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Toppy Tuesday – GS and JPM Reap the Rewards of Market Manipulation

$9 Billion Dollars!  

That's how much Goldman Sachs (GS) took in in revenues in the second quarter.  They then used $1.25Bn of it (14%) to buy back their own stock at an average cost of $161 per share and reduced the total number of shares by 17% which allowed them to "beat" estimates by earning $4.10 per share vs $3.70 last year (10.8% more).

That's right – it's a scam!  The same scam GS advises it's client companies to do with their own stocks to APPARENTLY inflate their earnings while, in reality, earnings are fairly flat.  The same scam, incidentally, GS had the entire country of Greece do – before that whole thing collapsed and took the Global economy with it a few years ago!  

By trading heavily from inside this fishbowl, GS was able to bump up their Investment and Lending Revenues by 46%, to $2.07Bn and all those little moves allowed GS employees to take 46% of the profits in compensation – up 6% from last year at $3.92Bn, which is really cool as GS only has 32,600 employees – so that's $1.2M per employee but, somehow, I think the top 326 (0.1%) get a bit more than the other 32,274, don't you? 

You would think GS shareholders would be angry that 50% of their revenues go to compensation.  After all, a hedge fund only takes 20% of the profits as salary (and that plus 2% of AUM also covers the cost of all operations) but GS, after taking $3.92Bn, drops just $2Bn to the bottom line for their investors or, in other words, GS is like a hedge fund that takes 66% of the profits!  

Still, with a p/e of 10, that 33% bone they throw investors is enough to keep them happy but, as with everything else, consider the conditions under which GS is able to make $6Bn in salaries and profits on $9Bn in revenues – Endless Free Money from the Fed, a stock market fueled by Mergers and Buybacks using the same Free Money, massive market manipulation by Central Banks around the World – many of whom are run by former GS employees and most of whom are advised by GS.  Perhaps this is as good as it gets for them?  

I'm not calling for a short on GS, yet – we'll just be watching them closely as a fantastic short once the market does turn down.  Back in 2008 they fell from $250 to $50 (80%) and, so far, they are only back to $170 – so let's give the beautiful sheeple a chance to run in before we sharpen our knives.  

Over $175 will be a bit tricky for GS because that's where they were rejected in early 2011 before tumbling to $85 (-50%) by the end of that year.  $180 for GS will mark a 100% climb since May 2012 but they were already rejected there early in January and fell back to $155 (14%), but, as noted, since then they've bought back a lot of their own stock at an average of $160 to "fix" things.  

Remember, we don't care IF the market is fixed as long as we can understand HOW the market is fixed and place our bets accordingly!  

RUT WEEKLYThis morning, for example, we were able to play the Russell Futures (/TF) bullish off the 1,160 line in our Live Member Chat Room (you can join us here) just after the GS earnings were announce.  

The Russell has nothing at all to do with GS earnings, so it was the laggy index (fresh horse) as the others took off so it was easy money to take it long off that strong support line and already, just one hour after my call for our Members, it's up $350 per contract at $163.50.  Now we can set a stop at $163 and lock in a $300 gain and our Egg McMuffins are paid for!  

We have a Live Trading Webinar this afternoon at 1pm EST, where we will be discussing Futures Trading Techniques – come join us HERE.  

Speaking of Futures, oil (/CL) is failing $100 just a week after we come back from the July 4th holidays – exactly as we predicted when it was $107.50 three weeks ago.  If you want to know what "banging the table" is on a trade, just check out my articles from June 12th to June 20th:

Oil was still $106.50 on Friday, June 20th and, had President Obama (or you) followed my advice to short all 314,447 open August oil contacts at $107.50, that $7,500 per contract gain could have made $2.36Bn in less than 30 days.  That's more than GS made all quarter!  Ha!  Who needs GS when we have Oil Futures to trade?  

As I said – we'll be doing our Webinar today at 1pm, EST, but we're done with oil for now – more likely we'll be looking to short some of the indexes as they re-test their highs like Dow (/YM) below 17,000, S&P (/ES) below 1,175, Nasdaq (/NQ) below 3,930 and if the Russell FAILS 1,160, we'll be happy to flip short for another ride down to 1,150.  

Yellen speaks to the Senate at 10 and that is unlikely to kill the market but maybe in the afternoon, without new promises of MORE FREE MONEY – some of the air will begin to leak out of the market.  


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  1. From Monday post -

    Phil, A technical question for you on your favorite topic, the Butterfly.  I hold the BTU July $16 short call, sold at $0.83, now $0.14 with the stock at $15.84.  Given the downward trend of late is it smart to just let the call expire or best to buy it back (considering risk and transaction costs).  I plan to sell Aug. $16 calls.  I also held the July $16 short put but bought that back for a gain as the stock dropped below the strike price.  I'm considering selling the Aug. $15 puts also.  You thoughts would be appreciated.

  2. "Advice is a free gift that can become expensive for the one who gets it." 

     — Armenian proverb

  3. Good article on Nate Silver's new site:

    Another way of calibrating payouts is to compare them with the amounts companies invest. The graph below shows that the ratio of payouts to investment (measured as spending on new capital, such as plants and equipment, as well as research and development) for U.S. companies is about 30 percent historically, meaning that companies have usually invested about three-quarters of the cash they earn. Beginning in 2001, however, this ratio climbs steadily, to the point that firms are now paying out, relative to investments, about twice as much as ever before.


    The bottom-line is that market pressures — investors’ insatiable desire for ever-larger dividends and buybacks — are forcing large U.S. companies, which are vital to our economy, to pay out more cash than ever before, raising questions about where their future earnings — and, ultimately, the U.S.’s overall economic growth — will come from. Equally troubling, this mania for buyouts is taking place when the market is at record highs, in part to try and juice earnings to sustain these valuations. Not to be a doomsayer, but is hard to see how all of this ends well.

  4. whoa.
    /CL 99.75


  5. Good morning!  

    CNBC is now advertising for the Online Trading Academy and I took a look and I don't know whether to get in on this scam or market against it.  They charge $3,995 for a two-day seminar and send you off with some DVDs and that's the last they ever see of you!  Not that I don't like talking to you guys every day but, geeze – I am doing this the wrong way!  

    Anyway, GS and JPM and the tobacco deal are giving us a nice, final thrust into Yellen's testimony – the timing is perfect.  We'll see how things go between now and lunch but the open isn't all that great, up just 0.2ish, led by XLF at $23.  

    Empire Manufacturing came in fantastic:

    • July Empire State Survey25.6 vs. 17.80 expected, 19.28 prior.
    • New Orders: 18.8 vs. 18.36 prior.
    • Shipments: 23.6 vs. 14.15 prior.

    Retail Sales, not so much:

    • June Retail Sales+0.2% to $439.9B vs. +0.6% expected, +0.5% prior (revised from +0.3%).
    • Ex-auto +0.4% vs. +0.6% expected, +0.4% prior (revised from +0.1).
    • ICSC Retail Store Sales: +0.1.% W/W, vs. +1.7% last week.
    • +4.5% Y/Y vs. +3.3% last week.
    • y/y recorded one of the very strongest rates of the whole recovery for this series.
    • June Import/Export Prices: Export prices -0.4% M/M vs. consensus of +0.2% and +0.1% prior.+0.2% Y/Y.
    • Import prices +0.1% M/M vs. consensus of +0.4% and +0.1% prior (revised). +1.2% Y/Y.

  6. Good Morning!

  7. Oil – Phil
    Tweet / what are we cash in in ?

  8. OPTT getting hammered even further today. Time to stop the bleeding?

  9. Posted the wrong oil lines:

    R3 – 102.39
    R2 – 101.80
    R1 – 101.40
    PP – 100.81
    S1 – 100.43
    S2 – 99.83
    S3 – 99.45

    Getting close to S3.

  10. SODA losing some its fizzle and making 2 year lows now! Pretty ugly chart… Even Cramer was bad mouthing them last night. Although could be a sign of a bottom!

  11. Non Sequitur by Wiley Miller :-)

  12. scaling into DBA

  13. any earnings play on IBM ?  ( 7/17 )

  14. Pretty brave Wombat…

  15. Phil / QQQ – Should I adjust my Aug 93.5 QQQ puts I bought as protection over the weekend?

  16. Butterflies/Sibe – So much fun!  There's no "rule" for this, you have to use your head.  BTU topped out yesterday at $16.08 and the short FRIDAY $16 calls you sold are still .15, though the stock is at $15.94.  Since you intend to sell Aug calls anyway, if you sell those calls today, you would be making roughly the same gain or loss as BTU moves up and down as your current July calls but you WOULD NOT be making the 0.3 per day that you are GUARANTEED to make as the premium decays on the July calls.  So, what would the logic be for you to pay .21 in premium (.15 cost and .06 in position) for the July $16s today?  

    You could, since you are selling Aug puts and calls, sell both today and just let the July $16s do what they may.  It's risky, of course, but not likely to burn you for more than .50, which is net .35 vs the .15 you'd pay now and then you'd have the short puts (.30) on the way to expiring worthless.  Of course, with the short puts, why sell Aug $15s for .30 when you can sell 2016 $15 puts for $2.40?  If BTU does drop 10% ($1.50) to $14.50, you will take an actual .20 loss on the Aug $15 puts (more if you panic early) while the 2016 puts may show a loss but your net is $12.60 and you'd still be 15% above it.  

    If BTU goes up 10% to $17.50, you'd collect your .30 from the short Aug puts but now, to get another .30, you would have to sell Sept $16 puts.  So, while you may collect more money in monthly sales (in theory), you are constantly forced to take higher and higher risks to make that money as the stock goes up while taking $2.40 up front (8 months worth of sales) means the short puts would just get further and further out of the money as BTU climbs.

    That's why I rarely sell short puts like that, especially on a stock that I think is way too low.  In our Butterfly Porfolio, we aggressively sold the Jan $18 puts for $3.40 (now $2.90) because, even if we get badly burned by a short call sale (we don't have one on at the moment because BTU was too low) we'll make it up on that short put.  

    In the end, it comes down to how much you REALLY want to own BTU should they drop below $15. 

    Advice/Diamond – I like that scam in Online Trading Academy where they "guarantee" you will make your $3,995 back by offering you UP TO another year of free lessons.  As the author of that article notes, that kind of ignores the money you lose while you learn and isn't really a guarantee, since they still keep the money.  

    Meanwhile, speaking of scams – MoMos giving up a bit of yesterday's gains.  Looking good for our short call sales with TSLA back at $223 and NFLX down to $448 already.  Stops should now be used with the short TSLA $230s at $1.80 (up 47% in a day) and NFLX $455s at $3.30 (up 61%).  I'd stop if NFLX goes over $450 or TSLA goes over $225.   Why risk such nice, quick gains – there will be plenty of others during earnings season.  

    Interesting, Sibe, not only do we get better mileage but we're traveling less.  

    Conumption/StJ – In other words the carpet-baggers are sucking the country dry as they prepare to pull up roots and move on to the next place they can exploit.  Happens all the time.  

    Oil/Wombat – We're done with those shorts at $100 but not SCO, which is in the money and likely to stay there.

    OPTT/Palotay – If you are trading it, then out.  If you are in for the long haul, then good time to accumulate.  It will be a long time for them to slog through these shareholder lawsuits.  

    SODA/StJ – See, I wish I had a Daily Show staff so I could put together all the clips of Cramer and CNBC boosting SODA.  Remember when they had a taste test on SODA and Mark died the next day?  Coincidence, I don't think so….  They pumped it from $55 to $77 last summer and it finished the year at $44, now $29 – yet no arrests will be made.

    There goes 1,160 on the RUT (/TF) game on for that short!  Watch 17,000 on /YM to confirm (and that's the laggard if you missed /TF).  

  17. Keep an eye on VLO … if it breaks the 200dma, it might be a tradable short, but if it bounces off of the 200dma, it may be a tradable long. Nonetheless, if you play it, SCALE in …

  18. Don't forget, Yellen's speech is prepared and circulated so up to the Q&A is not surprising anyone.  

  19. cashing out Jul – March /CL spreads  + 16K – thank you Janet – may I have another ; >

  20. wombat, morning

    if you get a chance i would be interested in you sharing your jul-mar icl spread and the thinking behind it i.e. the 16 k….#of contracts etc….tks

  21. Holy crap, look at /TF go!  Stop at 1,155 now.  Wow!  

    IBM/Wombat – Too soon to guess as we haven't had other tech earnings yet.  We're long IBM from $10 ago so I certainly don't think they'll tank but $200 will be tough to justify this Q so a middle of the road move is likely but the Aug $180 puts are just $1.40 and the Aug $200 calls are .67 so, for net $2, I sure wouldn't want to risk selling them both in the hopes IBM moves less than 5% in a month.  Therefore, not worth playing.  

    QQQ/Pfehl – Depends why you bought them.  If your longs are up nicely and you want to lock in the gains, then sure, take some of the profits from that side and roll them up.  QQQ is at $95.72, up from $94 last week so very capable of quick $1.50 moves (1.5%).  Since you are now $3 out of the money, you need 2 nice moves to get back in it but, if you spend net .50 to roll from the $93 puts to the $95 puts, you are then less than $1 out of the money.  I don't know what you spent originally, I know I liked the Aug $94 puts at $1.03 on Friday, those are now $.83 and cost .30 to roll up to the $95s so net $1.33 on the $1.14 puts is not a bad position.  

    VLO/Diamond – You need to look at how fast gas prices (their sales) fell compared to oil (their input cost).  My guess is the rapid drop in oil is a net positive for them at the moment, so be careful.   Also, VLO is a very good operator, I prefer to short TSO, their poor cousin.  

    TSO – To short them our premise is that there will be a miss this Q as the crack spread narrows.  Earnings are late July so how about the Aug $55/50 bear put spread at $1.10 and you can leave it at that as it's a great $3.90 gain if we get it right (345%) but you can also buy 5 of them ($550) and sell 2 June $55 puts ($1.97) for $394 and then you are into the spread for net $156 with plenty of time to roll the short puts if they dip sooner than we think.  

    Very nice Wombat!  

    $99.50 on oil.  They are in danger of a major breakdown if this keeps going.  XOM is still a fun way to play it at $102.35, the Aug $100 puts are just $1 – let's add 5 of those to the $25KP.  

    From Friday:

    XOM, CVX/Scott – Maybe something to do with the fact that the stuff they sell is down more than 5% for the month….  I do like them both for shorts – especially if oil fails $100.  CVX Aug $125 puts very reasonable at $1.35 and XOM Aug $105/100 bear put spread is more conservative at $3.20 with XOM at $101.70 so no premium and $1.80 upside potential (56%) if XOM doesn't hold $100.  

  22. Phil

    INTC  I have the Jan 15 22/27 bcs ITM at 4.85 I am going to close/ roll

    What would be a new trade or should I  roll this out


  23. OPTT/PHIL--it is nice selling puts.  my average selling price of the 2016 $2.50's is $1.23, obligating me to buy at net of $1.27.   OPTT now trading at $1.22.  So only down about 3%.  I might sell some more at $1.50 to bring my net down.  Would you buy the stock outright?

  24. OK, here we go with the start of fun earnings tonight:

    Consensus Estimate – $0.52
    Whisper Number – $0.53
    Average Move – 3.2%
    Priced into Options – 4.4%

    Consensus Estimate – $0.52
    Whisper Number – $0.54
    Average Move – 4.7%
    Priced into Options – 2.8%

    Consensus Estimate – $0.38
    Whisper Number – $0.40
    Average Move – 7.5%
    Priced into Options – 4.6%

    EW bullish on CSX, YHOO and neutral on INTC. Big question mark with YHOO though on the Alibaba deal.

  25. Phil – Re: VLO … It is a possible tradable chart setup that I am pointing out, not a long term short or long position. The 200dma (on the chart) shows that it is important. In the last week it has twice broken it intraday, recovering both times before the close. The price is now coming back to retest it. If it bounces again, that is VERY positive (go long), but if the retest fails (the chart is already very bearish), then going short on a TRADE would be the play. You are right fundamentally long term, but in the short term, the price is ALWAYS the boss! ;-)

  26. Goaaaaaaaaaaallllllllllllllllllllllll! on /TF at 1,150!  That's a nice way to pick up $1,000 in 30 minutes!  This is what keeps me from being a full-time poker player – poker takes too long to make money…

    INTC/QC – Well, that spread is now net $4.80 so it's pointless to keep it, tying up $4.80 to make .20 in 6 months is just silly.  I'd walk away and find something else to play.  Maybe INTC pulls back or maybe it gets away and you'll have to find a new bargain stock but this horse is far from fresh.  If you can't live without INTC in the portfolio, you can sell 2016 $25s for $1.19 and buy the $30/35 bull call spread for $1.90 and that's net .71 on the $5 spread that's $1.50 in the money to start.  Worst case is you are back in at $25.  Still, not for me as they are at the top of the channel.  

    OPTT/Lunar – I would buy the stock if they came out with $1.50 calls to sell but, otherwise, no reason to own it at the moment.  

    YHOO/StJ – We have our earnings/Alibaba play on them already:

    YHOO/Albo – Why not just buy YHOO?  YHOO is $35Bn and owns 22% of AliB while SFTBY is $91Bn and owns 33% of AliB, so you get a lot more bang for your buck with YHOO, whose forward p/e is only 19, than SFTBY, whose forward p/e is about 17 – so not all that significant.  Of course, more significantly is the potential impact of (guessing) $50Bn worth of AliB on a $35Bn company!  

    So we don't even have to go crazy if we want to play the "YHOO is undervalued" game.  The Jan $38/45 bull call spread is $1.60 on the $8 spread with 400% upside if YHOO gains 28%.  I think that's worth $800 for 5 shares in the $25KP (stop at $400) and $4,800 for 30 in the STP with a stop at $2,400.

  27. VLO – Long or Short … the 200dma is your obvious stop!

  28. It's amazing how little these Senators know about the economy and QE.  If they just read this site they'd be 10x smarter.  Charles Schumer sounded like an idiot.

  29. VLO/Diamond – You see a short because of squiggly lines, I see support at the 200 dma after people who don't understand the fundamentals of refinery profits panic out of VLO ahead of earnings.  It's fine for day-trading, but you won't get day-trading answers out of me unless you tell me that's what you're looking for. 

    Speaking of charts, I have to keep hammering these into your heads until you believe it – this is why yesterday's move went into the "ignore" column – once again, no volume:


















  30. rustle

    My exact thought Schumer particularly dumb and what are the question? Seem most want to express their opinion.

  31. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen:

    In her initial remarks during semi-annual testimony to Congress, Yellen said there were signs of a production and spending rebound in the second quarter, but "this bears close watching."

    Damn it Janet! Never … I repeat … NEVER use the word “BEAR” in a BULL market!!! ;-)

  32. /CL 99.11  !!!

    98.50 here we go


  33. @Shadowfax

    This is the basic Senator question so they make themselves feel smart:

    So if I throw my son in a house fire, he would burn to death and it would probably be painful, would I be right?

  34. On the hour

    11:00 AM ET

    • Dow -0.04%.
    • 10-yr -0.16%.
    • Euro -0.36% vs. dollar.
    • Crude -1.55% to $99.35.
    • Gold -0.77% to $1,296.60.

  35. Lloyds reportedly near Libor deal with U.S. and U.K.

    11:02 AM ET · LYG

    • Settlement talks with the U.S.’s CFTC and the U.K.’s FCA have accelerated of late, reports the WSJ, and a deal with Lloyds (LYG -0.2%) could be announced in the next few weeks, though the size of the penalty isn’t clear.
    • The settlement, should it come, would mark the latest in which U.S. authorities impose a penalty on a European bank (at least this one will be joint), and continental bankers and politicians have begun to signal they’ve had about enough.

  36. Second site begins enrolling patients in BrainStorm ALS trial

    11:05 AM ET · BCLI

    • The University of Massachusetts Memorial Medical Center in Worcester is now enrolling patients in BrainStorm Cell Therapeutics’ (BCLI +0.8%) Phase 2 clinical trial evaluating the safety and efficacy of NurOwn in ALS patients. The medical center is the second of three sites participating in the 48-patient trial. Mass General started in June and the Mayo Clinic will come on line in Q3.
    • NurOwn is an autologous adult stem cell therapy that differentiates bone marrow-derived mesenchymal stem cells (MSC) into specialized neuron-supporting cells.
    • The study’s primary endpoint is the safety of intrathecal and intramuscular injections of NurOwn. Secondary endpoints are efficacy-related (change in slow vital capacity and change in ALS Functional Rating Scale).
    • Related ticker: (CUR -3.2%)

  37. CIT Group places $2.5B plane order with Boeing

    10:58 AM ET · CIT

    • CIT Group (CIT +1.1%) has placed a $2.5B order with Boeing (BA -0.8%) for 10 additional 787-9 Dreamliners. The new purchase brings the leasing company’s total 787 orders to 20, including 16 787-9s.
    • “These aircraft will add to our growing fleet of fuel efficient aircraft that remain in high demand from our airline customers, who also seek state-of-the-art aircraft that provide increased comfort and convenience for the traveling public,” says CIT President Jeff Knittel.

  38. Rough day for tobacco stocks after Lorillard premium vaporizes

    10:53 AM ET · LO

    • Tobacco stocks slump as a group after Lorillard doesn’t catch the premium in the Reynolds American buyout that some anticipated.
    • Even Imperial Tobacco which ended up with the hot Blu e-cigarette brand as part of the deal is having trouble shaking off the pessimism.
    • Decliners: Lorillard (NYSE:LO) -7.9%, Philip Morris (NYSE:PM) -1.3%, Altria (NYSE:MO) -2.1%, Vector Group (NYSE:VGR) -0.8%, Reynolds American (NYSE:RAI) -4.0%, Imperial Tobacco (OTCMKTS:ITYBY) -2.8%, British American Tobacco (NYSEMKT:BTI) -1.4%.

  39. Microsoft expands Cisco alliance, reportedly nears cybersecurity deal

    10:51 AM ET · CSCO

    • As part of their longstanding alliance, Cisco (CSCO – unchanged) and Microsoft (MSFT +0.1%) have signed a new 3-year “go-to-market plan” featuring tech integration and sales/marketing partnerships for a slew of data center products.
    • On Cisco’s side, the products covered include its Nexus data center switches and UCS servers – two bright spots for the company. On Microsoft’s site, they include Windows Server, SQL Server, System Center, and Azure.
    • The deal, which comes amid Microsoft’s partner conference (previous), also features a program to migrate Windows Server 2003 clients to UCS systems running Windows Server 2012 R2. Nonetheless, Microsoft and Cisco remain rivals in the unified communications software space.
    • Separately, the WSJ reports Microsoft is close to buying Aorato, an Israeli developer of cybersecurity/identity-protection software, for $200M.
    • Aorato’s products analyze interactions with Microsoft’s Active Directory (enterprise authentication/ID management) service to detect suspicious activity, and prevent unauthorized access to IT resources.
    • The report follows the launch of an Azure identity/access management service in March, and comes amid a flurry of cybersecurity M&A activity.

  40. Investors pull money from junk ETFs

    10:46 AM ET · HYG

    • A combined $620M was pulled from the two largest high-yield ETFs (HYG, JNK) last week, making them the least popular in the fixed-income ETF universe during that period, according to data put together by Bloomberg.
    • The move comes with yields on the BAML U.S. Index right around their record lows, and strategists suggest investors are cashing in some chips after a near straight-line rally over the past few months, if not years. While these ETFs are aimed at individual investors, they’re increasingly being used by institutions to adjust exposure in a relatively low liquidity sector.

  41. UPS to expand in Brazil

    10:39 AM ET · UPS

    • UPS (UPS +0.1%) says it will open nine new operating facilities in Brazil in a move which will broaden its network in the nation by 78%.
    • The company also plans to add 115 vehicles to its Brazil fleet to help it improve services.

  42. Yellen warns on small cap and momo sector valuations

    10:32 AM ET · IWM

    • Sticking to what we mostly already know about Fed thinking, Janet Yellen – in prepared remarks before the Senate Banking Committee – says interest rates could rise sooner and at a faster pace if labor market strength continues to surprise to the upside. The opposite, she quickly notes, is also true – should data disappoint, policy would be more accommodative than currently anticipated.
    • Treasurys are zigging and zagging on her remarks, but about flat, and the S&P 500 and Dow remain little-changed. Small caps (IWM -0.7%) and momentum sectors like social media (SOCL -1.1%) and biotech (IBB -1.1%) are selling off as the Fed boss says their valuations “appear to be stretched.”
    • The Q&A is underway; live blog and video here.

  43. Phil

    KORS any trade on the drop?

    Out of INTC 


  44. ~~rustle123

    I did read Flash Boys this weekend which fueled my fire on markets being rigged. I think like you everyone on this blog should read it. We seem to expect too much out of politicians.

  45. RBC suggests high-yielding MLPs that can outperform for rest of 2014

    10:31 AM ET · ARP

  46. U.K. inflation climbs in June

    10:31 AM ET · FXB

    • U.K. inflation climbed 1.9% on year in June from 1.5% in May.
    • Core inflation +2% on year vs +1.6%.
    • “The largest contributions to the rise in the rate came from the clothing, food & non-alcoholic drinks and air transport sectors,” the statistics office says. There were no large downward effects to offset the change.” (PR)
    • Factory output prices (PPI) fell -0.2% vs -0.1% (PR)
    • The pound is +0.5% at $1.7161, while the FTSE 100 is -0.3%.

  47. Pockets of strength in retail

    10:30 AM ET · DG

    • Dollar stores (DG, DLTR, FDO) and wholesale clubs (PSMT, COST, WMT) saw “stellar strength” over the last week, according to ICSC.
    • The research firm thinks chain store sales will be up 3% to 4% for the month.
    • Previous: ICSC Retail Sales

  48. Lexmark drops on Bernstein downgrade

    10:12 AM ET · LXK

    • Citing valuation and high channel inventories, Bernstein has downgraded Lexmark (LXK -5.5%) to Underperform. Its PT remains at $40.
    • The downgrade comes as Lexmark remains in the middle of a bidding war for Sweden’s ReadSoft.

  49. Fitch Ratings: Dynamics shifting in Macau

    10:04 AM ET · MPEL

    • Fitch Ratings cuts its forecast for 2014 Macau gaming revenue growth to 10% from 12%.
    • The ratings agency thinks the VIP segment could see a 5% dip for the year compared to the sizzling 25%-30% growth it see for the mass market segment.
    • The dynamics in Macau have shifted considerably as VIP spending is clipped by economic policy, while the mass market segment continues to bring in new Mainland visitors. The advent of UnionPay machines is also a positive for mass market.
    • Macau related stocks: MPEL, MGM, WYNN, LVS, GXYEF, SJMHF.

  50. Business inventories rise in May

    10:02 AM ET

    • May business inventories: +0.5% to 1,737.4B vs. +0.6% consensus and +0.6% prior.
    • Sales +0.4% to $1,343.3B.
    • Inventory/Sales ratio at 1.29.

  51. Embraer lands $1.9B order

    09:54 AM ET · ERJ

    • Embraer (ERJ -0.2%) has received a $1.9B order for 30 E-Jets from Azul, Brazil’s third largest airline. Azul has an option to also acquire another 20 jets, which would bring the contract value up to $3.1B.
    • Azul is looking to increase its fleet capacity, as it plans on flying to the U.S. and expects more government subsidies for regional flying.
    • The first delivery is expected in 2019.

  52. Twitter ticks higher on Macquarie upgrade

    09:53 AM ET · TWTR

    • “While we remain concerned about user growth trajectory and valuation, we see limited downside given investor focus on strong financial fundamentals and the potential turnaround in user growth,” writes Macquarie’s Ben Schachter, upgrading Twitter (TWTR +1.2%) to Neutral.
    • Schachter, who downgraded Twitter on Dec. 27 (shares entered the day at $73), says user growth worries keep him from assigning an Outperform rating. But he considers recent executive changes, including the hiring of Anthony Noto as CFO, to be positives.
    • Also: MKM has put out a bullish note, arguing Twitter could be worth $120B in 5 years, and that the company’s efforts to improve the user experience could fix its churn problems.
    • Macquarie is the seventh firm to upgrade Twitter since its May lockup expiration (prior upgrades). Q2 results are due on July 29.

  53. Alibaba streaming deal boosts Lions Gate

    09:44 AM ET · LGF

    • Shares of Lions Gate (LGF +3.7%) are off and running after the announcement of a streaming partnership with Alibaba creates some excitement over an even closer relationship between the companies.
    • The deal looks like sure winner for Lions Gate to many media analysts with very little investment involved.
    • Sources indicate there isn’t any plan for a capital investment by Alibaba in the studio which could dampen some of the wilder speculation.

  54. Shell confirms another major Gulf of Mexico discovery

    09:41 AM ET · RDS.A

    • Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B) announces a third major discovery in the Norphlet play in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico with its successful Rydberg exploration well.
    • Shell is completing the full evaluation of the well results but expects the resource base to contain ~100M boe; combined with the nearby Appomattox and Vicksburg discoveries, the new discovery brings total potential Norphlet discoveries to 700M-plus boe.
    • The discovery is the first for the partnership of operator Shell, with a 57.2% stake, Ecopetrol (NYSE:EC) and Nexen (NYSE:CEO).

  55. BAML survey: Fund managers most bullish since 2011

    09:28 AM ET · VV

    • Global asset allocators are a net 61% overweight equities, according to the latest read from BAML, the highest amount since early 2011 and the second-strongest response in the report’s history. Overlooked apparently, are valuations, with a net 21% of fund managers viewing stocks as overvalued, the highest read since 2000.
    • “Improving investor sentiment on global growth, inflation, equities and risk-taking are all testament to a potential macro normalization in the second half,” says BAML Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett. “This could eventually feed into a normalization of rates. If growth does pick up, volatility will rise too.”

  56. GoPro +5.8% on bullish JMP launch

    09:24 AM ET · GPRO

    • Viewing the company as a play on online media/advertising as well as fitness products and wearables, JMP (not an underwriter) has started coverage on GoPro (NASDAQ:GPRO) with an Outperform and $60 PT.
    • The firm thinks GoPro can achieve $2B in revenue and $1.70 in EPS in 2016, as its media business (centered around its channels on YouTube and other sites) provides a boost. If achieved, that forecast would mean GoPro is now valued at 19.5x 2016 EPS.
    • Shares fell yesterday following a bearish Barron’s column.

  57. Phil – VLO … I see a possible short not because of “squiggly lines,” but because we BOTH see how important the 200dma is. If it breaks the 200dma (on a close), then program selling will kick in regardless of the long term fundamentals of the company (and THAT is tradable). However, if the 200dma average holds and the price bounces, then we will know that at least a short term low has been put in (and THAT is ALSO tradable).

    I understand your thoughts long term on VLO and I have previously sold some leap puts, which I will add to when the chart turns positive …

    Nonetheless, I think the word “tradable” should have been a hint that it is a trade setup I am watching NOT a long term investment. Those “squiggly lines” on charts have made me a lot of money over the years. Just saying …

  58. GoPro +5.8% on bullish JMP launch

    09:24 AM ET · GPRO

    • Viewing the company as a play on online media/advertising as well as fitness products and wearables, JMP (not an underwriter) has started coverage on GoPro (NASDAQ:GPRO) with an Outperform and $60 PT.
    • The firm thinks GoPro can achieve $2B in revenue and $1.70 in EPS in 2016, as its media business (centered around its channels on YouTube and other sites) provides a boost. If achieved, that forecast would mean GoPro is now valued at 19.5x 2016 EPS.
    • Shares fell yesterday following a bearish Barron’s column.

  59. Michael Kors lower after Sterne warns on margin pressure

    09:20 AM ET · KORS

    • Shares of Michael Kors (KORS -3.5%) are lower in early action after Sterne Agee chips away at the bull case on the red-hot retailer.
    • Analyst Ike Boruchow thinks margins are close to maxing out at Michael Kors due to a reduced impact of the low return rates from the wholesale channel and notes promotional activity has picked up.
    • Sterne peels back its FY15 EPS estimate on MK to $3.95 from $4.00.
    • KORS -3.1% premarket

  60. Delivery service still a focus at Burger King

    09:12 AM ET · BKW

    • Burger King (NYSE:BKW) is out with a series of announcements on cities which will be included in its BK Delivers program.
    • The home delivery service is already available in New York, Boston, Miami, and Chicago.
    • Though the program hasn’t given a giant lift to the company’s comp sales, Burger King thinks further online and mobile refinements will help on the efficiency end.

  61. Redbook chain store sales

    09:03 AM ET

    • Redbook Chain Store Sales: +4.1% Y/Y vs. +6% last week.
    • The strong sales growth is down from the prior week but is up from earlier weeks.

  62. Debt buybacks rolling along at Darden Restaurants

    09:01 AM ET · DRI

    • Darden Restaurants (NYSE:DRI) increases the size of its debt buyback to $610M after seeing plenty of bidders show up.
    • The company still plans to use some of the proceeds from the sale of Red Lobster to retire more debt.

  63. Wolverine Worldwide to close 140 stores

    08:47 AM ET · WWW

    • Shares of Wolverine Worldwide (NYSE:WWW) are higher in premarket trading after the company reports Q2 results.
    • A plan by Wolverine to close 140 stores has caught the attention of investors.
    • Most of the shuttered shops will be of the Stride Rite variety.
    • WWW +3.0% premarket.

  64. JPMorgan +2.5% as earnings call gets underway

    08:46 AM ET · JPM

    • The trading environment for H2 will probably look a lot like H1, says JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) CFO Marianne Lake, perhaps sandbagging to set up the bank to blow past estimates again in Q3.
    • The conference call is now underway and can be heard here.
    • Q2 earnings presentation is here.
    • Dimon: I feel great. I’m getting the best treatment from the best doctors in the world. The prognosis remains excellent. His preference is stay on as CEO for 3-7 more years, but the board is preparing for succession. He touts JPMorgan’s deep bench and says any of the current team could run a major financial company.
    • More from Lake: Speaking on the earnings call, she says the momentum in business banking – originations rose 46% Y/Y and 27% Q/Q in Q2 – has continued into Q3.
    • Previously: JPMorgan +1.8% after blowing past estimates
    • JPM +2.5% premarket

  65. More on June Retail Sales

    08:41 AM ET · PIR

    • A decline in sales at furniture stores and home furnishing outlets (PIR, BBBY, LZB, ETH, RH, HVT, KIRK, WSM) dragged down retail sales during the month of June.
    • The building material and garden equipment category (HD, LOW) was also weak.
    • Perhaps a surprise, but sales at clothing stores outpaced other businesses during the month.

  66. F-35 cleared for take-off

    08:10 AM ET · LMT

    • The no-fly ban on the Lockheed Martin’s (NYSE:LMT) F-35 has been lifted, clearing the fighter jet for flight. The warplane was previously grounded after an engine caught fire in Florida last month.
    • Pratt & Whitney (NYSE:UTX), the manufacturer of the engine, is breathing a sigh of relief as it now seems the engine malfunction is not a systematic defect.
    • The news also boosts the chances of the F-35 making an appearance at the Farnborough Airshow this week. The expo is prime time for international exposure and missing the show could put a dent into sales.

  67. Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory misses by $0.10, misses on revenue

    08:05 AM ET · RMCF

    • Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory (NASDAQ:RMCF): FQ1 EPS of $0.14 misses by $0.10.
    • Revenue of $10.3M (+1.2% Y/Y) misses by $1.05M.
    • Press Release

  68. More on J & J Q2 earnings. EPS guidance raised.

    08:04 AM ET · JNJ

    • Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) Q2 results: Revenues: Consumer: $3,744M (+2.4%), Pharmaceutical: $8,509M (+21.1%), Med Devices & Diagnostics: $7,242M (+0.7%); Global Business: $19,495M (+9.1%).
    • COGS: $6,039M (+10.0%); R&D Expense: $2,005M (+3.0%); SG&A Expense: $5,481M (+2.0%); Net Income: $4,326M (+12.9%); EPS: $1.51 (+13.5%).
    • Gross Profit: $13,456M (+8.6%); COGS%: 31.0% (+0.9%); Gross Margin%: 69.0% (-0.4%); Operating Profit: $5,970 (+17.8%); Operating Earnings Yield: 30.6% (+8.1%); Net Earnings Yield: 22.2% (+3.5%).
    • EPS guidance raised to $5.85 – 5.92 from $5.80 – 5.90.
    • Press release

  69. More on Commerce Banshares Q2 results

    07:55 AM ET · CBSH

    • Net income of $66.5M or $0.70 per share vs. $65.8M or $0.69 a year ago.
    • ROA of 1.18%; ROE of 11.7%, efficiency ratio of 60.3%.
    • Loans outstanding up $1.1B of 10.9% Y/Y.
    • Net interest income of $167.9M up $1.9M from a year ago, with NIM of 3.13% down eight basis points.
    • Noninterest income of $108.8M up 5.9% Y/Y thanks to higher bank card and trust fees.
    • Noninterest expense of $162.9M up 3.8% thanks to higher salaries, and also includes $1.3M in expense related to Summit Bancshares which weren’t there a year ago.
    • Previously: Commerce Bancshares beats by $0.02
    • CBSH no trades premarket

  70. 21st Century Fox eyes theme park in South Korea

    07:55 AM ET · FOXA

    • 21st Century Fox (NASDAQ:FOXA) is close to announcing plans for a theme park in South Korea, according to Variety.
    • A Fox World theme park in the region would be the second park to be launched from the company’s 20th Century Fox Consumer Products division.

  71. NBA aims to double value of TV rights contract

    07:44 AM ET · DIS

    • The NBA wants to double the amount of money it earns for the TV rights to its games when its contract with networks comes due at the end of this season.
    • ABC/ESPN (NYSE:DIS) and Turner Broadcasting (NYSE:TWX) pay $485M and $445M a year respectively under the current contract.
    • New bidders could emerge if a deal isn’t worked out with the NBA by a preset date.

  72. BMW is in a sharing mood

    07:27 AM ET · BAMXY

    • BMW (OTCMKTS:BAMXY) says it will consider sharing battery technology with other companies if it would help drive down the cost of batteries for electric vehicles.
    • “If Mercedes called us, we would be happy to find a way with Samsung SDI to supply them with battery cells,” says BMW exec Klaus Draeger.
    • Tesla Motors has already gone public with its support of open source technology within the EV industry.

  73. Data analysis finds cognitive deficits precede functional deficits in Alzheimer’s

    07:23 AM ET · LLY

    • A dataset analysis by researchers at Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) evaluating the relationship between cognitive and functional impairment in patients with mild Alzheimer’s disease finds that cognitive declines predict subsequent functional deficits. The finding is consistent with current scientific theory.
    • The challenge for drug developers is that for potential treatments that target the underlying neuropathology of the disease, effects on function may take longer to observe in clinical trials. Currently available scales were not developed to assess subtle functional changes or treatment effects on these deficits in patients with mild Alzheimer’s. There is also debate over the degree of variability in the scales globally. Lilly researchers support debate on alternative ways to measure these parameters.
    • In their analysis of placebo data from two clinical trials, researchers found that cognitive impairment significantly predicted functional impairment in five out of six time points. When they tested the opposite hypothesis, functional scores predicted cognitive outcomes in only one out of six time points.

  74. Novartis to test Alzheimer’s drug candidates in asymptomatic patients

    07:41 AM ET · NVS

    • Novartis (NYSE:NVS) plans to test two experimental Alzheimer’s drugs on patients with a genetic risk of developing dementia caused by the buildup of amyloid protein. The intend is to determine if the treatments can prevent or delay symptoms of the disease. Currently approved medications treat the symptoms not the progression of the disease.
    • One of the drug candidates is an injectable immunotherapy currently in Phase 2 clinicals. It works by stimulating the immune system to produce natural antibodies that attack amyloid.
    • The second drug is an oral pill called a BACE inhibitor that is about to enter Phase 1 trials. It works by blocking an enzyme called beta secretase that is involved in the production of beta-amyloid.
    • Novartis’ trial will involve more than 1,300 patients aged between 60 and 75 that have two genetic copies of apolipoprotein E epsilon 4 (APOE4) allele, a gene that contains instructions for making a protein that transports cholesterol. People with two copies of the gene have a 10x greater risk of developing Alzheimer’s.

  75. Inside the Reynolds American-Lorillard deal

    07:22 AM ET · RAI

    • Reynolds American (NYSE:RAI) says it will unload the Kool, Salem, Winston, Maverick, and blu eCigs brands along with some other assets to Imperial Tobacco (OTCMKTS:ITYBY) for $7.1B. The move is aimed at appeasing regulators.
    • The company says the acquisition of Lorillard (NYSE:LO) will be accretive within the first full year and will show a double-digit accretion rate in the second year and beyond.
    • A cooperation deal was struck between Reynolds and British American Tobacco (NYSEMKT:BTI) which includes sharing technology and development costs on next-gen tobacco products.
    • Premarket: Lorillard -3.7%, Reynolds American -0.2%, British American Tobacco (BTI) -0.5%.

  76. GE predicts $30B order target fulfilled by end of the day

    05:39 AM ET · GE

    • CEO of GE (NYSE:GE) Aviation David Joyce expects the firm to attain its target of $30B of orders at the Farnborough Airshow by the end of the day.
    • Engine maker GE has seen a record amount of purchases between its operations GE Aviation and CFM International, a joint venture between itself and Safran (OTCMKTS:SAFRF).
    • The company is also looking to finalize an engine deal with Qatar Airways over Boeing 777X planes.

  77. Israel approves of ceasefire; Hamas continues rocket barrage

    05:30 AM ET · EIS

    • Israel’s security cabinet has approved a truce proposed by Egypt which calls for a de-escalation after 6:00 GMT today and a full truce within 12 hours thereafter.
    • Hamas responded that they had not been consulted by Egypt and vowed its attacks would “increase in ferocity and intensity”.
    • Delegations from Israel and Palestinian factions are to hold talks in Cairo within 48 hours.
    • ETFs: EIS, ISRA

  78. VW invests $900M at U.S. plant

    04:06 AM ET · VLKAY

    • Volkswagen (OTCMKTS:VLKAY) is investing $900M in its manufacturing plant in Tennessee to start production for a mid-sized SUV.
    • U.S. VW sales have dropped 7% in 2013 and fell another 13% in the first half of 2014 despite growing overall market sales.The company is now trying to retrieve its U.S. market share.
    • “I admit that we may have dedicated too much time to China, Brazil and other states because the U.S. appeared to be working extremely well,” says CEO Martin Winterkorn. “That’s why we want to adjust things now.”

  79. Draghi warns of strong euro

    03:50 AM ET · FXE

    • Mario Draghi is warning that that euro zone recovery is at risk with a strong euro and highlighted that large-scale purchases of public and private debt do fall within the ECB’s mandate to keep inflation low and stable.
    • EU growth has been facing a difficult time with the appreciated exchange rate threatening price stability. The euro came close to the $1.40 level in recent months from 1.20 against the dollar in mid-2012.
    • Draghi has also urged EU member states to implement tougher structural reforms to boost economic development.

  80. Barclays dark pool trading drops 37%

    02:49 AM ET · BCS

    • Trading in Barclays’ (NYSE:BCS) U.S. dark pool has fallen 37%. The drop follows the New York Attorney General’s lawsuit last month which accused the bank of deceiving clients about how the pool operated.
    • During the final week of June, 197M shares traded on the dark pool, down from 312M the previous week.
    • Although the bank is still investigating the allegations, most major brokers including Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, ITG and RBC have shut down their connections to the pool.

  81. Bloomberg: Microsoft to slash jobs as early as this week

    02:11 AM ET · MSFT

    • Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) is preparing for its next round of lay offs as it looks to scale back and streamline its Nokia Oyj’s handset unit, Bloomberg reports.
    • The restructuring may end up being the largest in Microsoft history, exceeding the 5,800 jobs cuts in 2009.
    • The company added around 30k jobs after it acquired Nokia’s mobile device business, and it will announce the reductions centered around its Nokia unit and marketing and engineering divisions that overlap with the business.

  82. Of Citigroup’s $7B settlement, CFO says ~$3B will be deductible

    Yesterday, 07:21 PM ET · C

    • Citigroup (NYSE:C) will get a tax break on at least part of its $7B settlement with the U.S. government over its mortgage securities; CFO John Gerspach said during today’s earnings call that the $500M in payments to state attorneys general and the FDIC would be deductible, along with any costs the bank actually incurs in relation to consumer relief, which could be less than the $2.5B called for in the settlement.
    • Tax deductibility of banks’ big settlements with the government has been controversial: Last fall, JPMorgan Chase reached a $13B settlement with the government over mortgage issues but with $7B of that amount deductible.

  83. Nvidia reportedly prepping new gaming device

    Yesterday, 07:10 PM ET · NVDA

    • BBC reports Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is working on a new gaming system that runs on its high-end Tegra K1 processor. Nvidia, for its part, only says it has an “awesome new gaming product that is launching soon.”
    • Like the Shield handheld console (launched last year, has seen limited sales), the rumored device runs Android games, and allows PCs sporting high-end Nvidia GPUs to stream games for playback on TV sets.
    • Engadget previously reported the Shield’s successor will be a tablet. As with the Shield, Nvidia is likely looking to provide a proof-of-concept to drive interest in hardware requiring powerful mobile processors or PC GPUs.
    • Previous: Nvidia details next-gen GPU platform, announces $3K card

  84. Plug Power jumps following after-hours analyst initiation

    Yesterday, 07:02 PM ET · PLUG

    • Plug Power (NASDAQ:PLUG) +9.6% AH after FBR Capital initiates coverage on the fuel cell company with an Outperform rating and $8 price target, citing multiple catalysts on the horizon including new order wins in the U.S., potential expansion in Europe, and the rollout of a hydrogen delivery solution.
    • FBR suggests investors to look beyond PLUG’s history and focus on management’s steps to transform the company into a fully integrated business model; the firm believes recent order wins at large customers will have a follow-on effect, and expects the company’s diverse customer base to continue to transition to hydrogen-based forklift fleet solutions.

  85. Three tech reads

    Yesterday, 06:45 PM ET

  86. Ocean Power nixes plans to build Australia wave power project

    Yesterday, 06:07 PM ET · OPTT

    • Ocean Power Technologies (NASDAQ:OPTT) -8.5% AH after cancelling plans to build a wave energy project off the coast of Australia, saying it says is no longer commercially viable.
    • OPTT’s Victorian Wave Partners subsidiary told the Australian Renewable Energy Agency that it would terminate its demonstration project funding deed.
    • OPTT says it will repay what it has received of a A$66.5M government grant, which was intended to be used toward the A$232M proposed cost of building the project.

  87. Score a win for unions, as Staples abandons postal service trial

    Yesterday, 05:42 PM ET · SPLS

    • Staples (NASDAQ:SPLS) says it will give up its pilot program to offer postal services at its stores, shifting instead to the established Post Office Approved Shipper program already available in thousands of retail outlets across the U.S.
    • The American Postal Workers Union had said the Staples program would undermine the role of post offices and shift postal worker jobs to lower paid and less experienced SPLS retail staff; on Saturday, the 1.6M-member American Federation of Teachers said it would join a boycott.
    • Despite the apparent victory, APWU says the discontinuation of the pilot program doesn’t go far enough, and SPLS should stop offering postal services altogether.

  88. Valero expects below consensus Q2 earnings, shares -2.2% AH

    Yesterday, 05:22 PM ET · VLO

    • Valero Energy (NYSE:VLO) -2.2% AH after saying it expects to report below consensus Q2 EPS from continuing operations of $1.10-$1.25; analysts had forecast a consensus $1.37.
    • VLO sees refining operating income higher Y/Y due to higher throughput volumes as well as wider discounts on sour crude oil and certain types of North American light crude oil, offseting weaker Y/Y gasoline and distillate margins in most regions.
    • VLO also expects to report a $0.12/share loss from discontinued operations, related primarily to a non-cash charge associated with recognizing an asset retirement obligation for the Aruba refinery.

  89. DOJ investigating possible collusion against Pandora

    Yesterday, 04:59 PM ET · P

    • The DOJ has sent out document requests to music publishers Sony/ATV and Universal, as well as trade groups ASCAP and BMI, regarding the consent decrees through which they provide performance rights to Pandora (NYSE:P) and others.
    • The agency is investigating allegations of “coordination” between the publishers and trade groups to secure higher royalties. The probe comes after Pandora alleged during a 2013 rate-setting trial (previous) the parties colluded to change ASCAP/BMI by-laws that would allow for partial rights withdrawals, a move that paves the way for higher royalties.
    • During the trial, Judge Denise Cote found proof of “troubling coordination” between ASCAP, Sony, and Universal, but had no jurisdiction on the matter to make a ruling.
    • Content acquisition costs accounted for 56% of Pandora’s Q1 revenue, with recording royalties (different from performance royalties) making up the biggest portion of the total. Q2 results are due on July 24.

  90. GTAT – makes a nice, simple covered call play today for IRAs, kids accounts that can't get too fancy: buy stock, sell Jan15 $20 calls @ 1.55 for net 13.68.  If called, you get a 46% return in 6 months. If not called, you have nice stock at an initial 10% discount. Add puts to sweeten as desired.

  91. GTAT / Scott – Pretty volatile for that type of play… Up to $10, down to $3, up to $20, down to $15 in the space of about 18 months. Good for trading I guess.

  92. Pharm// Any thoughts on ARIA and SGEN?

  93. scott – GTAT 
    how do you get the 46% ? 

  94. Senators/Rustle – And these guys ARE the smart ones.  The people in the House are simply an embarrassment. 

    Janet/Diamond – She also needs to do something about the fact that she looks like a frightened Hobbit up there.  Maybe get a box to sit on or something.  Still, compared to Bernanke, she sounds nice and confident.  

    $99.01 on oil.

    KORS/QC – I think the pricing got ahead of reality so I don't consider a pullback to $80 to be an "opportunity" – more like a move towards sanity.  $75 should be a long-term fair price for them.  Earnings are Aug 5th(ish), we'll see what they say. 

    Flash boys/Shadow – Who knew that could be a whole book?  I've been ranting about that crap for years.  

    VLO/Diamond – Nothing wrong with the technical play.  I'm merely trying to point out that FUNDAMENTALLY, the 200 dma is oversold for VLO, most likely triggered by yesterday's guidance adjustment, but that's still $1.15 per $50 share for the Q, even after taking a .12 one-time charge and it's more a case of analysts not knowing how to value the continuing operation properly than anything VLO did wrong.  I apologize if the way I tried to warn you off what I thought was an ill-advised short came across as some sort of indictment of your system – it's just that I thought you might lose money and wanted to get that warning across to you as quickly as possible. 

    GTAT/Scott – I like that. They make a nice add to the LTP but no need to own them, since they don't pay a dividend.  I'd rather sell 10  2016 $15 puts for $4.80 ($4,800) and use that to buy 20 of the 2016 $12/20 bull call spreads at $2.70 ($5,400) for net $600 on $16,000 worth of spreads that are $6,000 in the money to start.  Worst case is owning 1,000 shares of GTAT at net $15.60.

  95. Phil / TXN
    Double winner on the flies.

  96. Not a surprise, Elizabeth Warren is the only one who gets it and has Yellen stumbling over her incompetency.

  97. Not a lot of cheap places but better dividend rates outside the US:

  98. Phil / videos: i got around to watching the videos from yesterday "Who is Dependent on Welfare"  and the one from john oliver. This is why i stay with you, thank you (plus i hope to make money some day ;) ). we should really put these and a lot of the informative graphics you sprinkle around in one place and add to over time.

  99. Phil – You did not offend me! I think a spirited discussion about trading is VERY important and healthy for everyone on this site. You were just doing your job, and I was just defending my thesis. :-)

    EVERYONE PLEASE NOTE: Technicals and fundamentals are BOTH very important considerations when considering what to do in the market. If you ignore one and only focus the other, it may be at your own detriment if you do not also hedge, scale proper position sizing and/or have stops that you do honor … ALWAYS, but especially in this market!

  100. Phil Flash boys

    At first a few tried to say it was BS. They stopped and HFT was mentioned this morning. I have also been yelling about it since before I came here. I built a computer to watch and it is right there for anyone to see.

  101. TXN/Wombat – Nice to have one or two that actually hit the target each month.  

    Warren/Rustle – I love how she can state her case with simple clarity.  Makes you realize the extent of obfuscation practiced by the others, whether through ignorance or intent.  

    1,145 on /TF after trying 1,155.  /YM only down 55 (16,945) but /NQ hit 3,880, quick 20-point dip ($400) and /ES hit 1,960 for 15 ($750 per contract).  

    Still, nowhere near drawing new lines so we break out the old ones:

    • Dow 17,050 to 16,800 is 250 in 3 days so you need to make a strong bounce in 1.5 days in order to have a chance at a V recovery.  Bounces would be 50 points so 16,850 and 16,900 are what we'll watch.  
    • S&P 1,985 to 1,955 is 30 points so 6-point bounces to 1,961 and 1,967 will be our targets. 
    • Nasdaq 4,485 to 4,360 (now I'm rounding) is 125 so 25-point bounces to 4,385 and 4,410.
    • NYSE 11,100 to 10,900 is 200 points so 40-point bounces to 10,940 and 10,980.
    • Russell 1,208 to 1,140 is 68 points and we'll call that 14-point bounces for 1,155 (rounding) and 1,170

    So only the Dow is green and that's the least meaningful of all the indexes.  The broader NYSE and RUT are failing weak bounces so it's up to S&P 1,167 to show us the way.  Keep in mind /ES is 1,160, so the drag on the index should still be down a bit.  

    Sprinkles/Micro – Wiley Publishing wants to make a book out of my posts/commentary so, if you want to edit a bunch of stuff together, we might be able to make a few bucks.  I simply don't have the time.  

    Offense/Diamond – That's good, I thought you took it that way.  FU then!  cheeky

  102. Phil / Vegas baby!  Have you spoken to Savi about possible dates for the Vegas conference this fall?  

  103. PHIL/GTAT

    What to you think about adding Short Aug. 16 calls to the listed trade?

  104. Phil / GTAT
    Actually a general question. I notice that when we construct artificial buy/writes, the short are generally 2016. Why do you go all the way out ins tread of taking half the premium and keeping them 2015 in case you want to roll out or down ?

  105. ( short puts )

  106. Phil,

    As per your chart above of the SPY, you commented about the SPY having super low volume.  What is the average daily volume for the SPY?

  107. AAPL intraday candles like the 8-day ema.

  108. Decent volume for the SPY is around 90M.

  109. Politicians have to sound stupid so the common man can relate, of course some are totally off.

    Really only Warren has a brain? So sad.

  110. Vegas/Terra – No, I haven't gotten that far ahead yet.  Generally it's Veteran's Day weekend, which is the 7th (Friday) through 10th (Monday) this year.  We're talking to the Najerians about doing something together but, assuming they can't swing it or if their schedule does match ours – that will be the weekend.  

    GTAT/Zten – That runs you into earnings and I'm not saying I expect them to pop $1 but I'd rather just see what happens before getting into anything.  Who knows what will or won't be said re. IPhones, IWatches between now and then? 

    2016/Wombat – Because, generally, I prefer to set and forget trades and, as noted above on monthly trades, if you sold the GTAT Jan $25 puts for $2.80 you could argue you are going to make $2.50 more by selling 6 months 3 times vs collecting $4.90 for the short 2016 $15s but if GTAT drops $3 on earnings, then you only collected $2.80 and the short puts would be down about $2.50 with GTAT at $12 while the 2016s would still be net $10.10 with GTAT at $12 and wouldn't need adjusting.  Also, on the way up $3, the 2015 $15 puts would be about $1.35 (up $1.45) but then, when you go to resell, now you have to sell July $18 puts with the stock at $18 to get your next $2.80 while our 2016 $15 puts are 20% out of the money and will make their next $2.80 by just sitting there.  

    When you can make this much money by playing conservative – why take risks?  

    Dividend/StJ – I didn't realize how far off we were.  

    SPY/Ging – Volume should be about 120M on SPY – and that's in the last couple of low-volume years, in 2007 it averaged double that.  This summer, we've been lucky to hit the mid 90s.   Even last June, we averaged 184M/day but last summer we dropped to the 110s and we never really recovered since.  

    AAPL/Diamond – Very zig-zaggy:

    Keep in mind that $97.50 is $682.50 and $100 is $700 and $95 is $665, pre split we were at $525 so 10% is $577.50 ($82.50) and we popped right thorough that and the next 10% is $90, and we blew through that with minor resistance at $93.75 (25%) on towards 30% at $97.50.  Technically, we did get our retrace back to $90 (20% line) from the overshoot to 25% but very brief consolidation before making another leg.  I think another trip to $90 is in the cards before we have a proper move towards $100. 

    SPY/JPH – That's our premise holding up, volume on selling days, none on buying days.  

  111. The analyst from JMP Securities sounds like the other idiot analysts on Twitter when it was 70 and made their non rational case that it could go to 150.  $60 PT is insane on that stock.

  112. Dividend / Phil – I guess it makes places like Brazil cheap. The various China exchanges are also cheaper, but I don't trust any number coming from there so not appealing that much. And EWZ has really bounced off these lows of earlier this year. Close or at a 52-week high and still apparently moderately priced given some support from the dividend rate.

  113. Phil / GTAT
    More time = less vol. Got it.

  114. Phil – Where is the 8-day ema on your AAPL chart? I do  NOT see it! ;-)

  115. Crumbs Bakery from .02 to .72 and back to .20.  Penny stocks are like a Roulette table.

  116. GTAT/wombat – 46% is your gain with net cost $13.68 (bot stock, sold 2015 $20 calls) if/when stock is called away at $20.  In addition to some of these covered calls, I also did a set of my favored diagonals.. bot Jan2016 $15 calls and sold Jan2015 $20 calls. As Stj pointed out, can be volatile stock, up/down $10, etc so think very possible to see +20 by January. comfortable with price at this level for these entries. Stop on the diagonals is a roomy close under $13.

  117. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen: Small caps and biotech’s are overvalued …

    Wow! Yellen is now giving stock trading tips from the Senate!!!  WTF???

  118. Wombat

    2017 leaps will start coming out for some stocks on Sept 15th, others on Oct15 and Nov 15

  119. CCJ – Jan15 $17 puts can be sold for .70, yielding 28% return on $242 margin

  120. SGEN/ARIA/PLX etc….see Yellen, Janet.

  121. Not doing anything right now.  Good risk reward in SPY 198 July4s (Weekly) for 72c.  I still think they want 2000 on SPX….

    As for biotechs, they are overvalued.  Not new.  But we are also buying risk, and those give good risk reward if you sort through the science.  GALT now has competition, LJPC.

  122. Pharmboy – 2000 on SPX too obvious, so I think they will make people wait (and burn premium) …

  123. Comparing the market caps of GALT and LJPC….buy LJPC.  Same target….same…..

  124. UNP/pwright – didn't get fills on the last diagonals I bid for at my 'buy zone.'  Just letting the verticals sit and decay up. all very nice. stop still at a close under 98.69. Will look to move stop up on a close over 102.

  125. Look for TSLA to retest the 200dma (if it breaks the 50dma).

  126. fed closely monitoring developments in leveraged loan market…hahahahah…closely watching the largest high yield debt bubble the world has ever seen for signs it may be bursting and all fomc members leave for north korea…. there is a supplemental document release from fed saying equity vaulations of smaller firms…social media…biotech…stretched…more hahahaha
    market isn't liking all the concern about bubbles in this testimony

    uh oh…elizabeth warren grilling yellen on size of banks…"could we honestly wind down JPM without a bailout?" yes…and we could all live like the flintstones with the result


  127. i love EW btw

  128. ARO/Phil – can you expand a little more on why you think they are worth anything at all and not just a bankrupt brand ready for the back closet of history?

  129. God Tweeted… Peekaboo…

  130. angelcur – Janet Yellen is my counterparty! :-)

  131. This illustrates just how well the Fed knows in advance what is coming.  Shadow, you'll love this.  Despite a Q1/Q4 GDP change of -5.5% and a solid negative GDP of -2.9, the probability of a recession is 0.92%.  Unless one occurs, at which point the probability will be 100%.  Our tax dollars at work…

  132. Phil/EDZ

    Any trade idea on EDZ?

    Thanks as always


  134. thanks guys

  135. Pharm – great tweet picture!  It will find a way into our newsletter!

  136. Nice Rev……just following thou Holy One's tweets!

  137. GDX – nice miner smack-down. back to buy zone?

  138. Pharm -Is that  Inter-stellar social media?

  139. sibe

    I must be wrong, the experts say less than 1% and I think 100%. Everyone needs to invest in the future, go long TSLA Jan 2016 $1,000.

  140. LOL…..IDK..  No, I do know….it's God @TheTweetOfGod…

  141. Retail investors piling in:


    What I find strange is that institutional investors have basically been getting out of the market since the recession and particularly the last 2 years. I think that a lot of people have been surprised by how resilient the market is to bad news! 

  142. StJ – so are the institutions sitting on cash, or are they buying the market, and then selling it by the EOD?  I don't get how they can be -50% the net buys….

  143. If that chart is right were should crash any day, why not tomorrow? Lovin that leverage at work. Margin debt peaked, liar car loans, lots of part time minimum wage jobs. Warren can't be right, Musk for president if he has the required birth certificate.

  144. My 2000 SPX premise…from SHJ.

  145. President Musk/shadow – LOL! he can just get one in Hawaii… ;-)

  146. Looks same as yesterday to me – likely we get some selling into the close. 

    EWZ/StJ – I loved them in Feb, below $40, tricky at $50 but looking good for a nice run.  No reason not to sell the 2016 $45 puts for $4.70 and that's a nice entry (net $40.30, 20% off) by itself or can be paired with $45/55 bull call spread at $4.60 for net .10 credit ($45.10 worst-case entry on 1x) and $10 upside potential (10,100% profit at $55). 

    8 dma/Diamond – It's right where it should be, invisible!  

    CRMB/Rustle – Not enough time in my day to even bother looking at that nonsense. 

    Yellen/Diamond – Well someone has to say it…

    1,150 failed on RUT – not good.  

    CCJ/Scott – I do like them down here. 

    Fed/Angel – At least they are paying some attention.  More scary to me when they pretend it isn't happening at all.  

    EW/Angel – Or EWZ?

    ARO/Scott- Because it's hard to build a known name brand and that alone has some value.  Then there's their manufacturing and distribution network and the sales space they've been able to muscle into on retail shelves (and on-line) that drives $2Bn in sales.  They are losing about 5% while GPS makes about 10% so somewhere between one and the other it is reasonable to assume a buyer can achieve.  Now, if the buyer were GPS or an off-brand outlet that wanted to cut out the middle men and put out their own jeans or SHLD that wanted to make them a store brand or whatever – it becomes kind of attractive at $250M with no debt (and $100M in cash). 

    If I'm GPS with $15Bn in sales dropping 10% to the bottom line and getting a p/e of 15 ($17.5Bn) with about $200M a year of FCF (after buybacks and dividends) and I buy ARO for $400M (+40%) it's going to cost me about $50M a year for 10 years but, assuming I can turn them around (and synergies abound) and drop even 5% to the bottom line – I MAKE + $50M per year and get an immediate $750M pop to my stock value which goes up anther $750M a year once I pay off the purchase – and that's without increasing sales or any drastic cost cutting.  

    That's the point at which I begin to get interested in a business, when I can begin to structure buyout deals with logical partners that are big wins for them with little risk.  

    Cool picture Pharm.  

    LOL Sibe.

    EDZ/Pat – See above.  

    GDX/Scott – $24 is where both DMAs are – I'd wait. 

    TSLA/Shadow – Wrong way, now failing $220!  

    Retailers/StJ – I think it indicates that these retailers are very long-term holders.  Volatility and volume both down, you would think low volume would make things more volatile. 

    Institutions/Pharm – And you sure wouldn't know it from GS's report, trading was their biggest gainer.  Maybe you just don't need to trade as much when you have guaranteed returns.  

    SPX/Pharm – Well, 1,600 + 20% is 1,920 – that's the key line we can agree on.  I'd say we had pretty good consolidation at 1,760 so the run from there to 2,080 is the next 20% move we should watch and that's got 1,920 smack in the middle and a weak retrace off 2,080 is 20% of the 320 run (64) back to 2,016 and strong retrace is 128 back to 1,962, so that's the magic number we should keep an eye on and you can see how it's been holding pretty well after being resistance in late June.  If that fails now, that's going to be the sign that we'll likely head back to re-test 1,920.  

    Altucher/Scott – I like his stuff. 

  147. stick save on /TF >>> 1155 ??

  148. Can any of you tell me your real world experience for what percentage of your gains are taxed as long term capital gains, when investing in Buy/writes and artificial buy/writes?  I understand the tax rules, including that any gains from selling options is taxed as ordinary income, and buying long term leaps and stock that you are long for more than a year the gains will be taxed as long term capital gains.  Most of the gains that we make are from selling premium, so I don't expect much to be taxed as long term.  I'm just curious what kind of breakdown I can expect.  25% long term, 75% short term?  10% long term, 90% short term?  Etc.  Any insight here would be greatly appreciated. 

  149. Phil TSLA Buy the dip! Musk sounds foreign maybe not quite presidential but definitely Federal reserve or treasury.

  150. IMO tomorrow will be a down morning, must likely QQQ but maybe S&P

  151. Stick/Wombat – I don't see it, I think the pressure is still down. 

    Taxes/Palotay – First of all, it matters whether you elect trader status or not.  Also, you may want to consider forming a trust or LLC to trade through – various advantages to those things.  There's a couple of articles about electing trader status in the Education Archives, the key to keeping short-term tax costs under control is being able to deduct the losses!  

    Well, pretty flat overall but RUT down 1%.  More Yellen tomorrow, of course.  

    INTC coming after the bell.  Also YHOO and CSX for all you UNP fans.  BAC tomorrow.  

  152. Shadowfax TSLA I would call a dip 200


  154. yodi dip

    That would be the last chance to win! Check my posts TSLA $1,000 by Jan 16. last chance to ride to Mars!

  155. Shadowfax

    TSLA lot of BS but there are still gamblers and suckers we just have to ride the wave

  156. Thanks Phil/Dclark,  I will look into this further. 

  157. Looks like INTC beat and shares are up. YHOO missed and shares are up as well so I am looking for a correlation between prices and earnings beat.

  158. Does Alan Mulally joining Google board increase odds of big R&D spend on automotive and affect earnings?

  159. Surprised to see INTC with a beat.  Stock up nicely in after hours trading.

  160. looks like YHOO cut a deal where they can sell less Alibaba shares pre-IPO, maybe that's why it's up?

    CSX looks pretty good first glance, although sort of flat after hours.

  161. CSX – I guess the CC will be telling. I want to know where they see growth.

  162. Hi skier. Long time no see.

  163. …AAPL TOO up almost 2% AH.

  164. Hi Dan, Yes, I am just a silent lurker.

  165. Don't be so silent!  :) !  What am I saying!  I ave been pretty much a "premium" lurker because of job.  Although, I am having a great year both here and at my day job!  Any good trades lately? Still like AAPL?

  166. Still loving Apple, good trades following Phil, i.e. IBM etc.

  167. Since I found my voice, a rant, does anybody think there is a correlation between George Bush cutting off family planning funding on his first day in office (a Saturday if I remember) including and especially central America and some of the current child immigration issues?  just saying, about 14 years ago??  Unintended consequences?  I bet some data miners could find one!

  168. dclark

    Nice to hear your doing well at the office. As you know I require lots of visits and I end up feeling sorry for the doctors without patients, last week was the same, almost, 3 patients vs 1 last time. Office 7 doctors plus PAs.

  169. skier

    I'm liking IBM more and more, but not too much (because that never pays!) AAPL still good, and GTAT is very interesting. I am trying to keep my position size on round two of that one (already took large profits once) reasonable. Good to hear from you!

  170. dclark

    This is a good time to wait for everything except maybe TASR and more or less every cop in the nation has one.

  171. shadow

    Tasr is almost a "full" position in my portfolio-albeit not very large overall- as I have learned to never let anything get too large as a percentage. Still about 40% in cash and being very careful and conservative especially with new any positions. Thanks for the advice.

  172. Dan, PXLW and GLUU have also done very well for me. I only had small positions and actually debating taking some profits in PXLW.

  173. This indicator is at the highest I have seen it over the last 10 years:

    97% of S&P 100 stocks are over their 200 DMA. This indicator is actually pretty good. I am not sure how to interpret it being so high as it can stay over 90 for long periods of time. I don't think that we can call it overbought for that reason. Dipping below 50 is usually a big bearish sign. I happened at the beginning of 2008 before the market took the big dip for example.  

  174. Russell testing its 50 DMA again!

  175. skier

    Are you still holding GLUU? That one must be fun? Investing in the Kardashians? ;) !

  176. It's so much easier when you have friends in Congress:

    The House late Monday night adopted proposals by voice vote to cut funding for the Internal Revenue Service. Rep. Paul Gosar's (R-Ariz.) amendment to the fiscal 2015 Financial Services appropriations bill would cut funding for the IRS by $353 million. Specifically, Gosar's amendment would cut that funding from the IRS enforcement account and use it toward deficit reduction. [...]

    In any case, this was always inevitable. The goal of anti-IRS jihads is always to reduce funding for enforcement. And despite what Gosar might want you to believe, very little enforcement has ever been aimed at middle-class taxpayers or small nonprofits. It's mostly aimed at the rich, for obvious Willie Suttonish reasons. Weakening enforcement actions against the Republican Party's core constituency has always been the end game for the IRS scandal, and now we're finally there.

  177. Barry takes on the deleveraging story:

    It is important to note that total assets are more than six times the size of total liabilities. However, the deleveraging is being driven by asset gains over debt reduction by a ratio of about 25-to-1.

    That is a much less beautiful deleveraging than the bulls are claiming.

  178. Dan, Still holding Gluu, and can't believe, the new game is based on Kim Kardashian.  What parents let their kids play this game?  May have to sell this one soon even though it probably has room to run yet.

  179. From Bloomberg, Jul 16, 2014, 3:10:36 AM

    European stocks advanced, rebounding
    from yesterday’s decline, as a report showed China’s economy
    expanded in line with the government’s target. U.S. index
    futures and Asian shares were little changed.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  180. From Bloomberg, Jul 16, 2014, 1:27:18 AM

    July 16 (Bloomberg) — Ding Shuang, senior China economist with Citigroup Inc. in Hong Kong, talks about the world’s second-largest economy and government policies.
    China’s economic growth accelerated for the first time in three quarters after the government expedited spending and gave banks more room to lend to counter a property slump. Ding speaks with Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Television’s “On the Move.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    China’s economic growth accelerated for the first time in three quarters after the government sped up spending and freed up more money for loans to counter a property slump.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  181. From Bloomberg, Jul 16, 2014, 2:27:15 AM

    Asian stocks slid after China
    reported the world’s second-largest economy grew in line with
    the government’s target. Technology firms led declines.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  182. From Bloomberg, Jul 16, 2014, 2:05:01 AM

    July 15 (Bloomberg) — White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest talks about Israel’s acceptance of an Egyptian truce proposal for the Gaza Strip, unaccompanied children crossing the U.S.’s southern border, and the Highway Trust Fund.
    Earnest speaks at the daily White House news briefing in Washington. (Source: Bloomberg)

    Israel renewed its air raids on the Gaza Strip after a Palestinian rocket bombardment left an Egyptian truce proposal the Israelis accepted in tatters.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  183. From Bloomberg, Jul 15, 2014, 9:02:21 PM

    Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor. Photographer: Krisztian Bocsi/Bloomberg

    European Union leaders meeting in
    Brussels will consider expanded sanctions against Russia over
    the Ukraine conflict, as the U.S. urges the bloc to take a
    tougher stand against Moscow.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  184. From Bloomberg, Jul 15, 2014, 1:55:26 PM

    Howard Diamond, fueling the dream with Starbucks.

    People enter the World Series of Poker for hundreds of reasons and raise the $10,000 buy-in for the Main Event in at least as many ways. The players who get the most media attention are naturally the pros — and the occasional amateur — hugging an eight-figure bundle of cash on ESPN.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  185. From Bloomberg, Jul 15, 2014, 7:01:01 PM

    The new Boeing Sky Interior of a Boeing 737 plane is seen outside Boeing’s manufacturing facility in Renton, Washington, U.S.. Photographer: Kevin P. Casey/Bloomberg

    Feeling unloved already, coach passengers may have more to grouse about as Boeing Co. (BA) shoehorns 11 more seats into the economy cabin of a new 737 model.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  186. From Bloomberg, Jul 15, 2014, 6:06:58 PM

    Office workers are seen illuminated at dusk as they sit inside the Dubai International Financial Centre. The economy of Dubai, which narrowly averted a default almost five years ago, may grow 4.7 percent this year after recording the fastest growth in six years in 2013, according to government forecasts. Photographer: Bryn Colton/Bloomberg

    At one point last month, when stocks
    in Dubai racked up their biggest losses since 2008, as many as
    nine screens on Mohammed Ali Yasin’s desk at NBAD Securities
    were showing sell orders. There wasn’t a bid to be seen.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  187. From Bloomberg, Jul 15, 2014, 10:42:33 PM

    China’s home sales rose 33 percent
    in June from the previous month as price cuts by developers
    lured buyers.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  188. From Bloomberg, Jul 16, 2014, 12:01:00 AM

    Apple Inc. Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook and International Business Machines Corp. Chief Executive Officer Ginni Rometty at Apple headquarters in Cupertino, California, on July 15, 2014. Source: IBM via Bloomberg

    Apple Inc. (AAPL) and International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) are putting aside a rivalry started at the dawn of the personal-computing era to get more businesses to embrace iPhones and iPads.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  189. Watch this video at

    Is IBM-Apple Partnership All About Product Sales?

    July 15 (Bloomberg) — Apple and IBM will work together to create business software for iPhone and iPad users, setting aside a three-decade-old rivalry to cater to an increasingly mobile workforce. Cory Johnson and Matt Miller discuss the new partnership on “Taking Stock.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  190. Watch this video at

    Yahoo’s Earnings: All Eyes on Alibaba

    July 15 (Bloomberg) — Yahoo will return at least half of the cash it reaps from Alibaba’s IPO to investors, providing solace to shareholders who’ve hung on as CEO Marissa Mayer struggles to revive sales. Bloomberg’s Paul Sweeney and Cory Johnson have more on “Bloomberg West.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  191. Watch this video at

    Why Alan Mulally Is Joining Google’s Board

    July 15 (Bloomberg) — Bloomberg’s Cory Johnson reports on Google appointing Alan Mulally to its board of directors. He speaks on “Street Smart.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  192. Watch this video at

    Escape Rush Hour in This Flying Car

    July 15: Tucked amid the fighters and jumbo jets at the Farnborough Air Show are small companies trying to snatch a piece of the aerospace market. Parajet is a U.K. company trying to sell a flying car. Well, a para-gliding car to be exact. Parajet Managing Director Tom Prideaux-Brune explains the concept to Bloomberg.

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  193. From Bloomberg, Jul 16, 2014, 3:24:15 AM

    July 15 (Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen testifies about the U.S. economy, and central bank policy, and financial regulation.
    She delivers her semi-annual report on monetary policy before the Senate Banking Committee in Washington. (This report is the question-and-answer portion of the hearing. Source: Bloomberg)

    The dollar strengthened against most
    peers, with the New Zealand and South Korean currencies leading
    declines, after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen commented on
    the prospects for higher U.S. interest-rates. European stocks
    and Portuguese bonds rallied while oil rebounded.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  194. From Bloomberg, Jul 16, 2014, 1:26:14 AM

    An attendee plays a slot machine at an International Game Technology (IGT) booth at the Global Gaming Expo (G2E) inside the Venetian Macao resort and casino in Macau. Gtech will pay $18.25 for each share for Las Vegas-based IGT, or $13.69 in cash plus 0.1819 shares in a newly formed holding company, the Italian company said in a statement today. Photographer: Brent Lewin/Bloomberg

    Gtech SpA (GTK) agreed to buy
    International Game Technology (IGT) for $4.7 billion in cash and
    stock, uniting the world’s largest provider of lottery systems
    with the biggest slot-machine maker.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  195. From Bloomberg, Jul 16, 2014, 3:18:46 AM

    Steel production takes place at the Baosteel Group Corp. facilities in Shanghai, China. Banks from Citigroup Inc. to Deutsche Bank AG have called an end to the commodities super-cycle, when China’s surging demand for raw materials combined with supply constraints at mines and wells to more than double prices in the 12 years through 2010. Photographer: Doug Kanter/Bloomberg

    Commodities from iron ore to copper
    and Brent crude will drop over the next five years as global
    supplies climb, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which
    highlighted oil’s recent losses as a sign of increased output.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  196. Watch this video at

    Microsoft Planning Largest Job Cuts Since 2009

    July 15 (Bloomberg) — Bloomberg’s Betty Liu reports that Microsoft Chief Executive Officer Satya Nadella is preparing for the biggest round of job cuts at the company since 2009. She speaks in today’s “Movers and Shakers” on “In The Loop.”

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  197. From Bloomberg, Jul 15, 2014, 12:00:13 AM

    When defining capital, French economist Thomas Piketty excludes the kind that “consists of an individual’s labor power, skills, training and abilities” because it can’t be owned or traded on a market, according to his best-selling book “Capital in the Twenty-First Century.” Photographer: Leon Neal/AFP via Getty Images

    French economist Thomas Piketty sparked a global debate on inequality by arguing that the wealthy pull ahead by reaping disparate rewards from financial capital. He may be missing the human half of the story.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  198. From Bloomberg, Jul 15, 2014, 9:46:00 AM

    Jenaro Garcia, former chief executive officer of Let’s Gowex SA, right, exits after attending the National Court in Madrid, Spain, on Monday, July 14, 2014. Photographer: Angel Navarette/Bloomberg

    In the end, the most shocking part of Let’s Gowex SA (GOW)’s implosion this month wasn’t that the Wi-Fi company, worth 1.9 billion euros ($2.6 billion) just three months ago, was a fraud. It’s that it wasn’t spotted sooner.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  199. From Bloomberg, Jul 15, 2014, 4:11:07 PM

    Tom Laresca said that his firm cut off his ability to hold positions after the Cynk fiasco and that he plans to resign today. Source: Tom Laresca via Bloomberg

    A Wall Street trader said Cynk Technology Corp.’s (CYNK) 36,000 percent stock surge cost him his job, and he blames a short squeeze and regulators who didn’t halt the shares before the company’s value shot past $6 billion.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  200. From Bloomberg, Jul 15, 2014, 3:48:19 PM

    An Airbus A380 and an Airbus A350 on display on the first day of the Farnborough International Airshow. Photographer: Paul Thomas/Bloomberg

    Airbus Group NV (AIR) extended its lead over Boeing Co. (BA) on the second day of the Farnborough Air Show, winning orders and sales agreements valued at about $38 billion at the industry’s biggest expo.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  201. From Bloomberg, Jul 15, 2014, 6:18:22 AM

    A swan made of chocolate is displayed during the opening ceremony of World Chocolate Wonderland at Shanghai East Asia Exhibition Hall in Shanghai, China. Photographer: ChinaFotoPress/ChinaFotoPress via Getty Images

    Surging consumption of chocolate in Asia is pushing cocoa-bean prices to the highest level in three years as buyers including Barry Callebaut AG expand their search for more supply.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  202. From Bloomberg, Jul 15, 2014, 2:28:35 AM

    Containers are loaded onto trucks at a shipping terminal in Tokyo. Rising interest rates will limit capital inflows to emerging markets, while Japan’s exporters will benefit from global expansion as well as a weaker currency, according to Philipp Baertschi, Zurich-based chief investment officer for private clients.

    Bank J. Safra Sarasin Ltd. is adding
    Japanese stocks for the first time in at least five years,
    speculating they will rise as the world’s biggest pension fund
    buys shares and the global economy expands.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  203. Watch this video at

    China Will See a Technical Rebound in Q3: Wan

    July 16 (Bloomberg) –- Credit Suisse Private Banking and Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer for Asia-Pacific Fan Cheuk Wan discusses China’s economy, its growth risks and investing in the country with David Ingles, Rosalind Chin, John Dawson and Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Television’s “Asia Edge.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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  204. Watch this video at

    China’s Economy Is Growing at 6% This Year: Whelan

    July 16 (Bloomberg) –- Asianomics Deputy Chief Economist Sharmila Whelan discusses China’s economy growing for the first time in three months with GDP rising by 7.5%. She speaks to Caroline Hyde, Jonathan Ferro and Ryan Chilcote on Bloomberg Television’s “Countdown.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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  205. Watch this video at

    Will U.K. Hike Rates Before the End of the Year?

    July 16 (Bloomberg) –- JPMorgan Asset Management Chief Market Strategist Stephanie Flanders discusses U.K. inflation data and if rates will rise before the end of the year with Ryan Chilcote, Jonathan Ferro and Caroline Hyde on Bloomberg Television’s “Countdown.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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  206. Watch this video at

    China Economy in `Broad Deceleration’: Miller

    July 16 (Bloomberg) — Leland Miller, president of China Beige Book International, talks about the nation’s economy, credit growth and government policies.
    Data today will likely show economic growth expanded 7.4 percent in the second quarter according to the median estimate of analysts. Miller speaks from New York with John Dawson on Bloomberg Television’s “First Up.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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  207. From Bloomberg, Jul 16, 2014, 2:19:31 AM

    Demand surpassed supply in the Japan
    for the first time in six years, adding to inflationary pressure
    in the world’s third-biggest economy.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  208. From Bloomberg, Jul 16, 2014, 12:01:00 AM

    Chile became the third Latin
    American nation in two months to resume interest rate cuts after
    inflation slowed and the economy grew at the slowest pace in
    four years.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  209. From Bloomberg, Jul 16, 2014, 12:00:01 AM

    Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is keeping a closer eye on the American paycheck these days.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  210. From Bloomberg, Jul 15, 2014, 5:29:21 PM

    July 15 (Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen testifies about the U.S. economy, and central bank policy, and financial regulation.
    She delivers her semi-annual report on monetary policy before the Senate Banking Committee in Washington. (This report is the question-and-answer portion of the hearing. Source: Bloomberg)

    Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen told lawmakers the central bank must press on with record monetary stimulus to combat persistent job-market weakness.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  211. From Bloomberg, Jul 15, 2014, 3:55:36 PM

    July 15 (Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen testifies about the U.S. economy, and central bank policy, and financial regulation.
    She delivers her semi-annual report on monetary policy before the Senate Banking Committee in Washington. (This report is the question-and-answer portion of the hearing. Source: Bloomberg)

    Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen
    warned she sees signs of asset price bubbles forming in some
    markets such as those for leveraged loans and lower-rated
    corporate debt, while indicating stocks aren’t overvalued.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  212. From Bloomberg, Jul 15, 2014, 4:54:06 PM

    Pedestrians in San Francisco, California. Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg

    Sales at U.S. retailers climbed in June as department stores, clothing outlets and Internet merchants led a broad-based gain that will help provide momentum for the economy in the second half of the year.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  213. From Bloomberg, Jul 15, 2014, 12:44:10 PM

    Obamacare doesn’t poll well, but that doesn’t mean voters want to do away with it.

    Democrats received a bit of good news in two Marist/NBC Senate polls today showing Mark Udall in Colorado and Gary Peters in Michigan holding solid, though not especially large, leads. Throw these results into the polling averages, and Democrats appear to be ahead in both states.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  214. IBM up $5 pre-market adding 40 Dow points, that's lifting the Futures all by itself.  AAPL up too so that's boosting Nas and S&P – RUT only 1,152.50 still lagging.  

    IBM to Sell iPads, iPhones

    Apple and IBM struck an agreement to create simple-to-use business apps and sell iPhones and iPads to Big Blue's corporate customers.

    INTC good too:

    Intel(INTC) earnings beat estimates, shares jump. Intel shares rallied after the firm reported quarterly earnings and revenue that beat analysts' expectations on Tuesday, citing stronger-than-expected demand for corporate PCs. After the earnings announcement, the company's shares rose more than 4 percent in extended-hours trading.

    Europe is off to the races with 1.25%ish gains into lunch.    

    Oil is popping back to $101 as Iraq gets ugly again and Iran Nuclear deal is falling apart:

    Saudis on Alert at Iraq Border for Conflict Spillover

    Iran Nuclear Deal Falters as Contingency Plans Considered

    Beige Book today!

    Global equity melt-up in full swing even if investors hate themselves. (graph) So in a sense, the equity rally is a function of the collective acts of monetary authorities pushing investors into stocks. This of course is why the BIS is in despair. “Overall, it is hard to avoid the sense of a puzzling disconnect between the markets’ buoyancy and underlying economic developments globally,” it said. Just wait until the Fed tightens in earnest.

    Why The Status-Quo Is Unsustainable: Interest and Debt (What Yellen Won't Tell You)

    Strategist Warns SKEW "Is Flashing A Big Warning Signal For Stocks"

    Are Share Buybacks About To Hit A Brick Wall

    GMO: "Nothing Feels Right About These New Market Highs"

    Financial Markets — Rated "R"

    Every Time Is Different, And The Same

    Draghi Knows Narratives Are No Longer Enough, But "There Are No Easy Choices Here"

    "China Is Fixed" GDP & Industrial Production Beat As Retail Sales Miss & Home Prices Tumble

    Chinese property developers at risk as trust funds dry up

    SOCGEN: The 'Dark Cloud Of A Housing Downturn' Still Looms For The Chinese Economy

    Hershey(HSY) increases prices as costs rise

    Market Rigging Explained