Courtesy of Mish.
Curve Watcher’s Anonymous notes some interesting reactions in the treasury bond market following a string of good job reports.
Today the jobs numbers once again beat expectations: Nonfarm Payrolls Rose by 248,000 and the unemployment rate fell to 5.9%.
In seven out of the last eight months, jobs rose by over 200,000. Last month was the exception, but even then, the initial job report was revised up 69,000 to +180,000.
In light of such purportedly strong data, especially with the Fed tapering ending this month and expectations across the board of fed hikes, yield on the long bond should be rising.
The yield curve also should be steepening, at least if one believes in the recovery. Let’s take a look to see what is actually happening.
30-Year Treasury Yield
Note: The above chart is off by a factor of 10. At the time I snapped that chart, the 30-year treasury yield was 3.143%
Yield on the 30-year long bond shot up on the job report but is now in the red for the day. This is not what one would expect following a strong jobs report.
Nonetheless, one day does not prove much. Let’s take a look at the 5-year and 30-year treasuries over time.
30-Year and 5-Year Treasury Yields Since 2010
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