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Wednesday, July 24, 2024

Flip Floppin’ Thurday – Draghi and Williams Top Us Off


Flip, flop & fly
I don't care if I die
Flip, flop & fly
I don't care if I die
Don't ever leave me, don't ever say goodbye – Joe Turner

It's deja vu all over again!  

Please see Tuesday's "1,975 or BUST!" post and you will be all caught up on our battle plan for Thursday.  Remember – I can only tell you what is going to happen and how to make money trading it – the rest it up to you…  

Those DXD calls we disussed in Tuesday's post were cashed out ahead of the Fed with 100% gains in just two days.  Today, we're right back to the extact $24.52 DXD was at Tuesday morning, and the calls are back to our 0.60 entry after topping out at $1.27 yesterday (up 111%).   

We made the call to get out right at the beginning of our 1pm Live Trading Webinar (sorry, Members Only) but, FOR FREE – in yesterday's morning post – we also called a very wise exit to our TZA spread (up 190%) and flipped long on the /TF futures at 1,070 and those finished the day well past our 1,080 goal – all the way back to 1,100 for a $3,000 per contract gain.  That's in a single day folks!  

This morning, in our Live Member Chat Room (and you can join us here before the prices go up next week), we took short positions on the indexes with me saying to our Members in a 6:41 Alert that was sent out via Email as well and, for good measure, it was tweeted out (follow us here) and posted on our Facebook page (follow here):

Clearly we can short /TF at 1,100 with a stop above or /NQ 4,040 or /ES 1,965 or /YM 16,900 simply stopping out if any two of those go higher.  On the other side, Oil can be played long at $87.25 (again) and gasoline at $2.30 since it's Thursday.  

As you can see, at 8:25, our shorts are up 59 points on the Dow ($295 per contract), 9 points on the S&P ($450 per contract), 20 points on the Nasdaq ($400 per contract) and 7 points on the Russell ($700 per contract) – and we're happy to take that money and run ahead of the bell, as it's more than enough to pay for our Egg McMuffins.

SPX WEEKLYWe do expect the markets to go a bit higher and we can even go long on /ES (S&P Futures) IFF they break over 1,960 again and that should be confirmed by /YM (Dow Futures) going over 16,900 and /NQ over 4,025 and /TF over 1,095 – if all those go well, then maybe we can take a crack at 1,975 again but – another failure and DOWN WE GO!  

We predicted a 1% bounce in the indexes yesterday morning and we got almost 2%, which would be a strong bounce per our fabulous 5% Rule™ – though only almost.  We NEED to see that 1,975 line retaken today or back to bear we go!  

The Dollar is coming back this morning in anticipation of Draghi waving the Free Money Wand in his 11am speech at the Brookings Institute.  Of course it's silly to think that Drahgi will make a major policy announcement at 11am, into the EU market close at 11:30 while speaking to an American audience but hope springs eternal among the bulls and we will be very happy to take their bullish bets.  

As we noted on Monday and discussed in yesterday's Webinar, the tide turns decidedly bearish tomorrow morning with Philly Fed Governor and Uber Hawk, Plosser, giving a speech at 9am, followed by the slightly less hawkish Esther George (KC) at 1pm with Hawk Kings Fisher (Dallas, 1:30) and Lacker (Richmond, 3pm) closing out the week on a sour note.  

As I said, it's the same bearish trade ideas we had on Tuesday from essentially the same positions so we'll see if we can make another 100% on a DXD move in our Short-Term portfolio.  As to our Long-Term Portfolio – this is why we use the Short-Term Portfolio to protect it – those positions came back as quickly as they fell and, because we had our hedges – there was no need to panic out of anything.  

That's how you make trading fun AND profitable – even in these insane markets! 

154633 600 Economic stimulus of Europe cartoons



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