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Whipsaw Wednesday – GDP and the Fed, Oh My!

SPY 5 MINUTEYesterday went as expected.

As I told you in the morning post, the "rally" was nothing more than a prop job to allow a full day of selling right into the close.  Now that the markets are closed, the S&P is being propped back up – 0.3% as of 7:30 am.  May the farce be with you! 

Of course, this morning, there may actually be something to get excited about as the 2nd Quarter GDP Report will come out at 8:30 and economorons are expecting a full reversal of Q1s 2.9% dive with a 2.9% gain forecast for Q2.  

I don't know what numbers they are looking at (assuming they even bother – from their usual performance, they would be better off using darts) but I'm not seeing a big resurgance in Consumer Spending, which is 70% of the US economy.  I don't see how our Trade numbers improved, although we did import less oil (to create artificial shortages and drive up prices for the consumers).  

Business Investment seems to be up a bit and Inventories are a real wild card where a build will be a huge plus – even though, to me, it sort of indicates they are not selling anything and it's piling up on the shelf.  

This is the fantasy chart for the GDP that is making the rounds this morning.  Notice it's from the Commerce Department (aka MiniTru) and, like our Chinese Masters – they are able to make those numbers dance when they want to and, believe me, they REALLY WANT TO this Q as two down quarters in a row = the "R" word.  

So we'll see if the GDP can get the rally back on track and, if not, it will be up to the Fed this afternoon (2pm) to pump up the jam and get the party going again with their statement.  It's very possible the Fed timed their announcement on the afternoon of the GDP release BECAUSE they know they'll have to make a save in the afternoon.  Also, it's no coincidence that Treasury is pushing $44Bn of 2-year and 7-year notes between GDP and the Fed – just in time to get a good price on those rates!  

We gave you the SQQQ trade last Friday, that's a really nice market hedge and easily available at a net $400 credit or better to buy $20,000 worth of upside protection.  

We are already "Cashy and Cautious" in our Member Portfolios but still leaning bullish in our positions although that will change quickly if one of the major indexes joins the Russell (our old main hedge) below the 50 DMA line.  

On July 8th, our play (right in the morning post, which you can have Emailed to you every morning by subscribing here) was to add TZA Aug $14 calls at 0.66.  TZA has since shot up to $15.69 and those calls are now $1.67, which is a very nice 153% gain on a 4% drop in the Russell – THAT is how you hedge!  

RUT WEEKLYIn our Live Member Chat Room on July 3rd, when the Russell was spiking higher, our trade ideas to cover a large portfolio with TZA (ultra-short Russell ETF) was to sell 100 TZA 2016 $12 puts for $3 ($30,000 credit) and use that money to buy 100 2016 $13/20 bull call spreads for $1.20 ($12,000) for a net $18,000 credit.  As of yesterday's close, on a 5% drop we predicted in the Russell from that high of 1,200 – the spread is now 0.30 or + $3,000 for a $21,000 gain so far.  

That's enough to protect a $500,000 porfolio from a 5% correction and there is still plenty of upside should we head lower.  I don't point these out to brag (you can reveiw all of our past trades anytime right here), I do it so that, when I tell you about the opportunity in SQQQ, you can see how a similar trade recently worked.  

Of course we already flipped BULLISH on the Russell (with Futures trades) at the 1,130 line and now we're looking to see if they can retake 1,145 and prove it's more than a bounce.  As I said, that 200-day moving average MUST HOLD and no one is going to be too impressed until the Russell is over the 50 DMA at 1,158.  If GDP is a miss, however, none of that is likely to happen and down we go again. 

8:30 Update:  WOW!  So much for adding a hedge.  Q2 GDP is up 4.1%, not 2.9% – an amazing flip-flop that defies all logic.  They also revised the 1st quarter to "only" be down 2.1% as well as revising prior years, to now give us the appearance of steady growth.   

We are going to ignore the fact that -2.1% + 4.1% averages to 1% and pretend (in order to be like the masses) that it's all about the one 4.1% gain since -2.1% was so 3 months ago.  As we thought, increasing inventories added 1.66% to the GDP, giving us the huge beat.  That means we can go long on those /TF (Russell) Futures over the 1,145 line and also /YM (Dow) Futures over 15,700 to tilt more bullish pre-market.  

This is why we take our profits after 5% moves in our indexes and look for fresh horse to ride for the next leg.  The new SQQQ trade will take far less damage than the old TZA trade would have on this move. 

Now the worry shifts back to the Fed because 4% growth is now "too hot" and the Fed wants a Goldilocks number around 3.5% so now it is possible that the move forward their timing on rate increases to cool off the rising economy before the inflation monster comes out of the cave.  

We are going to take advantage of this rally to add a few hedges ahead of the Fed this afternoon.  We had a nice short yesterday on the Nikkei off the 15,700 line in our Live Trading Webinar that netted $350 per contract in the afternoon and today we should get a crack at the 15,750 line (/NKD) for another nice short opportunity.  Japan had HORRIFIC Industrial Output numbers this morning – down 3.3% on a slump in consumer spending – only the strong Dollar and GDP expectations kept them up overnight – now it's time to "sell on the news."

So enjoy this little rally while it lasts – I very much doubt it will take us to new highs and, if not, then it's just a pause in the larger correction but we are going to watch our levels and not get too bearish because it seems there's always somehting to prop these markets back up – for now.  

 


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  1. Oil Lines

    R3 – 103.24
    R2 – 102.53
    R1 – 101.78
    PP – 101.07
    S1 – 100.32
    S2 – 99.61
    S3 – 98.86


  2. 4.0% gdp if I'm reading this correctly


  3. Phil did you mean /NKD at 15700 or /YM at 16900 in your morning post? 


  4. Wow, 4.0% indeed… That's some jump from last quarter! But then again, jobs and numbers from the Phila Fed and Empire State were better than expected so maybe there was some underlying current. We need to look at the internals though. I wonder what the Fed will say this afternoon.


  5. ~~ The acceleration in personal income primarily reflected an upturn
    in personal dividend income and a smaller decrease in farm proprietors' income that were partly offset
    by a deceleration in wages and salaries

    So looks like Mitt Romney got more dividends this quarter


  6. Phil-I am wondering if this GDP number, which as you said, defies all logic means that the Fed will be moved to announce an increase in interest rates even sooner than anyone thought which could finally put the brakes on this rally ? Any thoughts ?


  7. Ok, I know I'm just getting back into trading, but I see /YM close at 16845, now 16915.

     

    No real chance to get in /TF at 1145, spiked right up.  Still go long at 1147?


  8. ADP a bit weaker than expected though so maybe jobs will disappoint on Friday. Not sure what the correlation is between ADP and NFP. Don't think that it's completely linear… 


  9. Phil, you like long TF over 1145?


  10. It seems that some goods are falling off the truck…

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-29/chinese-fake-trade-data-remains-bit-mystery-despite-clean-efforts

    Or maybe get stored in some government warehouses. Maybe we'll see a flood of Cabbage Patch Dolls on eBay in the coming years!


  11. Good Morning.

           TASER International, Inc. (NASDAQ: TASR) reports Q2 EPS of $0.07 versus the estimated $0.06, beating by $0.01. EPS were Down 13% from the same quarter last year. Revenue came in at $37.20M versus the estimated $37.52M. Sales were Up 16% year over year.

    Not much of a pre-market move…    


  12. Getting more expensive for Putin to borrow money in order to finance his little wars:

    http://qz.com/242157/how-to-tell-if-the-new-sanctions-on-russia-are-working/

    Since the beginning of the year, the benchmark yield for a Russian 10-year bond has risen 157 basis points to 9.11%. Once again, you see it rise as the Ukrainian crisis escalates and recede as it calms. This is a big increase in the basic cost of doing business for the Russian government. Right now, other states are experiencing record-low borrowing costs—even debt-troubled countries like Spain and Italy have 10-year bond yields around 2.54%.

    That probably doesn't help the economy either!


  13. GILD at 93.98.  Love this guy.


  14. Good morning!  

    Revisions added a bit to GDP and then there were inventories but consumer spending, corporate spending and Government spending all picked up so not a bad number by any stretch.  Good point by Pwright on incomes but that's no surprise. 

    You are right Craigs, I was looking at /NKD at the time but I've already flipped short on them at 15,750 with tight stops above.

    Fed/Craigs – Well they pretty much ignored the last GDP number so I'd expect them to do the same with this one.  Still, they certainly can't make a recklessly doveish statement as it would be completely inappropriate now so, if I were them, I'd go for vagueness.  

    Not good if the RUT (/TF) can't get over 1,150.  What can be better news than this to send them back towards 1,200?  

    /TF/Burr – I wouldn't chase.  Dow (/YM) safer at 16,910 with a stop below 16,900 (-$50) but the fact that they aren't going higher should be a major concern for the bulls.  To some extent, the Dollar is hurting at 81.55 but it should be strong with more GDP and now we have sanction news that is likely to hurt the Euro (see yesterday's trade chart with Russia) and Japan's numbers were certainly weak for the Yen.  So the Dollar rising will put a lid on things for the moment and it makes all trading very rough this morning.


  15. TASR starting to move now …up 7%


  16. Indeed, dollar at levels not seen since last November… Next resistance line is around 82. I guess the race to the bottom between the yen, euro and dollar has to have a loser and the dollar is it right now.


  17. ADP/StJ – Very poor correlation to jobs.

    /TF/Bdon – See above, now that the momentum has died, it's more tempting as a short but too risky for that call.  

    Off the truck/StJ – First of all, LOL.  Second of all, not too far-fetched as Modi has had $1.5Bn worth of coal stolen from him

    TASR/Decade – We weren't expecting a great quarter as they are in between products.  I'm very pleased with this report.  

    Net sales were $37.2 million in the quarter, an increase of $5.0 million, or 15.5%, compared to second quarter 2013 net sales of $32.2 million. The increase was driven by total law enforcement weapon handle sales which increased $2.6 million in the second quarter compared to the prior year. AXON® cameras, EVIDENCE.com andTASER® CAM™ HD recorders also contributed to the net sales increase in the second quarter. International sales were $5.0 million in the quarter which is essentially flat compared to the prior year. 

    Gross margin in the second quarter of 2014 was 62.4%, compared to 61.4% in the same period last year. The improvement in gross margin in the second quarter of 2014 was driven by the 15.5% increase in net sales which resulted in better leverage of overhead expenses, increased sales prices and lower EVIDENCE.com depreciation costs. 

    Research and development (R&D) expenses of $3.5 million for the second quarter of 2014 increased $1.5 million when compared to the second quarter of 2013 driven by additional personnel expense related to EVIDENCE.com & Video segment product development initiatives. The Company continues to expect increased expenses in R&D through 2014 as it launches the development of next generation and adjacent cloud software and mobile products, as well as adds enhanced and new functionality to EVIDENCE.com.

    The Company completed $19.6 million (3.3%) of stock repurchases during the quarter, purchasing approximately 1.5 million shares for an average cost of $13.16 per share.


  18. Have we eradicated inflation for good?

    http://qz.com/241890/the-complete-history-of-german-bond-yields-from-napoleon-to-angela-merkel/

    Any given day in the global bond market can be fairly snooze-worthy. Bond yields tick up by a few basis points, and down by a few basis points. Ho-hum. That’s the case today in the market for German government bonds (known as bunds). Yields on the 10-year bund declined by about four basis points, or 0.04 percentage points, to 1.12%. In other words, low.

    Of course, when countries compete against each other for low wages, how can there be inflation pressure? When we keep the minimum wage at the poverty level, how can we inflate? The middle class everywhere is being squeezed so can't afford to spend more. And the top 0.1% can't pick up the slack for the other 6Bn people.


  19. The TASR trade from yesterday filled for me at -1.43 credit.  I'll be adding more today


  20. IRBT/Phil- I apologize if you have already said something about this one, but as I said a few days ago the short term memory just ain't what it used to be. So, do you think at just north of $33 this one is ready for another look? I cashed out for a nice little gain back when you liquidated the LTP and like you I still like the long term picture, especially if, God Forbid, the Republicans take the Senate or an even bigger, God Forbid, the presidency in 2016 which would likely trigger more defense spending and perhaps orders for robot soldiers of one kind or another.


  21. ASML – woohoo! (since I missed the TWTR trade)


  22. Tough to decide what to do on that TWTR earnings play. It seems that the gap is being faded but not really clear. I closed my position though and moved along! That play didn't work so might as well look for something else.


  23. STJ: me too just took the profit on TWTR this morning. 


  24. 1.12%/StJ – How many scenarios are there in which a guy buying a Bund today will be saying in 5-10 years "good thing I locked in that 1.12% interest rate!"???  

    IRBT/Craigs – I love them down here.  Last trade ideas was last week:

    Submitted on 2014/07/24 at 10:03 am

    IRBT/DC – That one is our Stock of the Century but not that impressive of a bounce:

    $42 to $36 is 14.2% so close enough to 15% ($35.70) that I'd rather use the even line and that means we want to see $1.20 weak bounce ($37.20) before we'd even consider jumping back in and really it's already too late for a weak bounce to be impressive (day 2), so now we want to see a strong bounce at $38.40 to give us a renewed bullish signal.  Notice how $38.40 is about where they topped out before earnings – that gives us even more reason to wait for that line. 

    Keep in mind that, with option trades, it really doesn't matter if we get in at $36 or $38.40 because the trade we'll set up will use leverage and pay us 300% on cash – AS LONG AS IRBT DOESN'T GO DOWN.  So there's no need to run around trying to find a perfect bottom (or top for shorting), the key is to be sure enough of where the bottom and top should be to make a long-term commitment.  

    For instance, we can sell the IRBT March $29 puts for $2 and use that money to buy the $33/37 bull call spread for $2.60 and that's net .10 on the $4 spread that will profit $3,900% on cash if IRBT is over $37.  But it's not the $37 we're really worried about – it's whether they will hold $29 – that's where our risk is.  Being SURE they are done going down is far more valuable to us than missing a small move up, as we can easily adjust our brackets or we could pick a different strike at $38.40 and maybe we'll only make 500% back on cash instead of 3,900% but NOT LOSING is more valuable than winning a bigger percentage.  

    So NOW, if we are getting a nice bounce that holds for a day or two, it will be a good time to execute.  

    Meanwhile, nothing impressive going on with the indexes but Dollar hit 81.58 and that's got /NKD 15,760 and the risk there is the Fed does get a bit hawkish and the Dollar makes a run at 82, which makes Japan happy (the exporters, anyway).  I think, without a policy change, 81.60 should be the top for the Dollar for now. 

    Oil failed at $1.50 with Inventories at 10:30.  API showed a net 4Mb draw so expectations are for at least 2Mb draw on EIA:

    The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, said late Tuesday that its own data for the same week showed a 4.4-million-barrel decline in crude stocks, according to industry sources. The group also said that gasoline supplies rose by 60,000 barrels and distillate stocks gained by about 500,000 barrels, according to the sources.

    The way I'd play oil this morning is hope for a run-up for bad reasons around the 10:30 report and hopefully we find a nice short there.  Otherwise, $101.50 is a bit low to add a short position and my heart certainly wouldn't be in a long one.  

    ASML/Ivan – Very nice.  Great call by Yodi last week:

    On ASML the BCS should be Jan16 75/87.5 @ 7.40 start with 4 or 5x

    Hmm, charts not updating for some reason.  

    TWTR/StJ – "Sometimes the only winning move is not to play."


  25. Oil/Phil – If the draw comes back more than 2mb, we would expect a spike in /CL correct?


  26. Ricbah / Oil;   /RB is showing a strong point now so perhaps is related with your expectation in oil report.


  27. ABX reporting tonight. NEM reported last night and they showed lower cost of extraction:

    Gold and copper AISC was $1,063 per ounce and $3.69 per pound, respectively, compared with $1,283 per ounce and $8.72 per pound, respectively, in the prior year quarter. Gold and copper CAS was $744 per ounce and $2.53 per pound, respectively, compared with $895 per ounce and $7.59 per pound, respectively, in the second quarter of 2013. Average realized gold and copper price was $1,283 per ounce and $3.01 per pound, respectively, compared with $1,386 per ounce and $2.69 per pound, respectively, in the prior year quarter.     

    It seems that copper prices are not sustainable right now as they are below the AISC costs for NEM. Higher costs last year were mainly due to their Indonesia project which is now online.


  28. Phil,

    Any interest in Eaton (ETN) 2016 57.5P/55P. Thanks as always


  29. Bunds / Phil – A Japan scenario comes to mind… Pharm has been saying that for a while now. We are all Japan. When even Spain can sell 10 year bonds at 2.5%, it seems that most people are thinking that way. Not saying that they are right though. The alternative is to buy Russian 10 year bonds that yield 9% but how many people will think "good move to buy these Russian bonds" 10 year from now!

    In any case, not playing with bonds!


  30. ASML for those who followed the play now sell 1/2 Sep14 92.5 call for 3.10 or better


  31. yodi re: ASML: thanks, will do.  Why is it up so much this am?

    Thanks


  32. OMG !  Another sign that the market's getting overly exuberant. (Thanks Alan).   X up 18%.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-steel-posts-smaller-2q-211452126.html


  33.  

    Major Economic Reports:

    6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – Down 2.2% for week

    7:15 am CT – ADP Employment Report

    7:30 am CT – GDP

    9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

    12:00 pm CT – 7-year Note Auction Results

    1:00 pm CT – FOMC Meeting Announcement

     

    Notable Earnings:    

    Wednesday – 7/30:

    Before Market:  AMT, D, GRMN, GT, HES, HUM, LO, SODA, SO, S, VLO

    After Market:  AKAM, ALL, HIG, KRFTMET, NE, OI, ROVI, WDC, WFM, YELP

     

    Thursday – 7/31:

    Before Market: APABUD, BZH, CHTR, CI, CME, CL, DDD,  DLPH, EXC, GG, K, MA, MCK, MOS, NI, OXY, TMUS, TWC, VRX, VIA, XOM

    After Market:  AFFX, EXPE, FLR, LNKD, SPWR, SWN, TSLA, WYNN


  34. ivan re: ASML: nice! thanks


  35. CCJ is tomorrow before market


  36. Phil – Do you think that the GDP numbers are false and will be revised down later?


  37. All… Apologies. I am on vacation. Will be back Aug 11. Going to NYC to see a few shows! And The Daily Show…  peace.


  38. pwright72

    ASML up 10% still can't lay my finger on it but shoot first and ask questions later


  39. Oil/Ricbah – I think 2Mb is the least they need to draw to keep prices from falling.  What it will take for a spike is questionable as under 4Mb draw will disappoint some.  That's why it's not a play – too rough to call but, no matter what happens – I know I feel good about shorting at $102 or higher.  

    NEM/StJ – Keep in mind they don't specialize in copper, it's more of a by-product of their gold mining (10% of revenues) so you can't assume their costs are industry norm.  

    ETN/Jasu – Oh YAWN!  What a nice, boring company they are.  However, I just put up an article yesterday re. power consumption dropping sharply and and they missed and lowered guidance, which made for a very exciting 10% drop.  Still, they are expecting $4.60, down from $4.75 so a 10% drop does seem like an over-reaction and 15x $4.60 is $69 so not unattractive at this level.  The problem is, there's no growth to these guys and they have gargantuan debts (accrued by the $12Bn purchase of Cooper, who are now 60% of their revenues) and are still in a huge transition with Cooper, which now doesn't seem to be going as well as it seemed.  I wouldn't catch the falling knife but, if the downgrade police can't break $65 by next week, then it might be fun to sell some puts to get a toe in.  

    Bunds/StJ – Yes but doesn't it show that people fear their bank so much that they'd rather put their money in bonds that pay no interest.  I don't see how consumers can appear so bullish when they clearly don't trust the economy to grow or the banks to last over the next decade.  

    X/Albo – Wow!  "Only" losing $18M – why not a double?   blush  

    Certainly X has learned from the master:

    GDP/Diamond – They are always false but this Q they did the revisions that legitimize the changes until the next time they need to goose the figures.  

    CCJ/Burr – Not much to be excited about yet. 


  40. Forgot that SODA was reporting this morning and they are up 8%… 


  41. DRAW of 3.7Mb, same as API so long at $101.50 a good play with tight stops.  


  42. EIA Petroleum Inventories:

    • Crude -3.7M barrels vs. -1.4M expected, -4M last week.
    • Gasoline +0.4M barrels vs. +1.3M expected, +3.4M last week.
    • Distillates +0.8M barrels vs. +1.5M expected, +1.6M last week.
    • Futures +0.51% to $101.48

  43. Well…that wasn't what I expected to happen.  /CL down to 101


  44. yodi no doubt :)   Ivan found a link above, looks like they had a tech breakthrough re: extreme UV for lithography usage


  45. SODA/StJ – Mediocre report can't keep them down but $30 was kind of low:

    • SodaStream (NASDAQ:SODAnotes soda maker volume remains under pressure in the U.S. and that the company is having to work through excess holiday season inventory.
    • Full-year guidance from SodaStream is for revenue growth of 5% over 2013 revenue of $562.7M. The expected level falls short of the consensus mark of $626M. The outlook for EBITDA growth is lowered to 5% from 11%.
    • Shares of SODA are shaking off the soft guidance to move up 5.5% in premarket trading.

    Oil behaving very strangely.  I haven't got a clue what this is about although there are 780M barrels in the front 4 months so maybe the selling pressure is stronger than we thought or maybe it's just a blow-off spike down before moving up.  In either case, long at $101 with tight stops is now a percentage play on /CL.

    Click for
    Chart
    Current Session Prior Day Opt's
    Open High Low Last Time Set Chg Vol Set Op Int
    Sep'14 101.03 101.64 100.86 101.42 10:24
    Jul 30


    -

    0.45 55022 100.97 307538 Call Put
    Oct'14 99.79 100.30 99.60 100.08 10:24
    Jul 30


    -

    0.35 16833 99.73 182400 Call Put
    Nov'14 98.76 99.40 98.76 99.23 10:24
    Jul 30


    -

    0.29 6449 98.94 76897 Call Put
    Dec'14 98.24 98.67 97.98 98.51 10:24
    Jul 30


    -

    0.27 9137 98.24 211356 Call Put

  46. Phil,

    Thanks re: ETN, will wait for the downgrade parade to enter the eventual trade at better prices.


  47. pwright72

    Where is the link???


  48. yodi: ~~http://www.benzinga.com/news/14/07/4741467/asml-up-11-on-key-technology-breakthrough


  49. Earnings tonight:

    AKAM
    Consensus Estimate – 0.55
    Whisper Number – 0.58
    Average Move – 12.0%
    Priced into Options – 8.2%

    WDC
    Consensus Estimate – 1.74
    Whisper Number – 1.80
    Average Move – 6.0%
    Priced into Options – 4.6%

    WFM
    Consensus Estimate – 0.39
    Whisper Number – 0.40
    Average Move – 7.7%
    Priced into Options – 8.9%

    YELP
    Consensus Estimate – (0.03)
    Whisper Number – (0.03)
    Average Move – 14.8%
    Priced into Options – 12%

    EW bullish on AKAM, neutral on the others!


  50. Dang.  PNRA up 5%.  The PNRA -125 +140/155 trade from yesterday is up 307% off a credit of -0.91.  Nice Philly Phil!


  51. Nope on oil, straight down through $101 and on to $100.70 (weak bounce off $100 with $101.40 strong, which just failed).  At this point, it's just a spectator sport unless they hit $100 for another bounce play or back over $101, which should provide some support for a bet they hit $101.40 again.  


  52. RGR -8% off bad report.  

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-30/sturm-ruger-tumbles-as-waning-gun-demand-hurts-profit.html?cmpid=yhoo

    The short Jan15 45.5P's only down 16% though.  


  53. Maybe someone could explain why NFLX would be up when they strike a deal with AT&T to pay them to get better streaming service.  This now is another cost to NFLX with no added gain since they are paying to keep members happy there that they already have.  They have gone up on every deal they struck so far though less and less each time now.  Would think this would be a negative for them.


  54. Thanks to whoever that exercised me on GILD at a net under $ 80 in July. I knew that I would not mind owning them there before earnings. I love it when something I did not actually plan works out.


  55. PNRA/Burr – Yes, per my rant this morning – I don't understand why people want to make silly, risky earnings plays when nice, sensible long-term plays can make 300% too.  

    Woops, all going to hell now.  Something must have happened.  

    Earnings/StJ – WFM for sure.  They have come down nicely.  

    WFM 2016 $35 puts can be sold for $3.60 and that can be used to buy the $35/45 bull call spread for $3.85 for net .25 on the $10 spread that's $3.15 in the money to start.  Good enough to put 5 in the LTP.  


  56. This morning I bought 10 CNP Sep14 25/27 call stupid spreads and sold 10 CNP Sep14 P25 to finance them @ $0.05 credit. They will be profitable if CNP holds $25 by Sep14 OPEX. 

    Yesterday, there was very large unusual call buying at the Sep14 C27 strike in CNP. Open interest at that strike was only 216 and this morning open interest is at 14,445 indicating new positions opened (and they were bought).

    The posting of this actual trade is for educational purposes only …


  57. NFLX/Rustle – Because the deal isn't costing as much as was feared.  It's like when the banks get a fine and go up – at least now we know the cost.   

    RGR/Diamond – NOW maybe they will get interesting.   

    July 29th, 2014 at 11:53 am 

    RGR/Diamond – I'm not convinced of the value up here.  There was a lot of gun buying by people who thought the laws would change so they stocked up.  Nothing really changed and now the market floods with extra used guns and demand for new guns wanes a bit.  On the whole, I simply don't see the point in following all the regs and changing laws that make these stocks so bouncy.  I thought $80 was too high but $56 is not too low, maybe if they get back to low $40s they are a bargain again.  

    GILD/Randers – Very nice.  Nothing like a timely assignment.  

    Gold back below $1,300.  Oil back at the $101 line – held $100.75. 

    VIX jumping to 13.80.  

    XOM gave up silly gains with earnings tomorrow:


  58. Phil – Re: RGR … do you have any particular play in mind?


  59. Diamond/CNP,

    where do you see this activity? more importantly how do you know that these were bought, i mean bought to open instead of sell to open.

    Thanks


  60. RGR/Diamond – Yes, no play.  Next week, we'll see where they are.  

    Oil went nowhere and back below $101 by a hair.  Dollar 81.58, TLT 115.11, VIX 13.71.  

    Nikkei still at 15,750, /YM tested 16,750, /ES hit 1,957, /NQ 3,960 and /TF held 1,140 – so that one is making progress, at least.  


  61. Phil –  What are you're active futures open positions right now?  Long /TF?


  62. /NKD-Phil Do you still think we have a short here at the 15750 line or is this done now too? Caught some profit from 15755 down to 15725 and wondering if it is still playable when it bounces back up? It would seem that nothing has changed since your early call and maybe even more reasons to drop. 


  63. arghhhhh – been posting all alone on the tuesday thread.


  64. wombat, were you starting to get a little paranoid on that thread?  I bet you thought we had all put you on ignore, lol.


  65. pat_swap – I use several trading platforms. On my TradeMonster platform (which is the best one for looking at options) they have a tab section for “LIVEACTION” which has many real time ways of looking at “unusual activity.”

    Yesterday, I saw CNP there and was monitoring it. Later Jon Najarian (DrJ) reported on CBOETV (click on his 07/29/14 report) that WYNN and CNP had very large unusual out-of-the-money call buying (he has proprietary software to ascertain that they were indeed bought), so he went long on both of these as well. 

    This morning, since the open interest was confirmed as new positions opened (not always the case), I put on the spread for a credit and got filled. If CNP did not pull back in the morning bull market action, then the spread would have moved away from me, and I would have moved on. I figured since CNP is considered a defensive stock going long would be just another way to hedge a market correction. If not … rawhide! I hope that this helps.


  66. jr /tues
    i think after an hour my last words were "Bueller ?"


  67. For educational purposes, would you please compare your suggested WFM spread from above to a slightly different approach: Sell 2016 33 put 2.75 and buy 2016 37/45 bcs 2.75. Is there a major disadvantage in this alternative approach? TIA


  68. Futures/Burr – None active, but I hardly ever do during market hours as I'm too busy and I also can't play what I call (front-running).  Watching and waiting ahead of the Fed.  

    /NKD/Craigs – I do as long as the Dollar stays under 81.60 but it does look like it wants to break up and the Fed is a huge wildcard, so very risky.   

    Europe closing down half a point.  Were they keeping us down or are we about to catch up? 

    For median income, we found that 95 of the 100 poorest counties were located in red states. Here are the 10 poorest, all of them in red states

    For percentage of residents in poverty, we found that 93 of the 100 poorest counties were in red states.

    Yeah, let's vote for the Nation to become more Republican – then we can throw another 1,000 counties into poverty!  

    Painting of Noah and the Ark After the Flood Shutterstock

    The religious group will ask the state Tuesday for incentives to help build the $72 million first phase of the theme park in Williamstown, reported The Louisville Courier-Journal.

     

    The project coordinator told the newspaper that Ark Encounter meets all criteria for the tourism act, which allows eligible tourism attractions a 25 percent rebate of sales tax collected on ticket sales, souvenirs, and other sales over a 10-year period.

    The rebate could be worth as much as $18.25 million for Ark Encounter, which is affiliated with the Answers in Genesis ministry that operates the Creation Museum about 20 miles away, in Petersburg, Kentucky.

    When completed, Ark Encounter will feature a 510-foot wooden replica of the biblical Noah’s ark as its main attraction.

    Welcome Wombat!  

    WFM/Griffin – The biggest difference is my spread is starting out in the money @ $35 with WFM at $38.40 so I have bought just .45 of premium on the long spread while selling $3.60 of premium on the short puts.  So, with 500 options, I sold net $1,625 in premium over 533 days and will make about $3 a day on theta decay.  Aside from the $37/45 bull call spread making $2 less Dollars at $45 and needing $2 more dollars to make any money at the same net (about zero), you have bought $1.35 of premium on the bull call spread and sold $2.75 of it for net $1.40 premium sold ($700 on 5 contracts) over 533 days or about $1.40 per day so less than half the Theta gain of the other play.  It may not seem like much but, if you are giving up $1.40 a day on 20 positions (not even accounting for the poorer position and lower upside potential) that's $30 a day x 365 = $11,000 a year.  The real question is, what do you think is better about it? 


  69. griffin – They way I look at it, is a bunch of If Then statements

    If WFM at or below 33 at exp, then you own it for 33

    If WFM > 33 and <37 then you break even at 0.00.  You make nothing, lose nothing

    If WFM > 37 then you start making money with delta and theta.  Any price above 37 you win

    If WFM > 45 then you will collect 7 on a investment of 0.  A uncalcuable return :)


  70. Phil , how did you figure this out?

    ", I sold net $1,625 in premium over 533 days and will make about $3 a day on theta decay"


  71. TWTR / Phil .. took half my TWTR Jan 2016 $28/38 Bull Call Spreads off the table for nice 65% profit in just over 2 months. Wow, thanks :)


  72. HLF is again at the pre presentation levels before Ackman promised death blow on CNBC


  73. TASR is a playing the hero today..


  74. Diamond/CNP,

    That is really helpful. Thanks!

    Unusual acitivity definately helps if you are tracking those stocks but I guess the real trick is to know whether they were bought to open or sell to open as that gives the direction. it may also be possible to look at the trade price and compare that with the bid and the ask to find out whether they were bought to open (close to ask price) or sold to open (close to bid price).

    Thanks.


  75. Figuring/Burr – Like this, of course:

    This clip is also funny – this is actually the way I do look at things in my head.  

    Actually, it's just the net of the premium sold vs. bought x number of share divided by days to contract expiration.

    You are very welcome DM.  

    HLF/Abhis – They must be constantly rising from the dead in Ackman's nightmares.  

    TASR/Scott – Now we're talkin'!  It amazes me how so many clearly undervalued stocks can just sit around for months without being noticed until an earnings report slaps people in the fact.  Same for overvalued I guess.  Shows you how useless analysts are – these things shouldn't be a surprise.  


  76. The TASR combo from yesterday is now trading at 0.38.  Still a good deal for a $5 max upside with the spread 3.25 ITM.


  77.  Phil/ (and Burr) Thanks re WFM. The spread that I devised is attractive to me because the put-to price is lower, so more of a cushion there. The max profit is "only" a difference of 1.75, right? So I was thinking (dangerous) it would be a trade-off: less risk/less profit. I see what you are saying about premium and theta, though. My position leans more heavily toward buying premium than selling it, so I am not heeding all that you are trying to pound into our heads. But only ever so slightly:) As you say, over many trades, all those forsaken profits add up. Thank you for the analysis, it really helps!


  78. Looks like the mid on the CNP trade is now a credit of -0.70.  


  79. pat_swap – Yes, unusual option activity can be very tricky to actually trade. There are a lot of games that are played since so many people monitor it now. That is also why I usually wait to see if the “open interest” is confirmed as new open positions, and I now usually wait to try and find other sources to confirm my thoughts on a trade. Playing these can be very lucrative and/or expensive lessons. Honoring stops is an important key to playing as well since Mr. Market does like to play against you! ;-)

    Overall, patience is key to find the right trade set ups for your portfolio, trading style and risk management ability.

    Note: My CNP trade above is now offered at a $0.45 credit. FU Mr. Market!!! :-)


  80. Good old $100.70 is holding up so far on oil.  

    Dollar stuck at 80.60.

    90 mins to the Fed.  

    You're welcome Griffin.  Also consider that the sale of the $33 puts (delta .27) and the $37/45 (net delta .22) spread give you a net .49 delta vs the $35 puts (delta .33) and the $35/45 spread (net delta .28) for net .61 delta, which means you make 25% more on a move in our favor using my spread.  Again, if you are not confident in a position – better off not to play it at all than make a wimpy bet.  

     By the way, here's the last Fed minutes (June 18th) with the 10 new words in that document:

    Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in MarchAprilindicates that growth in economic activity has picked up recently, after having slowed sharply during the winter in part because of adverse weather conditionrebounded in recent months. Labor market indicators were mixed but on balancegenerally showed further improvement. The unemployment rate, thowevugh lower, remains elevated. Household spending appears to be rising more quickly. Bderately and business fixed investment edged downresumed its advance, while the recovery in the housing sector remained slow. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint is diminishing. Inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

    Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will continue to improve gradually, moving toward those the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as nearly balanced. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, and it is monitoring inflation developments carefully for evidence that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term.

    The Committee currently judges that there is sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy to support ongoing improvement in labor market conditions. In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions since the inception of the current asset purchase program, the Committee decided to make a further measured reduction in the pace of its asset purchases. Beginning in MaJuly, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $2015 billion per month rather than $250 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $250 billion per month rather than $3025 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee's sizable and still-increasing holdings of longer-term securities should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with the Committee's dual mandate.

    The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months and will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. If incoming information broadly supports the Committee's expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured steps at future meetings. However, asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee's decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee's outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.

    To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee continues to anticipate, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.

    When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

    Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Stanley Fischer; Richard W. Fisher; Narayana Kocherlakota; Sandra PianaltoLoretta J. Mester; Charles I. Plosser; Jerome H. Powell;Jeremy C. Stein; and Daniel K. Tarullo.

    On June 18th, those 10 words shot us up from 1,940 to 1,956 and we were 1,963 at the end of the week.  

    Since then, the Nas has outperformed the S&P by 1% (up 3% vs up 2%) and, with AAPL getting rejected at $100 anyway and the tech excitement running down (and SOXX still awful), I like QQQ Friday $96 puts at .22 as a fun play on the Fed and I still like SQQQ Jan $40/50 bull call spreads, now $2 (were $1.55 last week), and I like selling those PNRA 2016 $115 puts for $5.20 or LULU Jan $35 puts for $2.30 or IRBT March $27 puts for $2.40 or TASR 2016 $13 puts at $2.40 or HOV 2016 $4 puts for .75 or EGLE 2016 $2 puts for $1.

    So many ways to play!  

    Chart of Japan's Industrial Production:


  81. Phil, Any comment on setting up a Jan16 BCS on PAY ???


  82. There was some cocky hedge fund guy who was talking about how his fund was buying a ton of HLF the day of Ackman's speech because it was such a great company.  Wouldn't want to be in that fund.


  83. Phil, there's no play for CL at 100.70, correct?  Would you recommend shorting at 102 and going long at 100?


  84. Pay/Yodi – I think you need more vacation time, we just did these guys:

    PAY/Yodi – It's another company that doesn't actually make any money but carries a hefty ($4Bn) valuation.  IFF they can turn things around and make 10%, THEN there is some basis to the valuation but NCR, for example, has a p/e of 10 with $6Bn in sales and $400M in profits - so it's a rough competitive space.  Also, I'm not sure how you call $35 a "lower ladder" on PAY – their high was $38.26 but their low last year was $15.34 after being at $55 in 2012 and $36 at the start of 2013 – this is a crazy-volatile stock that's very tough to value and leaps up or down 10% regularly – not something I'd want to play unless they were back under $20 (long) or over $50 (short).

    This one is all about your faith in the management team to navigate what looks like a rough year ahead.  As I said last Monday, I'd like to see $30 tested first but nothing too compelling here. 

    Oil/Ricbah – Statistically, you can go long with a stop below $100.50 or hope for a spike down to $100.50 but then, going up from $100.70, you have strong resistance at $101, so the reward/risk ratio simply isn't all that exciting so, for me – I'd rather not play and see how things go.  There are 250 days a year to play the Futures – missing one or two is a lot less painful than trading for the sake of it. 


  85. Phil

    Is this day all about the Fed? GDP is extremely suspicious but I lost all respect for it last year and I assume the market's reaction is more than inventories. Oil was clearly a draw, prices down, what could they care about the Fed? Yesterday was all BOT, so far today even the machines are off. Will things move at 2? Is Janet speaking at 2:30? 


  86. Wow, XCO getting killed.


  87. Oil/Phil – Thanks for the advice, I agree with that.  I am proud of myself today, because I played with smart stops and entered at good points and ended up over $1,000 playing NKD/CLU/RB despite the confusing and potentially disastrous day, all thanks to the principles I've learned over the past week.


  88. /CL Phil wish you had written that note about oil futures at 11:30 and I would have been a lot better off. Oh well I needed a bad day to keep me humble and remember that you never have it completely figured out. Hopefully we will get some bounce into nymex close so I can recover a bit from the beating. That's what I get for bragging about how well I did yesterday. Giving much (but not all yet) back today. 


  89. /CL just fell to 100.08 so I re-entered


  90. Phil — I have a nice gain in LNKD in on a Jan 15 100/160 spread that I bought in May (100s were $63.21 and the 160s were $21.21) and the spread is now about $51.50. I've also sold some weeklys against it along the way.  I like LNKD as a company (everyone is on it, that I know, and paying) but I think it's had its run up into earnings tonight.  Should I take the money and run, or would you recommend some sort of roll?


  91. @escohen5

    LNKD earnings are tomorrow after close


  92. Rustle — thanks, you're right…I lost track of time!


  93. Fed/Shadow – Fed trumps GDP and, at the moment, I think the fear is they will tighten sooner than later.  It's going to happen one day – if this is how markets will react – it better not be soon!   I don't see anything scheduled by Yellen after. 

    XCO/Spank  - That's a nasty drop for a penny miss.  Could be a good entry opportunity when the dust settles.  

    Very nice Ricbah!  That's the way to play it.  Take those small profits and sometimes, by accident, big profits will come too.  

    Oil/Craigs – Not a good day for bulls but very good for our XOM and SCO short plays.  $100 still good for a bullish bounce on /CL – $100.70 weak, $101.40 strong.  Probably weak is best to expect.  

    New Fed statement:  More tightening and a bit more hawkish than last time, indications goals are being obtained – so sooner tightening.  Markets popping anyway – we'll just have to see where it goes:

    Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in AprilJune indicates that growth in economic activity has rebounded in recent monthsthe second quarter. Labor market icondicators generally showed further improvement. The unemployment rate, though lower, remains elevatedtions improved, with the unemployment rate declining further. However, a range of labor market indicators suggests that there remains significant underutilization of labor resources. Household spending appears to be rising moderately and business fixed investment resumed itis advanceing, while the recovery in the housing sector remaineds slow. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint is diminishing. Inflation has been running belowmoved somewhat closer to the Committee's longer-run objective, but l. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

    Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and, with labor marketcoinditions will continue to improve gradually,cators and inflation moving towardthoselevels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for the economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced. The Committee recognizes that and judges that the likelihood of inflation running persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, and it is monitoring inflation developments carefully for evidence that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium termhas diminished somewhat.

    The Committee currently judges that there is sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy to support ongoing improvement in labor market conditions. In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions since the inception of the current asset purchase program, the Committee decided to make a further measured reduction in the pace of its asset purchases. Beginning in JulyAugust, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $150 billion per month rather than $2015 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $2015 billion per month rather than $250 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee's sizable and still-increasing holdings of longer-term securities should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with the Committee's dual mandate.

    The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months and will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. If incoming information broadly supports the Committee's expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured steps at future meetings. However, asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee's decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee's outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.

    To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee continues to anticipate, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.

    When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

    Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Stanley Fischer; Richard W. Fisher; Narayana Kocherlakota; Loretta J. Mester; Charles I. Plosser; Jerome H. Powell; and Daniel K. Tarullo. Voting against was Charles I. Plosser who objected to the guidance indicating that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for "a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends," because such language is time dependent and does not reflect the considerable economic progress that has been made toward the Committee's goals.


  94. LNKD/Esco – You are right, it's a nice gain and there's no law saying you can't cash out and get back in after earnings and simply skip the madness.  The worst thing they can do is get away from you and then you "only" make your 25% in three months and the best thing they can do is sell back off and give you a nice re-entry – if you decide you still want to play.  Other than the potential for regret – not much to lose by being cautious.  If you REALLY wanted to own them, you can sell the 2016 $100 puts for $5.75 and, if they pop, you can put that money towards a new spread and if they drop, you can thank God you have $86 before those puts are in the money and then you can buy a nice cheap spread. 

    Wow, we though things would whipsaw on the Fed but this was pretty dramatic.  Seems unjustified to me but I guess we stick to the default view (in lack of speeches) that the Fed will continue to be accommodative long after the economy has warmed up.  

    Still, on the whole, we're not even back to the open in the Futures so how impressive is this bounce?  

    All we can do is sit back and let the daily candles draw themselves and then see what it looks like.  As noted above, we're still generally bullish in our portfolios and we never got a clear enough signal to add any more shorts to the STP.  Oddly enough, the LTP crossed over 20% today for the first time and the STP is still up 15.2% so we can't complain about our mix…


  95. Dollar plopped to 80.48, not a huge move down but helped kick the indexes up a little.  /NKD popped to 15,800 in an instant and now they are a lot more exciting as a short! 

    I'd also take a poke at /TF short at 1,145 with tight stops, as they've had a rough time getting over and 1,970 on /ES has also been a rough line.  If any of those 3 go over, then no play on the others.


  96. Phil PAY you right more vacation As I am not sitting all day at the computer I must have missed that one but thank for reminding me. Not every one is as smart as you so give this poor man a chance. (8 Thanks for helping to refresh my old memory.


  97. I agree Phil, move not impressive at this point. RUT needs to climb above 1150 on this move. If we peak out at 1147.5 we wii head back down.


  98. QCOM – Bouncing at the 200 dMA.


  99. UNP/pwright – well, its dropped back to my 'add a diagonal' zone, but not seeing anything I care to add with the pricing today, …so just hang on…
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BsqgiR7XO2g


  100. QCM / Albo – And $75 is decent S/R line as well.


  101. I'm, so far, liking my Friday XOM put butterfly which I bought for $41 per spread (plus comissions)…

    Buy 1 Aug-01-14 $100P

    Sell 2 Aug-01-14 $102P

    Buy 1 Aug-01-14 $104P

    Profit between $100.41 and $103.59 and a maximum loss of $41 (plus commissions) and a maximum profit of $159 (less commissions).


  102. Boorman - Forbes interview:

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/johnnavin/2014/07/17/an-interview-with-trend-following-technical-analyst-jon-boorman/

    Navin: Which is more important for trend identification: moving averages or trend lines? Why?

    Boorman: Trend lines. Both are useful, but a moving average is a derivative of price, a smoothing mechanism to more easily visualize the data, whereas a trend line, presumably of higher lows, represents price itself, so I would consider it more important in defining trend. It’s not uncommon for a stock to temporarily break below its MA’s but not invalidate its trend.


  103. scottmi re: UNP, no doubt, maybe better to wait to see if they hold $97.  there seems to be very good support at $93, would love to see them drop back to that spot before adding more longs (although will cash the ones I have long before that). 

    I sold some puts on MXWL today, I just sort of dig that company :)


  104. /CL flirting with $100 – uh oh


  105. Memory/Yodi – That's OK, I forget all sorts of things too – I'm just good at searching to remind me.  

    Here's the official Government Propaganda on how great things are going.

    Rick Santorum's new "invitation only" movie about religious freedom seems to be a hit.  

    Of course, when they say "Religious Freedom", they mean being free to discriminate against others:

    Another audience member was quite taken with an argument Heritage’s Ryan T. Anderson made in the film about businesses discriminating against gay people: “Should a gay-run printing company have to make ‘God Hates Fags’ signs for the Westboro Baptist Church?” “This argument just made so much sense to me,” she said. “I don’t know why we aren’t out there using it more.” Of course, the Phelps clan has its own in-house graphic design studio;they print their own signs.

    XOM/JPH – But of course, earnings tomorrow. 

    Moving average/Scott – I agree with that.  

    Finally our Futures shorts are working.  Not a good sign for the bulls that they are so soon after the Fed.  

    Gigantic water main break flooding LA – our crumbling infrastructure at work.  

    Finally, Hilsenrath speaks:

    WASHINGTON—The Federal Reserve said it would scale back its purchases of mortgage and Treasury bonds to $25 billion monthly and delivered a modestly more upbeat assessment of inflation, jobs and the economy, hours after a stronger-than-expected U.S. growth report.

    "Economic activity rebounded in the second quarter," the Fed said in its July policy statement, noting the labor market is improving, the jobless rate declining and inflation moving closer to its 2% objective. It included a qualifier noting that a range of indicators suggest there is still "significant" slack in the job market.

    The move kept the central bank on course to end the bond program by October, a wind-down strategy officials have signaled in recent public statements. The Fed launched the latest round of purchases in September 2012, ran them at $85 billion per month at their peak and began gradually winding them down in $10 billion increments in January.

    With that program on track to end, attention inside the Fed is increasingly turning to the timing and mechanics of interest rate increases. On this front, officials kept their cards close to their vest, sticking to guidance on rates that they have offered since March.

    Short-term rates will stay low for "a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends," the Fed said.

    Charles Plosser, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, dissented, arguing that this guidance on interest rates wasn't appropriate given the "considerable economic progress" officials had already witnessed.

    The central bank has kept its benchmark short-term rate—an overnight bank lending rate called the fed funds rate—pinned near zero since December 2008. Low rates are meant to encourage borrowing, spending, investing and growth to boost the economy in the near term. The bond purchases were meant as added fuel, aimed at holding down long-term interest rates and driving investors into riskier assets.

    With the economy apparently on a stronger path, the Fed is looking to pull back its support.

    The Commerce Department reported earlier Wednesday the economy grew at a 4% annual rate in the second quarter, bouncing back after a 2.1% first quarter contraction driven by bad weather.

    Inflation also shows signs of firming after running below the Fed's 2% target for the past two years.

    Meantime the jobless rate declined to 6.1% in June, far faster than anticipated. One of the more striking changes in the Fed's updated assessment of the economy was the removal of a phrase from earlier statements noting the jobless rate was elevated.

    Instead, the Fed said: "Labor market conditions improved, with the unemployment rate declining further. However a range of labor market indicators suggests that there remains significant underutilization of labor resources."

    The central bank also noted the movement of inflation toward its target. In previous statements the Fed said inflation was running below its 2% objective. In the latest statement it said inflation had moved "somewhat closer" to the objective. Officials also said the likelihood of inflation continuing to run below that target had diminished.

    Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen has said the timing of interest-rate increases would depend on how quickly inflation and the labor market moved toward the Fed's long-run goals.

    IMAX/Cdt – Earnings were BTE and this was the only report we were worried about so I do like them going forward.  They don't have very good potion pricing as contracts only go to March and, for example, the $24 puts are only $1.20 with the stock at $26.40 so net $22.80 is only 13% off so, for me, I want to stick to my guns and not buy them unless I catch them at $24 and can sell $23 puts for $1.50 or better (now .75).

    Our last entry was 7/16, when we had slightly better pricing:

    IMAX/Stock – Hmm, we do like them when they are cheap but people are bailing ahead of earnings (24th).  I guess because summer box office is off but I didn't see evidence of that in IMax theaters.  Those were packed whenever we went.  I think people have gotten into going to movies for IMAX and, otherwise, waiting to get things at home.  If they go lower, I won't be able to resist adding them to the LTP, anything below net $20 seems good to me.

    So we're not irresistibly cheap yet but $24 seems to be a solid floor.  I guess I'd take the March $25/28 bull call spread at $1.50 and sell $22 puts (now .80) for $1.25 or better if they drop.  If not, then the spread is on track, so no worries. 

    Oil/Wombat – Still making that weak bouncing ball pattern down and down.  


  106. /NKD 15,755, .YM 16,800, /ES 1,961, /TF 1,140 – watch stops if playing futures, this SHOULD be bouncy – very nasty fall possible if it isn't and Dow already failing their line.


  107. Checking in, a bit of surgery tomorrow, nothing fatal, but has kept me off the board.  I have been pondering the dollar level.  Currency levels are, in the first instance, interest rate-driven, or, at the least, expectation of interest rate levels.  France, the second largest economy in Europe, is stagnant, Spain picking up but with little employment growth so far, the Italian economy is stagnant over the last quarter, and, by most measures, the U.S. economy has returned to growth, both from a GDP and employment standpoint.  So why is the dollar comparatively weak?  And if it were to strengthen, whither equity prices?  I don't feel I have a handle on U.S./EC performance.  Anyone have a clearer view?


  108. Religious freedon / Phil - 

    When Jesus said "Love thy neighbor", the "when it's politically convenient and they look like you" was implied.


  109. Embedded image permalink

    Wow, check this out:

    Jim, you really enjoying the fact I missed out on after listening to you? how can that really be good?

     

    I am enjoying the hate--basking in it!!

    How does this man have time in his day to get into tweet fights?  That's what I find shocking…

    Don't blame grandma and grandpa for America's Social Security troubles. Blame low wages

    People who doodled were able to remember 29% more information than nondoodlers, a study found via cc

    Alibaba in talks to invest in Snapchat, valuing the mobile-messaging app at $10 billion. $

    Fed says policy always has winners/losers. You worked hard, lived modestly, saved, avoided risk. LOSER! CHUMP!

    Of the top 50 schools on our list, the average total cost is nearly $59,000:

    All schools shut & non-essential government staff placed on 30 days' leave as tackles . Background:

    According to the , the US economic recovery is so strong that after 5 years we still can't raise rates about ZERO.

    Why Yellen & the rest of the FOMC still see "significant" labor market slack: http://www.bloomberg.com/infographics/2

    More than 5,000 child immigrants find sponsors in the New York region as they await hearings via

    Mangling Obamacare's history: Conservatives revise some inconvenient ACA facts via

    Obama to Republicans: ‘Stop just hatin’ all the time’


  110. Dollar / Zero – I think it's all relative. Obviously we are in a race to zero with the yen and euro and they just won't give up! More seriously, looking at a 20 year chart of the dollar, you can see that back in 1995, the dollar was right where we are today. We had a big ramp up after that for the simple reason that Clinton ran budget surplus. It's obvious now that surpluses were an anomaly so as soon as the Bush taxes took their toll, the dollar was back again to where we are today (82 in 2005). Since then we have been rangish between 75 and 90! And between 79 and 84 the last 2 years. We are somewhat in the middle now. Not weak, not strong!


  111. Good luck, ZZ!  There's no way as many Euros are being printed as Dollars, that's keeping us relatively weak to them.  Also, we've discussed before that Dollars are about 60% of Global Reserves, Euros 15%, Yen 8%, Pound 4%, Swiss 2% and then others (even China) about 9% between them.  That means that people trying to diversify their currency holdings end up buying a disproportionate amount of other currencies relative to the Dollar, since people in other countries are not likely to go 2/3 Dollars. That keeps an artificial floor under other currencies as the rising Dollar lifts all ships.   

    Meanwhile, the Fed is actually cutting back on tapering and Obama has slashed the debt.  China's debt is getting parabolic (especially if you count corporate debt) and Japan is simply out of control with Europe about like us so anyone buying Asian currency is simply nuts but you know the average Asian has more than 10% of their money on that side of the World.  Chinese consider Australia and Japan to be diversifying and Japanese have Aussie and Hong Kong Dollars in the safe.   

    This is what happens when you have a fiat currency that is completely based on faith.  

    And what StJ said.  


  112. $99.62 on oil!  


  113.  /CL – holy crap! my only hope now is that the asians and europeans are a lot more bullish than whoever is driving the price since the outcry close. I noticed a nice pop in /CL on the London open this morning…false hope Phil?


  114. Seems like a momo squeeze in the last hour


  115. Any fun earnings plays?


  116. Oil/Ivan – You've been long through all this?  That's ugly.  $99.50 barely holding, if people start panicking, who knows where support will be?  $100 was the 200 dma and that didn't hold, for Asia and Europe, they will wake up to find oil gapped down $2 – what would you do if you saw that in the morning?  

    Squeeze/Rustle – Yep, they are saving what they can.  


  117. Phil, do you have an opinion on GNW?  They dropped down below 14 today, I remember they were in the Sabrient Baker's Dozen a few years back, seems they are being hurt by exposure to long term care business.  PE of 10 and forward 8, but premiums look pretty boring.  At any rate, thanks in advance..


  118. Phil/Oil-  Should we just short over night??


  119. Oil/Phil- isn't there a chance those oil traders wake up and see a bargain under 100, so they buy and start chasing it back up? 


  120. Actually, 99.50 has been a strong support line for oil since March. With the next support line at 98.


  121. Earnings/Palotay – Yes, we did WFM for earnings at 10:49. 

      GNW/Pwright – I used to pound the table on them at $5 but have lost interest as they passed $15.  They missed earnings but people are simply greedy as they were up 15% from last year:

    What's dangerous about them is the way they pushed long-term care insurance and now people are living a lot longer and that care is costing more.  Every time you see a study that prolongs life with expensive drugs, that's money pouring out of GNW's bank account.   So, though I do like the company, they'd have to be on a pretty drastic sale (around $10) for me to want to get on board. 

    Oil/Ricbah – I have no opinion on oil at $99.50.  It's outside of our established trading range and so, until it does establish a new range – how can we predict what it's going to do?  

    Oil/Craigs – There's always a chance and, geopolitically, I think it's a very dangerous short below $100 but, as I noted above, there are 780M fake contracts that need to be unwound between now and November 20th (termination of Dec contract).  If the buyers are drying up, oil can drop and drop and drop. 

    $99.50/StJ – I'd look for $97.50 to be the next strong support and then $95 and then $90.  Hard to see us dropping that far with all the nonsense going on in Russia and the Middle East.   Should be some Rent-A-Rebel action over the weekend.  


  122. Phil:  Your quote "This is what happens when you have a fiat currency that is completely based on faith" sounds like a Tweet of God — is that you behind the beard???


  123. Phil thanks re: GNW


  124. God/ZZ – I wish, that guy is funny!  

    You're welcome Pwright.  

    Well, I'm off to NYC to be on MoneyTalk tonight (7pm, BNN).  No change in our picks.  


  125. Thx Phil.  I already have a long term position on WFM, which is currently underwater. 


  126. Phil: Have a great time tonight.


  127. Oil/Craig – that's my hope…not much of a trading strategy but it's what I'm going with 



  128. Looks like AKAM is down about 8% and WFM down 5%. Better prices tomorrow!


  129. YELP taking off now… Up 15% between the day session and AH! What's the deal with the internet companies that don't make any money. Where have I seen this before?


  130. The beat goes on……

    BofA to pay nearly $1.3 billion over bad mortgages sold to Fannie, Freddi


  131. Quote of the day:

    Justin Fox, “(C)orporate taxes resemble Prohibition in the late 1920s: a set of laws that have lost their legitimacy, and can be flouted with little or no loss of social status.”  (HBR)


  132. Amazon cloud problem:

    http://www.feld.com/archives/2014/07/amazons-scorpion-problem.html

    Could Amazon’s nature be catching up with it, or is it just operating in a more competitive market? A set of emails went around from some of the CEOs of our companies talking about this followed by a broader discussion on our Foundry Group EXEC email list. It contained, among other comments:

    1. AWS is not the low price provider.
    2. AWS is not the best product at anything – most of their features are mediocre knock offs of other products.
    3. AWS is unbelievably lousy at support.
    4. Once you are at $200k / month of spend, it’s cheaper and much more effective to build your own infrastructure. [...]

    I love Amazon and think they have had amazing impact on our world. Whenever I’ve given them blunt feedback like this, I’ve always intended it to be constructive. I’m doubt it matters at all to their long term strategy whether they agree with, or even listen to, me. But given the chatter over the weekend, it felt like it was time to say this in the hope that it generated a conversation somewhere.

    But I worry some of the things they need to be doing to maintain their dominance is just not in their nature. In a lot of ways, it’s suddenly a good time to be Microsoft or Google in the cloud computing wars.


  133. That would have been my guess as well, but what do I know about Fed policies…

    http://pragcap.com/why-the-fed-doesnt-have-to-unwind-qe

    Also, it’s important to note that the Fed likely won’t unwind its balance sheet over time.  My guess is that the Fed will simply let the securities on its balance sheet mature which will reduce the balance sheet naturally over the course of time.  So the Fed can stop QE at any time and raise interest rates which will tighten monetary policy.  And if it really wanted to tighten policy it could kick QE in reverse and raise interest rates.  But it doesn’t have to do that to tighten policy.  Raising interest on reserves will tighten policy sufficiently when the time comes.  And it will do so simply by raising the rate paid on reserves.


  134. LOL!!!

    From the comments:

    “Note to future white-collar criminals: Don't name your crimes after, well, crimes. "Hustle" is a bad idea. Also, "Steal", "Swindle", "Pickpocket", "Shenanigans", etc.”

    Bank of America Ordered to Pay Nearly $1.3 Billion in Mortgage Case


  135. Stj/yelp – I tried a calendar play on Yelp, similar to what you tried on TWTR. It is looking good so far. Risk/reward looked pretty decent at about 3:1 assuming it didn't move more than 13% after hours according to TOS. Not sure though how the IV crush will impact the Aug long caller. 


  136. Yelp / Palotay – I was thinking about that as well, but talked myself out of it because of the TWTR move… These internet stocks are just out of control. IV crush will kill the weekly much faster than the August options but will still be lower tomorrow so don't expect the full payout. But going further in date does help even if it makes the play more expensive. Please let me know how that worked out tomorrow.


  137. Will do.


  138. Josh on TA:

    http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2014/07/30/theres-always-a-divergence/

    Technical analysts tend to talk a lot about divergences because they often can present an opportunity to make money. They can also presage a change in trend for a given index or stock or asset class – for example:

    • A stock’s price keep going lower but its relative strength stops dropping – this can be a sign that the momentum to the downside is slowing and a bottom is nigh.
    • An index breaks out to new all-time highs – but it does so with very few stocks that make up the index participating.
    • An index making new lows while a growing number of its constituent stocks stop falling (as was the case with the S&P 500 in March 2009).
    • The relationship between two commodities that typically move in the same or an opposing direction begins to come apart.
    • A sector is rallying but with each successive thrust, the gains become more concentrated between just a handful of the sector’s leading names.
    • etc, etc.

    The thing is, there is always a divergence. Sometimes they matter, sometimes they don’t. Sometimes one key divergence that was extremely important ends up meaning exactly zero the next time around. A single divergence, in and of itself, has all of the reliable predictive power of a bowl of chicken bones spilled out across the table.

    And since no one has ever been able to prove otherwise – isolating a single divergence and showing a consistent win rate based on following it – you’re going to have to take my word for it.

    Still some value to TA though… but as Josh quotes about divergences:

    “There’s no science behind that, people look at that kind of thing and they point out what they want to see.”


  139. Speaking of seeing what you want to see:

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2014/07/rising-revenue-increased-profits-bull-rally/

    Sorry, but I beg to differ. The chart shows that the rally has been driven — and in very large part — by a huge recovery in revenues and profits in corporate America following the financial crisis of 2007-09.

    The white line shows the price of the S&P500 index from December 2007 to today. Red line is revenues, blue line is earnings. As you can see, earnings have led the rally off of the lows, multiple expansion took over in the middle, and most recently, earnings have accelerated. Higher revenues have paced higher stock prices as well.

    I would be remiss if I did not acknowledge the role that lower borrowing costs lower companies’ expenses. That is a legitimate observation as to the impact of the Fed. For a variety of reasons, companies have chosen to engage in large buybacks as well, and that too plays a role.

    However, the storytellers would have you ignore the enormous improvement in sales and profits in order to stick to the story that the market gains are ALL FED PRINTING ALL THE TIME.

    Sorry, but that narrative fails.

    I would like to see revenues, earnings and the market on the same scale. The market is up about 180% from the lows (sorry Larry Kudlow), earnings are up over 300% in the same time period and revenues are up 30%. Cost cutting, lower borrowing costs and buy backs clearly paid a big role. Of course, cost cutting means fewer jobs and lower pay for the bottom 80% so there might be a price to pay eventually. But looking at it differently, from the market highs of December 2008, we are now about 30% higher in the market but earnings are only up about 38% since then and revenues are only marginally higher. So it seems to me that we are only slightly cheaper than then and we know what happened after that. On the other hand, what followed was not your run of the mill recession. And maybe the economy is picking up. But we can't be too complacent.


  140. A history of regime change:

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2014/07/quantifying-the-effects-of-u-s-regime-change/

    Nothing good has come out of it historically and yet we repeat the same mistakes!


  141. Buy and hold….

    http://mebfaber.com/2014/07/29/112-year-holding-period-not-enough/

    This is a great chart from Patrick O’Shaughnessy on worst case returns for stocks.  As you can see, the US had pretty good returns for the past 112 years, but even then there was a 20 year period where you still lost money.  In fact, MOST countries had a 30 year period where you could have lost money- ouch!

    tumblr_inline_n9h5n4bb4f1sj0pql


  142. Bought some QUIK in AH.


  143. QUIK trades like a 3x ETF Albo… and lately they even feature the decay as well smiley


  144. No doubt it's frustrating.  Schedule keeps getting pushed out for new products.  Still think the opportunity is very large, and that company will be very successful.  We'll see.  Keeping the faith.  I'll keep trading it back and forth until the good stuff comes.  At least that's the plan. ;-)


  145. And who needs options when you trade at $3.50! No worries about strikes, expiration and such. And BTW, they seem to be very trendy so TA seems to give some decent buy/sell signals.


  146. Our fearless leader on Money Talk

    http://www.bnn.ca/Shows/Money-Talk.aspx?vid=409168


  147. ABX loving us again….

    Barrick Gold (NYSE:ABX): Q2 EPS of $0.14 misses by $0.02.

    Revenue of $2.43B (-24.1% Y/Y) misses by $40M.

    Press Release

    Barrick Gold announced that it would be shaking up its management and that CEO Jamie Sokalsky would be stepping down.

    Senior Executive VP Kelvin Dushnisky and Senior Executive VP and COO Jim Gowans will co-run the company.


  148. Not much movement AH on ABX…


  149. Not so unlimited apparently!

    http://www.theverge.com/2014/7/30/5953139/fcc-deeply-troubled-by-verizon-plan-to-throttle-lte-data

    Wheeler floats another interesting point in his letter to Verizon Wireless CEO Dan Mead: throttling LTE data may violate the obligations Verizon undertook when it acquired valuable C Block spectrum. Those rules specifically state the largest US carrier "may not deny, limit, or restrict the ability of end users to download and utilize applications of their choosing on the C Block networks." Wheeler has asked Mead to offer his thoughts on the subject in a "prompt" response. He's also interested in hearing Verizon's "rationale for treating customers differently based on the type of data plan to which they subscribe," and why throttling and similar measures are necessary for such a vast LTE network to begin with.

    Again, throttling is common across every other major US carrier, so it's a bit odd to see the FCC come out swinging so aggressively at Verizon. Wheeler seems to be hinting that those C Block rules make a difference here, though the FCC's attempts to go toe-to-toe with Verizon have sometimes backfired in disastrous ways. We've reached out to Verizon for comment.


  150. Phil – what kind of play do you feel on NBL?


  151. Kim  Parlee on BNN sounds like she drank too many whisky shots last night.


  152. Nah, she sounds like she has a cold.


  153. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 3:28:31 AM


    July 31 (Bloomberg) — Khiem Do, Hong Kong-based head of Asian multi-asset strategy at Baring Asset Management Ltd., talks about U.S. and Asian stocks.
    He also discusses the U.S. economy, Federal Reserve policy, and Argentina’s debt negotiations. He speaks with Angie Lau on Bloomberg Television’s “First Up.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Europe’s benchmark equity index
    fluctuated amid mixed earnings, while the euro traded near a
    nine month low versus the dollar. Banco Espirito Santo SA shares
    were suspended after it said it will need to raise funds while
    emerging-market stocks fell and crude oil dropped.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1rQYqQF

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  154. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 12:00:01 AM

    July 30 (Bloomberg) — Bloomberg’s Peter Cook reports on the latest round of sanctions against Russia by the United States and European Union and looks at possible sanctions Russia can levy in retaliation. He speaks on “Bloomberg Surveillance.”

    The U.S. might move to limit
    derivatives trading and short-term loans with Russian companies
    if sanctions already imposed fail to sway President Vladimir Putin to end support for rebels in eastern Ukraine.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1preRjt

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  155. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 3:19:18 AM


    A worker stands on a ladder as he replaces letters of the company’s sign on the offices of Credit Suisse Group AG in Basel, Switzerland. Photographer: Gianluca Colla/Bloomberg

    Swiss banks will on the whole meet
    the deadline for delivering information on offshore accounts to
    the U.S., improving their chances of settling the cases this
    year.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/UN2QcK

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  156. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 2:19:55 AM

    Sony Corp. (6758) posted a surprise first-quarter profit on strong demand for the PlayStation 4 game
    console and a rebound at the box office for its Hollywood
    studios.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/WOjWJg

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  157. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 3:28:28 AM


    Adidas will restructure its TaylorMade golf unit “to align the organization’s overhead to match lower expectations.” Photographer: Stuart Franklin/Getty Images

    Adidas AG (ADS) fell the most in five
    years after the world’s second-largest sporting-goods maker
    slashed its 2014 earnings forecast and scrapped targets for next
    year amid Russian unrest and a slump in demand for golf
    equipment.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/WOmVRV

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  158. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 3:10:21 AM


    July 31 (Bloomberg) — Lars Machenil, chief financial officer of BNP Paribas SA, talks about the company’s second-quarter results, efforts to win back customer confidence and improve compliance after being hit by record fines for violating American embargoes, and the bank’s exposure to the Russian market amid sanctions against that country by the U.S. and European Union.
    Machenil speaks with Bloomberg Television’s Caroline Connan in Paris. (Source: Bloomberg)

    BNP Paribas SA (BNP), France’s biggest bank, posted the largest loss in its 14-year history after paying a record fine for doing business with Sudan and other countries blacklisted by the U.S.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/WOd4M3

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  159. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 3:09:04 AM


    Joe Kaeser, chief executive officer of Siemens AG. Photographer: Martin Leissl/Bloomberg

    Siemens AG (SIE) reported earnings that
    beat analyst estimates as a restructuring program at Europe’s
    largest engineering company started to bear fruit and profit
    from factory automation and building technologies offset energy
    project charges.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/WOdEJD

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  160. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 3:59:50 AM

    BT Group Plc (BT/A), the U.K.’s former
    phone monopoly, reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings
    as free sports channels attracted more broadband customers and
    offset declines in its other businesses.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/WOjcUm

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  161. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 3:14:44 AM


    Lloyds Banking Group Plc Chief Executive Officer Antonio Horta-Osorio. Photographer: Simon Dawson/Bloomberg

    Lloyds Banking Group Plc (LLOY), Britain’s
    largest mortgage lender, posted better-than-expected profit in
    the first half and forecast further improvement for the rest of
    the year.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/WOiOVS

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  162. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 3:26:59 AM

    Diageo Plc (DGE), the world’s biggest
    distiller, expects improvement in emerging-market performance in
    the second half of its current fiscal year after lackluster
    sales in regions such as Asia weighed on revenue growth.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/WOjGdl

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  163. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 3:36:58 AM

    Banco Santander SA (SAN), Spain’s biggest-bank, said second-quarter profit rose 38 percent, beating
    analyst estimates, helped by the U.K. and a recovery in its home
    market.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/UMXkGZ

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  164. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 3:28:46 AM


    July 30 (Bloomberg) — Bloomberg’s Peter Cook reports on the latest round of sanctions against Russia by the United States and European Union and looks at possible sanctions Russia can levy in retaliation. He speaks on “Bloomberg Surveillance.”

    A Norwegian drill rig owner is
    supplying Russian oil giant OAO Rosneft (ROSN) and Exxon Mobil Corp.
    with the kind of high technology that will be barred under U.S.
    and European Union sanctions taking effect as soon as tomorrow.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1obQrX7

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  165. From Bloomberg, Jul 30, 2014, 7:01:58 PM


    Barclays Plc Chief Executive Officer Antony Jenkins. Photographer: Simon Dawson/Bloomberg

    The largest global investment banks
    face further cost reductions, like the job cuts JPMorgan Chase &
    Co. (JPM)
    began this month, after a drop in first-half expenses failed
    to match a decline in revenue.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1prgVrM

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  166. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 3:37:54 AM


    July 30 (Bloomberg) — Taylor Wimpey Plc Chief Executive Officer Peter Redfern talks about the outlook for the U.K. housing market after reporting a first-half operating profit.
    He speaks from London with Jonathan Ferro on Bloomberg Television’s “On the Move.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    For equity-derivatives broker Andrew Adamson, it was a trade too good to pass up.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/UMLPQ4

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/bloomberg-for-ipad/id364304764?mt=8


  167. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 2:50:57 AM


    Bank of England Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent poses for a photograph following an interview at the Bank of England in London yesterday. Photographer: Simon Dawson/Bloomberg

    The “edge is coming off” the U.K.
    housing market and that may start to affect the wider economy by
    the end of the year, according to Bank of England Deputy
    Governor Ben Broadbent.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1rR3DIc

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  168. Watch this video at http://bloom.bg/XgWkNp

    Argentina Defaults According to S&P, Talks Continue

    July 30 (Bloomberg) — Standard & Poor’s declared Argentina in default after the government missed a deadline for an interest payment on $13 billion of restructured bonds. Casey Reckman, an economist at Credit Suisse Group AG, and Bloomberg’s Sheelah Kolhatkar and Michael McKee discuss the development with Cory Johnson on Bloomberg Television’s “Taking Stock.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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  169. Watch this video at http://bloom.bg/1rPpBLQ

    Greenspan: Significant Correction Likely in Stocks

    July 30 (Bloomberg) — Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warns of a likely “significant correction” in stocks due to the strength of the market’s return after the financial crisis. He speaks with Betty Liu on “In the Loop.”

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  170. Watch this video at http://bloom.bg/Xc6Rt7

    Get Up, Lose Weight: How Your Chair Is Killing You

    July 29 (Bloomberg) — Dr. James Levine, author of “Get Up!: Why Your Chair is Killing You and What You Can Do About It,” explains the risks of a sedentary lifestyle. He speaks with Cory Johnson on “Taking Stock.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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  171. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 1:18:16 AM

    July 30 (Bloomberg) — Argentina Economy Minister Axel Kicillof speaks at a news conference after Standard & Poor’s declared Argentina in default after the government missed a deadline for an interest payment on $13 billion of restructured bonds.
    The South American country failed to get the $539 million payment to bondholders after a U.S. judge ruled that the money couldn’t be distributed unless a group of hedge funds holding defaulted debt also got paid. (This report is in Spanish. Source: Bloomberg)

    With Standard & Poor’s saying Argentina is in default and last-minute plans to remedy the situation falling through, investor focus is turning to whether holders of $29 billion of bonds will demand immediate repayment.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/UMSbil

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  172. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 2:52:24 AM


    July 30 (Bloomberg) — Bloomberg’s Peter Cook reports on the latest round of sanctions against Russia by the United States and European Union and looks at possible sanctions Russia can levy in retaliation. He speaks on “Bloomberg Surveillance.”

    Traders who sent wagers against Russian stocks to a record high in March before getting burned by a rebound of more than 20 percent are showing no interest in betting against President Vladimir Putin a second time.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1nKzIPl

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  173. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 4:01:22 AM


    Two virtual currency exchanges that started in Vietnam this year are adding to the woes of a communist government that has seen the dong’s 26 percent slide since 2004 burnish the appeal of gold and dollars. Photographer: Karen BleierAFP/Getty Images

    Bui Huy Kien is ignoring the Vietnamese government’s warnings and accepting payment in bitcoin for advertisements on his website.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1pqsyPD

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  174. From Bloomberg, Jul 30, 2014, 2:36:04 PM

    Bitcoin has gained credibility after law enforcement and securities agencies said in U.S. Senate hearings that it could be a legitimate means of exchange. The price of Bitcoins topped $1,000 as speculators anticipated broader use of digital money. Photographer: George Frey/Bloomberg

    The Bitcoin Foundation’s executive director, Jon Matonis, travels the world to promote the virtual currency as a replacement for traditional money. Some of his members want him to focus on a less lofty goal: helping them make lots of old-fashioned cash.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1tu5HXe

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  175. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 3:55:00 AM

    German unemployment fell for the first time in three months in a sign that Europe’s largest economy is gathering pace after a second-quarter slowdown.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1twzEG2

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  176. From Bloomberg, Jul 30, 2014, 11:44:29 PM


    An employee, left, helps a customer as he inspects a Samsung Electronics Co. Galaxy S4 smartphone at the company’s d’light store in Seoul, South Korea. Photographer: SeongJoon Cho/Bloomberg

    Samsung Electronics Co. (005930) posted second-quarter profit that missed analysts’ estimates on increased marketing for its cheaper smartphones as it tries to fend off competition from Apple Inc. and Chinese producers.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1nKoD0P

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  177. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 3:41:37 AM

    Panasonic Corp. (6752), the main supplier
    of lithium-ion cells for Tesla Motors Inc. (TSLA) electric cars, has
    signed a deal to help build the battery factory Chairman Elon Musk needs to lower sticker prices.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1twzy1p

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  178. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 12:00:00 AM


    July 31 (Bloomberg) — Dissent among Federal Reserve policymakers at this stage is a surprise and sends a hawkish message, according to Christian Schulz, senior economist at Berenberg Bank in London.
    He was talking with Mark Barton, Caroline Hyde and Ryan Chilcote on Bloomberg Television’s “Countdown.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    The Federal Reserve’s policy
    committee has tuned into Chair Janet Yellen’s beat on the U.S.
    labor market, and it’s still playing the blues.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1prkX3p

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  179. From Bloomberg, Jul 30, 2014, 7:58:27 PM


    July 29 (Bloomberg) — The Ebola outbreak in West Africa is deadlier than any in recorded history, infecting 1200 people and killing 672 so far. Bloomberg looks at what makes this epidemic so dangerous and what the U.S. is doing to stop it. Video by: Alexandra Dean, Josh Block, Henry Bernstein, Alan Jeffries

    The U.S. Peace Corps began evacuating 340 volunteers from West Africa as Liberia promised to quarantine communities, close border-town markets and limit public gatherings to prevent the spread of deadly Ebola.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1nKtG1j

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  180. From Bloomberg, Jul 30, 2014, 8:28:48 PM


    Employees work on the trading floor of the Tokyo Stock Exchange on July 18, 2014. Photographer: Kiyoshi Ota/Bloomberg

    Tokyo’s stock exchange moved a step closer to lengthening the developed world’s shortest trading day after an advisory panel said the bourse should consider a separate evening session.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1pqjXMR

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  181. From Bloomberg, Jul 30, 2014, 10:20:55 PM


    July 31 (Bloomberg) — Kerry Brown, executive director of the University of Sydney’s China Studies Centre, talks about the corruption probe made public yesterday in China of Zhou Yongkang, the former state security chief and ally of ousted Chongqing party boss Bo Xilai.
    He spoke yesterday with Rishaad on Bloomberg Television’s “On the Move.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Chinese President Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption drive has breached the highest ranks of power. The most important beneficiary may be the economy.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1o4PjJb

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  182. From Bloomberg, Jul 30, 2014, 12:40:54 PM

    Though Susan Buffett’s name is not on the Nebraska ballot, her leadership position with Hassebrook’s campaign puts the offspring of two of America’s wealthiest men on opposite sides of a race where four percentage points separate the candidates. Photographer: Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images

    Chuck Hassebrook, Nebraska Democrats’ best chance in two decades for winning a governor’s race, stands at a hotel ballroom podium in an Omaha suburb and takes aim at his Republican opponent Pete Ricketts, the son of billionaire TD Ameritrade Holding Corp. (AMTD) founder Joe Ricketts.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1ppwtfw

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  183. From Bloomberg, Jul 30, 2014, 8:58:00 AM

    Payments for M-Kopa are made via M-Pesa and the embedded SIM allows the company to deactivate the lighting system when payments of as little as 40 shillings (46 cents) a day are missed. Source: M-Kopa Solar

    If Emily Parsitau wanted to light her home to ward off lions and intruders, she had to walk for an hour to buy kerosene at the nearest store. Now, she uses a SIM card.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1qiAOjy

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  184. From Bloomberg, Jul 30, 2014, 10:07:04 PM

    When is a tax not a tax? When you’re
    investing in Chinese stocks.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1prgXzE

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  185. From Bloomberg, Jul 30, 2014, 12:01:00 AM


    Glympse, based in Seattle, has experienced its fastest growth in the past four months since the app debuted in 2009, according to Chief Executive Officer Bryan Trussel. Source: Glympse via Bloomberg

    Becca Ludlum knows better than to expect her teen son, Michael, to call home as he skateboards from the mall to the park to friends’ homes on long summer days.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1ppwqAi

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  186. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 4:02:04 AM


    Jobseekers browse job notices displayed on a board inside an employment center in Monterotondo, Italy. Photographer: Alessia Pierdomenico/Bloomberg

    Italy’s unemployment rate fell to
    12.3 percent in June in a positive sign for Prime Minister
    Matteo Renzi’s economic program. Youth unemployment rose to a
    record high.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1twDhvO

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  187. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 2:52:59 AM


    Adjusted for inflation, overall pay fell 3.8 percent. Photographer: Tomohiro Ohsumi/Bloomberg

    Japan’s wage growth slowed in June,
    highlighting the risk to consumer spending as inflation squeezes
    household budgets in the world’s third-largest economy.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1nKSsyl

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  188. From Bloomberg, Jul 30, 2014, 10:58:07 PM

    China’s money-market rates declined
    as the central bank lowered the interest rate it pays on 14-day
    repurchase agreements, which were auctioned today for the first
    time in three months.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bloom.bg/1xCn8m9

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  189. From Bloomberg, Jul 31, 2014, 12:02:06 AM


    Beijing’s antitrust probe of Microsoft seems politically motivated.

    It’s hard to keep a straight face as China accuses Microsoft of “monopolistic behavior” and raids its offices in Beijing, Shanghai and elsewhere. What, that cartel known as the Communist Party suddenly has a problem with large organizations that dominate their particular sectors?

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1tvVuJL

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  190. From Bloomberg, Jul 30, 2014, 3:27:13 PM


    Just in case you might want to move your ships into the open water.

    Will Argentina, or its friends, be able to reach a settlement with its holdout creditors in time to prevent a default today? I am going to go with the answer “no, because Argentina has probably already defaulted,” but I acknowledge that there’s plenty of murk there. As best as I can tell, though:

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/WNtlkl

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  191. From Bloomberg, Jul 30, 2014, 5:29:14 PM

    Such a hassle using your hands …

    Martha Stewart — media colossus, etiquette dogmatist and erstwhile market-timing prodigy — has a drone now. And she’d like you to know all the totally non-felonious things normal people can do with these cool new gadgets.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1kmXwcH

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  192. From Bloomberg, Jul 30, 2014, 4:56:56 PM

    Time to be Pelosiesque.

    Even if the claims that Democrats invented the whole idea that Republicans want to impeach President Barack Obama are false, it’s certainly true that Democrats have been aggressively exploiting the impeachment threat. Nate Silver documents the numbers: MSNBC has mentioned impeachment more than four times as often as Fox News, and Democrats are bragging about raising money on the impeachment scare.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1uI4HQS

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  193. From Bloomberg, Jul 30, 2014, 4:53:55 PM


     So, no ‘thoughful’ person is pushing it?

    Tennessee Republican Senator Bob Corker says talk of impeaching President Barack Obama is a Democratic ruse, and that he doesn’t “know of any thoughtful person” who is actively calling for it.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1uI49KF

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  194. From Bloomberg, Jul 30, 2014, 2:18:56 PM


    Bubble vision.          

    In the world of financial media, it can be hard to separate news and analysis from entertainment. Ever since the crisis, financial entertainment seems to have shifted from hot stock picks to big macro theories. One advantage of spouting macro theories instead of stock picks is that it can take years for you to be proven wrong. Another is that you get to mix politics with economics, which is good for grabbing attention and building up a loyal following.

    To read the entire article, go to http://bv.ms/1rPVrbo

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  195. India, U.S. in talks over WTO Trade Deal

    04:38 AM ET · EPI

    • U.S. officials are continuing talks in India and are hoping that the new government will drop its objections for the WTO trade-facilitation deal (which must be approved by all 160 member governments to take effect) before tonight’s deadline.
    • Newly elected Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been looking to open up India’s closed economy, but states that he won’t sign off on the deal unless the concerns on the restrictions of farmers subsidies and food stockpiles for the poor are addressed.
    • ETFs: EPI, SCIF, INDY, PIN, INDL, INP, INXX, INDA, SCIN, SMIN, INCO


  196. Regulators also investigating Credit Suisse’s dark pools

    04:10 AM ET · CS

    • Credit Suisse’s (NYSE:CS) dark pools are the newest to join the high-frequency trading investigation, and are now being probed by several regulatory authorities.
    • “Credit Suisse is responding to inquiries from various governmental and regulatory authorities concerning the operation of its alternative trading systems, and is cooperating with those requests,” says the Zurich-based bank.


  197. Russia retaliates following increased sanctions

    03:57 AM ET · RSX

    • Russia has responded to the EU and U.S. sanctions which hit its country’s oil, arms and banking industries, saying that they would lead to higher energy prices in Europe and damage cooperation with the U.S. on international affairs.
    • In what looked like a retaliation, Russia declared a ban on most fruit and vegetable imports from Poland due to “sanitary reasons” and said it could extend it to the rest of the EU.
    • G7 leaders issued a joint statement yesterday warning Russia that it would face yet another round of economic sanctions if it did not change course on its Ukraine policy.
    • ETFs: RSX, RUSL, RSXJ, ERUS, RUSS, RBL, RUDR


  198. Samsung announces new models to challenge competition

    03:05 AM ET · SSNLF

    • Samsung (OTC:SSNLF, OTC:SSNGY) is planning a few new global smartphone launches to retrieve its lost market share and make up for its first quarterly net loss in almost three years.
    • Two high-end smartphones releases are planned within the next six months. “One model will have a large screen while the other will be built using “new materials”, says SVP Kim Hyun-joon.
    • The company will also introduce new mid-to-low-end models to counter low-cost Chinese competition.


  199. PayPal expands credit business

    02:31 AM ET · EBAY

    • PayPal (NASDAQ:EBAY) now plans on bringing its small-business and consumer lending programs outside the U.S.
    • PayPal Credit will soon be available in the U.K. and Germany, while PayPal Working Capital, its small-business credit arm, will expand to the U.K. and Australia.
    • The online payment company challenges traditional lending, and offers unique products which use alternative methods for approving loans, such as “sales history” with eBay or PayPal. The company also does not charge interest on the loans, but rather charges a flat upfront fee and deducts a percentage of each sale to repay the loan.


  200. Argentina defaults

    02:00 AM ET · ARGT

    • Negotiations with holdout investors and a last-minute Argentine bank proposal fell through yesterday, triggering Argentina’s sovereign default following its midnight deadline.
    • The default will further hurt Argentina’s economy which is already suffering from a recession and marks another set-back to the country’s attempts to return to the global credit markets.
    • Argentina has been isolated from international markets since its $100B default in 2002.
    • ETFs: ARGT


  201. Thursday’s economic calendar

    12:00 AM ET


  202. Yelp gives back gains on business account concerns

    Yesterday, 07:06 PM ET · YELP

    • Up sharply at first in response to its Q2 beat and solid top-line/EBITDA guidance, YELP is now down 0.6% AH.
    • The apparent culprit: Active local business accounts, while up 55% Y/Y to 79.9K, fell short of expectations. “They increased about 5,900 sequentially, we were looking closer to about 7,700 merchant heads,” says Raymond James’ Aaron Kessler.
    • The active accounts still only make up a small fraction of the millions of businesses with Yelp pages. Yelp has invested heavily in its local ad salesforce to grow penetration rates. Kessler thinks an expansion of Yelp’s search ad offerings could help with local business monetization.


  203. Tesoro misses Q2 EPS by $0.12 but approves $1B share buyback

    Yesterday, 06:55 PM ET · TSO

    • Tesoro’s (NYSE:TSO) Q2 earnings missed Wall Street expectations but a 2013 expansion of California operations and improved synergies helped produce a 9% Y/Y increase in earnings from continuing operations.
    • Q2 revenues rose 25% Y/Y to $11.1B, well above consensus, but cost of sales widened to $9.87B from $7.91B.
    • Estimates FY 2014 capital spending, excluding Tesoro Logisitcs (NYSE:TLLP), of $625M, a 7% reduction from prior guidance; TLLP capex is now seen at ~$200M, up 25% reflecting expected spending related to the construction of the Connolly Gathering System and the Anacortes truck rack.
    • Gross refining margin fell to $13.35/bbl from $14.75 during the prior-year period.
    • Hikes its quarterly dividend to $0.30 from $0.25 and announces a $1B stock repurchase program.


  204. GE’s Synchrony Financial prices IPO at low end of range

    Yesterday, 06:31 PM ET · SYF

    • Synchrony (Pending:SYF) has priced its 125M-share IPO at $23, the low end of a $23-$26 range. Shares begin trading tomorrow.
    • The GE retail credit unit has raised $2.87B, and is valued at $19.1B. GE will have an 84.9% post-IPO stake.
    • Prospectus


  205. Barrick Gold misses Q2 estimates but lowers full-year cost guidance

    Yesterday, 06:15 PM ET · ABX

    • Barrick Gold (NYSE:ABX) -0.9% AH after Q2 earnings and revenues missed analyst expectations, reflecting a weaker gold price and lower gold and copper sales volumes.
    • ABX reports Q2 production of 1.485M oz. at all-in sustaining costs of $865/oz., and says the cost improvement “in a lower production quarter clearly demonstrate our ongoing and relentless focus on company-wide cost management.”
    • Q2 results included a $514M impairment charge related to ABX’s Jabal Sayid mine in Saudi Arabia in which it sold a 50% interest; year-ago results included $8.7B in charges, mostly related to its Pascua-Lama project in South America.
    • Cuts 2014 all-in sustaining cost guidance to $900-$940/oz. vs. a previous forecast of $920-$980; also cuts operating cost guidance to $580-$630/oz.
    • Also cuts its 2014 capex guidance range to $2.2B-$2.5B from $2.4B-$2.7B.
    • Maintains full-year production forecast at 6M-6.5M oz.


  206. 3D Systems buying healthcare simulator firm for $120M

    Yesterday, 05:46 PM ET · DDD

    • Ahead of tomorrow morning’s Q2 report, 3D Systems (NYSE:DDD) announces it’s buying Simbionix, maker of a line of simulators for surgical planning/training, for $120M in cash. The deal is expected to be immediately accretive to EPS.
    • Simbionix offers 16 simulation platforms that support 60+ interventional procedures. Though its hardware isn’t used to print anything, 3D asserts the purchase expands its “healthcare capabilities from the training room to the operating room.”
    • Acquisition-hungry 3D is only 4 months removed from buying Medical Modeling, a provider of imaging/modeling products and 3D-printed implants for surgeons. The company’s healthcare revenue rose 53% Y/Y in Q1 to $21.7M (15% of total revenue).


  207. AMC Entertainment beats by $0.03, misses on revenue

    Yesterday, 04:57 PM ET · AMC

    • AMC Entertainment (NYSE:AMC): Q2 EPS of $0.32 beats by $0.03.
    • Revenue of $726.6M (-0.0% Y/Y) misses by $17.4M.
    • Shares -2.3%.
    • Press Release


  208. Yum -6.2% AH; Chinese sales hurt by undercover report

    Yesterday, 04:47 PM ET · YUM

    • YUM states it has seen “a significant, negative impact to same-store sales at both KFC and Pizza Hut in China over the past 10 days” due to an undercover report regarding the practices of food supplier Shanghai Husi (a division of OSI Group). (8-K)
    • The report alleged OSI sold chicken and beef beyond its expiration date, among other things. Yum has already cut ties with OSI over the scandal.
    • Yum, whose Chinese sales had been recovering after getting clobbered last year by avian flu-related issues, says it’s “too early to know how quickly sales will rebound in China.”


  209. Glu -5.1% AH; $100M acquisition announced, guidance hiked

    Yesterday, 04:40 PM ET · GLUU

    • Along with its Q2 results, Glu Mobile (NASDAQ:GLUU) has announced it’s buying Cie Games, the maker of popular iOS/Android game Racing Rivals, for $100M – $30M in cash, $70M in stock that’s considerably more valuable than it was a few weeks ago.
    • The deal is expected to close by the end of August. Racing Rivals is respectively ranked #27 and #15 on App Annie’s lists for the top-gross U.S. iPhone and Google Play apps.
    • Thanks to the Cie acquisition and the runaway success of Kim Kardashian: Hollywood, Glu expects Q3 revenue of $80M-$85M and full-year revenue of $222M-$232M, far above consensus estimates of $51M and $184.1M. However, a lot of good news was priced in over the last month.
    • Q2 gross margin was 64%, flat Y/Y. GAAP opex rose 47% Y/Y to $31.7M, with R&D accounting for $17.3M.
    • Q2 adjusted EBITDA was -$0.9M. However, full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance is at $19.1M-$23.1M.
    • Q2 results, PR


  210. Fidelity National Financial EPS in-line, beats on revenue

    Yesterday, 04:39 PM ET · FNF

    • Fidelity National Financial (NYSE:FNF): Q2 EPS of $0.47 in-line.
    • Revenue of $2.36B (+3.5% Y/Y) beats by $730M.
    • Press Release


  211. More on Kraft Foods Group’s Q2

    Yesterday, 04:25 PM ET · KRFT

    • Kraft Foods Group (NASDAQ:KRFT) reports organic sales rose 1.5% in Q2.
    • Improved pricing added 60 bps to the comp gain while a favorable shift in mix added 90 bps.
    • The company’s Refrigerated Meals segment saw the best sales growth at 2.6%, led by the introduction of P3 Protein Packs and aided by the shift of Easter-related bacon sales into the quarter.
    • KRFT +0.1% AH


  212. Biotechs to use priority review voucher for cholesterol-lowering drug candidate

    Yesterday, 04:24 PM ET · REGN

    • Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN +5.8%) and partner Sanofi (SNY +1.4%) (OTCQB:SNYNF +0.3%) intend to use an FDA-issued rare pediatric disease review voucher for their alirocumab BLA. The voucher entitles the holder to designate a BLA for a six-month priority review instead of the standard 10-month review period.
    • Regeneron subsidiary Regeneron Ireland purchased the voucher from a subsidiary of BioMarin Pharmaceuticals who received it through the FDA’s program. The companies will each pay half of the $67.5M price. They intend to submit the BLA before the end of the year.


  213. Boston Beer beats by $0.09, beats on revenue

    Yesterday, 04:24 PM ET · SAM

    • Boston Beer (NYSE:SAM): Q2 EPS of $1.88 beats by $0.09.
    • Revenue of $231.61M (+27.7% Y/Y) beats by $6.91M.
    • Press Release


  214. Comp sales decelerate at Whole Foods Market

    Yesterday, 04:16 PM ET · WFM

    • Whole Food Market (NASDAQ:WFM) reports comparable-store sales rose 3.9% in FQ3 vs. 4.7% consensus. The mark extends a streak of decelerating comp growth (4.5% in FQ2, 5.4% in FQ1, 5.9% in FQ4) and looks even worse in light of the shift of Easter into the quarter.
    • Transactions were up 2% in FQ3, while the average basket was 1.9% higher.
    • Average weekly sales per store were $736K.
    • The company announces a new $1B buyback program.
    • FY14 guidance: Comp sales 9.6%-9.9%; store count +38; EBITDA margin 9.1%-9.2%; EPS $1.52-$1.54
    • WFM -4.8% AH


  215. More on AMC Holdings’ Q2

    Yesterday, 04:07 PM ET · AMC

    • AMC Holdings (NYSE:AMC) reports admission revenue fell 5.8% in Q2 despite a rise in the average ticket price to $9.55.
    • Food and beverage revenue per patron was up 4.5% to $4.22.
    • The company had a net 13 theater openings during the period.


  216. BofA ordered to pay $1.3B in “hustle” case

    Yesterday, 04:05 PM ET · BAC

    • Calling it a “brazen fraud” in which the Countrywide set up a scheme to sell toxic mortgages to the GSEs, Judge Jed Rakoff orders Bank of America (BAC +1.6%) to pay a $1.3B fine.
    • The fine is less than the $2.1B sought by the government, more sharply higher than what the bank had hoped to pay.
    • BofA: “We believe that this figure simply bears no relation to a limited Countrywide program that lasted several months and ended before Bank of America’s acquisition of the company. We’re reviewing the ruling and will assess our appellate options.”


  217. Boeing to build 787-10 at South Carolina non-union plant

    Yesterday, 02:27 PM ET · BA

    • Boeing (BA +0.2%) says it will build a new version of its flagship 787 Dreamliner jet exclusively at its non-union factory in South Carolina, rather than in Seattle, where most of its wide-body jets are built.
    • The 787-10, a longer version of the Dreamliner scheduled for delivery in 2018, will be the first Boeing jetliner model to be built solely in a non-union factory.
    • BA says the decision was dictated by the stretched length of the jet’s mid-fuselage, which will be too large to fit in its Dreamlifter cargo fleet for transport to its main plant in Washington.


  218. Moody’s warns on Radio Shack cash crunch

    Yesterday, 02:20 PM ET · RSH

    • RadioShack (RSH -1.8%) will face a serious cash crunch by November of 2015 unless there is a new capital infusion, according to a forecast from Moody’s.
    • The retailer’s inability to close stores as quickly as it would like due to lender restraints is keeping it in a cash flow death spiral.


  219. Ebola-stoked money flowing into Tekmira

    Yesterday, 02:14 PM ET · TKMR

    • Shares of thinly-traded Tekmira Pharmaceuticals (TKMR +16.6%) jump on a 3x surge in volume as investors anticipate FDA action to the persistent Ebola outbreak in Africa. The company has an RNAi therapeutic in development to treat Ebola infection. The FDA designated it Fast Track in March 2014.


  220. Ford CEO talks trade on Capitol Hill

    Yesterday, 02:07 PM ET · F

    • Ford (F -0.8%) CEO Mark Field urged Congressmen today to take a harder line on currency manipulation as they negotiate over the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement.
    • For the most part, prior trade deals with Japan have left holes that industry execs maintain have been exploited to make auto exports to the U.S. cheaper.
    • GM CEO Mary Barra has made similar statements in DC, although GM’s massive recall headache has kept its focus elsewhere lately.


  221. Gogo adds $75M to credit facility

    Yesterday, 02:03 PM ET · GOGO

    • Gogo (GOGO +4.1%) has obtained a $75M increase for an existing $248M credit facility. The in-flight Wi-Fi provider only says the proceeds will be use for “general corporate purposes.”
    • Gogo had $220M in cash/investments as of March 31, and $242M in debt. Q2 results arrive on Aug. 11.


  222. Cray slips on light Q3 outlook; SGI rallies

    Yesterday, 01:51 PM ET · CRAY

    • Though Cray (CRAY -1.7%) beat Q2 estimates, it’s guiding for Q3 revenue of $125M, below a $156.9M consensus.
    • Cray, whose quarterly sales can swing wildly due to the timing of a few deals, still expects 2014 revenue of ~$600M (consensus is at $599.4M), but cautions “a wide range of results remain possible.” 56% of the company’s 2014 revenue is expected in Q4.
    • On the CC (transcript), Cray noted $10M in sales previously expected in Q3 were pulled into Q2 (driving the revenue beat). It also stated Q3 results are “expected to be dependent on a few significant customer acceptances that are likely to come down to — late in the quarter.”
    • At the same time, management struck an upbeat tone about Cray’s ability to grab share from top supercomputer rival IBM, both due to the pending sale of IBM’s x86 server unit to Lenovo and the lack of a refresh for its Blue Gene supercomputer line.
    • The company also talked up its efforts to boost Sonexion storage sales by integrating more proprietary IP. Seagate’s Xyratex unit is an OEM partner.
    • Interestingly, peer SGI (SGI +8.5%) is up sharply. SGI’s FQ4 report is due on Aug. 6; 11% of the company’s float was shorted as of July 15.


  223. Tough day for DreamWorks Animation

    Yesterday, 01:30 PM ET · DWA

    • Shares of DreamWorks Animation (DWA -12.6%) sink to a 52-week low after the company misses Q2 earnings estimates.
    • On top of the weak performance in the quarter from the studio, the company is being threatened in several shareholder class-action lawsuits.
    • A couple of investment firms soured on DWA amid the new developments. Cowen lowered its full-year EPS forecast to -$0.15 and FBR Capital lopped off $4 from its PT to take it to $20.


  224. Box office: Strong expectations for Guardians of the Galaxy

    Yesterday, 01:24 PM ET · DIS

    • This weekend’s debut of Guardians of the Galaxy will be the largest August opening in history with the Marvel (NYSE:DIS) film tapped to show in over 4K theaters including 350 IMAX (NYSE:IMAX) locations.
    • The studio expects a $65M opening, while some Hollywood forecasts range as high as $74M.
    • The film is being closely watched in the industry because the major superhero characters aren’t well-known. A successful run would bode well for more profitable character spinoffs from powerful franchises such as The Avengers and Star Wars.
    • Guardians is also one of the last big chances for the summer box office to recover to approach last year’s level.
    • Related stocks: CKEC, CNK, RGC, MCS, RDI, AMC


  225. The conference call you don’t want to miss

    Yesterday, 01:03 PM ET · TWX

    • Time Warner’s (NYSE:TWX) reports earnings next week (August 6), but it will be the conference call with CEO Jeff Bewkes where the most drama might take place, according to analysts.
    • The exec will have to justify why the $85-per-share-offer from 21st Century Fox for the media giant wasn’t good enough to bite on.
    • Bewkes will need to navigate the Q&A carefully when discussing the poison pill approach by the board which could disrupt an even higher offer being made by Fox.
    • What to watch: Any hint by Bewkes that a tech heavyweight such as Google or Verizon has been sniffing around could send shares of TWX into orbit.


  226. New highs for AMT after Q2 beat, guidance hike

    Yesterday, 12:51 PM ET · AMT

    • In addition to beating Q2 estimates, American Tower (AMT +3.9%) is hiking its full-year AFFO guidance to $1.755B-$1.795B from $1.725B-$1.765B, and its full-year rental/management revenue guidance to $3.945B-$4.015B from $3.895B-$3.975B.
    • At the midpoint, the revenue forecast assumes domestic revenue of $2.625B, and international revenue of $1.355B. Full-year core domestic revenue is expected to grow over 9% on an organic basis (accounts for acquisitions), and international organic core growth is expected to be near 15%.
    • Full-year capex guidance has been hiked by $75M to $925M-$1.025B. Discretionary capex is expected to total $480M-$540M, and cover the buildout of 2,250-2,750 new sites.
    • Organic core revenue grew 11.4% Y/Y in Q2 in the U.S., and 17.9% internationally. Gross margin fell 120 bps Y/Y to 74.1%; segment op. margin was steady at 68%.
    • AMT’s site portfolio grew by 1,112 Q/Q to 68,822. 642 were constructed, 508 acquired, and 38 lost due to adjustments. Strong 4G buildout activity is providing a boost to site demand.
    • Q2 results, PR


  227. Report: Shutterfly draws M&A interest

    Yesterday, 11:46 AM ET · SFLY

    • Sources tell dealReporter Shutterfly (SFLY +3.1%) has drawn buyout interest as it continues looking for a suitor. Shares have spiked higher on the report.
    • Bloomberg reported 4 weeks ago Shutterfly has hired Qatalyst Partners (headed by famed tech banker Frank Quattrone) to find a buyer.
    • Q2 results are due this afternoon.


  228. Report: HBO to offer lower incentives to pay-TV operators

    Yesterday, 11:40 AM ET

    • Time Warner TWX plans to take a hard line with pay-TV operators in upcoming negotiations over HBO, reports New York Post.
    • In particular, HBO will look to dial back the deals it offers to distributors that go above a certain threshold of subscribers.


  229. U.S. Steel +18%, hitting three-year high, after issuing sunny outlook

    Yesterday, 11:18 AM ET · X

    • U.S. Steel (X +17.9%) jumps to a three-year high after reporting better than expected Q2 earnings and sales and forecasting an improvement in the current quarter.
    • “Steel consumption has bounced back quite well,” CEO Mario Longhi said in today’s earnings conference call, adding that the market is consuming flat-rolled steel – the company’s largest segment by sales – “at a rate well above 2013 levels.”
    • Longhi noted that the flat-rolled segment experienced operational challenges in Q2 – such as the Great Lakes facility being offline for half the quarter – that were among the most difficult in the company’s history, but all operations now are back online, and the company was able to handle back orders by the end of Q2.
    • The CEO says X is not seeing the typical summer slowdown, mostly because automotive has remained strong and service center inventories are below normal levels; also, the lean supply chain inventories are carrying over to Q3.
    • Other steel names also move higher: AKS +3.5%, STLD +0.7%, NUE +0.4%.


  230. Twitter pares gains a bit as both upgrades and downgrades arrive

    Yesterday, 11:17 AM ET · TWTR

    • 8 firms have hiked their Twitter (TWTR +20.8%) targets following yesterday’s big Q2 revenue beat and strong guidance, and 4 have upgraded. But the company has also caught downgrades from Evercore and Pivotal Research in response to its massive post-earnings gains.
    • “While Q2 demonstrated the ongoing success in commercial execution we have come to expect … there was nothing thesis changing about the results,” says Pivotal’s Brian Wieser, cutting shares to Sell. He adds that while margin trends are positive, Twitter has “affirmed no change to long-term goals.”
    • JPMorgan’s Doug Anmuth (Neutral) questions Twitter’s ability to gauge the World Cup’s impact on new user growth, and also notes 14% of MAUs stem from automated activity by 3rd-party apps.
    • Others are more positive, moreso due to improving monetization than user growth. Cowen, which has upgraded to Market Perform: “While engagement and valuation still concern us, product improvements and new ad units coming to market (e.g. app installs) should drive monetization benefits.”
    • RBC (Outperform): “We’d argue that TWTR’s ‘mainstreamization’ efforts have still only recently begun. There’s a lot more Twitter can do here … And the [Facebook] historical monetization and margin ramps provide a clear roadmap for where TWTR’s P&L can go.”
    • Prior Twitter earnings coverage


  231. McDonald’s could be responsible for franchisee employees

    Yesterday, 11:10 AM ET · MCD

    • McDonald’s (MCD -0.2%) will have to be a defendent in cases brought before the NLRB against its franchisees, according to a ruling by the NRB general counsel
    • If the 5-person NLRB ruling board agrees on the distinction of what constitutes a joint employer, it could spell trouble for other restaurant operators as well.


  232. Bloomberg: Alibaba looking to invest in Snapchat at $10B valuation

    Yesterday, 10:47 AM ET · BABA

    • Bloomberg reports Alibaba (Pending:BABA) and other investors are in talks with Snapchat to invest in the ephemeral messaging service at a potential $10B valuation.
    • Last year, Snapchat was reported to have rejected a $3B+ offer for Facebook; one report stated Google made a $4B offer.
    • The reported valuation is on par with the pre-IPO target set by Asian mobile messaging giant Line (OTC:NHNCF), which has far more users (470M+ registered) and revenue ($338M in 2013) than Snapchat. It’s also equal to 53% of the $19B price paid by Facebook for WhatsApp (500M+ active users).
    • Alibaba has been on a huge investment spree ahead of its IPO, which is expected to arrive at some point after Labor Day.


  233. Garmin -6.2%; guidance hiked, foreign cash to be repatriated

    Yesterday, 10:04 AM ET · GRMN

    • With a big Q2 beat on the books, Garmin (NASDAQ:GRMN) now expects 2014 revenue of $2.75B-$2.85B and EPS of $2.95-$3.05, above prior guidance of $2.6B-$2.7B and $2.50-$2.60; consensus is at $2.71B and $2.77.
    • The company also says it will repatriate cash by moving “certain US subsidiaries out from under our Taiwanese subsidiary.” Garmin will make $300M in related tax payments over the next year, and declares the action will allow it to “fund dividends, share repurchases, and acquisitions.”
    • Auto/mobile sales (45% of revenue) +2% Y/Y in Q2 to $350M. Fitness +79% Y/Y to $150.7M thanks to vivofit fitness band demand and new biking/running product launches. Outdoor -1% to $106.1M, aviation +11% to $97.3M, marine +1% to $73.8M.
    • Gross margin was 57%, even with Q1 and up from 55% a year ago; a 65% fitness GM provided a boost. GAAP opex +6% Y/Y to $225.7M. $129M was spent on buybacks.
    • Ahead of the repatriation, Garmin ended Q2 with $2.8B in cash/investments, and no debt.
    • Q2 results, PR


  234. Promising signs at Pitney Bowes

    Yesterday, 09:59 AM ET · PBI

    • Pitney Bowes (PBI +5.2%) gains after Q2 results match expectations and the firm’s guidance looks promising.
    • The Digital Commerce Solutions segment saw a 27% jump in revenue to $211M during Q2 and 17% rise in EBIT to $18M.
    • The company raised its view of FY14 EPS to $1.80-$1.90 vs. $1.75-$1.90 prior and $1.85 consensus.


  235. Eni shuts some Nigeria oil production after sabotage

    Yesterday, 09:56 AM ET · E

    • Eni (E -1.1%) says it has shut off some crude production following sabotage on a Nigerian pipeline it operates in the central part of the Niger Delta, leading to the interruption of 4K bbl/day it gets from its 20% share.
    • Though the disruption is small, it comes as Nigeria’s high-quality oil supplies are acting as a supply cushion for international oil markets beset by disruption risk in places such as Libya and Iraq.
    • The news, along with sending specialist planes to fight oil fires in Libya this week, will add to pressure on Eni to diversify away from Africa.


  236. Sprint’s subscriber losses continue; cost controls boost EBITDA

    Yesterday, 09:48 AM ET · S

    • The Sprint (S +1.2%) platform lost 181K postpaid subs and 542K prepaid subs in Q2, compared with losses of 231K and 364K in Q1. After factoring Nextel declines, total retail postpaid and prepaid losses were respectively 245K and 619K. 530K wholesale/affiliate subs were added.
    • Verizon and AT&T have delivered much better Q2 subscriber add figures (moreso for postpaid than prepaid), and would-be merger partner T-Mobile is expected to tomorrow.
    • However, cost controls allowed Sprint’s adjusted EBITDA to rise 30% Y/Y to $1.83B (a faster growth rate than Q1′s 22%), and adjusted EBITDA margin rose to 23.8% from 17.4% a year ago. Capex fell to $1.25B from $1.49B in Q1 and $1.58B a year ago. Free cash flow was still -$496M.
    • Wireless service revenue fell 4% Y/Y to $7.09B. Sprint platform postpaid churn was 2.05% vs. 2.11% in Q1 and 1.83% a year ago; prepaid churn was 4.44% vs. 4.33% in Q1 and 5.22% a year ago.
    • Wireline revenue fell 18% to $746M, a decline worse than Q1′s 14%. Wireline adjusted EBITDA margin declined to 4.7% from 14.2% a year ago.
    • On the CC, CEO Dan Hesse confirmed Sprint is testing new plans ahead of the iPhone 6 launch and the holiday season.
    • Full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance of $6.7B-$6.9B has been reiterated. However, capex guidance has been cut by ~$1B to less than $7B.
    • Q2 results, PR


  237. Heard during Panera Bread’s earnings call

    Yesterday, 09:27 AM ET · PNRA

    • A drop in guidance from Panera Bread (NASDAQ:PNRA) is based partially on the expectation that the average check at the chain will increase slower than anticipated.
    • Management expects a flat to 1.5% gain in comp sales vs. an original forecast of 2.0%-3.5% which was partially based on Panera solving its traffic-slowing “mosh pit” pickup area.
    • Execs pointed out higher costs on items such as butter and avocados are forecast. Food inflation costs are expected to rise at least 1.5%.
    • Panera Bread earnings call webcast
    • PNRA +2.3% premarket


  238. Harry Potter to live on at Warner Bros.

    Yesterday, 08:26 AM ET · TWX

    • Warner Bros. (NYSE:TWX) has created the Harry Potter Global Franchise Development team to help squeeze out more projects from the franchise which churned up a cool $8B at the box office.
    • The group will work with Potter author J.K. Rowling on a variety of TV, film, theme park, and digital projects.


  239. Penn West -9% after revealing accounting irregularities

    Yesterday, 08:15 AM ET · PWE

    • Penn West (NYSE:PWE) -9.3% premarket after reporting details of accounting irregularities and launches a review of its financial statements dating back four-and-a-half years, adding that its historical financial documents for the period under review are not reliable.
    • PWE says the voluntary accounting review could force it to reduce its budget and royalty expense expectations for 2014 and increase its operating cost predictions.
    • The release of Q2 earnings results may be delayed because of the review.
    • Also, PWE reports Q2 production of ~108K boe/day (64% oil and liquids) and maintains 2014 production guidance of 101K-106K boe/day.


  240. Pound forecast cut at Citi

    Yesterday, 08:06 AM ET · FXB

    • With markets already pricing in “considerable” tightening from the Bank of England, what upside surprises are left for the pound, asks Citi’s Valentin Marinov, his team forecasting the currency to strengthen to no more than $1.72 by year-end vs. a previous estimate of $1.77.
    • Investors, says Marinov. are now starting to pay attention to downside risks, like September’s Scottish vote for independence and the role of the U.K. in a more integrated EU.
    • The pound, of course, has been on a roll, up 12% over the last year – making it the best performer among 10 developed nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg.
    • ETFs: FXB, GBB


  241. More on R.R. Donnelley’s Q2

    Yesterday, 07:03 AM ET · RRD

    • R.R. Donnelley (NASDAQ:RRD) reports organic sales grew 0.8% in Q2.
    • SG&A expenses were flat at $339.3M compared to a year ago.
    • The company reiterated its previous full-year guidance.
    • RRD +2.4% premarket


  242. NY regulator want monitors installed at Deutsche Bank, Barclays

    Yesterday, 04:01 AM ET · DB

    • The New York Department of Financial Services wants government monitors placed in the U.S. offices of Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB) and Barclays (NYSE:BCS) as part of its investigation into the foreign-exchange market.
    • The two banks have been chosen to host monitors because data collected over the course of the probe pointed to them for having the greatest amount of potential problems.


  243. Good morning and WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!

    Nice little 1% dip triggered by the official default of Argentina early this morning, basically Europe just sold off right at the open despite more stimulus popping Shanghai up 1% (but not Hong Kong, who were flat). 

    Europe is down 0.27% in London, 1% in Germany, 0.8% in France and 1.7% in Spain and Italy but all straight down since the open so far. 

    Still, I like /TF for a bullish over the 1,130 line (testing now) and /YM at 16,700 and /ES 1,950 for bounces but VERY TIGHT STOPS if any of them fail.

    We're not down all that far and could go much lower, these are just quick bounce plays!

    Oil is $99.37 after testing $99.09 and that's a double tap at $99 from $107 so $8 means $1.50 bounces at $100.50 (weak) and $103 (strong) and I'm not saying I think we'll see $103 – just that we'd have to get that high before the weakness is washed out.  

    Meanwhile, since we did have consolidation at $103.50, let's look at the $4.50 drop and call for .90 bounces at $100 and $102 so, if $99 holds, our new channel should go from $99 to $103 with the usual .50 increments being significant.  So, let's watch $99.50 closely – if that provides resistance (since it's well below expected bounces), it's a strong indicator that we are establishing a lower channel for oil!

    The Dollar is 81.54, gold $1,296, silver $20.73, copper $3.24, nat gas $3.80 and gasoline $2.79.  Euro $1.34, Pound $1.687 and 102.78 Yen to the Dollar.  

    Hard to imagine people are surprised by Argentina's default but, coupled with Russian sanctions and Europe's anemic-looking economy – it can snowball pretty easily.  

    Overall, if Alibaba pays $10Bn for Snapchat – it's the sign of the Apocalypse anyway.  


  244. /NKD hit 15,600, by the way, that's PLENTY if you took those shorts at 15,800 ($1,000 per contract). 


  245. WFM looks like $37 – disappointing but not terrible as we took a low entry. 

    YELP boomeranged pretty fast, was much higher at the beginning of the month.

    Corporate taxes/StJ – Good comparison. 

    AMZN/StJ – It's certainly not that they do the cloud well, they are just ruining it for everyone else (providers) with their no-profit pricing.  It's not the worst thing because it forces competitors to keep innovating and running a sort of Moore's Law on price/performance over time so kind of good for consumers but it's also good to allow an industry to run with profits for just a little while so the companies with real brain-power can pump up the R&D budgets.

    Fed/StJ – As long as it's possible, they will let those notes expire but there's some "toxic assets" ($326Bn in "other" + the MBS of questionable nature) there as well that are just swept under the rug.  Here's a good set of charts illustrating the Fed Balance Sheet

    fed balance sheet

    Crimes/Diamond – That's what I love about the UK, they call all investing strategies "schemes" – much more honest.  

    Ritholtz/StJ – Remiss is right!  It's a self-reinforcing loop when low rates increase profits and lower the cost of buybacks and force people into the market.  That's all fantastic on the way up but the exact opposite happens on the way down when rates rise.  God that guy has become a sell-out!   And right after that he basically tells you to ignore that point and just focus on the Federally funded profits…  

    I don't think we have the kind of danger we had in 2008, mostly because a large part of our economy in 2008 was a massive fraud that has unwound since.  The Fed has been backfilling the hole in bank balance sheets and low interest has saved most builders/developers from bankruptcy and new bankruptcy laws have made sure the afflicted homeowners can't escape their debt obligations so all is well in 1/3 of the economy – as long as the free money keeps flowing, anyway.  

    Yawn, Futures not very bouncy at all so far.  

    Annual returns/StJ – 6.26% is just sad.  Of course, that assumes people invest in all the fad stocks along with the blue chips – THANK GOODNESS WE DON'T HAVE PEOPLE LIKE THAT HERE!  wink

    Speaking of fads, it appears TSLA has secured a stronger relationship with Panasonic (from what it SEEMS to say).  I wonder if it will have an effect?  

    Panasonic says to invest in $5 bln Tesla battery plant, coy on details


  246. Thanks for posting interview Cdt, though it took forever to download – did anyone else find that?  The problem with that studio (vs the Nasdaq) is that I have no monitor, so I have no idea what she's putting on screen and there is no table for notes either – I'm having to totally wing it!

    ABX/Burr – They're doing as well as expected, it's gold prices we need to blame, not the CEO. 

    Throttling/StJ – As a hard-core business user, I am happy to pay more for better access.  I don't see how it's possible to charge the same to my kids, who download video all day and suck up the bandwidth, as they do to a normal person.  It's unfair to regular users in the end and the same goes on the other side – it's the model that's bad in the first place, I think.  And my kids are nothing compared to some real data hogs out there.  We had a kid ripping movies that would slow down the whole block every afternoon for a while.  A lot of people wanted to "throttle" him.  

    NBL/Ricbah – With oil falling so hard, I wouldn't mess around with energy stocks since they are not priced for lower oil (see gold miners for how low prices kill them over time).  

    Kim/Burr – She had strep throat – quite a trooper actually.  


  247. Bouncing off the DMA everywhere!