by phil - July 27th, 2016 8:30 am
What a morning already.
Japan's PM, Shinzo Abe made a surprise announcement of a 28 TRILLION Yen stimulus package just two days ahead of the BOJ meeting. 28Tn Yen is "just" $265Bn but Japan's economy is 1/4 the size of the US, so think of it as a US $1Tn stimulus – that is impressive by any measure!
As you can see on the chart, it's been a muted reaction by the Yen so far as we wait for details on Abe's plan, wait for our own Fed to make a decision (2pm) and then wait for the BOJ's decision on Friday so a lot of waiting is in our immediate future and, meanwhile, let's talk about yesterday and yesterday's FANTASTIC call to short the Futures at:
- 18,450 on the Dow (/YM), low was 18,311 for a $659 per contract gain
- 2,165 on the S&P (/ES), low was 2,154 for a $550 per contract gain
- 4,650 on the Nasdaq (/NQ), low was 4,640 for a $200 per contract gain
The Russell never went below our shorting line at 1,205 but we ran up to 1,213 and I called a short there in our Live Member Chat room and we caught a dive back to 1,205 for an $800 per contract gain on that one – TWICE!
Today we're looking much higher with the Russell over 1,215, Dow 18,450 again, S&P 2,167.50 and the Nasdaq is testing 4,700 (/NQ Futures) thanks to an upside surprise from Apple's earnings report. AAPL is a key long at PSW and yesterday morning I said to our Members:
AAPL/Selozi – Talk about stupidly undervalued stocks. I hope AAPL misses so we can double down on our longs but expectations are so low, I'm not sure they can miss them. 36 analysts cover this stock and they are expecting just $42Bn in sales, off 15% from last year's $49.6Bn. Will be very interesting to see what actually happens but the stock is already down 30% from last summer's $130, even though they
by phil - July 26th, 2016 9:25 am
That's our shorting line on the S&P 500 Futures (/ES) and the significant line below that is the S&Ps 15% line on our Big Chart at 2,127.50 so that's the range we'll be looking for if we're going to have the beginnings of a proper correction. Anything less than that is just a blip as we consolidate for (and I hate to say it) a move higher.
Of couse, we don't need to go all the way back to 2,127.50 to make money. Last Thursday, we laid out our shorting lines from our Live Member Chat Room, right in the morning post and they were (and still are):
18,500 is lined up with 2,165 on /ES, 4,650 on /NQ and 1,205 on /TF, we want to see them all below to play a short.
Then on Friday, I noted we made a profit of $500 per contact at 2,155 so of course we did it again when the levels broke again yesterday. Learning to make money in the markets is a lot like learning to be a great stage performer – you learn your part, do it well and then learn to consistently repeat your performance over and over again. Much like most rock bands – no one in the audience is interested in your new stuff – just play the hits please!
S&P Futures expire in September and sentiment has them trailing the actual index, which finished at 2,168.50, 6.50 above the Futures levels, so keep that 6.5-point difference in mind when we're looking at the S&P chart and talking about the headline levels vs. the Futures.
As you can see from the hourly S&P chart, yesterday's 13-point dip hardly registers in the bigger picture and we're still costing along the upper end of the 50-hour moving average at the top end of the bullish range. It's going to take more than a blip like that to scare off the dip buyers – who have been rewarded by the Fed(s) for their aggressive behavior pretty much since 2009!
There's not much to do but watch and wait ahead of our Fed's announcement on Wednesday afternoon and the BOJ on Friday morning and we can expect to drift along near the highs at least until we year from our own Central Bank tomorrow.
by phil - July 25th, 2016 8:01 am
Unlike the wicked witch, who uttered that phrase during the previous Global Depression, liquidity has been good for the markets so far as the World is swimming in it and, even this week, more is expected from the Bank of Japan on Friday. The entire G20 got together this weekend and promised to use "all policy tools" to lift global growth:
"While the weekend's signals from the G20 meeting in China were welcome, investors were bracing for a hectic week that includes a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting, European bank stress tests and what could be another super-sized slug of stimulus from Japan. 'The Bank of Japan is really the one that is front and centre this time with the all talk around 'helicopter money," said TD's Richard Kelly, "if they disappoint, which I think is probably more likely, then we are likely to see risk assets coming off.'"
I've been calling for CASH!!! all summer and so far, so wrong on that one as we make fresh record highs pretty much every day since the Brexit but now Goldman Sachs (GS) has decided to agree with me, putting out their own 5-point warning to clients:
- Valuations are already at historical extremes. The S&P 500 trades at a forward P/E of 17.6x, ranking in the 89th percentile since 1976. At 18.4x, the median constituent ranks in the 99th percentile. Most other metrics such as P/B, EV/EBITDA, and EV/Sales paint a similar picture. These valuations are only justifiable because of the historically low interest rate environment.
- Zero profit growth is not consistent with high stock valuations. Sluggish global growth and low inflation along with negative interest rate policies in Europe and Asia have led to record low US bond yields. Consistent with this backdrop, 2Q results will show the seventh consecutive quarter of declining year/year operating EPS (-3%, but +1% ex-Energy). Despite near-record margins, adjusted S&P 500 EPS have been flat for three straight years.
- Many Financials will have lower profits if low interest rates persist. Historically low yields squeeze the net interest income of banks and make liabilities harder to meet for insurance companies. Our Bank equity research team this week cut their EPS forecasts by 5%-7%. The fall in Treasury yields explains most
by phil - July 22nd, 2016 7:26 am
What a week.
Congratulations if you caught our call to short the Dow at 18,500 yesterday morning, that was good for a profit of $500 on each contract as we tested 18,400 in the afternoon – not bad for a day's work! Our other winning short index calls were:
- 2,165 on the S&P Futures (/ES), which fell to 2,155 – up $500 per contract
- 4,650 on the Nasdaq (/NQ), which fell to 4,630 – up $400 per contract
- 1,205 on the Russell (/TF), which fell to 1,198 – up $700 per contact
As you can see from the Dow chart above, we took a few losses poking short on the Dow during the week but it's all worth it when you catch a big winner on the way down. This morning, of course, we're moving back up on no volume – which is why we end up shorting in the first place.
Per our 5% Rule™, the week's fall from 18,550 to 18,400 is 150 points so a weak bounce is 30 points to 18,430 and a strong bounce is 60 points to 18,460 and 18,475 is the 50% line, which is where we'd poke short again with very tight stops and then, once the strong bounce line fails – we'd look for shorting opportunities at the strong bounce lines on all our indexes again.
Despite successfully playing for a bounce on oil and gasoline in yesterday's Live Member Chat Room, we are generally expecting a repeat of last Fall's fall and that is going to be bad news for the broad market as there is already a severe disconnect between Energy Sector stocks and the price of the energy they sell.
Like much of the S&P, a combination of financial engineering (and note that Business Insider is now a lot more critical of Microsoft's (MSFT) earnings than I was on Wednesday) and completely irrational exuberance has led to unrealistic valuations that even the loosest of Fed models won't be able to sustain. With Exxon (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) both heavy Dow…
by phil - July 21st, 2016 8:32 am
No more easing?
The BOJ's Koroda said this morning that there is "no need and no possibility for helicopter money." That's a pretty firm line in the sand and, as you can see on the Nikkei chart, it led to a very quick 425-point sell-off (2.5%) which is in the process of failing the strong bounce of 170 points from 15,575 to 16,745 and failing the weak bounce again at 16,660 will be a bad sign for the /NKD Futures according to our fabulous 5% Rule™.
We're wathing the Nikkei but we already shorted the Dow and the US indexes in our Live Member Chat Room this morning, when I said to ur Members:
18,500 is lined up with 2,165 on /ES, 4,650 on /NQ and 1,205 on /TF, we want to see them all below to play a short.
I have been saying for some time that the Central Banks have reached the end of the line on QE but clearly the bulls in the market did not believe me and our recent attempts to short the Dow have not ended well but now the ECB has also put rates on hold this morning and that paves the way for the Fed to RAISE rates at their next meeting (next Wednesday, 27th).
We'll see how the markets actually react to the end of the Free Money era. It certainly needed to happen as we've been on a path to insanity and it's a lot better to begin a controlled deceleration of QE than to keep priming the pump until the bubble explodes in our faces. How the markets will react to a mature decision remains to be seen.
Draghi, of course, is still talking a big game, saying the ECB stands ready to do something while, as usual, doing nothing. Those who thought Brexit would lead to more QE will be bitterly disappointed but perhaps their too-early buying frenzy in aniticipation of ECB action was itself a factor in deterring the ECB from acting?
The IMF has issued an urgent call for the G20 to "adopt policies to boost growth and avert a global slowdown" saying Governments should be prepared to provide fiscal stimulus while the…
by phil - July 20th, 2016 8:23 am
Generally Accepted Accounted Principles (GAAP).
According to Investopedia: "GAAP are imposed on companies so that investors have a minimum level of consistency in the financial statements they use when analyzing companies for investment purposes. GAAP cover such things as revenue recognition, balance sheet item classification and outstanding share measurements. Companies are expected to follow GAAP rules when reporting their financial data via financial statements. If a financial statement is not prepared using GAAP principles, be very wary!"
Let's keep those guidlines in mind as we discuss Microsoft's (MSFT) earnings last night as they are a fine expample of the kind of BULLSHIT that is permeating the market these days. MSFT's GAAP Revenue was $20.6Bn and GAAP Earnings were 0.39 per share, missing by a mile but, after adding back "Windows 10 deferrals to revenue" and "impairment, integration and restructuring charges", they are able to boost their non-GAAP reported earnings to $22.6Bn and that extra $2Bn of revenues, which were actual expenses but have been erasted from the report, drops straight to the non-GAAP bottom line and almost doubled non-GAAP earnings to 0.69/share – a nice beat!
And that's not the end of it as MSFT also made non-GAAP (non-Generally Accepted) adjustments to their taxes and reports that they will only pay $225M on $3.3Bn in earnings (7%). We can be outraged about this on many levels but the earnings weren't real so it's really not fair to expect them to pay taxes on their fake earnings, is it? It is, however, "fair" to expect invesors to pay $55 for the stock this morning, up from $53 yesterday based on all these fake earnings. After all, the investors are just suckers, born every minute and growing up to hold the bags.
Microsoft is part of the Big Con, which is moving the whole market to all-time highs. It's a significant stock on all the indexes so it will lead us higher this morning – even as the broad market continues to sell off as the big boys run for the exits during this "rally". By holding up just a few large-cap stocks, the Fund Managers and Banksters can cover their tracks as they sell off the rest of their holdings – all the while…
by phil - July 19th, 2016 8:16 am
Watch Germany's DAX closely:
That 10,000 line is hyper-critical – it's their Must Hold Line and, as you can see on the daily chart – it's barely been holding and just failed again this morning as Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment survey showed a horriffic post-Brexit (July 4-18) drop to -6.8 from +19.2 in June and miles below the forecast of leading economorons, who expected +9 as the DAX rallied 800 points during the period in question.
Even worse was the assessment of Eurozone Sentiment, which fell from 20.2 in June to -14.7 in July. This indicates that Europe is not out of the woods just yet and we, at PSW, certainly got that impression from the way the Euro Stoxx Index failed to get back over 3,000 last week but, so far, we are still alone in our bearish veiw of the market.
Volume on the S&P ETF (SPY) yesterday was 54M, a new record low for the year and about half the average volume for 2016, which is less than 2/3 of 2015s average volume so, if you are buying stocks – you're pretty much alone these days. I gave a little lecture on why low volumes lead to stock rallies in our Live Trading Webinar and it's things like this that keep us in CASH!!! and on the sidelines – because this whole move up (8.5%) since the Brexit downturn has come on extremely low volume.
As you can see from Dave Fry's note on Friday's S&P chart, volumes have been going down and down and the only "people" buying are the Central Banksters, who are desperately propping up the markets lest people begin to panic and start causing liquidity crises which the CBs are in no condition to deal with at the moment.
Unfortunately, while it's easy enough to push the market to record highs when Central Banks step in and begin buying up equities – sustaining them there is quite another story and here's why:
Let's say you have a car lot with 100 VW Beetle Convertibles and you bought them for $20,000 and you hope to sell them for
by phil - July 18th, 2016 8:21 am
What a busy weekend.
Turkey almost had a coup but it's already over and you can see that spike down on the end of Friday's chart that shows you the entire hour that the markets cared about a military coup in one of our NATO allies.
I've already spent more time discussing it than the market has spent caring and I'm not even going to bother mentioning our own Government using the coup in Turkey to slip in GDP revisions under the radar that were revised down from 2.6% in 2016 to 1.9%. Hey, what's a 26% downgrade between friends? Next year is forecast at 2.5% (down 0.1%) and we have 2018 and 2019 to look forward to, at 2.2% growth.
Of course, what really matters is earnings, I guess – but they are sucking too and 90 S&P 500 companies (18%) will report this week and Reuters is projecting a 4.7% decline in earnings from last year but don't worry, last quarter was down 5% from last year and we're at record highs 3 months later!
As I noted on Wednesday ("Record High Rally Based on BS Stock Buyback Binge"), the radically decreased stock base is papering over all those negative proifts and making everything look fine(ish) so we can all keep fiddling while Rome burns – and don't even get me started on what a mess Italy still is…
18% ($360Bn) of Italy's bank loans are in technical default. France is the next "problem" country with 5% vs 1.5% in the UK, Germany and most normal countries. While the Government in Rome and the ECB have kicked this can down the road over and over again, do not kid yourself – Italy is the next Greece.
In two weeks, the European Banking Authority will publish their semi-annual report which will highlight the banks' weak capital positions at the same time as Global Banks are reporting their weak earnings – I wonder if investors will be able to connect the dots? We flipped short on the Banking Sector last week with FAS.
by phil - July 15th, 2016 8:34 am
There was another horrible terror attack in France yesterday.
The markets have given it a big "who cares" so let's act like it doesn't matter because it's Options Expiration Day and it's much more important we pump up the stock indexes (back to that magic 3,000 mark on Euro Stoxx and 10,000 on Germany's DAX) so the Funds, who are about to dump massive amounts of shares, can buy cheap puts to protect their gains during the sell-off.
Oops, I'm not supposed to tell you that – it's one of those inside market manipulators' secrets we're not supposed to discuss with the retail
suckers traders. Move along, nothing to see here, pay no attention to the man behind the curtain. Terrorism? Why on Earth would that affect the stock market? President Trump plans to nuke those suckers out of existence, so why should we be worried? It's nice to know he has a plan – even if the plan is horrifying!
We still haven't gone full-blown short on the markets because the technicals are so set against us but we did press our short bets in our Short-Term Portfolio as well as our Options Opportunity Portfolio in yesterday's Member Chat. We looked over our Member Portfolios in Wednesday's Live Trading Webinar and the replay for that is HERE.
While the Dow and S&P may be at all-time highs, we're still waiting for the Nasdaq (5,150), NYSE (11,250) and Russell (1,292) to confirm the move and, of course, looking at the DAX, they are still miles away (20%) from last year's high of 12,500 and China is still 40% off the highs and Japan's Nikkei is still 20,000 points (50%) off it's all time high at 39,000 but that was 1989. More recently (last July, in fact) the Nikkei topped out at 20,600 so 16,600 is only down 4,000 – also 20%ish.
So all the other global markets are down 20-40% and we are making all-time highs. This hasn't happened since October of 2007, so I'm sure there's nothing to worry about this time either…
by phil - July 14th, 2016 7:48 am
What a crazy day!
In our Live Member Chat Room this morning, we called the short on the Dow Futures (/TF) off that silly run-up into the BOE Rate Decision at 7 am and the BOE surprised everyone (except us) by NOT lowering rates and the market quickly threw a temper tantrum – even though the BOE indicated they would be happy to raise rates in August if the economy showed signs of weakness.
August is, by the way, 17 days from now.
Truly investors have become complete babies, running after any shiny object and having complete fits if any little thing doesn't go their way. There's no such thing as long-term investing anymore – it's all about today and maybe tomorrow and oh look, something shiny….
This is why we wanted to short. In the last 2 weeks, 90% of the best on the BOE meeting were for a cut and the EU stocks rallied about 10% in expectation and our markets have made all-time highs in an attempt to catch up (even though the EU is miles below their all-time highs and oh look – shiny).
So, logically, how much damage could an actual cut do compared to the "shock" of there not being a cut? Thanks to the August "promise" the bulls aren't taking things too badly but we've been sitting out this rally with our 3 small portfolios parked in fairly market-neutral positions (and mainly CASH!!!) while our Long-Term Portfolio has been reaping the gains but yesterday we took some more money and ran on our LTP, which is up a ridicuclous 110.8% because, as I often remind our Members – it's not really a profit unless you take it off the table!
Philly Fed President Pat Harker was ignored this morning when he said the Fed may still hike TWICE (2x) in 2016. There are only 4 more meetings, 7/27, 9/21, 11/2 and 12/14 and we know what happened when the Fed hiked last Dec so, logically (what's that?), with the market at or near record highs – the Fed pretty much HAS to hike in two weeks.