Posts Tagged ‘Draghi’

Flip Floppin’ Thurday – Draghi and Williams Top Us Off

SPY DAILY

Flip, flop & fly
I don't care if I die
Flip, flop & fly
I don't care if I die
Don't ever leave me, don't ever say goodbye – Joe Turner

It's deja vu all over again!  

Please see Tuesday's "1,975 or BUST!" post and you will be all caught up on our battle plan for Thursday.  Remember – I can only tell you what is going to happen and how to make money trading it – the rest it up to you…  

Those DXD calls we disussed in Tuesday's post were cashed out ahead of the Fed with 100% gains in just two days.  Today, we're right back to the extact $24.52 DXD was at Tuesday morning, and the calls are back to our 0.60 entry after topping out at $1.27 yesterday (up 111%).   

We made the call to get out right at the beginning of our 1pm Live Trading Webinar (sorry, Members Only) but, FOR FREE – in yesterday's morning post – we also called a very wise exit to our TZA spread (up 190%) and flipped long on the /TF futures at 1,070 and those finished the day well past our 1,080 goal – all the way back to 1,100 for a $3,000 per contract gain.  That's in a single day folks!  

This morning, in our Live Member Chat Room (and you can join us here before the prices go up next week), we took short positions on the indexes with me saying to our Members in a 6:41 Alert that was sent out via Email as well and, for good measure, it was tweeted out (follow us here) and posted on our Facebook page (follow here):

Clearly we can short /TF at 1,100 with a stop above or /NQ 4,040 or /ES 1,965 or /YM 16,900 simply stopping out if any two of those go higher.  On the other side, Oil can be played long at $87.25 (again) and gasoline at $2.30 since it's Thursday.  


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Thrilling Thursday – Can Super Mario Save the Markets?

SPY 5 MINUTEWheeeeeee - What a ride!

As with skiing, a nice drop can be lots of fun – if you are ready for it.  If not, things can get broken…  Supports were broken yesterday as we lost the 200-Day Moving Average on the NYSE (10,600) and the 50 dma on the Dow (16,930), Nasdaq (4,500) and the S&P (1,975).  

We lost the Russell ages ago, when we made our Death Cross so "told you so" on that one.  As I said at the time (9/16):

Of course, we've been telling you for weeks now that the markets were toppy but at least now it's getting obvious.  The Fed may still pull a rabbit out of its ass and goose the markets once again but I very much doubt anything is going to stop the eventual correction now.  Delay, maybe – stop, no.

Our trade idea that day in our morning post that day was:

If, however, you buy just $2,500 worth of the of the TZA Oct $13/16 bull call spread at $1 (25 contracts), they will pay you back $7,500 if TZA goes up about 15% (just a 5% move up in the RUT) AND they don't lose all their money until TZA is down 10% (a 3% move up in the RUT).  

That trade is already 110% in the money and on it's way for a $5,000 per unit gain (200%) – a very nice way to hedge what is, so far, less than a 10% pullback in our indexes.  What we do, once these hedges go in the money (if we're still bearish) is add another layer of hedges at higher strikes and we put a stop on our original hedges to lock in those gains.  That's where we are now as we begain playing for a bounce yesterday in our Live Member Chat Room (you can join us HERE).  

This morning, we're waiting on Draghi to wave his magic stimulus wand and stop the market slide but I'm not sure he can
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Friday August Finally – Dressing that 2,000 Window

Saved by the bad news!  

August has been a spectacular month in which we ignored the most bad news ever ignored by a species that is still not extinct.  With any luck, an asteriod will head straight for us next month and we can rally the markets another 5% in anticipation of more Fed easing on impact.  The asteriod struck the other side of the Earth this morning as Russia Invaded Ukraine and Euro Zone Inflation plunged to 0.3%, miles below the 2.0% target considered "healthy".  

This is, of course, GREAT NEWS, because it means Super Mario is free to go ahead and do something – like he always says he will do but never does.  That doesn't stop people from believing it because they WANT TO BELIEVE – they want to think someone is going to save them and make all their hardships go away.  11.5% of the people in Europe are still out of work, double the rate in the US.  Over 25% of the people under 25 are out of work, about the same as the US.  These are horrific figures – of course people are eager to hear the words of a potential savior.  

Since it's Friday, we're not going to debate the merits or discuss what a farce it all is – we've done that this week.  Today we'll talk about making money.  

On Tuesday, in the morning post, I suggested the TNA Sept $72.50/76.50 bull call spread at $2, selling the Sept $68 puts for $2.  10 of those would not have cost you a penny (since it netted out to $0), though about $7,500 in margin on the short puts.  Today the spread is $2.50 and the short puts are $1.15 for net $1.35 or +$1,350 in 3 days, which is an 18% gain on the committed margin despite the fact that TNA has essentially gone nowhere.

I don't point this out to brag, we have plenty of trade ideas that have done much better – I point this out because it was a free trade idea, right in the morning post which anyone could have done and it…
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Monday Market Target – S&P 2,000 or BUST!

SPY 5 MINUTEAs usual on Friday, more volume = more selling

Still, there's no reason to expect volume to come back and that means the markets can go back to drifting higher when the bars are lower and that can get us all the way to S&P 2,000, but over that line is going to be a tough trick

Our weekend reading from our Member Chat Room produced the usual litany of woes with the usual suspects:  

ISIS, Putin, China, Gaza, Ebola and Draghi causing the usual damage aided by newcomers like an earthquake in San Francisco, a volcano in Iceland, a nuclear scare in Belgium - but none are as scary as French President and Austerity Radical, Francois Holland, dissolving his Government because they disagreed with him.  

Screen Shot 2014 08 22 at 2.32.24 PMIn interviews with the French press and speeches at a Socialist gathering Sunday, Economy Minister Arnaud Montebourg and Education Minister Benoît Hamon said forcibly reducing budget deficits as the economy wilts is driving up unemployment, fueling political extremism and risks tipping the economy into recession.  "The priority must be exiting crisis and the dogmatic reduction of deficits should come second," Mr. Montebourg said in an interview with Le Monde.

The criticism came at a difficult moment for the French president, who said earlier this week he will push ahead with a three-year plan to cut public spending to fund tax cuts for business even as the economy stagnates – so he fired them all!  As in the US, Businesses continued cutting investment in the second quarter despite receiving the first payouts from labor-tax reductions.

"Promising to get the economy going again, on the path to growth and full employment, hasn't worked. Honesty obliges us to acknowledge this," Mr. Montebourg said in a speech to supporters. "The role of the economy minister and any statesman in his place is to confront the truth—even it is cruel—and propose alternative solutions," he added.

8-22-2014 5-24-48 PM Yellen


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Testy Tuesday – 1,920 or Bust!

SPX WEEKLYThat's 2 closes over 1,920.  

It's almost enough to make us regret cashing out our Long-Term Portfolio last week. We didn't expect to call a perfect top, when you have a large portfolio it can take days to unwind your positions and, despite the very low volume – we'd like to thank all the retail bagholders who bought our shares at top dollar in the last few days.  

Thanks Dave and Bill and Jack and Joe and – well, that's about it as volume is so low, there can't be more then 3 or 4 guys trading in this market!  

Last June started off with low volume too – as well as record highs – and then we dropped 5% into July.  We're simply taking our 119% cash and waiting for the dip – is that so bad?  

SPY 5 MINUTEYesterday was only the 3rd lowest volume day of the year and the action was wonderfully fake around a PMI report that was released, revised and then revised again – all in the same morning!  

In the end, they decided on 56.4, which was in-line with consensus but not before giving us a glimpse on how quickly this market can fail on bad news.  

In our Live Member Chat Room, we took full advantage of the over-reaction on the bad news to go against the panicking sheeple and buy TNA (3x bullish ETF on the Russell) in a 9:57 Alert I sent out to our Members.

That trade was so obvious I tweeted it out as well (you can follow me here) saying:

Those calls came in cheaper (because our timing was perfect) at $1.50-$1.40 and they topped out at $1.70 and finished the day at $1.61 but should be cheap again this morning, which is why I'm mentioning them now as they make an excellent upside hedge – in case the market does better than we think.  

Since we sidelined $598,000 last week ($98,000 in profits in less than 6 months), we decided to spend $3,000 on 20 of the above contracts – that way…
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Zero Hedge

Iran Suffers Most Daily Death Toll Since COVID-19 Outbreak Began; NY Adds 3 More States To 'Mandatory Quarantine' List: Live Updates

Courtesy of ZeroHedge View original post here.

Summary:

  • NY releases latest numbers, adds 3 more states to quarantine list
  • Trump touts COVID-19 mortality rate improvement
  • GOP moves to test all convention attendees
  • Worker 'revolt' at University of Georgia
  • Beijing reports 8 foreign cases
  • South Korea reports 40+ new cases
  • Melbourne enters 6-week lockdown
  • India passes 700k cases
  • Iran sees record jump in deaths
  • South Africa tops 200k

* * *

Update (...



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Phil's Favorites

Up and Down

 

Up and Down

Courtesy of 

This stat from @SentimentTrader blew me away:

“The S&P 500 fund, SPY, has been up at least 0.5% for 5 straight days. That’s tied for the longest streak since its inception.”

I wasn’t taken aback because of how strong the markets have been recently, but that streak of five days sounded really small to me. I almost couldn’t believe it was right. But after looking at the data, the shock wore off.

The S&P 500 has gained >0.5% on 28% of all days (going back to 1993), so the likelihood of...



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Biotech/COVID-19

Is the COVID-19 pandemic cure really worse than the disease? Here's what our research found

 

Is the COVID-19 pandemic cure really worse than the disease? Here's what our research found

The economic impact of coronavirus restrictions can also take a human toll. mladenbalinovac via Getty Images

Courtesy of Olga Yakusheva, University of Michigan

The Research Brief is a short take about interesting academic work.

The big idea

The coronavirus pandemic catapulted the country into one of the deepest recessions in U.S. history, leaving millions ...



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ValueWalk

Error-Ridden PPP Data Show Taxpayer Funds Funneled to the Wealthy & Well-Connected

By Anna Peel. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Yesterday, the Trump administration released a limited collection of data about recipients of Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) assistance. The program has been rampantly mismanaged from the start, allowing big businesses and publicly-traded companies to exploit the program with little transparency or oversight. The data released yesterday has been riddled with errors, raising questions about the PPP’s integrity. All the while, actual small businesses – especially those run by people of color – have been left to struggle or close entirely.

Q2 2020 hedge fund...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Here's Why QQQ and Large Cap Tech Stocks May Rally Another 10%!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

The long-term trend for large-cap tech stocks remains strongly in place.

And despite the steep rally out of the March lows, the index may be headed 10 percent higher.

Today’s chart highlights the $QQQ Nasdaq 100 ETF on a “monthly” basis. As you can see, the large-cap tech index touched its lower up-trend channel support in March at (1) before reversing higher.

It may now be targeting the top of the trend channel at (2), which also marks the 261.8 Fibonacci extension (based on 2000 highs and 2002 lows). That Fib level is $290 on $QQQ.

If so, this upside target for $QQQ is still 10% above current prices. Stay tuned!

This article was first written ...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results. The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Saturday, 14 March 2020, 05:51:16 PM

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Comment: Crash in perspective - its Bad, and not over!



Date Found: Saturday, 14 March 2020, 07:49:29 PM

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Comment: The Blood Bath Has Begun youtu.be/bmC8k1qmM0s



Date Found:...

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The Technical Traders

Big Funds to Pull Money OUT of Stocks: 2nd Wave to Hit Economy

Courtesy of Technical Traders

TOPICS IN THIS INTERVIEW:

-Big funds to pull money out of markets.

-Falling dollar to really start to benefit gold

-Gold miners showing signs of life.

-$2,000 gold will change people’s mindsets in gold.

-Gold or silver-backed currency will send metals through the roof.

Get Chris Vermeulen’s Trades – Click Here

...

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Lee's Free Thinking

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

 

These Charts Show COVID 19 Is Spreading in the US and Will Kill the Economy

Courtesy of  

The COVID 19 pandemic is, predictably, worsening again in much of the US. Only the Northeast, and to a lesser extent some Midwestern states, have been consistently improving. And that trend could also reverse as those states fully reopen.

The problem in the US seems to be widespread public resistance to recommended practices of social distancing and mask wearing. In countries where these practices have been practi...



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Digital Currencies

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

 

Blockchains can trace foods from farm to plate, but the industry is still behind the curve

App-etising? LDprod

Courtesy of Michael Rogerson, University of Bath and Glenn Parry, University of Surrey

Food supply chains were vulnerable long before the coronavirus pandemic. Recent scandals have ranged from modern slavery ...



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Members' Corner

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

 

Coronavirus, 'Plandemic' and the seven traits of conspiratorial thinking

No matter the details of the plot, conspiracy theories follow common patterns of thought. Ranta Images/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Courtesy of John Cook, George Mason University; Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge; Stephan Lewandowsky...



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Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga

  • Data on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for March will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
  • US Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March is scheduled for release at 9:45 a.m. ET.
  • The ISM's non-manufacturing index for March will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is scheduled for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
...

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Feb. 26, 1pm EST

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Phil will discuss positions, COVID-19, market volatility -- the selloff -- and more! 

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Mapping The Market

How IPOs Are Priced

Via Jean Luc 

Funny but probably true:

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