Archive for 2014

Video of Rebel Buk Launchers Headed Back to Russia? No – Images From Ukraine-Held Territory Since May

Courtesy of Mish.

Update: The video clip I displayed earlier today was likely the downing of an An-30 last month not Malaysian flight MH17. Once again it is very difficult to sort through all the propaganda. Both sides are involved.

Jacob Dreizin, a US citizen who speaks both Russian and Ukrainian provided this update three hours ago.

Hello Mish,

On Friday, the Daily Mail, one of the major UK tabloids carried photos and video of what was alleged to be a rebel “Buk” launcher heading back to Russia.  The article carried a claim from some Ukrainian source that the launcher was missing several missiles after having shot them at the Malaysian 777.  The article was prominently linked to the Drudge Report, and so was probably viewed by several million people.

Today, this meme made it into Uncle Sam’s official narrative, as per the following New York Times excerpt:

On the CBS program “Face the Nation,” Mr. Kerry referred to a video that the Ukrainians have made public showing an SA-11 unit heading back to Russia after the downing of the plane with “a missing missile or so.”

The video referenced by the New York Times was, in fact, posted on the Facebook account of the Ukrainian Interior Minister. The allegation was that the launcher was crossing the border with Russia.

However, going by the billboard and other features of the scenery, Russian bloggers and news sources claim to have identified the road in the video as having been taken in or near the town of Krasnoarmeisk (“Krasnoarmiysk” in Ukrainian), which has been under Kiev’s control since May.

In fact, the billboard is supposedly advertising a Krasnoarmeisk car dealership.  Also, one of the structures in the background is said to be a construction materials store on Gorkii Street, Krasnoarmeisk.

Please note that this town is (very roughly) 120 kilometers from the Russian border and 80 kilometers from where the Malaysian 777 went down.  And again, it has been under Kiev’s control since May.

At least one other clip of the “Russian Buk” that has been made available also suggests that the Ukrainians are showing their own equipment. I’m still working on researching that one for you.

Jacob

Video in Question



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White House ‘Quietly’ Exempts 4.5 Million People In 5 “Territories” From Obamacare

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

As WSJ reports, last week’s geopolitical chaos and distraction was ideal for a news dump, and the White House didn’t disappoint: On no legal basis, all 4.5 million residents of the five U.S. territories were quietly released from ObamaCare. It seems the costs of healthcare soared in these five territories due to uneconomic mandates – which woul dhave been a disaster PR-wise for the administration and so, under cover of catastrophe, WSJ reports all of a sudden last week HHS discovered new powers after “a careful review of this situation and the relevant statutory language,” that enabled them to ‘selectively exempt’ American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico, Northern Mariana Islands, and Virgin Islands from Obamacare. And all while vacationing…

As WSJ reports,

The original House and Senate bills that became the Affordable Care Act included funding for insurance exchanges in these territories, as President Obama promised when as a Senator he campaigned in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and other 2008 Democratic primaries. But the $14.5 billion in subsidies for the territories were dumped in 2010 as ballast when Democrats needed to claim the law reduced the deficit.

 

As a consolation, Democrats opened several public-health programs to the territories and bestowed most of ObamaCare’s insurance regulations, which liberals euphemize as “consumer protections,” such as requiring insurers to accept all comers and charge the same premiums regardless of patient health.

However, costs soared as no insurer would touch them…

These uneconomic mandates promptly caused insurance rates to soar and many insurers to flee the territorial markets. You can’t buy any policy at any price in the Mariana Islands. So the territories have spent the last two years beseeching HHS for a regulatory exemption.

So time to change the rules… from this…

As recently as last year, HHS instructed the territories that they “have enjoyed the benefits of the applicable consumer protections” and HHS “has no legal authority to exclude the territories” from ObamaCare.

To this…

Laws are made by Congress, but all of a sudden last week HHS discovered new powers after “a careful review of this situation


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    Chinese probe into PetroChina’s Canadian operations deepens

    Fri, Jul 18 · PTR

    • A corruption probe in China reaches deeper into PetroChina’s (NYSE:PTR) operations in Canada’s oil industry, as a fourth high-ranking company official involved in oil sands deals is now believed to be under investigation.
    • The first three of the executives had frequent dealings with Athabasca Oil (OTCPK:ATHOF), which partnered with PTR in 2010 in a $5B joint venture to develop the MacKay River and Dover oil sands projects.
    • Athabasca is awaiting a $1.23B payment from PTR after it exercised an option to sell its remaining 40% of the Dover project, and ATHOF investors are nervous that PTR will not honor the payment, which was expected by the end of June.
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RJ Reynolds Fined $23.6 Billion

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Pivotfarm.

 


RJ Reynolds has been ordered by a Florida jury this Friday to pay a total of $23.6 billion to the widow of a chain-smoker that had filed a suit against the company. It’s possibly the largest single plaintiff payout in history for a tobacco manufacturer to date.

Cynthia Robinson of Pensacola began the long process of suing the company in 2008. Her husband had died in 1996 of lung cancer after smoking between two and three packets of cigarettes per day for 18 years. It was claimed that her husband had become addicted to cigarettes and despite attempts had failed to manage to quit. She claimed that RJ Reynolds had conspired to conceal the addictive nature of cigarettes and had failed to highlight the dangers of smoking. Robinson’s lawyers also accused RJ Reynolds of being negligent in informing customers of the dangers pf the consumption of tobacco.

• The jury deliberated for 11 hours on Friday 18th July 2014 and the verdict returned granted compensation of $7.3 million to the plaintiff as well as $9.6 million to her husband’s child from a previous marriage. 
• The jury went on to deliberate for a further 7 hours before it then awarded Robinson the punitive sum of$23.6 billion
• Robinson’s lawyer stated: “RJ Reynolds took a calculated risk by manufacturing cigarettes and selling them to consumers without properly informing them of the hazards”. 
• RJ Reynolds issued a statement calling the verdict “far beyond the realm of reasonableness and fairness”. 
• The company also stated that the company is “confident that the court will follow the law and not allow this runaway verdict to stand,” adding that the damages were “grossly excessive and impermissible under state and constitutional law”.
• In the USA today there are still half a million people that die from cigarette-related illnesses every year.
• But, only 18% of US citizens actually smoke these days, which is a huge drop from the 42% of the 1960s.

Robinson argued that the verdict was not as RJ Reynolds states “a runaway verdict” but rather that the jury was courageous to take the decision. The jury refused to accept the argument used by RJ Reynolds that the victim had in fact smoked out…
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Three Charts Of The Week: Money Printing Is Not Bringing Prosperity To Main Street

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by David Stockman of Contra Corner blog,

Furious money printing by the world’s major central banks is not generating real growth and prosperity—–but professional economists never seem to get the word. As shown below, the 2014 outlook for global real growth has been marked down sharply since early 2013. Back then, of course, Abenomics and massive QE by the BOJ was supposed to cause the Japanese economy to soar; Draghi’s “anything it takes” bromide was going to jolt Europe out of its slump; and the elixir of QE3 was certain to finally cause the US economy to attain “escape velocity”.

Its not working out that way. In Japan, import inflation is soaring, real wages are still falling and the economy is entering a new slump in Q2 owing to a tax increase that was unavoidably necessary to pay for its runaway fiscal largesse. In Europe, the Bank Of Italy, Draghi’s home base, has now marked its forecast of 2014 real GDP growth to essentially zero. And in the US after the disastrous first quarter, along with what is shaping up to be a tepid second quarter, real growth will not achieve any kind of velocity, “escape” or otherwise; in fact, consensus real GDP has already been marked down to 1.7%—the lowest rate of expansion since the financial crisis. Accordingly, it is only a matter of time before the global forecast for 2014 shown below below is marked down even further.

 

 

It is no mystery as to where all the central bank “stimulus” is going. Since early 2013 fully fourth-fifths of the 40% rise in the S&P 500 is due to multiple expansion, not earnings growth from a tepid economy. This is clearly the effect of massive central bank injections of cash into Wall Street and other financial markets, yet it is especially perverse under current circumstances. Given the massive instabilities and headwinds afflicting the global economy—from the house of cards in China, to the failing retirement colony in Japan, the welfare state fiscal crunch in Europe and the faltering growth of breadwinner jobs and real investment in productive assets in the US—-the capitalization rate of future earnings should be down-rated. That is, future corporate earnings are now worth far less than the historical PE norm, not more. Accordingly, the massive expansion of PEs shown below is yet another expression of…
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Sector Detector: Bulls remain unfazed by borderline Black Swans

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Despite a highly eventful week in the news, not much has changed from a stock market perspective. No doubt, investors have grown immune to the daily reports of geopolitical turmoil, including Ukraine vs. Russia for control of the eastern regions, Japan’s dispute with China over territorial waters, Sunni vs. Shiite for control of Iraq, Christians being driven out by Islamists, and other religious conflicts in places like Nigeria and Central African Republic. But last Thursday’s news of the Malaysian airliner tragically getting shot down over Ukraine, coupled with Israel’s ground incursion into Gaza, had the makings of a potential Black Swan event, which in my view is the only thing that could derail the relentless bull march higher in stocks.

Nevertheless, when it became clear that the airliner catastrophe was most likely a mistake born of incompetence among the rag-tag rebels rather than the start of an orchestrated terrorist attack on the West, I fully expected a recovery on Friday, which we got. And so the upward march of stocks continues.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the top-ranked sectors.

Market overview:

Thursday’s brief scare gave the S&P 500 its first single-day decline of more than 1% in three months, while the CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) surged 32%, which was its biggest single-day percentage increase since April 2013. Moreover, NYSE volume increased 20% over its daily average for the month. Friday’s bounce saw the Dow Jones Industrials Index regain the 17,000 level, but the Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index was not able to get back above 21,000. Also, both the Dow and S&P 500 are encountering resistance as they re-approach their 52-week highs, and the Russell 2000 small caps are facing resistance from its 50-day simple moving average. I still think there may be more downside in store before summer is over.

Continued strength in U.S. stocks is being driven by expectations of continued low interest rates, a big jump in GDP growth, and improving corporate earnings. Indeed, all major central banks are…
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Is This The Best Investing Strategy For The New “Free Lunch” Normal?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

In a world in which there is no longer any risk, in which the Fed itself is the Chief Risk Officer of the S&P 500 itself (because either the Fed and central banks will keep on injecting “modest” liquidity and keep rates at zero or below for the indefinite future, or jump right back in with another massive, $1 trillion + liquidity dump the second the S&P dares to suffer a 10% correction), there is no longer any need to hedge as we have shown for the past two years. In fact, the best strategty for the past two years has been to actively go long the most shorted stocks. But as GMO’s Ben Inker shows, there may be one other strategy for the new “Free Lunch” new normal that avoids buying stock altogether and which has less volatility, a lower beta and a higher Sharpe ratio than merely buying stocks, while generating the same return: namely constantly selling 1 month ATM puts, rolling, and then selling again. Then again, judging by the ridiculous low VIX, perhaps everyone has already figured this out…

From GMO’s Ben Inker:

Free Lunches and the Food Truck Revolution

Over the past year or so, there has been a welcome change to the culinary landscape of the Boston financial district. After two decades of wandering to largely the same old haunts for lunch, I am now faced with a whole new set of inexpensive and tasty choices literally outside our door, changing daily as the food trucks perform their mysterious nightly dance. And while part of me may worry about the general advisability of having a burning wood-fired oven built into a small truck and another part may worry about the long-term impact to my weight and arteries from eating the pizza that comes out of said oven, my taste buds are thrilled, and my wallet has no complaints either. We at GMO have been accused at times of believing that either the world never changes or that when it does change, those changes are generally bad. Well, it may just be the dumplings talking (available on Fridays on the Greenway by Rowes Wharf, $8 for four dumplings along with fried rice and homemade Asian slaw, $1 more if you want to add a spring roll with ginger soy…
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Market Madness: Geopolitical Chaos Sparks Biggest “Dash-For-Trash” In 17 Months

Market Madness: Geopolitical Chaos Sparks Biggest "Dash-For-Trash" In 17 Months

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

Since The Fed's extension of Operation Twist (and subsequent unveiling of QE3) in 2012, the stocks of "weak balance sheet" companies are up over 100%. In that same period, the stock prices of "strong balance sheet" companies are up a mere 43%.

 

The "dash-for-trash" that the Fed's financial repression forced upon an investing public has enabled the worst companies to not only survive (creating yet another mal-investment boom) but squeezed their share prices to thrive. The reason we bring this up is simple…

 

This last week of exuberant equity market performance in the face of unimaginable geopolitical possibilities saw "weak balance sheet" stocks outperform "strong balance sheet" stocks by their most in 17 months. In other words, amidst all the chaos and uncertainty 'investors' drove the biggest dash for trash since March 2013.

*  *  *

Because what's the first thing you do when the world pushes towards the edge of World War III… buy the junkiest stocks and sell the best quality ones… Of Course!!

And the reasons Goldman say it will continue… well we discussed them before – what a farce.





“Buying The Car Was The Worst Decision I Ever Made” – The Subprime Auto Loan Bubble Bursts

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

It has been over six months since we first highlighted the growing deterioration in the quality of auto loans and mentioned the 's' word (subprime) as indicative that we learned nothing from the financial crisis. Since then, auto loans (and especially subprime in the last few months) have surged to record highs; and most concerning, recently has seen delinquencies and late payments spike. The reason we provide this background is that, thanks to The NY Times, this story is now hitting the mainstream media as subprime-quality car buyers (new and used) realize the burden they have placed on themselves thanks to exorbitantly high interest rates (and a rapidly depreciating 'asset'). As one car 'owner' exclaimed, "buying the car was the worst decision I have ever made."

 

As The NY Times reports, Auto loans to people with tarnished credit have risen more than 130 percent in the five years since the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis, with roughly one in four new auto loans last year going to borrowers considered subprime — people with credit scores at or below 640.

 

Deja vu all over again…

And, like subprime mortgages before the financial crisis, many subprime auto loans are bundled into complex bonds and sold as securities by banks to insurance companies, mutual funds and public pension funds — a process that creates ever-greater demand for loans.

Exorbitant interest rates… (but still demand?)

The New York Times examined more than 100 bankruptcy court cases, dozens of civil lawsuits against lenders and hundreds of loan documents and found that subprime auto loans can come with interest rates that can exceed 23 percent.

 

The loans were typically at least twice the size of the value of the used cars purchased, including dozens of battered vehicles with mechanical defects hidden from borrowers. Such loans can thrust already vulnerable borrowers further into debt, even propelling some into bankruptcy, according to the court records, as well as interviews with borrowers and lawyers in 19 states.

Will we never learn…?

In another echo of the mortgage boom, The Times investigation also found dozens of loans that included


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A “Tone-Deaf” Obama Mocked By The NYT For Vacationing While The World Burns

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

When it comes to mocking president Obama, there is no easier or more effective way than focusing on his vacation/golfing schedule. The conservative Washington Examiner did just that last week, before the latest Malaysian Airlines disaster, when it reported that “It’s going to be hot tubs, basketball, tennis and golf for the first family this summer, having set plans for a 16-day vacation in Martha’s Vineyard, Mass., on a $12 million, 10-acre forested estate on the southwestern corner of the island.

Reports from the Bay State indicate that President Obama and his family will vacation August 9-24 at the 8,100-square foot, beachfront home of a Democratic donor that includes a pool, hot tub, basketball and tennis court. It will be new digs for the first family, who have summered on tony Martha’s Vineyard every year of Obama’s presidency, except in 2012 when he was running for reelection. The Vineyard Gazette reported that the White House has no major or public events planned for the almost three weeks, typical at this stage of a presidential vacation.

That and golf of course.

 

However, all of that is to be expected, and sure enough, Obama can and will parry such mockery as political attacks coming from the right, while remarking how strong the US economy has become under his watch, how many millions of waiters and bartenders thousands of manufacturing jobs he has created, and of course, how the stock market hits a record high now on a daily basis.

Things get dicier, however, when Obama is mocked and virtually attacked for his vacation plans by none other than that flag-bearer of leftist ideology, the New York Times itself. Which is precisely what just happened in “Sticking to His Travel Plans, at Risk of Looking Bad

As smoke billowed from the downed Malaysian jetliner in the fields of eastern Ukraine on Thursday, President Obama pressed ahead with his schedule: a cheeseburger with fries at the Charcoal Pit in Delaware, a speech about infrastructure and two splashy fund-raisers in New York City.

 

The potential for jarring split-screen imagery was clear. Reports of charred bodies and a ground-to-air missile attack from Eastern Europe dominated


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Phil's Favorites

Overpriced tech IPOs sell grand visions but aren't worth their valuations

 

Overpriced tech IPOs sell grand visions but aren't worth their valuations

rblfmr / Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of John Colley, Warwick Business School, University of Warwick

The year of the tech IPO is 2019. Uber went public on May 10 with a US$82.4 billion valuation. Fellow ride-sharing app Lyft floated in March with a U$24 billion valuation and Pinterest had a US$10 billion IPO in April...



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Zero Hedge

Futures Slides As Trade Tensions Escalate

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

S&P futures were lower on Wednesday as investors sought safety in bonds, the Japanese yen and Swiss franc in muted trade amid renewed worries over the U.S.-China spat after reports Washington is considering cutting off the flow of American technology to as many as five Chinese companies including Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology, the world's largest supplier of video surveillance products, expanding the US crackdown on China beyond Huawei to include world leaders in video surveillance. The dollar and 10Y yield were unchanged ahead of today's FOMC Minutes.

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Emerging Markets About To Submerge If 3-Year Support Breaks?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Are Emerging Markets about to “Submerge” and head a good deal lower? What they do at (3) will go a long way in answering this question!

Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) has been lagging the broad market for the past 15-months. They hit their 50% retracement level of the last year’s highs and lows and falling resistance at (2) recently. The weakness of last has EEM trading below its 200-MA line.

EEM has spent the majority of the past 3-years inside of rising channel (1), which reflects that this trend remains up. The weakness of late has it testing the bo...



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Insider Scoop

Amgen To Buy Danish Collaborator Nuevolution For $167M

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Amgen, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) took a logical step forward in buying a preclinical biotech it has been collaborating with since 2016. 

What Happened

Amgen announced Wednesday an agreement to buy Copenhagen-based Nuevolution for $167 million.

Th...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap May 18, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

China – U.S. trade talk continued to dominate the week.   A heavy selloff Monday was followed by 3 up days, with Friday moderately down.

On Monday, Chinese officials announced retaliatory tariffs against the U.S., hitting $60 billion in annual exports to China with new or expanded duties that could reach 25%.

Then on Wednesday:

The Trump administration plans to delay a decision on instituting new tariffs on car and auto part imports for up to six months, according to media reports.

...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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