Posts Tagged ‘Fed’

Will We Hold It Wednesday – Strong Bounce Edition

What an amazing recovery!  

Just one week ago the World was coming to and end and now everyone has their rally caps back on.  Investors really are sheep – except I think sheep have better memories…  We're still right on plan of dropping 10% and then bouncing 4% (strong bounces) by Wednesday (today) that was initiated on October 6th by our friends at the Fed (see yesterday's post for the summary).  For those of you keeping score, our strong bounce predictions for today were:

  • Dow 16,466 (weak) and 16,632 (strong).
  • S&P 1,878 (weak) and 1,903 (strong).
  • Nasdaq 4,280 (weak) and 4,360 (strong).
  • NYSE 10,360 (weak) and 10,540 (strong).  
  • Russell 1,104 (weak) and 1,128 (strong).

INDU WEEKLYThe Dow is just 17 points away from our goal and we'll just need the NYSE and the Russell to confirm their bounce lines and THEN we can get bullish again.  Meanwhile, we actually got a bit more bearish in our Short-Term Portfolio (also in yesterday's post) as our Long-Term Portfolio popped right back to up 18.1% for the year so we wanted to lock those gains in with the STP, which finished the day up 81.8%, down from 92% in the morning as the markets rocketed.  

If the rally is real, the Dow should have no problem at all popping our 16,632 line – after all, it jumped 234 points yesterday but stopped dead right at our strong bounce line.  The…
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Flip Floppin’ Friday – Futures Fly as Fear Fades

obama hugs nurseNothing came of yesterday's Ebola hearings

Here's a picture of President Obama hugging it out with one of the nurses that treated one of the Ebola patients – a strong image for the people as calmer voices begin to prevail – on that front at least.

Markets were also boosted by dovish talk from the usually hawkish Jimmy Bullard, of the St. Louis Fed, who said the Fed should consider delaying plans to end its bond-buying program at the end of this month to halt a decline in expected inflation.  This is what it sounds like when Doves cry at the Fed and, like Prince's mother, the markets are never satisfied but, for this morning at least – we're taking back those weak bounce levels that we told you we'd take back by Friday.  

“The recovery from the lows after Bullard spoke yesterday is another reminder how addicted markets still are to liquidity,” said Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid.  “The Fed can certainly help markets but perhaps we really need the ECB to step up a gear for a true recovery,” he added.

SPY DAILYStill, manipulated or not, this gives us two nice reversal days on strong volume and we couldn't be happier as we flipped very bullish in our Short-Term Portfolio and should be able to take full advantage of this rapid recovery.  

Whether or not we maintain that bullish stance into the weekend depends on how our bounce levels hold up today (see Tuesday morning's post for our amazingly accurate predictions of the week's action).  

Keep that in mind when I tell you there is nothing particularly bullish about hitting the weak bounce on the Friday of a drop week – it's merely better than the alternative of FAILING to make those weak bounce lines.  That would have been BAD!!!  Meanwhile, those of you who took our FREE Trade Idea from yesterday's morning post to go long the Russell at 1,050 (the same line we were watching on Tuesday) are now sitting on $4,000 PER CONTRACT gains and I do so hope you are not greedy and set your stops at the 1,090 line.  


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Weakening Wednesday – Market Picture Begins to Look Grim

This is not pretty.

As you can see on our Big Chart, we've failed the 50 dma on the S&P, Nasdaq, NYSE and Russell and the Russell failed its 200 dma long ago.  We're still waiting for the Dow to cross below 16,940 and confirm the carnage but we made those bets long ago with our DXD Oct $24 calls, which are now 0.70 (up 55%) from our 0.45 entry back on 9/18.

In fact, we already took 1/2 of those calls off the table at 0.85 last week so, essentially, the remainder is a free put option on the Dow for the next three weeks – with DXD at $24.45, so we gain every penny from here on up as the Dow falls.  

That's what hedges are supposed to do, of course.  We discussed that in yesterday's Live Trading Webinar, where we also demonstrated a live Futures trade on the Russell (/TF Futures) that made $500 on the 2:30 bounce.  That bounce was very easy to predict because THE MARKET IS MANIPULATED and all we had to do was wait for the same fake spike that we get at the end of every quarter, courtesy of the Fed and their fellow Banksters:

SPY  5  MINUTEWhat's scary about yesterday's flood of money ($230Bn in two days) wasn't just the size of the pump job, but the ineffectiveness of it.  The volume was still anemic and declining shares outpaced advancing shares by almost 2:1 in yesterday's "mixed" trading.  

In reality, it wasn't mixed at all as big traders took advantage of every penny that moved into the market as they told their brokers to sell, SELL!!!

Still, it's not the end of the World just yet – only close to it, and we can still turn this puppy around by holding the line on the Dow as well as Russell 1,100 and Nasdaq 4,500.  This market has been amazingly resiliant in 2014 so we're not going to be complacently bearish the same way we (thank goodness) did not let ourselves get complacently bullish this summer.  


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Monday Market Target – S&P 2,000 or BUST!

SPY 5 MINUTEAs usual on Friday, more volume = more selling

Still, there's no reason to expect volume to come back and that means the markets can go back to drifting higher when the bars are lower and that can get us all the way to S&P 2,000, but over that line is going to be a tough trick

Our weekend reading from our Member Chat Room produced the usual litany of woes with the usual suspects:  

ISIS, Putin, China, Gaza, Ebola and Draghi causing the usual damage aided by newcomers like an earthquake in San Francisco, a volcano in Iceland, a nuclear scare in Belgium - but none are as scary as French President and Austerity Radical, Francois Holland, dissolving his Government because they disagreed with him.  

Screen Shot 2014 08 22 at 2.32.24 PMIn interviews with the French press and speeches at a Socialist gathering Sunday, Economy Minister Arnaud Montebourg and Education Minister Benoît Hamon said forcibly reducing budget deficits as the economy wilts is driving up unemployment, fueling political extremism and risks tipping the economy into recession.  "The priority must be exiting crisis and the dogmatic reduction of deficits should come second," Mr. Montebourg said in an interview with Le Monde.

The criticism came at a difficult moment for the French president, who said earlier this week he will push ahead with a three-year plan to cut public spending to fund tax cuts for business even as the economy stagnates – so he fired them all!  As in the US, Businesses continued cutting investment in the second quarter despite receiving the first payouts from labor-tax reductions.

"Promising to get the economy going again, on the path to growth and full employment, hasn't worked. Honesty obliges us to acknowledge this," Mr. Montebourg said in a speech to supporters. "The role of the economy minister and any statesman in his place is to confront the truth—even it is cruel—and propose alternative solutions," he added.

8-22-2014 5-24-48 PM Yellen


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Thrilling Thursday – Will Jackson Hole Give us S&P 2,000?

SPY 5 MINUTEI could take today off.  

Why?  Because I already wrote this article last month, on a Thursday, when the S&P was at 1,988 and topped out at 1,991, which was $199.06 on SPY and, as you can see from Dave Fry's chart, SPY topped out at $199.16 yesterday (before plunging back to $198.90 on strong volume into the close).  

Will this time be different?  I certainly hope so because last time, we plunged about 5%, back to 1,904 over the next 10 sessions and it's taken us another 10 to claw our way back for another attempt at an all-time high.

In our Live Member Chat this morning, we shorted the run-up in the Futures at Dow 16,990 (/YM), S&P 1,985 (/ES), Nasdaq 4,045 (/NQ) and Russell 1,155 (/TF) because, as I said to our Members:

I'm sorry but I simply can't reconcile this news with what's going on in the markets so I'm going to continue to lose money hedging to make sure we keep what we have.  The alternative is going to cash but there is simply no way I can endorse getting more bullish on this market at this point.  

NDX WEEKLYOne major difference this time is we DON'T have money flowing out of SPY (as much), as we did last month and we DO have the Fed's Jackson Hole conference tomorrow, which looks to Global Investors like a Santa Claus convention with Yellen, Draghi, Carney and Kuroda sitting under the spruce trees with gigantic bags of FREE MONEY – and that's why traders are as giddy as kids before Christmas this week.

But, Virginia, is there really a Santa Claus, or are the bulls hopes and dreams about to be crushed by cruel economic realities they have, so far, been avoiding like the plague (or Ebola)?  Realities like China's horrific PMI this morning, that dropped from 51.7 to 50.3 (barely positive) and France's PMI, which is back in heavy contraction at 46.5 this morning.  Retail Sales…
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Free Money Thursday – More Bad News is Good News for the Bulls

gdpEurope is not growing.

Italy, Romania and Cyprus are in Recession (2 consecutive negative quarters) and Belgium dropped 75%, Czech 100% (to zero), Germany down 130%, Latvia down 85%, Hungary down 30%, Poland down 45%…  These are NOT GOOD numbers!  

Yesterday we got a -1.7% reading on Japan, down over 200% from last quarter's +1.5%.  Our own GDP grew at just 1% from last Q, which itself was down 0.5% from the quarter before it but, fortunately, last year's Q2 was so terrible that, by comparison to that – we improved by 2.4% – and that somehow made people happy.  

The euro zone's three largest economies, which account for two-thirds of the region's €9.6T ($12.8T) GDP, all did not post any growth. German GDP shrank 0.2% from the first quarter and Italy's output fell at a similar pace. The French economy, the bloc's second largest behind Germany, stagnated for a second straight quarter.  How, exactly, does this translate into a bullish signal for the markets?  

The answer is: It doesn't.  The bullishness is nothing more than anticipation of MORE FREE MONEY over longer periods of time and that is, indeed good for our Corporate Citizens and the top 1% Human Citizens lucky enough to own them (we own lots in our Long-Term Portfolios!) as they are able to refinance debt at record lows and buy back their own stock with free money and buy whole other companies with free money – all supplied their friendly Central Banksters as well as the suckers who put their hard-earned cash into banks and bonds at 1% interest.  

That's right, the yeild on the German 10-Year Bund has dropped to 1% today.  Auntie Angela will hold $1M of your money for 10 years and give you back $1,100,000 when she's done – isn't that FANTASTIC!  It sure is for those of us who get to borrow that money – not so much for people trying to save.  

The solution is, of course, to put your money into stocks – which is exactly what is happening now and that is why the global markets are flying – even when
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$10,000 Tuesday – One Trade To Make Your Month!

RUT WEEKLYHow would you like to make $10,000?

If the Russell can finish this option period (24 days) 2.5% higher, at 1,178 or higher, we can turn net $1,000 or less cash into $10,000 for you.  After all, if the Fed is going to give away money – why shouldn't we get our share?

I'll preface this by saying that our Members are already long on Russell Futures at the 1,150 line, as we made that call in our live Member Chat Room (become a Member here) earlier this morning.   

If the market is going to remain bullet-proof (and missile-proof too, it seems) then the RUT is now the lagging index and we can construct a play to take advantage of it breaking back up by making a play on TNA, the 3x Ultra-Long Russell ETF.  

Very simply, if we buy the August $72.50 calls for $3.45 and we sell the Aug $76.50 calls for $1.70, we have a net cost of $1.75 on the $4 spread that's $4.64 out of the money (at goal) and that's 6.4% out of the money so, to be safe, we'll need a 2.5% gain on the Russell, from 1,150 to 1,178.75 to make the full $4.  25 contracts at $4 = $10,000 so we can work with that.

But what about the cost of the 25 contracts (at $1.70 x 2,500, that's $4,250)?  Well, there's a couple of ways to offset that.  One way is to sell 25 TNA Aug $65 puts for $1.70 to offset the cost.  The danger there is, if the Russell goes down 2.5% (to 1,121) or lower, we'll be assigned 2,500 shares of TNA for $65 ($162,500) – that could be unpleasant. 

Instead, we can commit to being long TNA at $45 in 2016 by selling just 5 2016 $45 puts for $8, and that raises $4,000 and commits us to owning "just" 500 shares of TNA at $45 per share ($22,500).  

Now, if you don't want to be bullish on the Russell when TNA is down 37% (Russell 1,006), then why are you long on it at 1,150?  


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Meaningless Monday – Waiting for Yellen to Testify Tomorrow

We're got our strong bounces on Friday – now we'll see if they hold up! .  

As you can see from our big chart, we still have Spitting Cobra patterns forming on all but the Russell, which has turned into a Vomiting Cobra, spilling all the way down to the 50 dma at 1,150.  We're still below the Weak Bounce Line on the NYSE – so we'll watch that closely and the Russell needs to get over their Strong Bounce at 1,170 to confirm:  

  • Dow 17,050 to 16,800 is 250 in 3 days so you need to make a strong bounce in 1.5 days in order to have a chance at a V recovery.  Bounces would be 50 points so 16,850 and 16,900 are what we'll watch.  
  • S&P 1,985 to 1,955 is 30 points so 6-point bounces to 1,961 and 1,967 will be our targets. 
  • Nasdaq 4,485 to 4,360 (now I'm rounding) is 125 so 25-point bounces to 4,385 and 4,410.
  • NYSE 11,100 to 10,900 is 200 points so 40-point bounces to 10,940 and 10,980.
  • Russell 1,208 to 1,140 is 68 points and we'll call that 14-point bounces for 1,155 (rounding) and 1,170

SPX WEEKLYAlso key, of course, is the 3 of 5 red signals on our Must Hold line on our Big Chart™ - only the NYSE is likely to make it over today, with a 64-point move (0.5%) taking it back to 11,000 – certainly that's not asking too much before we flip to some more bullish betting, is it?  

We still have 29 stocks on our Buy List (Members Only) and, since they dynamically update, it's very easy to see that about 1/2 of them haven't gotten away yet and are still playable for dip buying.  We also have 29 more stocks from our old Long-Term Portfolio, which we liquidated on May 29th – and that is full of great trade ideas as well.  

We just did Week 4 for our our May Trade Review over the weekend and we slipped to 73% that week (ending 5/23) which brought us down to 84% for the month with 158 out of 197 trade ideas on the winning side.  Still, going from 125-17 to 158-29 was an early indicator that we were losing
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Monday Mayhem – FBI Busts 22 Penny Stock Scammers

Operation "Penny Pincher" nabbed 22 penny stock pumpers.

As I often point out to our Members, a stock doesn't have to be a penny to be a penny stock – any stock with a market cap under $100M is generally what we're talking about – regardless of the share price.  

That's because the stock can be easily influenced by exactly the kind of action the FBI proved is RAMPANT in this industry – a single trader can, for a fee, move money into the stock and send the prices skyrocketing – then press releases are put out to whip retail investors into a frenzy and they follow with their money and, usually, get burned.  

Of course, the same thing happens with mid-cap stocks as well and even large-caps – it's just that the people manipulating those stocks are generally better at covering their tracks!  22 is the number of people the FBI caught in the short period of time an operation like this can run before word gets out that their cover people are conducting a sting.  Imagine how many other must be out there!

Obviously the markets are manipulated.  We know CEOs and their Boards worry about the stock price – the minute they begin to worry about the stock price, manipulation is sure to follow.  That's the way the system is designed.  We have a Fed who worries about the price of the market and they manipulate it too!  It's our job simply to be aware of the manipulation and take it into account in our trading and investing decisions.  

Back on June 12th, I began a series of articles pointing out that oil and gasoline prices were being manipulated into the holiday weekend.  Oil shot up to $107.68 that day and stayed between $105 and $107.50 through June but the EXTREME lack of actual demand we warned you about.  This morning, oil is below $104 and up $3,500 per contract from a short at $107.50 – a trade idea we highlighted for our readers Friday morning, June 13th

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Tricky Tuesday – Fed Funds Fake EOQ

6-30-2014 6-10-45 PM Fixed RateThank you Fed may we have another?

And, by another, I mean another $340Bn that the Fed paid out to their Bankster buddies in "Reverse Repo" purchases at the end of the month.  That's right, the Fed essentially bought THE ENTIRE STOCK MARKET (in terms of transaction value) from the banks over the last few days of June and THAT injection of cash is how they kept the rally going into the end of the quarter.  

As you can see from the NY Fed's own chart (via Dave Fry and Zero Hedge), this kind of charity buying isn't unusual for the Fed – more like Standard Operating Procedure to inflate equity prices into the end of each quarter.  Does it work?  Sure, look at the results:

As you can see - as the market gets more and more expensive, it takes more and more money to push it higher.  Also note the Fed tweaked (hopefully not twerked – there's an image of Yellen I don't want burned in my mind!) their timing to move it close and closer to the very last day, to maximize their bang for the buck.  

SPX WEEKLYUNFORTUNATELY, as you can see from the S&P chart above, these effects are short-term and demand a correction in the not too distant future. 

What's very interesting is that our stimulus theory is still holding up.  We developed this back in 2012, through observation of the effect of Central Banksters market meddling on Global Equities and it turns out that $10Bn per quarter buys 1 S&P point.  Look how perfectly that aligns on the chart!  

Bill Dudley, New York Fed president, warned last month that if use of the repo facility were to grow too quickly it might “result in a large amount of disintermediation out of banks through money market funds and other financial intermediaries into the facility. This could encourage further enlargement of the shadow banking system.”

Hey, a little enlargement of the Shadow Banking system never hurt anyone, did it China?  China, in fact, also pitched in with more stimulus of their own by changing the…
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Zero Hedge

$100 Oil Is A Distinct Possibility

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Nick Cunningham via Oilprice.com,

An oil price spike is starting to look increasingly possible, with a rerun of 2008 not entirely out of the question, according to a new report.

The outages from...



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ValueWalk

Kase Learning Shorting Conference: Limited-Time Offer

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Shorting Conference: Limited-time offer for my newsletter subscribers!

We had an incredibly positive response to our inaugural Kase Learning Shorting Conference back in May. Many attendees capitalized on some of the fantastic actionable short ideas presented that day.

On Monday, December 3, we’ll be hosting our second Shorting Conference at the NY Athletic Club. We’re also going to be livestreaming the entire day if you cannot attend in person.

...



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Phil's Favorites

10 Years and 10 Lessons from the Financial Crisis

 

10 Years and 10 Lessons from the Financial Crisis

Courtesy of Cullen Roche, Pragmatic Capitalism 

10 years. It feels like yesterday. Then again, sometimes when I look at the economic data it feels like it never even happened. Whether you feel like the crisis is a distant memory or still lingering I think we can all agree that these kinds of big events serve as important lessons for understanding how we will navigate the future. So, 10 years later, here are 10 big lessons I take away from the financial crisis:

  1. Fear wins in the short-term and loses in the long-term. This is probably the number one lesson from the crisis. Human beings have been making tremendous progress for thousands of years. The fina...


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Kimble Charting Solutions

Canadian Dollar Attempting Bullish Breakout

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Since 2011, the Canadian Dollar has been hit hard, losing nearly a third of its value, while creating a series of lower highs and lower lows.

After declining nearly 30% into the lows of 2016, the Canadian Dollar has been attempting to change its long-term trend as it has created a series of higher lows inside of rising channel (2).

Over the past few months, rising support has been tested several times. Currently, it is attempting to break above falling resistance at (3), inside of the rising cha...



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Insider Scoop

10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Tuesday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

  • Morgan Stanley raised NuVasive, Inc. (NASDAQ: NUVA) price target from $55 to $77. NuVasive shares closed at $68.40 on Monday.
  • Citigroup cut the price target for Lam Research Corporation (NASDAQ: LRCX) from $216 to $177. Lam Research shares closed at $154.74 on Monday.
  • Stifel Nicolaus boosted the price target on Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: ALXN) from $130 to $136. Alexion Pharmaceuticals shares closed at $128.51 on Monday Monday.
  • ...


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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Sep 23, 2018

Courtesy of Blain.

More saber rattling between China and the U.S. did little to distract the market.

On Tuesday, President Donald Trump reiterated his hard-line stance on China during a news conference with Polish President Andrzej Duda and said the U.S. had “no choice” but to levy another $267 billion in duties on China. That would come on top of announced tariffs on about $200 billion in Chinese goods announced late Monday.  China responded with tariffs of 5% to 10% on $60 billion worth of U.S. products that will take effect Sept. 24, and said it may introduce more measures if the U.S. goes ahead with higher tariffs.

This seems to be the prevailing thought process, ...



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Members' Corner

Why obvious lies still make good propaganda

 

This is very good; it's about "firehosing", a type of propaganda, and how it works.

Why obvious lies still make good propaganda

A 2016 report described Russian propaganda as:
• high in volume
• rapid, continuous and repetitive
• having no commitment to objective reality
• lacking consistency

...

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Digital Currencies

Mania to Mania

 

Mania to Mania

Courtesy of 

“Russell rarely played the stock market and had little investing experience when he put around $120,000 into bitcoin in November 2017.”

This comes from a CNN money article, Bitcoin crash: This man lost his savings when cryptocurrencies plunged. From January 2017 through the peak in early 2018, Ethereum gained 16,915%.

Any time you have something go vertical, you just know that some peopl...



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Biotech

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Gene-editing technique CRISPR identifies dangerous breast cancer mutations

Breast cancer type 1 (BRCA1) is a human tumor suppressor gene, found in all humans. Its protein, also called by the synonym BRCA1, is responsible for repairing DNA. ibreakstock/Shutterstock.com

By Jay Shendure, University of Washington; Greg Findlay, ...



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Mapping The Market

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

Via Jean-Luc:

Famed investor reflecting on his mistakes:

Mistakes were Made. (And, Yes, by Me.)

One that stands out for me:

Instead of focusing on how value factors in general did in identifying attractive stocks, I rushed to proclaim price-to-sales the winner. That was, until it wasn’t. I guess there’s a reason for the proclamation “The king is dead, long live the king” when a monarchy changes hands. As we continued to update the book, price-to-sales was no longer the “best” single value factor, replaced by others, depending upon the time frames examined. I had also become a lot more sophisticated in my analysis—thanks to criticism of my earlier work—and realized that everything, including factors, moves in and out of favor, depending upon the market environment. I also realized...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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