Phil's Newsletter

Failing Friday – China Defaults Keep Adding Up

FXI WEEKLYI told you so.

I told you so yesterday and, much more profitably, I told you so on the morning of May 11th, when FXI opened at $50.75 on news of more Chinese stimulus and we called for a short using the FXI June $50 puts, which were $1.20 at the time and are now $1.60 – up 33% in 12 days.  We're already done with those and have moved on to new FXI short positions.  

Yesterday we talked about the sudden and still unexplained failures of Hanergy and Goldin and now, this morning, Ordos' (the ghost city) Huyan Investment Group is unable to pay the piper on $194M round of bonds as they have $1.1Bn in debt and just $3.5M in cash remaining.   

Huyan is just a drop in the Ordos bucket, where $3-5BBn worth of bonds are likely to default every year for the next 12 years – so the hits just keep on coming in China.  Ordos city bonds have climbed to 9.63% as the city's rating has been cut to A on negative watch.  In the rating statement, Pengyuan described the Ordos property market as “extremely not optimistic” because of the slowing economy and pressure the coal industry is facing.  Several other firms have also been downgraded and will be having trouble rolling their debt in the next round.

Meanwhile, Zhuhai Zhongfu Enterprise (a bottling company) is short $72M of the next $106M they owe on May 28th and they have just $10M left in the bank.  This company employs 4,000 people and bottles for both KO and PEP in China.  Meanwhile, shares of ZZ are up 126% this year but have been suspended since April 29th with a $10Bn market cap.  This is the state of Chinese companies, folks – there are many more examples and here's even more.   

The above chart illustrates the game that is being played in China to keep things LOOKING good, even while they are falling apart.  Then we have to take into account that 90% of the public companies in China are some form of quasi-state controlled entities.  While a lot of "investors" take solace in that, believing the Government will back
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Fearless Thursday – Fiddling While Rome Burns

SPY  5  MINUTEThis is just getting silly!  

Look at the ridiculous and FAKE move up that began BEFORE the Fed announcement at 2pm that was completely reversed by 3pm with, as usual, twice as much down volume as up volume during the hour.  There, in a nutshell, is what the entire market has been doing since we bailed on it in late March.  

Don't get me wrong, we're having an absolute blast taking advantage of all this blatant market manipulation but, come on – can we ever get back to reality, where it matters how much money companies are making and what sort of return on investment they offer?  While we're waiting for that to happen, at 2:11 pm I said to our Members in our Live Chat Room:

I'm back one short /TF at 1,257.50 but not a lot of conviction.  Dollar at 95.72, so not seen as easy by the currency traders.  

This morning we flipped long on /TF at 1,252.50, which was good for a $500 per contract gain from our short and now we're back to flat at 1,255, which was good for a $250 per contract gain from our long.  Even better, the long trade idea we had on Gasoline Futures (/RB) in Tuesday's Live Trading Webinar (replay here) hit our goaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaallllllllllllll at $2.06 this morning and that was good for $2,520 per contract – not bad for a free Webinar pick!  

Don't worry, for those of you too cheap to subscribe to one of our Membership packages, our next Free Webinar is scheduled for June 24th – I'm sure we'll have another good pick for you then!  

Speaking of economies that are burning, we'll be looking for a short entry on China (FXI) this morning as their PMI was negative for the 3rd consecutive month (and 5 out of 6) DESPITE massive stimulus.  We got burned shorting FXI last month and we've been looking for another entry.

Aside from the bearish economic macros in China, we had Hanergy Thin Film Power (OTCPK:HNGSF) dropping 47%
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Wednesday: Japan GDP Not Strong Enough – Now What?

Japan grew 0.6% in Q1.

That's a 2.4% annualized growth rate but, of course, that's priced in Yen, which are down 14.8% since last year so, in fact, Japan's economy, in Dollar terms, is losing 12.4% from last year.  This is not the headline you'll hear in the MSM though, where the overwhelming message is "Don't Worry, Be Happy" and, in fact, Robert Shiller just wrote an article telling people to cheer the F'ck up to avoid a Depression.  

As you can see from the chart above, adding 80Tn Yen worth of debt in the last 5 years has only added 25Tn Yen worth of GDP and the current 495Tn Yen GDP is still well below 2007's 505Tn Yen and, at the time 505Tn Yen was worth $5.5Tn but now, 495Tn Yen is only worth 41.25Tn so, in Dollar terms (or any steady currency), the GDP of Japan has actually DROPPED 25% since 2007 and this quarter's "boost" of 0.6% comes on the back of an additional 5% drop in they Yen since Q4 of last year.  

Yet no one will mention this in the MSM.  Why?  Well first of all it's complicated and even NYTimes readers' eyes glaze over when you start doing math.  Secondly, it doesn't fit the narrative that our Corporate Masters want you to swallow – that QE is working and more QE is better and all that matters is that the stock market goes up and everything else will be fine.  

I ranted about this in yesterday's Live Trading Webinar and you can watch a replay of that HERE, so I won't get into it again.  We also made $100/contract live trading the Russell Futures and our bullish trade on Gasoline Futures (/RB) that we played into the close is already up $1,000 per contract this morning as /RB is back over $2.02 already (you're welcome).

SPY DAILYSo, moving on from Japan (and I sent out an Member's Alert this morning with in-depth coverage and trade ideas), as you can see from Dave Fry's SPY chart, our record highs are still coming on record low volumes and that means that…
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Tuesday: Euro Drops 1.5% as ECB Promises MORE FREE MONEY!!!

Embedded image permalinkBad news is great news!  

The Greek talks have stalled, England's CPI is deflating, German GDP slipped to 0.3% in Q1 and German Investor Sentiment (ZEW) dove to a 5-month low, dropping over 20% in one month to 41.9.  That and collapsing bond prices were the last straw for the ECB, who announced this morning they would "front-load" their $75Bn monthly bond-buying into May and June, to avoid having to bother over the holidays.   

This is a fun way the ECB can double up on stimulus without SAYING they are doubling up on stimulus:

“Even though this is just front-loading, it is effectively an increase in the size of quantitative easing, even if just for a short period of time,” said Simon Derrick, a currency strategist at BNY Mellon.  “It shows that within the existing framework, the ECB is willing and able to be incredibly flexible,” Mr. Derrick said.

Separately on Tuesday, Christian Noyer, the head of France’s central bank and a member of the ECB governing council, said the ECB was ready to go further if needed to meet its inflation target.  “The purchase program will continue until the end of September 2016 and beyond if we do not see a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation,” he said.  

Does anyone besides me think it's strange to announce more QE WHILE the markets are making record highs?  Anyone???  

We have indeed fully embraced the worst kind of Voodoo Economics, with the World's Central Banks creating endless supplies of money out of thin air by simply writing checks to buy bonds which enable the Sovereign nations to go endlessly into debt.  There have been, so far, no consequences for this behavior and even countries like Greece, who have no possibility whatsoever of being able to pay off their debts, are lent more and more money.

As you can see from the chart, household debt and Government debt have climbed…
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Monday Marketing – The Active Managers Strike Back

Active managers finally had a good quarter.  

As you can see from the chart on the right, it was kind of a pathetic quarter with Actively Managed Funds (who research U.S. stocks before they buy or sell, as opposed to ETFs or other passive funds) outperforming by about 1%, but it's the first time stock pickers beat the benchmarks since 2013, so you're going to hear a lot of crowing about it this week.  

And active managers can afford to crow, because they charge you massive fees for that 1% outperformance (once every few years and following last year's 7% underperformance), so they've got lots of money for PR and advertising and that's why, this week, you'll be hearing the words "Active Management" mentioned over and over again in the MSM, who are very happy to tout the benefits of anything that pays them money.  

I'm not against Active Management per se – we teach our PSW Members to be active managers of their own portfolios.  I'm not fan of ETFs either as you end up buying the bad with the good – I'm simply pointing out that this small, 1% outperformance in one Q of one year should not be used to convince you that Active Managers have a clue.  NO ONE has a clue as to where to invest your money that's better than your own ideas (assuming you are educated enough to be reading and understanding this in the first place).  

The TREMENDOUS advantage you have when you learn to invest your own money is that you're not charging yourself fees.  It's not the performance of active management that kills you – IT'S THE FEES.  Even at "just" 1%, over 50 years of investing your active manager is taking 50% of your total account!  Unless his long-term outperformance is better than 1% per year, YOU WILL LOSE MONEY WITH ACTIVE MANAGERS.  

YOU are the best person to invest your own money and our goal at PSW is to teach you that it's not hard to do that.  At the base level, you should start by investing in things you know well.  When I was 7 years old…
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Philstockworld May Portfolio Review – Part II

The S&P has gone nowhere since our last review.

An neither have our portfolios!  Actually, we did gain another $8,092 (1%) in our Long-Term Portfolio, which is very good for two weeks and exremely good considering we're over 100% in CASH!!!  

How are we over 100% in cash?  Because we are BEING THE HOUSE – Not the Gambler™ and we are operating our Stock Market Casino and selling risk premium to others.  That is how we can reliably get these great returns.  We are NOT gambling, we are running a statistically beneficial model that allows us to collect risk premiums from people who are gambling on the direction of the stocks we own.  

The actual net value of the positions we hold is -$26,825, because we kept our losers back on March 24th, when we went to mainly cash ahead of this choppy earnings period – but our CASH!!! pile has greatly increased.  The S&P was at 2,104 then, it's at 2,122 now but our Long-Term Portfolio is up 12.1% since then and, depsite going to mainly cash, we have added 12 new positions in two months.  

The key is that we have much less at risk now and we're simply grinding out those montly gains that we can count on by SELLING risk to others, not gambling ourselves on which way the market might go.  Meanwhile, just yesterday we found two new trade ideas for the LTP – even in a rally, there are bargains to be had if you are PATIENT!  As I said back in March:

While it is our INTENTION in the LTP to hold our positions over time, when we get a ridiculous run in the market like the one we've had for the past year, it is simply foolish not to take advantage of it.  The stocks we bought were targeted to make 40% in two years, not 15 months and, when you are that far ahead of the curve – it's wise to turn those unrealized gains into realized ones before they disappear on you!

As we move through Q1 earnings, we'll be making a new Buy List for 2015 and, now

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Fabulous Friday – All-Time Highs Prove Investors Must Be Stoned

SPY  5  MINUTEYou know pot must be legal these days.

How else do you explain these non-stop, non-pause moves up in the market on no particular volume?  Can everything really be that awesome and what, exactly is it that is awesome in the first place?

Yesterday we saw Avon (AVP) jump 20% after a FAKE takeover rumor on an SEC-maintained web site from a FAKE company calling itself PTG Capital Partners who filed a document stating they would pay $8Bn for AVP, which has generally been in free-fall for two years as their business model collapses.  

Embedded image permalinkDespite the TERRIBLE fundamentals of this company, within two minutes of this fake filing being posted by a fake company (11:34), the stock began climbing from $6.50, all the way up to $8 by 11:45 before the 23% gain triggered a halt in the system.   

That 7-minute break gave AVP time to deny that they had received an offer and the stock re-opened at 11:52 and dropped 10% that same minute, triggering another halt.  Another 7-minute break and another 7-minute break and another drop of just under 10% let the stock sell off for the rest of the day.  All in all it was total idiocy, but idiocy with a $3Bn company on a major exchange – not a penny stock!  

"The SEC has so many forms being filed, I don't think it can check every one," former SEC lawyer, Robert Heim said. "But I think they could do a better job acting as a gatekeeper."

The filing contained many red flags raising questions about its authenticity, including numerous typographical errors and two different spellings of the company's own name. That would be highly unusual in an authentic regulatory filing, which would receive close scrutiny from companies before being posted.  But robot traders and the sheeple that follow them don't read the reports, they just look for the keyword "buyout" and the frenzy begins!  

That's the kind of market we're in now – it's a madhouse and it's fine if you want to play along but try…
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Thrilling Thursday – Markets Continue Their Wild Ride

SPY  5  MINUTEWhat a great day we had yesterday!  

For those of you lucky enough to read our morning post (and you can have yours delivered pre-market, daily by subscribing HERE), we had re-picked a short position on S&P Futures (/ES) at 2,105 and, as you can see from Dave Fry's chart, we got a lovely drop down to 2,092, which was good for a gain of $650 per contract in the first 90 minutes of trading.  

 We also caught the incredibly obvious oil moves where our $61.50 entry gave us a ride all the way to $60 (up $1,500 per contract) by the day's end, though most of us were in and out during the day, profiting from the bounces as well as the drops.  Like our Member, Craigsa620, who said:

Phil- I want to let you know that you really helped me make some money this morning when I probably would have lost on my own. I was stuck in doctors waiting rooms most of the morning starting at 8AM. By following the game plan you laid out and using my smartphone, I went short on oil whenever we got to 61.50 and long at 61 waiting for the spikes ahead of inventory. When 10:30 rolled around I was out after selling longs at 61.60 a few minutes earlier. I went short at 61.75-61.80 and voila, rode it down to 60.60 or so. Thank you. 


All in all, it's the same general thing we did last Wednesday and we can do this on a regular basis because the oil market is MANIPULATED on a regular basis.  Maybe the regulators can't see the blatant pattern of manipulation going on at the NYMEX but we sure can – so we may as well bet on it while it's going on.  

Perhaps the reason no one is willing to call shenanigans on the NYMEX traders is because the biggest market manipulators of them all are our own Central Banks.  In the last 3 weeks,…
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Will We Hold It Wednesday – S&P 2,100 Edition (again)

SPX WEEKLYNow this is getting interesting.  

As you can see from Dave Fry's S&P chart, we are really close to failing the bottom of that wedge we've been testing since March and the 5th time may be a charm – as that's how many times we've tested 2,100 in the last 30 days.  

Of course, technically, we failed it at yesterday's close but one day does not a trend make, so we'll watch and see if the bulls have any gas left in the tank.  It goes without saying that we're getting a lift pre-market – that's just the way things are supposed to be, right?  We don't like to call it manipulation, just "early enthusiasm" that sets the prices higher before the bell rings and the Retail Customers are allowed to play.  

INDU WEEKLYOn the Dow, 17,750 is the line to watch and that's been tested almost every single week since March began.  Not yet this week but it's only Wednesday, which makes shorting the Dow Futures (/YM) at the 18,100 line a very interesting play this morning.  

If you're not a Futures trader, you can pick up the Dow Jones ETF (DIA) June $177 puts for $2, they have a delta of 0.32 so they pick up 32 cents for each 100 points the Dow drops, which means a trip back to 17,750 would net you almost $1.50 in profit (75%) – not bad for a quick hedge.  If the Dow heads over the line – especially if Nasdaq goes back over 5,000, you can kill the trade for a smallish loss (0.32 or less) which means we have a very favorable risk/reward profile on that trade – that's exactly what we like to see in a hedge.  

Last Wednesday, right in the morning post, we discussed shorting the S&P Futures at 2,105 (/ES) and the S&P bottomed out at 2,060 for a $1,750 per contract gain.  We're at that spot again this morning and our Members are shorting it again because – well because we LIKE making money so we're not ashamed to make it doing the same thing over and over again.  

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Tricky Tuesday – Treasury Yields Take Off

Another tricky day!

Investors are selling their bonds all around the World and that's forcing yields higher despite the best efforts of the Central Banksters to keep them in check.  The US has $100Bn worth of TBills to sell this week and we'll see what prices we get but the real danger is, of course, Japan, where 10-year notes carry 0.461% interest and that's already up from 0.3% in April.  For a country that's 250% of their GDP in debt and using 30% of their tax revenues just to service the interest on that debt – another 0.1% here or there REALLY MATTERS!  

We're short on Japan, of course, I detailed those trades in last week's posts, for that simple reason – if rates simply rise to a "normal" level of 1% – the country is going to be unable to service their debt.  That's a very simple premise, isn't it?  

As you can see from the chart, we've been having a fantastic time since our top call on the Nikkei at 20,000 (it went a bit over, but we stuck with it) and we already tested 19,000 last week and today we're back at 19,500 (and playing long for a bounce) but, once 19,500 fails, 19,000 may not hold this time and we could be in for a wild ride down.

The root of our cautious economic outlook lies in the chart above.  Even if we ignore the outlying Japan crisis, the US, UK, Germany, France, Italy and Canada are not far behind in indebtedness.  Every man, woman and child in the US owes $59,000 in debt already and it's all fine as long as no one asks anyone else to pay it back but look what happened to Greece when someone did ask for their money back...

Today, at 1pm, the US Government will ask to refinance another $24Bn for 3 years through the Treasury Auction.  By flooding the World with money, the Central Banks have insured that there is a ready supply of the stuff but the reality is that Japan, China, Germany, etc. (as well as our own Fed)…
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Swing trading portfolio - week of May 24th, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Zero Hedge

Guest Post: Gray Skies And Memorial Day Reflections

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Scott Spangler via,

Most Americans today have but two connections with those who serve and have served in the military, and especially those who have perished in that service. The first is the hollow seconds it takes to utter “Thank you for your service,” an seemingly autonomic reflex when seeing someone in uniform. The other occurs should they see a film about any of our many conflicts. Since America’s last declared war, which ended 70 years ago, Memorial Day has become an annual celebration of patriotic hypocrisy, when people might notice that the American flag th...

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Chart School

Tight Trading Covered Last Weeks Action

Courtesy of Declan.

Friday didn't bring a flourish of buying or selling into the long weekend, so it's up to Tuesday to price in weekend news. Opportunities are available for both bulls and bears. Bulls will be looking to the S&P to push from 5-day days of tight, sideways pattern in an effort to put some distance to 2120. Technicals are mixed, with a strong 'buy' in the MACD and bullish momentum, offset by a 'sell' trigger in On-Balance-Volume and some mixed action in the ADX. One point of note is the bullish cross in relative performance against the Russell 2000. In the bears camp is the Nasdaq. While it has managed to hold 5038 support it has resistance at 5096 to contend with. This may give bea...

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Phil's Favorites

News You Can Use From Phl's Stock World


Financial Markets and Economy

What the Supreme Court’s fixes for retirement savings may do to your 401(k) (Market Watch)

There’s no denying the effect that fees have on investments. While the difference between a fee of 0.5% and 0.25% looks tiny on paper, apply it to an index fund over a quarter-century or more of investing and let the effects of compounding work on it and you can easily see a worker winding up with tens of thousands of dollars less on account at retirement.

So it’s easy to see how and why the case protects workers and retirement savers.

The potential problems from the ruling are much harder to see, but they’re just beneath the surface now and likely to surface a...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

King Dollar & Crude Oil reversing ST trends, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.


King Dollar and Crude Oil have been have had little correlation over the past year, as each has traded in pretty much opposite directions.

Over the past 9 months King Dollar has had a historical rally and the opposite is true for Crude Oil.

Of late Crude hit its 23% Fibonacci resistance line, based upon last summers weekly closing highs and weekly closing low on 3/13/15.

Joe Friday just the facts….Crude oil is making an attempt to break short-term steep rising support this week and King Dollar is attempting to break short-term steep falling resistance.

Crude oil just experienced its 7th largest 2-month rally in its...

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Big Pharma's Business Model is Changing

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Understanding the new normal of a business model is key to the success of any company.  The managment of companies need to adapt to the changing demand, but first they must recognize what changes are taking place.  Big Pharma's business model is changing rapidly, and much like the airline industry, there will be but a handful of pharma companies left at the end of this path.

Most Big Pharma companies have traditionally done everything from research and development (R&D) through to commercialisation themselves. Research was proprietary, and diseases were cherry picked on the back of academic research that was done using NIH grants.  This was in the heyday of research, where multiple companies had drugs for the same target (Mevocor, Zocor, Crestor, Lipitor), and could reap the rewards on multiple scales.  However, in the c...

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Sector Detector: Bullish technical picture appears to trump cautious fundamentals

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

By Scott Martindale

Stocks closed last week on a strong note, with the S&P 500 notching a new high, despite lackluster economic data and growth. I have been suggesting in previous articles that stocks appeared to be coiling for a significant move but that the ingredients were not yet in place for either a major breakout or a corrective selloff. However, bulls appear to be losing patience awaiting their next definitive catalyst, and the higher-likelihood upside move may now be underway. Yet despite the bullish technical picture, this week’s fundamentals-based Outlook rankings look even more defensive.

In this weekly update, I give ...

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Digital Currencies

Nasdaq's bitcoin plan will provide a real test of bitcoin hype


Nasdaq's bitcoin plan will provide a real test of bitcoin hype



Bitcoin, the virtual digital currency, has been called the future of banking, a dangerous fad, and almost everything in between, but we're finally about to get some solid data to help settle the debate.

On Monday, the Nasdaq (NDAQ) stock exchange said it would ...

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Market Shadows

Kimble Charts: US Dollar

Which way from here?

Chris Kimble likes the idea of shorting the US dollar if it bounces higher. Phil's likes the dollar better long here. These views are not inconsistent, actually, the dollar could bounce and drop again. We'll be watching. 


Phil writes:  If the Fed begins to tighten OR if Greece defaults OR if China begins to fall apart OR if Japan begins to unwind, then the Dollar could move 10% higher.  Without any of those things happening – you still have the Fed pursuing a relatively stronger currency policy than the rest of the G8.  So, if anything, I think the pressure should be up, not down.  


UNLESS that 95 line does ultimately fail (as opposed to this being bullish consolidation at the prior breakout point), then I'd prefer to sell the UUP Jan $25 puts for $0.85 and buy the Sept $24 call...

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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 


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Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene


The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

Thank you for you time!

FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites

About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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