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$29 Trillion Tuesday – Central Banksters Gone Wild!

Fake it 'till you make it.  

While it was Aristotle who said that "acting virtuous will make one virtuous" (and clearly Aristotle hasn't been to the same charity events/wealth orgies that I have, or he never would have said it), it is our modern Central Banking system that decrees that "acting like the economy is better will make the economy better."  

Now, perhaps if they had spent $29,000,000,000,000 by giving 7Bn people $4,142.85 each – we WOULD have a better economy now – but that's not what happened at all, is it?  Instead, 70,000 people and corporations (the top 0.0001%) got an average of $414M each while the other 99.9999% of us, especially the bottom 90% actually are now worse off than when the Central Banksters decided to meddle in our affairs in the first place.  

The rich are indeed getting stunningly richer with the Forbes 400 (richest Americans) AVERAGING $800M gains in 2013 as the stock market (where most of their money is) rose over 30%.  Again – AVERAGE gains of $800M per Billionaire!  Once you get past #50 on the list (Google's Eric Schmidt with $8.3Bn), that's AT LEAST 10% of their total net worth added in a single year!

 As I said in our recent trade review "Thank You Sir, MAY I Have Another", if they are just going to keep giving away money like this – we're going to just have to keep taking it (through our many bullish trade ideas) but, at some point, the music will stop and you'd BETTER be able to find a chair fast!  

There's a very good reason the Corporate Media is constantly telling you how bad "class warfare" would be - BECAUSE THEY ARE ALREADY WINNING THE WAR AND YOU ARE NOT EVEN FIGHTING!!!

Like any good game of musical chairs, we have no idea when the music is going to stop, so we all have to keep dancing around like nothing is wrong until it does.  As I pointed out yesterday, it's very easy to pay $150Bn for Amazon (at $327 per share) with money you just printed because the stock is TECHNICALLY worth something while the money you (a Central Bankster) are printing is quite literally not worth the paper it's printed on.  

Now we are trapped in a cycle because China is printing money and using it to buy up 3% of the World's equities for about $3Tn and, as I noted yesterday, Norway's Central Bank has been converting oil money into 2.5% of all the stock in Europe.  How can the US sit by and allow other Central Banks to own everything – don't we love socializing corporations as much as the Communists and Socialists?   

While we're not quite at the point where China demands a board seat at Raytheon, GE or Boeing, Chrysler already went to Fiat and other corporations are disappearing in a flurry of M&A activity almost no one can keep track of anymore.  

Softbank (Japan) is buying Sprint and DT (Germany) is grabbing TMobile and that leaves just two American companies (T and VZ) in charge of our nation's telecommunications.  Isn't this exactly what anti-trust legislation was supposed to prevent?  

In fact, if you look at the above chart of Content Providers, it very closely mirrors that very same Forbes 400 list we started with, doesn't it?  Content is indeed king and never has so much of it been in the hands of so very few.  

Of course, at the height of the Dot Com Bubble, $2.7 BILLION was tied up in 10 companies that went bust about a year later and many, many Billions of other Dollars were lost as well – never to be found again – until NOW!  Now, just 14 years later, we have AMZN ($150Bn), EBAY ($62Bn), FB ($164Bn), GMCR ($20Bn)  LNKD ($20Bn), NFLX ($25Bn), PCLN ($63Bn), TSLA ($28Bn), TWTR ($22Bn) and, amazingly, YHOO ($29Bn) again for a total of $586Bn (200x the mistake of 1999) for 10 companies that don't earn $5Bn (1% or p/e of 100+) between them.  

HAVE WE LOST OUR FREAKIN' MINDS???   Apparently so if we think paying AMZN 500 times what it earns in a year for the privilege of owning each one half of one billionth of the company per share that pays NO DIVIDENDS to be a good idea.  NFLX seems like a bargain at just 162 times earnings – or at least they will until people realize how much they are spending on content development and customer aquisitions when they miss earnings next month (we're short).  

There's a fundamantal flaw in investor understanding of math that has to do with both income disparity and stock valuations.  Investors value our modern-day dot-com companies because they buy into the growth story and they feel that, within about 5 years, the growth will be such that the p/e's of those companies comes down to something resembling AAPL (15) or GOOG (28) or CSCO (16) or MSFT (15). 

That would be lovely but that means those companies need to earn $25Bn and, the question is, where is that money going to come from?  If their plan was to get the money from the Forbes 400 – I would think they might have a chance as those guys just dropped $3.2Tn into their bank accounts but our 10 moden dot-com companies have to get their money from the other 309,999,600 Americans and THOSE PEOPLE are 10% POORER than they were in 1999 – it's not too likely they have $25Bn more to give, not to mention $25Bn in PROFIT is likely to require at lease $125Bn in sales – even at 20% margins (doubtful).

 

So where will 300M Americans come up with $125Bn a year?  That's $416 per citizen and that would be assuming every citizen used every one of those services.  Of course, figure globally they only need about $100 per year from the average user – might be doable but who are we taking that money from?  Withough economic growth for the bottom 90% – the money has to be taken from one place to be given to another – so who will suffer enough to boost Amazon's earnings 20x and bring them down to a semi-reasonable p/e?  

The good news is inflation is on a tear, with CPI up 0.4% this morth – the most since Feb 2013.  As you can see from the Nominal Growth line above, even though, IN REALITY, Median Household Incomes in the US have DROPPED over 7% in the past 14 years, inflation has pushed nominal growh up 27%, making things LOOK 34% better than they actually are.  Looking 34% better than they actually are is pretty much what the current stock market is all about this year. 

Let's enjoy it – while it lasts….

 


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  1. nflx??


  2. Good Morning!


  3. NFLX moving on the fact that the FCC is looking into net neutrality deals it entered into and possibly reversing them in NFLX's favor.


  4. Though none of the deals will be made public.


  5. Morning.

    Phil: I wanted to follow up on TGT holding $55. Any bullish trade ideas or do we wait for further confirmation of the $55 support? Thanks


  6. TSLA model X

    The new exciting release. One should ask what release? Deliveries next fall. The X says it all, nothing on size, range from a charge, price, or even a conceptual image. It needs to compete with other cars at a price considerably below the famed BMW electric meaning below $30,000,make a profit, and somehow have the battery to take it further than any other car or it will not work in the Super Charger network for the S. The problem is no billionaire can not understand the masses can't afford a super cheap car. 


  7. Phil inflation

    That will in theory save the institutions but the sticking point is the higher prices go with no increase in income for 90+% of people the situation only gets worse as consumption goes down. Yesterday I realized it took 20 months for me to drive 6,000 miles. I love to drive and although 10 years old a very fun car to drive. In 1979 I drove 120,000 miles and I estimate 50 to 60,000 during the 70's and 80's. Even the 90's or so 20,000. That is what 13 years has done to me and 250 million others. Can't afford the fuel and even if we scrape that together no money to do anything when you get there.


  8. Phil / NFLX – I must have missed the bearish play on NFLX mentioned it the morning post.  Can you suggest a new one on the pop this morning. Thanks. 


  9. Good morning!  

    Chain store sales were fine but retail sales for May were up a very lame 0.4% and that is up from -2.8% on the last reading – so not even a tiny bit impressive.  

    Housing starts also lame and permits slipped too:

    • May Housing Starts: 1.001K vs. 1.034K expected and 1.071K prior (revised).
    • Permits 991K vs. 1.02M expected and 1.059M prior (revised).

    We'll see if it matters but our shorting lines are working already (from 7:16):

    /YM 16,700, /ES 1,930, /NQ 3,775 and /TF 1,161 are the lines to watch for long or short on the laggard.  They're all on the lines at the moment with /TF highest at 1,163 and they just dropped half a point so a 0.1% weak bounce back is expected in the very least and THEN we shall see. 

    Dollar still 80.60 – also will give us directional clues.  Oil $106.21 after testing $106 at night.  Gold $1,265, silver $19.54, copper $3.06, nat gas $4.69 and gasoline $3.068.

    The Pound is testing $1.70 on rumors Carney is going to have to fight inflation (UK housing bubble out of control), the Euro is $1.356 and the Yen is $101.97, which keeps the Nikkei happy at 15,035.

    Don't forget the Fed is tomorrow, so hope should spring eternal until then (and Yellen's speech). 

    • The higher-than-forecast 0.4% rise in the CPI in May (with core CPI +0.3% also ahead of estimates) sends Treasury yields higher, with the 10-year up two basis points to 2.62%.TLT -0.3%, TBT +0.6%. At the short end, Dec. 2016 Eurodollar futures are lower by 4 basis points (thus pricing in a higher Fed Funds rate at that time).
    • Previously: May CPI at +0.4%, exceeds consensus
    • On the flip side, housing starts in May disappointed, slipping 6.5% from April's pace. The annual rate of 1M is still 9.4% ahead of the pace in May 2013. Single-family housing starts in May of 625K were 5.9% lower than April.
    • Building permits of 991K were 6.4% lower than April and down 1.9% from a year ago.
    • Previously: Housing starts a bit shy of forecast
    • Count IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde as another proponent of raising the federal minimum wage in the U.S.
    • Lagarde points to the 50M working Americans living below the poverty level in making her claim that "we" have to do something about it.
    • Legislation on a minimum wage increase has been stalled in Congress, but is likely to be teed up as mid-term election issue.
    • Related stocks: MCDBKWSONCDENNWMTJACKGTIMWENTASTPLKIPZZA,YUMNATHCKECAMCRGC.
    • Deutsche Bank's (DB) Japanese securities unit – Deutsche Securities – spent ¥22.1M ($217K) entertaining officials from 45 funds managing public pensions between 2010 and 2012, according to a report seen by Bloomberg. Deutsche Securities COO Bret Dandoy approved expenses for at least some of this and Chairman Norimichi Kanari joined in the festivities on one occasion, according to the report.
    • Japanese criminal law prohibits companies from picking up the tab for public servants with the intention of obtaining business, but both Dandoy and Kanari maintain they weren't aware pension officials were regarded as civil servants.
    • Deutsche Securities salesman Shigeru Echigo is currently at trial over these charges and faces a one-year prison term.
    • Coffee output in India is forecast to rise after suffering a setback last year.
    • Higher production from the region could increase global supply to pressure prices after a drought in Brazil has had major impact on the coffee market.
    • Prices on bagged coffee has been increased by a wave of companies including J.M. Smucker and Kraft Foods.
    • Wholesale coffee prices still have a big wildcard in the mix with the emergence of El Nino.
    • Related stocks: SJMKRFTTHISBUXGMCRMCDJVAKRFTDNKN.
    • Related ETF: JO
    • European car registrations rose 4.5% in May to 1.13M units to mark the 9th consecutive month of a year-over-year sales gain.
    • All the EU nations showed positive growth during the month with the exception of Italy which saw a 3.8% falloff.
    • Sales growth by automaker: Volkswagen (VLKAY) +9.6%, Peugeot (PEUGY) +4.3%, Fiat (FIATY) +5.6%, General Motors (GM) -6.8%, Renault (RNSDF) +18.8%, Daimler (DDAIF) +3.6%, Toyota (TM) +3.4%, Ford (F) -2.0%, BMW (BAMXY) -2.2%, Fiat (FIATY) -2.7%, Nissan (NSANY) +10.7%, Hyundai (HYMLF) -2.7%

     

    • Wal-Mart China (WMT) plans to increase its spending on a food safety program to 300M yuan ($48.3M) per year - Wow, that's almost 4 cents per Chinese citizen – you KNOW they must be serious this time!  
    • The amount is triple what the company originally said it would spend on the initiative.
    • Wal-Mart is coming off of a year where it saw a few different food scandals in the nation.

  10. A lot of insider buying at PSEC.  Stock pays 12.5%+ dividend

    Eliasek M Grier COO 2014-06-12 Buy 24,000
    Barry John F CEO  2014-06-12 Buy 100,00

    Stark  Eugene S Director 2014-06-12 Buy 1,000 
    OSWALD BRIAN H CFO,CCO,Treasury and Secretary 2014-06-12 Buy 30,000 

    Might be worth a look.


  11. FU TSLA!!!

    FU NFLX!!!


  12. Elon speaks on CNBC at 4 today, about space X but you know that always gives a pump to TSLA as seen today,.


  13. NFLX/Rustle, Jabob – At $26.6Bn, they are now valued more than HBO ($23.7Bn ) and HBO has has 30 years to push into every possible marketplace and find what price the market will bear for their service.  That value is from Trefis, who break HBO out of TWX for us.  I guess if you think NFLX is somehow different than HBO, who are also on the Web and on Tivo and Satellites and have Apps and their own shows and are in every country with on-demand programs and hit shows – then sure, you can pay up for them.  

    HBO has 127M subscribers and NFLX has 40M and even if they grow 30% every year – it would take them 5 years to get that big (and we're assuming 5x faster growth than HBO, who had no real competition when they started).  I simply don't see it.  As I was saying above – it's just a math problem and you can't get there from here.  It may take a long time for investors to realize that – but, at some point – they will.  

    TGT/Decad – I remember I wanted to see how they handled $55 and they handled it well, it seems.  $62.50 was last year's mid-point and they are on track to do 10% better than last year, even with the downward revisions so I certainly like selling the 2016 $50 puts for $3.20.  I don't feel good enough about the market to be more aggressive than that but, after earnings, if they go up, you would have, essentially, a free $3.20 to put towards a bull spread that won't have moved too much.  

    TSLA/Shadow – They are talking about their SUV, not the cheap car Musk promised.  That is fully diagramed, etc. and people are, in fact, making deposits.  

    Inflation/Shadow – Driving is not as much fun when you have to stop every 400 miles and put another $60 in the tank.  I remember we used to drive from NY to Florida and it was about $50 for gas each way for 4 of us so $10 each was about what we earned per hour at work in the 80s.  Now kids still earn $10 (if they have jobs) per hour and the gas is $200 – you simply can't afford to take the trip!  

    RUT exploding higher!  Back over 1,170.  Lagger to the upside is /ES, now 1,931 so good for a bull play over 1,930 ($50 risk).  


  14. EZCH – My sleeper stock of the year, which so far has been just that, upgraded to strong buy at Feltl.


  15. NFLX/Phil

    I'm not arguing the valuation, I agree with you, but there are shorts filling today and I have no doubt others want to see it break the 457 high.  You already had your analysts come out with their over $500 targets and who knows if another drinks the Kool Aid in the next week.  I'm currently long on them in the very short term.  They are definitely starting to take people off of cable though as studies have shown.  I wonder if Comcast or Time Warner might be stocks to be bearish on in the next couple of years.


  16. TSLA same way, I waited 2 months for some stupid news and sure enough, it popped and the propaganda train is rolling.  Just pissed that I didn't do a bull call spread for 7/11 yesterday when I could've.  Could've done a 215/225 for $5 when the stock was at 220, so we're not even talking at the beginning of the run.  Just wrote puts instead for the week.


  17. with you albo —- perhaps the drought is over ; >


  18. PSEC-How can their revenues be so good, but the cash flow sucks? They met their earnings goal, but are below their 50 dma & have been for awhile. Haven't seen a chart like this for ages. Looks like they are paying out everything in dividends. Macd on the rise-hmmm.


  19. PSEC – They are a BDC, which requires them to payout 90% of their earnings, and tax no tax at the corporate level, so not the typical dividend. I have owned them for a long time. Given the dividend, the option premiums suck, but they occasionally raise cash thru another offering, that is the time to buy or sell puts. They recently won an issue with the SEC which would have required them to restate, and they have been going up since. In sum, its a nice, boring, long term hold that pays a nice dividend. Selling calls on it is no fun, but can be insurance when they're high. Excellent management team.


  20. NFLX/Pfehl – We are bearish in the STP since 5/19 with the June $305 puts at $2.20, now worthless.  We took 3 of the Jan $475/425 bear put spreads at $30 ($9,000) and sold 2 of the July $420 puts for $20 ($4,000) to get back our losses over time and that spread's about the same and working with NFLX at $429 as earnings are after expiration so we'll likely let those 2 shorts expire and then hope for a nice drop.  

    PSEC/Albo – Well, if we assume the market never corrects, then mezz financing is a good business.  My issue with them (companies like this) is that I simply don't have time to pay attention to them and they can go up and down 10% without any kind of news hitting the wires since so few people care about these businesses.  It's kind of a niche specialty – just make sure you stay on top of them (and their holdings) through news-feeds and keep a close eye on rates – which can affect them drastically.  

    Keep in mind, this is what it's like to own these guys in a bad week:

    Of course they came back almost right away – just make sure you are able to ride out a 50% drop in the stock after some bad news.  Personally, I prefer to buy AFTER they have a nice 25-50% drop, rather than chase them on small dips.  

    You should at least be thanking PCLN Jabob…

    Elon/Rustle – You know he'll drop a hint about something.  

    EZCH/Albo – I thought they were cracking down on those guys?  

    TWX/Rustle – I don't see shorting them or CMCSA – too strong.  I still think the easier call is shorting NFLX on earnings but, as I noted above, prior to earnings, we targeted them to hold $420 so no surprise here.  

    Right way to play them Deano.  


  21. PCLN – why would all the other momos be melting up and PCLN just sits there after a bunch of positive analyst recommendations?  Methinks They are suppressing the price until they have acquired their fill…


  22. MY bet for a downer is DTV-their volume is way down, but the play with T still in the air it's  a big if. I doubt that they will get the OK for the merger-what does it benefit anyone? Personally we are about to quit all the  providers & thousands are just doing just  that. We bought a "smart" tv & can stream about anything. I'm going to look into Hulu plus, about the same price as NFLX & you get the programs a day late.


  23. PCLN/MrM; the lure of a $1200 pin on expirations week is too much to pass up.


  24. Winston, thinking about PCLN's pin on a Tuesday seems a bit far fetched, last week they opened at 1238, ran to 1260, faded to 1190 by Friday, do you think you could have predicted Friday's close on Tuesday?


  25. TSLA is starting to look tired here.  Can write 247.50 or 245 calls here.


  26. meant calls for this week


  27. PSEC – Selling the Nov $10 Cs against the stock is a nice ROI.  Puts when they drop as Pirate says.


  28. Phil TSLA

    Sorry I don't remember what doesn't matter. I thought they were coming out with a more reasonable priced car. What does that cost? At least a model S? I would bet most are sold to people that bought the car, either to have 2 ??? greenish or god help them trade ins as used are not selling yet, need way bigger depreciation like other high end cars 50% in 3 years. Another out of reach and touch Musky idea.


  29. Markets slipping down-here we go we hope. I have never been able to understand PCLN? I have tried & tried to use them with no success. YOU try to book a room in a city & don't know which hotel??? PLEASE- they got to be kidding?? And do that internationally-no way. I have tried air tickets, everything & never GOT AN EMAIL BACK. I truly think they are into nefarious activity's of some sort. And the valuation is crazy.


  30. Phil; would you short /CL at 106.50?


  31. HBO / Phil – In a lot of countries, viewers are not HBO subscribers per se like in the US where they pay $20/month for the service. It's a matter of fact, in most cases the shows like GoT run in syndication in other channels. For example, in France, they run over over a couple of channels – one of them a premium channel. So HBO doesn't get a monthly payment like the US, but a syndication fee which is much lower than they would get from a subscriber based on the cost of the premium channel in country. I imagine that if the French channel charges $20/month for access (which they do), they won't give 100% to HBO since HBO content is only about 5% (if that) of the programming. 

    That makes it hard to make an exact comparison between HBO and NFLX on a per viewer basis. That doesn't make NFLX priced correctly either! Actually, who knows how much it's worth, but being short looks dangerous now.


  32. MrM; any commentary on PCLN is, by default, far fetched :)


  33. options-alpa

    I wouldn't be too surprised if hes too busy shorting oil at 107 to answer .

    tom


  34. PCLN/MrM – Because they just overpaid for OPEN – people aren't complete idiots, some are bound to be unsatisfied enough to get out of the stock over that news. 

    Cutting the cord/Pirate – And AAPL TV still waiting in the wings.  If they do to TV what ITunes did to music – that will have a huge impact.  

    Model X/Shadow – There may be 10,000 people waiting for them but then there's some noise that TSLA is double-counting people who originally signed up for an X but upgraded to the X+ (not sure what the difference is).

    Wow, RUT down from 1,172 back to 1,165 and that was al up from 1,158 – CRAZY! 

    Oil back over $107 for no actual reason so of course we take a stab at shorting but VERY tight stops over the line as they could make $107.50 into inventories tomorrow.  

    PCLN/Pirate – It's not for people who can afford a good hotel or airline.  One of the things we pay for is the convenience – it's just not worth saving $50 or even $100 to have all that uncertainty added to your trip.  Hotels are bad enough but they are out of their minds with airfare – booking flights that you have no idea when it takes off or lands with random stopovers – who the Hell has time for those games?    Still, if I were in college and had the option, I probably would have used them all the time.   I took Laker and even Air India (yes, worse than Laker) to Europe to save money – PCLN can't be worse than that!  

    Then you have to consider what people are used to in China and India – they are just thrilled to be going somewhere and it sure doesn't bother the average Indian to be stuffed into a seat – have you seen their trains?  

    These are not people who are worried about getting stuck in the center seat of a 767!  

    Oil/Options – LOL, well I sure do like the short at $107!  I wasn't feeling it earlier so no call but now we have a stronger line (hopefully) to backstop off of.  

    NFLX/StJ – On the other hand, TWX does, in fact, make $3.7Bn on $30Bn in sales, about 40% of which is HBO while NFLX grosses $4.3Bn and drops $100M to the bottom line.  I don't understand this mumbo-jumbo that it's "hard" to make comparisons.  Yes, NFLX makes no money and TWX/HBO makes lots of it running essentially (in the grand scheme of things) model.  Will people stop paying $20/month to watch TV in France and give $10/month to NFLX instead?  No, so their model is either to be an add-on service, which would limit their appeal – or they would, like HBO, syndicate their content.  

    NFLX knows this, they know they need content to syndicate or they will never grow their subscriber base enough to be more than a small niche player – and they are certainly not priced to be a small, niche player while they CERTAINLY have the revenues and earnings of one!  

    Still lots of contracts to roll by Friday, by the way:

    Click for
    Chart
    Current Session Prior Day Opt's
    Open High Low Last Time Set Chg Vol Set Op Int
    Jul'14 106.59 107.10 106.01 106.98 11:15
    Jun 17


    -

    0.08 105221 106.90 135072 Call Put
    Aug'14 106.02 106.60 105.45 106.49 11:15
    Jun 17


    -

    0.19 84625 106.30 270921 Call Put
    Sep'14 105.09 105.70 104.53 105.59 11:15
    Jun 17


    -

    0.26 23861 105.33 174653 Call Put
    Oct'14 103.95 104.55 103.45 104.46 11:15
    Jun 17


    -

    0.30 12961 104.16 113095 Call Put

    Usually, over 25,000 a day is trouble – this seems like trouble and this ($107) MIGHT be a blow-off spike before the sell-off.  


  35. Pirate/PCLN –  when was the last time you used PCLN?  They are over a year into phasing out the bidding model.  Booking.com is a great, easy to book & cancel site, particularly internationally.  Ever use Kayak?  Now they are Open Table too…I am not long per se, but their valuation if FAR from ridiculous.  An option day-traders dream


  36. Phil, when do you start trading "Q" August futures?


  37. I have a friend who works for HBO and they absolutely consider NFLX the competition.


  38. Pharma-something going on with ACRX-vol spiking for the last 5 days & just got above 50 & 20 ma-any insight?


  39. USO/Phil: I don't currently have a USO position. I know the official play is the June 39 put with only 3 days remaining. 4th of July Holiday (also my birthday) has to be a consideration in new trade entry…. would you consider a July put (say the 39) or a  July 40/38 Bear put?


  40. MRVL/Phil – I expected they would have gone up with the INTC news along with other PC-centric players, but instead seem to have lost momentum. Are their components falling out of use?


  41. Phil

    TSLA 10,000 waiting means 10,000 people talked to them some may be multiple times, deposits on the car, that counts. Smells Musky to me. A few parts stores thought I would buy a battery a week ago but didn't, water and charging made it work again.


  42. The Russell is making new highs.  Why all the concern about a possible market drop?  Dr. Yellen will tell us what we want to hear. 


  43. Is there a webinar today?


  44. XRT back in the ozone layer bouncing around 86.30 to 86.40.


  45. PCLN/Cdel – You are right on that.  As I keep telling Jabob – over and over and over and over – PCLN is not an overvalued Momo – they are a tremendously successful company with fantastic growth!  

    Speaking of HBO – Was that the last episode of Game of Thrones on Sunday?  If so – a bit of a disappointment for a season finale.  

    Oil/Options – Oops, almost forgot!  Friday is the last day of /CLN4!  That's the one that just hit $107 (now $106.80 + another $200, thanks very much!) and we now want to move on to /CLQ4 (August) by tomorrow night, which is at $106.40 after topping out at $106.70 earlier.  

    USO/Jbur – I think it's a bad short into the holiday weekend so I think we'll take a time out on USO until after then – unless we get a really crazy move up over $110 that we can't resist.  

    MRVL/Scott – They are moving up 2% today, that's not so bad.  Also, it's not like they are cheap, with a p/e of 21 vs 16 for INTC and up from $7.50 last year, so 200% in two years – I think people have had their fun with this one.  

    TSLA/Shadow – I'm pretty sure those are deposits but the issue is the double-counting of people who put money on an X but then upgraded to the luxury X when it was announced.  I like this note:

    So what has Tesla done to make the Model X more appealing to women, who prefer the Nissan Leaf to the Tesla Model S by almost a 2-to-1 margin? Musk wouldn’t talk specifics, though one feature everybody would find useful would be a more accurate range estimator. Less in-your-face technology with more practical uses would also help appeal to the fairer sex, and the Model X might also place less important on performance, and more on a comfortable riding experience. Regardless, Tesla already has more than 12,000 pre-orders for the Model X, meaning there’s a large chunk of people who don’t care about specifics; they just want a Tesla SUV.

    Market drop/Sibe – The question is, at what point is the Fed unable to keep things going?  If it cost the Central Banks $6Tn per year for the last 5 years to pump the market from S&P 800 to S&P 1,900, that's 137% so call it 28% per year (and that's what we did last year) for $6Tn.  But, logically, it costs twice as much to go from 1,500 to 1,800 (20%) as it did to go from 800 to 960 so figure it used to cost $3Tn a year and now costs $9Tn.   Here's our Fed's share (now about $4.2Tn, which is up about 50% since last year).

    Going further than this, at that rate of expansion, we'd be looking at $6Tn+ for the Fed and that means $45Tn from the Global Banksters and that is getting very close to the entire $70Tn GDP of the planet – all in stimulus.  At some point (God knows when) something has to give!  

    Webinar begins at 1pm – CLICK HERE!  

    XRT/Den – Glad we waited.  


  46. All: NFLX Jan 16 340 Short Put at 38.70, Stop at 58.40;  PCLN Jan 16 850 Short Put at 49.60 Stop at 55.98. My bet is that these will not be put to me and if they are, I'll buy them at the discounted price.


  47. MRVL – Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe this is still hanging over them.

    Law360, Los Angeles (March 31, 2014, 9:27 PM ET) — A Pennsylvania federal judge on Monday added more than $366 million to Carnegie Mellon University’s patent infringement jury award — now totaling $1.54 billion — against Marvell Technology Group Ltd. in a dispute over disk drive technology patents, while denying CMU’s bid for enhanced damages at a higher rate.
     


  48. Rally seems to be being caused by lame Senate hearings on HFT.  Essentially, they are allowing the HFT traders to "explain" how necessary they are for the system and what a valuable role they play in the market.  They might even pin a medal on them by the time they are done with this white-wash BS!  So the brokers (ETFC, SCHW, AMTD, IBKR) are flying up along with the RUT, which manipulators love and, of course, the Banksters are celebrating and XLF is flying too.  

    Now China is going to start buying some gold!  

    • China's largest gold mining company, China National Gold, is on the hunt for global acquisitions and partnerships, and recently talked about potential partnerships with Barrick Gold (ABX+0.3%), President Xin Song says.
    • Both parties are looking for potential opportunities jointly, Song says, but those are not likely to include an investment in the Pascua Lama mine ABX has put on hold amid cost overruns and environmental demands from Chile's government; the the project has several challenges, including its high elevation, its permitting troubles and high capital expenditure.
    • China National is no longer in talks with Ivanhoe Mines (IVPAF) on African investment, Song says.
    • At just 4.94%, the yield on the BAML U.S. high-yield index slipped below its record-low level set 13 months ago, Maybe more importantly, underlying Treasury yields are about 75 basis points higher today than they were when the record was set in May 2013, meaning spreads are way narrower today – just 3.43% vs. 4.23% last year.
    • The all-time low spread of 2.4% was set in June 2007, meaning there's plenty of room for junk yields to fall further as long as there's no upset in the Treasury market.
    • Junk bonds have now gained 5.36% YTD, not bad for a class yielding just 5.67% at the start of 2014.
    • ETFs: HYGJNKHYLDSJBHYHGANGLHYLSUJBXOVRTHHYQLTCHYGH
    • A week of surging prices for oil and gold are reversing, as worries about instability in Iraq that have dominated the market in recent days recede a bit.
    • At last check, July WTI crude was down 0.4% to $106.44/bbl on the New York Merc, and the global Brent contract was down 0.2% to $112.69 after briefly topping $114/bbl last week, as the market has "run out of buying momentum" with no interruption in the flow of oil from Iraq or any sign that the fighting is spreading to the southern oil region.
    • August gold is down 0.6% to $1,267.90/oz.; with market participants apparently not rating the geopolitical risks quite as highly as before, gold is in less demand as a safe haven, and Commerzbank notes yesterday's outflows in gold ETFs tracked by Bloomberg totaled 3.8 tons, their highest daily outflow in nearly two weeks.
    • Beef prices keep moving higher as a drought in Texas diminishes what's already a tight supply of cattle in the U.S.
    • Though beef demand in the U.S. is peaking with the summer grilling season starting, the impact on margins for sellers from higher wholesale prices could be felt later this year when consumers push back against absorbing the extra costs.
    • What to watch: Chipotle (CMG) passed on its menu price increases to consumers with relative ease, but other chains (MCDBKWWENTXRHBLMNRUTH) are expected to feel pressure on their bottom lines from higher beef prices.
    • No one ever accused Elon Musk's companies of thinking small: In a blog post discussing SolarCity's (SCTYacquisition of module developer Silevo, the company states it's in talks with the state of NY to build an initial module plant with "a targeted capacity of greater than 1GW."
    • Moreover, the company will later build "one or more significantly larger plants at an order of magnitude greater annual production capacity."
    • SolarCity, in remarks that bring to mind Tesla's Gigafactory plans: "Our intent is to combine what we believe is fundamentally the best photovoltaic technology with massive economies of scale to achieve a breakthrough in the cost of solar power."
    • In spite of today's module capacity glut, SolarCity asserts shortages are only a matter of time as solar demand grows, in the absence of huge investments. SolarCity has thus far relied on 3rd-party module suppliers for its installations.
    • Silevo claims its Triex technology enables solar cells with 22%+ efficiency and 5%-12% greater energy harvest in arid climates, while remaining cost-competitive with low-cost silicon cell producers. The company has been eying both residential/commercial and utility-scale projects.

  49. QUIK – Has now fully recovered from the sell off triggered by weak second quarter forecast.


  50. If you have a spare 20min, really good watch.  Go HPQ, looks like step 1 for the terminator.


  51. I close my USO puts and look there goes oil minutes after..

    (not that it made $10 difference yet, but still.. )


  52. STJ/Excel Sheet,

    Can you post the excel sheet image that you use to track your strangles and straddles? Is that an excel sheet? Do you use prices from yahoo or bloomberg? Thanks for sharing.


  53. STJ

    What did the Peter Strangles start with in JAN 2014   $20,000?  $25,000?

     

    THX


  54. burrben The Machine

    Who got the name first HP or CBS Person of Interest? Well if it goes as they see it millions more jobs gone. Very believable concepts but what gave me the most hope was the small mention of rewriting software more simply. I have watched 40 years of faster and faster to end up slow. No more patches, updates, or called whatever modifications to fix something designed wrong. Redesign it right and out the old, I just said ten times as much as he and she on "The solution".


  55. Excel / Pat – Email me at stjeanluc@gmail and I'll send you an Excel export. I use Google Docs but it does export to anything you want.

    I update them manually in Google Docs (option prices) but in Excel you can import TOS option prices which makes it much easier.


  56. XRT/Den – Here's my problem with them – they are just too random in their holdings:

    Stock Weight Amount
    Conn's 1.67% $10,027,017
    Lithia Motors INC. Class A 1.51% $9,074,822
    Dillard's INC. Class A 1.45% $8,706,535
    Big Lots 1.41% $8,502,409
    Murphy Usa 1.40% $8,420,234
    Office Depot 1.40% $8,410,837
    Asbury Automotive Group 1.39% $8,398,434
    Group 1 Automotive 1.38% $8,311,194
    Susser Holdings 1.38% $8,325,001
    Supervalu 1.35% $8,116,044
    Tuesday Morning 1.33% $8,004,611
    Nutrisystem 1.32% $7,946,838
    Rentacenter 1.30% $7,832,511
    Sonic Automotive INC. Class A 1.29% $7,743,416
    Family Dollar Stores 1.28% $7,711,348
    Zumiez 1.28% $7,720,963
    Best Buy CO. 1.28% $7,712,966
    Cst Brands 1.28% $7,684,325
    Finish Line INC. Class A 1.27% $7,639,850
    Foot Locker 1.26% $7,605,860

    There's 10 more pages of them!  Maybe we find something more focused like XLY (Consumer Discretionary – but they have a lot of MoMos).  

    LOL – Girl on CNBC making a case that insider trading is good for the average investor – SHAMELESS!!!  

    MRVL/Albo – Yes but I believe that's baked in at this point. 

    USO/Scott – So annoying to trade during the last week – you just have to have conviction.  That's why I went Oct on SCO, don't want to worry over it day by day. 

    HPQ/Burr – I do like them long-term.  I keep thinking they will make a move on 3D printing.  


  57. Strangles / Gerryf – These strangles are very margin intensive and you really need PM margin for that type of trades. Margin used with the current spreads is probably over $100K of PM. We had to double down once in the last 6 months so factor in around $250K of available margin. Just a guess though. You can try to replicate the spreads in your trading software and see how much margin it shows.


  58. Phil – Not sure what you meant by this.  Thanks.

    EZCH/Albo – I thought they were cracking down on those guys?


  59. Excel / Stj,

    Email sent. Thank you again.


  60. EZCH/Albo – LOL!  My bad, I was thinking of EZPW!  


  61. WHEW ! 8-)


  62. Not very impressive market action with the Fed tomorrow.  I can't imagine what they could say other than maybe a pause on tightening. 

    Oil stuck at $106.25 and we'll have to see how many barrels they got rid of.  

    Dollar back up at 80.71, gold $1,271, silver $19.72, copper $3.06, nat gas $4.71, gasoline $3.86.  

    Failure points on the Futures were 16,750, 1,935, 3,780 and 1,175.

    SCTY up 20% now – should have jumped at up only 7% earlier!  

    LQMT 0.27!  Man I love that stock!  


  63. No stick into the close – RUT down to 1,170, but that's still up 0.75% for the day.  Nas flat, S&P, NYSE and Dow up 0.2%.  Still no 11,000 on NYSE (10,882) and that was our sticking point last time so it will be a big deal tomorrow.  

    RUT (/TF) still a fun short below 1,170 as it hit our 1,175 on the button and failed.  


  64. SPY volume dead again.  


  65. Even though HPQ is requesting universities to develop their new concept, ie. out there vs Musk will change the world with magic words, I would bet HPQ better chances of finishing. FWIW


  66. Don't forget Elon on CNBC this afternoon.


  67. Magic words = fairy dust on CNBC the Center of Nothing But Crap!


  68. LOL Shadow!


  69. Jbur

    Broke my rule turned on CNBC MUSK is in spaceX now. Jack of all trades master of none!


  70. Wrong one of the best collecting more money than anyone should have.


  71. Shadow:  Maybe we should speculate along with the master prestidigitator…. he never fails to pull something out of his hat.


  72. Any tech gurus out there in PSW?  Looking to put in a multi-monitor desk-top computer configuration.  Currently use a laptop with one additional monitor but find myself constantly juggling screens.  Any thoughts on the best way to set this up would be appreciated.


  73. JBur:  Not his hat.


  74. ~~options_alpha

    I have 6 monitors, built my own from a mother board, the only good way to get a lot of monitors with one keyboard and mouse. Flawless since 2011, still faster than anything sold by the usual and not that expensive. I can help. 


  75. options_alpha,

    An easy way I have found is to use the SIIG DisplayLink adapter.  You just plug it into a USB port and attach a monitor to it.  On my laptop that runs TradeStation I have one internal monitor, one external via VGA, and three monitors via DisplayLink adapters.  Works like a charm, but at least my laptop is topping out there: When I add a forth DisplayLink for a total of 6 monitors it starts be unstable.


  76. Zero: Just what I was thinking.  :)


  77. Has Musk said anything worth anything about tsla?


  78. jabobeast

    As is his way he says nothing about anything, vague is his way and the money is stupid.


  79. OH he did say if he can reduce battery cost he could maybe produce a lower priced car.


  80. I am patiently waiting to short Solar City as it gets upgrades.  Do people understand that the company will not make money for years and the bulk of their premise is people will renew their leases 20-30 years later at the same price and it is funded almost like a ponzi scheme.  Even a GW plant is not going to justify the valuation.  Hope it gets to the mid 70's quickly.


  81. what was the draw ( /CL ) anyone ?
     


  82. Phil- Story in the Philadelphia Inquirer today that is right up your political alley. This ine blows my mind and shows just how far the Republicans will go in their attempts to weaken the current administration. House Republicans have somehow gotten the SNA (School Nutrition Association) to team up with them to repeal efforts to serve healthier lunches to our children by giving schools the chance to opt out of the standards they were a big part of instituting! The SNA represents the 55,000 workers who prepare and serve the lunches and surprisingly are heavily funded by the food industry. They are finding that it is more expensive to feed our kids less calories, fat and salt along with adding whole grains. So, of course the Republicans want to cut the costs whether it is good for kids or not, and a bonus for them is to weaken a regulation supported by the White House? Somehow they have found a way to pressure the SNA, who played a large part in developing these standards along with 200 other health and nutrition non-profits, into going along! The article hints that the Republicans applied monetary and lobbying pressure, and says that 19 past presidents of the SNA are asking them to reconsider! 

    It is simply amazing that nothing, including the health of children, is above being used as a political tool by these heartless bastards controlling the house! I thought you might find this interesting. It got me to thinking what would happen if newspapers disappear, who will be left to expose and talk about this kind of outrageous behavior?

    http://www.philly.com/philly/education/20140617_National_fight_looms_over_opting_out_of_school_lunches.html 


  83. /CL just dropped 50 points on the break // sitting at $106
    If it breaks I'm naked short June into inventory

    API anyone ?


  84. my bad – i forgot about the current rollover date.
    /CLN4 $106.53


  85. /CLQ4 $106


  86. Thanks Shadow and Wappler.  I think I like to try Wapplers approach first since it sounds more cost efficient if I could use this laptop and add monitors.  I also use TradeStation so interested in how that works.  Wappler can you email me at tapinxx@gmail.com so I can ask some additional questions without filling the board.


  87. From Bloomberg, Jun 17, 2014, 12:00:01 PM

    Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) — Lawrence Ho, son of Macau gambling tycoon Stanley Ho, talks about his plans to invest more than $5 billion in Japan if Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd. receives permission to build a casino there as he sees constraints on development at home.
    Ho, co-chairman at Melco Crown, spoke with Bloomberg’s Aika Nanao in Tokyo on Saturday. (Source: Bloomberg)

    Japan will start debate today on a
    bill to legalize casinos, paving the way for its passage before
    the end of the year.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1uzXrB9

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  88. From Bloomberg, Jun 17, 2014, 7:01:00 PM

    U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron
    and his Chinese counterpart, Li Keqiang, agreed to work together
    to spur growth in their two countries after talks in London.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1yeyoIp

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  89. From Bloomberg, Jun 17, 2014, 5:01:25 PM

    U.S. stocks rose, extending a two-day advance in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, as smaller
    companies rallied before the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy
    decision tomorrow.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1jvMKdz

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  90. From Bloomberg, Jun 17, 2014, 5:37:59 PM


    Doug Beal, a former mechanic specializing in air-conditioning and fire detection, says he lost about $60,000 after rolling over money from the company’s plan into an individual retirement account. Photographer: Jayms Ramirez/Bloomberg

    Kathleen Tarr says AT&T Inc. (T) employees looked to her as “their de facto 401(k) expert.” Visiting their homes and offices, she advised them on their retirement plans as they called up balances on computer screens.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1pbi1Gt

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  91. From Bloomberg, Jun 17, 2014, 4:48:03 PM

    SunTrust Banks Inc. (STI) agreed to pay
    $968 million to resolve federal and state claims that a unit
    misrepresented the quality of mortgages the bank originated and
    deceived homeowners on loans it serviced.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1yf6Pik

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  92. From Bloomberg, Jun 17, 2014, 11:36:21 AM

    Republicans have a different take on climate.                                                        

    The Obama administration is getting a good deal of mileage out of the president’s commencement speech Saturday at the University of California, Irvine, during which he compared deniers of climate science in Congress to those who might have argued, during the race to the moon 50 years ago, that the nation’s celestial obsession was made of cheese.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1lvzUSi

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  93. Watch this video at http://bloom.bg/1lOWwMH

    Amazon’s Smartphone: Four Cameras, 3D Screen

    June 17 (Bloomberg) — Amazon is set to unveil a new smartphone tomorrow. Bloomberg Businessweek’s Brad Stone and Bloomberg’s Cory Johnson report on Bloomberg Television’s “Bloomberg West.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  94. Watch this video at http://bloom.bg/UJtzYB

    After the $17B Valuation: What’s Next for Uber?

    June 17 (Bloomberg) — Evercore Partners’ Ken Sena, Brand Networks CEO Jamie Tedford, HubSpot’s Mike Volpe and HourlyNerd’s Dan Slagen discuss Uber’s valuation and its potential for growth with Trish Regan on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  95. Watch this video at http://bloom.bg/1lLeSOv

    Rise of the Bionic Man: High-Tech Hand for Amputees

    June 17 (Bloomberg) –- Touch Bionics makes the i-Limb, a multi-articulating bionic hand that is commercially available and can sync to a smartphone. In the series “Wiring the World,” Bloomberg takes a look at how this bionic hand has changed one amputee’s life. Video by Josh Block, Justin Beach. (Correction to identify maker of i-Limb.) (Source: Bloomberg)

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  96. Watch this video at http://bloom.bg/1c6SQTf

    Rome Mayor Bans Cars Around Colosseum, Roman Forum

    Aug. 6 (Bloomberg) — Rome Mayor Ignazio Marino has banned cars and motor scooters from the boulevard that cuts through the city’s ancient forums toward the Colosseum to create an archaeological park.
    Francine Lacqua reports on Bloomberg Television’s “The Pulse.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  97. Watch this video at http://bloom.bg/1lQtc8x

    Barrick Discovers Hidden Gold Treasures in Nevada

    June 18 (Bloomberg) — Rob Krcmarov, senior vice president for global exploration at Barrick Gold Corp., talks with Bloomberg’s Liezel Hill about the company’s 15.6 million-ounce Goldrush gold deposit in Nevada.
    Even after a century and a half of exploration and mining, Barrick Gold and Newmont Mining Corp. say there’s plenty of hidden gold still to uncover in Nevada. (Source: Bloomberg)

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  98. From Bloomberg, Jun 17, 2014, 2:00:11 PM

    Maersk Line, Mediterranean Shipping Co. and CMA CGM SA in June last year proposed setting up a network comprising 255 vessels on 29 loops. Photographer: Freya Ingrid Morales/Bloomberg

    China blocked the formation of a
    global alliance by the world’s three biggest shipping lines in a
    surprise move that ignored Western approval of the plan and sent
    A.P. Moeller-Maersk A/S (MAERSKB) shares tumbling the most in two years.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1jvRH6n

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  99. From Bloomberg, Jun 17, 2014, 5:01:00 PM

    Wataru Yoshizaki, chief robot officer of Asratec Corp., poses with the company’s humanoid robot ‘Asra C1′ in Tokyo. Photographer: Tomohiro Ohsumi/Bloomberg

    Billionaire Masayoshi Son wants to
    create Android for robots.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1jwTiIX

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  100. From Bloomberg, Jun 6, 2014, 3:32:53 AM

    June 9 (Bloomberg) –- Here’s a robot that tries everything possible to make you feel happy. The developer of the robot, Bruno Maisonnier, founder and CEO of Aldebaran says when you are feeling sad, the robot Pepper will try connecting you with people you like. Pepper’s goal is to make you feel better. The emotion-reading robot will go on sale in February 2015. Softbank aims to sell millions of these robots. (Source: Bloomberg)

    SoftBank Corp. (9984)’s emotion-reading robot Pepper is a result of time billionaire Chairman Masayoshi Son spent as a child watching the TV show “Astro Boy.”

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1p9s0NH

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  101. From Bloomberg, Jun 17, 2014, 7:01:00 PM

    A five-year-long link between crude
    oil and gold has come apart as the economic recovery boosts
    energy consumption and lowers the metal’s appeal as a haven,
    encouraging investors to buy oil and sell gold.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1yfUBG0

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  102. From Bloomberg, Jun 17, 2014, 6:49:40 PM

    Elon Musk, chief executive officer of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX), watches a video at the unveiling of the Manned Dragon V2 Space Taxi in Hawthorne, California, on May 29, 2014. Photographer: Patrick T. Fallon/Bloomberg

    A U.S. Senate proposal tied to the
    NASA spending bill may thwart efforts by Elon Musk’s space
    venture while aiding Boeing Co. (BA), the government’s No. 2
    contractor, a trade group president said today.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1yfj7ay

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  103. From Bloomberg, Jun 13, 2014, 3:00:00 AM

    Tesla Motors Inc. (TSLA), the electric-car
    maker led by billionaire Elon Musk, signed an agreement with
    real-estate developer Soho China Ltd. (410) to set up more battery-charging outlets in the world’s largest auto market.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/UyrM8G

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  104. From Bloomberg, Jun 17, 2014, 4:09:53 AM


    Tourists take photographs in front of the Ruins of St. Paul’s Cathedral in Macau, China. Photographer: Brent Lewin/Bloomberg

    Macau will reduce the maximum number
    of days that Chinese passport holders with transit visas can
    stay in the city to five from seven, in an attempt to prevent
    them from abusing the law. Casino shares dropped.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1i3kyUp

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  105. From Bloomberg, Jun 17, 2014, 12:00:01 PM

    An employee inspecting jewelry at a newly opened MoneyMax outlet, locally owned by jewelry firm Soo Kee Group at the Woodlands SMRT train station in Singapore. Photograph: Roslan Rahman via AFP/Getty Images

    Yeah Lee Ching recalls when a lady walked into her pawnshop in Singapore and pledged a $10,000 diamond-studded gold Rolex watch to bankroll casino spending. She never came back for her jewelry.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1pdd9Tn

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  106. From Bloomberg, Jun 17, 2014, 8:00:46 PM

    Toyota Motor Corp. vehicles bound for shipment sit parked at a port in Yokohama, Kanagawa Prefecture, Japan. Photographer: Kiyoshi Ota/Bloomberg

    Japan’s exports fell in May for the first time in 15 months, adding to challenges for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe as he seeks to steer the economy through a forecast contraction this quarter after a sales-tax increase.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1jxceHx

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  107. From Bloomberg, Jun 17, 2014, 6:00:22 PM


    June 17 (Bloomberg) — U.S. President Barack Obama speaks about the capture of a Libyan militant who is suspected of playing a central role in the deadly attack on a U.S. outpost in Benghazi in 2012.
    Obama, speaking at an event in Pittsburgh, also discusses U.S. manufacturing and technology development. (Source: Bloomberg)

    U.S. special operations forces captured a Libyan militant who played a central role in the deadly attack on a U.S. outpost in Benghazi, Libya, in a secret raid near the city, U.S. officials said.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1r1EUgO

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  108. From Bloomberg, Jun 17, 2014, 2:56:45 PM

    Iraqis volunteering to fight alongside the Iraqi security forces against Jihadist militants leave a recruitment center aboard military trucks in Baghdad. Photographer: Ahmad al-Rubaye/AFP/Getty Images

    President Barack Obama will meet with the four top congressional leaders tomorrow on U.S. options in Iraq, as he ponders whether to launch airstrikes against Islamic militants.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1ozkbE5

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  109. From Bloomberg, Jun 17, 2014, 7:01:00 PM

    Antibiotics now rank among the most
    counterfeited medicines in the world, feeding a global epidemic
    of drug-resistant superbugs.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1kLCOfT

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  110. From Bloomberg, Jun 17, 2014, 12:00:00 AM


    Henry Kravis, KKR’s co-founder, is once again shaking up Wall Street, transforming his buyout firm into one that also makes loans, underwrites stock and rescues companies in distress. Photograph: Miller Mobley/Bloomberg Markets

    Henry Kravis, the king of rough-and-tumble leveraged buyouts, picked up a phone at his home in Palm Beach, Florida, and called the chief executive officer of one of Spain’s biggest producers of building materials.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1pbhX9M

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  111. From Bloomberg, Jun 17, 2014, 8:59:38 AM

    June 12 (Bloomberg) — Bank of England Governor Mark Carney speaks about the U.K. economy, central bank policy and regulation of financial markets.
    Carney, speaking at the Mansion House in London, said the BOE could raise interest rates from a record low earlier than investors expect as he expressed concern that mounting debt related to the housing market could undermine stability. (Source: Bloomberg)

    Thirty-five years ago this month, a
    U.K. central banker by the name of Peter Cooke was worrying
    about a surge in lending to developing countries.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1paRnxH

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  112. From Bloomberg, Jun 17, 2014, 5:30:45 AM


    German unemployment unexpectedly increased in May for the first time in six months and business confidence as measured by the Ifo institute declined. Photographer: Krisztian Bocsi/Bloomberg

    German investor confidence unexpectedly fell for a sixth month in June even after the European Central Bank announced a new round of stimulus aimed at preventing deflation and rekindling growth in the euro area.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1uzZ9Tb

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  113. From Bloomberg, Jun 17, 2014, 5:33:39 PM


    Shoulda used some put options.

    As I may have mentioned over and over and over and over and over again, the first rule of insider trading is just don’t insider trade, but the second rule is: If you have inside information about an upcoming merger, don’t buy short-dated out-of-the-money call options on the target. The SEC will get you! What I haven’t emphasized, however, is that derivatives can be replicated in various ways, so you can use other options to get similar results without trading in the Forbidden Option.1 This would not technically violate the second rule of insider trading, though I cannot wholeheartedly recommend it since it would violate the first.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1igVGsy

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  114. From Bloomberg, Jun 17, 2014, 1:52:44 PM

    Senator Carl Levin: aggrieved.

    A good chunk of today’s very silly Senate subcommittee hearing on “Conflicts of Interest, Investor Loss of Confidence, and High Speed Trading in U.S. Stock Markets” was taken up by:

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1pdzWhV

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  115. options_alpha,

    Check your email.  Thanks!


  116. From Bloomberg, Jun 17, 2014, 4:01:14 PM

    In his own way, he was right.

    U.S. Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia has just slyly pointed out how crazy U.S. gun laws are. Scalia’s typically scathing dissent in the court’s 5-4 decision this week prohibiting straw buyers from purchasing guns, along with the majority’s suspiciously reasonable opinion, exposes Congress’s legislative failure.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1oBW87j

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  117. From Bloomberg, Jun 18, 2014, 4:04:28 AM

    Good morning. Here’s my take on some of the stories driving the debate in politics, finance and social issues across Asia today:

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1pHGlDQ

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  118. Watch this video at http://bloom.bg/UJKv17

    A More Hawkish Fed Could Derail Growth: Bowers

    June 18 (Bloomberg) — Northern Trust Asset Management’s Wayne Bowers previews this week’s two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee. He speaks with Angie Lau on Bloomberg Television’s “First Up.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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  119. From Bloomberg, Jun 17, 2014, 7:00:01 PM


    June 17 (Bloomberg) — Siemens AG Chief Executive Officer Joe Kaeser speaks in Paris about the joint offer with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. for Alstom SA’s energy operations, countering a bid from General Electric Co. (Excerpts. Source: Bloomberg)

    Amid the raft of multi-billion-dollar mergers and acquisitions this year, a new player has
    entered negotiations: politicians.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1yfVSwT

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  120. From Bloomberg, Jun 18, 2014, 3:40:52 AM

    Sweden’s central bank will cut
    interest rates again this year as deflation takes hold in the
    largest Nordic economy, the National Institute of Economic
    Research
    said.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1pg2MxW

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  121. From Bloomberg, Jun 17, 2014, 6:01:00 PM


    Oeystein Olsen, governor of Norway’s central bank. Olsen warned last year he stands ready to cut rates should krone strength hamper the bank’s policy goals. Photographer: Kristian Helgesen/Bloomberg

    Norway’s central bank will probably
    keep interest rates unchanged and delay tightening to late next
    year as borrowing costs abroad decline and an investment boom in
    western Europe’s biggest crude producer fades.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1yfHrc7

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  122. From Bloomberg, Jun 18, 2014, 4:44:56 AM


    June 16 (Bloomberg) — Former Bank of England policy maker Adam Posen, now president of the
    Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, discusses BOE Governor Mark Carney’s warning last week that interest rates might start to rise earlier than anticipated.
    He speaks with Olivia Sterns and Guy Johnson on Bloomberg Television’s “The Pulse.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Bank of England policy makers said a rate increase this year may be more likely than investors anticipate as the debate on the timing of the first policy tightening in seven years heats up.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1pg8U9r

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  123. From Bloomberg, Jun 18, 2014, 4:28:51 AM


    A customer pushes a cart of lumber at a Home Depot Inc. store in Peoria, Illinois. Consumer prices in the world’s largest economy rose 0.4 percent in May from April, when they gained 0.3 percent. The pace exceeded the 0.2 percent rate predicted by economists. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the gain was the largest in almost three years. Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg

    (Corrects date of unemployment data in sixth paragraph.)

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1yfSxxN

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  124. From Bloomberg, Jun 18, 2014, 3:37:00 AM

    British Prime Minister David Cameron, right, and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang leave number 10 Downing Street after a meeting in London, on June 17, 2014. The pound will become the fifth currency to trade directly against the yuan in Shanghai, joining the Australian and New Zealand dollars, the Japanese yen and the U.S. dollar. Photographer: Stefan Rousseau/AFP/Getty Images

    China will allow the yuan to be
    exchanged directly for British pounds from tomorrow in Shanghai
    as the world’s second-largest economy promotes the use of its
    currency in global trade and finance.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/T6qPDb

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  125. From Bloomberg, Jun 18, 2014, 4:58:52 AM


    View of the New Poly Plaza where the headquarters of China Investment Corporation (CIC) is located in Beijing, China. Photograph: Imaginechina via AP Images

    Mismanagement at China Investment Corp., the nation’s $575 billion sovereign wealth fund, led to overseas investment losses that could widen, according to the National Audit Office.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1oDzw6G

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  126. From Bloomberg, Jun 18, 2014, 12:01:00 AM

    Publicly listed marijuana companies are luring investors eager to profit from the frenzy over legal pot. One man who’s won big is penny-stock veteran David Weiner. Photograph: Andrew B. Myers/Bloomberg Markets

    The Milken Institute likes to keep
    up with the newest new thing, so it was no surprise that its
    April conference in Los Angeles included a panel on investing in
    marijuana.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1pfrH4Q

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  127. From Bloomberg, Jun 18, 2014, 4:00:32 AM

    Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president. Putin and Poroshenko talked last night a day after Russia cut gas supplies to the Ukraine over unpaid bills and demanded advance payments from its former Soviet Union ally. Photographer: Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg

    The Russian and Ukrainian presidents
    discussed a possible cease-fire for southeastern Ukraine hours
    after a pipeline fire blamed by the government in Kiev on
    sabotage threatened natural gas flows to Europe.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1pf39Jh

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  128. From Bloomberg, Jun 17, 2014, 5:41:43 PM

    Kurdish Peshmerga forces fighting militants from Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in Kirkuk, Iraq, on June 17, 2014. Photograh: Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

    Islamist militants in Iraq fought with the army in a town near Baghdad and with Kurds in the oil-rich province of Kirkuk, as the U.S. weighed options to stem an offensive that threatens to fracture the country.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1n8qYOv

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  129. From Bloomberg, Jun 18, 2014, 4:42:25 AM

    The Micex Index (INDEXCF) gained for the first
    time in three days, led by power companies, as prospects grew
    for a cease-fire in Ukraine after discussions between President
    Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1ijDU7U

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  130. From Bloomberg, Jun 18, 2014, 12:01:03 AM

    Dwane Holloman plans to dedicate his summer to an American rite of passage: a teen job. The 17-year-old will operate amusement park rides at Hersheypark in Pennsylvania, near his home.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1pftQxi

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  131. From Bloomberg, Jun 18, 2014, 4:40:25 AM

    Thailand kept its key interest rate
    unchanged for a second straight meeting as the economy showed
    signs of a recovery after a military coup ended months of
    political unrest.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1oE3iIj

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  132. From Bloomberg, Jun 18, 2014, 3:23:09 AM


    Lars Rohde, governor of Denmark’s central bank. As governor of a central bank that defends the krone’s peg to the euro, Rohde has virtually no scope within monetary policy to address imbalances in the housing market. Source: ATP Group via Bloomberg

    Six years after Denmark’s most
    recent housing crash, the governor of the central bank says the
    mortgage market is far from balanced.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1pfrZZl

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  133. From Bloomberg, Jun 18, 2014, 2:12:59 AM


    Graeme Wheeler, governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Photographer: Mark Coote/Bloomberg

    Reserve Bank of New Zealand
    Governor Graeme Wheeler’s largest monetary tightening among
    major developed countries is being blunted by Australian-owned
    mortgage lenders.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1yeAJDt

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  134. From Bloomberg, Jun 18, 2014, 12:50:25 AM

    India’s one-year interest-rate swaps
    rose to a two-week high on concern below-normal rainfall and a
    decline in the rupee will fuel inflation, reducing scope for
    monetary easing.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1pfBDLu

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  135. From Bloomberg, Jun 18, 2014, 5:05:26 AM


    Forbes says she still sees complacency over the risk that financial turmoil will spread beyond a single country, even with Europe’s struggle to curb its sovereign-debt crisis. Photographer: Kelvin Ma/Bloomberg

    Kristin Forbes, a former White House
    adviser who’s set to join the Bank of England’s rate-setting
    committee, may give clues today about her leanings as officials
    move toward the first policy tightening in seven years.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1kLC0Yt

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  136. From Bloomberg, Jun 18, 2014, 12:00:00 AM

    Janet Yellen, chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

    Here’s what to look for when the Federal Open Market Committee releases its policy statement at 2 p.m. today in Washington along with new economic projections. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen plans to give a press conference at 2:30 p.m.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1pft2Zn

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  137. From Bloomberg, Jun 17, 2014, 1:01:23 PM

    The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

    Nothing demonstrates more vividly the mess Iraq has become than the prospect of Iran and the U.S. discussing whether they can cooperate to fix it.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1i8e47b

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  138. The ECB displays growing concerns of forex benchmarks

    04:40 AM ET

    • The European Central Bank has expressed its concerns regarding foreign currency benchmarks, stating that relying on one set of data to compile a benchmark, cannot guarantee its reliability.
    • The ECB’s concerns come after the EU proposed a law to regulate market benchmarks after banks were fined for fixing the Libor rate. Regulators are also now probing related accusations regarding the currency markets.


  139. H&M looks to the online marketplace

    03:44 AM ET · HMRZF

    • H&M (HMRZF) is planning to add up to 10 new online markets and a shoe range after a solid performance in its second quarter.
    • “We have had a good second quarter with a strong increase in both sales and profits and increased market share,” says CEO Karl-Johan Persson.
    • Net profit in Q2 rose 25% to $876M, from $693M in the same period of 2013. Sales including value-added tax totaled $6.7B.
    • Hennes & Mauritz is planning to open 375 new stores worldwide this year.


  140. Mt Gox receives U.S. bankruptcy protection

    03:26 AM ET · BITCN

    • Mt Gox, the failed Tokyo-based bitcoin exchange, is now able to file Chapter 15 bankruptcy proceedings in the U.S. after receiving court approval.
    • In February, Mt Gox said it suffered a hacking attack resulting in a loss of 850k bitcoins (BITCN, BTCS) – around $500M in current prices. After the website shutdown, the company filed for bankruptcy to protect its U.S. assets.
    • The company is now awaiting approval for a settlement and the sale of its business. In March, Mt Gox found 200k of its lost bitcoins, and is now trying to reach a deal to split up the coins with U.S. customers, in addition to a 16.5% stake after Mt. Gox is sold.


  141. Amazon in talks with European carriers over smartphone

    02:19 AM ET · AMZN

    • After reporting yesterday that AT&T will be the exclusive provider in the U.S. for its new smartphone, Amazon (AMZN) is now in talks to determine who will be its provider in Europe.
    • The company has spoken to O2 (TEF) and Vodafone (VOD) in the U.K. If it chooses the latter, it would extend the two’s relationship, as Vodafone provides the data plans shipped with the Kindle and the company’s e-readers.
    • Amazon is set to reveal the smartphone rumored to feature a 3D display at an event in Seattle later today.


  142. S&P downgrades Argentina to CCC-

    01:43 AM ET · ARGT

    • Argentina’s long-term foreign currency rating of CCC+ has been lowered by Standard & Poor’s to CCC-, due to an increased risk of default on the country’s foreign currency debt.
    • Earlier this week, alarm bells were sounded when President Cristina Fernandez said the country cannot pay the $1.5B it owes by the end of the month, following a U.S. Supreme Court ruling.
    • However, S&P affirmed the country’s short-term foreign currency rating at C, saying that court ruling was not likely to affect the government’s service on local currency debt.
    • ETFs: ARGT


  143. Wednesday’s economic calendar

    12:00 AM ET


  144. Coal miner Foresight Energy raises $350M in IPO

    Yesterday, 07:17 PM ET · FELP

    • Foresight Energy (FELP) bets there’s gold in coal, as the Illinois miner raises $350M in its IPO despite threats against the industry from regulators and competition from natural gas.
    • Foresight believes it is well positioned to supply coal because its Illinois mines have thick, contiguous seams and can be mined for one-third the cost of Appalachian mines.
    • The company controls three of the four most productive coal mines in the U.S., and demand for Illinois Basin coal generally is expected to increase to 185M tons in 2020 from 102M tons last year.
    • FELP today priced 17.5M shares at $20 each, valuing the company at $2.6B; shares are expected to start trading tomorrow.
    • ETF: KOL


  145. FBR, Nomura name potential chip industry M&A targets

    Yesterday, 06:58 PM ET · ARMH

    • The consolidation wave that has hit the semi industry could soon yield tax inversion deals for foreign firms similar to deals seen in the healthcare industry, says FBR’s Christopher Rolland.
    • Inversion deals allow U.S. companies buying foreign firms to see lower tax rates if less than 80% of the equity in the new company is owned by legacy U.S. shareholders, and the post-merger company has substantial foreign ops.
    • Rolland thinks ARM (ARMH), NXP (NXPI), Mellanox (MLNX), and Taiwan’s MediaTek could be among the foreign companies targeted by U.S. chipmakers. Worth noting: Mellanox sells more than just chips, and ARM’s business model depends on the company maintaining a neutral status within the industry.
    • Meanwhile, Nomura’s Romit Shah names 15 potential M&A candidates, and divides them into 3 groups: “Sub-scale companies” with high margins and strong IP; “strategic companies” with compelling product lines; and “undervalued companies.”
    • Shah’s “sub-scale companies:” IDTI, ISIL, MTSI, MCRL, SMTC, SLAB.
    • “Strategic companies:” ALTR, AMCC, ATML, CAVM, MPWR, BRCM ($22.5B market cap could make it tough to digest).
    • “Undervalued companies:” DIOD, IRF, MSCC.


  146. Enbridge still faces hurdles before Northern Gateway oil begins to flow

    Yesterday, 06:56 PM ET · ENB

    • Enbridge (ENB) gained approval for its Northern Gateway pipeline, but now the real work begins, since it first must nail down oil shipping contracts that meet the 200-plus conditions attached to the project.
    • ENB needs firm transportation contracts covering at least 60% of the pipeline’s capacity prior to starting construction, and some analysts say the many competing export projects and the sharp growth of oil shipments by rail could make shoring up commercial support for the pipeline difficult, and even delay construction into next decade.
    • If built, Northern Gateway would serve as an important link between the Alberta oil sands deposits and energy-thirsty Asian markets, but If TransCanada’s (TRP) Keystone XL and Energy East projects are approved, “Gateway gets shelved for a very, very long time, because [ENB] won’t be able to fill it,” says one industry analyst.
    • Suncor (SU), Cenovus (CVE), Cnooc (CEO), Total (TOT) and others have signed so-called precedent agreements to ship oil on the pipeline, but legal experts say those agreements aren’t binding, giving producers wiggle room to choose alternatives.


  147. Molycorp bonds surge as peer Lynas gets equity funding

    Yesterday, 06:18 PM ET · MCP

    • Molycorp (MCP) bonds rose to their highest level in more than a month after peer Lynas (LYSCF, LYSDY) sold shares, and “distressed investors looked at Lynas and said if they can raise money, Molycorp can too.”
    • MCP, which has lost money for nine straight quarters and may run out of cash in another seven months or so if operations don’t improve, may benefit from new investments being made into the rare earth industry, a Loomis Sayles analyst says.
    • With fresh capital, investors see MCP’s Mountain Pass facility in California becoming fully operational later this year that would help the company grow.


  148. Yahoo expands Tumblr’s ad reach; Alibaba keeps weighing on shares

    Yesterday, 06:12 PM ET · YHOO

    • Tumblr’s (YHOO -1.1%) Sponsored Post ads are set to begin appearing on Yahoo News, Yahoo Beauty, and other properties in the Web giant’s empire.
    • The ads will be offered via Yahoo’s recently-launched Gemini ad marketplace, which integrates mobile search and native ad inventory. At the same time, Yahoo plans to phase out standard mobile banner ads, notorious for their low prices and accidental clicks.
    • The effort is part of a push by Yahoo to shore up slumping display ad sales by embracing native ad formats. Healthy uptake for the company’s Stream ads contributed to Yahoo’s better-than-expected Q1 display numbers.
    • Shares added to yesterday’s losses amid continued worries about Alibaba’s (ABABA) Q1. In addition to top-line concerns – calendar Q1 rev. growth was 39% Y/Y, down from the 66% reported (by Yahoo) for calendar Q4 – some are on edge over a 600 bps Y/Y drop in Alibaba’s op. margin to 45.3%. Alibaba attributed the decline to higher Web/mobile marketing spend.
    • MKM is reiterating a Buy and $45 PT for Yahoo. The firm states the Alibaba numbers only affect its Yahoo valuation framework by $0.50/share, and thinks shares could see “another leg” higher thanks to Alibaba’s roadshow and post-IPO valuation.
    • MKM chalks up Alibaba’s near-term slowdown to mobile transition issues (i.e. a lower mobile take rate) that can be handled in time. It thinks mobile take rate is for now ~1/3 of PC levels.


  149. SunEdison +1.5% AH on deal to own half of Silver Ridge Power

    Yesterday, 05:19 PM ET · SUNE

    • SunEdison (SUNE) is buying AES‘ 50% stake in Silver Ridge Power (SRP) for an undisclosed sum. The deal gives SunEdison 50% ownership of 336MW of operating solar projects, and 40% ownership of a 183MW CA solar project to be finished in 2016. (PR)
    • The remaining 50% stake in SRP will continue to be owned by Riverstone Holdings. But Riverstone and SunEdison expect SRP to contribute a 266MW operating CA solar project in its possession to SunEdison’s TerraForm Power (TERP) YieldCo unit.
    • SunEdison also expects to buy Riverstone’s share of SRP’s interest in the 183MW project, and to contribute a 40% interest in the project to TerraForm in 2016.
    • Earlier: Solar stocks jump following SolarCity, Yingli news


  150. La-Z-Boy -9.8% as weather hurts sales

    Yesterday, 05:09 PM ET · LZB

    • La-Z-Boy (LZB) -9.8% AH as investors aren’t accepting the often-used weather excuse to explain FQ4 results which include the company’s first decline in same-store in three-and-a-half years.
    • Although overall sales rose 2.1% to $353M, same-store sales for the furniture galleries store network fell 0.9% for the quarter after an 11.2% increase in the year-ago period.
    • LZB says sales were adversely impacted by weather issues beginning in FQ3, which affected the written order rate, and extending into FQ4.


  151. Adobe +6.8% AH on strong CC adds, guidance hike

    Yesterday, 04:47 PM ET · ADBE

    • Adobe (ADBE) added 464K Creative Cloud subs in FQ2, up from 405K in FQ1 and 402K in FQ4; the base is now at 2.308M. The company now expects to end FY14 (ends in November) with 3.3M CC subs, up from a prior 3M.
    • Marketing Cloud (ad tech) revenue +23% Y/Y in FQ2 to $283M, after growing 24% in FQ1. Adobe still expects at least 20% Marketing Cloud rev. growth and 30% bookings growth in FY14. LiveCycle/conferencing revenue -17% to $47.4M.
    • CC annualized recurring revenue (ARR) rose by $208M in FQ2 to $1.195B, and Document Services (Acrobat) ARR by $19M to $183M. Adobe now expects to end FY14 with total Digital Media ARR of $1.925B, up from a prior $1.85B.
    • With the cloud transition pushing out revenue recognition, Adobe expects FQ3 revenue of $975M-$1.025B and EPS of $0.22-$0.28 vs. a consensus of $1.02B and $0.27. Investors don’t mind.
    • 44% of FQ2 revenue was from subscriptions, and 53% was recurring. The deferred revenue balance rose by $48M Q/Q to $929M.
    • R&D spend +2% Y/Y, sales/marketing +6%. $166M was spent on buybacks.
    • FQ2 results, PR, datasheet, prepared remarks


  152. Stocks drift higher ahead of tomorrow’s Fed decision

    Yesterday, 04:20 PM ET

    • Stocks edged higher in choppy trading, as investors shrugged off mildly disappointing economic reports on inflation and housing.
    • Financials were the strongest of the SEC’s 10 sectors, as BofA and Morgan Stanley each gained at least 2%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 outperformed the broader market, a sign that investors were willing to accept more risk; energy shares lagged as crude oil slumped 0.6% to $106.28 after a string of gains.
    • Participation continues below average, with less than 600M shares changing hands at the NYSE.
    • Tomorrow, the Fed is widely expected to announce another $10B reduction in its bond-buying program to $35B/month.
    • Treasury prices fell after the consumer price index jumped by the most in nearly two years, sending the 10-year Treasury yield up 5.5 bps on the day at 2.653%, its highest level since mid May on a closing basis.


  153. Goldman a contrarian buy?

    Yesterday, 03:57 PM ET · GS

    • The average rating on Goldman Sachs (GS +1.4%) of 3.21 (where a sell-side Buy gets a 5, a Hold gets a 3, and a Sell gets a 1), the lowest since Bloomberg started tracking the data in 2006. The 3.21 rating puts Goldman 68th among 83 financial stocks in the S&P 500. For the entire S&P 500, Goldman is ranked 440th.
    • This comes, of course, as the decline in trading revenue at investment banks picks up steam, with Goldman more reliant on this activity than its competitors. “What drives activity in our business is volatility.,” said Goldman president Gary Cohn at an investor conference recently. “If markets never move or don’t move, our clients really don’t need to transact.”
    • Priced in? Goldman is down 4.9% YTD vs. Morgan Stanley’s 3.8% gain and JPMorgan’s 1.8% drop. On a year-over-year basis, Goldman is ahead just 2.7% vs. Morgan Stanley +24.1%, JPMorgan +6.6%, and the XLF +15%.
    • Previously: Green shoots at Goldman


  154. Enthusiasm builds for Keurig Green Mountain

    Yesterday, 02:49 PM ET · GMCR

    • Shares of Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR +5.2%) race to new all-time highs on a momentum swing.
    • On the fundamental side of the equation, analysts continue to edge long-term earnings estimates higher on Keurig with the firm’s partnerships with Subway and Coca-Cola looking promising.
    • GMCR traded at over $128 a share before settling back.


  155. Quantum Fuel +22% on order for back-of-cab natural gas storage system

    Yesterday, 02:38 PM ET · QTWW

    • Quantum Fuel Systems (QTWW +22%) powers higher on news it received an order from Dillon Transport, a specialist in temperature-sensitive transportation, for its fully-integrated Back-of-Cab Fuel Storage System, which includes QTWW’s Q-Lite compressed natural gas storage tanks.


  156. YouTube music service to launch in summer; holdouts to be blocked

    Yesterday, 02:24 PM ET · GOOG

    • Labels representing 95% of the music industry have signed up for YouTube’s (GOOG -0.2%) long-rumored subscription music service, says exec Robert Kyncl. However, the holdouts (largely indie labels) will see their content blocked from YouTube, ostensibly to preserve a good user experience for subscribers.
    • YouTube will start internally testing the service in the coming days, before doing a full launch later this summer.
    • Though the subscription music market is intensely competitive – Spotify dominates, and Apple is about to join the fray – YouTube’s huge reach (1B+ monthly users), together with its ability to pair ad-free music videos and audio-only streaming, give it a good chance to fare better than Google’s not-too-popular All Access music service (launched last year).
    • Impala, a trade group representing indie labels, is complaining to the EU about Google’s move. Meanwhile, one label chief says his problem with YouTube wasn’t its subscription licensing terms, but free tier enhancements he fears will lower subscriptions for services such as Spotify.


  157. Bloomberg: GE refining jobs, nuclear plans in Alstom deal

    Yesterday, 02:13 PM ET · GE

    • GE (GE +0.2%) is in talks with the French government to refine guarantees on jobs, planned investments and access to nuclear technology to distinguish its $17B bid for Alstom’s (ALSMY) energy assets from Siemens’ (SIEGY) offer, Bloomberg reports.
    • In trying to meet France’s demands for a better offer, GE is said to promise an independent audit to ensure it honors a pledge to create 1,000 industrial jobs in France as part of a deal, and may be willing to make commitments for future spending on France-based operations.
    • While GE will not increase the cash part of its offer, it appears willing to continue discussions about several areas, including ensuring that French interests retain access to nuclear technology and a possible GE-Alstom partnership in railroad signaling.
    • Meanwhile, other reports say the French government is willing to take a stake of 10% or more in Alstom alongside Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHVYF) as part of the Japanese firm’s joint offer with Siemens.


  158. EA, Activision, Take-Two rally following positive NPD data

    Yesterday, 01:59 PM ET · UBSFY

    • Thanks to new game launches, U.S. retail physical game sales (just a subset of total game sales) rose 57% Y/Y in May to $274M, says NPD. That represents a big turnaround from April’s 10% drop, and March’s 27% decline.
    • Ubisoft’s (UBSFY) Watch Dogs, which sold 4M units worldwide in its first week, was the top-selling title. After holding the top spot the last two months, Electronic Arts’ (EA +2.9%) Titanfall fell to #8.
    • Activision’s (ATVI +1.7%) The Amazing Spider-Man 2 was #6, up two spots from April, and Call of Duty: Ghosts was #10 (down from #2). Take-Two’s (TTWO +3.6%) NBA 2K14 was #7 (down from #3).
    • EA and Activision are making fresh 52-week highs. Take-Two isn’t far removed from its 52-week high of $22.41.


  159. Facebook launches would-be Snapchat rival

    Yesterday, 01:37 PM ET · FB

    • Like Snapchat, Facebook’s (FB +0.5%) new Slingshot app allows users to quickly share ephemeral photos/videos with friends. However, recipients can’t access the content before replying with a photo/video of their own.
    • Also: Whereas Snapchat emphasizes sharing with one friend (or perhaps a small group of them), Slingshot encourages sharing with larger groups. A “select all” option (not found on Snapchat) is included.
    • “We don’t see this as a messaging app … It’s more along lines of a feed or stream of content because of that pay-to-play mechanic,” says designer Joey Flynn. He adds the app is focused on growing content creation rather than consumption.
    • Slingshot is the second app from Facebook’s Creative Labs unit. The first, Facebook’s Paper reader app, received great reviews but has seen limited uptake. Likewise, several other recent Facebook products have only garnered niche followings.
    • The app arrives after Facebook reportedly made a failed $3B+ bid to acquire Snapchat, prior to turning its sights on WhatsApp. Facebook’s Poke app, its first attempt to take on Snapchat, was shuttered in May.
    • Previous: Zuck wants Facebook to have “a pipeline of experiences”


  160. Chicago Bridge & Iron slips on “creative accounting” allegation

    Yesterday, 01:36 PM ET · CBI

    • “Management has misled shareholders and analysts into believing that nothing is wrong with its Shaw Group acquisition or business,” writes Prescience Point, arguing Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI -2%) used “creative acquisition accounting” to create a $1.56B loss reserve.
    • CB&I, says Prescience, is struggling with certain Shaw contracts that could prove to be severely loss-making, and is using said reserve to mask their impacts.
    • “We believe CB&I will be forced into a goodwill write-down or financial restatement, either of which would trigger debt default, heightening the risk of liquidity crisis or dilutive equity raise.” The stock, says Prescience, is worth about $37 per share, about 50% below the current level.


  161. Solar stocks jump following SolarCity, Yingli news

    Yesterday, 12:55 PM ET · FSLR

    • SolarCity has announced plans to build a 1GW+ module plant in NY, and to follow it up with one or more much larger facilities. Notably, the company declares (in spite of a current capacity glut) it needs to build the plants to meet long-term solar demand.
    • Yingli missed Q1 estimates, but reported a healthy gross margin (thanks in part to strong Japanese sales) and reiterated full-year guidance.
    • Also: Goldman is out with a bullish note, predicting rooftop solar installations will post a 40% CAGR through 2016.
    • Gainers: FSLR +2.8%. SPWR +4.2%. SUNE +4.4%. JASO +8.2%. SOL +7.5%. JKS +6.5%. CSIQ +7.4%. DQ +4.2%. ASTI +3.9%. HSOL +6.9%. TSL +5.6%. ENPH +3.5%. CSUN +3.7%. RGSE +11.3% (announced a new Hawaiian deal).
    • SolarCity’s plans are a positive for equipment vendors GT Advanced (GTAT +1.5%) and Veeco (VECO +1.6%), each of which has seen its solar orders plummet thanks to the capacity glut.
    • Solar ETFs: KWT, TAN
    • Yesterday: Solar stocks rally; Deutsche upbeat on YieldCo potential


  162. Phil- are there any fundamental reasons to not go long on the British pound/USD pair? Thanks


  163. Good morning!

    Nothing very exciting going on – just waiting on the Fed today.    /TF still a good short below 1,170 (right there) with /ES confirming below 1,935 and /YM already below 16,750 – same lines we were watching yesterday.  

    Dollar 80.64, oil $106.22 (off the $106 line again this morning), gold $1,271, silver $19.72, copper $3.06 is failing, nat gas $4.74 and gasoline $3.09 as we head for the holiday.  

    Pound/Vedan – Currencies are always crazy and if the US signals any sort of tightening, the Dollar will fly up and crush the Pound (who are, so far, leading the pack in tightening talk due to their housing bubble).  Even if I wanted to go long on the Pound, I'd wait to see $1.34 support or a break over $1.36, not in-between:

    Multi-monitor/Options – I use external LCD displays that plug into the USB ports when I travel but that's "just" two monitors on my laptop plus I use my IPad as another screen.  I find that's OK for on the road but I'm always happy to come home to my command center.  On my far left, I have an IMac running TOS charts and on the far right I have an HPQ TouchSmart, which is the one I do the Webinars on, and that runs more TOS charts.  I do that to offload the major drain on processing from my main computer which has on Apple 30" Cinema display in the middle running 3 chrome sessions with about 8 tabs each and my left Dell 21" runs TOS mostly for looking up prices plus my Email and a chrome session with 8 tabs and my right Dell 21" has another chrome session with 8 more tabs.  I love having the one mouse to control, essentially 40 screens worth of stuff and I haven't had the desire to add another level of monitors – mostly because I'm not a TA guy.  Most people with lots of screens obsess over the squiggly lines.  Since I am actually reading things, I prefer to just tab to what  I want to look-up and focus on that.  

    SCTY/Rustle – It's a brilliant model because they are not supposed to make any money this decade — so how can they disappoint people.  Essentially taking a page out of AMZN's playbook – the more they lose – the better they must be doing!  

    Oil/Wombat – API Report says big draw:

    Crude inventories in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer, decreased by 5.7 million barrels in the week ended June 13, said a person familiar with data from the American Petroleum Institute. The industry group in Washington collects information on a voluntary basis from operators of refineries, bulk terminals and pipelines.

    U.S. crude supplies rose to 399.4 million through April 25, the highest level since the EIA, the Energy Department’s statistical arm, started publishing weekly data in 1982.

    Gasoline stockpiles nationwide shrank by 48,000 barrels, according to the API. A decline of 550,000 barrels is forecast in the Bloomberg survey of eight analysts.

    Exports of Basrah Light crude, the country’s main grade, may reach about 2.8 million barrels a day next month, according to a preliminary loading plan obtained by Bloomberg on June 16. That’s 11 percent more than this year’s average and would be close to matching a three-decade high in February.

    SNA/Craigs – I guess I'm just past disgusted at this point….

    Speaking of oil, we're getting a cross back below $106.75 on /CLN4 so that's playable.  /CLNQ confirms below $106.25. 


  164. Notice, in the news above, that Japan is moving full speed ahead with robots.  We are getting miles behind them and their kids (what few are left) are very into robotics in school too

    Japanese Robots: Kids' Summer School for Robotics & Engineering

    What are your kids doing this summer that will make your country more competitive in 20 years?  Oh yeah, and, in a typical act of the kind of Socialist crap that is often pulled by sneaky pretend capitalists like Japan – the camps are FREE – paid for by the overreaching Government and sponsors.  Thank goodness we protect our kids from Government education here!  

    At least we're still practicing our WarBots in California:

    Big Chart really hard to call. 


  165. Phil- Are you telling us that you would be shorting the August oil contracts below 106.25 even though indications are that inventories will be showing a large draw (or large hiding of inventory) today? I just want to confirm you're last comment.


  166. I'd short this month's (July) contract at $106.75 as there should still be a bit of selling pressure but nickels and dimes today ahead of inventory and, of course, by 10 am they should be heading up (and into the 9am NYMEX open) so watch the line closely.