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Tricky Tuesday – Fed Funds Fake EOQ

6-30-2014 6-10-45 PM Fixed RateThank you Fed may we have another?

And, by another, I mean another $340Bn that the Fed paid out to their Bankster buddies in "Reverse Repo" purchases at the end of the month.  That's right, the Fed essentially bought THE ENTIRE STOCK MARKET (in terms of transaction value) from the banks over the last few days of June and THAT injection of cash is how they kept the rally going into the end of the quarter.  

As you can see from the NY Fed's own chart (via Dave Fry and Zero Hedge), this kind of charity buying isn't unusual for the Fed – more like Standard Operating Procedure to inflate equity prices into the end of each quarter.  Does it work?  Sure, look at the results:

As you can see - as the market gets more and more expensive, it takes more and more money to push it higher.  Also note the Fed tweaked (hopefully not twerked – there's an image of Yellen I don't want burned in my mind!) their timing to move it close and closer to the very last day, to maximize their bang for the buck.  

SPX WEEKLYUNFORTUNATELY, as you can see from the S&P chart above, these effects are short-term and demand a correction in the not too distant future. 

What's very interesting is that our stimulus theory is still holding up.  We developed this back in 2012, through observation of the effect of Central Banksters market meddling on Global Equities and it turns out that $10Bn per quarter buys 1 S&P point.  Look how perfectly that aligns on the chart!  

Bill Dudley, New York Fed president, warned last month that if use of the repo facility were to grow too quickly it might “result in a large amount of disintermediation out of banks through money market funds and other financial intermediaries into the facility. This could encourage further enlargement of the shadow banking system.”

Hey, a little enlargement of the Shadow Banking system never hurt anyone, did it China?  China, in fact, also pitched in with more stimulus of their own by changing the calculations they use to determine loan to deposit ratios for their banks.  As of today, Chinese Banks can include negotiable CDs they sold to companies or individuals as assets and they can EXCLUDE loans made to small businesess and municipalities that are backed by bonds (even though a record number of those bonds are defaulting).  

This is another ‘targeted stimulus’ policy conducted by the Chinese authorities to help the economy regain momentum,” Zhou Hao, a Shanghai-based economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., wrote in an e-mail yesterday. “The new loans extended by the Chinese commercial banks in the next few months will be significantly bigger compared with the same period of last year.”  

FXI WEEKLYZhou estimates total lending in China will exceed 10Tn Yuan ($1.6Tn) in 2014, 12% more than last year’s 8.9Tn Yuan.  Bank of America estimated that about 1Tn Yuan of existing loans may be excluded when calculating the ratios following this week’s change.  

If the downward pressure on the economy intensifies in the second half of the year, the government may take other easing measures,” said Guotai Junan’s Cao. “Maybe another round of targeted cuts in reserve requirement ratios.”

Great – MORE FREE MONEY!!!  So, we can't really be bearish – even though China's economy is being propped up by constantly lowering bank requirements to paper over all the loans that are turning sour.  Their ingenious solution – make more loans!  Draghi has gone for the bazooka in Europe, Kuroda is simply a madman in Japan, Carney is GS's bag boy in the UK and Yellen makes Bernanke look like a hawk – how can you possibly fight this madness?  

Tread the road cross the abyss

Take a look down at the madness

When the flames have their season

Will you hold to your reason

Loaded down with your talents

Can you still keep your balance

Can you live on a knife-edge?

Let's enjoy it while it lasts!  

 


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  1. Good Morning all and happy July 1 from the cradle of liberty here in Philadelphia! I couldn't help notice the comment made by a member after the ridiculous supreme court ruling that recognizes corporations as individuals with religious rights, that said "it returns the country to the biblical values on which it was founded". I have always been taught that this country was founded by people who were seeking religious freedom, and to insure that, we were to separate Church and State. In my understanding of that concept, religion and biblical values have no place in our government or laws. By granting corporations the right to discriminate based on religious beliefs, it opens the door for local governments to do the same. I imagine some town (probably in the middle somewhere) incorporating with a decree that only fundamentalist Christians will be allowed to hold office and vote within city limits. A slippery slope indeed!

    Back to business. Phil you keep comparing what is going on now to 2007. Are you predicting a 2008 type drop in our near future? Or, to quote you at your sarcastic best,"is something different this time"? 


  2. Oil Lines

    R3 – 107.09
    R2 – 106.41
    R1 – 106.01
    PP – 105.33
    S1 – 104.93
    S2 – 104.25
    S3 – 103.85


  3. SCOTUS reax:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/dana-milbank-in-hobby-lobby-ruling-the-supreme-court-uses-a-fiction/2014/06/30/37663c72-009b-11e4-8572-4b1b969b6322_story.html

    In its last day in session, the high court not only affirmed corporate personhood but expanded the human rights of corporations, who by some measures enjoy more protections than mortals — or “natural persons,” as the court calls the type of people who do not incorporate in Delaware. In 2010, the court ruled that corporations are people for the purposes of making unrestricted political contributions. Now, the court has decided that some corporations have religious beliefs, just like other people.


  4.  

    NFLX

    447.50

    445.00

    442.50

    440.00

    437.50

    10a

    12p

    2p

    4p

    6p

     

     

    NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Shares of Netflix Inc. NFLX +3.61% rose 4.1% premarket Tuesday after Goldman Sachs equity analysts upgraded the stock to a buy, from neutral. The analysts, led by Heath Terry, said the streaming media company will "drive sustained outperformance," as "subscriber growth will continue to exceed expectations." The analysts noted that Netflix's addressable audience of subscribers will more than double as the company adds new markets. Goldman raised its price target to $590 from $380. The stock traded at $458.50. 



  5. Good morning!  

    More than anything else, Craigs, the makeup of the Supreme Court has more of an effect on our lives than any individual President or party in power.  This court has empowered corporations, dismantled unions and rolled women's rights back 40 years – all in one week!  And that's with a 5-4 conservative majority.  Ginsburg is 81 and Breyer is 75 and if we get a GOP Senate, there's no way they'll confirm a liberal replacement for either one of them and if, God forbid, we get a Republican President next and they get to replace one or two more judges – then the direction of this country for the next 20 years will be an extreme right turn!  

    The funniest thing (in a scary way) is that Conservative Republicans think this court is way too liberal:

    I want to start an anti-Koch Super-Pac and call it Koch Blockers!  How do we get that going.  Colbert did it last elections – might be fun…

    Futures shorts not getting confirmation, so game off for the moment at 16,791, 3,854 and 1,194.3.  Oil $105.84 but /NKD is playable for a drop at 15,400 but very tight stops above.  Dollar still weak at 79.85 and Euro rejected at $1.37.

    Different/Craigs – In 2007-8 the banks were covering up a massive hole in their balance sheets caused by irresponsible real-estate lending.  To a large extent, we've been back-filling that hole with $13Tn in stimulus (Fed and Government) since then but still we don't know how deep the hole really was.  Figure there are 110M homes in the US and 70M have mortgages at an average of $200,000 (and we don't have to worry about skew at the high end because those people are fine) so that's $14Tn in home loans so certainly that is all fine by now. 

    Student loans we know are over $1Tn now with about $200Bn over 90 days due (technical default) but that's a drop in the bucket and the Fed has refinanced any decent-sized company at 3-4% and they've used that money to buy all the smaller, distressed companies to further cement their monopoly and crush the last vestiges of the middle class – all according to plan.  

    So this time is different and I expect a normal market correction of 10-20%, not a crash and, unless the Fed is really caught with their pants down, probably only 10%.  Keep in mind that, in 2008/9, we clearly went down BELOW fair value anyway, to S&P 800.  I contended then that the fair value of the S&P – given those conditions at the time – was 1,200.  With all the subsequent money poured into the system plus 6 years of inflation and normal global GDP growth of 3% a year (= over 20% more on 6 compounded years), then the S&P is easily floored at 1,600 now and there's nothing surprising about being in the high end of the 20% range up from there (1,920).  

    If the monetary policies continue to be easy and the economy doesn't nose-dive, then we can certainly bump up the base to the mid-point of that range at 1,760 and, on the Big Chart, we took the Dollar weakness into account as well as assuming continued global easing and that gave us 1,850 as the Must Hold on the S&P with 1,665 as the – 10% line – if THAT fails (along with our other -10% lines), then our bullish long-term premise is shot and we have deeper problems than I thought – but I don't think so. 

    That's why we're not too bullish in the STP and why we keep BUYBUYBUYing in the LTP and Income Portfolios.  


  6. So my take on the reverse repo gambit is, buy the dip.  Assuming, of course, there is one.


  7. Good article about income inequality:

    http://qz.com/226997/the-problem-is-not-so-much-inequality-but-all-the-dubious-ways-the-rich-got-richer/

    Although people complain a lot about wealth and income inequality, I suspect that a great deal of that anger comes from how the rich made their fortunes. An ideal version of capitalism—the version in the economic models taught in introductory economics classes around the world—would make it impossible to get rich without doing great good for society. There are certainly areas where doing great good for society is not understood and therefore not appreciated. But there are also many areas where the wrong things are rewarded because of market distortions, or where the government piles on rewards beyond those that are needed.

    Among market distortions, lies and deception are a key category. But it is also a problem that the legal remedies available to deal with lies and deception are not matched by any ability to bring a legal tort claim for, say, raising the planet’s temperature by burning coal.


  8. Good Morning!


  9. "Koch Blockers"

     

    Good one Phil – Where do I send the check?  :)


  10. Phil/AAPL, I have 2015 spread: bought 21 78.57 calls at 9.48, now 15.72. Sold 21 calls at 3.62, now 8.10. Sold 21 78.57 puts at 1.89, now 1.77 – all fine. The other day I sold 21 Sept 100 calls at 1.26, now 1.88. I  remember you saying when down 30% its time to roll. My opinion is keep the hedge as it is for now. What is your opinion. Thanks


  11. 1020…email me…I think I have yours….my wife is putting together something I think you all would be interested in for our "get to know a district" series….. :)


  12. GPRO, The newest Momo, has gone ballistic since its IPO.  Go figure.


  13. EZCH, my sleeper stock for 2014, announces an acquisition.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ezchip-acquire-tilera-leader-high-120000927.html


  14. Line looking good after buying some Devon stuff


  15. Holy cow, Dow just spiked up 50 points.  That's why we get out of Futures trades when we don't get our confirmations!  

    RUT testing 1,200 now – this will be exciting.  Don't forget, these are vacation volumes – total BS.  

    SPY 5 MINUTE

    NYSI DAILY

    NFLX/Jabob – Let's save that quote and try to actually hold them accountable at earnings. 

    Productivity/StJ – That's nothing compared to FB and Twitter every day.  

    Dip/Sibe – Yes, the repo deals last 7 days and then the banks have to pay them back so we can assume the banks used the money to buy stocks into EOQ and are now back to the normal pump at the open (check plus this morning) and then dump the rest of the day.  

    This is the excuse for taking Global markets up this morning – a blip higher in China PMI:

    All 51 means is it's one point over flat (no longer contracting) – that's not the same thing as robust growth.  That's 2 full years of mostly contracting and now one month with expansion just one point over zero (and that's RELATIVE to the previous contraction!).  I never cease to be amazed at how little people question these things as the MSM presents them….

    Koch Blockers/1020 – I think we can get a ton of $100 donations if we just have a cool logo and some buttons and bumper stickers for donors.  

    AAPL/Jomp – Let's say it's time to consider rolling.  Do you really think AAPL will break over $100 and, if it does, are you not prepared to add to your long position or roll the calls along over time?  If not, then why did you sell so many in the first place?  AAPL is at $95 and you sold at the bottom of the channel it's in and now it's back NEAR the top of the channel – if you are going to freak out and panic if AAPL goes back to $95, which is up $1.50 and will move your short Sept $100 calls (now $2 with a .30 delta) up another .45 to $2.45ish – then by all means get out now or, in the very least (when in doubt) – buy back half so you can relax.  

    Your mistake was selling $100s because they were "out of the money" but the .30 delta vs a $1.89 sale means you lose 20% on a $1 move up in AAPL – no room at all to be wrong there if you don't have conviction about the sale, is there?  If you didn't have conviction, you would have been better off selling 10 of the Sept $92.50 calls for $3 ($3,000) at last week's low and now they are $4.85 ($4,850) for an $1,850 loss but still $3 of premium because you can roll those to 2x the Oct $100.71s (now $2.45) but only once the premium is 75% gone and, if AAPL did go lower, you have room to sell more.  Of course your short $100s can be rolled even to the same spot but, as you can see, it's a bit less flexible since you already fully covered.

    This is why we haven't sold short AAPL calls though – we think $100 is a fair price, so why cover before it gets there at least?  

    GPRO/Albo – People love those things and people then buy stocks of things they love.  It's a good formula.  As soon as they have a knock-off competitor, I'll be happy to short them. 

    EZCH/Albo – I just can't get EZ Check out of my head when I see that symbol.  

    LINE/Burr – Very important thing to remember about them, they've changed the nature of their business so no longer an LNG play.  Good move by them while they had cash to deploy.  Also an indication that this LNG thing is not going as well as people hoped.  

    Oil over $106, RUT over 1,200.  /YM testing 16,450, that's a good line.  

    June ISM 55.3 about what was expected. 

    F and GM sales not too exciting.  F down 5.8%, GM up 1%, Chrysler up 9.2%.  How the hell is GM up with all this bad press?  Funny think is GM sold 267,461 cars but are recalling 26,000,000 cars – 100 months worth of sales!  

    If THAT doesn't matter to the stock's price – what on Earth is going to bother stocks that aren't actively murdering people while covering up the evidence?  


  16. Sorry, that was /YM 16,850 that's worth a poke shorting (as is /TF 1,200 with tight stops).  


  17. Oil testing $106 for the brave shorters (/CL).  


  18. The TSLA JUL 250/260 BCS is only $2. With AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, PCLN exploding upwards and TSLA left behind, I'm thinking that pumpers will be rotating in Musk's direction next…


  19. Koch Blockers/Phil. Colbert's run was entertaining, but do you remember Pat Paulsen's presidential candidacy? He was on the Smother Brothers show, which was a few years ago.


  20. FDX – surprisingly strong given what we're to believe about the global economy.


  21. Maybe GM is being propped up because they are trying to fix the problems? And what do you buy when you need some wheels? Not much for foreign jobs-have a BMW sitting in the yard now which is horrendous to keep running-good gas mileage, but that's it. Not crazy about F either-we are tall people and need comfortable seats. Tahoe's are super, but gas mileage sucks & now I just don't trust GM at all. I'll never forget those F Pinto's exploding when they got hit in the rear-really unforgettable.


  22. Markets Open Higher

    09:33 AM ET

    • Dow +0.55% to 16,918.50. S&P +0.31% to 1,966.30. Nasdaq +0.49% to 4,429.82.
    • Treasurys: 30-year -0.23%. 10-yr -0.12%. 5-yr -0.08%.
    • Commodities: Crude +0.43% to $105.83. Gold +0.63% to $1,330.30.
    • Currencies: Euro -0.03% vs. dollar. Yen +0.2%. Pound -0.22%.


  23. On the hour

    10:00 AM ET

    • Dow +0.58%.
    • 10-yr -0.07%.
    • Euro -0.04% vs. dollar.
    • Crude +0.6% to $106.00.
    • Gold +0.51% to $1,328.80.


  24. Tuesday’s economic calendar

    12:00 AM ET


  25. ICSC Retail Store Sales growth continues

    07:54 AM ET

    • ICSC Retail Store Sales: +1% W/W, vs. +2% last week.
    • +4.6% Y/Y vs. +4.1% last week.
    • “With exception of grocery stores, there is strength across all retail groups.”.


  26. Redbook Chain Store Sales

    09:06 AM ET


  27. June US Manufacturing PMI shows strongest improvement for over four years

    09:47 AM ET


  28. I traded Tsla successfully last winter when I was in the Carribean. Sat looking over the ocean trading it & Wynn. Made super good $; however, the day traders have changed their modis operandi & it isn't running in the channels. I tried twice since & got burned so now I don't touch them.


  29. Construction Spending edges up 0.1%

    10:01 AM ET

    • May Construction Spending: +0.1% M/M to $956.1M, vs. +0.5% expected, +0.8% (revised from +0.2%) prior.
    • Private construction spend: $682.8M
    • Public construction spend: $273.3M


  30. June ISM Manufacturing Index

    10:01 AM ET


  31. Dark pool fine for Goldman

    10:04 AM ET · GS

    • Finra fines Goldman Sachs (GS -0.3%) $800K for not having properly designed policies to prevent trade-throughs of protected quotes in NMS stocks from November 2008 through August 2011 in connection with its Sigma-X dark pool.
    • In English, rules generally require trading systems trade at the best-quoted prices or route orders to those quoting the best prices. An investigation found from July 29, 2011 to August 9, 2011 there were more than 395K transactions executed in Sigma-X where the execution “traded through” to an inferior price.
    • During this time, Goldman was unaware this as happening. Goldman has since returned $1.67M to injured clients.
    • Previously: NY AG reportedly probing dark pools


  32. China to spend over $50B on railways

    10:14 AM ET · CHIQ

    • In a move to transform its transportation sector, China will spend $52.7B on 14 railway projects, adding 3,700 kilometers of new track.
    • China abolished the Ministry of Railways in March to form the China Railway Corporation. The latter has already put 5,586 kilometers of rail lines into use.
    • More than 100,000 kilometers of railway were in operation in China at the end of 2013. High speed trains accounted for 10% of the used track.
    • ETFs: CHIQ, CHXX, CHIM, KFYP


  33. More on ISM Manufacturing

    10:20 AM ET · TLT


  34. Chesapeake -6.6% as drilling spinoff advances in trading debut

    10:27 AM ET · CHK

    • Chesapeake Energy (CHK -6.6%) spinoff Seventy Seven Energy (SSE) advances nearly 4% in its first day of trading as a stand-alone company.
    • SSE, whose board includes a former CIA executive director and Sunoco’s former refining chief, operates drilling rigs, fracking equipment and wastewater trucks from the Rocky Mountains to Appalachia.
    • CHK shareholders received one share of SSE for every 14 CHK shares they owned.


  35. Toyota June U.S. sales

    10:17 AM ET · TM

    • Toyota (TM) unit sales +3.3% to 201,714 on an unadjusted basis to just slightly miss the 3.5% gain that analysts forecast.
    • The automaker will release full sales details by model later in the day.


  36. EZchip buying NPU vendor Tilera for up to $130M

    10:03 AM ET · EZCH

    • EZchip (EZCH +1.6%) is paying $50M up-front, and up to $80M in performance earn-outs, to buy Tilera. The deal is expected to close in Q3.
    • Tilera’s network processors (NPUs) pack dozens of cores that can be programmed to handle tasks well-suited to parallel processing. The company launched a 72-core NPU (offered through a PCIe card) last year, and has been prepping a chip with over 100 cores.
    • Whereas EZchip’s NPUs are generally used in edge/access routers within carrier networks, Tilera’s are often used in data center networking, security, and video appliances, and also act as co-processors within x86 servers. Tilera’s rivals include Intel, Cavium, Broadcom, and Marvell.
    • EZchip declares the deal doubles its addressable market to $2B, and adds 100+ customers. The purchase is expected to be slightly dilutive to 2014 EPS, and accretive to 2015 EPS.
    • Tilera CEO Devesh Garg will become the head of EZchip’s U.S. ops. EZchip predicts pairing its strengths with Tilera’s will yield “new multi-core CPUs that uniquely integrate powerful networking capabilities with the highest number of processor cores addressing a wide range of applications and market segments.”


  37. Volkswagen June U.S. sales

    10:01 AM ET · VLKAY

    • Volkswagen (VLKAY) unit sales -22.0% to 28,827 vs. -4.3% expected.
    • Total Jetta sales were off 18.4%, while Passat sales fell 33.6% compared to a year ago.
    • TDI clean diesel models accounted for over 22% of the automaker’s sales during the month.


  38. More on General Motors’ U.S. sales

    09:56 AM ET · GM

    • General Motors (GM +1.5%) cruised past estimates for June sales despite two fewer selling days during the month and a barrage of negative press tied to the company’s broad ignition switch recall.
    • Sales by brand: Chevrolet -2.5% to 188,567; GMC +10.6% to 43,550; Buick +18.4% to 21,403; Cadillac +0.1% to 13,941.
    • Sales by model: Cadillac ATS -31.8% to 2,358; Buick Enclave +4.7% to 6,202; Chevrolet Cruze -20.9% to 26,008; Chevrolet Silverado/C/K Pickup +0.6% to 43,519; Chevrolet Equinox -8.0% to 21,748; GMC Sierra -7.0% to 15,406.
    • The automaker ended the month with 72 days supply at 798,532 units, compared to 77 days a month ago.


  39. More on Ford’s U.S. sales

    09:47 AM ET · F

    • Ford (F -0.8%) saw car sales drop 1.4% in June to 81,198 while truck sales fell 8.6% to 78,081.
    • Sales growth by brand: Ford -5.9% to 214,793; Lincoln -2.7% to 7,271.
    • Sales growth by model: Ford Fusion +13.5% to 27,604; Ford Fiesta -31.1% to 6,450; Ford F-Series -11% to 60.560; Ford Escape -12.5% to 25,110; Lincoln MKZ -6.0% to 2,990.


  40. Ford June U.S. sales

    09:41 AM ET · F

    • Ford (F) unit sales -5.8% to 222,064 after analysts had forecast a decline of 6.6% for the month.
    • Retail sales for the automaker fell off 5% in June to 145,989 vehicles sold.
    • Shares of Ford (F) are down 0.1% in early action.


  41. Twitter replaces CFO with Goldman tech banker

    09:27 AM ET · TWTR

    • Mike Gupta, Twitter’s (TWTR) CFO since Dec. 2012, is being moved over to the role of SVP, Strategic Investments. He’s being replaced as CFO by leading Goldman tech banker and former NFL CFO Anthony Noto. (8-K)
    • Noto helped take Twitter public last year, and has also handled many other high-profile tech IPOs. His hiring comes 2 weeks after COO Ali Rowghani resigned, reportedly amid pressure over slowing growth and disagreements about product team control.
    • TWTR +2.6% premarket.
    • Yesterday: Twitter buys ad retargeting startup TapCommerce


  42. China manufacturing data lifts U.S. stock futures

    09:25 AM ET

    • The stock market is on track for a positive start to Q3′s first trading day, getting a lift from upbeat data on China’s manufacturing sector; S&P and Dow +0.3%, Nasdaq +0.4%.
    • After a severe winter in the U.S. and a slowdown in China in H1 had dimmed investors’ hopes for global growth, today’s release of two gauges of Chinese manufacturing activity indicating expansion is seen as cause for optimism.
    • Less positively, data showed that manufacturing activity in the euro zone slid to a seven-month low in June.
    • European markets are higher across the board; in Asia, Japan’s Nikkei enjoyed a strong session (+1.1%) while China’s Shanghai Composite (+0.1%) was little changed.
    • Treasury prices sit near their lows, with the 10-year yield rising 2 bps at 2.55%.
    • Still ahead: PMI manufacturing, ISM manufacturing, construction spending, U.S. auto sales.


  43. Xerox lower on another valuation-driven downgrade

    09:18 AM ET · XRX

    • 5 days after Argus downgraded Xerox (XRX) on account of valuation, Citi has done the same. The firm’s PT remains at $13.
    • XRX -1.3% premarket.


  44. Nabors Industries +2.2% following two upgrades

    09:14 AM ET · NBR

    • Nabors Industries (NBR) +2.2% premarket after the oil driller is upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Raymond James and to Overweight from Equal Weight at Stephens.
    • The upgrades follow last week’s agreement to merge its pressure pumping and well servicing businesses with C&J Energy, which is expected to be accretive to NBR’s margins and accelerate investment into the core drilling businesses.
    • The move represents a large step in NBR’s restructuring effort, which will allow NBR to become a focused land driller and lower its net debt/capitalization ratio to 28% from 34%, the firms say.


  45. CB&I receives three new contracts totaling over $200M

    09:02 AM ET · CBI

    • Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI) has announced three new contracts totaling over $200M:
    • The first contract worth over $90M, will provide technology licenses, front end engineering and design services for NefteGazIndustriya’s Afipsky Oil Refinery in Russia.
    • CB&I’s second contract is valued at $110M, and has been awarded by an unnamed leader in the global chemicals industry for industrial services at its multiple chemical facilities throughout the U.S.
    • LSB Industries’ (LXU) subsidiary, El Dorado Ammonia, awarded CB&I with its last contract, to engineer and construct a storage tank for LSB’s ammonia plant expansion project in Arkansas.


  46. Sinopec retail fuel stake open to domestic and foreign investors

    08:57 AM ET · SNP

    • Sinopec (SNP) says it would consider both domestic and overseas investors when selling a minority stake in its retail fuel business, which made a net profit of 25.1B yuan ($4B) last year.
    • SNP does not disclose a timetable for the sale, but it rules out a public offering of shares and says it would conduct the partial sale of the retail fuel business through “multiple rounds of selection and competitive negotiation.”
    • The retail subsidiary includes more than 30K gasoline stations and the 23K convenience stores that accompany them.


  47. Report: Petrobras to offer $2B in supply contracts

    08:31 AM ET · PBR

    • Petrobras (PBR) is set to offer more than $2B in drilling service contracts, some under revised terms after suppliers complained about the original agreements, according to a Bloomberg report.
    • PBR is said to be reissuing the contracts after a reduction in the company’s rig fleet eroded suppliers’ margins, and would be offering wireline and well completion contracts too.
    • Halliburton (HAL), which has said service companies in Brazil were seeking relief and that deepwater drilling activity was below expectations, reportedly would participate in the new contracts, as would Baker Hughes (BHI) and Schlumberger (SLB).


  48. Analysis: Michael Kors juggernaut to roll on

    08:26 AM ET · KORS

    • Piper Jaffray reiterates its bullish view on Michael Kors (KORS) after meeting with management and factoring in channel checks.
    • The investment firm thinks MK comp sales growth is tracking above 20% globally and sees the beat-and-raise pattern still in play.
    • Piper has a $115 price target on the stock.
    • KORS +0.5% premarket to $89.11.


  49. Saudi phosphate project gets $5B financing deal

    08:20 AM ET · MOS

    • Saudi Arabia’s Ma’aden says it signed a $5B financing deal with commercial banks and a state-owned investment fund to back its $7.5B phosphate production project in the country.
    • The project is a joint venture between Ma’aden, Saudi Basic Industries Corp. and Mosaic (MOS), and is part of Saudi state efforts to create a stronger industrial base beyond oil refining and export.
    • The project will have a production capacity of 16M metric tons/year of phosphate concentrate, sulphuric acid, phosphoric acid, as well as plants to produce calcium monophosphate and calcium diphosphate; phosphate production expected to start in late 2016.


  50. AmEx completes global business travel JV

    08:15 AM ET · AXP

    • AXP and an investor group led by Certares each have a 50% stake in American Express Global Business Travel, and today the company adds a few more names to its C-suite.
    • The investors also announce a $900M capital infusion to invest in technology, data & insights, global expansion, and partnerships.
    • Source: Press Release


  51. More on Chrysler’s U.S. sales

    08:13 AM ET · FIATY

    • Chrysler (FIATY) leaned on a big jump in truck sales to record its best sales tally ever in June.
    • Brand sales growth: Fiat +11%; Chrysler -12%; Jeep +28%; Dodge +1%; Ram +14%.
    • Model sales growth: Chrysler Town & Country +24%; Jeep Wrangler +2%; Jeep Grand Cherokee -9%; Dodge Caravan +22%; Ram P/U +12%.
    • Chrysler ended the month with a 72 days supply of inventory at 509.7K units.


  52. Chrysler June U.S. sales

    08:08 AM ET · FIATY

    • Chrysler’s (FIATY) unit sales +9.2% to 171K vs. the consensus estimate for a 5.9% increase.
    • Jeep brand sales increased 28%.
    • Ram pickup trucks sales rose 12%.
    • The automaker recorded the impressive gains with two less selling days than a year ago.


  53. Food manufacturers dabble with online distribution

    07:58 AM ET · LRLCF

    • Food manufacturers continue to dabble with selling products through their own e-commerce sites with a heightened focus on how the industry may evolve in the future.
    • L’Oreal (LRLCF), Procter & Gamble (PG), and Nestle (NSRGY, NSRGF) each sell online to consumers in niche areas.
    • What to watch: The symbiotic relationship between Amazon and the food industry is a giant wildcard in the mix. Most food companies aren’t prepared to sell online at scale.


  54. Positive Phase 2 results for Agenus brain cancer vaccine

    07:55 AM ET · AGEN

    • Shares of Agenus (AGEN) are up 15% premarket on modest volume in response to its report of positive results in a 46-patient Phase 2 clinical trial evaluating the safety and efficacy of its Prophage autologous cancer vaccine in patients with newly-diagnosed glioblastoma multiforme (GBM). In the study, 50% of patients lived for two years. This is significant because most patients with GBM die within one year. Prophage patients demonstrated a median overall survival of ~24 months. 33% of patients remain alive at 24 months and continue to be followed for survival. Median progression-free survival was almost 18 months which is 2 – 3x longer than patients treated with radiation and temozolomide alone. 22% of patients were alive without progression at 24 months and continue to be followed for survival.
    • The response to Prophage appeared to be more pronounced in patients with less expression of the checkpoint ligand PDL-1 on the white blood cells. This suggests that combining Prophage with PD-1 antagonists may make Prophage more effective in a greater percentage of GBM patients.


  55. KKR among those considering bid for Americana stake

    07:50 AM ET · KKR

    • Known an Americana, Kuwait Foods Co. is a Middle Eastern food manufacturer and a franchise operator of restaurants like KFC, TGI Friday’s, and Pizza Hut in MENA.
    • KKR is among the firms considering a bid for the stake of Americana’s largest shareholder, the Al-Kharafi family, reports Bloomberg. The bid could value the entire company at about $5B, according to sources. In Kuwait trading today, Americana shares rose 3.6%, valuing the company at $4.1B.


  56. Newmont files for arbitration over Indonesia mining export restrictions

    07:45 AM ET · NEM

    • Newmont Mining (NEM) files for international arbitration against Indonesia’s government seeking “interim, injunctive relief” from mining export restrictions.
    • The filing comes after NEM halted operations at its Batu Hijau copper mine and declared force majeure last month after the country banned ore exports in January and introduced controversial taxes on exports of mineral concentrates.
    • NEM and Freeport McMoRan (FCX), which control the two largest copper producers in Indonesia, say they should be exempt from the tax, which kicks in at 25% and rises to 60% in H2 2016 before a total concentrate export ban in 2017.


  57. Next step for Morgan Stanley: Pay cuts for advisers

    07:38 AM ET · MS

    • In the final and maybe most difficult step of CEO James Gorman’s drive to cut staffing costs across Morgan Stanley (MS), the bank is considering reductions in pay to its wealth managers, reports Reuters.
    • At the moment, writes reported Lauren Tara LaCapra, changes at the margin are being looked at like cutting pay for those brokers generating the smallest amount of revenue, and slashing the amount of money used to lure experienced rainmakers.
    • Cutting pay to brokers is more easily said than done because even mid-level advisers are in high demand and can jump ship, usually taking loyal customers with them.
    • Gorman has previously stated his goal of paying 55% or less of wealth management revenues to brokers vs. 60% today. A move that large would save $884M in costs next year.


  58. General Motors June U.S. sales

    09:38 AM ET · GM

    • General Motors (GM) unit sales +1.0% to 267,461 to mark a surprising result with expectations on record for a 6.3% decrease in the month.
    • Retail sales increased 1% in June.
    • Fleet sales gained 2%.
    • The automaker says transaction prices during June were in line with April and May. Higher prices on pickups and SUVs offset some declines with cars and crossovers.
    • GM +1.6% in early trading.


  59. Japanese unit of Novartis to face criminal charges over data manipulation

    07:35 AM ET · NVS

    • Novartis’ (NVS) wholly-owned Japanese subsidiary Novartis Pharma KK and former employee Nobuo Shiraishi will face criminal charges over allegations of data manipulation in promoting the blood pressure drug Diovan. Authorities say Mr. Shiraishi gave false data to researchers whose work was used in advertising. The company will be charged under the provision in the law that holds a company responsible for overseeing its employees.
    • Mr. Shiraishi faces a maximum penalty of up to two years in prison or a fine of up to 2M yen ($19,700) or both.


  60. Symantec -1.7% on BMO downgrade

    09:15 AM ET · SYMC

    • Citing growth challenges and the rally that has followed CEO Steve Bennett’s March firing, BMO has downgraded Symantec (SYMC) to Market Perform, albeit while raising its PT by $2 to $24.
    • Shares have been range-bound since mid-May, after rallying on reports of P-E interest and news of ValueAct Capital’s stake.


  61. Torrid pace for box office sales in China

    07:25 AM ET · TWX

    • Box office revenue in China is up 22% Y/Y to $2.16B for the first six months of the year as foreign films continue to outperform in the nation.
    • Hollywood films (TWX, FOXA, SNE, CMCSA, LGF, VIAB) now claim 52% market share in China.
    • The impressive tally only includes four days of contribution from Transformers: Age of Extinction which is smashing records in the nation.
    • IMAX (IMAX) is a major force in China with consumers well-adapted to the premium format.


  62. U.K. PMI rises to 7-month high

    07:21 AM ET · FXB

    • The pound is up to new multiyear highs at $1.7139 after the U.K. PMI unexpectedly rises to 57.5 in June from 57 the previous month. Forecasts were for a dip to 56.8. The New Orders subindex rose to 61 from 59.5%. The FTSE 100 is ahead 0.5%.
    • Markit’s Rob Dobson: “With levels of production surging higher, and order books swollen by a further upswing in demand from both domestic and overseas clients, job creation accelerated to its highest for over three years.”
    • ETFs: FXB, EWU, GBB, EWUS, FKU, DXPS, DBUK


  63. Rousing Goldman upgrade lifts Netflix, shares +3.5%

    07:19 AM ET · NFLX

    • Goldman Sachs upgrades Netflix (NFLX) to a Buy rating and assigns a price target of $590 to shares.
    • The investment firm sees scale coming into play or content acquisition costs as international growth takes off.
    • Higher average revenue per user tallies in the U.S. are also on the way for Netflix, predicts Goldman.
    • NFLX +3.5% premarket to $456.


  64. Hyundai June U.S. sales

    07:05 AM ET · HYMLF

    • Hyundai (HYMLF) unit sales +3.7% to 67,407 to beat the estimate for a 3.1% rise.
    • The automaker set a record for sales of the Sonata model with 23,672 units moved during the month.


  65. IMF authorizes Cyprus bailout payment

    05:15 AM ET

    • The International Monetary Fund has verified that Cyprus is heading in the right direction regarding the specified requirements under its bailout program. As a result, the country will receive an immediate payment of €84M ($114M).
    • The total bailout program from the IMF and EU totals €9B over the course of three years, and is aimed at helping Cyprus’s economy and financial system recover.


  66. Troubles at GM keep widening

    04:13 AM ET · GM

    • After another six recalls yesterday, the total amount of additional vehicles being taken back by GM (GM) will now be around 8.2M. The recalls were issued after another seven crashes and three deaths were linked to the ignition switch defect.
    • GM has now recalled more cars this year, than the entire U.S. industry did in 2013.
    • For the first half of this year, write-downs for the automaker are expected to total $2.5B.
    • GM +0.1% AH


  67. Emerging market bond sales soar

    03:45 AM ET · EMB

    • Emerging market bond sales have soared past analyst estimates for the first half of 2014, as investors flock to higher yields. $268B of bonds sold so far this year, compared to the $240B sold in the same period of 2013.
    • Due to a dovish Fed, U.S. yields have fallen this year to 2.5% from end-2013 levels of 3%. As a result, increased demand for higher yield has investors trading emerging market bonds despite geo-political risks.
    • ETFs: EMB, PCY, ELD, EMLC, EMCB, VWOB, EMCD, HYEM, EMHY, LEMB, EMAG, CEMB, EBND, PFEM, EMSH, SEMF, IEMF, LEMF


  68. Iraq to elect new leadership

    03:11 AM ET · GULF

    • The Iraqi parliament will today convene with the objective of establishing a new leader, and the hope of ending sectarian division causing violence and instability in the country. The first step will be to vote in a parliament speaker, who will then outline a proposed plan to select a prime minister within 45 days.
    • Current Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki will be eligible to run for a third term, although his handling of the current uprising in the country has cast many shadows on his leadership capabilities.
    • Yesterday, President Obama ordered another 200 troops to Iraq to protect American property and citizens, bringing the total U.S. troop count to 700. “This force will remain in Iraq until the security situation becomes such that it is no longer needed,” says Obama.
    • ETFs: GULF, MES


  69. Ukraine ceasefire ends with call to battle

    02:19 AM ET · RSX

    • The extended ceasefire agreement between the Ukrainian government and separatists has ended, with a new call from President Petro Poroshenko to “free our lands”. After a a four-way phone call with Vladimir Putin and German and French leaders, Poroshenko accused separatists for not staying on track with his proposed peace plan.
    • “We will attack and free our lands. The decision not to continue the ceasefire is our answer to terrorists, militants and marauders,” says Poroshenko. Negotiations between officials and rebel leaders collapsed this past week, with 27 Ukrainian servicemen being killed since the ceasefire began.
    • Due to its cooperation with Poroshenko’s peace efforts, Russia is likely not to face new sanctions.
    • ETFs: RSX, RUSL, RSXJ, ERUS, RUSS, RBL, RUDR


  70. Chrysler under fire

    02:40 AM ET · FIATY

    • Chrysler (FIATY) has widened its ignition switch recall, and is now taking back another 696k vehicles. The malfunction can cause the vehicle to shut off by itself while in motion, and adds to the 196k vehicles which were taken back in an earlier recall.
    • The U.S. safety agency is also investigating Chrysler trucks over an issue which may cause the rear axle to lock up or even disconnect. The issue seems to be caused by loose pinion nuts, and mostly affects truck models from 2005. In February 2013, the company recalled 370k vehicles for similar issues.
    • FIATY +0.2% AH


  71. BNP settles lawsuit with $8.9B fine, dollar clearing suspension

    01:59 AM ET · BNPQF

    • After pleading guilty to two criminal charges of falsifying business records and conspiracy, BNP Paribas (BNPQF) is settling its “sanctions lawsuit” for $8.9B. As part of the settlement, the bank will also terminate 13 senior execs.
    • BNP Paribas has also agreed to suspend parts of its U.S. dollar clearing operations for one year. The ban will start on January 1, 2015, and will greatly impact the bank’s oil and gas finance business.


  72. Oracle raises $10B in debt

    12:29 AM ET · ORCL

    • A week after announcing a $5.3B deal to buy Micron, Oracle (ORCL) has sold $10B in debt. Maturity dates range from 3 years to 30. 5-year notes yield just 2.3%, and 30-year notes 4.5%. The sale is the 2nd-largest dollar-denominated corporate bond offering in 2014, behind Apple’s $12B April offering.
    • Aside from financing the Micros deal, there’s a good chance some of the funds will be used on buybacks. Oracle spent $2B on buybacks in both the February and May quarters.
    • The software giant had $38.8B in cash/investments at the end of May (much of it offshore), and $24.2B in debt.


  73. Microsoft roundup: Smartwatch, Windows 9, Windows Phone

    Yesterday, 11:06 PM ET · MSFT

    • Microsoft’s (MSFT) rumored smartwatch will contain 11 sensors and sport “a slim band design that is said to resemble a thinner, flatter version of the Nike FuelBand,” a source tells Tom’s Hardware.
    • The device is also said to be iOS/Android-friendly – Forbes previously reported something similar – and to (curiously) have a display “on the inside of the wrist as opposed to the outside.” An October launch is targeted.
    • Google showed off its Android Wear smartwatch platform last week at I/O – Samsung, LG, and Motorola are among the initial backers – and Apple is widely expected to launch an iWatch (or two) this fall. Wear only works with Android devices for now, and Apple has a long history of limiting support for non-Apple hardware.
    • ZDNet’s Mary-Jo Foley reports the next major version of Windows – codenamed Threshold, expected to be called Windows 9 – will “look and work differently based on hardware type,” in order to appease keyboard/mouse users unhappy with Win. 8′s changes. The traditional Windows desktop UI will be placed “front and center” on regular PCs; 2-in-1 devices will switch between desktop and Metro modes, and phones/tablets will be Metro-only.
    • As indicated at the BUILD conference, the Start menu will return, replete with embedded live tiles, and users will be able to run Metro-style apps in desktop windows. A public preview is expected this fall ahead of a spring 2015 launch.
    • Kantar Worldpanel’s numbers (.pdf) for the March-May period suggest Windows Phone continues to struggle in the U.S. (3.8% smartphone share, -90 bps Y/Y), China (0.6% share, -240 bps), and Japan (1.4% share, +90 bps). It’s faring a little better in the top 5 EU markets (8.1% share, +100 bps).


  74. Barclays eyes strong transport sector; upgrades CN Rail, Norfolk Southern

    Yesterday, 06:53 PM ET · UNP

    • Barclays upgrades its view of the transportation sector to positive, as an improving fundamental backdrop is set to drive meaningful earnings expansion across a broad array of transport companies.
    • Among signs of improving fundamentals: rail volume up 7%, U.S. trucking demand up 3%-4%, small package markets up 5%, and global trade up 5%-6% – all implying strong industrial demand.
    • Sector valuations are the highest since the 2009 recession and has outperformed YTD, but with Q2 results ripe to usher in more bullish sentiment in the space, Barclays expects valuations could have further to run as markets discount a more robust outlook.
    • The firm’s top recommendations in sector are UNP, UPS, SWFT, CP and JBHT, while also upgrading CNI and NSC to Overweight, adding more exposure to the favorable North American rail vertical.
    • ETFs: IYT, XTN.


  75. TransCanada must recertify South Dakota pipeline permit, regulator says

    Yesterday, 06:35 PM ET · TRP

    • TransCanada (TRP) faces a new regulatory hurdle and likely additional legal challenges in its effort to build the Keystone XL pipeline with the news it will now have to recertify the Alberta-to-Nebraska conduit where it passes through South Dakota.
    • The state approved the project in 2010, and while the permit has not expired, TRP needs to “certify that the conditions placed upon the pipeline” by the South Dakota Public Utilities Commission are all still valid and that the company will meet all of those conditions.
    • Anti-pipeline group Bold Nebraska, for one, says it plans to take advantage of the re-certification process to challenge the permit on grounds of tribal rights, water protection and the need to avoid the Sandhills that reach into South Dakota.


  76. Who has more clout, Barclay's downgrades NFLX and it's down $2, GS upgrades them and up $25.


  77. FHFA report notes risks of nonbank servicers

    10:39 AM ET · FNMA

    • Noting some nonbank servicers use short-term funding to buy MSRs which may only pay off after a lot of long-term work the Office of Inspector General says the practice can jeopardize not just the companies’ operations, but also Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC) which guarantee the loans.
    • The report notes nonbank servicers held 17% of he MSR market at the end of 2013, up from 9% a year earlier, and the boosted share is testing their ability to handle the loans. No particular servicer is named in the report, but those in the industry include Ocwen (OCN -1.9%), Nationstar (NSM -2.6%), Walter Investment (WAC -0.8%), New Residential (NRZ +0.3%), Home Loan Serviing (HLSS +0.9%), and PennyMac Financial Services (PFSI +0.5%).
    • The report cites one example in which the GSEs found a servicer didn’t have sufficient infrastructure to manage its MSRs and also breached minimum capital requirements.
    • NY’s Ben Lawsky, of course, has put the kibbosh on transfers of servicing rights from the banks to the nonbank players until his concerns over servicing practices are satisfied.


  78. Nestle refines coffee strategy

    10:37 AM ET · NSRGY

    • There’s a little bit of capitulation in Nestle’s (NSRGY, NSRGF) move to sell Coffee-Mate through the Keurig K-Cup ecosystem, say analysts.
    • The company’s Dolce Gusto system failed to gain steam in the U.S.
    • Nestle is also facing pressure in Europe in the coffee market from private-label sellers and the D.E. Master Blenders-Mondelez combination.


  79. Nestle and Keurig Green Mountain sign multi-year deal

    07:31 AM ET · NSRGY

    • Nestle (NSRGY, NSRGF) and Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR) sign a multi-year agreement to bring Nestle Coffee-Mate to the Keurig system.
    • The deal will see Nestle Coffee-Mate K-Cup packs available in stores this fall.


  80. Huge wheeee! on oil ($105.35) - that certainly made up for the earlier miss!  


  81. Northrop Grumman awarded $3.6B contract from U.S. Navy

    07:14 AM ET · NOC

    • Northrop Grumman (NOC) has received a $3.6B contract from the U.S. Navy for 25 E-2D new Advanced Hawkeye aircraft. The new order brings the total number of aircraft on contract to 50. (PR)


  82. Kantar: Android gains share from March-May, iPhone results mixed

    Yesterday, 07:02 PM ET · GOOG

    • With the help of a strong Galaxy S5 launch and healthy low-end phone demand, Android’s (GOOG) U.S., Chinese, EU5, and Japanese shares respectively rose to 61.9% (+990 bps Y/Y), 82.7% (+1130 bps), 73.3% (+150 bps), and 47% (+50 bps) during the March-May timeframe, says Kantar Worldpanel. (PR – .pdf)
    • Results were mixed for the iPhone (AAPL) ahead of the expected fall launch of 4.7″ and 5.5″ iPhone 6 models: U.S. and Chinese shares respectively fell to 32.5% (-940 bps Y/Y) and 14.7% (-910 bps), but EU5 and Japanese shares rose to 16.6% (+80 bps) and 51.7% (+210 bps). With March quarter iPhone ASP at $596, revenue shares are bound to be higher.
    • More evidence large screens are a bigger selling point in Europe (among other places): 17% of European Galaxy S5 buyers said they switched from Apple, while only 8% of U.S. buyers said the same. 58% of European S5 buyers already owned a Samsung (SSNLF, SSNGY) phone.


  83. TSLA/MrM – I prefer to just not play, rather than go bullish, myself.  

    F'ing PCLN – Leaped from $1,200 to $1,232.  Just about 2.5% on the button.  

    WYNN went up despite terrible Macau numbers this month.  They are using the World cup as an excuse.  

    Paulson/Snow – Damn, you are old!  cheeky

    FDX/Scott – I'm very interested in their earnings.  

    GM/Pirate – They are writing off half a year's earnings (so far).  On the whole, that's not a big deal – especially if you assume their problems are now all known and behind them.  

    Clout/Rustle – No contest there.  

    Oil very interesting, now $105.25.  $105 SHOULD be very bouncy and, if not, long way bad to $100 but I can't imagine that happening ahead of the holiday weekend.  

    Brent is $112.34 and blowing $113 was a big deal – that's why I was still into shorting this morning.  Those guys are a lot closer to Iraq than we are!   Gasoline (/RB) failed $3.04 and bounced off $3.03 but still a good long if it gets back over $3.04.  Silver ($21.15) and gold ($1,331) already getting their mojo back (something else GS manipulated recently).  


  84. Phil; maybe a question for the webinar but relevant now.  Watching /RB all morning as you point out, it keeps bouncing off $103.  Why is that not a long line?


  85. Of course I meant $3.03.  Seems like easy way to make nickels and dimes. 


  86. On playing NFLX, this morning was the perfect time to write options on them.  Premium was sky high and they always die down by 11am once stock is in a range and even more so at 2pm.  Talking next weeks options.  TSLA is the same way, just wait till it pops or drops hard and take advantage of options way out of the money that still pay a nice premium and you are playing a week ahead if not the same week. A 490 put on NFLX even now for next week is 1.60.  And should have solid support at 440 now and those were over 2.50 earlier.


  87. I like this one:

    ECB Easy Money Lost as Real Rates Rise: Chart of the Day

    Macro Miasma: China 6Mo Highs; Japan/South Korea 9Mo Lows

    Great article:  The Pitchforks Are Coming … For Us Plutocrats (Politico)

    The Riskiest Housing Markets In America

    California Housing And The Bubble At Hand

     Tax cuts in Kansas have cost the state money — and job creation’s been terrible (WonkBlog)

    Here Are The 28.5 Million Cars Recalled By GM In The First Half Of 2014

    Shorts Squeezed Most In 11 Months As Russell Surges But Outperformed By Gold In H1

    The Stock Market's Seven-Year Itch

    Investors want companies to start spending again. Companies have other ideas, says S&P (MoneyBeat

    Biggest Gains Are an Inside Job (MoneyBeat)

    Cringe-Worthy Memos Show Blatant Fraud At BNP Paribas

    The New Warmal: Global Temps Break Another Record (Bloomberg)

    Are Fuel Cells the Solution to American Cities’ Energy Woes? (Slate)

    Everything Wrong With Investor Behavior in One Article (Reformed Broker)

    What Kind of Investor Are You? (A Wealth of Common Sense)

    Source: DealBook

    Mission creep!  Obama Sends 200 More US Troops Into Iraq


  88. By the way, on that weather chart, I love the Koch talking point that 100,000 years ago we had an ice age and 100,000 years before that and this is just a warming cycle.  Sure, over 100,000 years the earth is SUPPOSED to get about 30 degrees warmer in a "normal" cycle, this cycle is pushing us 1 degree in 50 years and accelerating so, in just 1,000 years, the Earth will be 20 degrees warmer.  That is NOT something that has EVER happened before.  

    /RB/Options – It's safer to wait and see $3.04 taken back rather than gambling $3.03 will hold but, if you are comfortable with the quick in and outs – it's fine to play long at $3.03 as well.  

    NFLX/Rustle – That one is just too scary but, of course, the logic is very sound.  TSLA I have more faith in gravity – NFLX does have some actual profit growth underneath all that BS.  

    CMG back at $600, SHLD back over $40, EBAY back over $50…


  89. GMCR – I have Jan 110 Puts @ 16.74. Any suggestions to at least break even?


  90. I was right to worry that the Watson news would crack IBM higher – up $5 today – accounting for 40 of the Dow points.  Those short 2016 $160 puts we sold in the LTP yesterday for $9.40 are already $8.35 – up $625 (11%) in a day – who says long-term investing is boring?  

    GMCR/Daveo – We're worse off in the STP with a $20.50 entry, though the net is lower as we bought back successful short puts we had sold.  I'm waiting for earnings to act so I'd suggest you stay tuned for our adjustment there (1st week of aug).

    Long on oil (/CL) off the $105 line, of course, looking for the bounce to $105.20 (weak) or $105.40 (strong).  

    /TF nice short at 1,205 but that's what we thought at 1,200 too, so be careful!  


  91. BBBY getting interesting now that they held a spike down to $55 and recovered fast:

    I agree with the Trefis note on them too:

    In addition to offering attractive products, Bed Bath & Beyond keeps its prices comparable with other popular retailers to ensure the best deals for its customers. Although it is difficult to compete with online giant Amazon over prices, Bed Bath & Beyond has managed to do so. According to Oppenheimer analyst Brian Nagel, Bed Bath & Beyond’s prices are 15% lower (on average) than that of Amazon’s after incorporating the home goods retailer’s 20% discount coupon. Moreover, while Amazon’s prices are 7% lower on average excluding sales taxes, it is at par with Bed Bath & Beyond once taxes are included. [1]

    Considering that the home goods retailer has a better product range than Amazon, lower or comparative prices gives it a competitive edge over the online retailer. Moreover, it positions Bed Bath & Beyond better to curb the growing threat of showrooming from Amazon. Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) may offer the lowest prices in the market, but its product variety, quality and shopping experience cannot match that of Bed Bath & Beyond. Hence, we believe that the home goods retailer is well-poised in terms of pricing to continue driving store traffic.

    We discussed them last week and I said, at the time, to let the downgrade police get their swings in and that drove them down to $55 but the bargain hunters dove in.  We can still sell the 2015 $55 puts for $5 and that's a nice entry on these guys so let's put 5 of those into the LTP today and pick up $2,000 more.  


  92. PHIL/BBBY  The put should be 2016


  93. PHIL/BBBY  5 puts @$5 = $2500


  94. Phil / Tues
    but the .30 delta vs a $1.89 sale means you lose 20% on a $1 move up in AAPL
    would you explain this when you have time

    IBM  Damn !! I was waiting for a $9.40 fill – would this be one of those you would chase out of the gate ?


  95. Thanks Zten – If you'd like to move to NJ, I can use an editor over my shoulder!  cheeky

    OK guys, so that's the BBBY 2016 $150

    Delta/Wombat – Wow, you really do need to read those options basic books!  The delta is .30 so every $1 the stock moves the option gains or loses .30 and .30 is about 20% of $1.89. 

    IBM/Wombat – Well, I REALLY like it so yes, I'd still sell it.  


  96. IBM: 30% on 180/190 BCS.  I'll take it.


  97. wombat/IBM 9.40:

    I was confronted with the same issue yesterday.  I ended up selling the puts for 9.25.. but then again, I couldn't wait to get back into IBM wh/ I have a strong opinion on.

    Oftentimes when Phil makes a recommendation, it gets picked up and the bidding begins… Sometimes I'll just wait it out to try to get a better price, and sometimes it just doesn't work out.

    The way I look at it, most times we get another chance to enter at a good price..  If not, there's always another pony.


  98. This could be a twist in The TSLA plans. Maxwell Technologies has developed a ultra capacitor for automotive applications. Capable of over 1 million cycles of fast charge and discharge. Can also take the strain off batteries and high vibration like public transit. Provide constant and pulse power for peak loads. One advantage is safety, they could cause a spark but not burn like lithium cells.


  99. I can't believe TSLA is bucking the trend… weird.


  100. Phil / Delta
    and .30 is about 20% of $1.89   Thats what I was missing.

    JBur / IBM
    Ya, me too. I just didn't expect it to shoot like that. In the end I'm willing to eat .50 to get back into one of my favorite stocks. I'll wait for the pullback to stick a BLCS on it

    Jabo / TSLA
    Don't Jinx it man.
     

     



  101. RSH – discussed as a short with a friend last week and he went and wrote an article about 'em, pointing out that, without stock buybacks, they were actually profitable for 12 of the last 14 years. Like Phil, he is no fan of buybacks, either.

    http://www.lewrockwell.com/2014/07/eric-englund/radioshack-is-going-bankrupt/


  102. scottmi RSH

    Before you short them I will say they have a foot in 2 doors that they could consolidate to, satellite TV and cell phones. The days of selling parts to hobbyists is over and the need for large retail space. I have no idea what plans are but 2 industries have a stake in them surviving. FWIW 


  103. gild 85+


  104. shadowfax / capacitors

    You are somewhat correct… Capacitors are very promising as they have MUCH greater power density than comparable batteries but have much lower energy density.  Anyway, as to the math…this 61kg cap holds 140Wh.  The "small" model S has a 60kWh battery which (based on a forum post) weighs just over 300kg. 

    To replace the batteries (on an energy storage basis) with MUCH safer and MUCH higher performance (power) caps, it would require 87x the weight.

    It looks promising, but it is still a long ways off from upsetting the industry.


  105. Shorts have no chance:



  106. On top of $3B in POMO….


  107. Pharm / Repo

    How does this help the markets?  If those funds were lent yesterday to be returned today, how are we having an up day?


  108. ~~JPH1121 capacitors

    To be clearer I was not implying battery replacement but to supplement batteries under the worse conditions that can lead to failures. Currently these capacitors are used for pulse surge and memory retention. Like capacitors allow power supplies to be designed for average needs rather than peak needs, they can lower peak demand from the battery. They have been used for years in megawatt car stereos rather than a pack of batteries to supply instant short demands by their ability to charge and discharge very quickly. 


  109. Fun with capacitors, replacing car battery:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z3x_kYq3mHM


  110. shadow / Caps

    Oh, in that case, I can already guarantee you a Tesla is capped up to all hell :) .  That's just basic engineering to have large bulk and decoupling capacitance any place you have surge currents.  A lot of the time, these super and ultra caps are really in a middle ground between a traditional capacitor and a battery anyway.  They have much lower power density with greater energy density than a ceramic, tantalum, aluminum, etc but much great power density and lower energy density than a battery.


  111. Priceline, Expedia rally following Oppenheimer launches • 1:48 PM

    Oppenheimer has launched coverage on Priceline (PCLN +3.4%) and Expedia (EXPE +2.6%) at Outperform. Its PTs are respectively $1,450 and $90.

    Priceline has bounced strongly from a May low of $1,087, but remains well below an early March high of $1,378. Expedia, on the other hand, is closing in a February high of $81.78.

    Expedia rallied last Friday after announcing it's buying European car rental site Auto Escape. The purchase followed last year's closing of a $632M deal to buy a 61.6% stake in hotel metasearch platform Trivago (big in Europe).


  112. JPH….this is how it works….from ZH

    When we reported yesterday's record reverse-repo surge, driven entirely by collateral-strapped financial entities scrambling to "window dress" their balance sheets with rented Fed-owned Treasurys for regulatory purposes, we said "Expect total reverse repo usage tomorrow to plunge by at least $150 billion as the banks will have fooled their regulator, which also happens to be the Fed, that they are safe and sound. Rinse, repeat, until the entire financial system collapses once again and people will ask "how anyone could have possibly foreseen this." Moments ago the Fed reported the daily reverse repo use. It turns out we were optimistic: it wasn't $150 billion, it was $189 billion. Following yesterday's $339 billion allottment, today this number tumbled to just $151 billion, meaing nearly $200 billion in fungible cash had to quick find a new home away from the Fed.


  113. Ohh, I think I get it.

    Summary:  The cash had already come OUT of the stock market.  The banks used the reverse repo to look comfortable with the regulator.  They are now returning that cash to the stock market causing a nice up day.


  114. Yep….wash rinse, repeat. 


  115. TSLA – no more fires? or just doing a really good job of suppressing any news about them?


  116. UNP/pwright – playing very nice just melting up every day..  set an alert to add a new diagonal if dips under 99.37 (bottom of channel). Maintaining all out stop at a close under 98.69.


  117. scottmi fires

    Interesting, normally I would say they couldn't do it but when your customer base is a fan club loyalty comes in. What really bothers me is not reporting failures while charging and rather than incidences on the road if nothing burns down easily covered up. I am referring to failures not just fires. Next time I need a battery I will try super capacitors with unheard of cold cranking amps, as it does get very cold here.


  118. RSH/Scott – They are drowning like Blockbuster and I don't see how they'll get out of it.  Too many leases with 5,000 stores and 27,000 employees indicates there's really no staff to cut (just like Blockbuster) – just running a dying business no one seems to care about anymore.  If BBY opened up a little battery department – they'd be dead in a week.  

    Oil testing $105.35 from the bottom now.  That's where they paused on the way down this morning.  

    /RB still below $3.04 but came close.  

    Repos/Pharm – Must be great to know the Fed will cover up any mistake you ever make.  

    Repo/Jph – I believe the term of the offering to lend was one day, the loans themselves are for 7 days.  Look at that rate – 0.05% – that's FREE MONEY!!!

    LQMT back down to .24 – maybe another opportunity soon.  

    TSLA/Scott – I think they actually did fix them with a software upgrade.  Cool if true.  


  119. Repo/ Parm & Phil

    Is that the 1 year yield or the term yield?  If that's annual, that's free money but I took that to be the 7 day yield is 0.05% which is a 2.6% APY(I think…0.05*52 weeks/year).  Still good, but not THAT good.


  120. It's all free money JPH….no matter how you look at it.  Put it in the market, and whallah, 30% gain…or 8%, or just today…. 0.8%.  Does not matter how you slice and dice it….it's all free to them. 

    It would have been cheaper to redo everyone's loans as was suggested here by Phil in 2010, and along with the infrastructure play, then the economy would be booming.  All this non-sense that Repubs and Democrats are bickering over now would be an afterthought (healthcare would be universal), as the Dems would be in control and the Tea Party would be part of another country.


  121. I was wondering why the $85B a month didn't go to giving every American $250 a month.  Seems like a grand a month for a 4 person family could do some pretty solid economic good.


  122. Dow is the laggard:

    http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2014/6/30/sp-500-trounces-the-dow.html

    With half of the year behind us, the S&P 500 finished off the first half with one of its largest margins of outperformance over the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) on record.  Through Monday's close, the S&P 500 finished the first half up 6.05%, which was more than 450 basis points (bps) ahead of the 1.51% return for the DJIA.  Going back to 1929, there have only been five other years where the DJIA performed worse relative to the S&P 500.  The widest margin of outperformance was in 2000, when the DJIA was down over 9% in the first half of the year while the S&P 500 was down just 1.0%.  The most recent period where the S&P 500 outperformed the DJIA by a wider margin was in 2009, so there's something for both bears (2000) and the bulls (2009) in terms of similar periods.


  123. RSH – if you can get good fills on a Jan15/Jan16 .50 call calendar, you can be in for a credit. Not a lot of payola, but one of those guaranteed trades if you have low commissions.


  124. LQMT – Phil, what is it about you and penny stocks ? :-)


  125. FEIC back up over their gap. looking for it to retake 95…


  126. RSH- The thing with them is they are in small towns & the one In Ashland Wisc also has an electrical supply. Unlike Walfart, you actually can get some help with ? & find loads of things that are tough to find, especially for older houses. They have leases on property & the lenders won't let them close-down stores. It reminds me of BBY when everyone said they would go bust. They, again, have terrific customer service &  you can go back in with ? and they sit down & go over things with you. I use them in Duluth MN for all my appliance & electronic purchases except when I'm the other direction, then it is RSH. There are many purchasers who are "hands on" & like to see, feel & if possible use a product b=4 buying.


  127. Is the yhoo BCS really 38/45? x16? Or did I write it down wrong?


  128. CBOE Plans to List Options on GoPro, Inc. (GPRO)
    - Expected Start Date of Monday, July 7


  129. ~~pirateinvestor RSH

    Like you I think they survive and they do need to get out of thousands of leases, bankruptcy may be their intention. They could do online as the national picture like may others. I know the store in Jackson does quit well. 


  130. Repo/Jph – As Pharm says, what difference.  I'm pretty sure it's for the week – very sick if not.  As Pharm notes, that money would have been much better spent giving everyone in America a 3% mortgage and 3% auto loans and letting them refinance their credit cards at 3%.  We'd be booming right now if that had happened (but the Banksters would make less money so it's a non-starter).  

    $105.40 on /CL – the strong bounce is hit.  

    /TF back under 1,205.

    Credit/Scott – Nice if you can get it (and your fees are low enough).  

    LQMT/Albo – I allow myself one or two a year. 

    RSH/Pirate – That's lovely but do you think RSH is making a profit when their employee sits down and gives you all that terrific customer service?  And, of course, he only has time to do that because you are pretty much the only customer, right?  I like Radio Shack too, whenever we have a complicated device problem, I go there because they have smart guys who like to help and, unlike BBY, I don't have to make an appointment or pay for the service (though I do give the guy a $20 when I take up a lot of his time).  RSH sells $3.5Bn worth of stuff in those 5,000 stores – that's $700,000 per store but, think about it, figure 50% margins = $350,000 to staff 3-5 guys ($35,000 x 5 = $175K) and $50K rent and $25K utilities…  Not much left to kick upstairs.  

    YHOO/Pirate – That's 30 in the STP and 5 in the $25KP at a $1.60 cost (now $1.70). 

    GPRO/Diamond – Cool, funtime about to begin!  

    RSH/Shadow – The cost of getting out of thousands of individual leases, even through bankruptcy, is probably unworkable.  


  131. RUT flopping to 1,200 again.  We forgot to press our TZAs!  


  132. PGNX quietly having a nice day. 

    EPZM…..darn….should not have covered….


  133. Phil

    The store in Jackson is privately owned and I would love to talk to him, am sure he has a plan. He does most TV and cell phone there. Customer service but he has limits on anything else, like you say different from the Verizon store, they are knowledgeable and people crowd in. 


  134. scottmi re: UNP, which diagonals are you looking at?


  135. Rsh- They sell VZ cells so yes, I have had to wait for service.  I've left & came back when they weren't so busy. I'm sure the lease is not anything near what you quote. It is really a small demographic here & not a lot of demand for anything.  I have no idea what may happen-I just know a lot of people besides me uses them especially when your time constrained because it is quick trip to get problems solved.


  136. On the hour

    05:00 PM ET

    • S&P +0.01%.
    • 10-yr -0.02%.
    • Euro -0.1% vs. dollar.
    • Crude -0.03% to $105.33.
    • Gold +0.02% to $1,327.10.


  137. Stocks begin quarter with broad rally, Dow comes within two points of 17K

    04:20 PM ET

    • The S&P and Dow rallied to finish at new all-time highs but pared earlier gains that took the Dow to the brink of 17,000 for the first time; the Nasdaq pushed to its highest level since March 2000, while the Russell 2000 finished just short of its high set March 4.
    • Investors were heartened by data that showed expansion in U.S. manufacturing and better than expected sales for major U.S. automakers; China’s first manufacturing expansion since December also helped early sentiment.
    • GM jumped 3% as the automaker reported its U.S. car and light truck sales rose 1% in June, while Netflix surged 7% after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to Buy; utilities lagged, with Exelon falling 2% as one of the bigger S&P losers.
    • Participation was light, with fewer than 675M shares traded at the NYSE.
    • Treasury prices fell steadily through the session, with the 10-year note shedding nine ticks and raising the benchmark yield by 3 bps to 2.56%.


  138. AIG moves to pay off more debt

    04:18 PM ET · AIG


  139. Google buys Songza

    04:15 PM ET · GOOG

    • Google (GOOG +1.3%) says it will “explore ways” to integrate Songza, whose Android/iOS apps (5.5M MAUs) deliver human-curated music stations based on mood and activity, with Google Play Music. “We view the Songza acquisition as a way to further enhance our radio feature by adding their expertise on context.”
    • The Web giant adds it will also look at ways to use Songza’s curation/music recommendation expertise within YouTube and other products. Google has already announced plans to launch a YouTube music subscription service later this summer.
    • No purchase price is given for the deal. The NY Post previously reported Google had offered $15M.
    • Pandora (P), which currently has 77M active users to Songza’s 5.5M, is down 2.1% AH.


  140. Paychex beats by $0.01, beats on revenue

    04:04 PM ET · PAYX

    • Paychex (PAYX): FQ4 EPS of $0.40 beats by $0.01.
    • Revenue of $628.8M (+7.4% Y/Y) beats by $11.45M.
    • Shares +0.88% AH.
    • Press Release


  141. At the close

    04:00 PM ET

    • Dow +0.78% to 16,957.74. S&P +0.66% to 1,973.22. Nasdaq +1.14% to 4,458.65.
    • Treasurys: 30-year -0.41%. 10-yr -0.18%. 5-yr -0.12%.
    • Commodities: Crude +0.06% to $105.43. Gold +0.47% to $1,328.20.
    • Currencies: Euro -0.11% vs. dollar. Yen +0.21%. Pound -0.27%.


  142. Materialise +19.4% thanks to 3D printing rally

    03:50 PM ET · MTLS

    • Add newly-public Materialise (MTLS) to the list of 3D printing names blasting off today.
    • The 3D printing software/services provider is now 14% above its $12 IPO price. Shares initially sold off following last week’s offering.


  143. Brazil’s Rousseff, Petrobras CEO defend no-bid oil production rights deal

    03:37 PM ET · PBR

    • Brazil President (PBR -0.4%) Rousseff and Petrobras CEO Maria das Gracas Foster made a joint appearance today to defend the controversial deal announced last week that gives the state-run oil company expanded exploration rights in return for ~$6.8B in payments to the government.
    • Foster and Rousseff said the deal, which grants PBR expanded production rights to four deepwater oil fields off Brazil’s coast, would help the company reach its target to produce 4.2M bbl/day of oil by 2020 at a marginal additional cost.
    • Rousseff said the decision to award the oil to PBR without an auction shows the government’s confidence in the company’s ability to develop Brazil’s ultra-deepwater pre-salt oil reserves, and “guarantees” the results “will translate into wealth for the Brazilian people.”
    • Earlier: Petrobras CEO says no capital raise before 2030.


  144. Moody’s takes chainsaw to Puerto Rico credit rating

    03:36 PM ET · MBI

    • Moody’s downgrades Puerto Rico’s GO bond rating by a big three notches to B2 from Ba2, and cut ratings on the commonwealth’s other debt as well in wake of last week’s passage of a law allowing public corporations to defer or reduce debt payments.
    • “Puerto Rico’s new law marks the end of the commonwealth’s long history of taking actions needed to support its debt. It signals a depleted capacity for revenue increases and austerity measures, and a new preference for shifting fiscal pressures to creditors.”
    • MBIA (MBI -0.6%), Assured Guaranty (AGO -3.1%)
    • Previously: U.S. firms take new Puerto Rico law to court


  145. Goldman eyeing online brokers as trading business disappears?

    03:29 PM ET · GS

    • Significant fixed-income cuts could be coming at Goldman Sachs (GS -0.3%) reports Charlie Gasparino, amid the continuing slowdown in business, with details maybe coming when the bank reports Q2 earnings on July 15.
    • Both CEO Lloyd Blankfein and President Gary Cohn come from fixed-income and they’ve been reluctant to give up on the business, but the full effect of Dodd-Frank regulations are beginning to kick in, and a big change in the bank’s business model could be necessary.
    • During the internet boom, Goldman sniffed around E*Trade (ETFC +2.8%) and Schwb (SCHW +1.9%), and some bankers, according to Gasparino, say Goldman may need to take another look at purchasing an online brokerage name.


  146. Blackstone reportedly signs up three traders for hedge fund

    03:07 PM ET · BX

    • Already the largest investor in hedge funds, Blackstone (BX +0.3%) is starting its own and has signed up a team of three traders, reports Bloomberg. The trio will manage about $500M and begin making long and short bets on stocks this year.
    • “We expect by the end of 2016 to have multiple billions in this new platform,” says Vice Chairman Tom Hill, who will oversee the new team along with Parag Pande (joined Blackstone from Ziff Brothers this year), and Gideon Berger, a partner at Blackstone Alternative Asset Management.
    • Previously: Blackstone jumps further into hedge-fund sector


  147. Online book sales surpass sales at retail stores

    02:56 PM ET · AMZN

    • Online book sales exceeded sales churned up by physical bookstores for the first time ever last year, $7.54B vs. $7.12B, according to BookStats.
    • The tally doesn’t included sales of self-published books sold online.
    • Related stocks: AMZN, CRRC, JW.A, PSO, SCHL, BKS


  148. Linn Energy’s deal with Devon praised by Raymond James

    02:52 PM ET · LINE

    • Linn Energy’s (LINE +0.8%) $2.3B asset purchase from Devon Energy (DVN -0.1%) earns the praise of Raymond James analysts, who note that LINE plans to sell its high-decline Granite Wash assets to fund the deal, meaning the company is not likely to need to tap debt or equity markets for related funding.
    • The firm estimates LINN may need to reserve only 20% of EBITDA to maintain the cash flow from the new assets vs. ~40% of EBITDA likely need to maintain the Granite Wash; through this transaction and the Permian divestiture program, LINN could reduce its overall capital budget by ~$400M.
    • LNCO -0.3%.


  149. Gold ETF outflows continue, but pace slows

    02:51 PM ET · GLD

    • Gold may on the move higher this year, but investors keep pulling money out of gold ETFs, with $562M of outflows YTD (through June 27), according to Bloomberg, including $1.34B exiting in Q2. “Many have failed to notice the fact that gold has shown a strong performance this year, and it seems that the 2013 slump is still fresh in people’s minds,” says Pension Partners’ Michael Gayed.
    • Yesterday, however, the amount of gold in ETFs increased by 229K ounces, mostly due to GLD inflows. It’s the biggest one-day increase since May and largely offset all of June’s outflows.
    • The outflows in 2014 don’t compare to the stampede in 2013, says UBS, and it suggests the bulk of the selling is now in the rearview mirror.
    • Gold today is ahead 0.5% to $1,328 per ounce – a three-month high.
    • ETFs: GLD, IAU, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, UGLD, DZZ, GLDI, DGL, DGZ, AGOL, DGLD, OUNZ, TBAR, UBG, GLDE, GYEN, GLDL, GLDS, GEUR, GGBP


  150. Qualcomm buying CSR’s Israeli imaging unit

    02:40 PM ET · QCOM

    • Qualcomm (QCOM +0.7%) is buying U.K. chipmaker CSR’s (CSRE -0.6%) Israeli ops. TheMarker reports the purchase price is $45M.
    • The purchase provides Qualcomm with imaging IP and engineering talent. The company states the deal will help it “continue successfully developing cameras so that smartphones will provide the same quality as a digital camera.”
    • Qualcomm doesn’t compete in the image sensor market, but it has integrated a decent amount of image-processing IP into its Snapdragon processors. Its flagship Snapdragon 805 can process 55MP images with the help of dual image signal processors (ISPs).
    • Last week, Qualcomm announced it has bought power amplifier vendor Black Sand.


  151. More on Toyota’s U.S. sales

    02:30 PM ET · TM

    • Toyota (TM +2%) reports it ended the first half of the year as the top-selling brand in the U.S. after maintaining positive growth in June despite two fewer selling days than a year ago.
    • Sales by brand: Toyota +2.5% to 178,196; Lexus +10.1% to 23,518.
    • Sales by model: Corolla +17% to 30,945; Prius -11.5% to 18,649; Camry +13.4% to 40,664; RAV4 +5.1% to 21,589; Highlander +4.2% to 11,555.


  152. J.P. Morgan sees downside risk for Joy Global

    02:23 PM ET · JOY

    • J.P. Morgan remains bearish on coal and iron ore, which does not bode well for Joy Global (JOY +0.2%), even as shares rise slightly following upbeat manufacturing data early this morning out of China.
    • Caterpillar’s (CAT +0.5%) mining business already has fallen from a peak of $21.2B to ~$10.3B whereas JOY’s combined businesses have fallen 32% with its OE business down 57% and its service business down 7% from the peak, the firm says.
    • Lack of visibility makes the question of whether JOY’s revenue has further to fall a tough call, but J.P. Morgan thinks deteriorating U.S. thermal coal conditions skew the risk to the downside.


  153. Noodles to add floating server as part of dinner plan

    02:22 PM ET · NDLS

    • Noodles (NDLS -2.9%) plans to add a floating server at its stores in order to help drive up sales for dessert, beer, and wine.
    • The development falls in line with a plan to increase the focus of the company on the dinner daypart.
    • In an optimistic view, CEO Kevin Reddy thinks the floating server can give a 3% lift to Noodles’ comp sales.


  154. Sonus +5% on bullish FBR note

    02:15 PM ET · SONS

    • Sonus’ (SONS) session border controller (SBC) revenue could grow 65% from 2013 to 2015, thinks FBR’s Scott Thompson, reiterating an Outperform.
    • Thompson adds Sonus could see its gross margin eventually rise to 67%-70%. Sonus saw a Q1 GM of 65.6%, and expects a Q2 GM of 65%-65.5%.
    • He argues shares could eventually reach the $8-$10 range if margins for Sonus’ growing 4G diameter signaling (DSC) business (obtained through the Performance Technologies acquisition) prove similar to its SBC margins.
    • Sonus is relying on SBC/DSC growth to offset weakening VoIP gateway sales. The company expects 2014 SBC/DSC revenue of $168M, and total revenue of $300M.


  155. Porsche June U.S. sales

    01:55 PM ET · VLKAY

    • Porsche (VLKAY) unit sales +11% to 4,102.
    • Sales for the Cayenne model fell 28.7% to 1,300.
    • Sales for the new 2015 Macan S and Macan Turbo came in at 763 for the model’s first full month in showrooms.


  156. BMW June U.S. sales

    01:50 PM ET · BAMXY

    • BMW (BAMXY) unit sales +5.7% to 35,577.
    • Sales growth by brand: BMW +11.5% to 30,201; Mini -18.2% to 5,376.
    • Sales for the BMW 5 Series rose 77% to 7,940.


  157. Priceline, Expedia rally following Oppenheimer launches

    01:48 PM ET · PCLN

    • Oppenheimer has launched coverage on Priceline (PCLN +3.4%) and Expedia (EXPE +2.6%) at Outperform. Its PTs are respectively $1,450 and $90.
    • Priceline has bounced strongly from a May low of $1,087, but remains well below an early March high of $1,378. Expedia, on the other hand, is closing in a February high of $81.78.
    • Expedia rallied last Friday after announcing it’s buying European car rental site Auto Escape. The purchase followed last year’s closing of a $632M deal to buy a 61.6% stake in hotel metasearch platform Trivago (big in Europe).


  158. Mercedes-Benz June U.S. sales

    01:31 PM ET · DDAIF

    • Mercedes-Benz (DDAIF) unit sales +8.2% to 29,380.
    • Sales growth by Mercedes class: C-Class -26.6% to 5,607; E-Class +25.5% to 6.5K; S-Class +111.7% to 1,780; M-Class +6.6% to 3,891; GL-Class -28.5% to 1,729.
    • Sprinter sales rose 12.0% to 2,201.


  159. Honda June U.S. sales

    01:26 PM ET · HMC

    • Honda (HMC) unit sales -5.8% to 129,023, better than the 7.4% drop that was forecast.
    • The Honda division saw car sales improve 9.6% to 67,194 to partially offset a 12.6% drop in truck sales. In the Acura division, truck sales outpaced car sales.
    • Sales growth by model: Fit -26.8% to 3,698; Accord +2.1% to 32,329; Civic +8.7% to 32,301; CR-V -1.7% to 26,129; Pilot -18.7% to 9,830.


  160. Microvision +6.5% on reported Microsoft patent mention

    01:23 PM ET · MVIS

    • Microvision (MVIS) has spiked higher on a report the company has been mentioned in a Microsoft heads-up display patent filing. Volume has topped a daily average of 1.14M.
    • Previous: Microvision gains on bullish SA Pro column
    • Update: SA Instablog writer User666 has posted the patent filing. It covers automatic text scrolling on a heads-up display.


  161. Morgan Stanley advisers green-lighted for Twitter

    01:22 PM ET · MS

    • It’ll take having to pass an online training course and accumulating at least 15 followers, but then Morgan Stanley’s (MS -0.1%) more than 16K advisers will have permission to compose their own tweets. Don’t expect them to engage in quick-moving conversations often taking place on Twitter, as the brokers will still need approval from the firm before posting.
    • Morgan Stanley has previously embraced LinkedIn as a way for its advisers to join groups and win business, but has been far more cautious with Twitter, and prior to this new policy only allowed tweets to be sent out from a pre-approved library of messages.
    • Still, Morgan is ahead of the Thundering Herd. Merrill Lynch brokers are allowed use of LinkedIn, but Twitter remains a no-no.


  162. Phil – My comment about you and penny stocks was made with tongue planted firmly in cheek.


  163. U.S. auto sales: Industry prices lower, but don’t blame GM

    01:10 PM ET · GM

    • The average transaction price for a vehicle sold in the U.S. fell 2.2% M/M and 0.8% Y/Y in June, according to Truecar.com.
    • Perhaps a surprise given the overload of recall news, but General Motors (GM) was the automaker which showed the biggest increase in average transaction price over the last year (partially due to mix). Ford (F) and Toyota (TM) also scratched out gains, while Nissan (NSANY) and Volkswagen (VLKAY) went in the other direction.
    • GM’s level of incentive spending was also 11.9% lower than a year ago.
    • Hyundau (HYMLF) increased incentive spending by 43% to over $2K per vehicle in an effort to defend market share.


  164. Newegg the latest online retailer to back Bitcoin

    01:06 PM ET · COIN

    • Newegg, known for having a tech-savvy customer base (fits well with the demographic profile for Bitcoin early adopters), is partnering with Bitcoin (BITCN, BTCS) payment processor Bitpay to allow its 25M+ customers to pay with the virtual currency.
    • The online electronics retailer says buyers can pay by scanning QR codes on their phones, or by providing digital wallet address info. It joins Overstock, Expedia, and Dish Network in handling Bitcoin payments.
    • Following a recent selloff caused by the government’s auctioning of 29K+ Bitcoins seized during its Silk Road investigation, Bitcoin prices have once more topped $650.


  165. Interactive Brokers sees trading slowdown in June

    12:43 PM ET · IBKR

    • June DARTs of 495K fell 4% from May and were down 7% Y/Y. For H1, the numbers look a little better, with average DARTs growing 14% Y/Y.
    • Ending customer equity of $53.9B gained 6% from May, 44% Y/Y.
    • Ending customer margin loan balances of $15.4B, up 4% and 38%.
    • Ending customer credit balances of $28.3B, up 2% and 25%.
    • 262K customer accounts, up 1% and 17%.
    • Source: Press Release
    • IBKR +1.6%


  166. Petrobras CEO says no capital raise before 2030

    12:39 PM ET · PBR

    • Petrobras (PBR -1.2%) CEO Maria das Gracas Foster says the company does not expect to issue new shares before 2030, despite last week’s deal to obtain additional production rights from the government.
    • Analysts have acknowledged that the deal essentially granted PBR oil on the cheap, but many, such as Morgan Stanley’s Bruno Montanari, also noted that the state-run company has its hands full with an ambitious expansion plan for the coming years.
    • The CEO reiterates that the deal would increase PBR’s 2014-18 investment budget by only 3.5% from the previously stated $220.6B.


  167. BlackRock retakes lead in ETF sales

    12:38 PM ET · BLK

    • BlackRock’s (BLK +1.4%) iShares lineup took in an estimated $21.4B in net deposits in Q2, beating Vanguard’s $18.2B, according to Bloomberg. IShares funds focusing on emerging markets brought home $8B, including $5.9B for the MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM).
    • Before Q2, BlackRock – the ETF industry’s largest ETF provider – had lost share to Vanguard for four of the previous five quarters.
    • State Street (STT +0.9%) had seen net redemptions in Q1, but was able to bring in $8.3B in Q2. The company is especially sensitive to flows in and out of the giant SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), which accounts for 40% of its U.S. ETF assets.
    • Invesco’s PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQ) saw heavy redemptions of $2.9B even as it returned 7.2%.


  168. Ericsson talking with AT&T/Verizon about managed services deals (updated)

    12:36 PM ET · ERIC

    • Ericsson (ERIC +0.3%) says it’s “in discussions” with AT&T and Verizon about deals to manage their mobile infrastructures. Given Ericsson’s 7-year managed services deal with Sprint (a smaller carrier) is worth $5B, the size of any contract with AT&T or Verizon could be massive.
    • Ericsson, hungry to cut its hardware dependence by growing higher-margin software and services sales, forecast last November the telecom services market would show a 5%-7% CAGR through 2016. That’s better than the 3%-5% CAGR expected for carrier networking equipment.
    • Managed services chief Claude Geha argues a broader trend is afoot among carriers to outsource network management, and points to a new 7-year deal with Greek carrier OTE as proof. Geha suggests the deal creates opportunities for Ericsson do more work for Deutsche Telekom, which owns 40% of OTE.
    • Previous: E-mail suggests Ericsson set to win contract from Neustar
    • Update: Ericsson says it’s not in “specific discussions” with AT&T/Verizon about managed services deals.


  169. Mazda June U.S. sales

    12:34 PM ET · MZDAY

    • Mazda (MZDAY) unit sales +16.5% Y/Y to 26,208.
    • Mazda6 sales +24.8% to 4,793.
    • Sales of the Mazda CX-5 +15.9% to 7,943.


  170. Dividend increases continue, but growth slows a bit

    12:29 PM ET · DVY

    • Dividends in Q2 rose from the first quarter by $12.6B, but the growth lagged that of a year ago when they increased $17.6B, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. The number of firms boosting payouts in Q2 was 696 vs. just 591 a year ago.
    • “The good news is that the number of dividend increases was strong again in Q2, as the 696 increases were the most since 1979,” says the group’s Howard Silverblatt. “The bad news is that the growth rate of actual aggregate cash payments has slowed, even as dividends continue to set record payments.”
    • Among the S&P 500, 84.4% of firms currently pay a dividend, the most since September 1998, while all 30 of the DJIA pay a dividend.
    • ETFs: DVY, SCHD, SDOG, DLN, DHS, FDL, DTD, FVD, SDYL, DVYL


  171. Kia Motors June U.S. sales

    12:28 PM ET · HYMLF

    • Kia Motors (HYMLF) unit sales +0.1% to 50,644.
    • Sales growth by model: Optima -5.0% to 13,866; Soul +9.2% to 12,322; Sorrento +5.2% to 9,831.
    • Hyundai reported sales tallies for the Hyundai brand earlier today.


  172. Cheniere Energy, Pertamina sign additional LNG agreement

    12:23 PM ET · LNG

    • Cheniere Energy (LNG +2%) rallies to another day of all-time highs after signing an additional liquefied natural gas agreement with Pertamina, which will purchase ~760M metric tons/year of LNG upon the start of operations of Train 2 of the export facility currently being developed in Corpus Christi, Tex.
    • The agreement is in addition to an earlier deal for Pertamina to buy 760M metric tons/year of LNG, bringing the total quantity of gas sold to Pertamina under the two agreements to ~1.52M.
    • Yesterday, Woodside Petroleum agreed to buy 850K metric tons/year of gas from Cheniere’s proposed Corpus Christi terminal with a view to selling it on at a higher price.


  173. Fast-food chains react to minimum wage increase in California

    12:06 PM ET · MCD

    • Restaurant operators in California are expected to increase prices to counterbalance an increase in the minimum wage in the state which takes effect today,
    • The minimum hourly wage goes to $9 from $8 as an incremental step in a plan to take it to $10 per hour by 2016.
    • Fast-food stocks: MCD, BKW, WEN, JACK, YUM, SONC, PLKI


  174. Berkshire closes TV-station deal

    12:02 PM ET · BRK.A

    • Miami-based WPLG-TV is added to Berkshire Hathaway’s (BRK.A, BRK.B) media holdings after a roughly (tax-advantaged) $1.1B share swap deal. In addition to the ABC affiliate, Berkshire got back 2,107 of its own Class A shares, 1,278 of its Class B shares, and roughly $328M in cash from Graham Holdings (GHC +0.2%). In return, Berkshire delivered 1.62M shares of Graham Holdings back to Graham Holdings.
    • The Berkshire shares are valued at about $400M and the TV station at $364M.
    • The deal ends Warren Buffett’s long association with Graham Holdings, known as the Washington Post Co. before selling its flagship newspaper to Jeff Bezos. Buffett first bought into the company in 1973.
    • Previously: Buffett and Graham put deal on paper


  175. 3D printing stocks skyrocket as tech short-squeeze continues

    12:02 PM ET · DDD

    • 3D Systems (DDD +14.2%), Stratasys (SSYS +7.3%), Voxeljet (VJET +27.6%), ExOne (XONE +17.9%), Proto Labs (PRLB +11.7%), Camtek (CAMT +9.1%), and Organovo (ONVO +6.5%) are all taking off as heavily-shorted tech names rally for the second day in a row.
    • 34% of 3D Systems’ float was shorted as of June 13. The figure is 15% for Stratasys, 16% for Voxeljet, 32% for ExOne, 12% for Proto Labs, 5% for Camtek, and 26% for Organovo.
    • Also: 3D Systems has canceled a Pac Crest conference presentation. However, Pac Crest says this was simply because 3D didn’t have enough execs to attend.


  176. Apple roundup: Voice recognition, iPhone 6, PT hikes

    11:53 AM ET · AAPL

    • Wired reports Apple (AAPL +1%), which thus far has been relying on Nuance’s (NUAN -2.2%) voice recognition tech to help power Siri, has built its own voice recognition research team. Former Microsoft research director Alex Acero is part of the team, as are ex-Nuance researchers.
    • The magazine adds Apple is looking to use neural networking algorithms to improve voice recognition; Google and Microsoft have also shown an interest in the technology. Nuance is selling off on the report.
    • Sonny Dickson (leaked iPhone 5S pictures last year) has leaked images said to show the 4.7″ iPhone 6′s screen covers. The edges of the covers (but not the area covering the display) are slightly curved.
    • Baird and BTIG have joined the parade of analysts to hike their Apple PTs. Baird (PT hiked by $7 to $102) cites optimism about iPhone demand and pending product refreshes.
    • Previous: Kantar’s March-May iPhone numbers mixed


  177. Trading slump behind Goldman downgrade

    11:43 AM ET · GS

    • “If you’re wrong, you have to admit you’re wrong,” says Bernstein’s Brad Hintz, throwing in the towel on his Outperform rating for Goldman Sachs (GS -0.4%). “It certainly doesn’t look like trading is going to generate effective returns.”
    • And if trading does bounce back? “Yeah, they’re a winner,” says Hintz. “But over the next two years, it’s tough to make an argument that we’re going to see that winning occur.”
    • Previously: Goldman downgraded at Bernstein


  178. Subaru June U.S. sales

    11:32 AM ET · FUJHY

    • Subaru (FUJHY) unit sales +5.4% to 41,367.
    • Sales of the Outback model fell 5.6% to 11,525 while Forester sales were up 30.1% to 13,317.
    • The Japanese automaker says that halfway through the year it’s on track to meet its sales target for the year.


  179. Platinum, palladium soar along with auto sales, new South Africa strike

    11:31 AM ET · AAUKF

    • Platinum prices breach $1,500/oz. and palladium futures also jump as better than expected U.S. car sales data and a new strike in South Africa lured buyers into both markets.
    • Upbeat reports from GM, Ford, et. al. bucked expectations for a slowdown in car sales, boosting investor appetite for platinum and palladium, which are both widely used in car exhaust filters.
    • Meanwhile, a new strike by metal workers and engineers in South Africa have renewed concerns about supply after the country is still recovering from a five-month strike by platinum workers.
    • Platinum producers: AAUKF, AAUKY, IMPUY, LNMIF.
    • ETFs: PALL, PPLT, SPPP, PTM, PGM


  180. Global Manufacturing PMI rises to four-month high in June

    11:02 AM ET


  181. Nissan June U.S. sales

    11:00 AM ET · NSANY

    • Nissan (NSANY) unit sales +5.3% to 109,943 to eclipse the estimate of analysts for a 3% gain.
    • Sales growth by brand: Nissan +6.4% to 101,069; Infiniti -5.9% to 8,574.
    • Sales growth by model: Altima -2.9% to 26,111; Sentra +67.6% to 17,097; Rogue -2.9% to 15,066; Leaf +5.5% to 2,347; Pathfinder -23.9% to 6,361.
    • The gains by the automaker for the month came with two fewer selling days than a year ago.


  182. GoPro off to the races again

    10:59 AM ET · GPRO

    • Following today’s big gains, GoPro (GPRO +16.1%) is up 95% from last week’s $24 IPO price, and 64% from an opening trade of $28.65. Its market cap is now at $5.8B.
    • Ambarella (AMBA +2.2%), which rallied strongly ahead of GoPro’s IPO before selling off on IPO day, is again moving higher.
    • SA author Jeffrey Himelson argues investors should tread carefully with GoPro. He notes gross margin fell from 52% in 2011 to 37% in 2013, and that competition from the likes of Sony, Panasonic, and JVC is intensifying.


  183. The death-of-Aereo rally in broadcaster stocks continues

    10:46 AM ET · SBGI

    • Aereo moves straight into lobbying mode after suspending business operations yesterday.
    • CEO Chet Kanojia is out with a letter to clients in which he asks them to contact their Congress reps in order to support cloud-based antenna technology.
    • The death of Aereo is still being baked into prices of broadcaster stocks. Sinclair Broadcasting (SBGI +2.1%), Entravision Communications (EVC +2.7%), Gray Television (GTN +1.9%), CBS (CBS +1.6%), and Media General (MEG +1.5%) are all still on the move post-SCOTUS decision.
    • Aereo vs. broadcasters timeline
    • Related ETF: PBS


  184. I guess we are bullish now…


  185. From Bloomberg, Jul 2, 2014, 4:08:10 AM

    European stocks advanced for a second
    day, following yesterday’s biggest gain in almost two months, as
    investors awaited reports on U.S. jobs and factory orders. U.S.
    index futures were little changed, while Asian shares rallied.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1lRG9PG

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  186. From Bloomberg, Jul 2, 2014, 5:32:47 AM


    July 2 (Bloomberg) — Min Lan Tan, Asia-Pacific regional head of UBS Wealth Management’s chief investment office, talks about U.S., Europe and Asia stocks.
    She speaks in Hong Kong with Angie Lau on Bloomberg Television’s “First Up.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Emerging-market stocks climbed, with
    the benchmark index rising to a 13-month high, and European
    shares rose for a second day as confidence builds in the global
    economic recovery. The pound strengthened, while Indonesia’s
    rupiah and Australia’s dollar weakened.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1jHp9qN

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  187. From Bloomberg, Jul 2, 2014, 4:46:15 AM

    The longest emerging-market currency
    rally
    in five years is faltering on speculation rising foreign
    ownership of local debt will leave nations from Indonesia to
    Brazil vulnerable to capital flight.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1jIhJ6I

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  188. From Bloomberg, Jul 2, 2014, 4:28:27 AM

    European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is boosting Europe’s cash supply as Janet Yellen winds down the Federal Reserve’s money-printing operation. Photographer: Ralph Orlowski/Bloomberg

    As Janet Yellen winds down the Federal Reserve’s money-printing operation, Mario Draghi is boosting Europe’s cash supply.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/VEt0Qv

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  189. From Bloomberg, Jul 2, 2014, 4:07:49 AM


    June 30 (Bloomberg) — Chang Jian, chief China economist at Barclays Plc in Hong Kong, talks about the nation’s economy, government and central bank policies.
    She speaks with Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Television’s “On the Move.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Property developers in two of China’s weakest housing markets are offering to buy back homes above the purchase price to boost sales as demand slows.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/TzX5yF

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  190. From Bloomberg, Jul 2, 2014, 2:37:26 AM


    June 24 (Bloomberg) — Jonathan Garner, Hong Kong-based chief Asia and emerging-market strategist at Morgan Stanley, talks about Japan’s economy, government and central bank policies, and stock market.
    Garner also talks about China’s economy with Angie Lau on Bloomberg Television’s “First Up.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Move over, Haruhiko Kuroda.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1xblNVd

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  191. Watch this video at http://bloom.bg/1olJA0S

    Dow 17,000: What’s the Big Deal?

    July 1: Bloomberg’s Joseph Ciolli discusses the significance of Dow 17,000.

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  192. Watch this video at http://bloom.bg/VDrTAp

    The Robotic Exoskeleton Helping People Walk Again

    July 1 (Bloomberg) — ReWalk Robotics CEO Larry Jasinski explains how the company’s robotic system is helping people walk again. He speaks with Pimm Fox on “Taking Stock.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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  193. Watch this video at http://bloom.bg/1nZK4GR

    Facebook Study Shows Emotions Are Contagious

    July 1: A Facebook researcher apologized after conducting an experiment that temporarily influenced what almost 700,000 readers saw on their news feeds, reviving some customers’ concerns about privacy issues.

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  194. Watch this video at http://bloom.bg/1sURL9t

    What’s Driving the Surprise Gains in Auto Sales?

    July 1: S&P’s Efraim Levy discusses U.S. auto sales in June with Mark Crumpton on “Bottom Line.”

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  195. Watch this video at http://bloom.bg/1om1a4S

    What’s Driving U.S. Stocks to Record Highs?

    July 2 (Bloomberg) — Silvercrest Asset Management’s Patrick Chovanec discusses what’s driving the rally in U.S. stocks and the state of China’s economy with Angie Lau on Bloomberg Television’s “First Up.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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  196. From Bloomberg, Jul 1, 2014, 7:00:01 PM


    June 30 (Bloomberg) — Ismael Clemente, chief executive officer of Merlin Properties SA, discusses the reduction in size of its initial public offering to 1.25 billion euros ($1.7 billion) from an earlier plan to raise 1.5 billion euros.
    He also speaks from Madrid about the outlook for the Spanish property market with Anna Edwards on Bloomberg Television’s “On the Move.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    U.S. baseball legend Yogi Berra once
    said of a restaurant, “Nobody goes there anymore. It’s too
    crowded.” Something similar is happening in Europe’s initial
    public offering market.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1lRvHYC

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  197. From Bloomberg, Jul 2, 2014, 12:35:23 AM


    July 2 (Bloomberg) — Anson Chan, Hong Kong’s top civil servant in the final years of the colonial government and the first four under Chinese rule, talks about the biggest march in a decade held yesterday in the city to demand full democracy and oppose Chinese control of elections.
    Hundreds of police were still clearing protesters from Hong Kong’s main business district this morning. Chan speaks with Angie Lau on Bloomberg Television’s “First Up.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Hundreds of police cleared protesters from Hong Kong’s business district today after the biggest march in a decade, held to oppose Chinese control of elections, turned into an overnight sit-in.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1qLEHyU

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  198. From Bloomberg, Jul 1, 2014, 11:44:08 PM

    U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron
    sold out Hong Kong to the Chinese when he failed to speak out
    against China’s attempt to alter the treaty agreed to when
    Britain handed the city over in 1997, the city’s former top
    civil servant said.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/Vau8um

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  199. From Bloomberg, Jul 1, 2014, 6:08:24 PM

    July 1 (Bloomberg) — Daniel Martin, Asia economist at Capital Economics, discusses the prospects for economic growth in China with Rishaad Salamat on “On The Move Asia.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    JD.com Inc. (JD) decided to push ahead with its initial public offering last quarter even as Internet stocks tumbled, volatility climbed and other technology companies delayed their share sales.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1quvPjw

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  200. From Bloomberg, Jul 1, 2014, 11:15:54 PM

    Protesters outside the Prime Minister’s offices in Tokyo, on July 1, 2014. Photographer: The Asahi Shimbun via Getty Images

    Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s efforts to allow Japan to defend its allies are meeting opposition from a war-wary public, concerned that broadening the remit of the military could drag the country into a conflict after almost 70 years of peace.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/TzK7Ro

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  201. From Bloomberg, Jul 1, 2014, 12:00:01 PM

    Members of China’s People’s Liberation Army in Beijing. Under the Military Service Law, males in China can apply to enlist when they reach 18. Photographer: Sim Chi Yin/Bloomberg

    The calls started months ago to the
    recruitment office in the eastern Chinese province of Jiangxi,
    asking how much it would cost to pass this year’s tests to join
    the army. The going rate, depending on your “guanxi,” or
    connections: As much as $16,000.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1jHt5YN

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  202. From Bloomberg, Jul 1, 2014, 12:00:01 PM


    Tony Kwok, former deputy commissioner of Hong Kong’s Independent Commission Against Corruption, seen here in a July 29, 2005 file photograph. Photographer: Joel Nito/AFP/Getty Images

    By Shai Oster

    The Hong Kong Independent Commission Against Corruption headquarters in Hong Kong. The ICAC was created 40 years ago with broad powers to investigate and arrest anyone, and answers only to the territory’s top official. Photographer: Jerome Favre/Bloomberg

    July 2 (Bloomberg) – In 1970s Hong Kong, graft was so bad
    expectant mothers had to bribe hospital orderlies for a glass of
    water or a bedpan. Today corruption monitor Transparency
    International
    ranks Hong Kong 15th cleanest of 177 countries.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1quWNHK

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  203. From Bloomberg, Jul 2, 2014, 3:20:01 AM


    Nicolas Sarkozy, France’s former president. Photographer: Jock Fistick/Bloomberg

    Former French President Nicolas Sarkozy was charged with influence peddling, threatening to
    upend his political ambitions.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1rWdREg

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  204. From Bloomberg, Jul 2, 2014, 5:16:54 AM


    June 26 (Bloomberg) — Bank of England Governor Mark Carney speaks at a news confernece in England about the U.K. housing market and the introduction of measures to limit riskier mortgages that may lead to an unsustainable buildup of consumer debt.
    The BOE’s Nils Blythe, Andrew Bailey, Jon Cunliffe and Spencer Dale also participate. (Source: Bloomberg)

    The pound rose to a 21-month high
    versus the euro after a report showed U.K. construction growth
    accelerated in June, adding to signs of strength in the economy.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1kd7jMs

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  205. From Bloomberg, Jul 2, 2014, 5:00:00 AM

    Traci Butler and her husband cut out vacations after the U.S. recession five years ago. This week, the couple is taking their two boys on a weeklong trip that includes a July 4th visit to the nation’s capital, just a few weeks after touring Italy on their own.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/VExcPY

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  206. From Bloomberg, Jul 2, 2014, 5:03:47 AM


    Russian President Vladimir Putin, addressing diplomats in Moscow yesterday, said Poroshenko spurned calls by him and other European leaders to prolong the pause, choosing the path of a military offensive. Photographer: Sasha Mordovets/Getty Images

    Foreign ministers from Ukraine,
    Russia, Germany and France meet in Berlin this afternoon after
    President Petro Poroshenko ended a cease-fire and vowed to
    retake territory from separatists in the violence-torn east.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1rUUfjT

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  207. From Bloomberg, Jul 1, 2014, 1:12:33 PM

    The celebration won’t last.

    As more and more Americans have been introduced this summer to soccer played at the highest level, crushing television ratings of past World Cups, many fans of U.S. Major League Soccer have been rejoicing in an I-told-you-so moment.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/V8fYdc

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  208. From Bloomberg, Jul 1, 2014, 12:01:00 AM

    Plans for the Park Hyatt call for 210 guest rooms starting at $795 a night, spa-treatment suites with private balconies, and amenities such as an indoor pool with underwater speakers that pipe in music from neighboring Carnegie Hall. Source: Park Hyatt New York via Bloomberg

    Hyatt Hotels Corp. (H) is seeking to make its Park Hyatt New York, opening next month at the base of the ultra-luxury One57 condominium tower, Manhattan’s first new five-star hotel in more than a decade.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1iPFKhs

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  209. From Bloomberg, Jul 1, 2014, 12:01:00 AM

    Sales at American sushi restaurants are projected to grow at a 2.6 percent annual rate in the next five years, researcher IBISWorld Inc. said in a September report. Photographer: Lili Rosboch/Bloomberg

    Sushi restaurants in New York and Greenwich, Connecticut, are on a roll, with both cities ranking among the most expensive locales in the U.S. to buy the Japanese cuisine for the third year in a row.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1qt6KWg

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  210. From Bloomberg, Jul 1, 2014, 8:49:22 PM

    China’s Premier Li Keqiang has
    promised to cut credit while also meeting a 7.5 percent economic
    growth target. Record bond sales last quarter show which pledge
    he’s prioritizing.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1jHSnWK

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  211. From Bloomberg, Jul 2, 2014, 4:51:41 AM


    July 2 (Bloomberg) — Jeff Fairburn, chief executive officer of homebuilder Persimmon Plc, discusses the impact of Bank of England efforts to curtail excessive mortgage lending.
    He talks from York, U.K., with Anna Edwards on Bloomberg Television’s “Countdown.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    London home prices jumped the most in 27 years in the second quarter as Nationwide Building Society warned that Bank of England measures to cool the U.K. property market won’t stem further gains in the short term.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1rW9id4

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  212. From Bloomberg, Jul 1, 2014, 9:36:16 PM


    June 27 (Bloomberg) — Mikio Kumada, a Hong Kong-based global strategist at LGT Capital Partners, talks about Japan’s economy, government and central bank policies.
    Japan’s consumer prices climbed at the fastest pace in 32 years, boosted by a sales-tax increase and higher utility charges that are squeezing household budgets as wage gains remain limited. Kumada speaks with Rishaad Salamat and Angie Lau on Bloomberg Television’s “Asia Edge.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Japanese companies forecast sustained
    price gains, providing support for the Bank of Japan’s campaign
    to generate stable inflation.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/TBadU3

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  213. From Bloomberg, Jul 2, 2014, 2:57:44 AM

    Hong Kong’s de facto central bank
    stepped in for the first time since December 2012 to prevent the
    city’s currency from rising against the U.S. dollar.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1qufWcZ

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  214. From Bloomberg, Jul 2, 2014, 3:41:21 AM


    July 2 (Bloomberg) — Jeff Fairburn, chief executive officer of homebuilder Persimmon Plc, discusses the impact of Bank of England efforts to curtail excessive mortgage lending.
    He talks from York, U.K., with Anna Edwards on Bloomberg Television’s “Countdown.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Rules requiring U.K. homebuyers to
    prove they can afford their mortgages after interest rates rise
    have prompted a jump in fraudulent home-loan applications,
    property appraiser e.surv said.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1rWhIB9

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  215. From Bloomberg, Jul 1, 2014, 5:16:26 PM

    July 1 (Bloomberg) — Bloomberg’s Michael McKee reports that the June ISM Manufacturing Index was little changed, falling to 55.3 from 55.4 the previous month. He speaks on “Market Makers.”

    American factories, propelled by the
    strongest orders of the year, sustained gains in June and are
    poised to be part of the rebound in economic growth.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1mgXoen

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  216. From Bloomberg, Jul 1, 2014, 6:00:51 PM

    Should you be worried about Hong Kong. This man is.                                          

    (Corrects status of Donald Tsang to Leung Chun-ying’s predecessor in third paragraph.)

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1m6IiX7

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  217. From Bloomberg, Jul 1, 2014, 5:17:59 PM

    Plenty of Republicans believe most Hispanics who vote on the issue are lost to them no matter what.

    The congressional version of immigration reform is finally completely dead for this Congress. And, as expected, President Barack Obama announced yesterday that he’ll do what he can within current law. Jonathan Chait has an interesting post about some of the reasons and the consequences, but I want to focus on the idea that this helps Democrats in the 2016 presidential race.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1sVfCpm

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  218. From Bloomberg, Jul 1, 2014, 4:06:58 PM


    Getting exactly what he wants.

    There are few things in the world less threatening than a meeting of European diplomats. This was demonstrated yet again today when European Union officials met to discuss how to respond to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s aggression toward Ukraine.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1m6s3cF

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  219. From Bloomberg, Jul 1, 2014, 3:14:02 PM

    Texas makes everything bigger.

    At this summer’s World Series of Poker in Las Vegas, players can test their skills in 16 modern variants of our 200-year-old national card game.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/VD5F1t

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  220. From Bloomberg, Jul 1, 2014, 2:31:20 PM


    Nice paperweight you’ve got there.

    If you want to feel optimistic about U.S. saving habits, read this Medium post by a journalist who paid off six-figure student debt in six years (well done, sir!). If you want to be depressed, read this Time report on how poorly Americans have prepared for nursing home expenses. And if you want to feel downright despondent, check out the latest survey from Bankrate.com on how little people are saving right now. Forget socking it away for a nursing home; most people aren’t prepared for life’s current emergencies. Barely 15 percent of young people have six months’ worth of expenses saved, and the overall average is less than a quarter.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1mhEB2J

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  221. From Bloomberg, Jul 1, 2014, 1:06:00 PM


    This would never have happened in the commodities business.

    There comes a time in every financial blogger’s life when he feels compelled to write a post about dark pools that uses the phrase “latency arbitrage.” So, sorry, but this is that post. The thing is, some of the worrying about high-frequency trading and dark pools is just fear of excessive efficiency, and some of it is just paranoid fantasy. But latency arbitrage is a straightforwardly bad thing, and it is real, and now we need to talk about it.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/V8ee3M

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  222. From Bloomberg, Jul 1, 2014, 7:23:28 PM

    Facebook Inc. (FB) is being investigated
    by the Information Commissioner’s Office in the U.K. after a
    study showed a psychological experiment influenced what users
    saw in their news feeds, raising fresh privacy concerns.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1mi22J7

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  223. From Bloomberg, Jul 2, 2014, 12:01:00 AM

    A single bidder bought a large cache
    of bitcoins at an U.S. government auction, part of a larger pool
    of the virtual currency seized from the Silk Road website.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1mi41NC

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  224. Good Morning. Phil is oil a good short this morning at $105?


  225. Good morning!

    No, oil is not a good short the day before a holiday weekend.  Gasoline (/RB) is a good long at $3.025 with tight stops below.  Tested $3 earlier, that was an excellent long – now we have to be more careful.  

    I'd be more inclined to go long on /CL off the $105 line (as we did yesterday) than short.  It has looked weak but the Dollar is still low (79.89) and, if we figure a 30% bump in consumption for the holiday, figure there's about $500M in excess profits per $1 they drive oil up into tomorrow's close – that's motivation!  

    Asia followed us up but those /NKD shorts I left on from yesterday got back to 15,400 just now and I took the money and ran after burning at 15,475 overnight (but I wisely slept through it, so avoided the stress!).  

    Hang Seng jumped 1.5% while half the town was protesting in the streets, Shanghai up 0.44%, Nikkei officially up 0.3% after all the nonsense, India up 1.27%, Singapore up 0.666%.  Europe up only slightly but Italy pretty happy at 0.72% at the moment.  

    So they're up because we're up and now we'll be up because they are up and the narrative works because no one is actually trading anyway.  The strong volume was all red into the close – as we expected it would be on a pump and dump week.  

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