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Thrilling Thursday – S&P 2,000!!! Again…

Wheeeee, what a ride!  

This is why we use hedges – they kept us from stopping out of our long positions during the dip and, since our long positions pay off in a flat or up market, anything not down is VERY profitable for our Long-Term positions, which outnumber our bearish Short-Term hedges by 10:1 in our Income Portfolio and Long-Term Portfolio.  

Markets do, indeed go up AND down on a pretty regular basis and we've made a lot of bottom calls this week, adding more long positions as we got a nice pullback.  Now we have the bounces we predicted and we'll just have to wait and see if our strong bounce lines hold up for the week.  Yesterday morning, before the Market, our 5% Rule™ predicted we'd see:

  • Dow 17,100 (weak) and 17,150 (strong) – Now 17,210
  • S&P 1,990 (weak) and 1,995 (strong) – Now 1,998
  • Nasdaq 4,525 (weak) and 4,550 (strong) – Now 4,555
  • NYSE 10,875 (weak) and 10,950 (strong) – Now 10,885
  • Russell 1,125 (weak) and 1,135 (strong) – Now 1,128

RUT WEEKLYSo we have 3 greens and two in-betweens and that's certainly enough to get us to stop being bearish but not quite enough to turn us bullish yet.  If we are holding the Strong Bounce lines on the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq, however, we could go long on the Russell, with the /TF Futures at 1,123.5 this morning or use TNA (the ultra-long Russell ETF), which closed at $68.36 yesterday and the weekly $67 calls are $1.45, with very little premium.  

As you can see from Dave Fry's Russell chart, that 1,125 line has been good support and a very clear signal to get out if it fails.  So far, it's bee a texbook bounce with 1% gains offsetting 2.5% drops and the next significant point of resistance is a 50% retrace, so we're looking to get just 0.25% higher today to continue the bullish momentum.  So far, our Futures are flat, despite Europe gaining 0.5% on more stimulus talk from Draghi (see my Tweet).

NDX WEEKLYWe tried going short earlier this morning but that's not working so far, and now we'll see if we can get any traction to the upside (if we do get over our levels, otherwise – still shorting).  Overall, we don't have any fundamental reasons to get bullish, other than MORE FREE MONEY from the ex Managing Director of Goldman Sachs International, who Forbes ranks as the 9th most powerful person in the World

Of course, just ahead of Draghi on that list is Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz Al Saud, the king of Saudi Arabia who, as Liberty Blitzkreig points out, beheads people every day and no one seems to make a fuss about it.  

While we're on the subject, I loved Info Terrorism's take on the Administration's efforts to sell the war, as well as their summary of why we're bombing Syria.  We expected all this back on 9/11, when we went with RTN as our favorite war profiteer, and I loved Jon Stewart's take on our new mess (same as the old mess) yesterday:

So, you may wonder, why would we want to go against the wishes of two of the most powerful people and short oil ($93.40), gasoline ($2.75), the Dow (17,150) and the Nikkei (16,350)?  Well, that's because, as powerful as these people may be – they are still fighting physics in trying to make the markets do things they simply shouldn't be doing.  

Oil, for example, is in a glut, not a shortage and bombing a few oil fields that are controlled by ISIS won't impact the global supply, nor will anything OPEC does at their next conference, since they are now producing just 40% of the World's oil.  

Those were the reasons that oil popped from $91.25 to $92.55 (this morning's high) but those same reasons didn't convince Brent traders to go higher and even this morning Brent is trading flat while US Oil is being manipulated higher.  We'll see how long they can get away with it but I doubt the enthusiasm will last longer than the 10:30 Natural Gas Report.  Here's a look at yesterday's Petroleum Status Report, where a 4.3Mb draw in crude was nothning more than a recording of oil that is piling up in the refineries:

It's a SCAM folks, they are importing 7 MILLION LESS barrels of oil per week than they did last year yet our stockpiles have grown by 14M barrels.  They are not producing more product so, logically, that must mean demand has dropped.  Yet prices are being pushed higher to punish the consumers with a war of convenience started by yet another version of Rent-A-Rebel, those groups that always seem to suddenly appear and cause trouble whenever oil traders, like the Koch Brothers, are facing a loss.  

Rather than fight another $3Tn war, why don't we spend $3Tn on renewable energy projects in our own country and cut our need for foreign oil to zero?  It's just 5.5Mb now so we only have to replace 25% of our consumption and we can cut 10% of auto fuel consumption by simply making sure people inflate their tires properly.  

Getting people to conserve energy used to be something the Government did – that's why the Kochs and their Heritage Foundation want the Government "off your backs".  


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  1. Good morning!  

    Gasoline (/RB) just hit $2.74 and I like them short under $2.75 per the above EIA Report but super-tight stops above.  

  2. Good Morning…


    /RB – Any thoughts on the 20-cent spread between /RBV4 and /RBX4 with gasoline futures expiration coming up next week?

    US Indices – Not sure if you've addressed this, but with end-of-quarter coming up, would you expect the indices to hold up at least until the end of the month?


  3. Durable Goods down 18.2%, as expected.  The markets pulled back a bit but this is just a move back to normal after last month's huge BA numbers.  Ex-Transports, it was a respectable 0.7% and Capital Goods, non-Defense was 0.6%, also not bad.  

    That means we should take quick profits on the index shorts and see what happens.  Oil at $93.42 and I still like it short but this bombing stuff continues so watch BNO closely as they are behind and, if they are catching up, then oil shorts are not a good idea.  Gasoline over $2.75 also a bad sign for the oil shorts (but I still like /RB short under $2.75). 

    Spread/Decad – I think /RBV4 stops trading today, so they are ramming it up to give themselves a good roll.  /RBX4 reflects the reality that gasoline cannot be sold at wholesale for $2.75 because that would be close to $4 at the pump and that's been chasing consumers away in droves all year.  

    And yes, we can certainly expect end-of-quarter window dressing into next Tuesday (30th).  

  4. From Bloomberg, Sep 25, 2014, 3:39:10 AM

    Containers sit at the Port of Qingdao, in Qingdao. Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg

    China uncovered almost $10 billion
    in fraudulent trade nationwide as part of an investigation begun
    in April last year, including many irregularities in the port of
    Qingdao, the country’s currency regulator said today.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  5. From Bloomberg, Sep 25, 2014, 4:53:14 AM

    Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) — Greater regulation of foreign-exchange markets is likely, Saxo Bank A/S Chief Executive Officer Lars Seier Christensen said, as the U.K. government said it will seek to criminalize the manipulation of seven more benchmarks in markets from foreign-exchange to gold by the year-end.
    He speaks with Anna Edwards on Bloomberg Television’s “Countdown.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    The U.K. government plans to criminalize the manipulation of seven more benchmarks in markets from foreign exchange to gold and oil as it tries to revive confidence in the integrity of London as a financial center.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  6. From Bloomberg, Sep 25, 2014, 7:34:35 AM

    U.S. stock-index futures were
    little changed, after the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed
    the most in over a month, as investors awaited data on jobless
    claims and durable-goods orders.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  7. From Bloomberg, Sep 25, 2014, 5:00:01 AM

    Billionaire Larry Ellison holds 250 million shares of Oracle Corp. as collateral, according to the company’s proxy statement released Sept. 23. That compares to 215 million shares last year and 139 million in 2012. Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg

    Billionaire Larry Ellison has
    increased the amount of Oracle Corp. (ORCL) stock pledged against
    personal indebtedness and lines of credit to $9.9 billion, or
    5.6 percent of the market capitalization of the world’s largest
    database company.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  8. Oil Lines

    R3 – 95.80
    R2 – 94.54
    R1 – 93.63
    PP – 92.37
    S1 – 91.46
    S2 – 90.20
    S3 – 89.29

  9. From Bloomberg, Sep 25, 2014, 2:16:17 AM

    Reserve Bank of Australia Governor
    Glenn Stevens signaled he’s considering steps to limit home
    loans to investors, who are distorting the housing market.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  10. From Bloomberg, Sep 25, 2014, 6:25:26 AM

    Only good policies will spur U.S. investment, not prayers.

    India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi has spent much of September persuading the leaders of the world’s biggest economies to invest in India. He succeeded in large measure with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan and President Xi Jinping of China, whose countries committed investments worth $35 billion and $20 billion, respectively. One might expect Modi to bring home an even larger haul from the U.S., the world’s largest economy, after his visit with President Barack Obama next week. In fact, while both sides will no doubt issue all sorts of grand statements about the bonds between their nations and the many areas in which they hope to cooperate, no big-ticket investment deals are in the pipeline.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  11. Now we have 17,100, 1,985, 4,075 and 1,120 – they should be bouncy and, if not – that's bad!  

  12. Dow is the laggard now, if it crosses 17,100 it's good for a new short with a tight stop above (or if any of the others get over, of course).  

    Oil $93.36 being stubborn but Brent is pulling back.  In TOS, you can use BNO.IV to track Brent.

    Silver's done after a nice pop to $17.60 – that's two mornings in a row, so we should keep an eye out for that trade now.  Gold not looking too strong at $1,212.50 with the Dollar at 85.45.  /NKD still 16,350 and they make a good short if the Dollar goes lower (or the Dow).  

  13. The prediction algorithms of the new iPhone keyboard might just be too good:

    The technology is cool (though not new—other companies have created similar keyboards before) but now it’s raising fears. A number of iPhone users have reported that QuickType is offering their own passwords as suggestions.

    Another iPhone user on the Apple support forums claimed that whenever he types in his username, QuickType will suggest that the password paired with that username be typed next.

    I use SwiftKey on my Nexus 5 and it's uncanny how it seems to read your mind and guess the next word correctly. Fortunately, predictions are turned off when you see a password field…

  14. Everything has to go right for TSLA to mitigate the risks:

  15. Even Goldman downgrades China:

    Over the long term, Goldman’s more downbeat view on Chinese growth is premised on slower labor force and demographic growth—the aftershock of China’s remarkable birthrate decline due to the one-child policy—as well as slower rates of productivity growth related to the fact that China has already closed a lot of the productivity gap with more developed countries.

    Analysts also suggest recent rates of growth might have been a bit too high, having been super-charged by excessive debt. “The Chinese economy might be running slightly above its potential level at present. This reflects the idea that the current pace of debt accumulation is unlikely to be sustainable in the long term,” Goldman analysts wrote.

    Hmmmm… where did we hear that before?

  16. Speaking of things that the Media doesn't tell you:

    How can they say that doesn't do anything bad to you?  

  17. Wow Phil – is that a hoax? I can almost feel neurons popping in my head!

  18. Good Morning!

  19. The video is such poor quality, that you can't tell if it's real. I do not believe it. 

  20. I don't know, I hope it is but it's funny either way.  I always use the speaker on the cell phone and I'm done having kids so not too worried about it in my pocket but, on the whole, I don't trust those things (or microwave ovens).  

  21. able to write some more GPRO 85 calls here for next week.  I am the total volume.  I think today is peak day.

  22. Phil – Sorry, but those alex jones articles are just an opportunity to bash this administration and scare readers into a fetal position.

    Some 'conspiracys' are best left alone…..

  23. The popcorn thing is a hoax.  It was part of a viral video marketing ploy:

  24. Phil – Few position questions

    I've been on the road for a month, so been very unfocused.  Anyway, a few positions off track (or on track if we should add).  Looking for a little quick advice.  Hold, roll, add is fine.  Not worried, just watching.

    CCJ ;  -9 Jan16 20P.  CCJ at 17.84.  Cost 2.30

    ABX; 7 of the Jan16  -17P, +15/20 bull call.  Cost 0.10.  Now mid -1.74

    TEX; 5 of the Jan16 -35P, +32/42 bull call.  Cost 0.00.  Now mid -3.22

    XCO;  2500 of the XCO Jan16 5 buywrite.  XCO took a dive of 23%.

  25. Europe went red across the board.  

    Oil back to $93 so all good on the shorts and we can re-short below $93 only now (less conviction).  

  26. GPRO heading down, that was like found money.

  27. Any play on $GPRO?

  28. Wheeee on the indexes! 

    We still have that heavy DXD bet, so I'd love to see the Dow drop 300.

    Conspiracies/1020 – A little radical but some interesting food for thought, IMO.

    Popcorn/Kinki – Aw, that's too bad, I liked that idea. 

    Off Track/Burr – Well CCJ is off because Japan has pushed back their nuke restart again.  CCJ is at $17.85 and I'd wait for 2017s to roll and I'd probably roll across to the $20 puts (providing they pay you $2+ to do it) as I still like that target.  

    • ABX is at $15.43 and you never know how low they can take gold so I'd keep an eye on the roll to the 2017 $15 puts ($2.50) for net .50, which should move in your favor over time but I wouldn't let it go past 0.75 before making the roll.  As to the spread, the $15s are still $2.35 and you can spend $1.75 to roll to the 2017 $13s ($4.10) so why not offer $1.60 and see if that fills?  
    • TEX – At $32 is not a big deal and you should watch the 2017 $30 puts ($5.40), which would cost about $1.30 for a roll and, like ABX, should move in your favor over time (because the premium on the 2016s will decay much faster than the 2017s) as to the spread, my rule of thumb is pay 0.50 per $1 to roll down if I can (assuming I still like the stock, of course) and, at the moment, the 2017 $28s are $9 and your 2016 $32s are $5.10 so $4 but the 2017 $32s are $7, so they year does cost +2 of the money.  No hurry on either.  
    • XCO – Disappointing so far at $3.84 but, if you have the play we have in the Income Portfolio, the net on that was $3.70 so not too much to do as we expected they'd take a hit as oil went lower. 

  29. GPRO/Lolo – SORRY!! I put up the wrong trade from yesterday and have deleted it but maybe too late and it still shows in the comment.  That trade was incorrect and the one I do like is:

    GPRO/Rustle – April $80 calls are $8 and I do like selling those and you can SELL the $90/75 bear put spread for $12.50 to protect yourself because, below $78.50, you can only lose up to  $2.50 on the short bear put spread but you would already have $8 from the short calls and, above $80, you have up to $12.50 of upside protection. 

    Also, see early morning discussion (bottom of yesterday's post) for more details on that strategy.  

  30. OK, now we'll see if 17,000, 1,975, 4,045 and 1,110 are bouncy.  That erased all of yesterday's BS gains – which I guess is why I referred to them as BS gains…  blush

  31. Phil/conspiracies  This 'war' is sad and makes me sick. I just wish the potus would name the countries that are funding the bad guys and teaching hate of the west. (this includes you, Saudi Arabia….)  :(

  32. My next investment is the first clothing company that will include Kevlar in the manufacture of their clothing lines. I'm afraid we have more to fear from trigger happy law enforcement than anyone overseas….

  33. And Qatar and many members of the families  that has $ 100 million apartments in London and N.Y.

  34. Today shows you what a fake yesterday's move up was

  35. 1020 / cloths

    Is already in the market, a colombian tailor, most presidents have articles of this workshop….I was trying to sell it to chinese generals uniforms but not success.

  36. Goallllllllll on oil at $93.55 (close enough).  Still BNO down 0.5% now and /CL down just 0.11% and they were up 1.5% yesterday with BNO flat so I think we may get more of a drop but back to 1x with a stop at 92.75 now.  

  37. 16,200 on /NKD now – wow, that was easy!  

    Good charts Advill:

    So we're still years away from peak production (and in 2008 they said we were long past peak production, so what do they know?)

    There's Nat gas inventory, up 97Bcf is in-line and no help for oil.  /NG is at $3.869 but not playable. 

    Gasoline another huge winner at $2.687 (/RBV4) and $2.51 on /RBX4

    VIX flying to 15.50!  

    AAPL $98.75 not helping.  

  38. Incredible day, I love the conviction shorts on oil, thanks. 

  39. On DXD in the STP, let's take 0.80 and run on 100, we were way behind on those and we should be thrilled to lighten up here.  If things break further, we can always add another hedge but we're over-hedged as the LTP is still up 18.4% ($592K) with the STP up 56% ($156K) for $748K, so we're making money on the way down, which is nice, but not the true intention.  

  40. Hi Phil DXD OCT 25 long calls up .60 and I am still down 700 odd $ and you say close it ???? Do I understand you correct? Thanks

  41. AAPL/Phil- in your opinion what are the odds that the move in Apple today is just a momentary tick down (the pause that refreshes) or a return to Sept. 2012 and the start of a lengthy downtrend . I know that no one can ever say for sure, so I am asking whether you think it 95/5 vs 50/50 for example?

  42. Nice dip today all it did cleared a lot of my short callers of the month of Oct being ITM  now OTM again sold against my long out BCS . Like a yoyo.

  43. Yodi, he is reducing by half, lightening up, not closing. 

  44. Thanks Craig, glad you understood, but did you not pay an extra 500$ to get a clear line ? (8

  45. Oil Peak production don´t exist, what we have is availabillty to different layers of oil which is reachable at different costs, but is seems that we will have actual consumption levels (excluding global warming policies) for the rest of this century.

    As a matter of fact a  new technology with just a few years and being used only in U.S created a glut , there is shale gas below Paris, Poland. Mexico has huge deposits, Russia etc…

  46. Phil / Gasoline    / RB in the middle now?

  47. CLF tanking big time today.  Any news or just going down with the market?  Thanks.

  48. Oil/Bruce – Me too!  

    DXD/STP, Yodi – We rolled down to the $24 calls for 0.25 and they just went out at 0.87.  I forget whet the old net was but I think it was 200 at 0.60 and 0.85 is our break-even on the roll but 0.60 is break-even on the old $25s too.  We had doubled down to 200 of them and now I want to stay short 100, but with a stop at 0.60 as we can then flip to another cover.  

    AAPL/Craigs – They obviously have an issue with their flagship phone so it can become an issue.  We expected AAPL bashing anyway and that's why we kept aggressive short calls sold in the Income Portfolio, where we're protecting a large position.  A move back over $100 AFTER all the dirty laundry is aired would be very bullish but I wouldn't be too surprised to see them test $97.50 again first, per what I said earlier:

    Submitted on 2014/08/21 at 2:59 pm

    AAPL/Diamond – A lot of stops are triggered on AAPL over $100 – longs taking profits, shorts capitulating.  I think they need the 200 dma to come up from $82.50 to $87.50 before they can get going again so that's +$5 and AAPL is at $100 so call it $20, which means it will take 50 days to bend the 200 dma that high but that will push the 50 dma (now $95) up to $97.50 in 25 days so AAPL may drift up around $105, then come back to $97.50 by Sept expirations and THEN it can bounce off there and have clear sailing to $120+.  How's that for a vague TA prediction?  

    The 50 dma is now $98.59, by the way but was pretty much $97.50 on the dot on expirations.  This stuff isn't that hard guys, it's just math!  

    Oil/Advill – Good point. 

    /RB/Advill – I'm done with them, easy money made, time to move on.  

    CLF/Rookie – China news (I posted earlier), they have so much iron ore that they are trying to sell it on the open market, competing with producers.  This was to be expected and has to be ridden out. 

    And what Rookie said.  

  49. Thanks Phil on DXD will stick with mine at present

  50. You're welcome, Yodi.  

    Oil is insane, now back over $93 but it's gone up too easily to $93.40 so I'd rather wait and see than risk my nice day's profits.  

  51. Phil // Hedge
    I've been recording the moves on the portfolios with different DOW moves ( -5% – +1% ) the past six months.
    On a 1% dip most of the portfolios ( around 100K ) are down 5K. When DOW is flat they are up +5k
    I haven't had a +1% recorded yet
    My feeling is I need to adjust with more hedges, as a -10% would be devastating. 
    Can you suggest a new DXD entry ( obviously not today ) that would be appropriate ?

    Nice call on XRT btw.

    Long on /TF at 1100 ?

  52. I get stuck in conference calls the all morning and come back to this funny market!

    At least I was able to entertain myself during the calls:

  53. Phil,

    AH strategy/execution question re GPRO. Would you attempt executing both short calls and bear put spread simultaneously as part of a multi-leg trade?  The bid-asked spread prices are wide which would make stops on the short calls very dicey in terms of execution costs if one were to sell the short calls first (and enter a protective stop on the sht clls) and then wait for a price drop to enter the bear spread?

    Sure did look like  basing action/support followed by short covering starting around @ 11:30. I was tempted to sell some calls but the .50 b/a spread gave me pause. No rush – when you have time.


  54. advill/clothing  Very Cool!  A few color choices and some silk screening and you have a modern day fashion statement!  :)

  55. Hedge/Wombat – It depends what you want to guard against.  DXD was more like a bet but it came after we got burned on several other hedges (meaning the market went up and up against us) so we plowed all the remaining cash into a huge DXD bet that we would be able to cash out part of on a dip very quickly (as we did today) and recover some of our losses.  

    In the STP, we still have 100 of the DXDs and the GMCR puts and the bearish XRT spread and the BIDU put spread and a lot of short FAS calls and a bearish TSLA spread.  If we're going to add something, it will be whichever index has fallen the least so far (still the Dow, I think) with something aggressive but, since we already have 100 DXD $24 longs we bought for about 0.85 and DXD is at $24.61, we do have some pretty good coverage.  

    Yes to long on /TF at 1,100, it's a nice bounce line but I only expect a weak one and then more downside.  

    $25KP – We're up 16% again so let's take $4 and run on the XLE puts.  If the market does collapse, GMCR should be good to us.

    STP – Let's buy back the 15 FAS Oct $105 short calls we sold for $7.50 at $2.50.  We sold those to get out of a previous jam and now we're out so why look a gift horse in the mouth?  

    Income Portfolio:  Let's sell 50 ARO 2017 $3 putsfor $1.  Lots of other bullish adjustments I'd like to make but let's see how the week goes.  

    LTP – Time to sell AAPL puts again as the 2017 $80 puts can be sold for $8.30 and you KNOW we want to own AAPL at net $71.70!  Just 10 though, just in case…  Otherwise, like the Income Portfolio, let's see how things shake out.  

  56. stjean/iPhone6  Thanks for the LOL!  I have my S5 in an Otter 'Chamber' and I still don't place it in my back pocket or use it when changing a tire…..

  57. 1020/ clothes


    They create suits and blazers etc, problem is that daily use is hard,  after all is a ballistic fiber so is  not comfortable to wear, but many autocrats use it  when in public, one of the most used is the blanket, it support R-15 shoots, usually a bodyguard carries it near and when something happens  he covers the man with it.

    If former president  Anwar Saddat  could had one when he was attacked perhaps could survive and Middle East History be different.

  58. Phil // Understood
    I'm rather jealous that the newcomers have a coherent structure with the three portfolios off setting. For myself, I have one account and I just try to balance it as well as possible.
    So, you explained the move on the DXD as the laggard, but not an aggressive new entry ( unless you were referring the naked calls ) Can you redo a new entry when the smoke clears and I can rebalance ?

    >>whichever index has fallen the least so far (still the Dow, I think) with something aggressive but, since we already have 100 DXD $24 longs we bought for about 0.85 and DXD is at $24.61, we do have some pretty good coverage.  

  59. p.s. also I don't have a record of the standing XCO play. Mine is a mess – I have covered calls, bull spreads, naked calls, short puts – yikes. Would love to move all of these to the same play. 

  60. GPRO/8800 – Good question.  The first thing you do is look at GRPO and decide what its range is.  

    Oops, it doesn't have one!  So, looking at the price of April $90 puts, they range $30.70/31.50 and the last sale was at $32 at 11 am.  On the April $75 puts, they range $19.30/20.50 and the last sale was $22 at 9am.  So the spread has narrowed since yesterday and is less attractive.  The last sale on the $80 calls was $8 at 11.   So I think, for this one, I'd offer to sell the $8s for $8.50 and also offer to sell the spread for $11.50 and, if either side fills, we can then decide what to do with the other.  It's risky to play a momentum trade but you could offer $31 to sell the $90 puts and, if those fill, try to buy the $75s for $19 or less but it's tricky and I'd rather not have the trade at all than pay an extra $1.  

    iPhones/1020 – I've had them since they first came out and, so far, no breaks with one nasty drop that I can't believe didn't break it (outside on concrete).  Jackie has had two screen replacements and Maddie one – Tina none as well.  None of our iPads have broken yet.  I don't use a case myself but I do make the girls use one.  At the mall, a kiosk does new screens for $100, AAPL charges $150 last I remember – we use the kiosk and he also can give you cool colors if you want (Jackie did).  

    Blanket/Advill – That's a good idea.  

    DXD/Wombat – I mean the calls we have, not a spread or other new trade we may decide to use.  I'm pretty sure we bounce up into the weekend, maybe we'll find a good new hedge tomorrow.  

    XCO is in the Income Portfolio, we bought 5,000 for $5, now $3.89 and we sold the 2016 $5 puts and calls for $2.30 for net $2.70/3.85 on a buy/wright. 

  61. ……………….sh*   / CL over 93 again……

  62. Don't just look at /CL.  /CL is $93.21 and the Dollar is 85.36, which is a bit lower than before so a bit of support for oil there.  BUT, BNO is $38.72 so that's off the lows but the high for them was $38.90 but Europe is closed and no one is trading it now.  Then we have the indexes and they are at the lows so WTF is oil so happy about?  That means I'd look to short here ($93.21 now) up to $93.30 and probably DD there and then out at $93.35+ and back in below $93.25 or start again at $93.45 but I can only afford to lose $390 or it will mess up my nice gains for the day.  

    Also, keep in mind the NYMEX closes at 2:35 and, like yesterday, they may look to run it up into that so, on the whole, I'm not too keen on playing at the moment.

    BABA/Pstas – I'll stick with YHOO, thanks.  

  63. Phil // DXD
    Cool, I'll look out for it and apply on a bounce.
    BTW, I had a semi-rambling post last night when safari crashed. I was just about to ControlC when *pop*
    Anywho, I had a rare chance to go back and read many of the snippets I've collected, as well as the full day yesterday. I noticed some of the newbies and you answering their questions. It struck me how magnanimous you are. I think it's a testament that you really do what you love. 
    I remember we got off to a rocky start, and the guys gave me a lot of encouragement. You're a tough love guy – but totally worth.
    Don't want to blow sunshine up your arse. Just wanted to let you know that the effort you put into the site gets me up in the morning.
    Thats a long CA way of sayin 'thanks'

  64. 1020 

    I have an Otter case on my I phone, also

    I dropped it about 6 feet in the Hilton bathroom onto a ceramic floor and no problems

    And many other drops

    I think Otter is the best

  65. Phil,

    Thanks re GPRO. Digesting guidance.

  66. Another good chart for the archive Phil:

    Noticed that it started around 1980 – coincidence?

  67. Phil/EDZ

    Can you comment on my thought process below?

    I have a Jan 35/Oct 42 call spread (originally an Oct 35/42, rolled the 35's out to Jan).  The October 42's are now only .15, up 90%.  So, I was thinking to do the following now:

    Buy back the October 42's for .15

    Roll the Jan 35's (now 3.10) down to 30 and sell the Jan 37's (the 30/37 spread will cost about 2.55 now).  That would put me in a $7 spread thats about $3 in the money with EDZ now at $33.24.


  68. good morning!

  69. Are u worried about iphone6 bending could take the stock down?  Check the previous snafus with the iPhone releases and see where apple is today.  Not sue if this bending is any different than the previous incidents.

  70. Hi Phil. Best wishes for the New Year.  What is your reasoning for selling the 2017 AAPL puts rather than 2016?  Thanks.

  71. Here some beginners luck Entered /CL and got 20$ I started to short /CL and it went against me but on the way up I shorted another one after the other up to 5x so before I was called for dinner I left with -1020.00$ 

    My relatives would not understand that I could not come because I entered these trades so I left it. Returning after 1 1/2 I looked at the P/L of the day and it clocked up 1750.00 BUT as I still have not the confidence it was just papertrading. !!!!!! 

  72. jeffdoc

    EDZ you did not tell what you paid for the 35 call But I would let the 42 Oct expire and if you made a profit on the 35 c close it Than you look for an other spread. I prefer to buy a call well ITM and the caller close to ATM or OTM. 

  73. Anyone identify a good earnings trade for BBRY.  They are not competing with Apple or Samsung and continue to rely on their software as the selling point.  I am not aware of anyone using a Blackberry any more.  That is a decrease from over 50% of our friends/coworkers just 2 years ago. 

  74. Thanks Yodi

    I paid $3 for the jan 35, I don't recall how much the roll to Jan from October cost me, but I doubt it's profitable at this point. I'm just trying to figure out if I should again try to improve my position or leave the 35 as is. I could let the 42 expire  and sell a Jan something after that.  

  75. phil i feel like we touched on this topic awhile back .. but i'm curious what your thoughts (anyone else please chime in too) are on publicly financed pro sports stadiums? 

    the biggest winners are clearly the owners and the leagues .. and certain segments of the local business community will obviously benefit as well .. but on balance is it generally a win for the community? 

    i feel like the benefits are over stated and the actual result of a team that didn't get a new stadium deal leaving would be far less devastating (for most) than is believed. 

  76. Last time Phil gave the tug boat vs the ship example but the Russell looks bad from any angle. IWM 111.4 didn't even make a stutter today and I am questioning first will 108 10% down from the double top hold and second if it doesn't will the tug boats win and take the fliers with them? It may be clear by Tuesday, and the wise thing may be wait on your long dreams.

  77. Jeffdoc I trust you using the spread as a hedge betting against the market going up Like TZA as long as you lose you making a profit in your port. Rolling to Apr cost you about .90 and you buy 3 month more of protection. Selling a new April caller will just reduce the cost of your 35c roll. An new 42 caller will put actually 3.00 -.90 = 2.10 in your pocket

  78. ~~toepull80
    September 25th, 2014 at 1:57 pm | Permalink Tweet thisIgnore this user 
    phil i feel like we touched on this topic awhile back .. but i'm curious what your thoughts (anyone else please chime in too) are on publicly financed pro sports stadiums?

    I feel strongly that it should not because it is totally unfair for people that either could never afford a ticket to go to a game or many that have no interest.

  79. TASR is a bright spot. And CIM holding up well.

  80. DECK up .90 today unreal

  81. GPRO/ Phil … I noticed your suggestion to cover the naked $80 calls by selling a Bull Put spread (90/75) .. Any particular reason for this instead of the usual cover which seems to be buying the out of the money call spread .. Maybe it is same difference?? Thanks. 

  82. Oil plunging again, failing $92.50.  

    Thanks Wombat, it's been a great journey with you as well. There's nothing that makes me happier than working with someone to help them "get it", though there are the ups and downs and I know I'm a hard-ass sometimes but, as you say, I do it out of love.  heart

    You're welcome 8800.  It's not the guidance with them, it's the fact that Polaroid and now HTC is coming out with something.  Realistically, it's a sports camera with a mount – really not that amazing.  Not the kind of moat the deserves a forward p/e of about 80. 

    Distribution/StJ – Is it just me or do you also get angry all over again whenever you see one of these charts?

    EDZ/Jeff – Very good adjustment.  Not sure what you spent originally but I'd assume $3ish, so net $3.15ish and you then turn your naked Jan $35s into a $30/37 spread and get a small refund.  What's not to like.  If the price of the Jan $30s (now $5.20) drops to the net of the spread ($3.15ish), then you already know how to roll out of that.  Actually, I must be missing the cost of the Oct $35 to Jan $35 roll, which is currently $2 – just make sure you know what your nets are to be sure it makes sense. 

    Snafus/Rookie – That's funny, I forgot all about maps.  I like the maps now.  Still, if they are forced to do a 6+ recall, that's a multi-billion dollar mistake.  Perhaps a vendor missed the specs and it will be resolved but, if the whole concept turns out to be bad or it becomes considered a girl's phone (for purses only), then projections change and you can probably lop 10% off AAPL down the road (though they should be over $105 so $95 would still be the fair price.  

    Thanks Taihu.  AAPL 2016 $80 putss are just $5 and the 2017s are $8.30 so $3.30 for the extra year is fair enough and, if we just sell the $80 puts for $5 and AAPL is at $115 in 2016, then we collect our $5 but we're not going to get $3.30 for selling more $80 puts, right?  So, rather than sell the $80 puts and then the $90 puts to get a combined $10, I think it's nicer and safer to just sell the $80 puts now for $8.30.  When looking for strikes, I take expected stress levels into account – it's certainly $1.70 more relaxing to go with the long play one time.  

    Oil Futures/Yodi – Well, when you walk away, it could just as quickly go the other way on you.  Took me a lot of $2,000 dinners to figure that out!

    BBRY/Options – I think the expectations for them are so low (losing 0.16, on the way to losing 0.60 for the year) that it won't be hard to surprise to the upside.  Outlook matters more than earnings for them but I don't like them, they are just a dead company burning off their cash trying not to be as dead.  In 2012 they sold $18Bn, $11Bn in 2013 and $6Bn in 2014 (year ends in Q1) so your observations are right on.  For earnings however, there's just no way to guess what they'll do.  

    Stadiums/Toe – It's a bailout for the Billionaire owners of the teams.  Once upon a time, you could have made the argument that a ballpark was important to a community but that was when people would walk to games or take public transport and there would be a carnival of stores that did a thriving business all around the stadium and that money went back to the community and created jobs.  

    Now a stadium is no different that a WMT because the money isn't local, the players don't live in the community – essentially it just sucks up the money from the fans and puts it into rich people's pockets and, even worse, they force the community to pay for it!  That's just crazy.  Not only that but because the team and their cable channel suck up all the advertising money, they local papers, TV and radio end up dying out as well.  They just plopped a hockey stadium in the middle of Newark – it's done NOTHING at all for the area around it.  It's just a gigantic con that the Billionaire owners run on the local population – they have to put their stadium somewhere and they NEED paying customers so, when a city like NY has to make concessions to have a team, that's completely insane.  

  83. Surprised NFLX and TSLA are holding up this well.

  84. and part of the reason for the big swings yesterday and today:

    "Twenty percent of Wall Street is out for the holiday. It doesn't take much to move it," said one stock trader. "It's kind of an inverse of what we did yesterday." Many trading desks were lightly staffed due to the Jewish holiday.

  85. Phil Oil futures That is just the difference between paper and real trading On paper it seems one has a lot more guts. I don't know if this kind of trading is for me.

  86. GMCR puts – Would it make sense to sell half here and possibly reload later?

  87. Phil

    Just spent the day trying any medical alternative. It is a minimally invasive surgery than insurance pays 80% but the kicker is it is at an institute not a hospital so no pay the $18,900 cost, 20% of surgeon fees plus travel or no way will this happen. Called 3 pain clinics and all 3 will only do injections that didn't work, they can't, it isn't swelling, check the screws at the fund site.

  88. Anger / Phil – I guess posting these charts is somewhat of a release… I don't know if it's anger or frustration at the sight of so many people being taken advantage of and accepting their fate like sheep. Or worse, facilitating it through their votes.

  89. And BTW Phil, no wonder the GOP wanted to get rid of Clinton so badly, he did start bending the trend back… Thankfully we had a compassionate conservative quickly back in charge after that.

  90. AAPL "bending" below its 50 DMA for the first time since back in April. 

  91. Phil // AAPL
    Since the VIX is so hugh, looking at some AAPL short puts but I can't find anything really efficient.
    The Jan17 $80's are $8.40 but take 4K in buying power to make 5K.
    Do you see anything else ?

    BTW Jan16 $90 /100 Bull call ( $4.50 )

  92. stjean anger release

    Try finding some charts that illustrate what medicine in America is about. All I find is everything is wonderful for you because you have insurance. Please post something I am not angry just frustrated in ever road is a dead end. And the rich want taxes to buy them stadiums.

  93. Inflation expectations diving again:

    Commodities prices at the source it seems – ags, metals, energy all at lows.

  94. Wombat that 4K buying power gives you 4.4 % per Month nothing to sneeze at

  95. Quote of the day – this one from one of Albo's favorite!

    “If every stock you own is on the new high list, you’re a momentum guy. If every stock you own is on the new low list, you’re out of business.” – Leon Cooperman

  96. Yodi // AAPL
    How do you gauge that ? I usually look for at least x2 on my buying power.
    Is that insane ?

  97. wombat

    A good margin buying account allows 4X.

  98. Phil your thoughts I hold the 40/50  Jan15 BCS on C  brings 9$ to close what would you do be greedy?

  99. And averaging down is actually statistically dangerous it seems and does require some careful analysis:

    Using a universe of Russell 3000 companies since 1980, roughly 40% of all stocks have suffered a permanent 70%+ decline from their peak value. Looking at the table below, we see that nearly sixty percent of Tech companies have had a catastrophic loss, which they define as “a 70% decline from peak value with minimal recovery.”

    Averaging down in a losing stock sounds like a great strategy in theory. And it is, assuming you have a good idea about the future prospects of the business in question and are fairly certain the market is undervaluing the company. Stating the obvious, this is not an easy task.

    dont com back

  100.  Phil /AAPL – can you suggest a BCS to go along with selling the AAPL 2017 $80 puts. Thanks 

  101. Russell/Shadow – If 10% fails to hold, almost certain to go to -12.5%, possibly much lower.  That would be a bad break – especially if confirmed by the NYSE but we're not there yet.

    GPRO/DM – Sure, see my comments early this morning on the subject – to you, in fact!  

    Wow, I just realized Cramer doesn't archive his clips anymore.  So sad because I was going to make fun of his idiotic bullish call on Tuesday, or yesterday…  I guess he's gotten caught too many times now so now they just have "remixes" of his show but the funny thing is the remix from Tuesday has now changed and now no longer has the bullish market call it had yesterday.  Very 1984…

    Swings/Rustle – Oh sure, blame the Jews!  cool

    'Futures/Yodi – I like it but I like it the same way I like playing craps – it's a diversion while I wait to make real money playing poker.  With Futures, it's just a fun way to play my short-term hunches while waiting for opportunities to tend to my long-term positions.  

    OK Shadow.  Attn folks, Shadow says he needs $18,900 to get get his surgery.  Please donate what you can to the Shadow Fund – thanks.  

    Frustration/StJ – What gets me is how they get so many people to vote against their own long-term interests.  I suppose it's the same as any high-pressure sales technique – if your product sucks, just find the right buttons to push and jam it down your customer's throats. 

    Meet The Man Who Told The GOP How To Destroy America’s Middle Class

    VIX/Wombat – It does take a little time for it to start changing option prices noticeably.  I'd wait a bit and see if they give us better prices.  If not, then the short sale is safer.  

    Yodi makes a good point with 4.4% per month – jeez, what does it take to make people happy?  All he's saying is making $5K on $4K margin is 125% divided by 28 months or whatever is 4.4% per month.  Sure beats the bank!  This is how we, the investing class, are able to greatly benefit from the trillions that are being used to prop up the markets.  We can make an investment like that with far more confidence than we should be able to in a normal market, where 20% corrections would be a reality over any two-year period that would make the short puts less palatable.  

    C/Yodi – If these levels fail, I'd be super-worried about financials next week.  I'd take that money and run. 

    Averaging down/StJ – Well sure, doing it without regard for whether or not the company is actually a good investment is madness.  That's why I prefer blue-chips in the first place.  

    AAPL/Pfehlm – I wouldn't do both at once right now.  If AAPL goes higher, there will be little penalty for waiting and buying maybe the $100/115 bull call spread but, if AAPL goes lower, you'll get a much better price on a $90/105 spread.  No reason to guess now, I like the short puts (1/2 sale to start) just in case AAPL shoots up but, if it doesn't, I'll be happy to DD or roll the puts and add a nice, cheap Bull Call Spread.  

  102. Phil Thanks Just the bastards dorping the price on C  from 9 to 8.80 to 8.65 ect the normal game 

  103. Phil

    $18,900 is just the facility fee! Likely over $25K. I actually think going to PA would be less but they won't talk prices, the nice lady said no insurance pays the $18.9K and I would be responcible for all of that. The other fees are basically as much as they can get like everywhere else.

  104. GPRO/Phil .. Oops missed that .. Thanks 

  105. Meanwhile, yuch to this market!  

    LTP took a big hit, now 18.2% at $591K.  STP up 60.1% at $160K so $751K is yet another new high, though now we've leaned a bit less bearish so we need to be very careful.  

    $25KP is $29,285 (17.1%), Butterfly Portfolio 19.1% (yawn) and Income Portfolio looking awful at 2.5%, mostly because we sold so much premium (it's $495,000 in cash) and the rising VIX is jacking up the price of all the long puts and calls we've sold.  Ideally, we are now in a position to use all that cash to add to the positions we still like, especially converting some dividend-payers to stock like RIG.

    Actually RIG is a good example.  We bought 10 2016 $35/45 bull call spreads for $4 and sold the $35 puts for $5 for a net $1 credit.  RIG is now $32.55 with a $3 dividend.  The $35/45 spread is now $1.50 so a $2.50 loss there but the stock is down $7.50 from $40 when we bought the spread in March so we're $5 better off than if we had bought the stock at the time.  The reason we DIDN'T buy the stock was because it wasn't on sale – so we bought the spread IN CASE it went up but, now that it's down, we're excited about owning the stock.  

    So we buy back the spread, buy RIG for $32.55 and sell the 2016 $30 calls for $5.50 and that makes our net on the play the $2.50 we lost on the spread + $32.55 for the stock less the $5 we sold the $35 puts for and the $5.50 we sold the $30 calls for and that gives us net $21.55/28.28 on the buy/write with a $3 dividend now coming to us for 14% annual interest.  When 2017 comes out, we can roll the 2016 $35 puts at least $2.50 lower even.  Not bad for a position we entered when the stock was $40 that went 20% against us, right?  

    Had we just gone out and bought RIG, we would have spent $40,000 for 1,000 shares.  At this pace, we'll likely end up with 2,000 shares for less than $50,000 when we do our next set of put and call sales.  

    This is the thing you have to get used to – understanding that these positions are just part one in a long-range plan that will play out over the next decade.  Already it's obvious how great it is to collect a 14% dividend (assuming it continues) but think what happens if we can reduce the basis by 25% in 2019 and 2021 and we end up with 4,000 shares at net $15 collecting a $3 dividend (20%).  THAT's our real retirement goal!  

    Games/Yodi – Those bastards

    $25K/Shadow – Well, let's work on $18.9K and go from there…

    No worries DM.  

  106. 25K I second that

  107. Phil

    Thanks! I tried to get stjean to find something that exposes the medical sham, nobody believes it  until they are stuck in the middle. Those rich guys give nothing and greed has no top. Believe me I have been told to go here there and everywhere by at least a dozen people that say they know some particular place helps. Every one wants donations and none have a single patient helped. That is why no one gives anymore unless they know exactly where it is going. The biggest laugh was ask all the ceos, like they have a contact anything!

  108. $AAPL - Market Chatter: Apple Sued For Violating 13 SanDisk Patents Now Owned by Longitude Licensing and Longitude Flash Memory Systems

  109. Apple's been melting down bit by bit all day, maybe that's been pushing it down.  By Xmas no one will care about bendy phones, I'm wagering.  

  110. Sham/Shadow – What aspect of the medical sham are you trying to find information on?  I became disgusted with the system when my Dad came down with cancer and was turned into an ATM by the doctors and hospitals who ran up incredible bills every month when, in fact, there was nothing they could do to help him.  If they can't fix Steve Jobs they can't fix my Dad 10 years earlier.  It's nothing more than a profit-making enterprise and, once you become sick, you become a profit center for them – until you run out of money, then they want nothing to do with you.  

    AAPL/Lolo – Interesting how all this news hits them one after the other, isn't it?  Good timing too, knocking them down below $98 into the close.  That's pegging /NQ to 4,000 for a HORRIBLE finish (down 2.1%).

  111. ZXZ AAPL

    Bendy phones won't matter much but they have issues.

  112. LOL, after all that drama, oil is $92.50 again. 

    VIX 15.91 – finally.  

  113. Phil sham

    It is the everything is available but only if your rich. I would bet my last $10 I have been rapped for more than your dad. Medical bills way over $1 million, last year 250K for us. I am wiped out and all I get is if you pay this and the numbers are like a TSLA or 5 of them. Only a few can get the money and most of what I spent got nothing at all.

  114. STJ – You're right, Mr. Cooperman is one of my favorite gurus. :-)

  115. Wow, yesterday was a really a BS day. But then again, every day is a BS day anyway.

    In any case, the new year is not starting well! I wonder if analysts will revise their predictions for the indices for 5775!

  116. I try to pay attention Albo!

  117. Here's where the 5% Rule's Big Chart comes in handy.  Earlier I said the Dow was the laggard but it's not, it should have been much higher (based on where the others were) – it's the Nasdaq that went crazy and has the most to come down, followed by the S&P.  So, back to SQQQ!  

  118. From Bloomberg, Sep 25, 2014, 4:07:30 PM

    Medics carry a Nigerian patient suspected of being infected with the Ebola virus, during his transfer to another hospital in Istanbul, Turkey on Sept. 25, 2014. Photographer: Metin Pala/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

    The calls started coming in August to the office of GlaxoSmithKline Plc (GSK) Chief Executive Officer Andrew Witty from the head of the World Health Organization, Margaret Chan. The Ebola outbreak was raging out of control and Chan needed the drugmaker’s vaccine as quickly as possible.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  119. Watch this video at

    IFixit Tears Down the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus

    Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) — IFixit CEO and Co-Founder Kyle Wiens, discusses taking apart the new iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus. Bloomberg’s Tim Higgins and Cory Johnson also speak and discuss Apple’s “bendgate” and flawed iOS 8 update on “Bloomberg West.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  120. Watch this video at

    Italian PM Renzi: We Must Absolutely Change Italy

    Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) — Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi discusses reforms he wants to implement and bringing change to the whole of Europe. He speaks with Erik Schatzker on Bloomberg Television’s “Market Makers.” (Source: Bloomberg)

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  121. From Bloomberg, Sep 25, 2014, 3:35:58 PM

    Apple Inc. iPhone 6 smartphones stand on display during the sales launch of the latest Apple Inc. iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus devices. Photographer: Krisztian Bocsi/Bloomberg

    Apple Inc. (AAPL) defended itself against complaints about the malleability of its new iPhones, saying that any bending of the devices is “extremely rare” and that the smartphones are constructed to the highest of standards.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  122. From Bloomberg, Sep 25, 2014, 2:02:12 PM

    The 25 largest U.S. public pensions
    face about $2 trillion in unfunded liabilities, showing that
    investment returns can’t keep up with ballooning obligations,
    according to Moody’s Investors Service.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  123. From Bloomberg, Sep 25, 2014, 4:39:19 PM

    Walt Disney Co. (DIS) has added social-media features to its Watch ABC app to capitalize on the growing
    number of consumers who multitask while watching TV.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  124. From Bloomberg, Sep 25, 2014, 3:49:28 PM

    The Treasury’s auction of $93
    billion in notes this week attracted the least demand at sales
    of the series since June as investors have added to bets the
    Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next year.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  125. From Bloomberg, Sep 25, 2014, 3:21:15 PM

    The Obama administration said it
    hasn’t confirmed a plot against U.S. and French subways that
    Iraqi Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi said Islamic State
    extremists captured in Iraq have been planning.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  126. From Bloomberg, Sep 25, 2014, 8:28:06 AM

    Steel production takes place at facilities in Shanghai, China. The industry expanded over the past decade to provide metal for new buildings, cars and appliances as China’s economy grew at a double-digit rate as recently as 2010. Photographer: Doug Kanter/Bloomberg

    Tangshan Donghua Steel Enterprise
    Group Co. in China was so eager for new customers overseas that
    it turned to cold-calling manufacturers and tried hawking metal
    on the e-commerce website run by Alibaba Group Holdings Ltd.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  127. From Bloomberg, Sep 25, 2014, 2:50:36 PM

    Financial-market participants are
    in closer agreement about where the Federal Reserve will steer
    interest rates than the central bank’s own policy makers,
    according to a study by the New York Fed.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  128. CNN reporters interviewing their reporters in the field:  An odd tic has permeated these broadcasts.  When the faceless CNN moderator speaks to their on-camera reporter, no matter what the moderator begins to say, the field reporter immediately commences to nod his or her head before one complete sentence is uttered:  "So, Frank, how many of the jellybean-shaped UFOs reported to be flying overhead at treetop level playing Metallica tunes have you actually seen today?" while the reporter emphatically nods his head in agreement, then goes on to say, "Well, Amanda, that's the dumbest thing I've heard in a long time, not a single one, now that you mention it."  Curious.

  129. From Bloomberg, Sep 25, 2014, 7:10:27 PM

    New Zealand stocks fell and Asian
    equity-index futures retreated in most recent trading after the
    Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped the most in almost two
    months and Apple Inc. plunged. The dollar held advances that
    took it to a four-year high yesterday and bonds rallied.

    To read the entire article, go to

    Sent from the Bloomberg iPad application. Download the free application at

  130. From Bloomberg, Sep 25, 2014, 7:29:36 PM

    Short sellers are making their
    first bets on a retreat in Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA) a week
    after the company priced the world’s biggest-ever initial public

    To read the entire article, go to

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  131. From Bloomberg, Sep 25, 2014, 5:32:36 PM

    Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) — President Barack Obama and Attorney General Eric Holder speak at the White House about Holder’s decision to resign from his post after more than five years at the Justice Department.
    Holder plans to stay in the job until a successor, who has yet to be named, is confirmed by the Senate. He is the first black attorney general and the fourth-longest serving in U.S. history. (Source: Bloomberg)

    The betting in Washington on when Attorney General Eric Holder would step down may have started just weeks after he was sworn in, when he said in a speech that the U.S. is “essentially a nation of cowards” that fears frank discussion of race.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  132. From Bloomberg, Sep 25, 2014, 2:38:41 PM

    An Iraqi envoy conveyed a U.S.
    message to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad last week that
    airstrikes against Islamic State extremists in Syria wouldn’t be
    directed against his regime, Iraq’s prime minister said.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  133. From Bloomberg, Sep 25, 2014, 5:00:00 PM

    A model of an MBT-3000 Main Battle Tank stands in front of a demonstration screen at the China North Industries Group Corp. (Norinco) trade stand during the Africa Aerospace & Defence Show at the Waterkloof Air Force Base in Pretoria, South Africa, on Sept. 18, 2014. Photographer: Dean Hutton/Bloomberg

    At the Africa Aerospace and Defence Expo earlier this this month, weapons buyers from across the continent descended on Air Force Base Waterkloof in the South African capital Pretoria for a bit of shopping.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  134. From Bloomberg, Sep 25, 2014, 5:00:01 PM

    The day trader known as CIS. He traded 1.7 trillion yen — roughly $17 billion — worth of Japanese equities in 2013, and says he had an after-tax profit of 6 billion yen. Photographer: Shiho Fukada/Bloomberg Markets.

    It was six minutes after the opening bell on Feb. 4, and dozens of big-name stocks were still untraded in Tokyo. Telecommunications giant SoftBank Corp. (9984) was among those that hadn’t budged. The offer price fell 5 percent, then more, and still there were no takers.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  135. From Bloomberg, Sep 25, 2014, 6:32:31 AM

    Organizers of Hong Kong’s Occupy
    Central with Love and Peace
    movement said they expect 10,000
    people to join a rally in the business district to demand
    broader voting rights in the city.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  136. From Bloomberg, Sep 25, 2014, 7:01:00 PM

    A nuclear power station at Kudankulam is seen from Tsunami Nagar, India. India plans six new units that would boost fission power output by 81 percent by 2030. Photographer: Adeel Halim/Bloomberg

    Three years after Japan closed all of its nuclear plants in the wake of the Fukushima meltdown and Germany shut its industry, developing countries are leading the biggest construction boom in more than two decades.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  137. From Bloomberg, Sep 25, 2014, 6:22:10 PM

    General Motors Co. (GM), five years after emerging from a government-backed bankruptcy, was returned to investment grade by Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  138. From Bloomberg, Sep 25, 2014, 4:24:06 PM

    Ras Baraka, Mayor of Newark, attends The Brooklyn Tribute to Amiri Baraka at Brooklyn Academy of Music in New York City, on May 17, 2014. Photographer: Stephen Lovekin/Getty Images for Brooklyn Academy of Music

    Newark Mayor Ras Baraka took over
    New Jersey’s largest city in July promising a new direction
    after seven years of social-media darling Cory Booker, a local
    approach that he said would better connect government to
    residents and rebuild neighborhoods.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  139. From Bloomberg, Sep 25, 2014, 12:00:01 AM

    The first bitcoin users were mostly investors seeking to profit from the currency’s wild swings, libertarians drawn to the freedom from government control and tech geeks who deem paper money and credit cards antiquated. Photographer: Karen Bleier/AFP via Getty Images

    Earlier this year, Mary Fons joined the Bitcoin Economy. She uses the digital currency to buy gift cards and office supplies. Her partner reimburses Fons with bitcoin for his portion of the rent.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  140. From Bloomberg, Sep 25, 2014, 7:36:00 PM

    Japan’s inflation slowed more than expected in August, highlighting the risks facing Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda in his push for prices to rise 2 percent.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  141. From Bloomberg, Sep 25, 2014, 7:00:01 PM

    The easing of tensions in Ukraine
    will offer little respite to Russia as the lowest oil prices in
    more than two years threaten to tilt the $2 trillion economy
    toward recession, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts.

    To read the entire article, go to

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  142. From Bloomberg, Sep 25, 2014, 9:44:38 AM

    Happy New Year! I am out atoning for my sins — of which there are many — but I still managed to put together these morning reads for you:

    To read the entire article, go to

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  143. 8 Stunning Images That Show How Much Natural Resources Are Mined Each Year

  144. Why Blackrock (And Every Other Bondholder) Is Freaking Out (In 1 Simple Chart)

  145. Three Girls Won The Google Science Fair With A Bacteria-Based Plan To Solve The Food Crisis

  146. Lower crude oil prices, sliding autumn demand could send gas below $3 a gallon in many states

  147. Bread, Circuses, & Bombs – Decline Of The American Empire

  148. European demand, higher prices drive Nike’s profit beat

  149. NYU Professor: The Digital Age Is Destroying The US Middle Class And There’s Little Hope For Reversing The Cycle

  150. Will a Tax on Ultra-Expensive Second Homes Destroy New York’s Real Estate Market?

  151. deno

    Your link is hacked!

  152. Phil I must respectfully disagree with your comments about medicine. I do believe that there are wonderful doctors out there who care deeply about their patients and will be there for them until there is nothing further they can do. The problem is first and foremost, the insurance companies and their ability to control`

  153. Craigsa620

    Perfect and we are the few that know doctors care but they can't work free. Bottom lines is real care is for the rich. Insurance is the big scam! And the idiots believe the internet is not controlled but I had to correct these 3 statements 5 times and it may be changed again when I click submit only to make me sound stupid. Proofed by sender twice! Send.

  154. "If there’s one basic principle, he says—repeatedly and slowly, as if instructing a child—it is this: “Buy stocks that are being bought, and sell stocks that are being sold.” — Japanese day trader, 'CIS.'

  155. Phil I must respectfully disagree with your comments about medicine. I do believe that there are wonderful doctors out there who care deeply about their patients and will be there for them until there is nothing further they can do.

    The problem is first and foremost, the insurance companies and their ability to control the care you receive because they get to dictate care decisions based money. This goes back to the deregulation started by Ronnie Raygun back when he put all of the people who had spent their lives in institutions on the street. That is when homelessness first became a huge problem as well.

    Now they only offer policies with big copays and huge deductibles, so that even if you have insurance, you still get hit with a huge bill. Up until a few years ago policies could be found that paid 100% of costs and smaller deductibles.

    I always had this as my company policy was to provide the best insurance we could get for our employees as a way to get good people for a bit less salary. The HMO revolution changed that and suddenly doctors had to get approval to treat patients and costs became a major factor in care decisions. Around 2005 they stopped offering those low deductible no copay policies altogether, so I had to get a policy with $5000 deductible limit and 20% copays. So people like me who had never worried when we needed care because the plan paid everything, suddenly were faced with a new reality if they became self employed.

    An example, before  Obamacare, we had that family policy with a 20% copay, which had never really been an issue because we had been healthy. My son needed eye surgery to correct a condition that caused his retinas to tear and detach easily. They used all kinds of fancy lasers and so forth to fix his eye. The way they did it was amazing using some sort of band to wrap around the eyeball and support his retina that was undetectable, followed by a laser treatment that flashed the lasers into a precise pattern that basically sealed the fluid out of the places it shouldn't be. When we got the unexpected bill a month later, we owed about $8000 as our copay portion and the tricky bastards give you separate bills for the anesthesia, and the surgeons and whatever else they can so that you have to meet a deductible for each one, as opposed to having one deductible for the whole procedure.

    Obamacare has helped me to get a much better policy for a lot less money. So first and foremost insurance has ruined many doctors by making them stop being a dedicated healer and start looking up what each individuals policy will pay for and having to hire a staff to handle paperwork. My doctor also says they will pay very slowly and are always making "mistakes" that just happen to be in their favor all the time. Second problem is drug companies who figured out that the money is in treatment, not cures (apologies to Chris Rock). 

    My Dad was diagnosed with prostate cancer when I was 17 after ignoring symptoms for a year. He was a tough guy like that and he wasn't going to take a day off for that. So by the time treatment started, it was all over and not good. He had a group of doctors who were amazing, one of whom was a legend at Hahnemann in PA and a recognized visionary/pioneer in hematology. Long story just a bit shorter, they brought him back from the brink of death three times putting him into remission and giving him 7 or 8 years more to see his first grandchild, me graduate college, etc.

    Insurance took care of all the bills, because  in the 70's early 80's policies still did that. One of my current doctors is the son of one of my Dads doctors and he is just as dedicated and great. he got fed up with being a slave to insurance companies and went to a concierge model with some modifications to make it affordable. I pay a fee to get access to him 24/7 and on visits he spend all the time he wants and needs with me. He still bills insurance for testing and things other than his work. He has a 650 patient capacity and cut off anyone who didn't respond before he reached the limit. This is what allows him to give us all the time he can. The fee is quite reasonable at $1400/year for all of my needs and he sees any children under 26 for no charge under my membership.

    So there are dedicated doctors who really go above and beyond and find ways to give patients what they need in spite of the insurance assholes and drug cos. Another of his tricks is to give medicine from Sorry for the ramble and I hope I made sense, but I just had a procedure done yesterday that I had done 8 years ago in a hospital which had me laid up for a few days, this time one hour in his office feeling better 36 hours later and hoping the abscessed cyst I had removed was infected with a regular old staph and not MRSA. I am taking extra strong antibiotics and pain killers so excuse me if I am a bit scattered in my thoughts, but hopefully made my point that good docs are the key and still exist.

  156. Craig's


    Are you coming to Vegas?

    Lots to talk if you are…, medicine.

    Deductibles, co pays, insurance and doctors and hospitals….and yes, patients too.

  157. Maya1 
    September 25th, 2014 at 12:08 am | Permalink Tweet thisIgnore this user


    Thank you for that confirmation.

    Got out of the spreads with stock at $102… Now will see if Jan spreads look interesting at some point. 

    Dang, this new iOS8- the cursor keeps going back to the beginning when I hit 'enter' 

    Again! Frustrating! Anyone else having same problem since upgrading or iOS8 on the ipad?

    September 25th, 2014 at 12:14 am | Permalink Tweet thisIgnore this user

    Aapl/iph 6    

    So far, not impressed with the 6. A little too big to handle with one hand…Plus, some apps are acting funny.

    the darn thing is slippery, easily dropped because of the rounded edges. I preferred the brick shape of the 5S.

    Looks and feels like a Samsung, or HTC OR whatever phone you want to compare. 

    Anyone else with their thoughts?



    I think I will be going back to the 5S after a few days.



  158. Maya, my high school daughters, ever the trend-setters, were saving their iPhone upgrades for the 6.  After they handled their friends' phones they echoed what you said, especially about being too wide for them, and upgraded to newer 5's.  So I wonder if the upgrade wave will run out of steam based on word of mouth…

  159. Good Morning.

    Phil, I have been trying to keep my hands off my BTU butterfly but I have to ask about the Jan. 15 $18 put sold when the position was opened.  It is showing a heavy loss and has only .14 in premium left to gain if I understand it correctly.  With the option train only going to Jan 16 I am unable to roll out and down without spending money.  What is your advice in this situation.  I am considering waiting until close to expiration when 2017 leaps should be available (?) and, hopefully, the stock has found a floor.

  160. Good morning!  

    Asia wasn't down too badly and Europe is mixed with Germany and UK flat and France, Italy and Spain up half a point.  

    Our Futures are up just a tiny bit and, looking at the big chart, we need Dow 17,000 to be retaken (+55) and S&P 1,976 (50 dma), which is +10 so 0.5% before we get excited about a move back up at all!  

    Oil is back to test $93 but tricky to play into the weekend and suicide ahead of the GDP, where anything less than 4.2% will be a big disappointment.  

    • Japan -0.88%.
    • Hong Kong -0.38%.
    • China +0.11%.
    • India +0.60%.
    • London -0.05%.
    • Paris +0.67%.
    • Frankfurt +0.51%.

    500 hours/Scott – No way, I think 10,000 hours is a very good approximation (5.5 hours a day for 5 years, 3 hours for 10 years) for the AVERAGE person to get proficient at something.  That's all Gladwell was saying.  Epstein is talking about athletics, where natural ability comes more into play but still he says:

    For his part Epstein agrees that practice helps perfect, but finds the evidence to be far more nuanced and complex, arguing that "drastically different amounts of practice … will be required for similar outcomes." Epstein adds, "somehow, the 7,000-to-40,000-hours rule just doesn't have the same ring to it" (p. 23).

    CNN/ZZ – That's just some consultant telling them that focus studies preferred the nodding to the blank looks they used to have while waiting for the satellite feed.  You might think it looks dumb because you are actually paying attention to the content but the average American prefers people to look engaged.  Keep in mind news is nothing more than a show that is put on by the Billionaires to tell you how to think and get you to buy things.   

    Check out this CNN gem:  Two reporters pretending to be at remote locations when they are actually both in the same parking lot:


    Iran/ZZ – One can only hope…

  161. Maya- Unfortunately I will not be able to attend. I have mentioned before that my youngest son has autism and at 6'3" 260 lbs. my wife can't handle him alone. So, I usually only travel when my older children can get time off and come help or in July when he goes to a summer program for 6 weeks that teaches him to live independently and go to work every day. I am terribly disappointed too because I really would like to meet all of the posters here who seem like an intriguing bunch of intelligent, opinionated (without being obnoxious or condescending most of the time), and well spoken people. Not so easy to find in this age of instant gratification and me first attitudes. Usually this results in groups where misinformation is used to gain an advantage, or whatever it takes to beat the other guys. I love the one for all, all for one vibe here, sharing your best ideas and helping each other work together for a common goal, to be successful investors! Wow, lots of words to say no, not coming. Sorry, I will try to dial back the wordiness in the future, but I do get fired up here. 

  162. Good basic principle, Scott.  

    Doctors/Crags – I'm sorry, you are totally right.  MOST doctors are hard-working, caring people but the BUSINESS of medicine sucks and the insurance companies are simply evil.  Unfortunately, there are some doctors who seek to profit off the suffering of others but certainly not the majority.  Sadly, it's when you run into serious problems that you meet more and more of them.  

    One of the deciding factors in selling my company (100 people) in 2004 was the rising cost of medical care.  I always paid for top-level health care with 100% coverage and no deductibles and the costs were climbing every year and I could see, going forward, that it would become impossible to offer, which I morally objected to.  In fact, that was actually what led me to getting more active politically – when I looked into the system and found out who was really at fault (hint – not the Democrats). 

    Even with the best medical plan, or maybe BECAUSE he had the best medical plan, oncologists would attack my Dad like vultures.  There was even a huge fight at the hospital because one oncologist stole my Dad from another – really sick stuff.  With my step-mother, on the other hand, I had a similar experience to yours as we had wonderful people who kept her alive for a good decade after she was first given 6 months to live.  

    We're all going to be prejudiced by the experiences we have with the system, of course.  I was dumbfounded when I found out it was costing $70,000 a month to keep my step-father alive in dialysis (all day on the machine with chronic kidney failure).  In the last few months, only my older brother (2nd oldest of 4) wanted to keep my Dad alive – my Dad sure didn't want it but, as a family, we couldn't bring ourselves to override him.  Those are the kind of crushing decisions they SHOULD have "death panels" for…

    You're welcome Maya, nice exit!  I'm not having problems with iOs but I don't write much on my IPad, mostly just for browsing the Web and I'm not much of a texter either.  Good point about the 6 being "slippery", that's kind of silly but I guess a case would fix that.  Anyway, I'm happy with my 5 and not likely to change it until there's something really compelling other than "bigger".  Smaller I would buy in a heartbeat – a phone the size of a pen would be great, I think, maybe with a roll-out screen made of Willow glass.

    Actually, how about if the pen phone just had a long display on one side (mostly working by voice) but, if you look into the top it would be like when you look in a video camera's eye-piece and you'd see a fairly full screen?  That would be cool.  

    iPhone/MrM – Interesting.  Jackie hasn't been pining for a 6 the way she went crazy about a 5.  I was thinking it's because she's a couple of years older and has accepted the fact that she won't get one until long after I do but maybe it's because she actually doesn't care – I'll have to ask her.  

    BTU/Butterfly Sibe – The Jan $18 puts are sucking at $6 but, at this point, they can't hurt us further as we own the 2016 $18 puts.  I'm waiting for more strikes to come out but we're going to split it to probably the April something and something else for $4 so we'll take a $2 charge (and we sold the Jan puts and calls for $4 and roll to something like the short $12 calls (March are $1.30) and $15 puts (March are $3.20) so we pick up at least $1.50 in premium.  If we do that 4 times next year, that's +$6, even if we never hit our target.  That's kind of liberating since BTU is down to $12, so 50% more downside is survivable.  

    Meanwhile, please remind me as we should buy back the dead Dec $16 call and sell the Jan $12 call ($1.10) to knock off a bit of the loss between now and then.  What that does, is drop $1.10 in our pocket and we already sold the $18 puts so the net of anything between $12 and $18 is still $6, so all we're effectively doing is cutting 18% off of what we already owe.  

    LOL Craigs, sorry you won't be coming.  Glad to see our mission statement is working though:


    Thanks MrN! Teaching men to fish is the point of this site – the idea is you get good and bring trades to the group and after a while we have 1,000 sharp people who watch the market and bring opportunities to each other – that’s better brainpower than all but the biggest trading houses. In this crazy market, it’s easy to make money but when things go back to normal, we won’t be able to just pick hundreds stocks and make money on them. There’s a lot of hard work involved in trading normal markets and that’s what I want us to have – a world class team of traders who work like a family because we can learn to trust each other and play off each other’s strengths. Nothing makes me happier than seeing you guys making good decisions like that!

  163. Phil,

    Thanks for the BTU perspective.  Futures are not looking very strong to me. Would you recommend adding protection today if we do not have a broad, convincing rally?