Courtesy of Declan.
There wasn’t much for bulls to work with by the time markets closed Friday. I was somewhat surprised to see the S&P give up 2,009 breakout support without too much of a struggle. It finished at its 50-day MA which is also near psychological support of 2,000. Volume also climbed in confirmed distribution. Monday offers another chance for a bounce, but there is growing supply overhead which has the potential to kill any sustained Santa Rally.
The Nasdaq also suffered losses, but it does at least have support levels to work with. The question is whether it can hang on in the face of broader selling from other markets.
Nasdaq breadth metrics are weakening from a swing high, but not from overbought conditions,which would be a better marker for a top.
The semiconductor index has suffered in sympathy, although its losses have the look of a ‘bull flag’. Watch for a potential breakout.
The Dow finished right on breakout support, which itself is a converged Fib level. With the S&P undercutting its breakout level it’s hard to see the Dow holding out, but while it’s there these levels can’t be ignored.
The Russell 2000 finished on trading range support. The index reached a major low in October, and is holding up better to the selling experienced by other indices. Another swoon lower could offer a second opportunity for long term buyers.
For Monday, look for rallies in the Dow and Russell 2000. Sellers have the best chance in the S&P, although the short-side is likely limited in the short term.
