Archive for 2014

Swing trading portfolio – week of September 22nd, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

Swing trading virtual portfolio

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.</p></body></html>

 





Sarkozy the Self-Appointed Savior Has “No Choice”, Must “Reconquer” Voters to Save France

Courtesy of Mish.

Arrogance cost former French president Nicolas Sarkozy the election in 2012.

Judging from statements he made today, he’s just as arrogant, if not more so today. He even brags of a bigger Facebook audience than Francois Hollande and his UMP party opponents, ignoring the fact that 60% of the electorate does not want him to run again.

Self-Appointed Savior Has “No Choice”

The Financial Times reports Sarkozy Pledges to Win Voters Back from French Far-Right.

In a television interview, the former centre-right president who failed to get re-elected in 2012, said: “I am going to reconquer those French people,” referring to the voters who in May helped the FN become the country’s most successful party in EU elections.

Mr Sarkozy, who on Friday confirmed his long-awaited return to politics less than three years after vowing to never again return to public life, said that his reappearance was due to necessity.

“I had no choice,” he said.

Less Energy, More Wisdom, More Facebook Hits

The Guardian reports Nicolas Sarkozy Sets Out Comeback Plans for France’s UMP party on TV

The former French president Nicolas Sarkozy was given a prime-time television news slot to explain his plans after announcing his return to frontline politics. Sarkozy set out his platform for the race to head the opposition UMP party, which will hold a hotly contested leadership vote in November.

For Sarkozy: The Return Part II, he was given 45 minutes to reintroduce himself to the French public.

If viewers had expected a changed, wiser and less confrontational Sarko, they were to be disappointed. Asking the presenter – twice – if he imagined that the former French leader had “just two brain cells”, Sarkozy launched into a vigorous defence of his five years in power and a vehement attack on the state of France and the current Socialist government.

Saying he had “perhaps less energy, but more wisdom”, Sarkozy explained that he felt duty-bound to return not through personal ambition, but because of the “lack of hope, the anger and the absence of vision” that François Hollande’s government had imposed on his compatriots.



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Michael Parenti on Globalisation, Terrorism, and Conspiracy

Michael Parenti on Globalisation, Terrorism, and Conspiracy

Courtesy of Jesse's Cafe Americain

“In societies that worship money and success, the losers become objects of scorn. Those who work the hardest for the least are called lazy. Those forced to live in substandard housing are thought to be the authors of substandard lives. Those who do not finish high school or cannot afford to go to college are considered deficient or inept.

No system in history has been more relentless in battering down ancient and fragile cultures, devouring the resources of whole regions, pulverizing centuries-old practices in a matter of years, and standardizing the varieties of human experience.

Official Washington cannot tell the American people that the real purpose of its gargantuan military expenditures and belligerent interventions is to make the world safe for General Motors, General Electric, General Dynamics, and all the other generals.

The worst forms of tyranny, or certainly the most successful ones, are not those we rail against but those that so insinuate themselves into the imagery of our consciousness, and the fabric of our lives, as not to be perceived as tyranny.

The guiding principle of ruling elites was--and still is: when change threatens to rule, then the rules are changed.”

Michael Parenti

 





We Are Living In A State Of Keynesian “Bliss”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Mark Jeftovic via Rebooting Capitalism blog,

Original Artwork by Joe Deagnon / ChickenOutfit.com

Original Artwork by Joe Deagnon / ChickenOutfit.com

John Maynard Keynes is the grandfather of all modern mainstream economic thought.  Richard Nixon was famously attributed as saying, “We are all Keynesians now” whilst slamming shut the gold window and launching the era of global fiat money. (Nixon didn’t really say this, it was actually Milton Friedman)

The phrase came back in vogue in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis when neo-Keynesians like Paul Krugman called for, and got, massive government and Central Bank intervention into the global economy in order to “save it”.

Back in 1930, Keynes looked out into the future and saw that with the proper management of the economy, monetary policy and the like, the world could attain a type of utopian stasis:

Keynes, working in 1930, expected growth to come to an end within two to three generations, and the economy to plateau. He referred to this imaginary state of equilibrium as “bliss”.
– Nick Gogerty, “The Nature of Value”

In his essay “The Economic Possibilities of Our Grandchildren” Keyne’s imagined the big challenges of our days in the 21st century would be what to do with all that extra leisure time and how to achieve fulfillment since by now the quest for wealth and material gain would become more or less unfashionable or even obsolete.

“Thus for the first time since his creation man will be faced with his real, his permanent problem – how to use his freedom from pressing economic cares, how to occupy the leisure, which science and compound interest will have won for him, to live wisely and agreeably and well.”

Granted, Keynes did say this would happen if mankind avoided any calamitous wars and if there was no appreciable increase in population. Two more flawed base assumptions there could not have been.

But this hasn’t stopped the world’s conventional economists, not to mention the political and policy-making class (a.k.a The Overlords) from embracing the uniquely Keynesian notion that if you just know which macro-economic levers to pull, and how much and for how long, and when to do it; then…
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Presenting The Two-Tier Market: Mapping Europe’s Microwave Tower Network

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

When Michael Lewis ended “Flash Boys”, he left the door open on what the sequel to the blockbuster may well be: an expose on the even newer, faster paradigm of trading, one involving microwave signals and line-of-sight towers, which transmit information and trading signal even faster than fiberoptic cables, which in a world in which milliseconds and increasingly, nanoseconds, are critical, is all that matters. In short, a market in which making trading decisions has nothing to do with fundamental or technical analysis, and everything to do with spending tens if not hundreds of millions to simply be faster than the “other guy” and to be able to frontrun the broader order flow with results such as Virtu’s “Holy Grail” 1,237 of 1,238 profitable, and perfectly legal, trading days.

As a preview of what Michael Lewis is likely working on right now, tomorrow, the Sniper In Mahwah blog will post a long story detailing what the author believes are the bulk of not all of the towers used by the HFT players. As the author reveals to us, “I think some HFT players won’t like the map I’ll post (because they want to stay “secret”), but I have found all of them only by using online/public documents. So easy.”

“Easy” indeed, as long as one has the motivation to do some digging, which inexplicable virtually no financial journalists do.

So without further ado, the image below is a screen capture of the Google Earth map file which will be released officially tomorrow on his blog, with public documents linking each tower to its owner. The creator of the map thinks that it “should make some noise,” although considering the vast financial resources and power over politicians the HFT lobby has, we wouldn’t be surprised if, quite quickly, this latest story is promptly disappeared.

After all, the last thing retail investors need to be reminder of every day, is that there is a rigged market for frontrunning, predator HFTs, and then a market for everyone else, i.e., the prey.

Source: Sniper In Mahwah





PBoC joins other major central banks with unconventional monetary policy action

PBoC joins other major central banks with unconventional monetary policy action

Courtesy of SoberLook.com

Softer than expected economic growth in China (see discussion) has finally spurred the PBoC into action. However, rather than undertaking asset purchases that would inject reserves into the overall banking system, the PBoC forced liquidity directly into state-owned banks.

NY Times: – With industrial production growing at the slowest pace since the worst of the global financial crisis and foreign direct investment in a tailspin, China appears to have taken the unusual step of using monetary stimulus in an attempt to forestall further economic weakness. 

China’s central bank has lent 100 billion renminbi, or $16.2 billion, to each of the country’s five main, state-controlled banks, bankers and economists said Wednesday, although the central bank and the five banks involved stayed silent. The seemingly stealthy decision to inject a total of $81 billion into the banking system this week came as the Chinese economy, like many economies in Europe, has slowed over the summer, although still expanding at a pace that would be the envy of most countries around the world.

This is probably the least effective QE-style action, as state-owned lenders are unlikely to efficiently deliver capital into the private sector. But the fact that the PBoC has taken this action tells us this could be the start of a longer monetary stimulus effort. The markets are not expecting a near-term economic improvement and instead pricing in a prolonged battle to accelerate growth. China's SHIBOR rate swap curve has become more inverted than a month ago with expectations of further rate declines.
 

Some form of stimulus was already being priced in, which is in part what generated the recent stock market rally.
 

Source: Investing.com

Now the PBoC joins other major central banks in expanding "unconventional" monetary policy efforts. The impact of such actions on economic growth however remains highly uncertain, particularly in the face of softening property markets and weaker corporate balance sheets.
 

Source: Reuters


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Ukraine on the brink

Ukraine on the brink

Courtesy of SoberLook.com

While we see a great deal of media coverage of Ukraine-related geopolitical risks, there hasn't been sufficient discussion about the dire economic and fiscal conditions the nation is facing. Writing about men in masks fighting in eastern Ukraine sells far more advertising than covering the nation's economic activity. However it's the economy, not the Russian army that has brought Ukraine close to the brink. And just to be clear, some of Kiev's economic and fiscal problems were visible long before the spat with Russia (see post from 2012).

Ukraine is now in recession. Deep economic ties with Russia have resulted in painful adjustments in recent months. The nation's exports are down some 19% from last year in dollar terms and expected to fall further. A great example of Ukraine's export challenges is the Antonov aircraft company known for its Soviet era large transport planes as well as other types of aircraft.
 


As the military cooperation with Russia ended, Antonov was in trouble. It had to take a $150 million hit recently by not delivering the medium-range An-148 planes to the Russian Air Force. The Russians will find a replacement for this aircraft, but in the highly competitive global aircraft market, it's far less likely that Antonov will find another client.

Here are some key indicators of Ukraine's worsening situation:

1. The nation's GDP is down almost 5% from a year ago and growth is expected to worsen.
 

2. Ukraine's retail sales are falling at the rate we haven't seen since the financial crisis.
 

3. And industrial production is collapsing.
 

4. The most immediate concern however is the nation's currency, which has been trading near record lows in spite of currency controls. In fact Friday's fall in hryvnia was unprecedented (over 11%), as Kiev fails to stem capital outflows.
 

Intraday exchange rate (source: Bloomberg)


Those who have spend any time in Ukraine during the winter know how harsh the…
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Global Leading Indicator Plunges To Economic “Slowdown”, Goldman Warns

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Just two short months ago, Goldman Sachs was exuberant over the 'expansion' signals that the firm's Global Leading Indicator Swirlogram was exhibiting as it confirmed their 'economists' expectations that the Keynesian hockey-stick of hope would once again re-appear majestically in H2 2014 and lift America (and the world) to escape velocity. That dream is over. Confirming the collapse of world GDP expectations, Goldman's GLI has plunged into 'slowdown' with momentum starting to slow. Perhaps, just perhaps, as we noted previously, this time is not different and the annual cycle of extrapolating early-year hope is rapidly turning to late-year disappointment.

 

As Goldman explains…

Our September Advanced GLI came in at 3.0%yoy, down from last month’s reading of 3.1%yoy. Momentum decreased to 0.25%mom from 0.29%mom last month.

 

 

The September Advanced reading places the global cycle in the ‘Slowdown’ phase, characterised by positive but decelerating momentum.

Which explains this…

 

And confirms concerns that this time is no different, as we noted previously,

For the past five years there has been a very clear and significant cycle to US macro data – a slight rise to start the year, notable weakness into the middle of the year, a rapid recovery into the fall, then generally flat to year-end. A year ago, we explained this cycle appears to be created by government agencies need to spend, spend, spend their budgets out ahead of fiscal year-end (Sept).

 

 

This year has been no different, aside from the knee-jerk higher in macro data – somewhat shocking in its magnitude to 'every' economist with 3, 4, and 5-sigma beats in many data – came a little earlier but to the same level of past year's exuberance (as perhaps Ex-Im concerns, Fed concerns, and election concerns sparked earlier-than-usual spend-down by agencies).

*  *  *

Of course, if this plays out… it's 'perfect' for the Fed to extend dovish language and investors to pile on into stocks on the back of the bad news… or without QE, is Fed talk no longer enough?





ISIS Slams “Mule Of The Jews” Obama, Demands Killing Of “Disbelievers” Especially “Filthy French”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Having released some 46 Turkish hostages, because "Turkey refused to agree to the US demand for 'active support of the coalition'," ISIS has come out swinging in its first 'official' statement since President Obama unveiled his 'strategy' for "degrading and destroying" them, with a call for all followers of Allah to make the coalition campaign the "last crusader campaign," and calls Obama "vile", more foolish than Bush, and a "mule of the Jews." Warning Americans and Europeans that "you will pay a great price, when your economies collapse," ISIS blasts Kerry, "the uncircumcised old geezer," for his "false arguments." The statement concludes by telling ISIS followers, "if you can kill a disbelieving American or European – especially the spiteful and filthy French – or an Australian, or a Canadian, or any other disbeliever from the disbelievers waging war, including the citizens of the countries that entered into a coalition against the Islamic State, then rely upon Allah, and kill him in any manner or way however it may be."

As Al-Monitor reports, Forty-nine staff members of the Turkish Consulate in Mosul (three of whom are Iraqi nationals) who were taken hostage June 11 by the Islamic State (IS) were freed at 6:30 a.m. Sept. 20. Details of the operation are slowly emerging.

Interesting reports surfaced on the Takvahaber news website, which is identified as the IS mouthpiece in Turkey. According to one Takvahaber report, which was based on the Twitter account of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the IS caliph, the decision to release the hostages was personally approved by Baghdadi after Turkey refused to agree to the US demand for “active support of the coalition.”

 

 

In addition to the key question of whether the hostages were rescued through an operation or handed over by IS to Turkish officials, another question that gained prominence is, “Why now?” Why did IS give up the strategic ace it was holding against Turkey just now that the United States is setting up a coalition and is about to launch a military offensive?

And then ISIS issues its first post-Obama Strategy statement…

Select excerpts from the ISIS Statement (source):

Rejection of the truth, mockery of it, belying the people of truth, using falsehood in argumentation, plots,…
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The Fallacy Of US Dollar “Strength”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com,

You’d think that the US dollar has suddenly become strong, and the chart below of the other three major currencies appears to confirm it.

The US dollar is the risk-free currency for international accounting, because it is the currency on which all the others are based. And it is clear that three months ago dollar exchange rates against the three currencies shown began to strengthen notably.

However, each of the currencies in the chart has its own specific problems driving it weaker. The yen is the embodiment of financial kamikaze, with the Abe government destroying it through debasement as a cover-up for a budget deficit that is beyond its control. The pound had been poleaxed by the Scotish independence campaign, plus an ongoing deferral of interest rate expectations. And the euro sports negative deposit rates in the belief they will cure the Eurozone’s gathering slump, which if it develops unchecked will threaten the stability of Europe’s banks.

So far this has been mainly a race to the bottom, with the dollar on the side-lines. The US economy, which is officially due to recover (as it has been expected to every year from 2008) looks like it’s still going nowhere. Indeed, if you apply a more realistic deflator than the one that is officially calculated, there is a strong argument that the US has never recovered since the Lehman crisis.

This is the context in which we must judge what currencies are doing. And there is an interpretation which is very worrying: we may be seeing the beginnings of a major flight out of other currencies into the dollar. This is a risk because the global currency complex is based on a floating dollar standard and has been since President Nixon ended the Bretton Woods agreement in 1971. It has led to a growing accumulation of currency and credit everywhere that ultimately could become unstable. The relationship between the dollar and other currencies is captured vividly in the illustration below.

The gearing of total world money and credit on today’s monetary base is forty times, but this is after a rapid expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet in recent years. Compared with the Fed’s monetary base before the Lehman crisis, world money is now nearly
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Zero Hedge

Auto Shares Surge As Fiat, Renault Confirm Merger Talks

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

With President Trump in Japan for a state visit and most of Europe headed to the polls to vote in the quinquennial EU Parliamentary elections, there was enough news to keep market watchers occupied during what was supposed to be a quiet holiday weekend in the US. 

But on top of these political headlines, on Saturday afternoon, the news broke that Italian-American carmaker Fiat Chrysler had approached France's Renault with a merger proposal that would leave the shareholders of each carmaker with half of the combined company, in a tie-up that would create the world's third-largest au...



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Phil's Favorites

Trump and the problem with pardons

 

Trump and the problem with pardons

Courtesy of Andrew Bell, Indiana University

As a veteran, I was astonished by the recent news that President Trump may be considering pardons for U.S. military members accused or convicted of war crimes. But as a scholar who studies the U.S. military and combat ethics, I understand even more clearly the harmful long-term impact such pardons can have on the military.

My researc...



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Insider Scoop

Jefferies Sees 60-Percent Upside In Aphria Shares, Says Buy The Dip

Courtesy of Benzinga.

After a red-hot start to 2019, Canadian cannabis producer Aphria Inc (NYSE: APHA) has run out of steam, tumbling more than 31 percent in the past three months.

Despite the recent weakness, one Wall Street analyst said Friday that the stock has 30-percent upside potential. 

The Analyst

Jefferies analyst ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

DAX (Germany) About To Send A Bearish Message To The S&P 500?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the DAX index from Germany about to send a bearish message to stocks in Europe and the States? Sure could!

This chart looks at the DAX over the past 9-years. It’s spent the majority of the past 8-years inside of rising channel (1), creating a series of higher lows and higher highs.

It looks to have created a “Double Top” as it was kissing the underside of the rising channel last year at (2).

After creating the potential double top, the DAX index has continued to create a series of lower highs, while experiencing a bearish divergence with the S...



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Chart School

Brexit Joke - Cant be serious all the time

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Alistair Williams comedian nails it, thank god for good humour! Prime Minister May the negotiator. Not!


Alistair Williams Comedian youtube

This is a classic! ha!







Fundamentals are important, and so is market timing, here at readtheticker.com we believe a combination of Gann Angles, ...

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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream - the battle is on to bring them under global control

 

Cryptocurrencies are finally going mainstream – the battle is on to bring them under global control

The high seas are getting lower. dianemeise

Courtesy of Iwa Salami, University of East London

The 21st-century revolutionaries who have dominated cryptocurrencies are having to move over. Mainstream financial institutions are adopting these assets and the blockchain technology that enables them, in what ...



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Biotech

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA as you've never seen it before, thanks to a new nanotechnology imaging method

A map of DNA with the double helix colored blue, the landmarks in green, and the start points for copying the molecule in red. David Gilbert/Kyle Klein, CC BY-ND

Courtesy of David M. Gilbert, Florida State University

...



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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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