Archive for 2014

Here’s Why Trendlines are Your New Best Friend, Part 3

Here's Why Trendlines are Your New Best Friend, Part 3

See how trendlines help you make calculated trading decisions

Courtesy of Elliott Wave International

Have you ever seen Donald Duck play pool? Trust us, it isn't pretty.

An expert pool player, on the other hand — well, he can just look at the billiards table and imagine lines drawn out, marking the trajectory the cue ball must take to make the shot.

Now, what if you could just look at a financial market's price chart — and see actual lines drawn out that aim straight for the "pocket" of opportunity?

According to our resident Monthly Commodity Junctures editor and chief commodity analyst Jeffrey Kennedy, you can.

All you need to do is implement a tried-and-true tool of technical analysis known as trendlines. (And let's just say, what Paul Newman is to the game of pool in the Hustler, Jeffrey Kennedy is to the field of technical analysis in real life.)

In part 1 of our series, we showed you how Jeffrey used trendlines to identify a major break-out point in cocoa back in May 2014. Part 2 played the video of Jeffrey's April 2014 corn forecast, where he used trendlines to fortify his bearish wave count — right before corn prices embarked on a powerful sell-off to 4-year lows.

Today, we're returning to that April 2014 Monthly Commodity Junctures video to show you 3 more examples of how Jeffrey used trendlines to "call the pocket" in coffee, sugar, and the U.S. dollar. Roll the tape!

Of coffee, Jeffrey said: "We can expect a counter-trend move back to near the previous fourth wave extreme, roughly say between 170 and 160.

Coffee prices indeed sold off in three waves (i.e. counter-trend action) to the "previous fourth wave extreme" after breaking through the lower boundary of the trend channel:

Of sugar, Jeffrey said: "Once complete, wave (Y) of the larger fourth wave will give way to additional selling to back below the actual 2014 low."

Here's what happened to sugar prices after they fell…
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Brean Capital Initiates Coverage On Zogenix

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related ZGNX
Events for the Week of Nov. 17-21, 2014
Zogenix Reports Zohydro ER Shows Sustained 12-Hour Pain Relief

Brean Capital initiated coverage on Zogenix, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZGNX) Monday with a Buy rating and $2.50 price target.

Analyst Difei Yang commented that “Zogenix has commercialized a controversial product, Zohydro ER, and we believe the market under-appreciates the medical value this product brings to patients and pain-treating specialists. Despite the heated debate and intense negative coverage from the media, we are impressed that the product is performing well during early launch days.

"Low-risk pipeline projects offer free options, in our view, and we believe 2015 offers multiple catalysts to lift the shares out of their currently depressed state. We view the current valuation as attractive and risk/reward profile as favorable. Our $2.50 target price is solely based on the valuation of Zohydro ER and no consideration was given to pipeline drugs Brabafen and Relday.”

The analyst note concluded that “Upcoming catalysts that may lift shares from their current depressed state: 1) sNDA approval of Abuse Deterrent Formulation of Zohydro ER with target date of January 31, 2015; 2) Zohydro ER uptake; 3) potential business development deal announcements to either expand revenue or reduce costs; 4) successful capital raise; and 5) start of Phase III trials for Dravet syndrome during Q3 2015.”

Zogenix closed Monday at $1.23, down 1.60 percent.

Latest Ratings for ZGNX

Date Firm Action From To
Dec 2014 Brean Capital Initiates Coverage on Buy
Aug 2014 Oppenheimer Maintains Outperform
Jul 2014 Stifel Nicolaus Maintains Buy

View More Analyst Ratings for ZGNX
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: Brean Capital Difei YangAnalyst Color Price Target Initiation Analyst Ratings

Alibaba Continues To Win Wall Street's Favor

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Alibaba Continues To Win Wall Street's Favor

Related BABA
What Options Traders Are Watching In The Final Week Of 2014
Hedge Funds And Alibaba: Who's Been Bullish?
Tech Predictions for the New Year (Fox Business)

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE: BABA) continues to win the favor of Wall Street analysts roughly three months following its ballyhooed initial public offering.

Shares are up nearly 13 percent since the September 18 IPO versus about 6 percent for the S&P 500.

Of about 36 analysts covering the shares, 32 currently rate it at Buy or equivalent, while four maintain Hold ratings.

Cantor Fitzgerald's Youssef Squali last month said the China e-commerce company "has an unfair competitive advantage" and dominates its market.

Related Link: The Opportunity & Risks For Alibaba In 2015

And it's a market likely to grow. About 300 million people in China shop online, or about half the country's Internet users, while more than half the country's population continues to lack Internet access.

"The company's outsized growth and margin profiles should support higher valuation over time," Squali said.

Susquehanna's Brian Nowak applauds the company's lack of warehouses and delivery services that burden the operations of companies like Amazon.

"We like BABA's competitive positioning and asset-light operating structure," Nowak said, adding those factors will result in "industry-leading profitability.”

Columbia University Business Professor Bruce Greenwald told the New York Times that Alibaba's valuation relative to its earnings is "scary" and that investors attach "lots of hype" to the company's story.

But Brean Capital's Fawne Jiang sees Alibaba as "a core holding in the China Internet space" and expects continued rapid growth.

Alibaba's revenue for the quarter ended September 30 grew 54 percent to $2.74 billion from the year-earlier period, while profit fell 39 percent on higher costs for employee stock compensation.

Latest Ratings for BABA

Date Firm Action From To
Nov 2014 Cantor Fitzgerald Maintains Buy
Nov 2014 HSBC Initiates Coverage on Overweight
Nov 2014 Bank of America Maintains Buy

View More Analyst Ratings for BABA
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: Brean Capital Brian Nowak Cantor Fitzgerald Fawne Jiang SusquehannaAnalyst Color Reiteration Analyst Ratings Best of Benzinga

Feltl and Company Downgrades xG Technology To Sell

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related XGTI
Feltl And Company Downgrades xG Technology On Backlog, Visibility And Dilution
Benzinga's Top Downgrades

Analysts at Feltl and Company downgraded xG Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: XGTI) from Hold to Sell.

The price target for xG Technology has been lowered from $1.00 to $0.35.

xG Technology shares have dropped 40.51% over the past 52 weeks, while the S&P 500 index has gained 13.45% in the same period.

xG Technology’s shares fell 15.21% to $0.80 at 12:20 p.m. ET.

Latest Ratings for XGTI

Date Firm Action From To
Dec 2014 Feltl & Co. Downgrades Hold Sell
Aug 2014 Roth Capital Initiates Coverage on Buy

View More Analyst Ratings for XGTI
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: Feltl And CompanyDowngrades Analyst Ratings

US Stock Futures Down; Crude Oil Rises

Courtesy of Benzinga.

US Stock Futures Down; Crude Oil Rises

Related GILD
CNBC's Stock Pops & Drops From December 26
Morning Market Movers
Making Money With Charles Payne: 12/22/14 (Fox Business)

Related ATHX
Athersys Finishes Enrollment of Phase 2 Study of MultiStem(R) Cell Therapy for Ischemic Stroke
Events for the Week of Oct. 13-17, 2014

Pre-open movers

US stock futures traded lower in early pre-market trade. Crude oil futures gained 1.19% to trade at $55.38 a barrel. Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 37 points to 17,975.00, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures fell 4.30 points to 2,079.90. Futures for the Nasdaq 100 index slipped 5.25 points to 4,305.00.

A Peek Into Global Markets

European markets were mostly lower today, with the Spanish Ibex Index falling 1.41%, STOXX Europe 600 Index dropping 0.29%. German DAX 30 index slipped 0.56%, French CAC 40 Index slipped 0.10% and London’s FTSE 100 Index rose 0.25%.

In Asian markets, Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average declined 0.50%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 1.82%, China’s Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.33% and India’s Sensex jumped 0.57%.

Broker Recommendation
Analysts at Morgan Stanley upgraded Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: GILD) from undefined to Overweight.

Gilead Sciences’ shares rose 1.92% to $95.59 in pre-market trading.

Breaking news

  • Athersys, Inc. (NASDAQ: ATHX) today announced that it has concluded patient enrollment of its Phase 2 clinical study involving administration of Athersys’ MultiStem^® cell therapy to ischemic stroke patients. To read the full news, click here.
  • Così, Inc. (NASDAQ: COSI) today announced the appointment of David Lloyd to the Company’s Board of Directors, effective January 1, 2015. To read the full news, click here.
  • Limited (NYSE: WBAI) today announced that Mr. Jeffrey R. Williams has been appointed as a new independent director, effective November 22, 2014. To read the full news, click here.
  • MagnaChip Semiconductor Corporation (NYSE: MX) today announced it has launched a research collaboration focused on developing innovative, cost-effective silicon magnetic bio-sensor technology capable of monitoring extremely rare cells in blood. To read the full news, click here.

Posted-In: Morgan Stanley US Stock FuturesNews Eurozone Futures Global Pre-Market Outlook Markets

D.A. Davidson Sees Nautilus As Well-Equipped For Long-Term Success

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related NLS
Use Bowflex, Bro? Here's How They're Disrupting The Supplements Industry
Top 4 Small-Cap Stocks In The Sporting Goods Industry With The Highest EPS Growth Forecast For Next 5 Years

In a report published Monday, D.A. Davidson analyst Andrew Burns reiterated a Buy rating and $18.00 price target on Nautilus, Inc. (NYSE: NLS).

In the report, D.A. Davidson noted, “We expect a positive 4Q with continued momentum into 2015. In recent weeks we hosted investor meetings with NLS management and studied the exercise equipment retail landscape to gauge the traction of NLS’ new and existing product lines. We are encouraged by management’s strong execution and long-term growth vision. On the retail front, our checks show continued strength of the Schwinn cardio line and broad availability of the new Nautilus line across most key retailer ecommerce platforms. We believe both the direct and retail segments will perform during the important 4Q-1Q sales period. Similar to the last two years, Nautilus should provide a favorable business update on 4Q trends at the upcoming ICR XChange conference (Jan. 12th-14th).”

Nautilus closed on Friday at $14.74.

Latest Ratings for NLS

Date Firm Action From To
Nov 2014 CRT Capital Maintains Buy
Nov 2014 Wunderlich Maintains Buy
Oct 2014 Wunderlich Initiates Coverage on Buy

View More Analyst Ratings for NLS
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: Andrew Burns D.A. DavidsonAnalyst Color Reiteration Analyst Ratings

Needham Downgrades 7 Semiconductor Stocks, Upgrades 1

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Needham Downgrades 7 Semiconductor Stocks, Upgrades 1

Related CAVM
Benzinga's Top Downgrades
Needham Downgrades Cavium To Hold

Related MTSI
Is M/A-Com Technology Solutions A Great Growth Stock?
MACOM Announces Definitive Agreement To Acquire BinOptics Corporation

Needham became “more cautious” on semiconductor stocks for 2015 and on Monday made several downgrades.

Analyst N. Quinn Bolton noted that following two years of outperformance, the risk-to-reward profile of the industry is now more balanced, which is reflected in the stocks.

Bolton cut ratings on six stocks from Buy to Hold:

Cavium Inc (NASDAQ: CAVM)
M/A-COM Technology Solutions Holdings (NASDAQ: MTSI)
MaxLinear, Inc. (NYSE: MXL)
RF Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: RFMD)
Skyworks Solutions Inc (NASDAQ: SWKS)
TriQuint Semiconductor (NASDAQ: TQNT)

Ambarella Inc (NASDAQ: AMBA) was lowered from Hold to Underperform and the stock fell over 5 percent in the pre-market amid the downgrade.

Inphi Corporation (NYSE: IPHI) was the one stock that Bolton upgraded; from Buy to Strong Buy. The stock recently traded at $16.55, up 6.6 percent.

Latest Ratings for CAVM

Date Firm Action From To
Dec 2014 Needham Downgrades Buy Hold
Dec 2014 Barclays Maintains Overweight
Dec 2014 FBR Capital Initiates Coverage on Outperform

View More Analyst Ratings for CAVM
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: N. Quinn Bolton NeedhamAnalyst Color Upgrades Downgrades Analyst Ratings Best of Benzinga

Must Watch Stocks for December 29, 2014

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Must Watch Stocks for December 29, 2014

Related BLIN
Earnings Scheduled For May 15, 2013
Bridgeline Signs Multi-Year Agreement with Large National Franchise for iAPPS ds Platform

Related ICE
Benzinga's Weekend M&A Chatter
New York Stock Exchange May be Put Up for Sale -NY Post
Fannie Job Posting Hints at NYSE Listing (Fox Business)

Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:

Wall Street expects Bridgeline Digital, Inc. (NASDAQ: BLIN) to post a Q4 loss at $0.06 per share on revenue of $6.04 million. Bridgeline Digital shares declined 5.74% to close at $0.50 on Friday.

The New York Stock Exchange may be put up for sale as early as next year, by its owner, Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE: ICE), according to the New York Post. Sources say ICE will with sell or spinoff the “Big Board” within a year. Intercontinental Exchange shares gained 0.07% to close at $221.88 on Friday.

Analysts expect LiveDeal, Inc. (NASDAQ: LIVE) to post a Q4 loss at $0.11 per share on revenue of $2.78 million. LiveDeal shares slipped 0.30% to $3.28 in after-hours trading.

Hedge fund Lion Capital has reportedly sent a letter to American Apparel, Inc.’s (NYSE: APP) Board of Directors on Sunday, requesting the retailer consider strategic options, according to the Wall Street Journal. Sources say options include a potential sale. American Apparel shares closed at $1.06 on Friday.

Posted-In: Stocks To WatchEarnings News M&A Pre-Market Outlook Markets Trading Ideas

The Utter Craziness Of Monetarism Is On Full Display

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Jeffrey P. Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners,

Why Can't Oil Be Oil?

For most commentary on the recent and sharp decline in oil prices, there is a serious ceteris paribus to it especially from those that don’t recognize that there are much deeper financial forces. The following is excerpted as an example of the closed system approach, as if there is a world of difference that can allow “decoupling.”

What matters is what’s causing prices to decline: an increase in productivity or a decline in economic activity. Only in the second case is there a serious danger that the Federal Reserve should try to respond to. Similarly, rising prices can be a sign that monetary policy is too loose, but can also reflect declines in productivity.

This is a tangential explanation to the second stage of oil price excusing. Some will “predict” that though demand has fallen, “unexpectedly” of course, it will not remain so weak for so long. This alternate but associated justification is that foreign demand, and only in discrete locales that are unrelated, is to blame as the US surges forward unobstructed (5% GDP and all that).

There are, however, two wrinkles worth noting. One is that although the fall in the price of oil doesn’t appear to reflect any weakness in the U.S. economy, weakness abroad may be a factor. But that’s a reason to loosen money elsewhere, not in the U.S. A second is that there is a reasonable argument that monetary policy in the U.S. has been a little too tight even leaving aside this price decline. If that’s correct, then some added pressure for loosening, even if that pressure is based on a mistaken worry, might not be such a bad thing.

And thus the utter craziness of monetarism is on full display, in that after arguing that declining oil prices are good for American consumers, they are also suggesting that monetary policy is “too tight”, and thus oil prices are contradictorily “too low.” That betrays the central aspect of this orthodox embracing of lower energy prices as nothing more than a shaky rationalization – they still are not comfortable with low prices but accept them…
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How To Stay Warm In Philadelphia – Burn Dollar Bills

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Apparently taking a page out of China’s book, Factually reports the Philadelphia Federal Reserve office (apparently aware of the worthlessness of their fiat currency) sends old currency to local power plants, where it’s burned for electricity. As WSJ reports, The Fed destroys more than 5,000 tons of U.S. currency a year – most of it once went to landfills, but the central bank has pushed for years to go green with all that green. It appears we have come a long way from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond’s 1953 annual report when it boasted it had “money to burn.”


From 1953…


As Gizmodo reports,

Philadelphia is literally burning money to keep the lights on. And that’s a good thing! They used to just shred it and send it to landfills, letting all that energy go to waste.



“Rather than just sitting in a landfill, it’s producing electricity for residents in the Delaware Valley, here in our district,” an official at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia proudly told the Wall Street Journal.


Other municipalities around the country have similar currency incineration programs, including Los Angeles County, where they burn as much as 500 tons of money per year. I suppose the image of burning money is a good reminder to turn the lights off when you leave a room. Your dollar bills are literally going up in smoke.

*  *  *


Zero Hedge

Americans' Economic Hope Has Collapsed

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Which came first, the confidence or the stock market rally?

One thing is for sure, the crash in stocks in December has crushed the hope of Americans that their economic future is going to be better under President Trump.

Overall confidence dipped to 58.1 - a 4-month low, but, U.S. consumers this month were the most downbeat on the economy since November 2016, a third straight drop after expectations reached a 16-year high just three months earlier, as the partial government shutdown wears on toward a fourth week.


more from Tyler

Kimble Charting Solutions

Triple Breakout Test In Play For S&P 500!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Is the rally of late about to run out of steam or is a major breakout about to take place in the S&P 500? What happens at current prices should go a long way in determining this question.

This chart looks at the equal weight S&P 500 ETF (RSP) on a daily basis over the past 15-months.

The rally from the lows on Christmas Eve has RSP testing the top of a newly formed falling channel while testing the underneath side of the 2018 trading range and its falling 50-day moving average at (1).

At this time RPS is facing a triple resistance test. Wil...

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Phil's Favorites

Brexit deal flops, Theresa May survives -- so what happens now?


Brexit deal flops, Theresa May survives -- so what happens now?

Courtesy of Victoria Honeyman, University of Leeds

As the clock ticks down to March 29 2019, all of the political manoeuvring, negotiating, arguing and fighting is coming to a peak. In the two and a half years since the 2016 EU referendum, views on both sides have hardened and agreement still seems as far away as it was the day after the referendum.

With Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement disliked by all sides, and voted down by an unprecedented majority in the House of Commons, everyone is wondering what can and should be done next?


more from Ilene

Digital Currencies

Crypto-Bubble: Will Bitcoin Bottom In February Or Has It Already?

Courtesy of Michelle Jones via

The new year has been relatively good for the price of bitcoin after a spectacular collapse of the cryptocurrency bubble in 2018. It’s up notably since the middle of December and traded around the psychological level of $4,000... so is this a sign that the crypto market is about to recover?

Of course, it depends on who you ask, but one analyst discovered a pattern which might point to a bottom next month.

A year after the cryptocurrency bubble popped


more from Bitcoin


D.E. Shaw Investment Calls For Leadership Change At EQT

By ActivistInsight. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Elliott Management has offered to acquire QEP Resources for approximately $2.1 billion, contending the oil and gas explorer’s turnaround efforts have done little to lift the company’s share price. The company responded and said that a thorough review of the proposition is imperative in order to properly act in the best interests of shareholders, “taking into account the company’s other alternatives and current market conditions.” The news came only a month after Travelport Worldwide agreed to sell itself to Siris Capital Group and Elliott’s private equity arm Evergreen Coast Capital for $4.4 billion in cash and two months after Athenahealth was bought by Veritas and Evergreen for $5.7 bi...

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Insider Scoop

UBS Says Disney's Streaming Ambition Gives It A 'New Hope'

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related DIS Despite Some Risks, Analysts Still Expecting Double Digit Growth From Communications Services In Q4 ... more from Insider

Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 13, 2019

Courtesy of Blain.

In last week’s recap we asked:  “Has the Fed solved all the market’s problems in 1 speech?”

Thus far the market says yes!  As Guns n Roses preached – all we need is a little “patience”.  Four up days followed by a nominal down day Friday had the market following it’s normal pattern the past nearly 30 years – jumping whenever the Federal Reserve hints (or essentially says outright) it is here for the markets.   And in case you missed it the prior Friday, Chairman Powell came back out Thursday to reiterate the news – so…so… so… patient!

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced that message Thursday during a discussion at the Economic Club of Washington where he said that the central bank will be “fle...

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Members' Corner

Why Trump Can't Learn


Bill Eddy (lawyer, therapist, author) predicted Trump's chaotic presidency based on his high-conflict personality, which was evident years ago. This post, written in 2017, references a prescient article Bill wrote before Trump even became president, 5 Reasons Trump Can’t Learn. ~ Ilene 

Why Trump Can’t Learn

Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore (...

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Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Reminder: We are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


Opening Pandora's Box: Gene editing and its consequences

Bacteriophage viruses infecting bacterial cells , Bacterial viruses. from

Courtesy of John Bergeron, McGill University

Today, the scientific community is aghast at the prospect of gene editing to create “designer” humans. Gene editing may be of greater consequence than climate change, or even the consequences of unleashing the energy of the atom.


more from Biotech

Mapping The Market

Trump: "I Won't Be Here" When It Blows Up

By Jean-Luc

Maybe we should simply try him for treason right now:

Trump on Coming Debt Crisis: ‘I Won’t Be Here’ When It Blows Up

The president thinks the balancing of the nation’s books is going to, ultimately, be a future president’s problem.

By Asawin Suebsaeng and Lachlan Markay, Daily Beast

The friction came to a head in early 2017 when senior officials offered Trump charts and graphics laying out the numbers and showing a “hockey stick” spike in the nationa...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"



Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:


·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union


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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>