat Room, volume on the up side of that v-shaped recovery has been 1/2 of what the volume to the downside was (comparing the last 3 weeks to the 3 before it), which means this "rally" is nothing but hot air – with very little support underneath.
And I know you get tired of hearing me say it and I get tired of saying it but, one thing I learned in 2008 is that you can't warn people often enough to be more cautious. Yes we lose subscribers when we go to cash (not much to trade) but, when the markets do pull back – my subscribers still have money!
And it's not like we can't make money with our cash. Just yesterday, we posted 7 bullish trade ideas for our Members, 3 of which we added to our virtual portfolios and one of which, a long on /SI at $16, made $2,500 per contract in 30 minutes and another $1,500 per contract this morning – that's not a bad way to sit on the sidelines, is it?
We don't ALWAYS have to be invested. We still have many long-term positions, it's just that we also have a lot of cash in case those long-term positions get cheaper and we decide to buy more. In fact, a few of yesterday's plays were just that – buying more of stocks that we've been liking all year as they go on sale.
This morning our Futures are at 17,600 on /YM, 2,040 on /ES, 4,200 on /NQ and 1,155 on /TF and we can go long on the laggard when (and IF) two of them are over and get out when 3 are below as a bullish play for the normal morning pump – that's how we make a quick $500 for you at Philstockworld!
Copper is bouncing off $3 again, that's also a good play, one that already made $1,250 per contract at $3.05 when I recommended it in Tuesday morning's post (which you can have delivered to you each morning by SUBSCRIBING HERE).
by phil - November 19th, 2014 8:30 am
Why not? Why not 3,000? 3,500? 4,000? Is there any number that will begin to sound ridiculous to top 1% traders, who are using the Fed's Free Money to make even more money for themselves? It's like the $50M balloon dog at Christies – what's the difference to people who have, essentially, infinite amounts of money to spend?
The Forbes 400, for example, made $1Tn MORE between 2009 and 2012 – an average of $300Bn a year. Last year, they added on another $400Bn bringing their total INCOME up to an average of $1,000,000,000 PER YEAR per Billionaire. Compared to the average household income of the average US Citizen of $52,000, that is, pretty much, INFINITELY more (19,230 times more, to be exact).
Meanwhile, over the same period of rampant QE, the average income of the Median Household FELL 4%, from $54,000 to $52,000.
Of course, that should be obvious, as it takes $2,000 from 150M working people just to come up with $300Bn of the $400Bn the top 400 made last year. That's how it works, folks – they take $2,000 from 150M people and the rich get richer and the poor (or the middle class) get poorer.
Yes, there is also some economic expansion – there has to be or where did the other $100Bn come from? No wonder record amounts of money (a mere $2Bn) were spent on the recent mid-term elections – in order to guarantee the top 1% that they'd get at least 2 more years of the same treatment.
And what do the top 0.0001% do with their money? Over $1Bn more pours in every day – they can't possibly spend it all on balloon dogs and $5,000 hamburgers – they HAVE to invest some of it!
Real estate left a bad taste in people's mouth very recently and, as noted by the chart below, there's not enough homes in the US for all these Billionaires to buy. Gold and silver have lost their shine, oil is a bust, bonds aren't paying any interest (also thanks to Fed meddling), so that makes equities the only…
by phil - November 18th, 2014 8:26 am
What a crock!
Though we were more or less flat yesterday, check out the huge discrepency in declining vs advancing stocks across the board. It's a stealth sell-off, the kind we often have before a major market plunge. This is what leads frustrated investors to wonder "How come the market is up but all my stocks are down?" It's a trick run by the Fund managers, who prop up momentum stocks and key index stocks to hide the fact that they are dumping the rest of their portfolios. This keeps retail traders complacent until it's far too late for them to get out safely.
We're already trading at Holiday volume levels and, as you can see from Dave Fry's SPY chart, it's the same old TradeBot pattern day after day with volume selling followed by a low volume move up and more selling into the close – all stealthy ways the Banksters and Fund Managers use to get out of the markets. As noted by Financial Sense:
Manipulation is an unfortunate fact of the financial market. Stocks and commodities have always been subject to manipulation, whether by individuals, pools, central banks or even governments. If you are unable to come to terms with this reality then it’s best to avoid participating in the market altogether. But if you’re able to come to grips with this then there is money to be made once you’re able to spot the tell-tale signs of manipulation, a skill which becomes better with experience.
That's what we teach our Members to do here at PSW, spot the manipulation and profit from it! We don't care IF the game is rigged, as long as we are able to understand HOW the game is rigged and play along with the winning side.
I balance my own moral books by pointing out the manipulation and calling for our regulators to put a stop to it and you would think that would risk our successful strategies but, in all these years, it never changes and, if anything, it gets worse, not better each year.
by phil - November 17th, 2014 8:19 am
We told you so!
Last Wednesday, right in our morning post, I told you how you could benefit from SUBSCRIBING to our newsletter because we would give you great trade ideas like this one, which we featured for free in that morning's post:
I also mentioned shorting EWJ in the morning post but, for our Live Chat Members, I sent out a Top Trade Alert specifically on the Jan $12 puts at 0.52 to go along with our call to short /NKD (Nikkei Futures) at 17,500 at 8:22 am (also in the morning post) and by 11pm last night we were close enough, at 17,490 and, already this morning, we're back at 17,100 – for a $1,950 per contract gain – all overnight and all "according to plan".
As you can see from the chart above, we had a fantastic chance to reload on the Nikkei futures (up over $2,500 per contract at the moment) as well as the EWJ puts, which should be up about 50% today – but we think we can do better than that as Japan's GDP was even worse than we thought it was going to be – declining 1.6% in Q3 and officially putting the economy back in Recession.
"None of the 18 economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had forecast a contraction; the median forecast was for a 2.25% expansion." – That's why we were able to make so much money betting on it – we're smarter than the WSJ's 18 economorons!
Another trade idea we gave away FOR FREE in Wednesday morning's post was a TZA hedge, using the Jan $12/16 bull call spread at $1.20 and already on Friday, TZA closed at $13.46, putting the spread $1.46 in the money, which is up 21.6% in the money if TZA closes there – not bad for a 2-day hedge… Of course the potential for the hedge, if the Russell keeps…
by phil - November 14th, 2014 8:16 am
Testing 2,040 on the S&P.
That's what we're doing while oil is at $74.50, copper is $3, and gasoline is $2. The Eurozone's GDP was out this morning and Germany's GDP is up 0.1%, avoiding Recession by a whopping 0.2% and France has pulled into the lead, up 0.3%, less than 1/10th of the US growth trend. Forecasts going forward are for the whole Eurozone to grow 0.1% in Q4 – the smallest miss puts them back into Recession.
The euro area’s fragile "recovery" has been in peril since economic malaise took hold of countries in the region’s core. With the revival stuttering and inflation close to the lowest level in five years, the European Central Bank has deployed unprecedented stimulus and urged governments to invest and deliver structural reforms to support growth.
Italian GDP fell 0.1% in the three months, marking the 13th consecutive quarter in which the Euro region’s 3rd-largest economy failed to grow. The Bank of Italy said yesterday that the country needs to avoid a “recessionary demand spiral” due to the “persistence of economic difficulties, which have been exceptional in terms of duration and depth.”
Meanwhile, the Euro is down 11% since May, now just $1.24 buys you one and you get 116 Yen for a Dollar, which is why our Dollar index is now popping 88 and putting massive pressure on commodities, which are also suffering from weak demand. This, of course, is collapsing Russia's commodity-based economy (along with the sanctions), with the entire Russian Stock Market's value falling below that of just Apple, Inc.
Tempting though it may be, we're not shorting the US markets while the rest of the World is swirling down the drain. Shorting US equities has been a suicide play for the past 5 years. Of course we have our bearish hedges but our main hedge is CASH!!! going into the holidays. Let Santa have his rally – we're out!
by phil - November 13th, 2014 8:24 am
What is the Fed so afraid of?
Yesterday, at about 1:45, as the market was dipping, Fed President Kocherlakota decided it would be a good time to say it would be a MISTAKE for the Fed to raise rates any time in 2015:
“It would be inappropriate for the [Federal Open Market Committee] to raise the target range for the fed funds rate at any such meeting” occurring in 2015, Mr. Kocherlakota said.
As a voting member of the FOMC, Kocherlakota's words carry a lot of weight but he was already the dissenting opinion to the Fed's last vote, so this was not NEW information – but it was enough to re-energize the bulls, as there's nothing they love more than FREE MONEY!!!
Our Futures were dipping back down this morning until 3am, when it suddenly became urgent for NY Fed President Bill Dudley to say it was "still too early to raise rates." Noting there could be a significant benefit from letting the economy run "slightly hot." Speaking at the Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates in Abu Dhabi this morning, Dudley called for "patience" on an increase in the Fed funds rate as the risk of tightening prematurely is greater than the risk of tightening too late.
It's amazing to look at the chart above and consider that Greenspan "took away the punch bowl" when rates were 5%. THAT was a rate he considered far too accommodative but his VERY BRIEF attempts to raise rates to 7% were quickly reversed as the markets collapsed in 2000 and then, of course, 9/11 happened and rates were dropped to near zero to goose the economy – leading to our 2007 housing bubble that almost destroyed the Universe.
This time, of course, is different because – well because it is, right? Sure it could be argued that bubble #1 came during the dot com boom, when Clinton was in office and everyone had jobs and the deficit was low and the economy was booming and…
by phil - November 12th, 2014 8:16 am
So close, and yet so far.
Our 5% Rule™ dictates that we need to have two consecutive DAYS (not just closes) above one of our support levels before we consider it as a real sign and, yesterday, the Dow did FINALLY hold its critical "Must Hold" line at 17,600.
Unfortunately, that lasted all of 2 hours and then the Futures re-opened 20-points lower and, since then, we've lost another 50 points. So REJECTED so far on our first test of the middle for the Dow, which has long been the laggard in getting up to our expected trading range for 2015 (the Big Chart is always a year ahead).
The Nasdaq, on the other hand, has long been our leader (thanks to our Stock of the Year, AAPL, gaining 46% and contributing 9% to the Nasdaq's 23% move). Perhaps we should have realized that, if we were right about AAPL, we should have set more aggressive targets for the Nasdaq in the first place.
As Dave Fry notes on his Nasdaq chart, it's hard to write anything meaningful about the movement of the last few weeks other than, as I pointed out yesterday – it's Bullshit. The Nasdaq has popped 400 points (10%) in 4 weeks and is on pace to be up 130% by next December OR, if that doesn't seem likely to you, then maybe you see why it's our key short in our Short-Term Portfolio.
Our Short-Term Portfolio has, in fact, taken a beating this past month – as it's full of hedges that are getting slaughtered. Now we're only up 70% for the year (down from over 100%) but the trade-off is, of course, that our bullish (and 5x larger) Long-Term Portfolio is now up 23.5% for the year. That's pretty good as they aren't both supposed to be up at the same time anyway.
We haven't changed our aggressively bearish short-term position, despite losing 30% of our gains on this rally, because the volume simply isn't confirming the breakout and that means that all these gains can be just a quickly reversed – and we sure don't want to…